Live: Tesla Q3 Earnings Call 2026 (TSLA)
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在第三季度财报电话会议上，埃隆·马斯克、德博夫·塔内哈和其他高管强调，强劲的需求超过了产量，这主要由完全自动驾驶（FSD）驱动。北美地区的 FSD 付费订阅量达到了交付量的 75% 以上，全球付费客户超过 170 万，其中一半为订阅用户。FSD 预计将在几个月内获得欧盟的全面批准，且不晚于第一季度。扣除积分后的汽车毛利率从 16.3% 环比上升至 18.1%，库存订单积压量达到了四年来的最高水平。
奥斯汀的 CyberCab 车队呈指数级规模化增长，自推出以来增长了十倍，无人监督自动驾驶里程实现每周两位数的增长。向达拉斯的扩张计划于下个月进行，软件将在 V15 版本中广泛发布，以便客户车辆能够在明年第二季度加入机器人出租车车队。储能部署达到 13.7 吉瓦时，毛利率从 20.4% 提升至 33.1%，Megapack 的产能几乎已售罄至 2027 年。Optimus 已在弗里蒙特的量产线上进入早期生产阶段，目标是在未来一年内建立年产百万台的生产线，并预计在明年年底左右向特斯拉外部客户交付。位于奥斯汀的 TerraFab 研究设施将于明年上半年开始调试机器，目标是在 5 月或 6 月左右生产出首批测试芯片，并在 2028 年第三季度实现有实际用途的批量生产。在现金流和高达 300 亿美元的有担保借款能力的支撑下，该年度的资本支出指引被修正为约 200 亿美元。
电话会议结束后，主持人特拉维斯回顾了业绩和要点。他指出，75% 的 FSD 搭载率以及无人监督机器人出租车里程的迅速指数级增长标志着一个成功的季度。经常性订阅模式正在产生高利润的年度经常性收入，从而改变了业务结构。尽管股价在电话会议后略有下跌，但他认为基础业务进展强劲，并强调长期投资者应关注正在展开的自动驾驶和机器人技术路线图。本季度资本支出低于预期，为 4.7 亿美元，全年指引被下调。CyberCab 预计将在今年年底前向车队客户交付，V15 中的软件更新将增强泊车、制图和目的地处理能力。尽管存在外部政治噪音和负面聊天情绪，但围绕自动驾驶、能源和机器人技术的投资核心逻辑依然在稳步推进。
In the Q3 earnings call, Elon Musk, Debov Taneja, and other executives highlighted strong demand exceeding production, driven primarily by Full Self-Driving (FSD). FSD paid subscriptions in North America reached over 75% of deliveries, with global paid customers surpassing 1.7 million, half of which are on subscriptions. FSD is expected to secure full EU approval within a few months, and no later than Q1. Automotive margins excluding credits rose sequentially from 16.3% to 18.1%, and inventory order backlogs reached a four-year high.
The CyberCab fleet in Austin scaled exponentially, growing tenfold since launch, with weekly double-digit growth in unsupervised autonomous miles. Expansion to Dallas is scheduled for next month, with software releasing broadly in V15 to enable customer vehicles to join the robot taxi fleet by Q2 next year. Energy storage deployments reached 13.7 gigawatt-hours with gross margins improving from 20.4% to 33.1%, and Megapacks remain nearly sold out through 2027. Optimus has entered early production on a high-volume line in Fremont, with a million-unit annual production line targeted over the next year and customer deliveries outside Tesla anticipated near the end of next year. The Austin-based TerraFab research facility will begin commissioning machinery in the first half of next year, targeting initial test chips around May or June and useful volume production by Q3 of 2028. Total capital expenditure guidance for the year was revised to approximately $20 billion, supported by cash flow and up to $30 billion in secured borrowing capacity.
Following the call, host Travis reviewed the results and takeaways. He noted that the 75% FSD attach rate and rapid exponential growth in unsupervised robot taxi miles signal a successful quarter. The recurring subscription model is generating high-margin annual recurring revenue that changes the business profile. Although the stock dipped slightly after the call, he viewed the underlying business progress as strong, emphasizing that long-term investors should focus on the unfolding autonomy and robotics roadmap. CapEx came in lower than expected at $4.7 billion for the quarter, and full-year guidance was revised downward. Deliveries for CyberCabs are anticipated for fleet customers by the end of this year, and software updates in V15 will enhance parking, mapping, and destination handling. Despite external political noise and negative chat sentiment, the core investment thesis around autonomy, energy, and robotics remains on track.
摘要
Listen to Elon Musk and Tesla management discuss Tesla's Q3 2026 financial results and answer questions from investors and analysts. Join Rob Maurer for a live blog highlighting key information, followed by reaction to the call and earnings report.
For reaction to Tesla's shareholder letter and earnings report: https://youtube.com/live/9VfbZwh-pqo
0:00 Introduction
0:51 Elon Musk opening remarks
10:14 CFO Vaibhav Taneja opening comments
17:43 Investor questions
32:43 Analyst questions
1:00:19 Rob's review and questions
X: https://www.x.com/robmaurer
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/tesladailypodcast
Tesla Referral: https://ts.la/robert47283
#Tesla #TSLA #Investing
Executive producer Jeremy Cooke
Executive producer Troy Cherasaro
Executive producer Andre/Maria Kent
Executive producer Jessie Chimni
Executive producer Michael Pastrone
Executive producer Richard Del Maestro
Executive producer John Beans
Disclosure: Rob Maurer is long TSLA stock. Rob Maurer has personal and fund-related economic exposure to SPCX, and is long SPCX stock. This video is not intended as investment advice or a recommendation.
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欢迎参加问答网络广播。我叫特拉维斯·阿克塞尔罗德，是投资者关系负责人。今天和我一起的有埃隆·马斯克、德博夫·坦内贾以及其他几位高管。我们的第三季度业绩已经在中部时间下午3点左右公布，可以在与本次网络广播相同的链接中找到更新的内容。在本次会议中，我们将讨论公司的业务展望，并作出前瞻性陈述。这些评论基于我们截至今天的预测和期望。由于众多风险和不确定性，包括我们最近向SEC提交的文件中提到的那些，实际事件或结果可能会有较大差异。在今天问答环节中，请每人限问一个问题和一个跟进问题。请使用“举手”按钮加入提问队列。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Q&A webcast. My name is Travis Axelrod, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Debov Taneja, and a number of other executives. Our Q3 results were announced at about 3 p.m. Central Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast. During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. During the question and answer portion of today's call, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Please use the raise hand button to join the question queue.
在我们进入问答环节之前，Elon 有一些开场白。Elon？谢谢。那么第三季度表现得非常强劲，我要向整个特斯拉团队表示祝贺，谢谢他们的努力付出使这一切成为可能。我们的车辆需求正在迅速增长，远远超过目前的生产能力，显然我们会大幅增加生产，并且正在实质性地增加产量。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon? Thank you. So the third quarter was very strong, and I'd like to give a big congratulations to the whole Tesla team for working hard to make it happen. Demand is growing rapidly for our vehicles. It's exceeding our production by a significant margin, and obviously we're going to be ramping, and we are ramping production meaningfully.
最大的需求推动因素是全自动驾驶，目前市场上没有任何一款车能在这方面与我们竞争。需要明确的是，我们正在尽最大努力生产和交付尽可能多的汽车，并在积极推进在更多市场获得全自动驾驶的审批。我们已经在欧洲的许多国家获得了批准，并希望能得到全欧盟范围的批准。虽然很难预测，但也许在几个月内就能实现，我会感到意外如果需要超过第一季度。不过，我们预计将在整个欧洲和许多其他国家获得全面批准。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
The biggest driver for demand is full self-driving, and today there's really no competitor for FSD in any car that you can buy. And to be clear, we are producing and delivering as many cars as we can, and we're pushing very hard for FSD approval in additional markets. We're now approved in many countries in Europe, and we're hoping for an EU-wide approval. It's hard to predict, but maybe, you know, within a few months, but I would be surprised if it takes longer than Q1. But we do anticipate being fully approved throughout Europe and many other countries.
我们在第三季度也开始生产特斯拉半挂卡车，并进行了新的Roadster演示。我认为这可能是最令人兴奋的活动之一，甚至可以说是有史以来最酷的产品展示。这都是得益于特斯拉和SpaceX团队的卓越工作表现。同时，我们也在为大幅增加制造能力打下基础，我们的目标是到2030年左右实现年产500万辆汽车。我认为我们有很大的希望实现这个目标。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We also began production of the Tesla semi-truck in Q3, and did the new Roaster demo, which was, I think, one of the most exciting events. I mean, arguably the coolest demo of any product ever. And that's a testament to amazing work by the Tesla and SpaceX teams. So we've also been, like, laying the groundwork for a lot more manufacturing capacity. We're aiming for 5 million vehicles a year by approximately 2030. And I think we've got a good shot of achieving that goal.
当然，能源需求非常强劲。实际上，我们几乎已经售罄了2027年的所有大容量电池组，我们正在尽快提高产量以满足需求。我们也预计这方面的毛利率会显著提升。总之，经过多年的努力和相对稳定的发展后，我认为我们现在正迎来一个充满趣味和显著增长的时期。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And yeah, so energy demand is very strong. We're actually almost sold out of all mega-packs for 2027, and we're ramping production as quickly as possible to meet demand. We also expect gross margins on that to increase meaningfully. So, in a nutshell, after many years of sort of grind and things being fairly flat, I think we're now headed for a lot of fun and significant growth.
关于RoboTaxi，我们看到RoboTaxi在全自动驾驶里程上的增长呈现出指数级，即非常快速的增长。这个观点很重要，难以强调过多。自动驾驶里程每周的增长速度非常迅速，我认为全球没有任何公司能在我们的自动驾驶汽车规模上与我们媲美，因为我们还在持续扩大规模。例如，奥斯汀的CyberCab车队自从大约一个月前启动以来，规模已经扩大了10倍。累计里程数确实很惊人，当我查看每周图表时，真的感到惊叹，看上去就像火箭进入轨道一样，增长得非常快。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Regarding RoboTaxi, we're seeing the RoboTaxi miles-driven, fully autonomous miles-driven, scale exponentially, meaning scaling very rapidly. And it would be hard to overstate this point. It really is an extremely fast week-over-week growth in autonomous miles. And I don't think there's any company in the world that can match our scale with autonomous vehicles as we continue to ramp. The CyberCab fleet in Austin, for example, has grown by a factor of 10 since launch about a month ago. And the cumulative mileage is really, so when I look at the weekly chart, it's wow. I mean, it looks like a rocket gun orbit, basically. It's growing very fast.
我建议，如果你想体验一下，可以来奥斯汀看看，因为正如最近很多人在奥斯汀音乐节上看到的一样，奥斯汀已经大规模使用CyberCabs。这是一件非常有前景的事情。关于Optimus，我们已经在弗里蒙特的高容量生产线上开始了初期生产。我想详细说明这一点，因为我之前说过，Optimus的发展呈S型曲线，但曲线的初始部分坡度较缓，并且有些不稳定，因为它是一个非常新颖的产品。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And I recommend, if you want to try it out, you know, come into Austin, and you'll see CyberCabs in use at scale in Austin, as I think a lot of people saw with the Austin City Limits concert recently. So, this is really going to a very good place. And so, regarding Optimus, we've started, like, what I'd call early production on a high-volume line in Fremont. Now, I want to elaborate on this point because the-- and I've said this before, that the growth of Optimus, it's an S-curve, but the initial part of the S-curve is-- has a shallow slope and is somewhat bumpy because it is such a radically new product.
所以，你知道，可以这样想：在机器人生产的过程中，大约有一万个环节都必须顺利进行，而整体进度会受到那一万个环节中最慢、最不可能顺利完成的环节的限制。不过，我们确实已经在弗里蒙特的生产线上设置了大部分每生产线一百万台的产能。但我预计，我们可能至少需要一年，或许更长时间，才能达到这个理想状态，即每周生产两万台的速度。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, you know, the way to think about it is there's like 10,000 things that have to go right for production of the robot, and it'll move as fast as the slowest least likely of the 10,000. But we do have, you know, the vast majority of a million unit per line-- production line landed in Fremont right now. But I would expect that it takes us probably at least a year, maybe a little longer, to get to that annualized rate, to get to 20,000 units a week.
所以，这本质上是因为设计中仍然有些部分在不断变化。很多人问我关于Optimus的事情，这就是为什么我觉得有必要详细说明这一点。如果人们对新技术或者大规模生产复杂的新硬件不是特别了解，他们可能会想：为什么不能马上大量生产这些产品并发送出去呢？但实际上，这需要建立一个庞大的全球供应链，在国内还需要一个非常大的工厂，并且所有环节都必须配合良好。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, this is just a fundamentally-- because there's, you know, there's still parts of the design that are changing. Like, a lot of people ask me about Optimus. That's why I think I've got to kind of, sort of, belabor this point. Because if people aren't, sort of, understand, like, new technology that well or volume production of complex new hardware that well, it sort of seems like, well, can't you just make a whole bunch of these things immediately and send them out? And it's like, no, you've got to basically build up an entire gigantic global supply chain and have domestically a very, very big factory and everything's got to work.
我们仍然需要对设计进行一些调整，因为必须要交付一个安全、可靠、并且使用寿命长的机器人，这意味着它不能在仅仅一个月后就出现问题。在AI方面还有很多工作要做，才能让这个机器人在开放性的任务中真正有用。不过，就像我说的，我预计到明年年底，这些问题——无论是AI、电机设计、可靠性还是使用寿命等——应该都会得到解决。所以，预计到那时我们会开始将Optimist交付给特斯拉以外的公司。我坚信，Optimist将会成为地球上最重要的产品，而类人机器人总体上也会成为地球上最大的产品。所以，Optimist确实是一个非常重要的项目。然而，我们还有很多工作要完成，大约还需要一年左右的时间。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And there's still some things we need to tweak about the design because you need to deliver a robot that is safe and reliable and has long duration. So, it can't, like, wear out after a month. And there's still quite a lot of work to do with regard to the AI in the robot for it to be truly useful for open-ended tasks. But, like I said, if, I would expect that the AI, the, you know, the electromechanical design and the reliability and duration, usage duration, like the usage life of the robot, I expect these, I do expect these issues to be solved around the end of next year. So, that's the time to expect when we're delivering Optimist to companies outside of Tesla. And I remain convinced that Optimist will be the biggest product on Earth. And humanoid robots in general will be the biggest product on Earth. So, Optimist is a very big deal. But, I don't want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through and it's about a year or so.
那将需要一些时间来处理所有这些事情。但据我所知，在通用人形机器人的领域，目前没有任何公司能接近特斯拉的水平。关于TerraFab，位于奥斯汀的研究工厂进展迅速。我们将在明年上半年开始调试机器设备。如果一切顺利，我们计划在五月或六月进行首次测试，以看看是否能制造出任何芯片。这令人非常兴奋。我们计划在2028年第三季度实现有用芯片的大规模生产。正如我在X平台上公开表示的那样，我认为TerraFab将会成为世界上最有价值的建筑，它的经济价值将可能进入国家排行的前二十。因此，这是一个宏伟的项目。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
That'll take us to get through all that stuff. But, as to the best of my knowledge, there is no one that is even close to Tesla with respect to a general purpose humanoid robot. Regarding the TerraFab, the Austin-based research fab is progressing quickly. We'll begin commissioning machinery in the first half of next year. And hopefully, if things go well, we'll make our first test chip just to see if we can make any chip at all around May or June. So, that's pretty exciting. And then, our aspiration is to be making some kind of useful chip at volume around Q3 of 2028. So, as I said publicly on X, the TerraFab, I think, will be the most valuable building in the world. And we'll probably have an economic value that will place it in the top 20 of countries. So, it's an epic project.
为了推动发展，尤其是Optimus的发展，这将成为一个非常重要甚至必要的资产，因为我们可以解决半导体中的瓶颈问题，无论是内存、封装、逻辑还是其他方面。关于可能与SpaceX合并的问题，我想我昨天已经说明了一切。就像在雷区中跳舞。总之，我们对自动化和机器人技术的路线图感到非常兴奋，会有很多令人惊叹的东西即将到来。我想再次感谢特斯拉团队的出色执行力，以及所有支持我们的人一路上的陪伴。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And this will be an incredibly important asset, if not necessary asset, in order to scale, especially Optimus. As we can address bottlenecks in semiconductors, whether it's memory, packaging, logic, or whatever the case may be. With regard to a potential merger with SpaceX, I think I said everything that should be said yesterday. Tap dancing through a minefield there. And, yeah, that's it. In conclusion, we're super excited about our autonomy and robotics roadmap. There's a lot of incredibly awesome stuff coming. And I'd like to, once again, thank the Tesla team for their strong execution and all of our supporters for joining us on this journey.
好的，非常感谢你，Ilan。Vebov 也有开场发言。Vebov，谢谢你，Travis。我们在第三季度的各个方面都取得了进展，Elon 已经覆盖了很多内容。除此之外，我还想补充的是，我们也开始交付使用自己的LFP电池的Megapacks。而且，我们首次连续两个季度的车辆交付量超过了48万台。在汽车业务方面，本季度结束时，我们的订单积压量达到了四年来的最高水平，而交付主要受到生产限制。因此，我们正专注于提高所有工厂的产量以满足这一不断增长的需求。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Great. Thanks very much, Ilan. And Vebov has opening remarks as well. Vebov. Thanks, Travis. Well, we continued our progress on a lot of fronts in Q3. Elon already covered a lot of them. Additionally, which I'd like to add is we also started deliveries of Megapacks with our in-house LFP batteries. And for the first time, two consecutive quarters of vehicle deliveries of over 480k. On the automotive business, we exited the quarter with our highest backlog in four years, with deliveries constrained primarily by production. We are therefore focused on increasing production at all our factories to meet this growing demand.
虽然我们正积极努力提高产量，但要将供应链、制造到交付物流的每个方面调整到位，确实需要一些时间。Model Y在这个季度继续表现出色，并在多个重要市场创下交付记录。根据我们收集的初步数据，我们相信它是欧洲最畅销的电动汽车，也是韩国最畅销的乘用车。我们还在包括澳大利亚、日本和台湾等关键市场创下了新纪录。正如Elon所说，全自动驾驶（FSD）继续是需求的关键驱动因素。在第三季度，北美超过75%的交付车辆在交车时签订了付费FSD订阅服务，比第二季度提高了约20%。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
While we are actively working to increase production, it does take some time to get every aspect dialed in, from supply chain to manufacturing to delivery logistics. The Model Y continued to outperform in the quarter and set delivery records in several key markets. Based on the preliminary data which we have gathered, we believe that it was the number one selling BEV in Europe and the number one selling passenger car in South Korea. We have also set new records in key markets including Australia, Japan and Taiwan. As Elon said, FSD continues to be the key driver for demand. In Q3, over 75% of deliveries in North America included a sign-up for paid FSD subscription at the time of delivery, which is approximately 20% higher than Q2.
总的来说，FSD（全自动驾驶能力）的附加率不断提高，全球付费用户已超过170万，其中首次有50%是通过订阅方式获得的。鉴于FSD在美国的强劲表现，我们正在采取额外措施，在欧洲销售某些汽车，并提供一些优惠，以在获得更广泛的FSD批准之前增加该地区的车队数量。在汽车利润率方面，除去补贴后的利润率从16.3%上升到18.1%。这一下降是由亚太地区交付量增加所推动的。尽管商品价格上涨和利率变化继续增加我们的成本，并带来更多挑战，我们已调整了车辆融资计划，部分抵消这些成本。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Overall, the FSD attached rate continued to improve, reaching over 1.7 million paid customers globally, of which for the first time 50% is based on subscriptions. Given the strength of FSD in the US, we are taking extra steps to sell certain cars in Europe with some benefits to try and get more fleet out there before broader FSD approval is obtained. On automotive margins, excluding credits increased sequentially from 16.3% to 18.1%. The improvement in margins is driven by a higher mix of deliveries in APAC. While commodity prices increases and interest rate changes continue to add to our costs and create further headwinds, we have adjusted the vehicle financing programs to partially offsets for such costs.
在能源业务方面，我们在本季度的能源存储部署达到了13.7吉瓦时，成为历史上的第二好季度。能源的毛利率从20.4%提高到了33.1%。毛利率的提升主要归功于本季度确认的免税资金以及对某些电池相关成本与供应商对齐后获得的保修费用补偿。正如埃隆所说，数据中心对我们的需求极为旺盛，我们正在尽全力提高产能。因此，随着时间的推进，我们会看到平均售价的提升和利润率的进一步改善。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
On the energy business, you know, we had a second best quarter of deployments of 13.7 gigawatt hour of energy storage. Energy gross margins improved from 20.4% to 33.1%. The sequential margin improvement is primarily attributed to tariff-free funds recognized in the quarter and warranty true downs, resulting from alignment with a vendor on certain cell-related costs to be reimbursed by them. As Elon said, the business is witnessing extreme demand from data centers, and we are doing our best to increase production, and accordingly, we'll see, you know, improvements in ASP and further improvements in margins as we move forward.
服务及其他利润率从14.1%上升到15.9%，创历史新高。这是由于多个业务和服务的强劲表现，包括超级充电和保险。在服务及其他业务中，机器人出租车业务随着在奥斯丁推出的网络出租车服务继续增长。本季度无人监督驾驶的累计里程增长了8倍，并且整个季度每周都有两位数的增长。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Services and other margins improved sequentially from 14.1% to 15.9%, an all-time high. This was the result of strength across service -- across several of the businesses and services and others, including supercharging and insurance. The robot taxi business, which is part of services and others, continued to grow with the launch of cyber cab rides in Austin. Accumulated unsupervised miles 8x in the quarter, and we had weekly double-digit growth throughout the quarter.
我们正在借鉴奥斯汀扩展中的所有经验，为在其他市场推出“网络出租车”做好准备。我们的首要任务是通过提供最佳体验的车辆（如网络出租车）来推进网络的密集度和扩展。我们还将随着时间的推移，增加其他型号的车辆，以满足全体人群的地面交通需求。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We're taking all the learnings from our Austin expansion to help us prepare for broader cyber cab launch in other markets. Our priority is progressing the density and expansion of the network through vehicles that provide the best experience, like the cyber cab. We will also continue to augment the fleet with other variants over time to address the terrestrial transportation needs of the total population.
我想强调的是，我们的目标是全面接管地面交通的各个部分，而不仅仅是运输人。我们的起步是从把人从一个地方运送到另一个地方，但最终目标是掌控地球上所有类型的交通方式。我们正在进行巨大的投资周期，为未来做好准备。因此，正如之前所提到的，我们的运营费用在逐步增加。大部分增长来源于与研发相关的大量投入，包括像数字计算的折旧、芯片开发以及像Optimus、Megapack 3和Simatra这些新产品的预生产成本。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I'd like to stress that, you know, what we are trying to do is literally take over every part of terrestrial transportation, not just getting people. I mean, we're starting with getting people from one place to the other, but we want to basically own this transportation of any kind on Earth. We are in a huge investment cycle to set us up for the future. Therefore, as previously guided, operating expenses continue to increase sequentially. Most of the increase came from significant research and development-related activities, including SI development costs such as depreciation from a digital compute, chip development, and pre-production ramp costs for new products like the Optimus, Megapack 3, and Simatra.
这种运营费用增长的趋势将持续，直到我们将这些新产品推向市场。净收入受到影响，因为我们的SpaceX持股市值减少了1.42亿美元，但这部分被比特币市值增加约2.9亿美元所抵消。我们继续努力高效且负责地管理现金。我们以超过15亿美元的正自由现金流结束了本季度，并且总现金和投资余额超过450亿美元。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
This trend of growing OPEX would continue till we commercialize these new products. Net income was impacted from a mark-to-market reduction of our SpaceX holding of $142 million, which was offset by a Bitcoin mark-to-market gain of approximately $290 million. We continued our efforts to manage cash efficiently and responsibly. We ended the quarter with positive free cash flow of over $1.5 billion and an overall cash and investment balance of over $45 billion.
我们将本年度的资本支出预测修订为大约200亿美元，这是由于我们有效管理了资本投放。我们计划主要通过运营产生的现金流来为此提供资金。此外，在本季度，我们已获得高达300亿美元的贷款额度，以支持资本支出的预期增长。我们对企业现金流生成能力的信心以及所进行的投资使我们相信可以利用短期融资。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We're revising our CapEx guidance to be approximately $20 billion for the current year as a result of managing our capital deployment efficiently and plan to fund it primarily from our cash flows from operations. Additionally, during the quarter, we secured capacity to borrow up to $30 billion to support the expected growth in CapEx. Our confidence in the cash-generation capacity of our business and the investments we are making drove our belief to secure shorter-term financing.
我们不打算在今年内使用任何新的融资渠道。我们从关税退款中收到的资金将被重新投资于扩大美国的产能。我想强调的是，我们确实愿意做大量艰苦的实际工作，以便让生产设施运转起来。因此，随着我们增加更多的自动驾驶出租车车队，未来几年的资本支出将继续增加。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We don't plan to make any draws under any of the new facilities in this calendar year. The money that we received from the tariff refunds is being reinvested to expand production capacity in the U.S. I like to stress on this that, you know, we like to do a lot of hardcore, real grunt work to get production facilities up and running. And so, you know, our CapEx for the next few years would continue to expand as we add more robot taxi fleet.
我们正在扩大Optimus的生产能力，安装太阳能制造设备，购买额外的SI计算机基础设施，并建设一座半导体工厂。这一战略将帮助公司在下一阶段实现增长，颠覆许多现有市场，并创造出新的市场。目前是加入特斯拉最令人振奋的时刻。我们在自动驾驶、机器人技术和能源领域打下的基础，将为我们带来非常光明的未来。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We expand our production capacity for Optimus, install manufacturing capacity for solar, purchase additional SI computer infrastructure, and build a semiconductor fab. This strategy will position the company for the next era of growth and disrupt many existing markets while creating new ones. This is by far the most exciting time to be at Tesla. The foundation being laid around autonomy, robotics, and energy is setting us up for an extremely bright future.
我想以感谢特斯拉团队、我们的客户、投资者和供应商对我们的信任来结束此次讲话。非常好。谢谢你，Vibhav。现在我们将回答来自say.com的问题。第一个问题是，CyberCab车队如何在奥斯汀之外扩展？考虑到美国国家公路交通安全管理局(NHTSA)正在进行的安全审查，德克萨斯州以外的监管路径是什么？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I would like to end by thanking the Tesla team, our customers, investors, and suppliers for the confidence in us on this journey. Fantastic. Thank you, Vibhav. Now we're going to go to questions from say.com. The first question is, how does the CyberCab fleet scale past Austin? And what's the regulatory path outside Texas given NHTSA's open safety review?
阿肖克，你想来讲一下吗？好的，我来开始。首先，这个季度我们推出了CyberCab，这让人非常兴奋。我们主要通过从其他车型平台（如Model Y、Model 3等）的数据中学习，来实现这一目标。这些数据帮助我们制造了CyberCab，而不需要大量的车辆来生成这些数据。因此，在CyberCab的AI功能方面，我们看到了很好的扩展。我们在奥斯汀推出了这个服务，只是因为那里的出租车市场有限，我们想让CyberCab遍布整个奥斯汀。但实际上，我们没有被限制在奥斯汀。事实上，下个月我们将在达拉斯推出，而同样的软件将与Model Y机器出租车一起扩展到其他许多城市。非常感谢。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Ashok, did you want to take that? Yeah, I'll start here. First of all, we launched CyberCab this quarter, which is very exciting. We achieved that by mostly learning from data from the other vehicle platforms. For example, Model Y, Model 3, et cetera. All of the data helped make the CyberCab without requiring a ridiculous amount of vehicles to produce the data. So we are seeing very good scaling in terms of CyberCab's AI capabilities. We launched in Austin, but that's only because, you know, we had some caps and we want to swarm Austin with CyberCabs everywhere. But there's no fundamental reason that we are limited to Austin. In fact, next month we'll be launching in Dallas and then the same software just scaled to lots of other cities along with the Model Y robot axes. Great. Thanks very much.
下一个问题是，您对通过众包方式收集Optimus训练数据和使用内部的Optimus Academy方法有何看法？数据目前是主要的瓶颈吗？我觉得您已经讲了很多，但还有其他看法吗？我大部分已经谈过了，众包其实并不是Optimus面临的问题。我们有很多关于人工智能架构的事情需要解决，目前仍在努力中。我们正在取得不错的进展，但这部分工作需要理清。实际上，为了获得Optimus所需的训练数据，我们确实需要创建大量的OptiMai。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
The next question is, what are your thoughts on crowdsourcing training data for Optimus versus your internal Optimus Academy approach? Is data currently the primary bottleneck? I think you covered this quite a bit, but any other color there? I've mostly talked about this already, but it's not crowdsourcing is not the issue for Optimus. There's a lot of things we have to get right about the AI architecture that we're still working on. We're making good progress, but that needs to be sorted out. And really, in order for Optimus to get the training data we need, we actually need to make a lot of OptiMai.
我们需要制造大约一万到两万个机器人，然后让它们进行自我对战。我们正在建立一个Optimus学院，让Optimus可以练习做各种各样的任务。这样，我们可以利用这些数据形成一个飞轮机制，使其在各项任务上表现得越来越好。与汽车不同的是，Optimus没有庞大的车辆队伍可以用来收集训练数据。因此，对于Optimus，我们需要通过制作机器人并让它们进行自我对战来启动，这实际上就像人类学习在世界上导航一样。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So we need to make, I think, on the order of 10,000 or 20,000 bots and then have them do self-play. And we're building up an Optimus Academy where Optimus can practice doing a very wide range of tasks. And then we can use that data in sort of a flywheel to make it better and better at these various tasks. You know, a big difference with Optimus versus the cars is we don't have this vast fleet of cars from which we can gather training data. So with Optimus, we have to bootstrap it by making the robots and having them do self-play, which is really how a human learns to navigate the world.
你知道，当你有一个小孩，他们成长过程中一开始有点摇摇晃晃，不知道怎么做事情。最终，他们学会自己擦屁股，这是一个很大的里程碑，养过孩子的人都知道。然后，他们学会阅读，学会做各种事情。这些都是通过玩耍来学习的。我们其实需要让Optimus在大规模的环境下“玩耍”，以便它能够在现实世界中变得非常擅长各种任务。Ashok，你可能想对此补充一些。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You know, you can see this when you have a toddler and they grow up and they initially are sort of wobbly and they don't know how to do things. And eventually they, you know, they learn to wipe their own ass, which is a big milestone. As anyone who's had kids knows. And then they learn to read and do all sorts of things and be able to do these things. And they learn this by playing. And we actually need Optimus to play at scale in order to have it be really good at tasks in the real world. And Ashok, you may want to add to that.
好的。就像你提到的，伊兰，对于汽车来说，我们实际上可以从汽车本身获取数据。但对于Optimus机器人来说，人类无法进入它的内部，也无法像傀儡一样操控它。我们需要让Optimus通过观察他人完成任务来学习，然后再自己开始练习这些任务。举个例子，就像观看一场足球比赛，仅仅是看比赛并不意味着你就会踢足球。你需要开始练习，通过机器人自身的经验来提高和学习。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. Like you mentioned, Ilan, for the car, we actually have the data from the car's embodiment itself. But for Optimus, there's no exit for humans to get into and, like, make Optimus into a puppet or something like that. Like we have to learn, Optimus has to learn by watching other people do tasks initially and then start practicing the task yourself. For example, you can imagine, for example, if you're watching a soccer game, just because you're watching it doesn't mean you'll be good at soccer yourself. You've got to start practicing and get good at the game and learn from the bot's own experience.
我们正在建立一个庞大的强化学习循环，初始的基础训练是由人类来完成以启动整个过程，接着将在Optimus上进行大量的自我训练，既包括模拟环境中的训练，也包括现实世界中的训练，以便让Optimus自身在实践中学习。我认为我们已经很接近在这个大循环中获得非常好的结果了。是的，我觉得我们可能会在一个月左右准备好发布一个Optimus的视频。在发布这个视频时，我希望能确保它不像是一个预设好的展示，因为有些人形机器人展演看起来非常令人印象深刻。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And we are setting up this huge reinforcement learning cycle with initial base training done from humans to bootstrap and then put it on Optimus and do a lot of self-play both in simulation and in the real world to learn on the embodiment of Optimus itself. I think we're pretty close to having very good results in this big loop. Yeah, I think we're maybe ready to release, like, an Optimus video in a month or so. I want to make sure that, like, when we release this video, that it's not like a canned demo that, you know, like when you see these robot, humanoid robot demonstrations, some of them look very impressive.
但他们并没有使用任何先进的人工智能或超级智能。我是说，这些就像是预先编程的确定性任务。如果你真的尝试在现实世界中使用那个类人机器人，你会遇到很多麻烦。基本上它是行不通的。所以我想发布一个视频，展示Optimus做一些不是预先编程的事情。我认为可能再过一两个月就可以展示一个让人相信所见的演示。此外，还有另一个重要的里程碑，我们希望实现的，就是将特斯拉的AI-5芯片集成到Optimus中。如果一切按计划进行，这大约会在明年四月实现。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But they're not really using any kind of advanced AI or SI. I mean, they're like pre-programmed deterministic tasks. And if you actually try to use that humanoid robot in the real world, you would have a lot of trouble. It wouldn't work, basically. So I want to release a video that's where it's Optimus doing things that are not pre-programmed. And I think that's maybe a month or two for that to have a demo that you can believe what you see type of thing. And then there's another milestone that's, I think, important we want to get to, which is to integrate the Tesla AI-5 chip into Optimus, which, if things go according to plan, will be in approximately April of next year.
这意味着性能有了巨大的提升，每秒的运算次数增加了一个数量级。相比AI-4，AI-5的计算能力多了一个数量级。这将对Optimus大有帮助，因为类人机器人的自由度远超过汽车。因此，要在Optimus的所有自由度和广泛的任务范围内，高效运作所需的一切是个不小的挑战。想象一下，类人机器人要执行的任务量可能是汽车的上千倍，基本上是个非常大的数字。所以，我认为AI-5的额外计算能力会带来很大的不同。希望这项技术能在明年四月左右大规模应用。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And that's a giant improvement in capability with an order of magnitude more sort of more operations per second. Like, it's an order of magnitude more compute, AI-5 versus AI-4. And that will help Optimus a lot because the degrees of freedom that a humanoid robot has to deal with are far greater than what a car has to deal with. So it is a bit of a struggle to squeeze everything needed to operate with all the degrees of freedom of Optimus and the wide range of tasks. You know, can you think of like a humanoid robot is going to do like a thousand times more things than a car would do? That's some very big number, basically. So I think the additional compute of AI-5 will make a big difference. And that comes in hopefully in volume around April of next year.
这就是为什么我认为所有的部分都很重要，比如在机电灵活性的改进，确保Optimus可以长时间运作而不磨损，调试好的AI软件以及集成AI-5芯片。这些东西都需要整合在一起。这也是为什么我认为大约一年后，Optimus会达到可以发货给客户的阶段。同时，它的生产规模化也会实现。所以这个时间点可能是个不错的考虑。而关于Optimus的初始客户，我认为可能首先会是工业应用，比如危险的、重复性的工作，那些人们不太愿意做的任务，最好能够全天候完成的工作。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And that's why I think like all the pieces, like the refinements in the electromechanical dexterity, making sure Optimus can operate for long periods of time without wearing out, you know, getting the AI software right and the AI-5 chip integrated. All of these things kind of come together. That's why I think about a year from now is when it's something that would be that you could ship to customers. And it would also be reaching scale in production. So that's probably the right timing to think about. And in terms of the initial customers for Optimus, I think it probably would be things that are industrial applications at first. Things that are like dangerous, repetitive tasks, things that people really don't want to do. So and that you want done basically 24/7.
所以，就是那种全天候工作的事情。在一开始，这将是Optimus的最高价值。随着生产规模的扩大，当然，它也会成为人们可以买回家使用的东西。但初期的高价值用途，我认为会是重工业、危险任务或者可能导致重复性压力伤害的工作。这些工作需要全天候完成。所以，这是理解的一个方式。好的，谢谢大家。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So like around the clock stuff. That's going to be the highest value for Optimus in the beginning. As we scale production, of course, it would be something that people can buy, you know, for their home. But the initial high value use will be the highest values, I think, will be kind of heavy industry, dangerous tasks or things that may cause repetitive stress injuries. And that you want done 24/7. So that's, you know, the way to think about it. Great. Thank you, guys.
下一个问题非常相似，涉及到Optimus的扩展性。所以我们可以跳过它。下一个问题是，什么时候可以期待FSD（全自动驾驶）在用户车辆中实现无需监督？阿肖克，你想先来回答吗？是的，就像我之前提到的，CyberCaps和Model Y的软件是相同的，很快我们将能够在V15版本中给客户发布相同的软件。所以唯一的额外要求是确保，比如说，用户的Model Y可以成为地理围栏的一部分，并符合特斯拉的车队管理，以实现完全自动驾驶。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
The next question is very similar. It's about Optimus scaling. So we can go past that one. Yeah. So that one basically. And the next question is, when can we anticipate FSD unsupervised in customer cars? Ashok, did you want to kick that off? Yeah. Like I mentioned earlier, the software for CyberCaps and Model Y is the same. Like, and pretty soon we'll be able to release the same software as part of the V15 release to customers. So the only additional requirement is to make sure that, you know, for example, the customer model-wise can be part of the geo fences and the fleet management that Tesla has for it to be fully autonomous.
我们预计明年第二季度左右能够让首批客户车辆加入机器人出租车车队。很好，谢谢你，Ashok。下一个问题是，CyberCab 什么时候可以供客户购买/拥有？Lars，你想先回答这个问题吗？好的，谢谢，Travis。我认为这与 Ashok 刚才说的有点关系。简而言之，我们计划在 2026 年底之前将 CyberCab 提供给客户。显然，我们正在德克萨斯的生产线上生产它们，但目前所有车辆都用于我们内部的机器人出租车车队。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We suspect somewhere around Q2 next year is when we can turn on some of the first customer vehicles to be part of the robot taxi fleet. Great. Thank you, Ashok. The next question is, when will the CyberCab be available for customer purchase/ownership? Lars, did you want to kick this one off? Sure. Thanks, Travis. I think it builds a little bit on what Ashok just said. But in short, we're trying to get CyberCabs to customers by the end of this year, 2026. Obviously, we're producing them in our line in Texas, but all of those are currently going to our own internal robot taxi fleet.
随着特斯拉的发展，我们将主要向客户交付全自动设计的无人驾驶车辆，而CyberCab将是第一个。我们今年会从小规模开始，同时学习Ashok提到的关于无人驾驶车辆的交付、拥有和车队管理等方面的知识，然后逐步扩大规模。Elon，不知道你是否有任何补充？没有。CyberCab主要将作为一种“交通即服务”的形式提供，而我们其他车型，比如Model 3、Model Y以及Roadster，更适合作为私人拥有的车辆。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And as Tesla grows, we'll mainly deliver fully designed autonomous vehicles to our customers. And CyberCab will be the first. And so as we start small this year and we learn about all the things Ashok mentioned about delivery and ownership and fleet management of autonomous vehicles and customer hands, we'll continue to scale that. Elon, I don't know if there's anything you want to add to that? No. I mean, CyberCab is primarily going to be something that is offered as like transport as a service. You know, whereas our other cars would be more, you know, the cars that you'd want to own like the 3 and the Y and whatnot and the Roadster, obviously.
当然，这段话的大意是：
但是，你知道，大多数的CyberCab业务基本上会由特斯拉拥有，并以服务的形式运营。很好，谢谢大家。接下来的两个问题都与单位经济成本相关。第一个是关于每付费机器人出租车里程的成本。第二个是关于每台Optimus机器人的成本。我们已经讨论过首位付费客户的情况。那么，VT，你想要深入讨论一下单位经济的问题吗？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But, you know, the vast majority of the CyberCab stuff will be essentially Tesla owned and transported as a service. Great. Thanks, guys. The next two questions are quite similar around unit economic costs. The first one is on per paid robot taxi mile. And the second one is cost per Optimus unit. And we already covered what are the first customer paying customer looks like. So, VT, did you want to get into the unit economics question here?
好的。在机器人出租车方面，在我们的主要运营地区，我们已经看到使用率在提高。正如Elon所说，我们每周都会查看行驶里程和付费乘车次数。虽然我们今天还没有达到每英里30美分的目标，但我们确实看到了实现这一目标的途径。关键在于扩大运营规模。在接下来的几个月里，你会看到，目前我们的主要机器人出租车产品CyberCab仅在奥斯汀可用。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. So on the robot taxi side, you know, the main geographies where we are operating, we're already seeing utilization improving. And, you know, week by week, as Elon was talking about, we look at the miles and how many paid rides are happening. So are we at our goal of 30 cents today? No. But do we see a path to get to that? Very. Yes, we do. And it's all about scaling operations. And what you'll see over the next few months is that today, CyberCab, which is the primary robot taxi product, is available only in Austin.
但我们确实计划在今年年底前在其他一些城市推出它。而且，你知道，随着我们增加更多的CyberCabs，我们也在从管理车队的运营经验中学习，比如接送、清洁等等。因此，所有这些成本都在精算中。这就是为什么，像我之前说的那样，我们确实看到了实现30美分目标的途径。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But we do plan to bring it out in some other cities before the end of this year. And, you know, as we add more CyberCabs, you know, we are also learning from the operational experience of managing a fleet, pick up and drop off, you know, cleaning, all those things. So all those costs are being dialed in. And that's why, like I said before, we definitely see a path to get to our 30 cent target.
然后你想讨论一下Optimus的成本吗？是的，我的意思是，从内部来看，我们在跟踪Optimus的成本，对比设计的成熟度，我们做得还不错。但要说我们完全达到目标还有点早，因为正如Elon所说，我们仍在进行许多设计上的迭代。好的一点是，从成本角度来看，Optimus的趋势越来越接近我们预期的CyberCab的成本。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then did you want to cover the Optimus costs? Yeah, I mean, I think Optimus costs, internally, we are tracking pretty well in terms of how the design has matured. But it would be a little too early to say that we have got there because, like Elon was saying, we're still making a lot of design iterations. The good thing is, you know, when you look at it from a cost perspective, we're trending closer to where we would say our CyberCab costs would end up being.
好的，很棒，非常感谢。下一个问题是，您预期Optimus什么时候会开始产生收入？这个问题我们之前已经回答过了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. Great. Thank you very much for that. The next question is, when do you, we kind of already answered this, when do you anticipate Optimus will be generating revenue? We covered that in a prior question.
下一个问题是，自动驾驶 (FSD) 的地图问题仍然存在。主要的三个问题是识别正确的限速、停车和常用路线。我知道你们使用了各种第三方地图，但为什么不使用你们自己的地图呢？可以授权可信赖并经过验证的特斯拉车主提供数据输入。Ashok，你想先开始讨论这个问题吗？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
The next one is, mapping for FSD continues to be a problem. The three biggest issues are recognizing proper speed limits, parking, and typical routes. I understand you use various third-party maps, but why not use your own maps? Authorize trusted and verified Tesla owners to provide the input. Ashok, did you want to kick off here?
是的，你说得很对，我们不应该依赖外部的地图。所以我们正在构建自己的地图，但并不是简单地再制作一张地图。我们在构建一个完全新颖的架构，基本上是基于人工智能的地图和导航系统。它会非常出色。这个系统会和语音集成，你可以和它对话，询问不同的路线。它还会学习你的个人偏好，同时也能了解整个团队的偏好。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah, you're totally right that we shouldn't be depending on external people's maps. So we are building our own maps, but not like the same way as one more map. We are building an entirely new architecture with essentially AI-based mapping and navigation. It's going to be super awesome. It's going to be integrated with voice. You can, like, talk to it, ask for different routes. It's going to learn your personalized preferences, plus also the fleet preferences.
所有车辆的集体智能将汇集在一起，使地图和导航变得非常酷炫。你会在即将发布的V15版中发现，这项技术已经在行程的起点和终点得到应用。而在接下来的几个月内，这项技术将全面接管所有的导航功能，包括停车、目的地处理等方面。它甚至会在驾驶任务上比你更了解你自己。我完全可以处理它。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
The collective intelligence of all the cars are going to flow into making the maps and navigation be super cool. You'll see the start and end of trips already use this technology pretty soon as part of the V15 release. And over the next several months, it's just going to take over all of the navigation functions, parking, destination handling, and just will know you better than you know yourself in some regard for the driving task. And I handle it fully.
好的。谢谢你，Ashok。最后一个问题是：现有工厂的当前生产速度是多少？你们预计会新建工厂吗？Lars，你要先回答吗？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Great. Thank you, Ashok. And then our last question is, what is the current production rate for existing factories? Do you anticipate building new ones? Lars, do you want to kick that off?
好的，我觉得Vaibov在开场时已经稍微提到了这一点。我可以说，我们的工厂本季度的运行速度达到了创纪录的水平。当然，我们只能以最慢的工序或部件的速度进行生产。Vaibov提到，我们正在积极管理生产的各个方面。正如我们在过去的电话会议中所说，我们已经在全球进行了战略投资，以在过去一年多时间里提升我们现有工厂的产能。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah, sure. I think Vaibov kind of touched a little bit on this in his opening remarks. And I'll say our factories are operating at record rates this quarter. And, of course, we can only build at the rate of the least lucky process or component. And Vaibov mentioned that we are actively managing all the aspects of production. You know, as we've spoken in our past calls, we've made strategic investments globally to increase rates of our current factories over the last year plus.
你知道，这个季度我们已经开始看到成果，我们预计这些投资将在未来几个季度继续见效。除此之外，我们还在德克萨斯的Giga工厂大力推进CyberCab项目的扩展。同时，我们也申请了适当的许可证，以扩建柏林的工厂。此外，正如Elon提到的，我们刚刚在里诺启动了新半挂车工厂。总之，是的，我们正在建设新的工厂，并且目标是在2030年前达到500万的目标，正如Elon所说。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And, you know, this quarter we are starting to see that and we expect that to continue in coming quarters as those investments come to fruition. I mean, beyond that, we've also are working to ramp CyberCab, obviously, in Giga, Texas. And we've applied for proper permits to expand the factories in Berlin. And as also Elon mentioned, we just started our new semi-factory in Reno. So, in short, we are building new factories, yes. And we're aiming to hit that $5 million goal by 2030, as Elon said.
好的，非常感谢你。说说看网站的问题就到这里。接下来我们将回答分析师的问题。请注意，正如Elon所说，今天我们不会回答有关与SpaceX潜在合并的问题。首先是来自RBC的Tom的问题。Tom，请你在准备好时解除静音。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Great. Thank you very much. That's it for the say.com questions. Now we will be going to analyst questions. As a reminder, as Elon said, we will not be addressing any questions today on a potential merger with SpaceX. With that, the first question comes from Tom from RBC. Tom, please unmute yourself when you're ready.
好的，谢谢你的提问。这是关于FSD（全自动驾驶）的。根据我的计算，北美地区的付费安装率大约是30%到40%。正如你所说，这已经成为推动更多汽车销售的一个动力。这个安装率远远超过其他汽车制造商的基于订阅的自动驾驶服务。我在想，会不会因为这样，你们反而可能成为自己成功的“受害者”，看到其他汽车制造商注意到你们的成功，并积极开发类似的L2 Plus类型产品？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah, thanks for taking the question. It's on FSD. So, the attached rate, I think according to my math, is like 30 to 40% in North America on a paid basis. It's becoming a flywheel, as you said, for more car sales. And the attached rate exceeds other automakers' subscription-based autonomy by a lot. I guess, in a weird way, could you guys be a victim of your own success and seeing other car makers noting the success and trying to aggressively come up with similar L2 Plus, you know, type products?
也许可以与英伟达或高通合作。如果这种合作发生，会导致全自动驾驶（FSD）价格下降吗？我觉得人们往往过于简单化地看待这个问题，以为软件问题很容易解决，其实不然。因为，我让 Ashok 来解释一下，但基本上，这是一个非常难解决的问题，超级难。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Maybe partnering with NVIDIA or Qualcomm. And if that happens, could that be deflationary for FSD pricing? I think people take this thing very simply that, you know, you can easily. If the software can be solved, it's not. It's not. Because, I mean, I'll let Ashok get into it, but basically, it's a very hard problem. It's a super hard problem.
是的，达到前90%并制作出一个看起来很酷的演示很容易，但当你涉及到这个问题的长尾部分时，它漫长得令人难以想象。任何理智的人都不应该尝试解决这个问题，因为它太困难，牵涉的尾巴又太长了。尤其是要达到一个安全的水平，比如能够安全驾驶数百万英里而不发生伤害，这将会是极其困难的。随着我们将无监督的FSD（全自动驾驶）推向更广泛的客户群，可能几年内都没有人能匹敌。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah, it's easy to get to the first 90% and make like a cool-looking demo, but when you get in the long tail of this problem, it's so long that people don't realize. Anyone with their same mind should not attempt to solve this problem. It's like so difficult and so long tailed. And especially to get to a safety point where you can drive safely for millions of miles with no injuries and so on, that's going to be extremely hard. As we release unsupervised FSD to the broader customer fleet, it's just going to be. I don't think anyone can match it in several years.
我想再说明一点，如果之前不够明确的话，就是现在在美国的展厅里，顾客们进店后不再询问能否购买Model 3, Model Y或者Cybertruck，他们问的是：“我们能体验一下全自动驾驶（FSD）吗？” 这已经成为一个主要的吸引力，因为它为那些之前开车不方便的人群带来了更多的灵活性。现在，他们通过使用全自动驾驶技术重新获得了自由。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And one other thing which I'll say, if it wasn't clear, that, you know, when, especially in our showrooms here in the US, customers are now coming in and saying, "Can we get into an FSD drive?" They're not asking for 3Y or Cybertruck. They're saying, "Can we get an FSD drive?" And that has become the key driver because what it does is it actually opens up a lot more flexibility for different parts of the population wherein they had issues driving conveniently before. Now they're getting their freedom back by being able to use FSD.
很多人都觉得这真的是个改变游戏规则的事情。如果你还没有尝试过，我每次都在说，一旦你试了之后，你就再也不会想开别的车了。汤姆，你有后续问题吗？有的。后续问题类似于关于中国的那个问题。我是说，在那里，自动驾驶几乎是标配。对于这个问题的回答也是类似的吗？那些汽车制造商是否无法开发出与你们的FSD（全自动驾驶）相似的产品？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And a lot of folks are just like. I mean, it's a game changer. I mean, if you haven't tried it, I keep saying it every time, if you do it, you won't be able to go back to driving any other car. Tom, do you have the follow-up? Yeah. Follow-up is similar to that question on China. I mean, there it seems like autonomy is like table stakes. Is it the same kind of answer on this question one that, you know, they're not going to be able. Those car makers aren't going to be able to develop similar products that you guys have had on FSD?
或者你觉得那里确实存在不同的定价动态？我的意思是，一开始，就像我们在这项技术上确实取得了明显的领先地位，而今天其他中国制造商没有这样的技术。你知道，我们正非常努力地争取在中国获得更广泛的FSD（全自动驾驶）批准。这很难，但你知道，对于某些汽车，我们已经能够实现FSD的运行。而无论谁在那试过这个技术，他们都明白它比任何竞争对手都要好得多。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Or do you see there that being definitely a different pricing dynamic? I mean, at the beginning, like definitely the leaf frog which we have in terms of this technology isn't there with any of the other Chinese OEMs today. And, you know, we're working very diligently to try and get broader, I mean, FSD approval in China. It is hard, but, you know, for certain cars, we have been able to have FSD operating. And whatever people have tried, whoever has tried it there, they understand how much better it is as compared to any of the competition.
事实上，我不知道你是否注意到，有一些竞争对手公司的首席执行官曾在美国体验过我们的全自动驾驶（FSD）。他们对FSD的功能感到震撼。因此，这也是类似的回答。而且我们对此非常重视，正在积极与中国的监管机构合作。我不知道你是否看到过，但我们之前发布过全自动驾驶的安全报告，还发布了无人监督的自动出租车安全报告。我们认为这是让人们置身于安全环境的正确方式。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And in fact, I don't know if you've seen this, there have been some competitor CEOs who have come and done FSD drives here in the U.S. And they themselves have been blown up as to what FSD is capable of doing. So, it is a similar answer. And again, we're not taking it lightly. We're actively working with the regulators in China. Because, I don't know if you saw this, but we did release our. We've released our safety report on FSD before. But we've also released our unsupervised or robot taxi safety report. We just think this is the right way to get people into a safe environment.
因为你知道有多少事故是由于司机不警觉造成的。而这也是我们保证减少全球伤亡的唯一方法。任何查看数据的监管者都会发现很难反驳这一点。太好了，非常感谢。接下来的问题来自沃尔夫的伊曼纽尔。伊曼纽尔，请取消静音。好的，谢谢。嗨，团队。关于Robotaxi，您谈到了如何实现无监督里程数每周两位数的持续增长。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Because you know the amount of accidents which happen because of drivers not being alert. And this is the only way we can ensure that there are less casualties in the world. And any regulator who looks at the data, it would be very hard for them to refute it. Great. Thanks so much. Our next question comes from Emmanuel from Wolf. Emmanuel, please unmute yourself. Great. Thank you. Hi, team. So, on Robotaxi, you've talked about sustaining a double-digit week-over-week gross in unsupervised miles.
我想知道您能不能帮我们把这个情况转换为自动驾驶出租车业务的收入和利润。假设您的行驶里程每周增长15%，到年底您可能会超过1,000万英里的总里程。我的意思是，需要多少英里的行驶量才能获得毛利润？我记得Elon在年初也提到过，利用指数增长法则，这项业务在2027年可能会成为我们收入和利润的重要组成部分。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I'm curious if there's a way you can triangulate that for us into revenue and maybe profitability of the robotaxi business. If you sustain, let's say, 15% week-over-week gross in these miles, you'll probably cross 10 million miles by the end of the year. How many miles would you need to generate gross profit? I mean, so I think Elon talked about this a little bit at the beginning that, you know, using exponential math, this would become a significant part of our revenue and profitability in 27.
好的。我会说，这个季度可能不会有太大影响。但是，如果你说，比如，我认为从第二季度开始就会变得明显，然后到明年第三或第四季度可能会变成一个大事情。是的，明白了。如果从车队规模的角度来考虑，我认为你的电动出租车生产线的年产能超过12.5万辆。生产刚刚开始。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. I would say it's not, like, going to move the needle this quarter. Yes. But if you say, like, maybe, I think it starts to become noticeable probably in Q2 and then probably a big deal by Q3 or Q4 of next year. Exactly. Got it. And then if I think about it in terms of, you know, fleet size, so I think your cyber cab line capacity is listed at more than 125,000 units a year. Production just recently started.
您认为网络计程车生产线的增长曲线会是什么样的？我的意思是，我会先开始讨论，然后也让Lars发表意见。不过，我要称赞我们的工程团队。他们设计了一款产品，因为我不仅和工程师交流，也和制造团队沟通过。他们认为在生产方面，这是一款非常容易扩展的产品。所以，扩展并不会是一个很大的挑战。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
How do you expect the ramp-up curve to be on the cyber cab line? I mean, I'll kick it off, but then I'll also let Lars chime in. But, you know, I would give kudos to the engineering team. They have designed a product because not only do I talk to the engineers, I also talk to the manufacturing guys. They think this is one of the easiest product for them to scale in terms of manufacturing. So scaling would not be that much of a challenge.
我认为我们现在的关键任务是确保获得所有必要的监管批准，以便可以尽快开始部署赛博出租车。再次提到，Lars，如果你有想补充的，随时可以加入。谢谢你的认可。我们的团队确实在赛博出租车的设计和制造上取得了巨大的成功。值得一提的是，我们的这款车的零部件数量比我们以往任何一款车减少了50%，这就意味着出错的几率也降低了50%。我们一直在测试赛博出租车的生产线，尝试看看我们能以多快的速度生产。现在的产能数据更像是我们目前运行能力的一个指标，但实际上这条生产线的产能要高得多。目前，我们是根据RoboTaxi服务的需求来制造车辆的。我和Ashok可以说是在竞赛，看看谁能占领先机。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I think the key thing which we're trying to make sure is that we have all the regulatory approvals where we can start deploying the cyber cabs as fast as we can produce them. And again, Lars, feel free to chime in. Yeah, thanks, I appreciate the accolades. The team definitely crushed it on the cyber cab design and manufacturing. Just to be your point, we have 50% less parts than any other vehicle we've ever built, so that's 50% less things to go wrong. We've definitely been bursting the cyber cab line to see how fast we can run it. I think the listed capacity is more of a, you know, rate at which we're capable of running today. But the actual capacity of that vehicle line is significantly higher. Right now we're building at the rate that the RoboTaxi service needs the vehicles. And, you know, I'll say Ashok and I are in a bit of a race with who's going to stay ahead.
他的发展呈指数级增长，月复一月。在车辆生产方面，我们也在努力实现同样的增长。好的，谢谢大家。接下来的问题来自摩根士丹利的安德鲁。安德鲁，请取消静音。好的，非常感谢你们接受我的提问。我想先从你们的能源业务开始。显然，在能源储存或Megapack方面，你们看到很大的需求。你们还有将自己的太阳能制造生产上线的目标。我希望能获得更多的见解，了解特斯拉在促进分布式电力和分布式计算方面的角色。我记得上个季度你们提到过一个Megapod产品。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
He's got exponential growth coming down the miles, you know, month over month. And we're going to look to meet that as well with the vehicle production. Great. Thanks, guys. The next question is going to come from Andrew from Morgan Stanley. Andrew, please unmute yourself. Great. Thanks so much for taking the question. So, I want to start on your energy business. You know, you're clearly seeing a lot of demand on the energy storage or Megapack side. And you've got some goals to bring on your own solar manufacturing. But I was just hoping to get a little bit more insight in terms of how you're thinking about Tesla's role in enabling both distributed power, but also distributed compute. I think last quarter you alluded to a Megapod product.
好的，希望能够更多了解您对这方面的想法，并最终了解这对特斯拉可能有多大的影响。我认为在这方面我们还处于早期阶段。我们还不知道事情将如何发展。我认为可能在第一或第二季度，我们会对此有更清晰的认识。但它确实具有很大的潜力，只是现在很难说具体有多大潜力。好的，明白。如果可以，再问一下关于RoboTaxi的问题。在奥斯汀，自从您推出了CyberCab以来，过去一个月左右似乎已经进入了一个转折点。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, just hoping to get a little bit more insight in terms of, you know, what you're envisioning there and ultimately how big this could be for Tesla. I think it's still early days on that front. We don't know the full extent of how, you know, what that'll, how that'll unfold. I think we'll have a better sense for that probably in, you know, maybe Q1 or Q2. But it does have a lot of potential. It's just hard to say how much potential right now. Okay, understood. And then maybe just a follow up on RoboTaxi. You know, it does seem like you've, you've kind of hit an inflection point here in Austin over the last month or so since you launched the CyberCab.
所以，一般来说，你是否认为现在的瓶颈主要是由于法规导致的，特别是在你考虑拓展到新地区的时候？也就是说，在软件方面的障碍大部分已经解决了吗？我有点好奇你会如何分类这些增长障碍，尤其是在今后几个月计划扩展的某些地区。我的意思是，我们确实还有一些软件上的挑战需要解决，Ashok可以谈谈这个问题。也许让Ashok来说吧，我想Simon也可以加入。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, would you generally say the bottlenecks at this point to growth are more regulatory driven as you think about expanding into new geographies and that you've kind of gotten through most of the hurdles on the software side? Just kind of curious how you would generally kind of categorize some of those growth hurdles in some of the incremental regions you're planning on scaling into over the next few months. I think the, I mean, there are still certain software challenges which we are still working through, you know, Ashok to talk about it. So, maybe Ashok, maybe. I guess Simon, yeah.
例如，一开始我们的无人驾驶出租车服务时间是从早上6点到晚上9点，然后我们把服务时间延长到了晚上10点、11点。现在，很快就会延长到凌晨2点。因此，我们正在逐步扩展无人驾驶出租车的服务时间，而这种扩展是由人工智能软件的能力推动的。我们只是想确保没有任何安全事故发生。这是我们的运营原则。即使存在最微小的风险，我们也不愿意承担。因此，我们在这方面非常谨慎，希望不会发生任何伤害或不良事件。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
For example, we are like initially at the RoboTaxi service from 6am to 9pm and then we expanded to 10pm, 11pm. Now it's going to be pretty soon 2am. So, we are slowly expanding the availability of RoboTaxi and that is driven by the capability of the AI software. And we just want to make sure that there's not a single safety incident. That is our operating principle. And even if there's the slightest possible risk at all, we don't like take on that risk. And so, we are very risk averse in that sense as in we want zero injuries or anything bad happening.
这就是我们的驱动原则。在今年剩余的时间里，我们将实现全天候24小时运营，并在高速公路上运行。我们认为，这一切对于扩大规模并为大量用户提供优质产品都是必要的。这也是为什么我们首先选择在多个城市扩展，目前我们在六个城市运营。同时，我们也在深入发展，比如在奥斯汀，我们拥有大量车辆。我们还将拓展到更多天气条件下的运作，包括日夜运营、高速公路和高速行驶。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And that is the driving principle. And we will see that over the rest of this year, we will unlock 24 x 7 operation, go to higher speed roads. And we think all of that is necessary to sort of like scale and offer a great product to a lot of users. And that's why we wanted to both do the breadth first of the multiple cities. We do six cities now. We are also doing the depth of like having a lot of vehicles in a single city, which is in Austin. And we will expand to more weather conditions, day and night conditions, highways and high speeds.
所有这些工作希望能在今年年底前完成。到那时，您将会看到更多的扩展和更多的城市被RoboTaxi覆盖。因此，这不仅仅是一个监管问题之类的事情，这是由技术驱动的。不过，我们确实看到这会很快成为监管问题，可能是在第一季度或第二季度的时间范围内。好的，谢谢大家。下一个问题来自德意志银行的Edison。Edison，请取消静音。好的，感谢您回答我们的提问。首先，我想问一下关于TerraFab的情况。我知道Elon提到您有一个2028年第二季度的目标。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And all of that will be done hopefully by the end of this year. At which point you will see a lot more scaling, a lot more cities being covered by RoboTaxi. So, it's not purely regulatory or something like that. It is technology driven. But we do see that pretty quickly become regulatory, perhaps in like Q1, Q2 timeframes. Great. Thanks, guys. The next question is going to come from Edison from Deutsche Bank. Edison, please unmute yourself. Great. Thank you for taking our questions. First, I want to ask about TerraFab. I know, Elon, you mentioned that you had an aspirational goal of 2Q28.
你有没有考虑过需要投入多少资金才能实现这个目标？另外，我们在实现过程中应该关注哪些里程碑？这将需要相当大规模的资金投入，尤其是对于TerraFab来说，投入一定会达到数百亿美元。不过，我们需要明确SpaceX和特斯拉在TerraFab的资金分摊比例。在2028年之前，资本设备的投入不会少于数百亿美元。而从长远来看，这个数字可能会超过1000亿美元。此外，我要补充一点，特斯拉正在建造的芯片工厂的第一批设备，我们实际上已经下了大部分订单。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Do you have a sense on how much capital needs to be invested to get there? And also, what kind of milestones we should be able to look out for on the way there? Well, it's going to be some pretty significant capital. It's certainly in the tens of billions for TerraFab. Although, we've got to figure out what the sort of relative split is between SpaceX and Tesla in terms of who pays for what at TerraFab. It's not going to be less than tens of billions in capital equipment, you know, up through early 2028. And then, it will probably be north of 100 billion long term. Yeah. And I'll just add, you know, the first set of equipment for the fab which Tesla is building, we've actually already placed most of the orders.
因此，当埃隆谈到明年年中的时候，他指的是第一个工厂，也就是研究工厂。研究工厂是用来试验如何操作设备这样的事情的。而真正的生产则预计在2028年年底完成，这在工厂标准上已经是相当快速的。我明白。关于Optimus，我知道你提到我们很快就能看到一段视频。虽然已经有了相当大的进展，但你们仍在进行一些改进。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And that's why when Elon was talking about middle of next year, that is from the first fab which. The research fab. The research fab. Research fab. Yeah. That's what we're just, we're just figuring out how to work the equipment type of thing. Yeah. But real production would be late 28, which is lightning fast by fab standards. I understand. And then just a quick follow up on Optimus, I know you mentioned that we could see a video soon. There's quite a bit of progress, but you're still making some refinements.
我想问一下，总的来说，你认为未来设计上的改动会主要发生在哪里？手部的问题仍然很突出吗？有什么特别需要指出的吗？是的，主要是难度的问题。Klaus，你为什么不来问这个问题呢？其实，手部是最具挑战性的硬件区域之一。大多数机电系统，我会说已经比较成熟了，意味着它们的设计已经相当可靠。而从机电角度来看，手部要比运动系统的执行器更复杂。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I guess just generally speaking, where do you see most of the design changes still happening going forward? Is it still the hand that's an issue? Anything you can call out there? Yeah. It's mostly the difficulty. I mean, Klaus, why don't you ask this question? So hand is one of the most challenging hardware areas, actually. Most of the electromechanical system, I would say, is relatively high confidence, meaning like that it has converted to something that works decently well. The hand is, from an electromechanical point of view, more complicated than actuators for the locomotion system, for example.
我们现在也在开发一些定制齿轮，这些齿轮在承载消费和可靠性方面承担着很大负担。而最主要的问题仍然集中在手部，特别是对手的设计和手指的精细调整。这是一个棘手的问题，因为人类有自我修复的能力——我们的手和身体会自我修复，但机器人却没有这样的能力。另外，我们的手指很柔软，皮肤里有很多传感器。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And also, there are some bespoke gears that are carrying a lot of burden for consumption and for reliability that we are developing still. And yeah, this would be the most. Yeah, it's mostly the hand. And just kind of the fine tuning of the hand design and the fingers especially. It's a hard problem because, you know, humans have self-repair. Like our hands repair, our body repairs itself, but robots don't. So you have to. And our fingers are kind of squishy and have lots of sensors in our skin.
制造一只既能够承受大量磨损又柔软到可以拾取精细物品的手非常困难，还需要配备各种传感器，并且在反复动作中不损坏这些传感器。有很多细节让你意识到，人的手在一天结束时是多么不可思议的东西。主要是从机电角度来看，手部是重点。当然，机器人的其他部分也在不断改进，但手部是主要的改进方向。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And it's hard to make a hand that can handle lots of wear and tear, but it's still squishy enough to pick up delicate objects and has all the sensors and doesn't damage the sensors when you, you know, do repeated actions. And there's a lot of little things that you realize actually what an incredible thing the human hand is at the end of the day. So it's mostly from an electromechanical standpoint, the hands. There are other things that are improving as well throughout the robot, but that's the main thing.
正如我之前提到的，我们将使用AI-5来升级机器人内置的智能系统，这是一项在智能方面的重大提升，将大大增强Optimus的能力。我以前说过，人形机器人可能成为地球上最大的产品。它的实用性可以大致看作是机电灵活性、人工智能软件和AI芯片硬件的多重结合。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then, as I mentioned, upgrading the intelligence, the onboard intelligence of the robot with AI-5, which is a big step change in intelligence that will help a lot with the capabilities of Optimus. So, you know, I've said before that, like, you know, humanoid robots, biggest product on Earth. And its usefulness will be, you know, it's rough approximation, multiple of the electromechanical dexterity, the AI software, and the AI chip hardware.
所有这三件事都在以指数级的速度改善。我觉得我们经常使用“指数级”这个词。这些的价值大致就是这三项相乘的结果。然后，Optimus机器人将会制造未来的Optimus机器人，这样你就有一个递归的函数。当你有一个递归的指数增长时，事情将会非常迅速地发展。它们可能从一个小的起点出发，但最终会增长到惊人的水平。我认为在某个时候，地球上的仿人机器人数量会超过人类。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And all three of those things are improving exponentially. I think we use that word a lot. And the value is, you know, roughly those three things multiplied by each other. And then the Optimus robots will build the future Optimus robots so you have a recursive function. So when you have a recursive multiplicative exponential, things will really grow extremely fast. They may start from a small base, but they're going to grow to crazy levels. And I think at some point there will be more humanoid robots on Earth than there are humans.
好的，非常感谢。下一个问题来自美银的亚历克斯。亚历克斯，请取消静音。您好，感谢您回答我们的问题。首先关于自动驾驶出租车的问题。看起来在大多数市场中，你们的自动驾驶出租车定价比竞争对手的共享出行服务和其他自动驾驶出租车运营商更低。这是否是由于你们在结构性成本上的优势，计划长期通过这种方式来获取市场份额？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Great. Thanks so much. The next question comes from Alex from Bank of America. Alex, please unmute yourself. Hi, thanks for taking our questions here. I guess just first on RoboTaxi. So it looks like for RoboTaxi, you're pricing lower than competitor rideshare and other RoboTaxi players in most markets. Is that the plan to do longer term to take market share given some of your structural cost advantages?
好的。我是说，记住，当你在进行比较时，你是在拿我们和那些有司机的网约车进行比较，而我们的车没有司机。而且，我们自己生产汽车，所以我们的成本结构是不同的。我在开场白中已经提到了这一点，现在再强调一下，只是不想太过重复。总之，我们的目标是接管所有类型的交通工具。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. I mean, remember, when you're comparing, you're comparing us with rideshare, which has a driver in there. And we don't. Plus, we are manufacturing the car ourselves. So our cost basis overall is different. And I think I said that in my opening remarks, and I'll say it again. Just don't want to be too repetitive. But basically, our goal is to take over any kind of transportation.
我的意思是，我认为除非我们被政府阻止，而这是有可能的，比如如果他们试图保护某个国内行业，否则特斯拉最终将在地球上任何允许自由运营的国家中完成大多数乘客的移动里程。是的，你可以回过头来看看这个预测，但我对这个预测很有信心。这真的很有帮助。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I mean, I think we, unless we are stopped by governments, which is certainly a possibility, like if they're trying to protect a domestic industry, I think Tesla will end up doing a majority of all passenger miles on Earth in any country where it is allowed to operate freely. Yeah. And you can come back and look at this prediction, but I feel confident about this prediction. That's really helpful.
然后就是我的后续问题。我想问的是关于这里的关键指标，就是无人监督状态下行驶的里程。自从7月底以来，这一指标的周增长率达到十几个百分点。你们是否仍然预计在今年剩下的时间里，这个指标会以两位数的周增长率继续上升？这种增长的动力是什么？看起来你们在加速扩展方面已经达到了一个舒适的水平。有多少增长归功于CyberCab的贡献，又有多少归因于最新版本的FSD在安全验证方面的改进呢？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then just my follow up question. I guess just on the key metric here. So unsupervised, miles driven. So, you know, I think it grew at a high teens weekly growth rate since late July. Is it still the expectation you'll continue to grow that at a double digit weekly rate through the balance of the year? And then what is really enabling that type of growth? It seems like you've definitely hit a comfort level in scaling much more rapidly. You know, how much of that is CyberCab? How much of that is better safety validation with the latest version of FSD?
关于车队构成，您是否预计CyberCab将在未来成为RoboTaxi车队的主要部分？ 是的。在可预见的未来，我们将继续进行规模化扩张。我们目前没有看到任何障碍。当然，仍然需要做一定的工作，但我们确实看到了在接下来的几个月内扩展到数百万辆车的清晰路径。这主要是因为我们在过去几年中所做的技术投资以及今年早些时候提到的V15技术架构。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then just on fleet composition, do you expect CyberCab to represent, you know, majority of the RoboTaxi fleet over time? Yes. We will continue the scaling for the foreseeable future. We don't see any hurdles along the way. Obviously, there's work required, but we do see a clear path towards scaling to millions of vehicles for the next several months. This is happening due to primarily the technology investments we have made over the last several years and also in V15 stack that we alluded to earlier this year.
就像所有的基础工作一样，很难看到，就像冰山一样。人们只能看到冰山的一角。背后有大量的工作投入其中。现在我们开始看到这些工作的成果，比如，发展神经网络，从人类中学习等等，所有这些都开始有了回报。所以你现在看到的，是多年来努力的结果，而不是仅仅在过去几个月内发生的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Like all of the foundations is like hard to see is like an iceberg. You know, people only see the tip of the iceberg. There's a ton of work that goes into it. And like now we are starting to see the payoff of all that work of like, you know, developing into a neural networks, learning from humans and so on. All of that is paying off. So that's what you're seeing that you're seeing the result of many years of work. It didn't just like happen in the last several months.
好的。同样的技术应该能扩展到全球的数百万辆汽车，只要我们被允许在这些地方运营。太好了。下一个问题来自新街的皮埃尔。皮埃尔，请取消静音。感谢你们回答这个问题。 我想回到之前的话题。我对美国有75%的汽车配备全自动驾驶这一点感到非常着迷。有趣的是，如果你买了这样的汽车，它们在销售当天可能就能产生大约7000美元的毛利润。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. And the same technology should scale to millions of vehicles across all over, like wherever we are allowed to operate. Great. Our next question is going to come from Pierre from New Street. Pierre, please unmute yourself. Thanks for taking the question, guys. I just want to come back. Like I'm very, really fascinated by 75% of like US cars selling with FSD. And the interesting thing that if you, if you get the car, they probably generate on sale, the day they sell like seven, about $7,000 of gross profits.
当然，FSD 每年产生的收入超过 1,000 美元。所以，它对每季度的数字几乎没有影响。虽然汽车已经售出，但在汽车的整个使用寿命中，FSD 可能至少使每辆车的利润翻倍。因此，我想要达到的目标是，我是否在以正确的方式看待这个问题？你们会不会在某个时候向我们披露 FSD 所代表的年度经常性收入？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But then, of course, FSD generates more than $1,000 a year. And so it does, it makes like a minimum, minimum impact on numbers in the quarters. The car is sold, but over the lifetime of the car, it probably at least doubles the profit per car. And so the place where I'm going, want to get to is, am I looking at it the right way? And are you at some point going to disclose for us like the annual recurring revenues that FSD represents?
我自己算了一下，我认为现在大概接近十亿美元，这个量级是对的。是的，我觉得你分享的数字是正确的。而且，随着进一步的扩展，我们将开始分享更多关于FSD的指标，不仅限于收入，还有其他重要指标。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And I did my own math and I'm thinking it's probably now approaching a billion dollars of is at the right order of magnitude. Yeah, I think the numbers which you shared are correct. And, you know, as it scales further, we will start sharing more metrics around FSD, not just the revenue, but also other key metrics around it.
好的，接下来我想快速了解一下，你们对留存率有一个大致的了解吗？你能告诉我们，大约有多少人在三到六个月后继续订阅月度服务？你们是否观察到司机退订的百分比？正如我之前提到的，我们会分享更多关于流失率的数据等。但我们现在没有这样做，是因为我们正在进行很多其他事情，特别是随着新国家的加入，我们提供了免费试用。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Okay. And as a quick follow-up, do you have like a good sense already? And can you tell us about like the retention rate? Like, do how many people like three or six months down the line stick to the monthly subscription? And if you see the percentage of drivers falling off? Yeah, I mean, you know, like I said, we will share more metrics around churn rates and whatnot. But the reason we are not doing it at this stage is there are a lot of things which we are doing, especially with new countries being added that we offer free trials.
当我提到在北美，交车时的附加率超过75%，我希望能明确表达这一点。这就像是我们交付的每辆车都会附带一个月的免费FSD订阅。即使有这个免费的选择，人们仍然在注册。太好了。我们的下一个问题来自Oppenheimer的Colin。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And one thing which I'd also like to make sure it's clear when I say in North America that more than 75% attached rate at the time of delivery. This is like every car which we're delivering comes with a month of free FSD subscription. And still people are signing up, even though they have that free available. Great. Our next question is going to come from Colin at Oppenheimer.
科林，请解除静音。非常感谢大家。你知道的，埃隆，你能谈谈关于推进Optimus生产的策略吗？即使手部设计还没有完全定型，也希望能开始一些训练。看起来即使手部设计尚未完善，你们在训练周期和完善一些模拟技术方面也还有很多工作可以做。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Colin, please unmute yourself. Thanks so much, guys. You know, Elon, can you talk about the strategy around ramping Optimus production just a little bit to start training, even if the hands aren't fully baked with the final design? It seems like there's a lot that you could end up doing in terms of the training cycle and maturing some of the simulation technology, even without perfected hands.
我们正在制造一种手部尚未完美的机器人。与此同时，我们也在对Optimus进行训练，并逐步解决供应链和生产系统的各个环节问题。我们在并行处理所有这些任务，比如在弗里蒙特工厂的大规模生产线和庞大的供应链。同时，我们还在微调设计和工程，同时开发AI软件。所有这些工作都在同步进行，我们正尽最大努力快速推进。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Well, that's what we're doing is we're building robots that do not have perfected hands. And we are making progress with Optimus training and ironing out all aspects of the supply chain and the production system. So we're doing all these things in parallel, like this giant production line at our Fremont factory, massive supply chain. Um, and, uh, and then, you know, fine tuning the, uh, the design and engineering, um, simultaneously with the, um, with, with the, uh, AI software. So all of these things are happening simultaneously. Um, and we're going as fast as humanly possible here.
嗯，我不认为会有任何人能造出一个能够与Optimus竞争的机器人，事实上，如果有人做到了，我会感到非常震惊。我们预计会在明年年底开始向客户交付Optimus。此外，你应该知道，不仅仅是在弗里蒙特工厂，我们也已经在奥斯汀开始建设一个新工厂，这个工厂将能够生产比弗里蒙特更多的机器人。正如Elon所说，我们正在尽一切努力，没有停下来，以最快的速度前进。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, I, I don't think anyone's going to have, and in fact, I, I'd be stunned if anyone has a robot that is remotely competitive with Optimus. Um, when we, we go, when we start delivering it to customers, which is likely to be towards the end of next year. Yeah. And you should know that, you know, not only the Fremont factory, we've also started constructing a factory here in Austin, which would be able to do a lot more robots as compared to the Fremont one. So going back to what Elon was saying, we're doing whatever we can, we're not stopping. We're just going at the fastest pace as we can.
当然。当人们在拉斯维加斯说“押宝未来”时，我们确实是在这样做。太棒了。那么关于半导体设备的产能可用性，您能谈谈您是如何与供应商合作应对的吗？显然，已经看到一些设备的定金被支付，并且设备正在交付。向前看，关税方面的发展是一个积极因素，但是你们是否有一些更积极的措施来为更大规模的生产做准备？我们应该如何在资本支出预算中考虑这个问题呢？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. We're definitely, we're definitely, as they say in Vegas, betting on the come. Yep. Awesome. And then, you know, in terms of the semi caps, um, you know, capacity availability, if you talk about how you're navigating that, you know, with the suppliers, you know, obviously seeing some, some deposits get put down on equipment and getting deliveries. Moving forward is, is a net positive on tariff out, but are there some more aggressive things that you can do to, to start getting ready for the larger ramp now? And how should we think about that going through the CapEx budget?
目前来说，这并不是一个巨大的影响。我认为资本支出实际上比我们预期的要稍微低一些。不过，它将在明年开始变得更有意义。然后到2028年时，这种影响会显著增加，规模可能达到数百亿。好的，嗯，我们的时间快到了。感谢大家的提问，我们期待下个季度与大家交流。非常感谢，再见。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It's not, it's, it's not a massive impact right now. I think CapEx is actually, it's actually ending up being a little lower than we anticipated. Um, but it, it, it will start to become more meaningful next year. And then that noticeable, like in the tens of billions in 28. All right. Um, well, yeah, we are coming up on time here. Um, we appreciate, uh, everyone's questions and we look forward to talking to you next quarter. Thank you very much. And goodbye.
好的。大家好。我正在把麦克风调好。我们一会儿会讨论一下刚才电话会议和股东信中的一些要点。大家可以告诉我音频效果如何。我采用了新的流程，所以切换时有点慢，所有窗口的位置都不一样。嘿，把猫带回来。哦，窗口有点卡了，大家可能看到我的叠加了。把猫带回来，不过不要带毛。他很无情。好吧，我已经习惯了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All right. Hey everybody. Just getting my microphone set up here. And, uh, we'll go through some of the takeaways from the call and from the shareholder letter a little bit earlier. Let me know if the audio is doing okay here. Got my new, new processes in place. So I'm a little bit slower on the changeovers. All my windows are differently positioned. Bring back the cat. Well, window glitched there a little bit. You guys can see my overlay. Um, back the cat, but not the hair. Uh, he has a ruthless, ruthless. Okay. Um, that's all right. I'm used to it.
好的，所以就像我们昨天做的一样。我在通话中提到了一些事情，我想回过头来稍微讨论一下。嗯，我们就试着这样做吧。听起来音频效果不错，太好了。希望大家能告诉我对转录和笔记有什么看法。我觉得转录可能会更有帮助，特别是为了确保我们能理解通话中说的所有内容。当然，我们也非常欢迎大家对这个新流程提供反馈。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So yeah, I just like we did yesterday. I think I highlighted some things throughout the call that I wanted to go back and just discuss a little bit briefly. Um, so we'll try to do that. Sounds like the audio is good. Awesome. Yeah. Hopefully let me know what you guys think about the transcription stuff versus the notes. I think this is probably more helpful, especially just to make sure that we can understand everything that's being said, um, throughout the call. So, but always appreciate any feedback with the new process.
嗯，所以再次基于我们在股东信中的评论。我知道股价有些下跌。我在聊天中看到一些评论，说可能是因为当前一些宏观因素导致的。嗯，我不太清楚。显然没时间去查证这些评论是否准确，不过或许值得关注一下。显然，股东信发布后股价表现不错，但即使在收益电话会前就确实有所下跌。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, so again, just kind of building off our comments from the shareholder letter. I know the stock is down a little bit. I saw some comments in the chat that maybe it was some macro things going on too at the moment. Um, I'm not aware. Haven't had time obviously to look at that, whether or not that's accurate or not, but, um, maybe worth taking a look at. Obviously though, the stock did well upon shareholder letter release. And then even before the earnings call definitely dropped off a little bit.
我认为在电话会议开始前，我们的情况大致持平，略有下降。现在电话会议结束后下降了百分之二点五。我不觉得在电话中有什么坏消息或者类似的东西。也没有太多新的信息。我想这可能只是延续了电话会议前已经开始的趋势，不管是什么原因导致的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I think we were roughly flat, slightly down heading right into the call. Now down two and a half percentage after the call. I don't know that there was anything in the call that was, I don't know, bad news or anything like that. Um, not a ton of really new information. I don't think either. So maybe just kind of continuation of that trend that had started before the call for whatever reason.
尽管如此，我认为这是一份非常强劲的财报。我认为，在北美，自动驾驶软件的安装率达到75%这一事实非常棒。此外，每月无人监督的机器人出租车行驶里程增长超过100%，这在过去四个月中一直持续，并且他们预计这种增长将在接下来的几个月继续，这也是非常了不起的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Regardless though, I thought it was super strong earnings report. I think the fact that the FSD attach rate is 75% in North America is awesome. I think the fact that month monthly growth in unsupervised robot taxi miles is, you know, more than a hundred percent, uh, which is continued over basically the last four months. And they seem to be, uh, guiding that that is expected to continue over the next few months, hopefully is, is awesome.
嗯，就像我之前说的，确实不需要太多次那种情况发生，特斯拉就能比Waymo更快地累积行驶里程。一旦达到那个拐点，我们可能看到的就是特斯拉在这个市场上占据主导地位。因此，我认为这次收益报告中的内容都支持了这个愿景。我觉得特斯拉也在其他方面做得很好，比如良好的汽车毛利率，强劲的需求和订单积压。他们提到这是过去四年来订单积压最多的一次，这相当令人印象深刻。所以我觉得很多事情都在朝着好的方向发展。我没有听到电话会议上有任何明显的负面信息。可能有些关于Optimus的东西，但我认为即便是到明年，大家对Optimus的期望也不高。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, like I said, it's, it's really not that many times that that needs to happen before Tesla is starting to accumulate miles more quickly than Waymo would be accumulating them. Um, which once that inflection point hits, if we get there, uh, it's, you know, difficult to see things going any other way than Tesla dominating that market to me. Um, so I think this earnings, this period, everything that was stated on the call, all supports sort of that vision. Um, I think that, you know, Tesla also supported things with good automotive gross margin, good demand, um, good order backlog. I think they said highest order backlog in the last four years, which is pretty impressive. So I think there's just a lot of things that are going well. Um, I'm not sure again, anything on the call that was able to really be perceived as, as a negative. I mean, maybe some of the optimist stuff, but I don't think optimist is really in many expectations, even for next year.
嗯，所以我不知道，那次通话的整体感觉是中立到略微积极，这取决于你在接听电话时的心态。总之，我觉得总体来说，我没有什么问题。我不知道，聊天内容似乎有点消极，但这种情况每个季度都会发生。我不知道实时聊天具体有什么问题，负面情绪很多，但视频下的实际评论要积极得多，这形成了一个奇怪的动态。我不太清楚为什么会这样。好吧，那我们来看看一些标注的评论。首先我标注的是，在埃隆的开场白中，提到特斯拉的目标是在2030年左右每年生产500万辆汽车。考虑到之前的指导意见，我没有把这作为对股票的投资依据。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, so I, I don't know, that seemed neutral to maybe slightly positive, depending on like what your frame of mind is on that stuff going into the call. So anyway, I think overall, I, I don't have any issues. I don't know. It seemed like chat is a little bit negative, but that tends to happen every, every quarter. I don't, I don't know what the deal is specifically with live chats. A lot of negativity, actual comments on the video is a lot more positive. It ends up being a weird dynamic. I'm not sure why that is. Um, okay. So let's just go through some of these flagged comments here. So I think, uh, first one I flagged here, uh, basically in Elon's opening remarks, that, uh, Tesla is aiming for 5 million vehicles a year by approximately 2030. Given previous guidance on that, like I'm not putting it on a stock in that.
嗯，如果他们能够在未来三到四年内做到这一点，我认为这将是非常强劲的年度增长。但从理论上讲，今天生产的一辆车应该比一年前生产的车具有更多的实用价值。你知道，前提是特斯拉能够真正将那辆旧车转换成机器人出租车，不过先不谈这种可能性。重点是，如果这500万辆中的很多都是全天候运营的网络出租车，每辆车在短时间内就跑了数万甚至数十万英里，那么这些车的实用性比一辆一生中90%时间都停在车库里的车辆要高。 所以，虽然每年生产500万辆车，但实际上可以承担本应由一千万或一千五百万辆车完成的交通运载任务。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, if they're able to do that in sort of the next three to four years, I think that would be really strong annual growth. But one vehicle that is produced today in theory should have a lot more utility than a vehicle that would have been produced a year ago. You know, pending Tesla being able to actually convert that older vehicle into a robot taxi, but setting that possibility aside. Point being is that if a lot of these 5 million vehicles are cyber cabs that are operating 24 seven and racking up, you know, tens and hundreds of thousands of miles per vehicle. Uh, a very quick period of time, like those vehicles have more utility than a vehicle that's sitting in a garage, you know, 90% of its life. So, um, 5 million vehicles a year, but really could, could be covering the transportation that, you know, 10 million or 15 million vehicles a year could, could be doing.
这可能是一个更好的表达方式。我认为特斯拉可能会随着时间的推移适应这种表达方式。但目前，这种表达方式是更容易让人理解的。然而，我觉得这种表达方式有点低估了其实际意义。比如，我们现在大约在200万到180万左右，而几年后达到500万：这听起来很不错。我认为这听起来很不错，但这仍然低估了在那时这一成就的实际意义。所以我只是想明确指出这一点。此外，埃隆再次强调，需求和能源依然强劲。我认为他们也在股东信里提到了这一点。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And that's probably a better way of framing it. I think that Tesla will probably adapt to that type of framing over time. But for right now, this is the context people would understand. Uh, but I think it kind of undersells the, the points of like, oh, okay, we're at, you know, 2 million ish, 1.8 million ish now getting up to 5 million in a few years. Like, sounds pretty good. I think that sounds pretty good. Still understates what that actual accomplishment would mean at that point in time though. So I just wanted to kind of make that point clear. Um, Elon emphasizing again, demand and energy is strong. I think they said that in the shareholder letter as well.
呃，预计其毛利率将显著提高。这是不同的，所以我想强调这一点，因为这与特斯拉过去所说的基本完全相反。他们过去基本上表示，随着规模的增长和交付量的增加，毛利率可能会有些压缩。而这次呢，情况完全相反，我认为这反映了对数据中心及其供电、制冷、能源需求的强劲需求，很可能还包括对能源存储产品的需求，而特斯拉在这方面处于非常有利的位置。看到这样的变化，我觉得非常好。此外，我知道很多人可能在持有特斯拉股票时感觉到了疲惫。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Uh, expect gross margins on that to increase meaningfully. This is different. So I wanted to emphasize that because this is basically the exact opposite of what Tesla has said in the past. They've basically said, Hey, like as scale grows here and we're delivering more, um, the gross margins will probably compress a little bit. Um, this is, you know, directly opposite of that, which I think speaks to the demand for data centers and power and cooling and energy around data centers. And probably all the demand that comes alongside that for energy storage products, which Tesla is in a very great position to be able to benefit from. So I think that was good to see. Um, and then, yeah, just under underlying this, I know a lot of people get, I don't know, burnt out, I guess on holding Tesla stock.
嗯，但这一直以来就是这样的，对吧？你可以去看看，嗯，让我读一下他的话。简单来说，经过多年的挣扎和相对平淡的时期，我认为我们现在正走向一个充满乐趣和显著增长的阶段。我觉得如果你回到他们今天分享的那个RoboTaxi页面，你会看到这种指数级增长的开端。如果这种趋势持续下去，我完全同意，前面会有很多乐趣。所以我认为这是一个令人兴奋的时期，正如我常说的，不要让随机的市场反应影响你对所分享信息的实际解读。因为我觉得这是一个很棒的电话会议或者业绩报告，电话会议非常好。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, but this is how it's always been, right? Like you can go and look at, well, let me just read his comments. So yeah, in a nutshell, after many years of sort of a grind and things being fairly flat, I think we're now headed for a lot of fun and significant growth. And I think if you go back to that RoboTaxi page that they shared today, like you're, you're just seeing the very, very beginning tip of that exponential growth there. If that continues, I totally agree. A lot of fun ahead. Um, so I think it's an exciting period, as I would always say, don't let like whatever random market reaction influence, uh, the actual interpretation of the information that is shared. Cause again, I think it was a great call or great earnings reports call was good.
没有太过疯狂的波动。我想。所以，我之前想表达的意思大概是，如果你回顾一下特斯拉股票的价格历史，大概从2014年到2019年这段时间，你可能会经历类似的情况。在这段时间里，股票价格基本持平，有时甚至是负增长。然而，当这些年间打造的东西，特别是Model 3和Model Y，开始腾飞时，股票就突然出现了爆炸式增长，随后业务和股价也跟着一起上涨。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Nothing too crazy in either direction. I don't think. Um, so I guess, I guess point being here that I was making before is if you go back and you look at sort of like Tesla, you know, price history of the stock, there's, there's periods of time where specifically from like, I don't know, 2014 to 2019, you could have gone through the same thing. You could have basically been flat over that period in some periods of time, even, even negative. Um, and then all of a sudden explosive growth in the stock as the things that were being built over those many years, particularly model three and model Y took off that then followed with the business and the stock as well.
所以重点是，没错，就像任何股票一样，空头有时也会得志。而且有时候事情会朝不同的方向发展。希望未来我们能看到这样的时期。不过，我认为从根本上看公司所取得的进展，以及再次提到Cyber Cab的推出，我觉得这基本上是一个历程的高潮。就像Ashok提到的，为了达到这个阶段，一路走来非常艰辛，投入了大量的工作。实际产品只是冰山一角，而特斯拉在冰山之下已经建设和研发了非常长的时间，现在终于要推向市场了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So it's point being is that, yeah, like bears can have their day as they can within, as they can with any stock. Um, and sometimes things go in the other direction. So hopefully we'll see a period like that in the future. Um, but I think just looking fundamentally at the progress that the business is making and again, launch of cyber cab, I think was a culmination of basically this, this comment here of like, there's, yeah, it's been a grind to get to this point. Um, and a lot of work as Ashok mentioned, like the actual product is just the tip of the iceberg and there's a whole whole iceberg beneath that the Tesla has been building and working on for a really, really, really long period of time. And that's now coming to market.
这真是令人兴奋。如果你还没有去过奥斯汀体验网络出租车，绝对应该找个时间去。或者，希望你甚至不需要去，因为希望在不久的将来，它会更靠近你，甚至就在你的城市里。接下来是下一个评论。我想这是关于Optimus的。埃隆说，我们已经在弗里蒙特部署了一个年产百万台的生产线的大部分设备。大家应该明白，这并不意味着那里现在就有一条年产百万台的生产线，而是为了将来达到这个目标所需的一些设备。大部分设备已经到位，不过要达到每周生产2万台的年化生产率可能还需要一年，甚至更长时间。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So it's exciting. Uh, again, if you haven't been to Austin to try cyber cab, definitely go at some point. Uh, or hopefully you won't even need to because hopefully it's closer or in your city, uh, soon enough. Um, next comment here. So I think this is on Optimus. Elon said that we have a, the vast majority of a million unit per line production line landed in Fremont right now. So just, I'm sure everyone understands that that doesn't mean that there's a million unit production line there. It's some of the equipment to be able to do that someday, essentially. Uh, and some is maybe understanding. It sounds like vast majority. So most of the equipment, um, but take probably a little, a year, maybe a little longer to get to that annualized rate to get to 20,000 units a week.
好的。我觉得可以稍微期待一下时间会更长一点。如果大部分设备现在才到，再加上他们在会议后期的一些评论，我认为时间会推迟。他们已经准备开始生产Optimus，但肯定还没达到每年生产一百万台的程度。我觉得埃隆的意思基本上是，我们想开始生产，以便从中获取经验，并且希望能同时平行开展很多其他事情。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. I would, I would say safe to bet on the, maybe a little longer part of that. Um, if most of that equipment's coming now and based on some of the other just commentary they shared later in the call, um, I think it's just, it's going to be later. I think that they're at a point where they're ready to start producing Optimus, but certainly, certainly not at a point where they're ready to start producing it at a million per year. Right. Like they, I think Elon basically said, you know, we want to start producing this. We want to get the lessons that that production will unlock. And we want to do a lot of things in parallel.
这样一来，同时进行的许多事情就让特斯拉在其目标、功能、最佳发展路径方面存在许多可能的延误。这其中有很多未知因素，我想这就是问题所在。所以，当有这么多未知和不确定性，特别是在如此新颖和革命性的产品上时，预计这个过程可能会比预期的时间要长一些是合理的。因此，我认为我们的预期时间可能需要延长，不过看起来他们确实在取得进展。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So that a lot of things in parallel leaves a lot of room for things to get delayed in terms of just what Tesla wants to do, how they want it to function, what the best path forward is. There's a lot of unknown there still, I guess is the point. So when there is, is that much unknown, that much uncertainty, especially with something that is so new, so revolutionary, like this product hopefully will be certainly, I think fair to expect it to take a little bit longer. So, uh, I would definitely take the over on, on that timeline, I guess would be the point there, but still, it definitely seems like they're making progress.
显然，我们都非常期待看到一个视频。我想我在其中提到了一些其他的事情，与此相关。所以，让我们回到我们之前的讨论。关于将Optimus推向其他公司的时间线，我确实认为到明年年底是比较合理的。不过，我认为到那时实现年产一百万台的目标并不现实。我不想直接拿它和半挂车进行比较，因为我们看到半挂车从最初的原型生产到交付和反馈之间经历了更长的时间。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Obviously we're all would be very excited to see a video. I think there's some other things I highlighted in there, um, kind of on that point. So let's see, get back to where we were. In terms of timeline of getting Optimus to other companies, I do think the end of next year is somewhat reasonable. I just don't think like a million unit per year production rate at that point in time is something that's going to happen. I don't want to compare it necessarily exactly to the semi, because I think that we saw semi go through a much longer period of time between sort of that like initial prototype production and delivery and feedback and sort of stuff like that.
基本上可以说是一个重新开发的周期，虽然这可能有点夸张，但从当初到现在的量产确实花了很长时间。我们大约一个月前或几周前举办的那个活动就是一个例子。虽然不能完全把它们进行对比，但我认为，特斯拉有可能会生产一小批Optimus机器人，并将这些机器人交付给一小部分客户。这和当初半挂卡车的做法很相似。这样可以收集大量反馈，进行学习，经过一番重新开发的过程，这个过程无论多么复杂，然后进入生产的下一个阶段。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
To, uh, to, uh, basically kind of like a redevelopment cycle or that's probably overstating it, but it took a long time to go from there to now the production that we're seeing, uh, and the event that we had, you know, a month ago or a few weeks ago. So not necessarily a hundred percent comparing it to that, but I think that it would be very reasonable for Tesla to produce some limited volume of Optimus robots, deliver those to some limited set of customers, very similar to what we saw with the semi. And then just collect a ton of feedback from that and learn, go through a redevelopment process of some sort, however intensive that is, and then, you know, get to the next phase of production.
部署那些机器人、收集反馈、根据反馈重新设计、并据此重新组织生产，这些过程可能需要一些时间，然后才能真正开始大规模生产。因此，我希望在2028年能看到Optimus生产出一百万台。但是如果让我预测，我认为实际产量会低得多。所以我们拭目以待。我认为保持低预期也给了更多积极惊喜的机会。而且我觉得分析师和市场在那个时间点上可能也没有对此抱有太高的期待。所以我想这就是现阶段大家对这种情况的看法。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And that could take a while just to deploy those robots, get the feedback, redesign, reorganize production accordingly with the redesign, and then start to actually produce in volume. So, um, again, just, I would love to see Optimus producing a million units in 2028. But I think that if I were to bet, I would bet, you know, way, way under that. So we'll see. Um, I think keeping the expectations low gives opportunity for, uh, a positive surprise too. And I don't think that analysts or the market really expect anything anywhere close to that at that timeframe anyway. So I think that's probably how things are kind of looked at, um, at the moment.
嗯，是的，所以在我说完这些之后，我只是强调了这一点，因为即使是埃隆也表示，他不想降低预期，他们在今天谈到的下一个阶段中仍然有很多事情需要完成。需要强调的是，在通用人型机器人方面，没有人能接近特斯拉。我看到很多关于Figure的消息，大家总是对Figure及其发布的所有演示感到兴奋。说实话，每当Figure发布新东西时，我都忍不住跃跃欲试。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, yeah, so right after I say all that, I just highlighted this because even Elon said, like, I, you know, don't want to, uh, temper expectations that there still is a lot to get through, uh, in sort of this next period that they were talking about today. Um, emphasize this, no one even close to Tesla with respect to a general purpose humanoid robots. I'd see so much stuff about figure and everyone's always so excited about figure and all these demos that they release. And man, I'm pretty much, if figure puts something out, I'm biting my tongue.
我不想表现得太消极，但我也想在表达自己观点时权衡一下。Figure是一家私人公司，所以影响可能较小，投资这样的公司也比较困难。不过，我知道世界上肯定有一些人已经这样做了或者想这样做。我不是其中之一。我可能会错，只是我觉得，从他们那里看到的一切都像是经过非常有策略的设计，以便让它听起来像是能够通用或者完全自主之类的东西。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I don't want to be negative, but I also try to weigh that against like sharing my opinion. Um, figure's a private company. So it's a little bit less impactful. It's a little bit more difficult to invest in a company like that, though. I know there are certainly, you know, people in this world that have done that or want to do that. I am not one of those people. Um, and I could be wrong. It's just, I think that everything that I see from them is there's, it's, it's done in a way like very strategically crafted way to be able to say something that sounds like it's basically general purpose or like completely autonomous or whatever.
但是，当你仔细观察时，会发现他们做了很多其他事情。我不太清楚该怎么形容，但这几乎像是他们设计了一个可以自动处理的场景。就像是把一个自动化的东西放在一个非常特定的情况下，然后说：“看，它是完全自动完成的。” 这有点道理，但如果你稍微改变一下场景，它还会正常工作吗？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But when you look a little bit closer, it's, there's, there's a lot of other things that they have done. I don't know how to describe it well, but it's, it's almost like they engineer a scenario that can be handled autonomously, right? It's, it's like putting it, putting an autonomous thing in like the one very specific situation that it would work in and then being like, hey, it did it fully autonomously. Kind of true, I guess, but if you change one little thing about the scene, does it then not work anymore?
如果是这样的话，那真的算是自主吗？这显然不是通用的。我想这就是我反复看到的情况。也许我这有点过于苛刻了。不过，我也不想过分强调这一点，因为这只是我的个人意见。没有内部渠道的话，我们甚至可能很难确定真相。这只是我的感觉，这让我有些担忧。我觉得那里的执行团队的过往业绩，嗯，不是所有的高管，但特别指其中一位的过往业绩，并不是特别能创造大量的收入。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And if that's the case, then is that really autonomous? It's certainly not general purpose. So I think that's basically what I can kind of see over and over with figure. Maybe that's being a little bit too harsh. Again, I don't want to overstate it because this is just an opinion. Um, it's not necessarily even possible to know for sure without, you know, inside access to the company or something like that. It's just the vibe that I get. And it concerns me. I think the track record of the executives there, um, not all executives, just speaking of one in particular, but track record there is not, not one that has generated a lot of revenue.
我想这可能是一个相对公正的说法。所以，总之，我的意思是，我不想过于严厉地批评。更多的是想表达一种谨慎，就像Elon在这里做的一样。是的，也许很容易，也许不那么容易，但确实可以做出一些看起来表面很有吸引力的演示。可能有些演示或技术的部分确实令人印象深刻。我确实认为，那些项目做了一些很酷的事情。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I guess this is probably a fairest way of saying that. So, um, anyway, point being, I don't want to be like super, super critical again. Um, more so just trying to express caution of like, like Elon is doing here around. Yeah, it's easy. Maybe not easy, but it's possible to put together demos that are maybe look impressive on the surface. Maybe some parts of the demos and the technology there are impressive. Like, I do think that figure has done some, some cool things.
这段话的大意可以翻译成中文如下：
"就好像并不是所有事情都不好。但是，我也认为这种普遍的看法反映了我对它的印象。我想这基本上就是Elon在这里想表达的意思。我对此深表认同。而且，我并不介意特斯拉没有做那些事情。这样做其实有一定的好处，因为它能够吸引注意力，同时也能吸引潜在的工程技术人才和招聘人才。"
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Like it's not all bad. Um, but I also think that it's sort of the general perception that I see. With respect to those kinds of things is elevated to my impression of it, I guess, is maybe a way to put it. I think that's basically what Elon is saying here. I think that it's something that I very strongly agree with. And like, I don't mind that Tesla is not doing those things. It's there. There's almost a merit to doing it like that because it does attract like attention attracts potential engineering talents and recruiting talents.
类似这样的事情。当然，投资者资本，呃，特斯拉可能不太需要，但小公司可能会需要。因此，这取决于不同公司的情况，游戏规则会有所不同。我只是认为这些事情很重要，需要考虑，而不是简单地说，哦，某家公司发布了一个视频，而特斯拉没有。所以认为某家公司肯定就更领先。这样的看法有点表面化，也可能不是特别准确地看待这个问题的方法。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Things like that. Uh, certainly investor capital, um, which Tesla is not necessarily in need of, but a smaller company would be. So it's a little bit of a different game that's being played depending on where things are at. I just think those things are important to think about and not be like, oh, figure released a video and Tesla didn't. So like figures definitely ahead. Like it's not, that's a very surface level and probably not super, I don't know, accurate way of looking at the situation.
综上所述，比如说，一旦特斯拉到了他们想要开始炫耀更多的时候，特别是考虑到他们在过去一年，一年半以来取得的所有进展，我当然对此非常兴奋。好吧，所以这是我们刚刚再次想要了解的事情。我认为上个季度这个问题也已经被澄清了。不过，他们似乎在这里表现得相当具体，提到他们分享的75%的数字是指注册付费订阅的人数。这并不意味着，如果你得到一个免费的一个月或者一年的FSD（全自动驾驶能力），那不包含在这个数字中。我认为他们的意思是，即使人们得到了那个免费月，也许甚至在那个免费月期间，他们已经决定继续注册FSD，而不是等到免费期结束。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All that said, like once Tesla gets to the point where they do want to start showing off more, especially with all of the progress that they've made in the last, you know, year, year and a half, since we've really seen some of those things. Um, I think it, I'm obviously very excited for that. Okay. So this was something we were just wondering about again. I think last quarter, this was also clarified, but I mean, there seem to be being pretty specific here that the 75% number that they share are signing up for paid subscriptions. It doesn't just mean that, oh, if you get a free month or free, free year or whatever of FSD, that does not seem to be included in this number. I think what they're saying is that even if people get that free month, maybe even during that free month, they're already just going ahead and signing up for FSD even before that ends.
然后，一旦他们这样做了，他们就被算入这个数字中，这是我对他们解释的理解。如果有人不同意，请告诉我。但我认为情况大概就是这样。如果是这样的话，那么75%的数字真是令人难以置信。太棒了。Pierre Faragou的问题大概就是问这个的，比如，这是否意味着我们有一个超级高利润的FSD订阅收入，可能在十亿美元左右的水平？特斯拉基本上回答说，是的，你的想法是正确的。随着这个数字随着时间的推移增长，我们将开始在报告中纳入更多这样的指标。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then once they do that, then they're being counted in this number was my perception of how they explained it. So people disagree with that, let me know. But I think that that seems to be the case. And if so, again, that 75% number is incredible. Amazing. Pierre Faragou and his question kind of asked about that, like, hey, this sort of implies this, you know, sort of run rates just on super high margin recurring FSD subscription revenue, maybe in the ballpark of a billion. Is that about right? And Tesla was basically like, yeah, you're, you know, that you're thinking about it correctly. And as that number grows over time, we're going to, you know, start to include more of those metrics in our reporting.
这非常酷，因为显然这一直以来都是看涨论的重要部分，对吧？无论是通过自动驾驶出租车（RoboTaxi）还是通过全自动驾驶（FSD）订阅，这都是高利润的收入，因为它属于软件收入。比如说，自动驾驶出租车是一种不同的情况，因为他们拥有和运营车队。但对于FSD来说，你已经卖出了汽车，并已经通过卖车赚钱。所有这些FSD收入基本上就是接近100%的毛利收入，甚至说是100%的毛利收入，也就是十亿美元的100%毛利收入。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
That's pretty cool because obviously this has been, you know, something that has been a massive part of the bull case forever, right? Like whether it's from RoboTaxi or from FSD subscriptions, however it's coming in, that revenue is super high margin because it's software, right? Like RoboTaxi is a different sort of equation because they're owning and operating the fleet. But for FSD, you already sold the car. You already made money selling the car. All of this FSD money is just basically, you know, 100% gross margin revenue or very close to, which is, yeah, a billion dollars of 100% margin revenue.
这就是说，如果你看看特斯拉的营业利润率，只有2.6%，你需要将其乘以大约40倍。也就是说，你需要400亿美元的收入才能产生与10亿美元年化经常性收入（ARR）自动驾驶订阅相同的营业收入。当然，这不是一个完美的比较，因为这400亿美元的收入和2.6%的营业利润率包括了所有的研发、销售和行政成本之类的东西。所以这并不是一个完全公平的比较，但我的意思是，正如大家所知道的，收入的来源是不同的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
That's, I mean, if you look at Tesla's operating margin, 2.6%, you need to times that by, you know, 40, 40 times roughly. So you need $40 billion of revenue to generate that same amount of operating income that a billion dollars of ARR FSD subscriptions would get you. Now that's not a perfect comparison because the 40 billion in this case and the 2.6% operating margin includes all your R&D and SG&A and all that sort of stuff. So it's not, not a fair comparison, but I'm just saying point being that not all revenue dollars, as everyone knows, created equal.
这意味着利润率非常高，并且能更快速地提升公司净利，同时迅速改变公司的整体状况。这正是那种投资者和所有人都喜欢的生意——持续收入的业务。这是一种非常好的商业模式。因此，看到这一业务对特斯拉的贡献开始变得可观，让人感到振奋。如果这种附加率保持不变并且车辆交付量增长，特别是当北美以外的地区获得更多批准时，这些附加率还可能提高，我认为这是非常令人激动的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And this is super high margin and that hits the bottom line a lot faster. So, and changes the picture of the business very quickly. That's the type of thing, like that's the type of business, recurring revenue business that, I mean, investors love and everyone loves. Cause it's just, it's just a great business. So it's exciting to see that start to, uh, start to become sizable for Tesla. And if these attach rates stay and a vehicle deliveries grow, and hopefully these attach rates even increase, especially as more approvals happen outside of North America, I think it's, it's super exciting.
再次强调一下，我们之前在股东信中谈到过这个问题，但我认为这一成绩远超人们在财报发布时的预期。我觉得，仅凭这一点，就让这次的盈利变得令人瞩目。再加上无人监督下机器人实现的指数级增长，这两方面都非常突出。嗯，好吧，我得在这份记录中找找需要强调的内容。接下来，这部分内容好像与能源有关。对，这里我想指出的是，尽管能源的毛利率有了相当显著的改善，但这似乎主要是因为一些一次性的原因。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So emphasizing that again, we talked about this with the shareholder letter, but I think that's well above what people would have expected coming into earnings. And I think almost that alone makes this earnings successful. That combined with like the robots actually unsupervised exponential growth, both very, very solid things. Um, all right, I gotta figure out my scrolling here, this transcript. All right. So this one I think is about energy. So yeah, this one just wanted to highlight that even though energy gross margin improved pretty significantly, it sounded like it was more one-time things.
关税退款，呃，在本季度由于对齐导致的保修下调得到了认可。他们过去曾讨论过某些与电池相关的成本将获得补偿。所以我认为这点很重要，在未来的几个季度中也要记住。尽管如我们之前所说，埃隆表示他们预期能源的毛利率将继续改善。我认为这一评论应该基于更标准的基线，而不包括这些一次性事件。我不会简单地理解为每个季度毛利率肯定会从33.1%提高，可能这并不是评论的本意。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Tariff refunded, uh, recognized in the quarter warranty true downs resulting from alignment. They had talked in the past about certain cell related costs to be reimbursed. So I think that that, uh, is important to keep in mind just like, you know, in future quarters. Although as we said earlier, Elon did say they expect continued improvement from energy gross margin. I assume that comment would be from more of a standardized baseline with some of these one-time things sort of taken out. I wouldn't just strictly take it as like, oh, it's gonna, for sure, every quarter improve from 33.1%. It's probably not how that was intended.
我们在股东信中也讨论过资本支出(CapEx)的问题。我试图查阅过相关信息。我记得之前的预期指导是250亿美元以上，我大概记得是250亿到300亿之间。所以我不确定他们是否具体说过，或者只是250亿美元以上。现在将资本支出的指导修订为今年的200亿美元。这是因为本季度的资本支出低于预期，甚至不到50亿美元。让我核对一下，确实是47亿美元。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
CapEx is one thing we talked about with the shareholder letter too. I did try to look this up. I think that previous guidance was 25 billion plus. I had 25 to 30 in my head. So I'm not sure if they specifically said that or if it was just 25 billion plus. Revising CapEx guidance to 20 billion now for the current year. So that follows the, I think lower than expected capital expenditures this quarter, which wasn't even, I don't even think it was five. Let me just double check. I don't even think it was 5 billion. Uh, yeah, 4.7 billion.
显然，在第二季度，我们看到从第一季度的大约25亿猛增到58亿。我想我们算了一下，好吧，我们可以在这里再快速算一遍。25亿加上58亿是83亿。这意味着在剩下的两个季度中至少还有170亿，这相当于每季度85亿。即使可能部分会集中在第四季度，但根据这个指引，在第三季度预计超过60到70亿是相当合理的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So obviously in Q2, we saw just a massive jump from about two and a half billion in Q1 to 5.8 in Q2. And I think we did the math that, okay, we can do it quick again here. Two and a half plus the 5.8 is 8.3. That would mean at least like 17 billion left for the remaining two quarters in the year, which would be like eight and a half billion a quarter. Now, maybe some of that would be backloaded in the fourth quarter. But even still, I mean, expecting something north of six to 7 billion for the third quarter would have been pretty reasonable based on that guidance.
译文：结果是4.7。所以第三季度的资本支出远低于预期，接下来也下调了第四季度的资本支出指引。现在，我确信我在上个季度曾说过，如果特斯拉觉得他们能获得不错的投资回报，我会非常高兴他们把这笔钱花在资本支出上，因为他们过去一直在投资资本上获得了惊人的回报。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And it came in at 4.7. So well below what you would have expected on the CapEx line in the third quarter and then lowering CapEx guidance for Q4. Now, I'm sure I said last quarter when they announced the CapEx guide that I would be certainly happy for Tesla to be able to, you know, spend that money on CapEx if they feel like they're going to get a good return on that money because they've always got, they've always returned an amazing return on invested capital.
所以，如果特斯拉因为看到好的投资机会而提高他们的资本支出预期，我对此没有任何问题。同样地，如果他们随后降低资本支出，对我来说这有点失望。就像是说，哦，好吧，上个季度你认为存在的资本支出机会可能变小了，这意味着机会可能比你之前想象的要少一点。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So I don't have any problem if Tesla has their CapEx guidance go up because they see good investment opportunities. So speaking the same way, if they're then lowering CapEx, to me, there's almost a little bit of disappointment of like, oh, okay, well, that capital expenditure opportunity that you thought that you had last quarter is maybe now smaller, which means maybe there's a little bit less opportunity than what you thought before.
另一种看法是，他们也许能够以更少的资本支出来更高效地把握同样的机会，这可能是最有利、最积极的解释。不过，我不确定我们能否从这些事情中得出任何结论。我认为，预算大幅增加这一事实表明，他们的实际开支可能有相当大的误差范围，可能需要花费更多或更少。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Another way to look at it is that maybe they're able to capture the same opportunity more efficiently with less capital expenditure that would be like the most favorable interpretation the most positive. I'm not sure that we can make any sort of conclusion from any of those things. I think the fact that the budget jumped so significantly would represent that there's probably a decent error bar in both directions on like what truly they needed to spend.
这个误差范围可能会缩小，也许这次只是碰巧处于这个范围的低端。我认为这种情况很有可能发生。但显然，我们并不了解具体情况。对我来说，我也不确定，保持中立态度。不过，我觉得市场的反应不够理想，这让我有些惊讶。毕竟，市场一般并不太喜欢资本支出，尤其是在资本支出超过现金流的时候。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And that error bar is probably come down and maybe it just happened to be on the lower end of that. I think that's pretty likely that that's the scenario that unfolded. But obviously we don't know. So for me, I don't know. I'm kind of neutral on it. But I think it's surprising that the market's maybe not more favorable because market doesn't really like CapEx, right? Just generally speaking, especially when CapEx is going to exceed cash flow.
这段话的大意是：这种情况并不太受欢迎，因为这并不是一个关于偿债能力的问题，而是在于资金的来源。如果资金不是来自于现有的现金或现金流，那就一定要从其他渠道获取。这意味着你要么借债，要么融资。如果人们知道你需要这样做，那么条件通常不会像你主动选择这样做时那么有利。主动选择可能是因为资金成本更低，而不是因为有资金需求。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Like that's something that very much is not really liked because then it's not necessarily a solvency type of a question, but it's like, all right, well, where are you getting that money if it's not coming from your cash on hand or from your cash flow? Because it's got to come from somewhere. So that either means you got to get some debt or you got to raise capital. If people know that you need to do that, your terms are generally not as favorable as if you're coming to it from a place of not need, but rather just, hey, this cost of capital is lower and you guys will give it to me.
好的，我要采取这个行动。这和"我真的需要这个来继续经营我的业务"是完全不同的情况。如果你处于这种情况，他们不得不支付更多的钱。当然，这并不是说特斯拉在这种情况下，因为他们手头有大量现金。显然，决定提高资本支出是他们可以做的选择，而不是必须去做的。所以，我并不是说这是他们过去或现在的状况，而是想指出的是，这种高资本支出预期有时可能会让市场略感紧张，主要是因为一些潜在的方向性因素。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Great. I'm going to take it. That's a very different thing than like, I really need this to keep doing my business. They're going to have to pay more if that's the type of situation you're in. Not that Tesla's in there. They've got a ton of cash on hand. Obviously, again, the decision to raise capital expenditures is the one that they're able to make and not required to do. So not saying that's the situation that they were in or are in, but point being those high CapEx guidances or guidance can definitely just cause a little bit of nerves in the market for some of those, you know, reasons sort of directionally speaking.
好的，让我们看看，我们刚才说到哪了？嗯，总之，我认为市场可能会喜欢这样的情况：资本支出（CapEx）有所下降，更接近于现金流预期。如果不是这样，那至少是指进行这些工作时不需要过多消耗现金余额，或者不需要大量外部资金来完成。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So let's see, where were we? Um, so anyway, I would think that the market would like that the CapEx is coming down a little bit more in line with probably what cash flow expectations would be. Uh, and if not, then at least something that doesn't require too much, you know, of a cash drawdown from the cash balance or any outside capital, uh, or a significant amount of outside capital to be able to accomplish.
嗯，然后显然他们谈到了确保能够筹集资金以满足任何资本需求，我想他们在上个季度也提到了这一点。嗯，好吧。嗯，Cyber Cab 很不错的更新。他们将在下个月，也就是十一月在达拉斯启动，然后在其他城市继续扩展，同时还有 Model Y 无人驾驶出租车。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, and then obviously they talked about, you know, securing capacity to be able to borrow, uh, for any capital needs that they have to, I think they mentioned that last quarter though, too. Um, okay. Um, okay. Cyber cab, nice update. They're launching next month. So November in Dallas, um, and then continuing to scale in other cities along with the model Y robo taxis.
我想，这大概就是目前我们所在的大约六个城市。此外，我认为在他们今天发布的自动驾驶出租车安全页面上，还提到了另外四个城市。我猜可能是按照这些城市接入自动驾驶出租车网络的时间顺序排列的，虽然不一定完全准确，但大致方向是这样的。我们还谈到了Optimus的视频，以及AI五芯片与Optimus的整合。如果一切按计划进行，预计在明年四月左右。我觉得这个时间节点挺值得关注的。虽然我知道您可能认为这对自动驾驶出租车来说不是特别重要。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So I think that would, you know, likely be the six ish, I think six cities that we're in right now. Um, and then I think on the robo taxi safety page, they released today, there were four other cities too, that they mentioned there. Probably just in order of when those, uh, cities kind of came online through robo taxi network would, would be my best guess. Maybe not precisely, but somewhat directionally in that order. Um, Optimus video, we talked about that integration of AI five chip and Optimus. If things go according to plan approximately April of next year, just thought that was interesting to highlight in terms of the timing there. I know what you want to said that that's not super important for robo taxi.
我认为，我们已经看到在某些情况下，自动驾驶出租车正在展示这一点：它们已经在无人监管的情况下行驶了数百万英里。不过，我认为，拥有这项技术绝对有利于他们的未来发展，特别是在他们决定需要或想要利用这项技术进行更广泛的覆盖时。关于无人监管的全自动驾驶，我想我原本试图调整讲者名称，但总之，主要讨论的是何时这项技术能够应用于消费者车辆。唯一的额外要求是确保，比如让消费者的Model Y车型能够参与到特斯拉的地理围栏和车队管理中，使其能够实现完全自动驾驶。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And I think we're seeing that demonstrated with the cyber cab operating, you know, multiple millions of miles now unsupervised. Uh, but still something that I think, you know, certainly isn't, isn't going to hurt their prospects to be able to have that technology. If they decide that you need it or want to utilize it for a broader coverage question, just around like unsupervised. Um, I think I was trying to fix the speaker names here, but, um, just around unsupervised FSD basically when maybe that could come to consumer vehicles. Um, so only additional requirement to make sure that, for example, the customer model wise can be part of the geofences and fleet management that Tesla has for it to be fully autonomous.
显然，它目前是运行在一个稍有不同的系统上，即便是FSD（完全自动驾驶）版本也是如此。版本现在有所不同，但在背后或底层还有一些其他略有不同的东西。所以，特斯拉需要整合这些东西。他们似乎认为大约在第二季度可以实现这一点。对我来说，这基本上意味着住在那些地理围栏区域附近的人，也许可以让他们的车辆作为自动驾驶出租车在那个区域内运行。那样的话真的挺酷的。另一个很不错的事情是，如果在这个时间段，即使你不把车作为自动驾驶出租车使用，也能在地理围栏内以无人监管的方式进行个人使用，那就真的非常棒了，特别是当希望那些地理围栏能够不断扩大时。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So obviously it's just kind of running on a slightly separate system, even the FSD versions are right now, but, uh, versions are different right now. Uh, but there's other stuff behind the scenes, uh, or underneath that, that is also a little bit different. So Tesla would need to integrate some of those things. Sounds like they're thinking that sometime around Q2 would be when they could do that, which to me, that's basically saying that people that are near those geofenced areas can maybe allow their vehicle to operate as a robo taxi within that geofence. Within that geofence, which would be cool. The other thing that would be really nice to see around this time would be if, even if you're not putting it out as a robo taxi, if you could still operate it in an unsupervised capacity, just for your own personal use in the geofence, like that would be really, really awesome, especially as hopefully those geofences continue to grow.
嗯，好的。关于网络出租车的一个问题，就是如何让客户进行购买和拥有。计划在今年年底之前把网络出租车交付给客户，这真是有点疯狂。毕竟今年年底离现在也不远了，大概还有10周左右？所以时间确实不多了。埃隆随后有点像是立刻评论说，这更可能是个车队项目。我想拉尔斯这里也提到了这一点。嗯，网络出租车主要会被用作交通服务。他们提到像Model 3和Model Y这样的车是会由个人拥有的，当然Roadster也是。但是绝大多数的网络出租车将会是特斯拉拥有的，被用作服务型交通工具。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, okay. So question on cyber cabs getting to customers, uh, for purchase and ownership. So trying to get cyber cabs to customers by the end of this year. That's pretty crazy. This end of this year is not far away. Uh, what are we 10 weeks away now? Something like that. So that's, that's not long. Um, Elon kind of commented sort of immediately after that, that it sounded like this would probably be more so sort of a fleet thing. And I think Lars even sort of mentioned it here too. Um, yeah, cyber cab primarily going to be something that is offered as transportation for service. They mentioned like three and why cars that you would own roadster, obviously vast majority of cyber cab stuff would be, you know, Tesla owned and transport, uh, transportation as a service.
所以我想我们在讨论是否要向客户交付一辆网约车时，根据他们提供的评论和背景信息，我认为更有可能是交付给车队客户，而不是像我这样随机的个人用户。而且，就算是在芝加哥，我也没办法用到它。这让我更加怀疑这会是更多的商业对商业类型的交易。我觉得这一部分是关于地图化的。这也是我长期以来一直在思考的问题：既然有这么多车辆在外面，它们基本上已经是你可能拥有的最佳地图工具。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So I assume when we're talking about like, all right, are we going to deliver a cyber cab to a customer from all the commentary and context that they provided there? I would think that that would more so be, um, you know, to like a fleet customer, right. Rather than some just random individual like me. Um, not that I can do anything with it here in Chicago right now. Anyway, um, which also kind of makes me suspect that that would be more of a business to business type of transaction. Um, okay, so I think this one was about the mapping. It's also a question I've wondered about for a long time. It's like, you've got all of these vehicles out there that are basically the best pops possible mapping thing that you could have.
嗯，因为你知道，现在基本上全世界的全景视频都已经采集到了，而且还有高频率的新视频不断地更新，这可能用于更新这些数据。所以我不知道特斯拉在地图方面的具体策略是什么，但我很期待看到他们在这方面的努力。可能有人会对此持批评态度，比如，“我以为你们说过不需要高清地图”。但这些是不同的事情，不一定是同一回事。特斯拉说他们不需要高清地图，并不意味着他们不能利用一些数据和技术来为无人出租车做些其他有益的事情。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, cause you've got, you know, surround video of basically the entire world at this point. Um, and a high frequency of new video coming in to be able to potentially update those. So I don't know what Tesla's approach here is with mapping, but I'm excited to see that they are, are doing this. People might be critical of this of like, I thought you guys said that you didn't need HD mapping. Like that different, different things, not necessarily the same thing, just because Tesla has said that they don't need HD mapping. It doesn't mean that they can't do other things that are beneficial for robot taxi with some of the data and technology that they are able to utilize.
所以，我完全不觉得这有任何矛盾。我相信有些人会认为有矛盾，但我很高兴他们开始研究这个问题。我们已经可以在V15版本中看到某些旅行的起点和终点功能了。对，停车、接送是特斯拉的一个重大关注点。但当你把背景从有人监督或无人监督的全自动驾驶转变到真正的机器人出租车服务时，这些是非常不同的一部分。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, um, I don't view that as contradictory at all. I'm sure some people would, but I'm excited that they're, you know, starting to work on this. Um, start to see, see this at the start and end of trips already as a part of the V15 release. So yeah, parking, uh, pickup and drop off. I'm sure that that's been something that's been a major focus for Tesla. That's a little bit different when you shift the context from sort of like supervised or unsupervised, even FSD to an actual robo taxi service. Like those are, you know, very different parts of the equation.
所以，我们会看看结果如何。但这是值得期待的第15版的一项进步。我刚才强调了这样一个点：任何监管者查看这些数据时，会发现很难驳斥。我想还有几个其他的亮点，我也是类似地强调过的，基本上是集体重申我意识到的一个观点。我想在过去的一个季度，尤其是在网络出租车发布之后，我逐渐意识到，特斯拉现在采取了一种非常谨慎的策略，这是有意为之的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So we'll see what comes of that. But one of the advancements for V15 to look forward to. I just highlighted this point about any regulator looking at the data. It'd be very hard to refute for them. Um, I think there were a couple other points that I similarly highlighted, basically just collectively reiterating sort of the point that I was realizing. I guess over the last quarter and sort of after cyber cab launch that. Tesla is taking a very cautious approach right now intentionally.
我想我们可能在第二季度的电话会议上谈过这个话题，但在过去几个月里，我的看法发生了变化。我真的很希望看到特斯拉以极快的速度和指数级的方式增长，就像我们从无人驾驶出租车所收集的数据中观察到的那样。我渴望看到这种增长速度比目前更快。但在这个过程中，我意识到，也许这并不是最好的计划。即使它是安全的，你仍然会面临一些风险，比如尾部风险。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I think we talked about this probably in the Q2 call, but. I think my perspective shifted somewhere along the way in the last few months of really like wanting to see Tesla ramp like super quickly, super exponentially. Basically what we're seeing anyway from the unsupervised robot taxi miles, but just wanting to see that like eagerness to see that ramp up more quickly, even than what it was doing and realized along the way that. Maybe that wouldn't even be the best plan because even if it is safe, you still have like tail. Like tail risk.
嗯，就是说，你还是存在着一小部分可能性会出问题。你希望能把这种可能性推迟到有足够数据证明它确实是一个极小、极小概率的风险之后。如果仅仅是个思想实验，想象一下你马上从零开始，每天运营一亿英里的行驶量，而你的风险是每一亿英里有一次事故，那么如果这种情况在最初六小时内就发生了，这就是问题所在。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, like you still have the small percentage possibility that something goes wrong. You want to like time shift that. That. Possibility to appoints after you have enough data to show that it is actually a small, super, super small tail risk type of a thing. Like if you just immediately are operating a hundred million miles a day, like just thought experiment, right? You go from zero to like a hundred million miles a day and your risk is, you know, one accident in a hundred million miles. And you just so happen to get that in the first six hours.
这，这不会是件好事，对吧？监管机构可能没有足够的数据来理解，比如，"这是什么意思？"就像是微乎其微的情况一样。这种极小的风险可能会导致安全问题。比如说，特斯拉在第一天推出自动驾驶出租车时就发生了一起致命事故。如果你能够慢慢积累数据，使得这些小概率风险（它们不可避免地会发生，对吧？在某个时候总会发生的）能够被有效处理，那就好了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It's, it's not going to be good, right? Like the regulators aren't going to have enough data to be like, what do you mean? It's just like infinitesimally small. This is amazing safety. It's going to be like, hey, Tesla on their first day of launching a robo taxi had like a fatal accident or something. All right. So if you can slowly accumulate the data. And make it so that any of those like small tail risk type of things would, which will inevitably happen, right? That's going to happen at some point.
即使不是无人驾驶出租车服务的错，也会发生一些不好的事情。出了问题，看起来就不好。这种事情可能发生在你已经收集足够的数据之后，你才能解释说，这种情况发生的风险极其小。就像交通工具在高速行驶时，往往会有一些风险一样。我们在过去很长一段时间里，积累了很多安全数据，显示这种情况非常罕见，因此我们应该被允许继续运营。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Something bad will happen, even if it's not like the fault of the robo taxi service, whatever. Something's going to happen that makes it look bad. So you want that to happen after you've collected enough data to basically go and say like, hey, this is the risk of this happening is so incredibly small. This is just statistically something that's inevitable. Like transportation at high speeds is inherently has some risk to it. And we have all of this safety to collect it over the last, you know, long time period that shows that this is extremely rare and we should be allowed to continue to operate.
这比我们刚才讨论的假设情况要有利得多。我希望这说得通。虽然对我来说，这一开始并不是特别直观，但是现在解释起来就像，“哦，对啊，显然应该是这样。” 我不确定用“领悟”来形容特斯拉是否恰当，但在我看来，他们显然走的就是这样的道路。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
That's a very it's a much stronger position to be in than the hypothetical one we just talked about. So I'm hoping that makes sense. It's something that wasn't like super intuitive to me, but now explaining it, it's like, oh, yeah, well, obviously it should be that way. I think that's probably sort of the. I don't know if realization is the right way to put it for Tesla either, but it just seems to me like very clear that that is sort of the path that they are on.
我认为我同意这种观点，这对我来说很有道理。所以，我仍然非常期待事情的发展，特别是机器人出租车无人驾驶里程的指数增长，因为我认为特斯拉在这方面采取的态度是只有在对系统的安全性非常有信心的情况下才会这么做。因此，他们在扩大规模的同时，也意识到可能会出现的时间变化情景，这两者结合起来让我对特斯拉的未来持非常乐观的态度。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And I think that I agree with that. It seems to make a lot of sense to me. So. Still very excited for things to ramp up, still super excited about the robot taxi unsupervised miles going exponential, because I think that Tesla is trying to do both of those things like only do that if they're super comfortable with sort of the safety of the system. So. The fact that they're still ramping exponentially while also being aware that of this like time shift type of scenario, I think is like both of those things combined to me to be sort of like very bullish and optimistic on how Tesla's viewing, viewing everything.
嗯，好吧，关于网络出租车产能的一些内容。在报告中列出的数字是12.5万，但是实际上生产线的产能要高得多。如果你关注他们关于网络出租车的宣传，这并不令人惊讶，因为这款车非常容易制造，主要就是为了高产量而设计的。因此，我认为这个12.5万或许不是现在的生产速度，而是他们预计在不久的将来会达到的水平，并且计划在此基础上继续增长。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Uh, okay. Just some things on cyber cab capacity here. So 125 K is what's listed in the report. Um, but actual capacity of the vehicle line is significantly higher. That's not surprising if you've listened to anything that they've said about cyber cab and how easy it is to manufacture, like is very much built to be a high, very high volume vehicle and production line. Um, so yeah, I think the, the one 25 is maybe not today's production rate, but sort of just like the, you know, rate that they expect to be at in the relatively near future and then continue to grow from there.
这段话主要讨论了服务扩展的计划。首先，他们计划将服务时间从目前的9点延长到午夜，随后会进一步延长，目标是实现全天候（24/7）运营。他们也强调了确保安全的重要性，希望避免任何安全事故。虽然表达上有些冗长，但这个重点已经说得很清楚。此外，24/7的运营和提高路速都是非常重要的，这些措施将有助于提高服务的价值。同时，他们也在不断拓展服务覆盖的城市范围。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
This one a little bit more on just sort of service expansion pretty soon going to be 2 AM. We've already seen this increase from 9 PM to midnight. Uh, so continuing to add that even later and then pretty soon getting that to, you know, 24 seven, they also said, and a shock here just said, we want to, you know, just make sure that there's not a single safety incident. Just ranted about that unsuccinctly or whatever, unsuccinct, unsuccinctly. I don't know. So I think that point's been made. Um, but just highlighted that to emphasize that points. Uh, and then yeah, 24 seven operation, higher speed roads, all, all really important things for, uh, basically the, the value of the service, I think continues to increase when that does happen. Just the breadth of multiple cities continue to expand. So all that sort of stuff.
嗯，特别是在时间框架上，希望能够在今年年底之前实现这类服务时间和服务领域的扩展。毕竟，年底很快就要到了。这其实是来自同行的一个问题，关于全自动驾驶（FSD）循环收入的计算。我们之前也提到过，这些想法是正确的。另外，再次重申一下，看起来75%的附加率确实是针对那些注册付费的人，也许他们还没有进行第一次付款，但计划这样做。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, but particularly on the timeframe, hoping that basically all of this sort of like expansion in terms of time of service, area of service, these types of things before the end of the year, uh, again, which is, you know, coming very quickly. Um, this was just a peers question on sort of like the math on FSD recurring revenue. So just highlighted that that was correct, which we talked about earlier. And then this again, just reiterating that it seems like the 75% attach rate is really for people that are signing up to pay. Maybe they haven't made their first payment yet, but are sort of scheduled to do that.
嗯，我觉得情况大致就是这样。然后，我想这就是全部了。总的来说，我对股东信感到非常满意，对他们今天发布的机器人出租车安全网站和报告也很满意。总体来说，我认为这对埃隆的公司和财报来说是相当不错的一周。我知道股票现在稍微跌了一点，但我们过去也见过这种情况，不知道明天会不会持续下跌，或者会反弹。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Uh, that's kind of how that seemed to me. Um, and then I think that was it. So again, I think just overall, very happy with the shareholder letter, very happy with the robot taxi safety sort of website and report that they released today. Um, and I think just overall, I think a pretty good week for Elon companies and earnings. Again, I know the stock is, is down a little bit right now. Well, we've seen this happen in the past and I don't know, could continue the same thing tomorrow, could reverse tomorrow.
嗯，总的来说，作为一个持有特斯拉股票已有13年的人，我对财报发布后的初期反应并不太担心。我认为从长期角度来看，有很多非常积极的事情，以及一些我们等待了很久的事物，无论是从产品方面还是业务方面，现在都开始显现出来。所以，我认为这是一个令人兴奋的时期。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, but ultimately, you know, as someone that's held Tesla shares for 13 years now, I'm not too concerned with the initial reaction of, of earnings reports. And I think just looking at this from like a long-term perspective, there's a lot of really positive things and a lot of things that we've been waiting a really long time for that are now starting to, uh, really make an appearance from a product perspective and from a business perspective. So it's, uh, I think it's an exciting period.
好的。嗯，我在想有没有其他需要注意的。快速浏览一下评论。好的，看看，我的直播只能回溯到一定程度。所以如果你有提交什么，哦，看到了。我先看一下超级留言，我们之前讨论了其中几个。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All right. Um, just trying to think if there's anything else here. Take a quick look through the, through the comments. All right. So let's see, I think my stream only goes back so far. So if you did submit a, oh, here we go. Just looking at the super chats here first. Um, so we talked about a couple of those.
呃，下一个问题不是关于2030年的目标吗，几年前是2000万辆。是的，完全正确。我是说，2025年的目标原本是500万辆，2030年则是2000万辆。这基本上是基于多年来50%的年复合增长率。我想，这个问题可能是在2021年或2022年被提出来的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Uh, next one wasn't the 2030 goal, 20 million cars a few years ago. Yeah. A hundred percent. I mean, 2025 was supposed to be 5 million. 2030 was supposed to be, uh, 20 million. And that was basically following a 50% compound annual growth rate for many years. Um, I think that question was asked maybe in 2021 or 2022, something like that.
嗯，这很久以来一直非常清楚，那种情况不太可能出现，大概可以追溯到两三年前。所以，我觉得这对任何人来说都不是什么新消息。嗯，我是说，随着信息的更新和情况的变化，重要的是要不断重新评估，并利用这些信息来判断，从投资的角度来看，是否对你个人的看法发生了改变。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Uh, it's been extremely clear for a long time that that wasn't going to be the case, probably going back out at least two to three years. So, um, I don't think that's news to anyone at this point. Um, yeah, I mean, as information comes in, as situations change, it's important to constantly reevaluate that and use that information to determine if it's something that, you know, the investment perspective for you as an individual has changed or not.
嗯，我想，特斯拉日报作为一个播客，其中一个目的就是每天去评估这些事情。在我看来，当然，我更希望特斯拉现在已经能够交付500万辆汽车，并且说在几年后将交付2000万辆。毫无疑问，那会更理想。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, I think that was, um, part of the purpose of, of Tesla daily as a podcast was just kind of evaluate those things on a day-to-day basis. Um, I think from my perspective, like certainly would I rather be at a point where Tesla's delivering 5 million cars right now and is saying that they're going to be delivering 20 million in a few years, like a hundred percent. That would be preferable.
但是与此同时，我也明白，确实有很多挑战，很多原因导致它没有实现。不管你如何分配这些问题的责任或归咎于什么，最终这些归因是取决于每个人的。对我来说，我对特斯拉的投资理念一直是将特斯拉视为电动车领域的领导者。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But at the same time, I also understand that there have been, you know, certainly plenty of challenges, plenty of reasons why that hasn't come to fruition. And, you know, whether, where you assign faults or blame or whatever other adjective you want to associate with those things. Um, ultimately that's, you know, up to each, each individual for me, what I've, I guess my investment thesis in Tesla has always been like, I view Tesla as the leader in electric vehicles.
我认为特斯拉是自动驾驶领域的领军者。这就是我想投资的原因，因为我坚信这很显然是未来交通的发展方向。这个看法对我来说从未改变。即使实现这一目标的过程可能不像最初想象的那样顺利。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I view Tesla as the leader in autonomy. That's what I want to be invested in because I think that's very clearly going to be the future of transportation. And that sort of story has never changed for me. That picture has never changed for me, even if the path along the way has maybe not materialized exactly how it was hoped to at one point.
我确实认为，有必要回顾过去所说过的一些事情，同时关注现在正在说的一些话，对当前的言论持有一种折扣或怀疑的态度。因为我们有时候会发现，过去以同样方式讨论过的事情并未实现。因此，那也是重要的信息，不应该被忽视。这就是我提出并讨论这个问题的原因。这是一个完全合理的问题。不过，对我来说，即使路径或时间安排有所改变，我的基本观点从未真正改变。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I do think it's fair to look at some of those things that have been said in the past and look at some of the things that are being said now and apply, I don't know, a discount or skepticism or whatever on things that are stated now. And just because we've seen that sometimes, sometimes things that were talked about in that same way in the past haven't come to fruition. Like that's important information too, and shouldn't just be like glossed over. That's why I'm bringing this up and talking about it. It's totally fair question. Um, but at the same time for me, like the thesis hasn't ever really changed, even if again, the path or the timing and all of that sort of stuff has.
这份财报特别让人兴奋，主要是因为在这一整年乃至最近几个月里，我感觉我们真的正处于实现那个低成本自动驾驶电动车愿景的时刻，这种车辆将能够大规模交付，并从根本上改变交通方式。而且，我觉得有趣的是，电动半挂卡车的进展似乎也正在悄然进行。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Uh, and I think that's, what's so exciting about this earnings report in particular, and just sort of this year in this last couple of months, is that I feel like it really is. It really is sort of the, the period of time now where we're entering fulfillment of that vision of a low cost autonomous electric vehicle that will be able to ship at scale and kind of change transportation forever. Right. And I think the semi is sort of like sneakily also happening at the same time, interestingly.
所以，即使这些目标是在许多年前制定的，而且我们很早就知道它们会有所不同，这并不影响我对奥斯汀存在的网络出租车的兴奋，以及我乘坐它时的体验。它比我坐过的任何一辆优步或Waymo都要好得多。而且，我99%的驾驶都是在使用全自动驾驶（FSD），我实际上可以现在就向你展示，我的驾驶中有98.4%是依赖于FSD的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So the fact that these things, these targets that were made many years ago that we already knew many years ago would, would be different. It doesn't change my excitement about cyber cab existing in Austin and the experience that I had riding in that and the fact that it's just so much better than any Uber or any Waymo that I've ever been in. Uh, the fact that I do 99% of my driving on FSD, which I could probably just show you right now, but, um, it's literally 98.4% of my driving is on FSD.
嗯，我想另外的1.6%主要是我让其他人因为各种原因开了我的车。所以，是的，我对特斯拉仍然有很多期待。另外，非常感谢你们在超级聊天中为剪发而赞助。特斯拉是否在利用奥斯汀作为自动驾驶出租车的试验场，然后将其推广到其他城市？看起来是这样的。感谢你的报道。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, and I think the other 1.6% is mostly other people that I've let like drive my car for whatever reason. Um, so yeah, um, plenty of reasons still that I'm excited about Tesla. Um, another super chat for haircut. Appreciate that. Um, is Tesla using Austin as a training ground for RoboTaxi then copy and paste it to other cities? Seems that way. Thanks for the coverage.
是的，我认为是这样的。我想，你知道，当然有了事后的视角来看，就像是他们有一些事情需要学习，比如说像RoboTaxi业务中的一些问题。他们谈到了这些问题，比如接客和送客、维护、清洁这一类的事情。就像特斯拉，你可以思考如何去做这些事情，但是直到你真正开始一个RoboTaxi服务之前，你是不会在实践中做到的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah, I think so. I think, you know, certainly with the benefit of hindsight too, it's like there are, there are things and they talked about it that they need to just learn as they have like a RoboTaxi business. Um, some of those things being like pick up and drop off, servicing, cleaning, all these things like Tesla is not, you can think about how to do them, but you haven't actually done them in practice until you'd start a RoboTaxi service.
所以我认为，从小规模开始，学习那些技能，然后再学会如何大规模地应用这些技能，然后进行类似“复制粘贴”的操作，显然是很有道理的。我认为大家都渴望这一切能尽快实现，包括我自己，但这确实是有道理的。我觉得，只要这种增长速度持续并保持稳定，一两年后，我们在服务、覆盖范围、里程数、收入和收益方面都会处于一个非常好的状态。所以，我觉得当前的路径是明智的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So I think starting in a small scale, learning those things, learning how to do those things at scale, and then sort of doing the copy and paste thing is, you know, obviously makes a lot of sense. I think everyone's eager for that to happen as quickly as possible or, or faster or whatever, uh, myself included, but it does make sense. And I think, you know, as long as this growth rate continues and is steady in a year or two, like we're going to be in a really great spot, uh, in terms of service and coverage and miles and revenue and earnings from all of those things. So, um, yeah, I think it makes sense the, sort of the path that's, it's being followed.
嗯，这里还有一个评论，只是觉得很遗憾，很多关于特斯拉的讨论变得非常政治化。我能理解你们想要避免这种情况。我看到维也纳有很多新的特斯拉车，但是大家都讨厌埃隆和特斯拉。嗯，显然不是所有人都这样，但在某些地方，这确实可能是人们的看法。我也认为，讨厌这些东西在某种程度上成了一种潮流。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, another comment here, just really sad that a lot of Tesla discussions become very political. Can understand you want to avoid that, uh, that the set, I see tons of new Teslas in Vienna, uh, but everyone hates Elon and Tesla. Uh, yeah, clearly not everyone. Um, but certainly, you know, in some areas that can, that can be the perception. I also think that it's sort of like, I don't know, in vogue to, to be a hater of those things.
也许这些人并不是真的讨厌这样做，而是他们认为这样可以在某些领域给他们带来社会认可。嗯，私下里，他们可能有不同的感受。尤其是如果他们自己拥有并驾驶特斯拉，他们可能只是觉得，啊，我就跟着大家一起说吧。所以我不知道。这不是我想过多参与的事情。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And maybe it's not so much that those people actually hate that, but more so that they think that that gives them social credits in some areas. Um, privately, maybe they feel differently, right? Especially if they're literally owning and driving a Tesla, they might just be like, ah, I'll say this cause everyone else is saying it, you know? So I don't know. Yeah. It's not something I try to get into too much.
嗯，我想，你知道，这周在沃尔特·艾萨克森的采访中，埃隆表达了一些对当时处理某些事情方式的遗憾。那时候，他受到了很多批评。所以，有时候你必须自己从中学习。不过，我觉得这和公司的业务以及进展有关，最近公司有很多好消息和令人兴奋的事情。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, I think, you know, Elon this, this week on the Walter Isaacson interview, just expressed a little bit of regret about how some of those things were handled, um, at that time, which, you know, I think there was a lot of criticism of, of him for, for that at the time. So, um, sometimes you gotta learn your own lessons, I guess, but, uh, yeah, I think that again, as it relates to the business and the progress in the business and all that sort of stuff, like, I think just a lot of, a lot of really good news recently for, for the company and, uh, a lot of things to be excited about.
好的，我想这就是所有的超级留言了。我快速查看一下还有没有其他的东西。好的，我已经直播了三个半小时，所以我想今天就到这里吧。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, uh, okay. I think that's all the super chats. Just see if there's anything else here real quick. All right. I've been streaming for three and a half hours. So I think we'll call it for today.
这个星期过得很愉快，昨天和今天再次回到这里直播。非常感谢大家的收看和支持，这对我来说真的意义重大。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Uh, but it's been fun this week, both yesterday and today being back here and streaming. Always appreciate you guys tuning in. Appreciate the support really does mean a lot.
嗯，我总是期待每个季度的到来。这对SpaceX和特斯拉来说都是一个令人兴奋的季度。我们期待下个季度的到来。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, and it's always something I look forward to coming back to each quarter. Uh, and it's definitely been an exciting quarter for both, both SpaceX and for Tesla. So we'll look forward to next quarter.
不确定期间是否会有重大新闻需要我报道。如果有，我会尽力去做。如果没有，我们就期待在一月下旬的第四季度财报发布时再聚吧。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Not sure if there'll be any major news or anything for me to cover in between. If there, if there is, I'll try to do that. But if not, we'll look forward to, uh, hanging out again for the, uh, Q4 earnings sometime late in January.
好的，谢谢大家。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All right. Thanks everybody.