Markets Weekly November 1, 2025

好的，以下是您提供的内容的中文翻译： 这期“市场周报”视频分析了近期市场事件，重点关注总统在亚洲的贸易谈判、世界黄金协会关于黄金价格驱动因素的报告，以及美联储关于关税对美国制造业影响的研究。 视频首先讨论总统在亚洲的贸易谈判。主持人认为，总统的政府比最初预期的拥有更大的影响力，特别是对日本、韩国、台湾和欧盟等国家。这些国家在国防和进入美国市场方面依赖美国，这使得美国能够获得显著的让步，主要以投资承诺的形式体现。日本已承诺在美国投资 5500 亿美元，其中 3300 亿美元指定用于美国的电力基础设施，包括核反应堆、电力变电站和涡轮机，并与美国公司合作。主持人认为，这项举措旨在提升美国的专业知识，并满足人工智能日益增长的电力需求。同样，韩国也承诺在美国投资 3500 亿美元，主要集中在技术领域，但资金的拨付速度较慢。 主持人指出，与中国的谈判结果和接受程度有所不同。他认为，由于中国对稀土的控制以及更高的痛苦承受能力，在贸易谈判中更具优势。他观察到一种模式，即白宫采取强硬立场，但随后寻求缓和紧张局势，这表明美国在谈判中可能存在弱点。最终，总统将对中国的关税降低了 10%，减少了芬太尼关税，以换取中国承诺购买更多大豆并调查芬太尼前体生产。双方还同意暂停一年的稀土管制。主持人认为，中国获得了更好的交易。 随后，讨论转向世界黄金协会的最新报告，该报告分析了影响黄金价格的供需动态。主持人强调，投资需求的增加是黄金价格上涨的主要驱动因素。他将黄金需求分为珠宝、投资和央行购买等类别。由于金价上涨，珠宝需求已经下降，并被其他形式的需求挤出。投资需求，特别是通过 ETF 的投资需求激增，而实物黄金需求（金币和金条）也保持强劲。央行的购买行为确实存在，但由于价格上涨，其对黄金持有量的影响被夸大了。令人惊讶的是，波兰央行被认为是今年黄金需求量最大的央行。在供应方面，矿产供应相对较高，但报告的重点是回收黄金或废金。尽管金价高企，但回收黄金的供应量并未显著增加，这表明散户投资者可能预计金价会进一步上涨。 最后一部分深入探讨了美联储关于总统关税对美国制造业影响的研究。总统的目标是重振美国制造业，以实现国家安全和创造就业机会。主持人指出，总统正在使用关税、补贴和美元贬值的组合拳。研究表明，关税并没有显著提高受保护行业的工厂利用率。 美联储的研究人员发现，美国的制造业产能相对较低。换句话说，存在大量的过剩产能。研究人员发现，工业产能与受保护程度之间没有关系。即使在受到高度保护的行业，关税也没有使现有工厂变得更加繁忙。研究人员指出，缺乏需求和难以找到合格的人才是工厂无法充分发挥其潜力的原因。因此，关税可能对美国有所帮助，但这种帮助被更广泛的经济疲软所抵消。这种转变需要时间，而且关税制度最近才趋于稳定。按照常理，当进口商品变得更加昂贵时，国内商品会变得更具吸引力，这似乎不会损害国内制造业。

This "Markets Weekly" video analyzes recent market events, focusing on President's trade negotiations in Asia, the World Gold Council's report on gold price drivers, and the Federal Reserve's research on the impact of tariffs on U.S. manufacturing. The video begins by discussing President's trade negotiations in Asia. The host argues that President's administration has more leverage than initially anticipated with countries like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the EU. These countries rely on the US for defense and access to US markets, allowing the US to extract significant concessions, primarily in the form of investment pledges. Japan has committed to a $550 billion investment in the U.S., with $330 billion designated for US power infrastructure, including nuclear reactors, power substations, and turbines, in cooperation with U.S. companies. The host believes this initiative aims to enhance US expertise and address the growing electricity demands of AI. South Korea, similarly, pledged $350 billion in investments in the US, primarily in technology, albeit on a slower disbursement schedule. The host notes that the reception and outcomes were different with China. He describes China as being stronger in trade negotiations due to their control over rare earths and a higher pain tolerance. He observes a pattern where the White House adopts a strong stance but then seeks to de-escalate tensions, indicating a possible weakness in the US negotiating position. Ultimately, the President lowered tariffs on China by 10%, reducing fentanyl tariffs, in exchange for a commitment to purchase more soybeans and investigate fentanyl precursor production. A one-year pause in the rare earth regime was also agreed upon. The host believes China walked away with a better deal. The discussion then shifts to the World Gold Council's latest report, which analyzes the supply and demand dynamics influencing gold prices. The host highlights that increased investment demand is the primary driver of gold's surge. He breaks down gold demand into categories like jury, investments, and central bank buying. Jewelry demand has declined as gold prices have risen, being crowded out by other forms of demand. Investment demand, particularly through ETFs, has surged, while physical gold demand (coins and bullion) has also remained robust. Central bank buying is present, but its impact on gold holdings is overstated due to price appreciation. Surprisingly, the Polish central bank is identified as having the largest gold demand this year. On the supply side, mine supply has been relatively elevated, but the report focuses on recycled gold or scrap gold. Despite elevated gold prices, the supply of recycled gold hasn't increased significantly, suggesting that retail investors might anticipate further price increases. The final segment delves into the Federal Reserve's research on the impact of President's tariffs on U.S. manufacturing. The President aims to revitalize US manufacturing for national security and job creation. The host notes the President is using a combination of tariffs, subsidies, and a weakening dollar. The research suggests that the tariffs have not noticeably increased factory utilization in protected industries. The Federal Reserve researchers found that manufacturing capacity in the US is relatively low. In other words, there's a lot of excess capacity. The researchers found no relationship between industrial capacity and how protected the industry is. The tariffs haven't caused existing factories to get busier, even in heavily protected sectors. The researchers noted that a lack of demand and trouble finding qualified people is why factories aren't utilizing their full potential. So, tariffs are probably helping the US, but that help is outweighed by broader economic weakness. The shift will take time, and only recently has the tariff regime been stable. According to common sense, when imports become more expensive, domestic goods become more attractive, and that doesn't seem like it would hurt domestic manufacturing.