以下是原文的中文翻译： 2025年3月14日播出的“Red Mac Off Script”播客节目中，Jifty Graf、Neil Dada 和 Steve Pally 讨论了市场、经济、政策和生活。最初的话题围绕着避免的政府停摆。Steve 预计参议院将通过众议院法案，承认可能存在“作秀”，但指出民主党的筹码有限。进步派人士向民主党施压，要求抵制特朗普和狗狗币提出的削减方案，但遭到共和党人的抵制。民主党人之所以犹豫不决，不愿让政府停摆，是因为他们担心赋予马斯克和狗狗币不受约束的权力。 谈话转向关税，讨论了一位加拿大听众提出的关于美国在选举前对加拿大采取的策略的问题。Neil 指出，特朗普在关税问题上采取了更为激进的立场，更早且更大规模地实施关税。他认为特朗普的理由是加强美国集团，以增强与中国谈判时的筹码，并利用IEPA加速USMCA（美墨加协定）的谈判。在政治方面，Neil观察到特朗普的关税行动和关于吞并加拿大的言论引发了“团结在国旗下效应”，提高了自由党的支持率。小组成员讨论了前总理特鲁多最近被马克·卡尼取代一事。 Jifty 和 Neil 探讨了特朗普是否实际上支持自由党的绿色政策来限制化石燃料，从而可能使美国生产商受益。谈话转向卡尼的背景，他曾担任英国央行和加拿大央行行长，强调他对全球金融和贸易的深刻理解，这将使谈判更加有效。Jifty 还强调了特朗普贸易行动顺序的重要性。 谈话转向鸡蛋价格的下跌。团队指出，鸡蛋价格的下降是一个积极的发展，可能有助于降低通货膨胀。然后，小组成员深入研究了 CPI（消费者价格指数）和 PPI（生产者价格指数）数据，质疑美联储的观点。Neil 认为美联储近期不太可能采取果断行动。他强调，租金的通货紧缩趋势不受关税的影响，并预计劳动力市场将继续降温。他预计降息幅度将高于当前市场共识。 Neil 展示了旧金山联邦储备银行的一张图表，该图表显示基于新闻分析的经济情绪下降，这与消费者情绪相关。Jifty 指出，自初秋以来，市场广度有所下降，这早于本届政府的执政。Dada 指出，当前的经济气候类似于 2022 年，实际收入放缓，住房条件恶化，政府支出收缩，以及对衰退预期的共识发生转变。 Jifty 介绍了投资者情报调查，显示看跌者的人数在一段时间以来首次超过看涨者，这是一个看涨的反向指标。这表明市场情绪的恶化速度快于预期。他认为信贷市场表现没有证实股市的疲软，这表明抛售主要是由情绪驱动的。 展望下周，Steve 预计临时拨款法案将在周末前得到解决，共和党人将专注于解决债务上限的调解方案。他指出特朗普总统提议取消年收入低于 15 万美元的人的税收。Neil 预计美联储将维持今年两次降息的预测，可能会下调增长预测，并强调通胀的上行风险。 播客节目最后讨论了经济数据发布，包括零售销售和工业生产，以及关税的潜在影响。Jifty 提到了黄金、白银和铜的表现，指出全球增长的潜在积极信号以及材料领域内资金流动的转变，同时寻找期权市场中的压力迹象，以表明投资者的投降。

The "Red Mac Off Script" podcast episode from March 14, 2025, features Jifty Graf, Neil Dada, and Steve Pally discussing markets, economics, policy, and life. The initial topic revolves around the averted government shutdown. Steve expects the Senate to pass the House bill, acknowledging potential "theatrics" but pointing out the Democrats' limited leverage. Progressive pressure on Democrats to push back on proposed cuts by Trump and the Doge met resistance from Republicans. The Democrats' hesitation to shut down the government stemmed from the fear of empowering Musk and the Doge with unchecked power. The conversation shifts to tariffs, addressing a question from a Canadian listener about the US's strategy towards Canada ahead of elections. Neil notes Trump's more aggressive stance on tariffs, applied earlier and on a broader scale. He suggests Trump's rationale involves fortifying the American bloc to enhance negotiating leverage when addressing China, using IEPA to accelerate USMCA negotiations. Regarding the political aspects, Neil observes a "rally around the flag effect" boosting the Liberal Party's support after Trump's tariff actions and rhetoric about annexing Canada. The panel discusses the recent replacement of Trudeau, the former prime minister, with Mark Carney. Jifty and Neil explore whether Trump actually favors the Liberal Party's green policies to restrict fossil fuels, potentially benefiting US producers. The conversation turns to Carney's background as a former governor of the Bank of England and Bank of Canada, highlighting his deep understanding of global finance and trade, which should make negotiations more effective. Jifty also highlights the importance of the sequencing of Trump's trade actions. The conversation moves to the decline in egg prices. The team points out that the decline in egg prices is a positive development that may help to lower inflation. The panel then delves into CPI and PPI data, questioning the Fed's perspective. Neil believes the Fed is unlikely to take decisive action in the near term. He emphasizes that the disinflationary trend in rents is unaffected by tariffs and anticipates a continued cooling of the labor market. He expects more rate cuts than the current market consensus. Neil presents a Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco chart illustrating a decline in economic sentiment based on news analysis, correlating with consumer sentiment. Jifty notes that the market breath has declined since the early fall, which pre-dates the current administration. Dada points out that the current economic climate resembles 2022, with slowing real incomes, worsening housing conditions, contracting government spending, and a shift in consensus away from recession expectations. Jifty introduces the Investors Intelligence survey, showing bears outnumbering bulls for the first time in a while, a bullish contrarian indicator. This indicates sentiment has soured more quickly than anticipated. He believes the fact that credit market performance doesn't corroborate the weakness in equities suggests the selloff is largely sentiment-driven. Looking ahead to the next week, Steve anticipates that the stopgap funding bill will be addressed by the weekend and Republicans will focus on a reconciliation package addressing the debt limit. He notes President Trump's proposal to eliminate taxes for those earning under $150,000. Neil expects the Fed to maintain its forecast of two rate cuts for the year, potentially revising down growth forecasts and highlighting upside risks to inflation. The podcast episode concludes with discussions on economic data releases, including retail sales and industrial production, and potential impacts of tariffs. Jifty mentions the performance of gold, silver, and copper, noting potential positive signs for global growth and a shift in flows within the material space, while looking for signs of stress in the option market to indicate capitulation among investors.