I Was Wrong About Tesla's Cybercab (Important Update) ⚡️

以下是内容的中文翻译： 《Electrified》节目的主持人迪伦·卢米斯（Dylan Loomis）正式调整了他之前对Cybercab（赛博出租车）进入市场时间的预测。经过进一步研究，他现在认为自己最初的9月15日预测是错误的，主要原因是重新评估了技术挑战。 **当前自动驾驶出租车网络现状与挑战：** * **德克萨斯州达拉斯市：** * 一辆自动驾驶出租车堵塞道路近一分钟，斯宾塞称这是他最近见过“最糟糕的自动驾驶出租车操作”。 * 路透社报道称，等待时间长、车辆不可用、下车点距离目的地远。 * 一名记者尝试预订30分钟，却收到“需求量大”或“服务不可用”的提示；最终在尝试36分钟后，等了19分钟才坐上车。 * 导航问题：一辆车被“禁止驶入”标志搞糊涂，错过一个转弯并绕圈，最终需要特斯拉支持人员介入才能完成左转。 * 另一次20分钟的行程耗时近两小时，因为该车不愿前往市政厅——特斯拉尚未在该区域进行测试服务。 * 特斯拉工作人员确认该服务仍处于“测试版”（beta）阶段。 * **德克萨斯州奥斯汀市：** * 客户经常等待超过30分钟，甚至根本无法叫到车。 * 特斯拉在奥斯汀运营约50辆车，而Waymo则超过250辆。 * 等待时间：约50%的情况下超过15分钟，超过25%的情况下超过25分钟。27%的情况下无可用车辆。 * 卢米斯承认路透社的报道带有负面倾向，但他认为这些报道对非特斯拉粉丝来说是真实的写照。 **新的“Tesla Autonomy”仪表盘（赞助商：Perplexity Computer）：** * 卢米斯创建了一个名为“Tesla Autonomy”（特斯拉自动驾驶）的新仪表盘，用于追踪自动驾驶出租车的进展，称之为“V1版本”。 * **功能：** * 互动地图显示活跃城市（湾区以橙色表示有人监督，其他城市表示自动驾驶出租车服务）。 * 列出官方宣布的上线城市以及距离特斯拉时间线剩余的天数。 * “招聘观察列表”按钮显示新城市车辆操作员的活跃招聘信息，并在地图上以灰色圆圈填充。 * 将特斯拉的数据点与Waymo进行比较。 * 列出活跃城市及其上线日期和运营天数。 * NHTSA事故数据：以视觉吸引人的方式细分了15起事故（例如，5起发生在特斯拉停车时），包括碰撞前移动、受伤严重程度、地理位置。 * 自动更新，数据来源于Google Sheets、YouTube API以及特斯拉/纳斯达克实时股价。 * “简报”按钮通过Perplexity Computer会话提供过去5天和最近48小时的特斯拉新闻更新日志。 * **由Perplexity Computer构建：** 卢米斯强调了该人工智能在很少编程知识的情况下构建仪表盘的能力，能够管理复杂任务并自我纠正。 **Cybercab技术重新评估与新时间表：** * **之前Cybertruck全自动驾驶（FSD）的挑战（以及为何不适用于Cybercab）：** * 后轮转向（四轮转向）：Cybercab将不具备此功能。 * 可变转向比：Cybercab（无方向盘/踏板）将不具备此功能；输出控制由人工智能/软件完成。 * 摄像头位置：Cybercab将与Model 3更加接近。 * 整体车辆动力学：比Cybertruck更简单。 * 结论：与Cybertruck相比，Cybercab上的FSD将“更加简单明了”且“相对容易”。 * **Cortex 2：** 现已上线并运行训练工作负载（相当于13万多个H100），提供的计算能力比Cybertruck FSD开发期间的计算能力高得多。 * **“开箱式制造”（Unboxed Manufacturing）与Etherloop：** * Etherloop（高速以太网环）是一项突破，可实现“开箱式制造”。 * 将布线减少约70%（例如，Model 3中的490根线减少到Cybertruck中的约155根），从而使制造更便宜、更轻、更简单。 * 具有冗余的闭环系统，使用48伏电压供电和传输数据。 * 集成了音频、用户界面控制和主动道路降噪功能。 * 千兆以太网比CAN总线快约200倍，具有毫秒级延迟，这对于FSD指令和摄像头馈送至关重要。 * **垂直整合（控制器）：** * 特斯拉正在内部设计更多的控制器：Model S（20%），Cybertruck（85%），下一代车型/Cybercab（100%）。 * 这与其他汽车制造商（例如福特使用150家供应商）形成对比，并使特斯拉能够使用更少、更通用、由软件定义的控制器。 * 这种垂直整合有助于将Cybercab的成本控制在3万美元以下。 * **新的Cybercab部署预期：** 卢米斯现在认为Cybercab可能在**7月**的某个时候准备好部署。他指出它“甚至可能更早到来”，但他认为特斯拉没有理由急于求成。 **其他特斯拉及行业新闻：** * **Cybercab产量：** 乔·特特迈尔（Joe Tettmeier）报告称，德州超级工厂有超过70辆Cybercab，日产量为5-15辆。数百辆可能正在运往各地进行测试。 * **小马智行（Pony AI）单位经济效益：** 小马智行自动驾驶出租车的盈亏平衡点是每辆车每天平均完成**23单/次乘坐**。这是特斯拉需要关注的一个关键指标。 * **上海超级工厂产量：** 尽管Model Y/3车型进行了改款，上海超级工厂今年前四个月的产量仍创历史新高。 * **柏林超级工厂电池厂：** 宣布投资2.5亿美元，用于每年生产18吉瓦时（GWh）的4680电池（足以为约24万辆汽车供电），创造1500多个就业岗位。这表明了对4680电池生产的信心。 * **特斯拉专利：** 特斯拉申请了一项新的内饰卡扣系统专利，该系统使用柔软的减振层来减少车内异响和振动。 * **德鲁·巴格利诺（Drew Baglino）的新创业公司：** 德鲁·巴格利诺（前特斯拉动力总成和能源工程高级副总裁）创办了“Sadie Thermal Machines”公司，专注于热泵，可能用于家用暖通空调和热水系统。 * **Waymo扩张：** Waymo正在向迈阿密扩张，接下来将是奥斯汀、亚特兰大、休斯顿和湾区，目标是覆盖11个城市，总面积超过1400平方英里。 * **特斯拉Semi演示：** Covenant Logistics正在开始为期三周的500英里续航版特斯拉Semi的演示，运行200英里的往返行程。 * **特斯拉股价：** 收于445.27美元，上涨2.73%，交易量比平均水平高出4%。

Dylan Loomis, host of Electrified, is officially adjusting his previous prediction for the Cybercab's market entry. After further research, he now believes his initial September 15th prediction was wrong, primarily due to a re-evaluation of the technical challenges. **Current Robotaxi Network Status & Challenges:** * **Dallas, TX:** * A robotaxi got stuck blocking a road for almost a minute, an incident Spencer called "the worst robotaxi move" he'd seen recently. * Reuters reported long wait times, no availability, and drop-off spots far from destinations. * One reporter tried booking for 30 minutes, got "high demand" or "service unavailable," eventually got a ride with a 19-minute wait after 36 minutes of trying. * Navigation issues: A car was confused by a "do not enter" sign, missed a turn, and circled, requiring Tesla support to intervene for a left turn. * Another 20-minute ride took nearly two hours because the car wouldn't go to City Hall, an area Tesla isn't serving yet for testing. * Tesla agents confirm the service is still in "beta." * **Austin, TX:** * Customers often wait over 30 minutes or can't get a ride at all. * Tesla operates about 50 vehicles, compared to Waymo's 250+ in Austin. * Wait times: over 15 minutes about 50% of the time, over 25 minutes more than 25% of the time. No cars available 27% of the time. * Loomis acknowledges Reuters' negative slant but believes these reports are a realistic representation for non-Tesla fans. **New "Tesla Autonomy" Dashboard (Sponsor: Perplexity Computer):** * Loomis built a new dashboard, "Tesla Autonomy," to track robotaxi progress, calling it "V1." * **Features:** * Interactive map showing active cities (Bay Area in orange for supervised, others for robotaxi service). * Lists officially announced cities for launch and days remaining to meet Tesla's timelines. * "Hiring watch list" button shows active job listings for vehicle operators in new cities, populating gray circles on the map. * Compares Tesla data points to Waymo. * Lists active cities with launch dates and days in operation. * NHTSA incident data: Visually appealing breakdown of 15 incidents (e.g., 5 were when Tesla was stopped), pre-crash movement, injury severity, geography. * Updates automatically, pulls from Google Sheets, YouTube API, and real-time Tesla/NASDAQ prices. * "Brief me" button offers a changelog for the past 5 days and recent 48 hours of Tesla news via a Perplexity Computer session. * **Built with Perplexity Computer:** Loomis highlights the AI's ability to build the dashboard with minimal coding knowledge, managing complex tasks, and self-correcting. **Cybercab Technical Re-evaluation & New Timeline:** * **Previous Cybertruck FSD Challenges (and why they don't apply to Cybercab):** * Rear-wheel steer (four-wheel steering): Cybercab will NOT have this. * Variable ratio steering: Cybercab (without wheel/pedals) will NOT have this; output controls are AI/software. * Camera positioning: Cybercab will be much closer to Model 3. * Overall vehicle dynamics: Less complex than Cybertruck. * Conclusion: FSD on Cybercab will be "far more straightforward" and "relatively easy" compared to Cybertruck. * **Cortex 2:** Now online and running training workloads (130,000+ H100 equivalents), providing materially more compute than during Cybertruck FSD development. * **Unboxed Manufacturing & Etherloop:** * The Etherloop (high-speed Ethernet ring) is a breakthrough enabling unboxed manufacturing. * Reduces wiring by ~70% (e.g., 490 wires in Model 3 down to ~155 in Cybertruck), making manufacturing cheaper, lighter, and simpler. * Closed-loop system with redundancy, runs on 48 volts for power and data. * Integrates audio, UI controls, active road noise cancellation. * Gigabit Ethernet is ~200x faster than CAN bus, with millisecond latency, crucial for FSD commands and camera feeds. * **Vertical Integration (Controllers):** * Tesla is designing more of its controllers in-house: Model S (20%), Cybertruck (85%), Next-gen/Cybercab (100%). * This contrasts with other automakers (e.g., Ford uses 150 suppliers) and allows Tesla to use fewer, more general-purpose, software-defined controllers. * This vertical integration contributes to the Cybercab's sub-$30,000 cost. * **New Cybercab Deployment Expectation:** Loomis now believes Cybercab could be ready for deployment sometime in **July**. He notes it could be "imminent even sooner," but sees no reason for Tesla to rush. **Other Tesla & Industry News:** * **Cybercab Production:** Joe Tettmeier reported over 70 Cybercabs at Giga Texas, with a daily production rate of 5-15 units. Hundreds are likely being shipped for testing. * **Pony AI Unit Economics:** Pony AI's break-even point for robotaxis is an average of **23 orders/rides per vehicle per day**. This is a key metric to watch for Tesla. * **Giga Shanghai Production:** Produced more cars than ever during the first four months of the year, despite the Model Y/3 changeovers. * **Giga Berlin Cell Factory:** $250 million investment announced for 18 GWh annual 4680 cell production (enough for ~240,000 vehicles/year), creating 1500+ jobs. Indicates confidence in 4680 production. * **Tesla Patent:** Patented a new trim clip system using a soft, vibration-isolating layer to reduce rattles and vibrations in the car. * **Drew Baglino's New Startup:** Drew Baglino (former Tesla SVP Powertrain and Energy Engineering) has started "Sadie Thermal Machines," a heat pump focused company, potentially for home HVAC and water heating. * **Waymo Expansion:** Expanding to Miami, with Austin, Atlanta, Houston, and the Bay Area next, aiming to cover 1400+ square miles across 11 cities. * **Tesla Semi Demo:** Covenant Logistics is starting a three-week demo of the 500-mile variant Tesla Semi, running a 200-mile round trip. * **Tesla Stock:** Closed at $445.27, up 2.73%, with volume 4% above average.