This "Markets Weekly" video analyzes recent market events, focusing on President's trade negotiations in Asia, the World Gold Council's report on gold price drivers, and the Federal Reserve's research on the impact of tariffs on U.S. manufacturing.
The video begins by discussing President's trade negotiations in Asia. The host argues that President's administration has more leverage than initially anticipated with countries like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the EU. These countries rely on the US for defense and access to US markets, allowing the US to extract significant concessions, primarily in the form of investment pledges. Japan has committed to a $550 billion investment in the U.S., with $330 billion designated for US power infrastructure, including nuclear reactors, power substations, and turbines, in cooperation with U.S. companies. The host believes this initiative aims to enhance US expertise and address the growing electricity demands of AI. South Korea, similarly, pledged $350 billion in investments in the US, primarily in technology, albeit on a slower disbursement schedule.
The host notes that the reception and outcomes were different with China. He describes China as being stronger in trade negotiations due to their control over rare earths and a higher pain tolerance. He observes a pattern where the White House adopts a strong stance but then seeks to de-escalate tensions, indicating a possible weakness in the US negotiating position. Ultimately, the President lowered tariffs on China by 10%, reducing fentanyl tariffs, in exchange for a commitment to purchase more soybeans and investigate fentanyl precursor production. A one-year pause in the rare earth regime was also agreed upon. The host believes China walked away with a better deal.
The discussion then shifts to the World Gold Council's latest report, which analyzes the supply and demand dynamics influencing gold prices. The host highlights that increased investment demand is the primary driver of gold's surge. He breaks down gold demand into categories like jury, investments, and central bank buying. Jewelry demand has declined as gold prices have risen, being crowded out by other forms of demand. Investment demand, particularly through ETFs, has surged, while physical gold demand (coins and bullion) has also remained robust. Central bank buying is present, but its impact on gold holdings is overstated due to price appreciation. Surprisingly, the Polish central bank is identified as having the largest gold demand this year. On the supply side, mine supply has been relatively elevated, but the report focuses on recycled gold or scrap gold. Despite elevated gold prices, the supply of recycled gold hasn't increased significantly, suggesting that retail investors might anticipate further price increases.
The final segment delves into the Federal Reserve's research on the impact of President's tariffs on U.S. manufacturing. The President aims to revitalize US manufacturing for national security and job creation. The host notes the President is using a combination of tariffs, subsidies, and a weakening dollar. The research suggests that the tariffs have not noticeably increased factory utilization in protected industries.
The Federal Reserve researchers found that manufacturing capacity in the US is relatively low. In other words, there's a lot of excess capacity. The researchers found no relationship between industrial capacity and how protected the industry is. The tariffs haven't caused existing factories to get busier, even in heavily protected sectors. The researchers noted that a lack of demand and trouble finding qualified people is why factories aren't utilizing their full potential. So, tariffs are probably helping the US, but that help is outweighed by broader economic weakness. The shift will take time, and only recently has the tariff regime been stable. According to common sense, when imports become more expensive, domestic goods become more attractive, and that doesn't seem like it would hurt domestic manufacturing.