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Tesla Daily - Live: Tesla Q3 Earnings Call 2026 (TSLA)

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在第三季度财报电话会议上,埃隆·马斯克、德博夫·塔内哈和其他高管强调,强劲的需求超过了产量,这主要由完全自动驾驶(FSD)驱动。北美地区的 FSD 付费订阅量达到了交付量的 75% 以上,全球付费客户超过 170 万,其中一半为订阅用户。FSD 预计将在几个月内获得欧盟的全面批准,且不晚于第一季度。扣除积分后的汽车毛利率从 16.3% 环比上升至 18.1%,库存订单积压量达到了四年来的最高水平。 奥斯汀的 CyberCab 车队呈指数级规模化增长,自推出以来增长了十倍,无人监督自动驾驶里程实现每周两位数的增长。向达拉斯的扩张计划于下个月进行,软件将在 V15 版本中广泛发布,以便客户车辆能够在明年第二季度加入机器人出租车车队。储能部署达到 13.7 吉瓦时,毛利率从 20.4% 提升至 33.1%,Megapack 的产能几乎已售罄至 2027 年。Optimus 已在弗里蒙特的量产线上进入早期生产阶段,目标是在未来一年内建立年产百万台的生产线,并预计在明年年底左右向特斯拉外部客户交付。位于奥斯汀的 TerraFab 研究设施将于明年上半年开始调试机器,目标是在 5 月或 6 月左右生产出首批测试芯片,并在 2028 年第三季度实现有实际用途的批量生产。在现金流和高达 300 亿美元的有担保借款能力的支撑下,该年度的资本支出指引被修正为约 200 亿美元。 电话会议结束后,主持人特拉维斯回顾了业绩和要点。他指出,75% 的 FSD 搭载率以及无人监督机器人出租车里程的迅速指数级增长标志着一个成功的季度。经常性订阅模式正在产生高利润的年度经常性收入,从而改变了业务结构。尽管股价在电话会议后略有下跌,但他认为基础业务进展强劲,并强调长期投资者应关注正在展开的自动驾驶和机器人技术路线图。本季度资本支出低于预期,为 4.7 亿美元,全年指引被下调。CyberCab 预计将在今年年底前向车队客户交付,V15 中的软件更新将增强泊车、制图和目的地处理能力。尽管存在外部政治噪音和负面聊天情绪,但围绕自动驾驶、能源和机器人技术的投资核心逻辑依然在稳步推进。

In the Q3 earnings call, Elon Musk, Debov Taneja, and other executives highlighted strong demand exceeding production, driven primarily by Full Self-Driving (FSD). FSD paid subscriptions in North America reached over 75% of deliveries, with global paid customers surpassing 1.7 million, half of which are on subscriptions. FSD is expected to secure full EU approval within a few months, and no later than Q1. Automotive margins excluding credits rose sequentially from 16.3% to 18.1%, and inventory order backlogs reached a four-year high. The CyberCab fleet in Austin scaled exponentially, growing tenfold since launch, with weekly double-digit growth in unsupervised autonomous miles. Expansion to Dallas is scheduled for next month, with software releasing broadly in V15 to enable customer vehicles to join the robot taxi fleet by Q2 next year. Energy storage deployments reached 13.7 gigawatt-hours with gross margins improving from 20.4% to 33.1%, and Megapacks remain nearly sold out through 2027. Optimus has entered early production on a high-volume line in Fremont, with a million-unit annual production line targeted over the next year and customer deliveries outside Tesla anticipated near the end of next year. The Austin-based TerraFab research facility will begin commissioning machinery in the first half of next year, targeting initial test chips around May or June and useful volume production by Q3 of 2028. Total capital expenditure guidance for the year was revised to approximately $20 billion, supported by cash flow and up to $30 billion in secured borrowing capacity. Following the call, host Travis reviewed the results and takeaways. He noted that the 75% FSD attach rate and rapid exponential growth in unsupervised robot taxi miles signal a successful quarter. The recurring subscription model is generating high-margin annual recurring revenue that changes the business profile. Although the stock dipped slightly after the call, he viewed the underlying business progress as strong, emphasizing that long-term investors should focus on the unfolding autonomy and robotics roadmap. CapEx came in lower than expected at $4.7 billion for the quarter, and full-year guidance was revised downward. Deliveries for CyberCabs are anticipated for fleet customers by the end of this year, and software updates in V15 will enhance parking, mapping, and destination handling. Despite external political noise and negative chat sentiment, the core investment thesis around autonomy, energy, and robotics remains on track.