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Joseph Wang - Markets Weekly March 8, 2025

发布时间:2025-03-08 18:20:56   原节目
好的,以下是上述内容的中文摘要,重点关注关键要点和论据: 视频以回顾上周市场表现开场,指出标普500指数下跌,10年期国债收益率下降,美元走弱,尤其兑欧元。主持人声称这在其之前的市场展望中已经预料到。讨论主要集中在两个方面:分析上周的市场走势,以及考察欧元区内部财政政策出现的转变。 关于市场表现,主持人强调理解驱动投资决策的各种叙述的重要性。上周的主导叙述是特朗普总统对加拿大和墨西哥征收关税及其随后的部分取消。最初关税设定为25%,但很快被豁免而淡化,特别是对符合美墨加协议(USMCA)的商品。现在的重点转向计划于4月2日实施的潜在互惠关税,这使得政治发展至关重要。虽然关税对美国企业产生负面影响,但主持人认为这对加拿大和墨西哥来说将是“毁灭性的”。墨西哥似乎更倾向于寻求解决方案,可能与美国联合对中国征收关税,而加拿大似乎更具抵制性,引发了对局势升级的担忧。尽管有关税豁免的积极消息,但市场反弹证明是短暂的,表明存在潜在的疲软。 第二个叙述围绕美国经济增长放缓,最近的非农就业报告表明劳动力市场疲软,通过修正后的较低数字和劳动力参与率下降可以证明。亚特兰大联储的GDPNow预测也被强调。虽然之前的一次负值最初归因于进口激增,特别是黄金,但考虑到这些进口的调整仍然表明增长率大幅下降,约为0.4%,而近年来为3%。 主持人随后转向美联储和财政部的政策反应。尽管增长数据疲软,但鲍威尔(JP)和耶伦(Besant)似乎并不特别担心。鲍威尔承认移民、监管、财政政策和贸易即将发生变化,选择采取“观望”态度,而不是立即降息。耶伦强调了过去赤字支出对经济的影响,并认为需要进行一些“排毒”。她预计从政府支出转向私人支出会出现一些小问题。本届政府似乎并不担心当前的市场下跌,认为这是对政策转变的一种自然调整。特朗普的“看跌期权”并不存在。本届政府的重点是实现健全的政策。 从技术角度来看,主持人指出动能已经丧失,现货价格已经跌破了许多移动平均线,甚至在一个交易日跌破了200日移动平均线。主持人还指出,当前市场处于负Gamma区间,可能出现剧烈的反趋势上涨。主持人认为今年以来的低点尚未到来。 第二个主要主题是欧洲财政政策发生的重大变革,这源于对乌克兰战争的不同看法。特朗普政府领导下的美国正在寻求撤回对乌克兰的支持,旨在通过向双方施压以进行谈判来迅速结束战争。然而,欧洲希望继续支持乌克兰,但也认识到其对美国国防的依赖。因此,欧洲正在寻求一条不同的道路,目标是在军事政策上拥有更大的自主权。 欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩推动一项政策,鼓励成员国增加军事支出,并可能将其排除在欧盟的赤字限制之外。德国也宣布了一项重大政策转变,愿意在国防和基础设施方面投入大量资金。放松内部债务限制可能会在未来几年释放高达1万亿欧元。主持人将此解读为一项重大的财政刺激计划,可能对德国国防和德国股市产生影响。 这种转变已经在影响资本流动,随着投资者预期欧洲复兴,欧元走强。主持人承认,德国相对较低的债务与GDP之比为投资驱动的增长提供了充足的空间。然而,也存在潜在的负面风险,即第三次世界大战的可能。

Okay, here's a summary of the Markets Weekly video transcript provided, focusing on the key takeaways and arguments: The video begins with a recap of the past week's market performance, noting a decline in the S&P 500, a decrease in the 10-year yield, and a weakening dollar, especially against the Euro. The host claims this was anticipated in their previous market outlooks. The discussion focuses on two primary topics: analyzing the past week's market movements and examining the emerging shift in fiscal policy within the Eurozone. Regarding market action, the host stresses the importance of understanding the various narratives driving investment decisions. The dominant story of the week was President Trump's imposition and subsequent partial rollback of tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Initially implemented at 25%, the tariffs were quickly watered down with exemptions, particularly for USMCA-compliant goods. The focus now shifts to potential reciprocal tariffs scheduled for April 2nd, making political developments crucial. While the tariffs negatively impact US businesses, the host argues they will be "devastating" for Canada and Mexico. Mexico seems more inclined to seek a solution, potentially joining the US in imposing tariffs on China, whereas Canada appears more resistant, raising concerns about escalation. Despite positive exemptions, market rallies proved brief, indicating underlying weakness. The second narrative centers on slowing US economic growth, evidenced by the recent non-farm payroll report, which reveals a weakening labor market through revised lower figures and declining labor force participation. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate was also highlighted. While a prior negative print was initially attributed to a surge in imports, specifically gold, adjustments accounting for these imports still point to a significantly lower growth rate of around 0.4% compared to the 3% experienced in recent years. The host then turns to policy reactions from the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department. Despite weaker growth data, both JP and Secretary Besant don't seem particularly concerned. JP acknowledges upcoming changes in immigration, regulation, fiscal policy, and trade, opting for a "wait and see" approach rather than immediate rate cuts. Secretary Besant highlighted the impact of past deficit spending on the economy and sees some "detox" required. She anticipates some hiccups with a shift from government spending to private spending. The administration doesn't seem to be concerned by the current market declines, viewing it as something of a natural adjustment to policy shifts. Trump's "put" is non-existent. The administration's focus is on achieving sound policies. Technically, the host noted a loss of momentum, as the spot price has sliced through a lot of the moving averages and has even dropped below the 200 day moving average for a session. The host also notes the current market state being in negative gamma territory and that a violent counter-trend rally upwards is possible. The host believes that the lows of the year have not been met. The second major theme is the significant revolution happening in European fiscal policy, stemming from differing views on the Ukraine war. The U.S. under the Trump administration is seeking to withdraw support from Ukraine, aiming to end the war swiftly through pressuring both sides to negotiate. Europe, however, desires to continue supporting Ukraine but recognizes its dependence on the U.S. for defense. As a result, Europe is pursuing a different path, aiming for greater autonomy in military policy. European President Ursula von der Leyen promotes a policy encouraging member states to increase military spending, potentially exempting it from the EU's deficit limits. Germany also announced a major policy shift, willing to spend significantly on defense and infrastructure. The relaxing of internal debt limits could unleash up to a trillion euros over several years. The host interprets this as a substantial fiscal stimulus with potential implications on German defense and the German stock market. This shift is already impacting capital flows, strengthening the euro as investors anticipate a European renaissance. The host acknowledges that Germany's relatively low debt-to-GDP ratio provides ample capacity for investment-driven growth. However, there is also the potential for a negative downside risk with the potential for World War 3.