Norges Bank Investment Management - Sir Chris Hohn | Podcast | In Good Company | Norges Bank Investment Management
发布时间:2025-05-14 05:00:19
原节目
以下是内容的中文翻译:
欧洲最成功的基金之一TCI的创始人,以及一家大型慈善基金的创办者Chris Hohn,与Nikola Tangan探讨了投资哲学和慈善事业。
Hohn强调了良好投资中“高进入壁垒”或“护城河”的重要性。这些护城河使得竞争对手难以进入市场并侵蚀利润。Hohn将其与仅仅关注增长或新颖性区分开来。虽然不良资产或廉价、低质量的资产如果以大幅折扣交易可能是好的投资,但他更喜欢具有可持续竞争优势的企业。
这些护城河可以采取多种形式:不可替代的实物资产(如机场、收费公路、电信铁塔)、知识产权(飞机引擎)、已安装基础、规模、网络效应(Visa、Meta)、强大的品牌(麦当劳)以及高客户转换成本(关键任务软件)。至关重要的是,Hohn重视具有多层防御的可持续护城河。他强调竞争会摧毁利润,而替代品可能会消灭一家企业。
虽然经常性收入流很重要,但Hohn优先考虑必需产品和服务而非可自由支配的产品和服务。他以评级机构为例,他们的服务最终是必不可少的。他强调了由销量驱动的增长与由价格驱动的增长之间的区别,突出了定价权——即高于通货膨胀的价格上涨能力——的巨大价值。即使销量适度增长,具有定价能力的公司也能获得显著的利润增长。
Hohn讨论了监管的双刃剑。虽然低进入壁垒会引来竞争和替代,但极高的壁垒可能会引起监管审查。理想的情况是存在微弱且理性的竞争。
他避开了他认为本质上风险高或无利可图的某些行业,包括银行(由于杠杆、不透明性和潜在的管理不善)、汽车制造业、零售业、保险业、商品制造业、烟草业、传统资产管理公司、化石燃料公用事业公司、航空公司、无线电信公司和媒体(由于竞争和颠覆)。
他以微软为例,分析了一家因捆绑销售和客户转换成本而拥有强大护城河的科技公司。在投资Alphabet的同时,他也承认搜索领域竞争日益激烈。他认为人工智能总体上将提高生产力,但将极大地颠覆某些行业,如呼叫中心和印度外包。
Hohn解释说,他的团队首先评估一家公司护城河的强度和可持续性,然后再考虑估值指标。他们专注于使用现金流量折现 (DCF) 分析进行长期估值。投资期限越长,具有持久竞争优势和复合盈利能力的公司价值就越大。他认为,最好的企业会随着时间的推移而表现出色,而且短期市场往往围绕长期趋势波动。
Hohn认为,公共市场中最好的企业通常优于私募股权领域的企业,因为私募股权公司通常局限于规模较小、不占主导地位的公司。他认为,当对内在价值的看法不如其他情况,以及当信心开始减弱时,就会发生出售。
关于他的投资方法,Hohn强调谦逊、愿意承认错误、专注于公司基本面而非市场投机、长期主义(平均持有期为八年)、集中投资于少数高信念投资以及使用直觉。他将直觉定义为“不思考的思考”,一种超越纯粹智力的模式识别形式。
Hohn谈到了他从激进的积极分子到参与型所有者的转变,发现需要与企业进行建设性的讨论。他强调良好的治理很重要。
Hohn描述了他做空 Wirecard 的经历,强调了做空的危险。做空很难,因为风险和回报不对称。而且因为你可能是正确的,但最终必须平仓。
TCI 的企业文化是小型的、合作的,并且基于无形的信任。 Hohn 将文化契合度和长期团队动态置于原始才能之上。
TCI 的很大一部分利润被用于慈善事业,重点关注气候变化以及非洲和印度的儿童健康。 Hohn 将慈善事业视为源于服务人类愿望的“灵魂冲动”。
Hohn谈到了对 ESG 的强烈反对,特别是“E”(环境),他感叹那种优先考虑短期利润而不是地球和子孙后代福祉的心态。他强调,为了有效地应对全球挑战,必须转变意识。
最后,他建议走精神道路的年轻人拥抱精神世界的现实,并将自己与灵魂连接起来,将其视为真正目标、意义和喜悦的源泉。
Chris Hohn, founder of TCI, one of Europe's most successful funds and a major charitable foundation, joins Nikola Tangan to discuss investment philosophy and philanthropy.
Hohn emphasizes the importance of "high barriers to entry" or "moats" in good investments. These moats make it difficult for competitors to enter the market and erode profits. Hohn distinguishes this from simply focusing on growth or newness. While distressed assets or cheap, low-quality assets can be good investments if trading at significant discounts, he prefers businesses with sustainable competitive advantages.
These moats can take various forms: irreplaceable physical assets (like airports, toll roads, telecom towers), intellectual property (aircraft engines), installed base, scale, network effects (Visa, Meta), strong brands (McDonald's), and high customer switching costs (mission-critical software). Crucially, Hohn values sustainable moats with multiple layers of defense. He underscores that competition destroys profits, and substitution can eliminate a business.
While recurring revenue streams are important, Hohn prioritizes essential products and services over discretionary ones. He uses the example of rating agencies whose services are ultimately essential. He stresses the distinction between growth driven by volume versus price, highlighting the immense value of pricing power – the ability to raise prices above inflation. Companies with pricing power can experience significant profit growth even with moderate volume increases.
Hohn discusses the double-edged sword of regulation. While low barriers to entry invite competition and substitution, extremely high barriers can attract regulatory scrutiny. The ideal situation involves weak and rational competition.
He steers clear of certain industries he deems inherently risky or unprofitable, including banks (due to leverage, opacity, and potential for mismanagement), auto manufacturing, retail, insurance, commodity manufacturing, tobacco, traditional asset managers, fossil fuel utilities, airlines, wireless telecom, and media (due to competition and disruption).
He analyzes Microsoft as an example of a tech company with a strong moat due to bundling and customer switching costs. While investing in Alphabet, he acknowledges the increasing competition in search. He believes that AI will generally increase productivity but will dramatically disrupt certain sectors like call centers and Indian outsourcing.
Hohn explains that his team first evaluates the strength and sustainability of a company's moats before considering valuation metrics. They focus on long-term valuations using discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. The longer the investment horizon, the greater the value of companies with durable competitive advantages and compounding earnings power. He argues the best businesses outperform over time and often the short term market fluctuates around that long term trend.
Hohn posits that the best businesses in the public market are often superior to those in the private equity space because private equity firms are typically limited to smaller, less-dominant companies. He believes sales occur when views of intrinsic value are not as good as other things and when faith begins to wane.
Regarding his approach to investing, Hohn emphasizes humility, a willingness to acknowledge errors, a focus on company fundamentals rather than market speculation, long-termism (with an average holding period of eight years), concentration in a few high-conviction investments, and the use of intuition. He defines intuition as "thinking without thinking," a form of pattern recognition operating beyond pure intellect.
Hohn touches on his journey from aggressive activist to engaged owner, finding the need for constructive discussion with businesses. He emphasizes good governance matters.
Hohn describes his experiences shorting Wirecard, emphasizing the danger of shorting. It is difficult to short because the asymmetric risk and reward. And because you can be correct but have to eventually cover.
The TCI corporate culture is small, collegiate, and based on intangible trust. Hohn prioritizes cultural fit and long-term team dynamics over raw talent.
A significant portion of TCI's profits are channeled to charitable causes, with a focus on climate change and children's health in Africa and India. Hohn sees philanthropy as a "soul urge" rooted in a desire to serve humanity.
Hohn addresses the backlash against ESG, particularly the "E" (environmental), lamenting the mindset that prioritizes short-term profits over the well-being of the planet and future generations. He emphasizes the necessity of a shift in consciousness to address global challenges effectively.
Finally, he advises young people on a spiritual path to embrace the reality of the spiritual world and connect to their souls, seeing it as the source of real purpose, meaning, and joy.