Huge Day As SpaceX Set To Report Earnings + Stock Lockups Info

以下是内容的中文翻译： 本视频预告了SpaceX的第二季度财报，讨论了即将到来的内部人士股票锁定期到期情况，并分享了金融媒体的评论以及主持人个人的投资理念。 **SpaceX第二季度财报详情：** * **财报发布：** 美股在8月4日星期二收盘后。 * **财报电话会议：** 同日中部时间下午3:30 / 东部时间下午4:30。 * **如何收听直播：** 访问ir.spacex.com（建议提前注册）。 * **主持人计划：** 财报电话会议结束后不久，将发布要点和完整回顾。 * **市场预期：** 预计财报发布和电话会议前后市场将出现高波动性。SpaceX股价在录制当天收涨近6%，但仍远低于其IPO发行价。 **SpaceX内部人士股票锁定期到期（CNBC与主持人澄清）：** * **背景：** 据报道，SpaceX的股价已跌至上市以来的最低点，而锁定期到期是一个重要因素。 * **首次锁定期：** 首次股票锁定期将于8月6日星期四（财报发布整整两天后）到期。 * 这使得9.11亿股股票（由约20%的内部人士和早期投资者持有）有资格出售。 * 作为比较，SpaceX在IPO中出售了6.29亿股（占已发行股份的不到5%）。 * **流通股扩大：** 公众流通股有望在9月底前“翻三倍”，供应量将持续增长直至明年6月。晨星公司估计，总股本可能攀升至超过64亿股。 * **股价表现：** SpaceX股价较IPO发行价已下跌约20%，较盘中高点下跌逾50%，这很大程度上是由于对这些锁定期到期的预期。 * **做空持仓：** S3 Partners报告称，做空者目前持有该公司可公开交易流通股的32%。 * **有条件解锁（未触发）：** 如果在截至首次财报发布日的十个连续交易日中，至少有五个交易日的收盘价等于或高于175.50美元（较135美元的IPO价格高出30%），则会额外解锁10%的股票。此条件未满足。 * **后续解锁：** * 8月20日/21日额外解锁7%。 * 9月9日/10日再解锁7%。 * 9月下旬再解锁7%。 * 10月上旬再解锁7%。 * 10月下旬再解锁7%。 * 10月下旬/11月上旬（第三季度财报后）额外解锁28%。 * 其余部分在12月上旬解锁。 * **可能结果：** 尽管并非所有符合条件的股票都会被出售，但在每次锁定期到期时，内部人士抛售一些股票的可能性很高。然而，大型投资者很可能正在等待在这些到期日附近进行买入。 **CNBC的财报关注要点：** * **关注要点：** 星链（Starlink）业绩、资本支出（CapEx）计划以及星舰（Starship）的指引（尤其是在第13次试飞成功后）。 * **投资者问题：** 星链用户增长、NeoCloud交易（例如与Anthropic和谷歌的合作）以及数十亿美元的政府合同，能在多大程度上抵消与AI建设相关的现金消耗？ * **市场预期：** 期权市场估计，财报发布后该股票将出现约15%的波动。 * **预计亏损：** 分析师预计该公司将报告亏损，而亏损的**程度**对于理解其基本价值至关重要。 * **担忧：** CNBC分析师对锁定期到期仅在财报发布后48小时发生，以及埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）个人持股的解锁将持续到2027年表示不安。 **主持人的投资策略与展望：** * 主持人已经在SpaceX建立了仓位，在不同价位（包括135美元的IPO发行价和108美元等更低价格）分批买入该股票。他目前的平均成本为128美元。 * 他强调，他为SpaceX（和特斯拉）建立的20年长期估值模型指导着他的决策，使他能够自信地买入，而不是试图择时。 * 他将自己的SpaceX策略比作在特斯拉的成功长期投资，他在十年间持续买入，从未试图择时。 * 他坚信，包括CNBC在内的市场正在忽视SpaceX人工智能计算业务的巨大潜力。 * 他指出，如果SpaceX的人工智能计算收入在未来几个季度大幅增长，那么由于对锁定期到期的担忧而袖手旁观，可能会导致错失可观的收益。

This video provides a preview of SpaceX's Q2 earnings report, discusses upcoming insider share lockup expirations, and shares financial media commentary, along with the host's personal investment philosophy. **SpaceX Q2 Earnings Report Details:** * **Report Release:** After the US stock market closes on Tuesday, August 4th. * **Earnings Call:** 3:30 PM Central Time / 4:30 PM Eastern Time on the same day. * **How to Listen Live:** Head to ir.spacex.com (pre-registration recommended). * **Host's Plan:** Will post highlights and a full recap of the earnings call shortly after it ends. * **Market Anticipation:** Expect high volatility around the report and call. SpaceX stock closed up nearly 6% on the day of recording, but is still well below its IPO price. **SpaceX Insider Share Lockup Expirations (CNBC & Host's Clarifications):** * **Context:** SpaceX shares are reportedly at their lowest level since going public, with lockup expirations being a significant factor. * **First Lockup:** The first stock lockup expires on Thursday, August 6th (two full days after the earnings report). * This makes 911 million shares (owned by about 20% of insiders and early investors) eligible to sell. * For comparison, SpaceX sold 629 million shares (less than 5% of shares outstanding) in its IPO. * **Float Expansion:** The public float is "poised to triple" through the end of September, with supply continuing to swell until next June. Morningstar estimates the total share count could climb to over 6.4 billion shares. * **Stock Performance:** SpaceX shares have tumbled about 20% from the IPO price and more than 50% from their intraday high, largely due to anticipation of these lockups. * **Short Interest:** S3 Partners reports that short sellers currently hold 32% of the company's publicly tradable float. * **Conditional Unlock (Did Not Trigger):** An additional 10% of shares would have unlocked if the closing price was equal to or more than $175.50 (30% above the $135 IPO price) on at least five of the ten consecutive trading days ending on the first earnings release date. This condition was not met. * **Subsequent Unlocks:** * Additional 7% unlocks August 20th/21st. * Another 7% on September 9th/10th. * Another 7% later in September. * Another 7% early October. * Another 7% later October. * An additional 28% late October/early November (after the Q3 earnings). * The rest in early December. * **Likely Outcome:** While not all eligible shares will be sold, some selling from insiders is highly probable at each lockup expiry. However, large investors are likely waiting to buy around these expiries. **CNBC's Earnings Watch Points:** * **Key Areas:** Starlink results, CapEx plans, and guidance for Starship (especially after a successful 13th test flight). * **Investor Question:** How much will Starlink subscriber growth, NeoCloud deals (e.g., with Anthropic and Google), and multi-billion dollar government contracts offset the cash burn associated with the AI buildup? * **Market Expectation:** The options market estimates a roughly 15% move in the stock post-earnings. * **Loss Expected:** Analysts expect the company to report a loss, with the *level* of the loss being important for understanding its fundamental value. * **Concerns:** CNBC analysts expressed discomfort with the lockup expiration occurring just 48 hours after earnings, and with Elon Musk's own stake unlocking into 2027. **Host's Investment Strategy & Outlook:** * The host has built a position in SpaceX, averaging into the stock at various price points (including the IPO price of $135 and lower prices like $108). His average price is currently $128. * He emphasizes his long-term 20-year valuation model for SpaceX (and Tesla) as guiding his decisions, allowing him to buy with confidence rather than trying to time the market. * He likens his SpaceX strategy to his successful long-term investment in Tesla, where he bought consistently over a decade without attempting to time the market. * He strongly believes the market, including CNBC, is overlooking the significant potential of SpaceX's AI compute business. * He highlights that sitting on the sidelines due to lockup fears could lead to missing substantial gains if SpaceX's revenue significantly increases from AI compute in the coming quarters.