Dylan Loomis, host of Electrified, is officially adjusting his previous prediction for the Cybercab's market entry. After further research, he now believes his initial September 15th prediction was wrong, primarily due to a re-evaluation of the technical challenges.
**Current Robotaxi Network Status & Challenges:**
* **Dallas, TX:**
* A robotaxi got stuck blocking a road for almost a minute, an incident Spencer called "the worst robotaxi move" he'd seen recently.
* Reuters reported long wait times, no availability, and drop-off spots far from destinations.
* One reporter tried booking for 30 minutes, got "high demand" or "service unavailable," eventually got a ride with a 19-minute wait after 36 minutes of trying.
* Navigation issues: A car was confused by a "do not enter" sign, missed a turn, and circled, requiring Tesla support to intervene for a left turn.
* Another 20-minute ride took nearly two hours because the car wouldn't go to City Hall, an area Tesla isn't serving yet for testing.
* Tesla agents confirm the service is still in "beta."
* **Austin, TX:**
* Customers often wait over 30 minutes or can't get a ride at all.
* Tesla operates about 50 vehicles, compared to Waymo's 250+ in Austin.
* Wait times: over 15 minutes about 50% of the time, over 25 minutes more than 25% of the time. No cars available 27% of the time.
* Loomis acknowledges Reuters' negative slant but believes these reports are a realistic representation for non-Tesla fans.
**New "Tesla Autonomy" Dashboard (Sponsor: Perplexity Computer):**
* Loomis built a new dashboard, "Tesla Autonomy," to track robotaxi progress, calling it "V1."
* **Features:**
* Interactive map showing active cities (Bay Area in orange for supervised, others for robotaxi service).
* Lists officially announced cities for launch and days remaining to meet Tesla's timelines.
* "Hiring watch list" button shows active job listings for vehicle operators in new cities, populating gray circles on the map.
* Compares Tesla data points to Waymo.
* Lists active cities with launch dates and days in operation.
* NHTSA incident data: Visually appealing breakdown of 15 incidents (e.g., 5 were when Tesla was stopped), pre-crash movement, injury severity, geography.
* Updates automatically, pulls from Google Sheets, YouTube API, and real-time Tesla/NASDAQ prices.
* "Brief me" button offers a changelog for the past 5 days and recent 48 hours of Tesla news via a Perplexity Computer session.
* **Built with Perplexity Computer:** Loomis highlights the AI's ability to build the dashboard with minimal coding knowledge, managing complex tasks, and self-correcting.
**Cybercab Technical Re-evaluation & New Timeline:**
* **Previous Cybertruck FSD Challenges (and why they don't apply to Cybercab):**
* Rear-wheel steer (four-wheel steering): Cybercab will NOT have this.
* Variable ratio steering: Cybercab (without wheel/pedals) will NOT have this; output controls are AI/software.
* Camera positioning: Cybercab will be much closer to Model 3.
* Overall vehicle dynamics: Less complex than Cybertruck.
* Conclusion: FSD on Cybercab will be "far more straightforward" and "relatively easy" compared to Cybertruck.
* **Cortex 2:** Now online and running training workloads (130,000+ H100 equivalents), providing materially more compute than during Cybertruck FSD development.
* **Unboxed Manufacturing & Etherloop:**
* The Etherloop (high-speed Ethernet ring) is a breakthrough enabling unboxed manufacturing.
* Reduces wiring by ~70% (e.g., 490 wires in Model 3 down to ~155 in Cybertruck), making manufacturing cheaper, lighter, and simpler.
* Closed-loop system with redundancy, runs on 48 volts for power and data.
* Integrates audio, UI controls, active road noise cancellation.
* Gigabit Ethernet is ~200x faster than CAN bus, with millisecond latency, crucial for FSD commands and camera feeds.
* **Vertical Integration (Controllers):**
* Tesla is designing more of its controllers in-house: Model S (20%), Cybertruck (85%), Next-gen/Cybercab (100%).
* This contrasts with other automakers (e.g., Ford uses 150 suppliers) and allows Tesla to use fewer, more general-purpose, software-defined controllers.
* This vertical integration contributes to the Cybercab's sub-$30,000 cost.
* **New Cybercab Deployment Expectation:** Loomis now believes Cybercab could be ready for deployment sometime in **July**. He notes it could be "imminent even sooner," but sees no reason for Tesla to rush.
**Other Tesla & Industry News:**
* **Cybercab Production:** Joe Tettmeier reported over 70 Cybercabs at Giga Texas, with a daily production rate of 5-15 units. Hundreds are likely being shipped for testing.
* **Pony AI Unit Economics:** Pony AI's break-even point for robotaxis is an average of **23 orders/rides per vehicle per day**. This is a key metric to watch for Tesla.
* **Giga Shanghai Production:** Produced more cars than ever during the first four months of the year, despite the Model Y/3 changeovers.
* **Giga Berlin Cell Factory:** $250 million investment announced for 18 GWh annual 4680 cell production (enough for ~240,000 vehicles/year), creating 1500+ jobs. Indicates confidence in 4680 production.
* **Tesla Patent:** Patented a new trim clip system using a soft, vibration-isolating layer to reduce rattles and vibrations in the car.
* **Drew Baglino's New Startup:** Drew Baglino (former Tesla SVP Powertrain and Energy Engineering) has started "Sadie Thermal Machines," a heat pump focused company, potentially for home HVAC and water heating.
* **Waymo Expansion:** Expanding to Miami, with Austin, Atlanta, Houston, and the Bay Area next, aiming to cover 1400+ square miles across 11 cities.
* **Tesla Semi Demo:** Covenant Logistics is starting a three-week demo of the 500-mile variant Tesla Semi, running a 200-mile round trip.
* **Tesla Stock:** Closed at $445.27, up 2.73%, with volume 4% above average.