Markets Weekly March 8, 2025

发布时间 2025-03-08 18:20:56 来源

好的，以下是上述内容的中文摘要，重点关注关键要点和论据：视频以回顾上周市场表现开场，指出标普500指数下跌，10年期国债收益率下降，美元走弱，尤其兑欧元。主持人声称这在其之前的市场展望中已经预料到。讨论主要集中在两个方面：分析上周的市场走势，以及考察欧元区内部财政政策出现的转变。关于市场表现，主持人强调理解驱动投资决策的各种叙述的重要性。上周的主导叙述是特朗普总统对加拿大和墨西哥征收关税及其随后的部分取消。最初关税设定为25%，但很快被豁免而淡化，特别是对符合美墨加协议(USMCA)的商品。现在的重点转向计划于4月2日实施的潜在互惠关税，这使得政治发展至关重要。虽然关税对美国企业产生负面影响，但主持人认为这对加拿大和墨西哥来说将是“毁灭性的”。墨西哥似乎更倾向于寻求解决方案，可能与美国联合对中国征收关税，而加拿大似乎更具抵制性，引发了对局势升级的担忧。尽管有关税豁免的积极消息，但市场反弹证明是短暂的，表明存在潜在的疲软。第二个叙述围绕美国经济增长放缓，最近的非农就业报告表明劳动力市场疲软，通过修正后的较低数字和劳动力参与率下降可以证明。亚特兰大联储的GDPNow预测也被强调。虽然之前的一次负值最初归因于进口激增，特别是黄金，但考虑到这些进口的调整仍然表明增长率大幅下降，约为0.4%，而近年来为3%。主持人随后转向美联储和财政部的政策反应。尽管增长数据疲软，但鲍威尔(JP)和耶伦(Besant)似乎并不特别担心。鲍威尔承认移民、监管、财政政策和贸易即将发生变化，选择采取“观望”态度，而不是立即降息。耶伦强调了过去赤字支出对经济的影响，并认为需要进行一些“排毒”。她预计从政府支出转向私人支出会出现一些小问题。本届政府似乎并不担心当前的市场下跌，认为这是对政策转变的一种自然调整。特朗普的“看跌期权”并不存在。本届政府的重点是实现健全的政策。从技术角度来看，主持人指出动能已经丧失，现货价格已经跌破了许多移动平均线，甚至在一个交易日跌破了200日移动平均线。主持人还指出，当前市场处于负Gamma区间，可能出现剧烈的反趋势上涨。主持人认为今年以来的低点尚未到来。第二个主要主题是欧洲财政政策发生的重大变革，这源于对乌克兰战争的不同看法。特朗普政府领导下的美国正在寻求撤回对乌克兰的支持，旨在通过向双方施压以进行谈判来迅速结束战争。然而，欧洲希望继续支持乌克兰，但也认识到其对美国国防的依赖。因此，欧洲正在寻求一条不同的道路，目标是在军事政策上拥有更大的自主权。欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩推动一项政策，鼓励成员国增加军事支出，并可能将其排除在欧盟的赤字限制之外。德国也宣布了一项重大政策转变，愿意在国防和基础设施方面投入大量资金。放松内部债务限制可能会在未来几年释放高达1万亿欧元。主持人将此解读为一项重大的财政刺激计划，可能对德国国防和德国股市产生影响。这种转变已经在影响资本流动，随着投资者预期欧洲复兴，欧元走强。主持人承认，德国相对较低的债务与GDP之比为投资驱动的增长提供了充足的空间。然而，也存在潜在的负面风险，即第三次世界大战的可能。

Okay, here's a summary of the Markets Weekly video transcript provided, focusing on the key takeaways and arguments: The video begins with a recap of the past week's market performance, noting a decline in the S&P 500, a decrease in the 10-year yield, and a weakening dollar, especially against the Euro. The host claims this was anticipated in their previous market outlooks. The discussion focuses on two primary topics: analyzing the past week's market movements and examining the emerging shift in fiscal policy within the Eurozone. Regarding market action, the host stresses the importance of understanding the various narratives driving investment decisions. The dominant story of the week was President Trump's imposition and subsequent partial rollback of tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Initially implemented at 25%, the tariffs were quickly watered down with exemptions, particularly for USMCA-compliant goods. The focus now shifts to potential reciprocal tariffs scheduled for April 2nd, making political developments crucial. While the tariffs negatively impact US businesses, the host argues they will be "devastating" for Canada and Mexico. Mexico seems more inclined to seek a solution, potentially joining the US in imposing tariffs on China, whereas Canada appears more resistant, raising concerns about escalation. Despite positive exemptions, market rallies proved brief, indicating underlying weakness. The second narrative centers on slowing US economic growth, evidenced by the recent non-farm payroll report, which reveals a weakening labor market through revised lower figures and declining labor force participation. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate was also highlighted. While a prior negative print was initially attributed to a surge in imports, specifically gold, adjustments accounting for these imports still point to a significantly lower growth rate of around 0.4% compared to the 3% experienced in recent years. The host then turns to policy reactions from the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department. Despite weaker growth data, both JP and Secretary Besant don't seem particularly concerned. JP acknowledges upcoming changes in immigration, regulation, fiscal policy, and trade, opting for a "wait and see" approach rather than immediate rate cuts. Secretary Besant highlighted the impact of past deficit spending on the economy and sees some "detox" required. She anticipates some hiccups with a shift from government spending to private spending. The administration doesn't seem to be concerned by the current market declines, viewing it as something of a natural adjustment to policy shifts. Trump's "put" is non-existent. The administration's focus is on achieving sound policies. Technically, the host noted a loss of momentum, as the spot price has sliced through a lot of the moving averages and has even dropped below the 200 day moving average for a session. The host also notes the current market state being in negative gamma territory and that a violent counter-trend rally upwards is possible. The host believes that the lows of the year have not been met. The second major theme is the significant revolution happening in European fiscal policy, stemming from differing views on the Ukraine war. The U.S. under the Trump administration is seeking to withdraw support from Ukraine, aiming to end the war swiftly through pressuring both sides to negotiate. Europe, however, desires to continue supporting Ukraine but recognizes its dependence on the U.S. for defense. As a result, Europe is pursuing a different path, aiming for greater autonomy in military policy. European President Ursula von der Leyen promotes a policy encouraging member states to increase military spending, potentially exempting it from the EU's deficit limits. Germany also announced a major policy shift, willing to spend significantly on defense and infrastructure. The relaxing of internal debt limits could unleash up to a trillion euros over several years. The host interprets this as a substantial fiscal stimulus with potential implications on German defense and the German stock market. This shift is already impacting capital flows, strengthening the euro as investors anticipate a European renaissance. The host acknowledges that Germany's relatively low debt-to-GDP ratio provides ample capacity for investment-driven growth. However, there is also the potential for a negative downside risk with the potential for World War 3.

摘要

federalreserve #marketsanalysis 00:00 - Intro 00:41 - Drives of Market Decline 10:58 - European Fiscal Revolution For my latest ...

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中英文字稿

Hello, my friends. Today is March 8th, and this is Markets Weekly. So this past week was a very exciting weekend markets. We saw the S&P 500 down notably. We saw the 10-year yield notably lower, and there was a notable weakening of the dollar, particularly against the Euro. Now, none of this should be surprising to you all. I laid this out months ago, and my markets outline 2025. Take a look. And of course, more recently to my readers just two weeks ago.

你好，我的朋友们。今天是3月8日，欢迎收听《本周市场动态》。过去的一周在市场中非常激动人心。我们看到标准普尔500指数显著下跌，10年期国债收益率也明显降低，美元尤其是对欧元显著走弱。这些情况都不应该让你们感到惊讶。我几个月前就在2025年的市场展望中提到过这些，并且在两周前也提醒过我的读者们。

So today, let's talk about two things. First off, let's talk about what happened in the markets the past week. And secondly, let's talk about this revolution in fiscal policy happening in Euroland. All right, starting with the markets. Now, to understand price action, first, we have to listen to the different stories that are in the market right now. As I discussed in my free online course, market participants, everyone buys themselves for different reasons. So understanding the different stories in the market is essential for understanding what drives price action.

今天，我们来讨论两件事情。首先，我们聊聊过去一周市场上发生了什么。其次，我们来谈谈欧元区财政政策的变革。好了，先从市场谈起。要理解价格走势，我们首先需要倾听市场上不同的观点和故事。正如我在免费线上课程中所说，市场参与者各自买卖都有不同的原因。因此，理解市场中的不同故事对于掌握价格走势至关重要。

Now, the most prominent story of the past week was, of course, tariffs. Now, President Trump has been talking about putting 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for some time. They were supposed to go online in February, but at the last moment, there was a U-turn and they were delayed for one month. I'm guessing a lot of people were expecting the same thing to happen this month, but the tariffs actually did go into full effect, but only briefly. Now, right after putting on those tariffs, the president gave exemptions on autos and shortly after exemptions for anything that was USMCA compliant, which are most things involved in trade there.

最近一周最引人注目的事件当然是关税问题。特朗普总统已经有一段时间在谈论对加拿大和墨西哥征收25%的关税。原本计划在二月份实施，但在最后一刻，他改变了主意，将其推迟了一个月。我猜很多人都预料这个月也会发生同样的事情，但关税实际上确实全面生效了，不过只持续了很短的时间。在实施这些关税后，总统立即给予了汽车的豁免，随后对符合美墨加协定（USMCA）标准的商品也给予了豁免，而这些商品几乎涵盖了大多数涉及贸易的项目。

So at the end of the day, although the 25% tariffs did go on, Canada and Mexico, they weren't severely watered down. The president seems to want to shift the focus to April 2nd, reciprocal tariffs rather than the fentanyl-related tariffs right now. So the trajectory of this is going to depend a lot on political developments. Now, this trade war is going to have a negative impact on a lot of businesses in the US, but it's going to have a devastating impact on Canada and Mexico, who are much more reliant upon trade with the US.

总之，虽然加征了25%的关税，加拿大和墨西哥并没有因此遭受重大削弱。总统似乎想把重点转移到4月2日的对等关税上，而不是现在与芬太尼相关的关税。因此，这一事态的发展很大程度上取决于政治动态。目前来看，这场贸易战将对美国的许多企业产生负面影响，但会对更依赖与美国贸易的加拿大和墨西哥造成毁灭性打击。

So looking first at Mexico, President Sean Bonham over there is working really hard to try to work out a solution with the White House. She even floated a very interesting idea, noting that the US is fighting a trade war with China, Mexico could join and also put tariffs on China as well. So it seems like Mexico is working hard to hammer out a solution in. I'm getting the sense that things are going to be okay over there. Looking north to Canada seems like the Canadians are a little bit more unhappy with what's happening. I note that Doug Ford, who is basically governor of Ontario, the most populous state in Canada, was even suggesting that they could turn off the electricity and try to freeze the Americans.

首先来看墨西哥，那边的总统肖恩·邦汉非常努力地试图和白宫达成解决方案。她甚至提出了一个非常有趣的想法，指出美国正在与中国进行贸易战，墨西哥可以加入并对中国征收关税。因此，看起来墨西哥正努力找出解决办法。我感觉那边的问题会得到解决。再看向北边的加拿大，加拿大人似乎对此不太高兴。我注意到，道格·福特，他实际上是加拿大人口最多的省份安大略省的省长，甚至建议可以切断电力供应，试图让美国人陷入困境。

So I think the discussion up north is a little bit more escalatory. And so there's some more downside risk over there. But again, this is a fluid situation and we'll see what happens in the coming weeks. So tariffs again, one thing I also note is that these positive, I guess, tariff announcements where there was exemptions only listed at brief bounces in the markets that were quickly sold. So I thought that was kind of a red flag. But again, this is something that's going to continue and it's going to get even bigger as April 2nd approaches.

我认为北方的讨论有点激化，因此那里的风险更大。不过，这个情况还在变化，我们将在未来几周看到会发生什么。关于关税，我也注意到，这些正面的关税宣布（例如豁免）只在市场上引起了短暂的波动，很快就被抛售了。我觉得这有点像一个危险信号。但同样地，随着4月2日的临近，这个问题会持续下去并可能变得更大。

Now, the second common store in the market is about growth. Now, US growth seems to be faltering and that would argue for a lower stock market and lower interest rates. Now, this past week, we had the bigger non-forms payroll prince. And overall, it does suggest a weakening labor market. Now, the headline print was okay, a little bit weaker than expected. But looking at the revisions, last month's jobs report was revised lower, looking at wage growth a little bit lower than expectations. Last month was also revised lower. And of course, the labor force participation rate is lower as well.

现在，市场上第二种常见的说法是关于增长的。目前，美国的经济增长似乎在减弱，这可能会导致股市和利率下降。就在过去一周，我们看到了一份更高的非农就业数据。然而，总体而言，这反映了劳动力市场的疲软。虽然最新的数据表面上看起来还可以，但略低于预期。查看数据修正情况，上个月的就业报告被下调了，工资增长也略低于预期。上个月的数字也被下调了。当然，劳动力参与率也在下降。

So all in all, the labor market is definitely weakening. Now, if you look at the Atlanta Fed GDP now, which is kind of summarizes all the data coming in and gives an estimate of what GDP will be, we talked about it last week, whereas the big negative print was largely due to the surge in imports and should be not taken too seriously. Now, we have a little bit more information on that. Interestingly, yes, there was a surge in imports, but it was mostly gold imports.

总的来说，劳动力市场确实在走弱。如果你查看亚特兰大联储的GDP Now指标——它汇总了所有现有的数据，并给出GDP的估算，我们上周讨论过这个问题。其中一个大幅负增长的主要原因是进口激增，但不必过于看重这个因素。现在，我们对这一情况有了更多信息。值得注意的是，虽然进口的确激增，但主要是由于黄金进口的增加。

Now, the creator of the Atlanta GDP estimate actually wrote an article adjusting for all those gold imports. And according to his adjustment, the Atlanta GDP now should be about 0.4% annual growth rate. Again, that's notably lower than the 3%. We've been accustomed to the past couple of years. So again, the US economy is slowing. And so what you see in the market makes sense in that context. But when we think about the economic data, we also got to think about the policy reaction. As you all know, I believe that the most important driver in markets is policy. And that means what happens from the central bank and also from the legislator.

现在，亚特兰大GDP预估的创作者实际上写了一篇文章，对所有黄金进口进行了调整。根据他的调整，亚特兰大GDP现在应该是年增长率约为0.4%。这显然比我们过去几年习惯的3%要低得多。因此，美国经济正在放缓。在这个背景下，市场上的表现是可以理解的。不过，在考虑经济数据时，我们也必须考虑政策反应。正如大家所知，我相信市场中最重要的驱动因素是政策。这意味着中央银行和立法机构的行动也很关键。

Now, we heard from both JP and Secretary Besant the past week. So it seems interestingly, they're not too worried about what the growth at the moment. JP spoke on Friday. And in his speech, he talked about thinking that growth is still solid, not too worried. But he acknowledged that there were big changes coming forward, changes in immigration and regulation and fiscal policy and so forth and trade, of course. And his view seems to be that these big changes, you know, I have no idea what's going to happen. So I'm just going to sit here and wait.

最近我们听到了JP和贝桑特部长的讲话。他们似乎对目前的增长情况不是太担心。JP在周五的讲话中提到，他认为增长依然稳固，不用太担心。不过，他也承认接下来会有很大的变化，比如移民、监管、财政政策和贸易等方面的变化。他的观点似乎是，这些大变化可能会发生什么，他自己也不知道，所以他决定先静观其变。

So it did not seem that he was jumping on the rate cut wagon immediately. And it seems like the market is also not pricing in any emergency rate cuts as some market participants would like. Now, looking moving on to Treasury, again, the top economic official in the US, Secretary of Treasury Besant, gave an interview on CNBC. And what is he thinking about the economy? My administration created this bad equilibrium where the top 10 percent people in this room, probably most of the people watching this show, top 10 percent of Americans are 40 or 50 percent of consumption. And that is an unstable equilibrium.

因此，他似乎并没有马上跟随降息的潮流。而且市场似乎也没有像一些市场参与者希望的那样，预期会出现紧急降息。接下来，转到国债方面，美国的最高经济官员，财政部长贝桑特，在接受CNBC采访时，说到了他对经济的看法。他认为当前的政府制造了一个不良的平衡局面：这个房间里收入前10%的美国人，可能包括大多数观看这个节目的观众，占了40%到50%的消费。这是一种不稳定的平衡。

The bottom 50 percent of working Americans have gotten killed. We are trying to address that. We're trying to get rates down. And could we be seeing that this economy that we inherited starting to roll a bit, sure? And there's going to be a natural adjustment as we move away from public spending to private spending. The market and the economy have just become hooked. And we become addicted to this government spending. And there's going to be a detox period. There's going to be a detox period. I think that that.

美国最底层的50%劳动者受到了严重冲击。我们正在努力解决这个问题，并试图降低利率。我们继承的这经济是否在开始好转？当然有可能。随着我们从公共支出转向私人支出，经济将进行自然调整。市场和经济已经对政府支出产生了依赖，我们对此上瘾了。接下来会有一个去依赖的调整期。我认为确实如此。

So what are you saying is that, you know, this economy, it's been boosted up artificially by deficit spending. We're trying to cut down on deficit spending with Doge, get it to a more manageable level. So, you know, some hiccups are going to be expected, right? So he's not too worried about growth. There's no emergency simi-chives or anything like that. So it seems like he's okay with what's happening.

所以你是说，这个经济是通过赤字支出来人为推动的。我们正在尝试通过Doge削减赤字支出，使其达到一个更可控的水平。因此，出现一些小问题是可以预期的，对吧？所以他对经济增长不是太担心，也没有任何紧急措施之类的。所以他似乎对目前的情况还算满意。

Now, many people are also curious as to what the Trump administration is thinking about the decline in stock market. And that's an also spoke on that. Let's listen to what he said. Or what type of levels on the S&P do you think you would need to see where he might that might influence some of his policymaking decisions? President Trump takes in a lot of information every day and stock market is part of it. That again, is somebody who was on the other side for a long time. And you say, where's the Trump put in? There's no Trump put.

现在，许多人也对特朗普政府对股市下跌的看法感到好奇。我们来听听他是怎么说的。或者说，您认为在标普指数达到什么水平时，他可能会考虑调整一些政策决策？总统每天都会接收大量的信息，而股市就是其中的一部分。但你要知道，他很长时间以来都站在不同的立场上。你可能会问，特朗普会在哪个位置介入市场？但实际上，并没有所谓的"特朗普底线支持"。

Well, there's no put. The Trump call on the upside is if we have good policies, then the markets will go up. So basically, he's like, Trump put, never heard of it. So at the moment, the administration is not worried about the decline in the stock market. And to be clear, guys, we're just a few percent from all time highs. Let's revisit this one where 10 or 15 percent lower. So nothing, the policymakers are saying suggests concern, nothing, no concern. So the market is not going to get a boost there.

好的，没有“特朗普期权”这样的说法。“特朗普看涨期权”指的是，如果我们有好的政策，市场就会上涨。所以基本上，他的意思是，“特朗普期权”？没听说过。目前，政府并不担心股市的下跌。明确一点，我们目前的市场点位还距离历史最高点只差几个百分点。等到市场下跌10%或15%时，我们再来回顾这个问题。现在，政策制定者的言论没有任何表明他们对市场感到担忧的迹象，所以市场不会因此得到提振。

Now, other ways that people look at the markets and very popularly is through things like technicals. Now, a lot of people buy the market based on momentum, right? Things that tend to continue to go up. And this is actually one of the very few things that is empirically in the academic literature, empirically, something that holds up across assets and across time. And one of the ways that people look at momentum is through something very simple, like moving averages.

现在，人们分析市场的其他非常流行的方法之一是通过技术面分析。很多人根据动量来买入市场，简单来说，就是买入那些有持续上涨趋势的资产。动量投资其实是少数几种在学术文献中被实证验证过的、适用于不同资产和不同时间段的方法之一。分析动量的一种简单方法就是使用移动平均线。

If the moving, if the price, the spot price is above moving averages, there's upward momentum, it tends to go higher, right? You're in a bull market. If you look at the moving averages right now, 50 day, 200 day, 100 day, you'll notice that the spot price has sliced through a lot of the moving averages. This past week, we were actually below the 200 day moving average for a session, but we did bounce back above it towards the end of the week.

如果现货价格高于移动平均线，就说明有向上的动能，通常价格会进一步上涨，对吧？这意味着你处于牛市中。如果你现在查看50日、100日和200日的移动平均线，你会注意到现货价格已经穿过了许多移动平均线。在过去的一周，我们实际上有一个交易日的价格低于200日移动平均线，但在周末前又反弹回到了其上方。

So it does seem a very clear loss of momentum. And a lot of people who trade according to this will be worried about it. Again, one other thing that people look at is, of course, volatility, a lot of options hedging behavior. Smart people and options have noted that we are very much in negative gamma territory. So we see a lot of volatility in price action. That's not surprising and not very supportive. Although, of course, looking at volatility implied volatility is pretty rich relative to realize. So be on the lookout. Any moment now, we could have a vol smash lower and you could have a very violent counter trend rally upwards. So that is definitely in the cards and totally normal that we see throughout market history, right? Nothing goes straight up or straight down. There are always these violent counter reactions.

看起来动能的确明显减弱了。很多根据动能进行交易的人对此感到担忧。另外，人们常关注波动性和大量期权对冲行为。聪明的期权交易者注意到，我们现在处于非常负的伽玛区域。因此，价格波动很大，这并不意外，也不太有利。虽然从隐含波动率来看，它相对于实际波动率显得很高。所以要警惕，随时可能出现波动性大幅下降的情况，而这可能引发强烈的逆势反弹。这在市场历史上是非常常见的现象，没有什么东西是单边上升或下跌的，总会有这种强烈的反向波动。

So overall, looking at the markets, and again, a lot of stories does suggest that we, the trend seems to have changed. And personally, I believe that the lows of the year are not yet in. I've also made changes to my market view portfolio that is available to subscribers on my website. So if you're interested in how I view the markets, you can take a look. All right. The second story we want to talk about is the huge, huge revolution that's happening in European fiscal policy. So this, well, some context here. So as we all know, the US and Europe have different viewpoints on what's happening, how they should approach the war in Ukraine. Now, the Biden administration was very supportive of the war in Ukraine and the European were on the same page. But suddenly we have an election and the new Trump administration is taking a very different view.

总体来说，看着市场的动态，很多信息显示趋势似乎已经发生了变化。就我个人而言，我认为今年的市场低点还没到。我也在我的个人网站上为订阅者更新了我的市场观点投资组合。如果你对我如何看待市场感兴趣，可以去看看。好了，我们接下来说第二个话题，就是欧洲财政政策中正在发生的巨大变革。先给点背景信息。众所周知，美国和欧洲在如何处理乌克兰战争的问题上有不同的看法。拜登政府非常支持乌克兰的战争，欧洲国家也持相同立场。然而，随着选举的进行，新上任的特朗普政府对这一问题的看法却非常不同。

And that seems to be surprising a lot of people in Europe, but really they shouldn't. President Trump has been talking about getting out of the Ukraine war for some time. Now, President Trump realizes that the Ukraine war is only possible because the US offers support when it comes to military intelligence and a lot of equipment and supply of equipment and money. So President Trump wants to end the Ukraine war ASAP. The Europeans don't really want to do that. The Ukraine wants to continue fighting. But it's a difficult situation for them because over the past year, you know, the war has not been going well when from the Ukrainian standpoint, Russia has steadily advanced and has taken some territory.

这让很多欧洲人感到惊讶，但实际上他们不应该感到意外。特朗普总统一直在谈论退出乌克兰战争。现在，特朗普总统认识到，乌克兰战争之所以可能进行，是因为美国在军事情报、设备供应和资金方面提供了支持。所以特朗普总统希望尽快结束乌克兰战争。欧洲人不太希望这样做，而乌克兰则想继续战斗。但这对他们来说是个困难的局面，因为过去一年里，从乌克兰的立场来看，战争并没有进展顺利，俄罗斯在持续推进并占领了一些领土。

Now, another really limiting factor is that Ukraine seems to be running out of soldiers, right? So even if you continue to give them war material, they also need people to fight, but they're running out of soldiers as well. Now, I want to take a step back and remind everyone that over the past two years, a lot of the legacy media, the talking kids have been saying that, you know, we're going to put sanctions on Russia, Russia's economy is going to collapse, Russia's just the gas station with nukes. We're just going to give arms to Ukraine and they're going to win. And over the past two years, that just didn't happen. Those guys were totally wrong. So I want to be careful when you listen to what happens on the ground, there's a lot of propaganda there.

现在，另一个真正的限制因素是乌克兰似乎快没有士兵了，对吧？所以即使继续给他们提供军事装备，他们也需要有人来作战，但士兵也快耗尽了。现在，我想回顾一下，提醒大家在过去两年里，很多传统媒体和评论人士都在说，我们会对俄罗斯实施制裁，俄罗斯经济会崩溃，俄罗斯只是一个拥有核武器的加油站。我们只需要给乌克兰提供武器，他们就会获胜。但在过去两年中，这并没有发生。那些人完全错了。所以，当你听到地面发生的事情时，我希望大家谨慎对待，因为其中有很多宣传。

I personally really like listening to people like Colonel Douglas McGregor, former U.S. Army colonel, he's been spot on in his assessment of the war of the past two years. If you want a more European perspective, Colano Jacques Bull, formerly of Swiss intelligence, has a lot of podcasts on YouTube, he's been spot on also has books on the subject. So these guys have been spot on on the development of the Russia-Ukraine war. If you want some good insight as to what's going on over there, I recommend you guys listen to them. But anyway, they foretold this trajectory of the war basically years ago.

我个人很喜欢听道格拉斯·麦克格雷格上校（前美军上校）讲话，他对过去两年战争的评估非常准确。如果你想了解更多欧洲的观点，前瑞士情报官雅克·布尔上校在 YouTube 上有很多播客，他同样很有洞察力，也写了关于这个话题的书。这些人对俄罗斯与乌克兰战争的发展预测得非常精准。如果你想深入了解那边的情况，我推荐你们听听他们的观点。无论如何，他们几年前就预见了这场战争的发展趋势。

So now that the war is not going well in Ukraine and, you know, what do we do? Well, the U.S. just wants to pull out, say that we would just have, you know, peace, no one starts dying. Everyone, everyone stops. So the U.S. is putting pressure on both Russia and Ukraine to stop the war, again, withdrawing support from Ukraine and threatening big sanctions on Russia unless they come to the table. That's what the U.S. wants. Now, that's a big problem for the Europeans because, well, they're completely dependent upon the U.S. for defense and but they want to continue to fight the war. So they're marking out a very different path now.

现在乌克兰的战争局势不太顺利，那么我们该怎么办呢？美国希望撤出，并声明我们希望实现和平，不再有人员伤亡。因此，美国正在对俄罗斯和乌克兰施加压力，要求他们停止战争，并威胁如果俄罗斯不谈判就会实施严厉制裁。同时，美国也在减少对乌克兰的支持。这就是美国的立场。然而，这对欧洲人来说是个大问题，因为他们在防御上完全依赖美国，但他们却希望继续进行战争。因此，他们现在正在寻求一条截然不同的道路。

They're being so they're saying that, you know, we don't want to be completely dependent upon the U.S. for military policy. We want to have our own say. And after all, the U.S. has been badgering us about not spending enough on defense for some time. So this is what we're going to do. On the European level, European President Ursula von der Leyen has this new policy, whereas encouraging the members who hate to spend more on military. Now, in the European Union, they have this rule that you're not supposed to spend have a budget deficit of 3%, but of course that that's not really something that's super highly enforced. France has a budget deficit higher than that. It seems to be only enforced against smaller countries like Greece.

他们表示，他们不想在军事政策上完全依赖美国，希望拥有自己的发言权。毕竟，美国一直在指责他们防务开支不足。所以，他们决定这么做。在欧洲层面上，欧洲委员会主席冯德莱恩推出了一项新政策，鼓励那些不愿多花军费的成员国增加军费开支。而在欧盟内部，有一条规定是不应该有超过3%的预算赤字，但这条规定并没有被严格执行。比如，法国的预算赤字就高于这个比例。看起来，这条规定只对像希腊这样的小国有效。

But in any case, they seem to be exempting military spending from that deficit limit up to. So that, in theory, could unleash up to hundreds of billions of military spending. Now, in addition to that, Germany, which has been pretty pacifist over the past few decades, actually announced major policy changes where they are willing to spend hundreds of billions on defense and infrastructure as well. Now, Germany has an even stricter policy when it comes to debt by the spending. They have a limit internally of about 0.3% when it comes to deficit. They're going to relax that when it comes to military spending, unleashing from their expense up to a trillion dollars in euros over a period of years.

但无论如何，他们似乎将军费开支排除在赤字限制之外。因此，理论上可以释放出数千亿的军费。此外，过去几十年来一直较为和平的德国实际上宣布了重大的政策变化，他们愿意投入数千亿资金用于国防和基础设施建设。现在，德国在债务方面的政策甚至更为严格，内定的赤字限制约为0.3%。然而，关于军费开支，他们将放宽这一限制，在未来几年内可能在军费上花费高达一万亿欧元。

So if Europe is deciding to have a fiscal stimulus, that's going to have big impacts on their economy and financial markets as well. Again, the immediate impact, of course, was German bun yields. You see the German bun yield basically going parabolic. Of course, if you're going to, if you're telling everyone that you're going to issue up to a trillion dollars in debt in the coming years, obviously, bond rates are going to go up. But of course, it does suggest stronger fiscal stimulus as well. So that's positive for the economy, especially the German defense box. If you look at the German stock market, the DAX absolutely surging like a meme coin.

所以，如果欧洲决定实行财政刺激政策，这将对其经济和金融市场产生重大影响。同样，最直接的影响当然是德国国债收益率。你会看到，德国国债收益率几乎呈现抛物线式上升。当然，如果你告诉大家，你将在未来几年发行高达一万亿美元的债务，很显然债券利率会提高。但这也表明更强劲的财政刺激政策，这对经济是有利的，尤其是对德国的国防行业来说。如果你看看德国的股市，DAX指数像流行的加密货币一样暴涨。

And I personally found it very interesting in this interview from a German defense company, CEO, going on Bloomberg, his stock is doubled this year and actually hit limit up on that particular interview day. You can see the smile on his face when asked about it in an interview. Oliver, the stock came into the beginning of this year at 35 and now trading at 66. We've got a volatility interruption this morning. The stock has absolutely soared. Okay.

在这次采访中，我个人觉得非常有趣的是，这位德国国防公司CEO在彭博社上接受采访时，他公司的股票在今年翻了一倍，并且在那天的采访中达到了涨停板。你可以在采访中看到，当被问及这件事时，他脸上带着笑容。Oliver，这只股票在今年年初时价格是35，现在已经涨到66。今天早上还出现了波动中断，股票已经彻底飙升。

Now, as Europe is going to do more fiscal stimulus, you can see that there's a lot just sea change when it comes to global capital flows, the euro strengthened notably because everyone is seeing everyone who's thinking that Europe was just not going to make it, no growth, no nothing. Everyone left Europe and began investing in MAG 7 in the US. But now it seems like a lot of the money is flowing back. Huge, huge strengthening of the euro the past week as everyone tries to get ahead of a potential European renaissance.

现在，随着欧洲将采取更多的财政刺激措施，可以看到全球资本流动出现了显著的变化。欧元明显走强，因为很多人曾认为欧洲不会成功，没有增长、没有发展，纷纷离开欧洲，转而投资于美国的MAG 7（指市场上的大型科技公司）。但是现在，似乎大量资金正在流回欧洲。在过去的一周中，欧元大幅走强，因为大家都想赶在欧洲可能复兴之前占得先机。

Now, the good news is that, you know, if you look at global debt across the world, German debt to GDP is really, really low compared to other countries. So they definitely have the capacity to level up in investing growth. And we've all heard about how German industry has not been doing well, having trouble competing with China and so forth. Now, now they can maybe build a war industry. So this is a very positive growth story for your land. And it's going to have implications on assets in the US as well.

好消息是，如果你看看全球的债务水平，德国的债务与GDP的比率相对其他国家来说非常低。所以他们确实有能力通过投资来促进增长。我们都听说过，德国的工业近年来发展不佳，难以与中国等国家竞争。但是现在，他们可能可以发展军工产业。这对德国来说是一个非常积极的增长故事，并且也会对美国的资产产生影响。

And I think that's what I will write about in my blog today. Now, one thing though that I would emphasize is that this also has potential very severe downside as well. Because if you really are remilitarizing and there is some discussion of maybe sending European troops to Ukraine to continue the fight, you know, that suggests that maybe we won't have peace. Maybe everyone will go and join in the war. And you know, that kind of sounds like World War 3 to me.

我想这就是我今天要在博客中写的内容。不过，我想强调一点，就是这件事也有可能带来非常严重的负面影响。因为如果真的在重新军事化，并且已经有一些关于可能派遣欧洲军队去乌克兰继续战斗的讨论，你知道，这可能意味着我们不会有和平。可能所有人都会投入战争。对于我来说，这听起来有点像第三次世界大战。

So again, some downside risk over there. All right. So that's all I prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in. Remember to like and subscribe. And man, this is such an exciting time to be in Global Macro. I can't wait to see what happens next week. Talk to you all then.

好的，所以那边还是存在一些下行风险。好了，这就是我今天准备的全部内容。非常感谢你的收看。记得点赞和订阅。哇，现在是参与全球宏观经济的激动人心的时刻。我迫不及待想看看下周会发生什么。下次再聊。