RenMac Off-Script: Eggs-cellent

发布时间 2025-03-14 16:42:49 来源

以下是原文的中文翻译： 2025年3月14日播出的“Red Mac Off Script”播客节目中，Jifty Graf、Neil Dada 和 Steve Pally 讨论了市场、经济、政策和生活。最初的话题围绕着避免的政府停摆。Steve 预计参议院将通过众议院法案，承认可能存在“作秀”，但指出民主党的筹码有限。进步派人士向民主党施压，要求抵制特朗普和狗狗币提出的削减方案，但遭到共和党人的抵制。民主党人之所以犹豫不决，不愿让政府停摆，是因为他们担心赋予马斯克和狗狗币不受约束的权力。谈话转向关税，讨论了一位加拿大听众提出的关于美国在选举前对加拿大采取的策略的问题。Neil 指出，特朗普在关税问题上采取了更为激进的立场，更早且更大规模地实施关税。他认为特朗普的理由是加强美国集团，以增强与中国谈判时的筹码，并利用IEPA加速USMCA（美墨加协定）的谈判。在政治方面，Neil观察到特朗普的关税行动和关于吞并加拿大的言论引发了“团结在国旗下效应”，提高了自由党的支持率。小组成员讨论了前总理特鲁多最近被马克·卡尼取代一事。 Jifty 和 Neil 探讨了特朗普是否实际上支持自由党的绿色政策来限制化石燃料，从而可能使美国生产商受益。谈话转向卡尼的背景，他曾担任英国央行和加拿大央行行长，强调他对全球金融和贸易的深刻理解，这将使谈判更加有效。Jifty 还强调了特朗普贸易行动顺序的重要性。谈话转向鸡蛋价格的下跌。团队指出，鸡蛋价格的下降是一个积极的发展，可能有助于降低通货膨胀。然后，小组成员深入研究了 CPI（消费者价格指数）和 PPI（生产者价格指数）数据，质疑美联储的观点。Neil 认为美联储近期不太可能采取果断行动。他强调，租金的通货紧缩趋势不受关税的影响，并预计劳动力市场将继续降温。他预计降息幅度将高于当前市场共识。 Neil 展示了旧金山联邦储备银行的一张图表，该图表显示基于新闻分析的经济情绪下降，这与消费者情绪相关。Jifty 指出，自初秋以来，市场广度有所下降，这早于本届政府的执政。Dada 指出，当前的经济气候类似于 2022 年，实际收入放缓，住房条件恶化，政府支出收缩，以及对衰退预期的共识发生转变。 Jifty 介绍了投资者情报调查，显示看跌者的人数在一段时间以来首次超过看涨者，这是一个看涨的反向指标。这表明市场情绪的恶化速度快于预期。他认为信贷市场表现没有证实股市的疲软，这表明抛售主要是由情绪驱动的。展望下周，Steve 预计临时拨款法案将在周末前得到解决，共和党人将专注于解决债务上限的调解方案。他指出特朗普总统提议取消年收入低于 15 万美元的人的税收。Neil 预计美联储将维持今年两次降息的预测，可能会下调增长预测，并强调通胀的上行风险。播客节目最后讨论了经济数据发布，包括零售销售和工业生产，以及关税的潜在影响。Jifty 提到了黄金、白银和铜的表现，指出全球增长的潜在积极信号以及材料领域内资金流动的转变，同时寻找期权市场中的压力迹象，以表明投资者的投降。

The "Red Mac Off Script" podcast episode from March 14, 2025, features Jifty Graf, Neil Dada, and Steve Pally discussing markets, economics, policy, and life. The initial topic revolves around the averted government shutdown. Steve expects the Senate to pass the House bill, acknowledging potential "theatrics" but pointing out the Democrats' limited leverage. Progressive pressure on Democrats to push back on proposed cuts by Trump and the Doge met resistance from Republicans. The Democrats' hesitation to shut down the government stemmed from the fear of empowering Musk and the Doge with unchecked power. The conversation shifts to tariffs, addressing a question from a Canadian listener about the US's strategy towards Canada ahead of elections. Neil notes Trump's more aggressive stance on tariffs, applied earlier and on a broader scale. He suggests Trump's rationale involves fortifying the American bloc to enhance negotiating leverage when addressing China, using IEPA to accelerate USMCA negotiations. Regarding the political aspects, Neil observes a "rally around the flag effect" boosting the Liberal Party's support after Trump's tariff actions and rhetoric about annexing Canada. The panel discusses the recent replacement of Trudeau, the former prime minister, with Mark Carney. Jifty and Neil explore whether Trump actually favors the Liberal Party's green policies to restrict fossil fuels, potentially benefiting US producers. The conversation turns to Carney's background as a former governor of the Bank of England and Bank of Canada, highlighting his deep understanding of global finance and trade, which should make negotiations more effective. Jifty also highlights the importance of the sequencing of Trump's trade actions. The conversation moves to the decline in egg prices. The team points out that the decline in egg prices is a positive development that may help to lower inflation. The panel then delves into CPI and PPI data, questioning the Fed's perspective. Neil believes the Fed is unlikely to take decisive action in the near term. He emphasizes that the disinflationary trend in rents is unaffected by tariffs and anticipates a continued cooling of the labor market. He expects more rate cuts than the current market consensus. Neil presents a Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco chart illustrating a decline in economic sentiment based on news analysis, correlating with consumer sentiment. Jifty notes that the market breath has declined since the early fall, which pre-dates the current administration. Dada points out that the current economic climate resembles 2022, with slowing real incomes, worsening housing conditions, contracting government spending, and a shift in consensus away from recession expectations. Jifty introduces the Investors Intelligence survey, showing bears outnumbering bulls for the first time in a while, a bullish contrarian indicator. This indicates sentiment has soured more quickly than anticipated. He believes the fact that credit market performance doesn't corroborate the weakness in equities suggests the selloff is largely sentiment-driven. Looking ahead to the next week, Steve anticipates that the stopgap funding bill will be addressed by the weekend and Republicans will focus on a reconciliation package addressing the debt limit. He notes President Trump's proposal to eliminate taxes for those earning under $150,000. Neil expects the Fed to maintain its forecast of two rate cuts for the year, potentially revising down growth forecasts and highlighting upside risks to inflation. The podcast episode concludes with discussions on economic data releases, including retail sales and industrial production, and potential impacts of tariffs. Jifty mentions the performance of gold, silver, and copper, noting potential positive signs for global growth and a shift in flows within the material space, while looking for signs of stress in the option market to indicate capitulation among investors.

摘要

RenMac discusses the potential strategy behind Schumer’s decision to avoid a government shutdown, the contribution of egg prices to CPI, the deteriorating news flow with the spike in bearish market sentiment, the potential Canadian tariff strategy (or lack thereof), why we’re not playing this as a bear-market and this week’s mailbag regarding market tops.

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中英文字稿

Welcome to Red Mac Off Script. We're going to discuss markets, economics, policy, history, and life. It's the 14th of March, 2025. I'm Jifty Graf. I'm Neil Dada, and I'm Steve Pally. As a reminder, most of the charts that we reference are posted to our Twitter account. You can follow us on YouTube as well.

欢迎来到Red Mac Off Script。我们将讨论市场、经济、政策、历史以及生活。今天是2025年3月14日。我是Jifty Graf。我是Neil Dada，还有我是Steve Pally。提醒一下，我们提到的大多数图表都会发布到我们的推特账户上。您也可以在YouTube上关注我们。

We're going to get right into it and talk about the government shutdown averted. Probably averted. Neil, I'm sorry, Steve, where do we stand on that? Well, just the time, Steve, recording a little after 9 on Friday, the 14th, expecting the Senate to have a vote to pass the House bill. There may be some theatrics involved to get there. I think when you think of the respect of Democrats, they just don't have a lot of leverage given their minority and vote the House and the Senate.

我们将直接讨论政府停摆问题，看来这是个问题已经被避免了。可能避免了。尼尔，哦不，抱歉，是史蒂夫，我们现在情况如何？史蒂夫，现在是星期五14号，时间刚过九点，我们预计参议院将投票通过众议院的议案。可能会有一些戏剧性的成分在里面。我认为对于民主党来说，由于他们在众议院和参议院都处于少数地位，他们的筹码并不多。

There's been a lot of progressive pressure on Democrats to try to push back on a lot of the cuts proposed by Trump and the Doge. I think that's where you saw a lot of the momentum. Again, a lot of progressive side. The problem was that was just a non-starter for Republican lawmakers. Democrats wanted to test Speaker Johnson to see whether or not he could keep Republicans unified, something that he's struggling to do in the past.

在特朗普和多吉提出的许多削减措施上，民主党面临着大量进步派的压力，要求他们进行反对。我认为这就是为什么你会看到有很多进步派在这方面发力。问题在于，这对共和党议员来说根本行不通。民主党希望考验议长约翰逊，看他是否能够让共和党保持团结，这是他过去一直在努力的事情。

He did that earlier this week, sent that bill over to the Senate, and I think that's where the minority leader rather, Chuck Schumer's options were sort of bad or worse. At the end of the day, I don't think Democrats wanted to shut down the government, because we always say, if you're explaining you're losing, that point you'd have to explain why you did it.

本周早些时候，他就把那项法案送到了参议院。我认为这让少数党领袖查克·舒默的选择变得很糟糕或者更糟糕。最终，我不认为民主党想要关闭政府，因为我们常说，如果你需要解释，那就是在输。在那种情况下，你得解释为什么你这么做。

I think the other big fear there was, if you shut down the government over this, how are we going to reopen that? I think that also weighed on the decision there of Senator Schumer. Ultimately, expecting him to go ahead and provide the votes needed to avoid a government shutdown. I think that's more or less how it played out. I think if there was one thing in hindsight to maybe look back on, Schumer may not have wanted to raise some expectations.

我认为另一个主要的担忧是，如果因为这个问题导致政府关闭，那么我们将如何重新开放呢？我认为这也影响了参议员舒默的决定。最终，他预计会提供必要的票数以避免政府停摆。我认为事情大致就是这样发展的。如果回头来看，舒默可能不应该让大家对某些事情抱有太高期望。

I think that's sort of way we were supported in the press. Democrats were going to go to the match and shut down the government over this. I think that got progressives a little excited, they needed to walk that back. Maybe in hindsight, what was the request? You knew, I think, deep down that Republicans weren't going to go along with putting restrictions on President Trump and the doge here.

我认为这在一定程度上反映了媒体对我们的支持。民主党人打算通过强硬手段迫使政府停摆。我觉得这让一些进步人士有些兴奋，他们需要重新评估这种做法。也许事后来看，请求是什么呢？我相信你内心深处知道，共和党人不会同意对特朗普总统和这里的其他事情施加限制。

Had you maybe selected something else, maybe there would have been potential to secure a win. I think that's where things stand at the moment. How big of a concern was we shut it down that plays right into Doge's hands, I would think. Is that where they came out of this? We're just going to empower something that we already don't want to empower in our resisting?

如果你当初选择了其他选项，也许会有获胜的潜力。我认为这就是当前的情况。同时，我们有多大顾虑会关闭这一选项？我认为这正好中了Doge的下怀。他们最终的结果是这样的吗？我们只是会加强我们本就不想在对抗中支持的东西吗？

Is this their way to fight that by acquiescing on the front end, but being able to fight it on the back end? Well, I think that's sort of what you see the messaging coming out from Schumer now and others, maybe to say face with the progressives that try to point out. We know that you wanted to have this fight deep down. We didn't really want to go there.

他们是不是在用这种方式应对：表面上妥协，实际上在背后反击？我觉得这大概就是舒默（Schumer）等人现在传达的信息，可能是为了在进步派面前保全面子。我们知道你们心里是想要这场斗争的，而我们其实不太愿意这样去做。

To think about the benefits of avoiding government shutdown, because had we done that, to your point, Joe, Musk and the doge could have gone in there with no checks and presumably run rush on for a very long time. So when you're looking at what Schumer's saying right now, I think he's speaking as much to progressives as he is to anyone else just to say, here's the benefit of avoiding government shutdown.

考虑一下避免政府关门的好处，因为正如乔提到的，如果我们不这样做，马斯克和狗狗币可能会长时间不受限制地运作。因此，当你看到舒默现在所说的内容时，我认为他不仅是在对进步派说，也是对所有人说，旨在表明避免政府关门的好处。

So let's hit on tariffs. And I want to pull this in because we had a question on this from an anonymous Canadian. We seem to be attracting Canadians to the pod, which is great. As a Michigander, I feel like I'm part of the province of Canada at least halfway.

让我们来谈谈关税吧。我想提到这一点，因为我们收到了一个匿名加拿大人的相关问题。我们的播客似乎吸引了不少加拿大人，这很好。作为密歇根人，我觉得自己至少一半算是加拿大的成员。

But Canadians are wondering what 3D chess the US may be playing with Canada ahead of the presumed upcoming elections. Does Trump or even senior US administration officials have a nuanced view of the PCs versus liberals in Canada and how important this race is? And then how does hardball tariffs or how do hardball tariffs and the sequencing of these negotiations with a lame duck government factor into the thinking or ignorance of the administration?

但加拿大人想知道，美国在假定即将到来的选举之前，会在对加拿大的策略上打什么"三维棋"。特朗普甚至美国政府高级官员对加拿大的保守党与自由党之间的对决有着细微的看法吗？他们认为这场竞选有多重要？此外，美国对强硬关税的使用，以及与即将卸任的政府进行谈判的先后顺序，又如何影响政府的思考或者无视加拿大的利益？

What's yours? Just broadly, what's your sense of what's going on from a tariff perspective? I think everybody's kind of come to the agreement that this is a negotiating tool. But obviously the amplification and the news flow around this seems pretty uncomfortable, I guess, is the right word. Where do you come down?

你的看法是什么？总体来说，你对关税方面的发展有什么感觉？我认为大家基本上都同意这是一种谈判工具。但显然，这方面的新闻和舆论似乎让人感到不太舒服，我想“不太舒服”这个词形容得很贴切。你怎么看？

Particularly as it applies to Canada, which is probably the most important trading partner within this whole mess. So I think what's maybe caught markets and other people by surprise is Trump being much more aggressive both in the timing earlier in this administration as well as the scale and scope of the tariffs, fewer exemptions this time applying to more products.

这段话的大意是：尤其是在涉及到加拿大时，加拿大可能是这个混乱局势中最重要的贸易伙伴。所以我认为令市场和其他人感到意外的是，特朗普政府在任期早期就表现得非常激进，不仅在时间上，而且在关税的规模和范围上都更加激进。这次的关税对更多的产品减少了豁免。

I think also some were sort of hoping that in terms of the, it would be directed that IRAD that it wouldn't be Mexico and Canada early on. I just think about the sequencing from Trump 1. Trump began last time on Mexico and Canada sort of when you think about the real goal here with a more aggressive pivot to China. And I think there was some desire here to do that. And that's why he's using IEPA, which hasn't been used before to impose tariffs, but he wanted to sort of accelerate these conversations and negotiations around USMCA, ahead of the July 1, 2026 date, really to try to, again, fortify the American block to have more negotiating leverage when he pivots to China.

我觉得还有些人希望，美国的独立研究与发展活动（IRAD）一开始不会集中在墨西哥和加拿大。我只是想到特朗普第一次执政时的顺序。上次特朗普从墨西哥和加拿大入手，但真正的目标是更积极地转向中国。我认为有些人也希望这样做。这就是他使用《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEPA）的原因，这个法律之前从未被用来征收关税，但他想加速有关《美墨加协定》（USMCA）的对话和谈判，以便在2026年7月1日之前加强美洲联盟的实力，以便在转向中国时拥有更多的谈判筹码。

People who disagree with that approach, I just think if I'm going to explain what the rationale is for that, I think that that's part of it in terms of why Canada and Mexico at the time. Now in terms of the political aspects, I mean, I think person's right to point out that when Trump has become more aggressive on the tariffs, but also the rhetoric saying he's going to annex Canada, you've seen the support for the Liberal Party, which Justin Bordeaux was the prime minister until today, I believe Mark Carney now becomes the prime minister moving forward. But I think you've seen the support for the Liberal Party, shot up, and you've seen a rally around the flag effect.

对于不同意这种方法的人，我只是觉得如果我要解释其背后的理由，我认为其一部分原因涉及当时的加拿大和墨西哥。至于政治方面，我认为有人指出一个事实是对的，那就是随着特朗普在关税问题上变得更加激进，并且在言辞上声称要吞并加拿大，你会发现对自由党的支持率大幅上升。自由党在当时由贾斯汀·特鲁多担任总理，但我相信从今天起马克·卡尼将成为新的总理。而这种局势也引发了所谓的“围绕旗帜效应”，民众对政府的支持团结了起来。

And so you're sort of wondering, you know, wait a minute, is this going against Trump's political interests when he'd rather have the conservative party to work with in the race moving forward? If there were some 3D chess element to this, I've heard it theorize that maybe Trump actually wants Mark Carney and Liberal Party in power to actually continue sort of this green push from Canada, maybe start restricting some of the fossil fuels there that that might make US fossil fuel producers a better position moving forward. I don't know if there's merit to that.

你可能会疑惑，等等，这是不是违背了特朗普的政治利益，他是否更希望在未来的竞选中与保守党合作？如果这里有某种高深的策略，我听说有一种理论认为，或许特朗普实际上希望马克·卡尼和自由党掌权，以便加拿大继续推进绿色能源政策，可能开始限制一些化石燃料的使用，这可能会使美国的化石燃料生产商在未来处于更有利的位置。我不确定这种说法是否有道理。

It's just something that's been going around. I also wouldn't put it past Trump, you know, with his disdain for Justin Trudeau. Let's just be honest, he does not like him. And just wanted to do every opportunity could just sort of dunk on him. And if there's some strategic aspect to that, it's Trudeau going to be asked by Carney others to sort of clean up the mess with respect to tariffs, make some concessions that would be more difficult for Carney or somebody else make moving forward because presumably Trump's team is still negotiating with Trudeau's team.

这只是一直在流传的一些事情。我也不会排除特朗普会这样做的可能性，你知道的，他对贾斯汀·特鲁多的不满是众所周知的。坦率地说，他不喜欢特鲁多，就想抓住每一个机会打压他。如果这背后有某种战略目的，那可能就是特鲁多会被卡尼或其他人要求来解决与关税相关的问题，做出一些让卡尼或者其他人在未来更难以接受的让步，因为特朗普的团队可能仍在与特鲁多的团队谈判。

So, you know, that's my best attempt to try to explain. It hasn't taken over. They just had a, I mean, the Liberals basically not, I mean, Trudeau's basically done. He's gone. He's gone. I think his cabinet's still in place though, if I'm not mistaken. So I think that's who, but you raised the question, are the people you're negotiating with now in a position to, you know, go ahead? I feel like I feel like Mark, let's all remember for those that don't know, Mark Carney is the former governor of the Bank of England and the former governor of the Bank of Canada.

所以，你知道，这就是我尽力解释的方式。事情还没有发生根本性的改变。自由党只是，他们的意思是说，特鲁多基本上完了。他走了，已经走了。不过，如果我没弄错的话，他的内阁可能还在。所以我认为你提出的问题是，你现在要谈判的人是否有能力继续推进？我觉得，大家要记住的是，马克·卡尼是前英格兰银行行长和前加拿大银行行长。

And that was after a long stint in Goldman Sachs. The guy isn't exactly someone that doesn't understand global international finance and trade. He understands it. So I think it would make sense. And negotiations. Yeah, he maybe he's more receptive to it. So why would anyone assume that he's going to allow Trudeau to keep his team in place now that he's the guy in charge of the government in Canada? I don't know that Carney's announced his part of it.

在高盛（Goldman Sachs）工作了很长时间之后，这个人显然不是不懂得全球国际金融和贸易的人。他非常了解这些，所以我觉得这很有道理。而且在谈判方面，他可能也会更愿意接受一些新的想法。那么，为什么有人会认为现在他作为加拿大政府的负责人，会允许特鲁多继续保持他现有的团队呢？我不知道卡尼是否已经宣布参与其中。

I think the Liberal parties have to get behind that. And I think that's one of the reasons you may see the snapback election, but that's a fair point. I mean, I think you're talking about ours not date, right? I mean, we're like right on the like, you know, I mean, I just think that's sort of a very weak argument if Trump is making this, I mean, this 3D chess argument that people make whenever they want to rationalize everything that Trump does, the conservative party of Canada, as I understand it, up until President Trump began sort of talking about we want to have them as the 51st state, the conservative party of Canada was en route to a landslide win.

我认为自由党必须支持这一点。我觉得这可能是你看到快速反弹选举的原因之一，但这也是个合理的观点。我想你在谈论我们的情况，而不是具体日期，对吧？我们的情况就像是……我认为，如果特朗普使用这个说法，这是个很弱的论点。我指的是那种3D棋局理论，人们总是用它来为特朗普的一切行为辩护。据我所知，加拿大保守党原本有望取得压倒性胜利，直到特朗普总统开始谈论要把他们变成美国的第51个州。

I mean, we're talking like a complete wipeout for the Liberal Canada. Okay, he would have probably found a much better negotiating partner. Now, you even have the Liberals basically talking about we're going to build pipelines every which way, you know, we're going to give our energy to Europe, to the to Asia, to wherever. Like now even even the even the green nuts in in Canada are kind of on board with that. So I just feel like I mean, to me, those are called pistachios, by the way.

我的意思是，我们说的是加拿大的自由党可能完全崩溃。他本来会找到一个更好的谈判伙伴。现在，甚至自由党都在谈论要四面八方修建管道，把我们的能源送到欧洲、亚洲，或者其他地方。现在就连加拿大那些极端环保主义者似乎也开始支持这个想法。所以我觉得，对我来说，那些人可以叫开心果。

Right. Right. But what I would just say is that it's made it impossible, if I think for any Canadian politician to give an inch to Trump because of this 51st state business, like no Canadian politician, I mean, they will rather deal with a five year depression before they give Trump. I think I mean, I really do believe that. And I was in Toronto in January or early February, not, you know, as this started to get heat ratcheted up. Okay. And the sort of sense of national pride that you see in Canada is enormous. Okay. So you I mean, they basically I mean, I think it was it was an unforced error. And of course, like, like no one wants to say this out loud. I mean, politically, like the 51st state thing, that's never going to happen. But from the perspective of a supply chain, they kind of already are the 51st state. Right. And you know, I so I don't really know what what's going on.

好的。不过我想说的是，这让任何加拿大政客在面对特朗普时都很难退让，尤其是因为这个"第51个州"的事情。没有哪个加拿大政客会愿意在特朗普面前妥协，他们宁愿承受五年的经济衰退。我真的相信这一点。今年1月或2月初，我在多伦多，当时这件事情开始升温。你能看到加拿大的民族自豪感是非常强烈的。我认为这是一个自身失误。当然，没有人会愿意公开谈论这件事。从政治角度来说，“第51个州”是不可能发生的。但从供应链的角度看，加拿大某种程度上已经像是美国的第51个州。我不太清楚具体情况如何。

I mean, we they send us stuff. We actually like the value ad happens on our side of the border. And then we send it back. Okay. So it's a win win. And you know, I mean, it's kind of interesting when we hear President Trump saying like, we don't need their oil. Well, I mean, talk to refiners in the mess Midwest, you kind of do want their oil. So is this an opportunity though, where he, you know, obviously, as Steve says, disdain for Trudeau, right? So now new leadership, regardless of what side of the aisle, right? Does this allow him, even if it was an unforced error on his part of, you know, just the bluster, does this allow him now the opportunity to kind of ease back on that? He got rid of, you know, essentially, the guy that he couldn't stand.

我的意思是，他们给我们送东西。实际上，附加值是在我们这边实现的，然后我们再把它送回去。所以这是双赢的局面。而且，当我们听到特朗普总统说我们不需要他们的石油时，这其实挺有趣的。但是，和中西部的炼油厂聊一聊，你会发现其实你还是需要他们的石油。那么，现在是不是一个机会呢？就像Steve说的，他显然对特鲁多不满，对吧？现在有了新的领导，不管是哪一党的领导，这是不是让他有机会缓和这种态度呢？特鲁多这个他无法忍受的人已经被去掉了。

And he's with somebody else that maybe he can soften his tone. And that actually makes it a better outcome. I don't know if he's doing that with the tariffs, but my point being he gives him an opportunity. He's still been talking about 51st state, even after Carney won this thing. So, you know, look, I mean, I mean, frankly, I think he probably has more of a shrewd negotiator in Carney than he did with Trudeau, because Carney understands these issues on a probably on a much deeper level than the than his predecessors. And on top of this, I mean, the other thing, of course, is that, you know what, like it's interesting, this sort of trade war is going on. Guess what the Bank of Canada is doing? They're cutting rates to support the Canadian economy.

他和另一个人在一起，这个人可能会让他的语气缓和些。这实际上会带来更好的结果。我不确定他在关税问题上是否这样做，但我想说的是，这给了他一个机会。即使在卡尼赢得这件事之后，他仍然在谈论"第51个州"。坦白说，我认为卡尼比特鲁多更像一个精明的谈判者，因为卡尼对这些问题的理解可能更深入。此外，有趣的是，在这个贸易战进行中，加拿大央行正在降息以支持加拿大经济。

Is Powell going to do that? Wasn't that always one of Trump's critics or critiques of Powell last time? Was that, you know, all these other central bankers were supporting their country by doing these in a much weaker place than the US, right? Like, so there's actually more reason for the Canadians to do it. But I guess if Trump wants to go there, he can. But, you know, let's, let's be clear. I mean, I've, you know, I mean, tariffs are the price of admission, you know, believing in them. That's the price of admission if you're going to, you know, sort of be with Trump, right? But, you know, with the Canada ones, I mean, it's really, it's hard to know even with this with respect to Derry.

鲍威尔会这样做吗？上次特朗普对鲍威尔的批评之一不就是这个吗？就是说，其他国家的央行行长通过各种方式来支持他们的国家，而美国则没有那么困难，对吧？所以，加拿大更有理由这么做。但是，我想，如果特朗普想采取这种做法，他可以试试。不过，我们需要明确一点，我觉得关税是必须付出的代价，如果你要支持特朗普的话。但是，对于加拿大的情况，尤其是乳制品方面的问题，真的是很难掌握。

I mean, a lot of these things were, you know, Trump talks about Derry, but a lot of these sort of provisions were negotiated under USMCA and the tariffs don't kick in until a certain threshold of dairy product exports to Canada are met. And we don't actually meet them. So it's not like the tariffs are actually on. So anyway, I mean, we're kind of going off here. Let's talk about eggs. So egg prices came down. That's what I know that, you know, was it Hayek, who was the famous, watched the price of eggs after World War II? Do you know that story? Yeah, I thought it was Hayek. I don't think it was Milton Friedman. It was a famous classical economist, but when they were putting in free markets in Germany, and you had the inflation and it was post war, the famous retort was watch the price of eggs, obviously commodity and the free market, you know, kind of figuring it out with high production rates, etc.

我的意思是，特朗普常提到乳制品的问题，但是很多这些条款是通过《美墨加协议》（USMCA）谈判达成的。只有当美国对加拿大的乳制品出口达到一定门槛时，关税才会生效。而实际上，我们并没有达到这个门槛，所以关税实际上并没有真正实施。无论如何，我们有点跑题了。让我们来谈谈鸡蛋吧。鸡蛋价格下降了。我知道，有位著名经济学家——我记得是哈耶克，不是米尔顿·弗里德曼——他说过，在二战后要观察鸡蛋的价格。据说在德国开始实施自由市场政策时，出现了战后通货膨胀，那时著名的观点是要看鸡蛋的价格。因为鸡蛋是一种大宗商品，自由市场会通过高生产率等方式自行调整价格。

So price of eggs are down. They are down. They're down sharply. I mean, it looks like about 30% in March. So don't expect that to be in the news anymore. You know, I wouldn't, but but Trump had this very interesting plan for dealing with the egg problem, which is just wait for the chickens to lay them. And now they are and prices are going down. And and you know, I think we should expect the usual suspects to not talk about it anymore. You know, 30% drop in egg prices is probably good for almost a 10th off of headline CPI inflation. So it's not true. Yeah, it's that big. Wow. Well, I think it's a rounds up to a 10th. I mean, it's maybe like 0.07 point zero eight something like that. But it'll take about a 10th off of monthly CPI inflation next month. So it's welcome news.

鸡蛋价格下降了。确实下降了，而且降幅很大。我指三月份大概下降了30%。所以别指望这会继续成为新闻热点。我觉得不会的，但特朗普有个很有趣的解决鸡蛋问题的计划，就是等着母鸡下蛋。现在它们下蛋了，价格也在下降。我觉得我们应该会看到那些平时喜欢报道这类问题的人不再讨论这个了。鸡蛋价格下降30%可能会使整体消费者价格指数（CPI）通胀降低大约十分之一。虽然不完全是这样，但影响确实很大。哇，虽然实际上可能是降低了0.07或0.08左右，但这意味着下个月的月度CPI通胀会减少大约十分之一。所以这是个好消息。

And remember that food at home prices in the last inflation report were flat despite a very large increase in egg prices. So, you know, the fact that egg prices are now declining, I think it is probably welcome news for food prices. And you're seeing it across the other, I mean, I think you can probably speak to this other agricultural commodities have been coming off the boil. I mean, corn is one. You know, that's obviously used as feed for cattle. So, you know, diesel prices have come off a little bit. So, you know, there's some good news in the inflation data.

请记住，在最近的通胀报告中，尽管鸡蛋价格大幅上涨，家庭食品价格仍然保持稳定。因此，现在鸡蛋价格下降，我认为这对于食品价格来说是个好消息。而且，您可能也注意到，其他农产品的价格也在回落，比如玉米。玉米显然是用于喂养牲畜的。此外，柴油价格也有所下降。因此，在通胀数据中有一些好的消息。

There's some bad news as well. I mean, I don't want to think anyone to think that it's all sort of rosy. So we had CPI PPI. And what did I know we're focusing on eggs here because it was kind of a fulcrum for the media. But what was the broader CPI PPI data? More supportive, less supportive, and how should the Fed be thinking about it? Well, I don't think the Fed is really thinking about too much one way or the other at the moment because, you know, there are no mood to do anything at the moment.

这也有一些坏消息。我是说，我不想让任何人认为一切都是一片光明。我们有消费者价格指数（CPI）和生产者价格指数（PPI）的数据。我们重点关注鸡蛋，是因为它曾经是媒体报道的一个焦点。但是更广泛的CPI和PPI数据是更支持经济，还是不那么支持？美联储应该如何看待这些数据？嗯，我不认为美联储现在有太多想法，因为此刻他们没有行动的意愿。

So I don't think the data actually is that important right now. You know, at the margin, I mean, I think January was somewhat better than people thought February was a little bit worse than people thought. You know, I think if you take everything together, it's sort of ongoing progress. Now, you know, the tariff issue introduces additional risk to the upside with respect to inflation, particularly for core consumer goods. It remains to be seen how much of that is passed but on the flip side, I mean, the good news is that the disinflation and rents is continuing.

我认为目前数据并不是特别重要。从细微的变化上来看，1月份的情况比人们预期的要好一些，而2月份的情况则比预期稍差。如果综合来看，一切都在持续进步。不过，关税问题会带来额外的通胀风险，特别是对核心消费品的影响。还需要观察有多少影响被转嫁，但另一方面，令人欣慰的是，房租的通货紧缩仍在继续。

And you know, housing rental inflation is not something that's tradable. I mean, you can't put tariffs on. We don't import, you know, multifamily buildings. I mean, a lot of that's already just done. And so, yeah, I mean, I think I think the rental disinflation probably continues. And I think we still have ongoing cooling in the labor market. So even if prices do go up, I mean, for some things, I mean, it'll just mean that people have to spend more on those things and cut back elsewhere.

你知道，住房租金的上涨并不像商品那样可以进行交易。我的意思是，你不能对它征收关税。我们不会进口多户住宅建筑。很多事情都已经既定了。因此，我认为租金的通胀可能会继续减缓。同时，我认为劳动力市场的降温趋势仍在持续。所以，即使某些东西的价格上涨，人们也只能在这些方面花更多钱，然后在其他地方削减开支。

I mean, ultimately, and that'll ultimately drive down the prices for those goods and services. So I don't think the nominal anchor is changing. And, you know, I mean, government spending is coming down, I think. So at least certainly that's what they're trying to do. So if that nominal anchor is not changing, it's, you know, the inflationary impact, I think, of tariff should be temporary. And, you know, I think the growth effects are dominant, more so than inflation effects.

我的意思是，从根本上说，这最终会降低这些商品和服务的价格。所以我不认为名义锚点正在改变。而且，你知道，我觉得政府支出在减少，至少他们肯定是这样去努力的。所以如果名义锚点不变，那么关税的通胀影响应该是暂时的。我认为增长效应比通胀效应更显著。

And I think the markets largely bear that out. So obviously the probabilities of cuts is going up. I think the first one is penciled in for June from the markets perspective. Correct me if I'm wrong on that. What do you think the probabilities are just you, Neil Dutta, personally, handicapping that between now and June, a cut before that? And what would that be dependent upon?

我认为市场在很大程度上支持这一点。因此，显然降息的可能性正在上升。我想市场预测第一次降息可能是在六月。如果我错了，请纠正我。 Neil Dutta，你个人怎么看在现在到六月之间降息的可能性？这将取决于哪些因素？

Yeah, I mean, so June is the first cut. The consensus right now is that two for the year, the market is around two and a half to three. So the markets kind of price for a little bit more, which is normal, I think, in terms of the weighted probabilities in the market, you know, I tend to think that we're going to see more rate cuts than not, because I think by waiting until June, the Fed's essentially saying that it's tolerating more weakness in the economy.

是的，我的意思是，六月是第一次降息。目前的共识是今年可能会有两次降息，而市场的预期大概是两次半到三次。所以市场定价略高一些，这是正常的。我认为，从市场的概率加权来说，我们可能会看到更多的降息，因为我觉得美联储推迟到六月才开始降息，基本上是在表明他们能够容忍经济出现更多疲软。

There's a lot of slowing in the pipeline. I mean, you know, labor markets continue to cool. You know, we started to see some, you know, obviously the work week is very low. Total income growth is moderating. A lot of the cyclical areas of the economy have been getting worse, particularly construction. A consumption. Yeah, consumption. I mean, look, I mean, last year, you had 3% real consumer spending, which was very strong. But that happened despite 1.5% growth in real incomes, excluding government transfers.

这段话的大意是，经济正在明显放缓。劳动力市场依然在冷却。我们注意到，工作时长明显减少，总收入增长也在放缓。经济中的许多周期性领域，如建筑业，情况变得更糟。消费方面也是如此。去年，实际消费者支出增长了3%，表现非常强劲，但这是在不包括政府转移支付的实际收入只增长了1.5%的情况下发生的。

So in other words, we saw a big drop in the savings rate. You have to ask yourself, why would that continue? I mean, the stock market's off, crypto is off, home prices are off. So if you're a person, I mean, why would you be lowering your savings rate in that kind of an environment where your asset values are going down? I think it probably warrants an increase in the savings rate, which means, you know, and even if the savings rate doesn't go up, if it stays flat, it means that consumption will converge onto the growth in incomes, which means that consumer spending will be growing 1.5% from 3% last year.

换句话说，我们看到储蓄率大幅下降。你得问自己，为什么这种情况会持续下去？我是说，股市下跌，加密货币下跌，房价下跌。所以如果你是一个普通人，为什么在这样一种资产价值下跌的环境中会降低储蓄率？我认为这可能需要提高储蓄率，也就是说，即使储蓄率不提高，保持不变，也意味着消费将与收入增长持平，这意味着消费者支出将从去年的3%增长降至1.5%。

That's not good. So I think we're growing below trend. We're growing below trend. I think that means upward pressure on the unemployment rate. And you know, the last thing I'd say is that, you know, we're going into the spring selling season. Builders are feeling more nervous about that. There's a risk that construction employment falls as a result, which had been relatively buoyant up until recently.

这不是件好事。我认为我们的增长低于趋势。我们的增长确实低于趋势。我觉得这意味着失业率有上升的压力。最后我想说的是，我们即将进入春季销售季节，开发商对此感到更加紧张。这可能导致建筑业的就业人数下降，而这个行业的就业情况直到最近还算比较稳定。

So to me, at some level, I just keep coming back to the economy is not going to really grow above trend until the Fed cuts, the Fed's not cutting. So it'll stay below trend and continue, you know, you continue to see this sort of bleeding out in the labor markets and housing and so forth. And the risk is, you know, you get some kind of nonlinear shock. You know, people just kind of throw their hands up in the air and, you know, you start to see a bit more of an increase in layoffs and so forth. And then you can get some pretty spooky jobs number. We're not there yet, but you know, that's that's clearly the risk. Right. So the risk is a weaker number between now and June. And that puts the Fed behind the curve, essentially.

对我来说，在某种程度上，我总是回到这样一个观点：在美联储降息之前，经济不会真正超越趋势增长，而美联储目前没有降息。因此，经济增长会保持在趋势之下，你会看到就业市场、住房等方面的持续疲软。风险在于，可能会出现某种非线性冲击，人们可能会失去信心，看到更多的裁员增加等现象。这样就可能出现非常糟糕的就业数据。目前我们还没到那一步，但显然这是一个风险。因此，风险是在现在到六月之间的数据更弱，这让美联储处于滞后状态。

Yeah, I mean, let's put it this way. I mean, the markets right now are priced two thirds, one third, right? Two third for May, that they look a one third chance that they cut. Okay. If the Fed's cutting in May, they'll probably be going 50. Oh, interesting. Yeah. Wow.

好的，让我这么说吧。目前市场的定价情况是，三分之二和三分之一，大约三分之二的概率在五月份，而他们认为有三分之一的可能会降息。如果美联储在五月降息，他们可能会降50个基点。哦，这很有趣。哇。

Okay. So let's talk about the news because you put this chart up on Twitter. I think it's an interesting one because it's going to tie in with something that happened this week from our side on the market strategy side. This is the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco News Economic sentiment. Talk us through this a little bit.

好的，让我们来聊聊新闻，因为你在推特上发布了这张图表。我觉得这张图很有趣，因为它将与我们这周在市场策略方面发生的事情有关联。这是旧金山联邦储备银行的新闻经济情绪指数。请给我们详细介绍一下。

Yeah. So basically, this is a, you know, I think they use Lexus Nexus. I mean, for those of us that remember that from our college years, basically scraping economic, you know, news and telling us, basically creating a sentiment index around that. And as the chart shows, you know, generally speaking, the news index kind of lines up reasonably well with more widely followed measures of consumer sentiment, right? Like, so it makes sense, right? So what people hear, I mean, that's kind of how they feel.

好的，基本上，他们使用了一个类似于Lexus Nexus的系统。对于那些在大学时期用过这个系统的人来说，这个工具主要是用来收集经济新闻，并根据这些新闻创建一个情绪指数。正如图表所示，总的来说，这个新闻指数与更广泛关注的消费者情绪指标相比非常一致。这其实是有道理的，因为人们听到的内容往往会影响他们的感受。

And obviously, the news has been getting worse because, you know, first from an, from a, you know, like, let's say someone that's really dialed in to like economics and markets, like maybe you. Yeah. Well, I mean, most people signed up for they knew what they were getting, they thought they knew what they were getting, right? I mean, they assume that with President Trump, they were getting tax cuts deregulation and tariffs. I think the problem was is that they thought they were getting it in that order. And clearly, they're not, right? So that's probably weighing on consumer sentiment, to some extent, or the news, obviously.

显然，新闻一直在变得更糟，因为，从一个真正关注经济和市场的人，比如你这样的角度来看，大多数人报名支持特朗普时，以为自己知道会得到什么。他们以为会有减税、放松监管和加征关税。我认为问题在于，他们以为这些政策会按这种顺序实施，但显然不是这样的。这可能在一定程度上影响了消费者信心，以及新闻报道的内容。

And even before that, I mean, this, this new sentiment index, it peaked back in the middle of November, right? Like, so the economic data has also been kind of deteriorating, even before Trump came in. And on top of that, you've had this sort of headline risk with the tariff tape bombs and so forth. So, you know, and the risk, of course, is that to the extent that weighs on consumer confidence, is that going to weigh on consumer spending. I mean, that would be, that would be the risk. I mean, the early data for February that we see, I mean, we'll get retail sales as I mentioned next week, they don't look good.

甚至在那之前，我是说，这个新的情感指数在十一月中旬就达到顶峰，对吧？所以说，即使在特朗普上台之前，经济数据也已经开始恶化。而且，除此之外，还出现了关税相关的新闻风险。所以，问题就在于，这种情况是否会影响消费者信心，从而影响消费者支出。这就是风险所在。我是说，我们看到的二月初步数据——我下周会提到的零售销售数据——看起来并不好。

So you'd had, you already had a week January, now you're going to have a week February potentially on top of that. You know, I mean, that's, that's not good news, obviously, for GDP tracking estimates. But you can under your point on the economy who's weakening before, I'm not trying to politicize us either way, it's a true statement. If we look at it from a market perspective, right, the percentage of issues above the 65-day moving average, which is a sign of breath peaked in the early fall, right? And it's been declining ever since.

你已经经历了一周的1月，现在可能要再加上一周的2月。这显然对GDP跟踪估算来说不是好消息。但你要理解经济在之前就已经开始走弱了，这不是政治化的问题，只是事实。如果从市场的角度来看，位于65天移动平均线上方的股票比例在初秋达到了顶峰，从那时开始一直在下降。

So you are seeing, right? Well, I mean, I think, look, it's sort of, like I said, I mean, I've mentioned this, we used just the, I mean, there were, we used the same playbook that we used from 2022, right? We made the no-lagging call in late 2022. It was about real incomes, housing, government, and where the, how the consensus was positioned. You'd look at those four things. Real incomes, as I mentioned, they were slowing. They're up one and a half percent, that's half the pace of consumption. It's getting worse, not better because the labor markets are cooling off.

所以，你明白了吗？哦，我的意思是，我觉得，你看，就像我之前提到的那样，我们使用的是我们在2022年用过的同样方法。我们在2022年年底做出了不滞后的判断。这是关于实际收入、住房、政府以及共识的立场。你需要关注这四个方面。正如我提到的，实际收入在放缓。它们仅增长了1.5%，这只是消费增速的一半。情况在变得更糟而不是更好，因为劳动力市场正在降温。

Housing, despite fed cuts, housing is getting worse. Back then, it was despite fed hikes, home building stocks were rallying. Very weird for recession. State and local government spending is contracting. That was going to happen regardless, because a lot of, I mean, they had a lot of pandemic relief money, and now they've exhausted it, so they're cutting back. And the consensus, consensus was expecting recession, you know, really through the middle of 2023.

尽管美联储降息，住房情况却在恶化。以前，即使美联储加息，住房建筑股票也在上涨。在经济衰退的背景下，这种情况显得非常奇怪。州和地方政府的支出正在减少。这种情况无论如何都会发生，因为他们之前有很多疫情救济资金，现在已经用完了，所以正在缩减开支。而且普遍的共识是，经济衰退预计会持续到2023年年中。

Now, we went into this year with everyone expecting two and a half percent growth, and no one thinking there was going to be a recession. We had the highest percentage change in S&P targets by strategists in December that we'd ever seen. They took, they were forced to take their forecast up, and it was complete capitulation. And as we've said, that was a mistake because the Congress was so evenly divided that any legislation was going to be a huge lift.

今年年初时，大家都预期经济会增长2.5%，没人认为会出现经济衰退。12月份，策略师们对标普指数的目标预测出现了我们见过的最大幅度的调整。他们被迫上调了预测，这简直是完全妥协。但正如我们所说，这样做是个错误，因为国会的势力非常均衡，任何立法通过都会非常困难。

Now, people talk a lot about uncertainty, and I agree that uncertainty hurts growth. I also think that, to some extent, that's a red herring. I mean, you were going to get uncertainty regardless. I mean, I think that you could make the case that if it wasn't short, the sort of front, I mean, you're seeing the front loading of the uncertainty, right? But if it was, let's say Trump had lost and Kamala had won, you would have gotten a lot of backloaded uncertainty, right? Because there would be a lot of risk around what would happen with corporate taxes and so forth.

现在，人们经常谈论不确定性，我同意不确定性会影响增长。但我也认为在某种程度上，这有点像个障眼法。我的意思是，无论如何你都会遇到不确定性。我觉得你可以说，现在的不确定性只是提早出现了。如果特朗普输掉选举而卡玛拉赢了，那会有很多延迟出现的不确定性。因为会有很多关于企业税等方面的风险。

So, you know, I mean, it's kind of, it was going to happen one way or the other, I think. I mean, certainly what Trump is doing is not helping at the moment. But, you know, to Steve's point, we have to, we don't, we do not yet know how the markets will react, you know, if other countries begin to reduce their trade barriers, right? I mean, you know, Scott Besset has long talked about using tariffs as a way to escalate and then deescalate, right? Like so, we pressure pressure and then both of us dial down the knobs at the same time.

所以，你知道，我的意思是，这件事不管怎样都会发生。我觉得，当然了，目前特朗普所做的事情并没有帮助。但是，就像史蒂夫说的，我们还不知道如果其他国家开始减少贸易壁垒，市场会作何反应。你知道，斯科特·贝塞特一直在谈论使用关税作为升级和降级的一种方式。就是说，我们施加压力，然后双方同时降低紧张程度。

We don't know how that's going to work just yet because it hasn't happened. So, you know, that's something to keep an eye out, which is why that April deadline might be, you know, more important for markets than maybe people think at the moment. Well, and on that, and this plays a little bit on that new sentiment, right? We got today, this week, I should say, the Investors Intelligence. So, Investors Intelligence, for those who don't know, is a survey. It's a service that was really created in 1963.

我们还不知道那件事会如何运作，因为它还没有发生。所以，这就是需要密切关注的事情，这也是为什么四月的最后期限可能比许多人目前认为的对市场更为重要。关于这个，还有今天或者说本周刚刚得到的一个信息——投资者情报。对于那些不知道的人来说，投资者情报是一项调查服务，实际上是在1963年创建的。

So, predating anybody on this call, and most people in the business still. And it was really designed to just figure out from newsletter writers, if people are bullish, bearish, or if they're really overly bullish or overly bearish, and if there's a contrarian opportunity there, the data that we've got up on the screen here just shows back to 2010. But you'll see that bears now outnumber bulls. That doesn't happen very often.

早在这个电话会议的任何参与者以及大多数仍在这个行业的人的前面，就已经有人设计了一种方法。这种方法的初衷是从通讯稿撰写者那里了解他们是否看涨、看跌，或者是否过于看涨或看跌，并寻找是否存在反向投资的机会。我们屏幕上显示的数据仅回溯到2010年。但你会注意到，现在看跌的人已经超过了看涨的人。这种情况并不常见。

It happens about 6% of the time over the entirety of the data set here. So, it's a relatively infrequent occurrence, but it tends to be bullish. About three weeks you spend in this inversion where there are more bears than bulls. But the idea here is that, you know, you've taken the news and people have digested that news and they've probably acted on that news in the equity markets. Obviously, we've got this decline of 10% in stocks.

在整个数据集中，这种情况大约发生6%的时间。因此，这相对来说是不常见的情况，但往往表现得很乐观。大约有三周的时间处于这样一个反转状态，即市场上看空的人比看多的人多。但这里的想法是，大家已经消化了这些消息，可能已经在股票市场上采取了行动。显然，我们看到股票已经下跌了10%。

It's greater than we thought we'd have a correction in the first quarter. We do not define a correction, by the way, as 10%. It really has to do more with volatility. This is a correction, for sure. We were in more than the 5% to 7% camp, so this is extending that. But the good news is that it is seeped its way into the equity markets. And historically, if you look at this with the exception of these big, bad bear markets, which I don't see, and I'll tell you why, this usually ends up being a pretty good opportunity to take the other side.

我们发现情况比我们预想的还要严重，第一季度确实出现了调整。不过，我们并不将调整简单地定义为10%的变动，而更多是在于波动性。毫无疑问，现在的确是一个调整期。我们本来估计是5%到7%的范围，现在看来更高了。但好消息是，这种情况已经渗透到了股市中。历史上，除了那些严重的熊市（而我不认为我们现在处于这样的情况，我会告诉你原因），通常这种情况其实是一个不错的反向操作机会。

So, if anything, one of the things that we're encouraging clients to at least think about is think more optimistically here. Don't think more pessimistically. That's already baked in or a lot of it's baked in. What's not baked in is the other side of the argument. And that's what you're hitting on is maybe we get this de-escalation. And if that's the case, a lot of good things could certainly happen.

所以，我们正在鼓励客户至少要乐观一点，不要总是往坏处想。这些负面的东西已经考虑在内或大部分已经反映出来了。而没有被充分考虑的是另一面的可能性，也就是你提到的可能出现的局势缓和。如果真是这样，很多好的事情都可能会发生。

So, I like the sentiments. One of the things that's been lacking, obviously, we talked about, we started the year in a pretty bullish state with how people were set up. But now they've absolutely taken a 180. You can see it in polls. You can see it in everything. So, I think that has an opportunity to surprise on the upside. One of the reasons why we don't think this is a big, bad bear is that when we look and we publish this on Twitter, when we look at the difference between the performance of credit and the performance of equities.

我喜欢这样的观点。显然，有些东西一直以来都是缺乏的，就像我们之前讨论过的，我们今年年初对市场非常乐观，大家都做好了准备。但是现在，情况完全发生了180度大转变。从民意调查和各方面都能看出这种变化。所以，我认为这可能是一个意外的上行机会。我们认为这不是一个大的熊市的原因之一是，当我们在推特上发布时，我们观察了信贷和股票表现之间的差异。

And there's some fancy math that we do to go into that. But there's essentially a relationship over time. And so, you measure that relationship over time. And we look at it today is what does that relationship look like? In other words, if I have a 5% decline in equities, I should expect an X% decline in credit. And when we look at that, that 10% decline in equities that we're getting today is far, far less than what we'd otherwise expect in credit.

我们通过一些复杂的数学方法来研究这种关系，但归根结底，这是一种随着时间变化的关系。你需要随时间对这种关系进行测量。我们现在就来看一下，目前这种关系是怎样的。换句话说，如果股票价值下降5%，我应该预期信用市场也会有一定比例的下降。那么，当我们观察今天股票价值下降10%的情况时，信用市场的下降幅度实际上远远低于预期。

So, it says to us that this is more sentiment driven than it is policy driven. A lot of people say, well, it's just a matter of time before credit is going to catch up. That's not really how it works. Usually, credit at worst is coincidental. And hopefully, it tends to lead because if you think about the silo within Wall Street, credit market guys and gals only care about getting paid back. They don't care about anything else. Equity investors are blue sky. They look at for earnings. They look for new ideas. They're the optimist of the group. The credit players tend to be the pessimist of the group, the commudgens. They get it right.

所以，这句话告诉我们，这更多是由情绪驱动的，而不是由政策驱动的。很多人会说，信贷终将赶上来，这只是时间问题。但事实并非如此。通常情况下，信贷与经济走势至多是同步的，但有时还能起到领先指向作用。因为在华尔街的不同领域中，信贷市场的参与者只关心能否收回贷款，他们不在乎其他事情。而股票投资者则更关注于盈利和新想法，他们是这群人中的乐观主义者。相比之下，信贷市场的参与者往往是悲观主义者，更加谨慎，他们经常能判断正确。

As we said on my days at Lehman Brothers, the third floor, we called them the third floor. So, anyway, so that's where we are. I think the sentiment is setting up well. The credit markets are not confirming the weakness that we're seeing in equities. And I would also say, financials aren't confirming the weakness that we're seeing in equities. They're weak, but they're not as weak as what you would expect given the overall decline.

在我在雷曼兄弟工作的日子里，我们用“三楼”来称呼他们。所以，无论如何，这就是我们的现状。我认为目前的市场情绪还不错。信贷市场并未像股市那样显现出同样的疲软。我还想说，金融板块也没有证实股市的疲软。它们表现疲软，但考虑到整体的下滑，它们并没有我们预期的那么疲软。

Steve, wake up, Steve. Patrick, wake up. All right. I know we've we've left you out in the cold. I'm sorry, buddy. What's going on next week? What should we expect this weekend? Is there anything we should be expecting? Or is this a faded complete? Are we done? Is is is policy in a the debt ceiling? All that stuff? Is it done? Are we we don't mean to worry about? Or is there going to be some last minute shenanigans? That's going to do a grenade in this thing as I'm trying to watch basketball.

史蒂夫，醒醒，史蒂夫。帕特里克，醒醒。好吧。我知道我们把你们晾在一边了，对不起，伙计。下周会发生什么？我们应该期待这个周末有什么事情吗？我们需要期待什么事情发生吗？还是已经尘埃落定了？我们结束了吗？政策和债务上限的事情都解决了吗？我们不用担心了吗？还是会有一些最后时刻的麻烦，像扔手榴弹一样打扰我们看篮球比赛？

Well, I was going to say, do we forget the mailbag? Oh, for God's sakes, we did. Thank you very much. You know, let's bring in our own Harry Chen to give us this week's question from the mailbag. Harry. Yes, sir. Good morning, sir. And the question today we have come from Mark on greeter. And his question is greatest momentum is generated early in the ball market, making press sort one of the best ways to confirm a new cyclical events. What are some of the best ways to confirm a new cyclical decline? Thank you. Great question, Mark.

好的，我本来想说，我们是不是忘记了邮件袋？哦，天哪，我们确实忘了。非常感谢。现在让我们请我们自己的Harry Chen来给我们带来本周的邮件袋问题。Harry。是的，先生。早上好，先生。今天的问题来自greeter的Mark。他的问题是：在牛市早期产生的动量是最大的，新闻报道是确认新的周期性事件的最佳方式之一。那么，有哪些更好的方法可以确认新的周期性衰退呢？谢谢，Mark，这是个很好的问题。

So the greatest momentum is generated early in a bull market. That is true. That's why Brett for us. In other words, how many stocks were advancing versus declining is a great way to confirm a new cycle advance. That's what we've seen in Hong Kong, by the way, it's what we've seen in China. So if you're looking for a kind of contemporaneous example, look no further than our friends, our friend of these, maybe in the east. And the question is, what are some of the best ways to confirm a new cycle decline? Just broadly speaking, I would say one of the biggest mistakes in this business is if an indicator works at a bottom or at a top, people automatically default to believe it's going to work in the other situation.

在牛市初期产生的动能是最大的。这是事实。因此，我们注意「广度」（Brett）。换句话说，观察上涨股票与下跌股票的数量对比是确认新一轮上涨周期的极好方式。这种情况我们已经在香港和中国见到过。所以，如果你在寻找一个当下的例子，就看看东方的这些朋友吧。而问题是，确认新一轮下跌周期的最佳方法是什么？总体来说，我认为在这一行业中最大的错误之一是，如果一个指标在底部或顶部有效，人们会自动假设它在其他情况下也会有效。

So if something works at the bottom, they think the exact opposite situation will work at a top and vice versa. And that's actually not true. And our statistics bear that out that a lot of indicators are asymmetrical. They'll work well at a bottom. They won't tell you the same thing at a top, at least not in the same fashion or the opposite fashion at the other extreme. So for us, Mark, that it's really a sequencing of events. And in fact, I would say overbought conditions in a market do not represent a cyclical or a new cyclical decline.

所以，如果某些策略在市场底部有效，人们常常认为在市场顶部采用完全相反的策略也会有效，反之亦然。但事实上，这种想法并不正确。我们的统计数据显示，许多指标是非对称的。它们在市场触底时很有效，但在市场顶部并不会以相同的方式或相反的方式发挥作用。对我们来说，马克，这实际上是一个事件的顺序问题。实际上，我认为，在市场中，超买状态并不代表市场会出现周期性的或新的周期性下跌。

What you're really looking for is kind of that deterioration, that lack of momentum. And as an aviator, I kind of think about it as you know, your plane is going up and your angle of attack, how quickly you're sending at some point gravity overpowers the power of the plane, almost regardless of the airplane. And it's that point where the as you're throwing that ball in the air, it starts to lose that momentum. And at some point, it's standing still.

你真正要找的其实是那种下降趋势，缺乏动能。作为一个飞行员，我会这样想：就像你的飞机在上升，你的攻击角度——上升的速度——在某个时候，重力几乎不顾飞机的型号，开始压过飞机的动力。就像你把球抛向空中，在某一刻，它开始失去动能，最终在空中停下来。

And what we're really trying to recognize are the points at which that is standing still. And we do it through a lot of different mechanisms. One, as a subscriber to our work, you'll see our market cyclo clock, which helps us to juxtapose inflation and growth. Then we'll look at some of these other things like breadth, not from an overbought standpoint, but really from a diverging standpoint, how, how weak are those indications of breadth are there very few names driving us higher? Are there a lot of names driving us higher? That's a good differentiator.

我们真正想要识别的是那些保持不变的关键点。我们通过多种机制来实现这一点。首先，作为我们的订阅者，你会看到我们的市场周期时钟，它帮助我们对比通货膨胀和增长。然后，我们会观察其他一些因素，比如市场宽度，但不是从超买的角度，而是从分歧的角度来看：这些宽度指标有多弱？是只有少数股票推动市场上涨，还是有很多股票在推动？这是一个很好的区分标准。

And then it's really just the tone, what's happening to the factors, what's happening to beta, what's happening to profitability or quality, what's happening to credit. So it's really a sequencing. It's not as easy as a bottom bottoms are actually fairly easy in this business. But when we look at tops, it's a lot more about sequencing and that sequencing of events to help kind of check the boxes as we go.

然后，真正需要关注的是整体的语调，还有各种因素的变化，比如贝塔系数的变化、盈利能力或质量的变化，以及信用状况的变化。所以这实际上是一个按顺序解读的过程。在这个行业中，判断底部相对较为简单。但当我们判断顶部时，更需要关注事件的顺序性，通过这个顺序来帮助我们逐步核对各个方面。

And as I mentioned, I mean, there were some of those in place, certainly not to the extent that we would identify this as a dangerous and large bear market. We've been wrong before, but we're pretty comfortable with that, that outlook here. Steve, now to you. Thank you for mentioning that and awakening from your slumber. What do you have next week? Well, hopefully not too much. We'll see. I mean, I suspect that stopgap will be addressed today. Worst case scenario be addressed at some point this weekend because we really have the effects until Monday. And right now the house is already in recess through next week, it's said it's supposed to join them. So you're not going to have to worry about Congress.

如我所提到的，确实有一些措施已经到位，但还没有到我们会将其认定为一个危险且重大的熊市的程度。我们以前也有判断错误的时候，但对于目前的情况，我们还是相当有信心的。史蒂夫，现在轮到你说了。谢谢你提到这一点并从沉睡中唤醒。下周你有什么计划？嗯，希望不会有太多事情。我们再看吧。我猜测今天会解决临时方案，最坏的情况下会在这个周末的某个时候解决，因为影响真的要到周一才会显现。目前，众议院已经休会到下周，传言说他们应该参加。因此，你不需要担心国会的事情。

I do think now that the funding piece has been addressed. You'll see congressional Republicans focus more on the contents of this reconciliation package have been reported after President Trump met with Senate Republicans. One, Senate Republicans now appear more open to the idea of addressing the debt limit. That was not included in the government funding package through reconciliation. That's important because we don't have to watch timing of that because at some point, if Republicans haven't moved this reconciliation package by the summer, that's when you start rubbing up against that x-state.

我确实认为资金问题现在已经得到解决。你会看到国会的共和党人更加关注总统特朗普与参议院共和党人会面后披露的和解方案的内容。首先，参议院共和党人现在似乎更加愿意考虑解决债务上限的问题。而这并未通过和解方案被纳入政府资金计划中。这很重要，因为我们不需要过多关注时间问题，因为如果共和党人到夏季还没有推动这一和解方案，那时就会开始与所谓的"x日期"碰撞。

The other thing that was notable is apparently President Trump pitched the idea of removing taxes for people making under $150,000. That was a new piece of news that came out over the course of his meeting yesterday and today. So the receptivity to that will be important. And then any news on the tariff front, you know, I don't anticipate any more tariff announcements. I think that's going to depend on whether other countries respond to the civil aluminum tariffs. We saw European Union and Canada respond from threatening to their retaliation. So far, a lot of others held their powder drive, maybe waiting, as Neil said, for that April 1st report to come out with respect to reciprocal tariffs.

另一个值得注意的事情是，特朗普总统提出了对收入低于15万美元的人减免税收的想法。这是昨天和今天他会议期间传出的新消息。所以对此提议的接受度将是非常重要的。此外，关于关税方面的消息，我不认为会有更多的关税宣布。我想这将取决于其他国家对民用铝关税的反应。我们看到欧盟和加拿大已经做出回应，威胁要进行报复。目前，其他很多国家可能都在保持克制，正如尼尔所说，他们可能在等待4月1日有关互惠关税的报告出台。

And then watch Friday. That is something that I think people may be looking past. That is when one of Trump's many day one executive orders called for one to address the global minimum tax from the Organization for Economic Cooperation Development, 15% that was being pursued by the Biden administration to prevent other countries from following through with their digital services taxes. There is supposed to be a deadline to provide a report on that. Again, that's sort of, I think, big picture later that April 1st deadline, but you could see some announcements on that this Friday.

然后关注星期五。我认为人们可能忽视了这一点。那是特朗普在上任第一天的众多行政命令之一，要求解决经济合作与发展组织（OECD）提出的全球最低税率问题，该税率为15%，这是拜登政府为了阻止其他国家推进数字服务税而提议的。当时规定要在某个截止日期之前提交一份报告。我认为这个大的背景似乎指向4月1日的截止日期，但这个星期五你可能会看到一些相关公告。

How did you miss St. Patrick's Day? Well, I mean, as for me, I have a three-year-old and 19-month-old, so I don't really do much of anything. All right, fair enough. Let me ask this. Is there any conversation about a flat tax or is that off the board? That's off the board. I mean, I think one of the things Neil mentioned is to reiterate this really important on the sequencing is last time you had the tax cuts, and they were cuts. You reduced the corporate rate from 20% to 21%. You also reduced the rate on the top earners. This time, you're really just talking about, as opposed to a tailwind, like last time, preventing a headwind this time.

你怎么没过圣帕特里克节呢？嗯，对我来说，我有一个三岁的孩子和一个19个月大的孩子，所以我确实没怎么过。好吧，可以理解。那我问一下，有没有讨论过统一税率，还是已经不考虑了？已经不考虑了。我想尼尔提到过的一个重要点是，要重申这次顺序非常重要。上次你们减税，确实是减税。你们把企业税率从20%降低到21%，还降低了最高收入者的税率。这次，你们只是在讨论如何避免成为阻力，而不是像上次那样成为助力。

You're really focusing on maintaining the status quo, so I don't really anticipate much on the tax cut front. I just think that's really important when you talk about getting that wiggle room to deal with tariffs and sequencing this time compared to last time. I mean, if you remember, it's going to break the. The permanent is a useful thing. I mean, that's how you actually affect behavior, right? I mean, right. And I think that's sort of the argument that you're making. There's just a chance of behavior around it. If it's a permanent tax cut, then they will. So there is something to be said for that.

你真的在专注于维持现状，所以我不太期待在减税方面会有太多变化。我认为这是非常重要的，特别是当你谈论应对关税和这次与上次的区分时。如果你还记得的话，这会打破某种固定状态，而这种固定状态是有用的，因为这实际上会影响人们的行为，对吧？我想，这就是你所说的观点。如果减税是永久性的，人们就会因此改变行为。所以，这方面确实有可取之处。

I mean, it's just such a. I mean, it's this time of year, right? It is such a pain in the neck, and I've got to write a check to figure out what type of check I'm going to write at the end of the year. It would be much easier to be able to say, hey, here's 20% of my income done. I can plan for that. No problem. I get it. I mean. Never happened. I know, but it just doesn't. It drives me bananas. There are too many loopholes in the code. I understand. I mean, that's true. Have look's father is part of the tax system. So I get it, but man, oh man, I should have it. So it'd be a lot easier.

我的意思是，这个时候，总是让人头疼。我得写支票来弄清楚年底要写什么样的支票。如果能直接说，“嘿，这就是我收入的20%，搞定”，那就容易多了，我可以提前计划，没问题。我知道，这永远不会发生，但这个现状真让我抓狂。代码里有太多的漏洞，我理解这点。我懂，这是真的。Have look的父亲是税务系统的一部分，所以我明白，但天哪，这应该更简单一点才对。

All right, Neil, what do you have next week? Well, we obviously have the Fed meeting next week, so that's going to be important. You know, look, my sense is that the Fed does not want to be in the news right now, right? Like, so if they make a big hawkish pivot of some kind, right? Like if they ratchet up their inflation forecast, if they remove the dot, if they do any of these things, it probably will unnerve the markets a little bit. And then they are the ones that kind of start owning some of the sell off, right? So I don't know that. We'll see, but my sense is that they'll reiterate two cuts for this year.

好的，尼尔，你下周有什么安排？嗯，我们下周显然有美联储的会议，这很重要。你知道，我的感觉是美联储现在不想成为新闻的焦点，对吧？比如说，如果他们做出某种强硬的转变，比如提高通胀预期，去掉某些预期点位，或者采取其他类似措施，可能会让市场有些不安，然后他们可能不得不承受一部分抛售压力。所以我不确定，我们拭目以待，但我觉得他们可能会重申今年会有两次降息。

I don't think the forecast will change all that much. I think they'll be revising down their growth forecast. That's where I have the most conviction. And to the extent they're worried about inflation, I think the vessel for that is going to be less in the forecasts or the economic projections and more in just the risk assessment. I mean, right now you have 16 saying that they think the risks to inflation are skewed to the upside. Maybe that goes up to all of them. I mean, you know, that that's something to consider.

我认为预测不会有太大变化。他们可能会下调增长预测，这一点我比较有信心。至于他们对通货膨胀的担忧，我认为这体现在风险评估中，而不是直接在预测或经济展望中。目前有16个人认为通胀风险偏向上行，也许以后所有人都会这么认为。这是需要考虑的一点。

In terms of the data, look, I mean, I think the data is actually going to be sluggish for February. Retail sales, what we see, so far suggests a very weak bounce after January, which was also weak. And makes sense, right? I mean, we're in the middle of a sell off. People are probably not drawing down their savings and they're seeing their income slow down. So it's hard to see why consumer spending would be strong in any meaningful way. And the high frequency data we get from the Chicago Fed as an example, Bloomberg, all kind of is pointing to something a little bit softer.

从数据来看，我认为二月份的数据可能会比较疲软。根据目前的情况，零售销售数据显示，二月份的反弹很弱，而一月份的数据也不强。这是有道理的，因为我们正处于市场抛售的中期，人们可能不愿意动用储蓄，他们的收入也在放缓。因此，很难想象消费者支出会明显强劲。而且像芝加哥联邦储备银行和彭博社的高频数据也都指向一个较为疲软的趋势。

And then we get industrial production. Factory work week wasn't particularly, total hours worked wasn't particularly strong in February. So I wouldn't really expect much there. I mean, the big news in manufacturing is that it hasn't really been doing much of anything for a long time now. And that's really where the rubber meets the road with tariffs, right? I mean, if tariffs are working, you should see production in the tariff area start to go up. And obviously it's too early to see any of this happen, but that's where you should expect to see it.

然后我们来看工业生产方面。二月份的工厂工作周并不特别突出，总工作小时数也没有显著增长。所以我不太指望会有太多变化。事实上，制造业的重大新闻是，它已经很长时间没有什么发展了。这正是关税起作用的关键所在，对吧？如果关税起作用，你应该会看到受关税影响的领域生产开始增加。显然，现在判断这些还为时过早，但这就是我们应该期待看到变化的地方。

That would be a sign of success of the tariff policy, in my opinion. And that's it. Well, from a market perspective, there's a couple things happening. Obviously, we talked about sentiment, we talked about credit and equities or credit versus equities. Also keeping an eye out, gold's making a new high, but we're also seeing it improve silver. And then a little less rambunctious, but certainly still more bullish than not is copper. And that's not being translated through the equity prices, free port, etc.

在我看来，这将是关税政策成功的一个标志。就这样。从市场的角度来看，有几件事情正在发生。显然，我们讨论了市场情绪，我们谈到信用和股票或者信用与股票的对比。同时需要注意的是，虽然黄金正在达到新高，但白银的表现也有所改善。铜虽然没那么活跃，但依然比预期更看涨。不过，这种情况并没有反映到股票价格上，例如自由港等公司的股价。

But we are seeing a pickup in some of the material names on a relative basis in China. So I do think that that's interesting, just as that is kind of playing itself out. And I would also just note that from a flow perspective, what we're seeing are some excessive outflows in the material space. So there's an interesting confluence. I mean, obviously we are more technical than that. That's our final arbiter, if you will, judge, jury and executioner.

我们注意到一些材料类的股票在中国市场上相对活跃起来了。我认为这很有趣，就像这一趋势正在展现出来一样。此外，从资金流动的角度看，我们也观察到材料领域出现了过多的资金流出。因此，这形成了一种有趣的结合。当然，我们的分析比这更加技术化，但最终，我们仍依赖这些技术分析结果来做出判断。

So we wait for trends to develop. But there are some interesting things brewing under the surface there. Also, just keep in mind that that's probably good news for global growth. There might be some tariff related things happening there. But I would also expect that that is probably more bullish than not for the overall outlook. And then we'll look for short-term signs in sentiment, mostly through option data. And we're going to be looking for signs of stress.

所以我们等待趋势的发展。但是，表面之下正在酝酿一些有趣的事情。此外，请记住，这对全球增长来说可能是个好消息。可能会有一些与关税相关的事情发生，但我也预计这对整体前景可能更乐观而非悲观。然后我们会通过期权数据来寻找情绪的短期迹象，并观察可能的压力信号。

There's a great quote, Walt Deemer remind me of that this week. There is no more ruthless seller on Wall Street than the margin clerk. And so we look for signs, not particularly through the margin data, but we look through signs of that kind of foreselling where you're a price taker, not a price seeker. And we believe it or not have yet to see that in this decline. So that would certainly be a feather in the cap for the bulls if we saw that.

有一句很棒的名言，这周沃尔特·迪默提醒了我。没有比华尔街的保证金清算员更无情的卖家了。因此，我们寻找这种被迫卖出的迹象，不是特别通过保证金数据，而是通过其他迹象来判断你是价格接受者，而不是价格寻求者。无论你相信与否，在这次下跌中，我们还没有看到这种情况的出现。这无疑会成为多头的一个优势，如果我们能看到这种情况的话。

Well, I'm going to take the afternoon off and watch my Spartans pursue another big 10. Well, they already got the big 10 title, but we're going to see if we can win the big 10 tournament. I'm sorry, Steve PSU is not in it this year, but you had a big win in hockey. So I don't know if that's something that you care about, but your win over you of him was pretty impressive. We'll see if you guys can keep going. We'll see. We'll see.

好的，我打算下午休息一下，看一看我们斯巴达人队能否在十校联盟锦标赛中取得好成绩。其实他们已经赢得了十校联盟的冠军，但我们还要看看能否赢得锦标赛的胜利。抱歉，史蒂夫，今年PSU没有进入比赛，不过你们在冰球上赢了一场大的。我不确定这对你有没有意义，但你们战胜了密歇根大学确实很了不起。我们来看看到底能不能继续保持这样的势头。拭目以待吧。

All right, George again next week will be one week older, one week wiser. We won't make it this long, I hope. And we'll have some more unscripted insights then until then I'm Jeff DeGraft. I'm Neil Gotta and I'm Steve Pathic. We'll see you.

好的，George下周又会老一周，也会更聪明一周。我希望不会再等这么久。到时候，我们会有更多即兴的见解分享。在这之前，我是Jeff DeGraft。我是Neil Gotta，我是Steve Pathic。我们下次见。