This video provides a preview of SpaceX's Q2 earnings report, discusses upcoming insider share lockup expirations, and shares financial media commentary, along with the host's personal investment philosophy.
**SpaceX Q2 Earnings Report Details:**
* **Report Release:** After the US stock market closes on Tuesday, August 4th.
* **Earnings Call:** 3:30 PM Central Time / 4:30 PM Eastern Time on the same day.
* **How to Listen Live:** Head to ir.spacex.com (pre-registration recommended).
* **Host's Plan:** Will post highlights and a full recap of the earnings call shortly after it ends.
* **Market Anticipation:** Expect high volatility around the report and call. SpaceX stock closed up nearly 6% on the day of recording, but is still well below its IPO price.
**SpaceX Insider Share Lockup Expirations (CNBC & Host's Clarifications):**
* **Context:** SpaceX shares are reportedly at their lowest level since going public, with lockup expirations being a significant factor.
* **First Lockup:** The first stock lockup expires on Thursday, August 6th (two full days after the earnings report).
* This makes 911 million shares (owned by about 20% of insiders and early investors) eligible to sell.
* For comparison, SpaceX sold 629 million shares (less than 5% of shares outstanding) in its IPO.
* **Float Expansion:** The public float is "poised to triple" through the end of September, with supply continuing to swell until next June. Morningstar estimates the total share count could climb to over 6.4 billion shares.
* **Stock Performance:** SpaceX shares have tumbled about 20% from the IPO price and more than 50% from their intraday high, largely due to anticipation of these lockups.
* **Short Interest:** S3 Partners reports that short sellers currently hold 32% of the company's publicly tradable float.
* **Conditional Unlock (Did Not Trigger):** An additional 10% of shares would have unlocked if the closing price was equal to or more than $175.50 (30% above the $135 IPO price) on at least five of the ten consecutive trading days ending on the first earnings release date. This condition was not met.
* **Subsequent Unlocks:**
* Additional 7% unlocks August 20th/21st.
* Another 7% on September 9th/10th.
* Another 7% later in September.
* Another 7% early October.
* Another 7% later October.
* An additional 28% late October/early November (after the Q3 earnings).
* The rest in early December.
* **Likely Outcome:** While not all eligible shares will be sold, some selling from insiders is highly probable at each lockup expiry. However, large investors are likely waiting to buy around these expiries.
**CNBC's Earnings Watch Points:**
* **Key Areas:** Starlink results, CapEx plans, and guidance for Starship (especially after a successful 13th test flight).
* **Investor Question:** How much will Starlink subscriber growth, NeoCloud deals (e.g., with Anthropic and Google), and multi-billion dollar government contracts offset the cash burn associated with the AI buildup?
* **Market Expectation:** The options market estimates a roughly 15% move in the stock post-earnings.
* **Loss Expected:** Analysts expect the company to report a loss, with the *level* of the loss being important for understanding its fundamental value.
* **Concerns:** CNBC analysts expressed discomfort with the lockup expiration occurring just 48 hours after earnings, and with Elon Musk's own stake unlocking into 2027.
**Host's Investment Strategy & Outlook:**
* The host has built a position in SpaceX, averaging into the stock at various price points (including the IPO price of $135 and lower prices like $108). His average price is currently $128.
* He emphasizes his long-term 20-year valuation model for SpaceX (and Tesla) as guiding his decisions, allowing him to buy with confidence rather than trying to time the market.
* He likens his SpaceX strategy to his successful long-term investment in Tesla, where he bought consistently over a decade without attempting to time the market.
* He strongly believes the market, including CNBC, is overlooking the significant potential of SpaceX's AI compute business.
* He highlights that sitting on the sidelines due to lockup fears could lead to missing substantial gains if SpaceX's revenue significantly increases from AI compute in the coming quarters.