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Joseph Wang - Markets Weekly February 8, 2025

发布时间:2025-02-08 17:52:13   原节目
以下是对您提供的“市场周报”视频文字稿的总结翻译: 演讲者首先声明当前日期是2月8日,然后直接切入市场波动,并表达了个人观点,认为今年的市场顶部可能已经出现。 讨论主要集中在三个方面:关税、特朗普政府的行动(主权财富基金、关于利率的评论以及“Doge”的影响)以及最近的非农就业数据。 **关税:** 演讲者回顾了上周对加拿大、墨西哥和中国可能被征收关税的担忧。 在暗示了一种谈判策略后,特朗普出人意料地暂停了对加拿大和墨西哥的关税。 然而,演讲者强调这可能仅仅是一个更大的战略的开始。 随后,演讲者展示了一段特朗普的视频片段,其中特朗普表示他希望加拿大成为免受关税影响的第51个州,暗示了这种想法背后可能隐藏着严肃的意图,可能与加拿大的自然资源有关。 关于墨西哥,演讲者认为特朗普的重点是将制造业带回美国,解决公司搬迁到墨西哥以规避美国关税的问题。 重要的是,演讲者指出,对中国征收的10%关税确实悄然生效,尽管中国似乎淡化了这一举措。 新的战线是与欧盟,讨论“对等关税”的想法,即向其他国家收取与他们向美国收取的相同关税。 演讲者预计,欧盟将成为下一个潜在关税目标,理由是他们与美国之间的贸易顺差。 抱怨的是欧盟对美国商品(在这种情况下是汽车)征收关税。 演讲者指出,欧盟已采取措施降低美国汽车的关税,并且欧盟购买了更多的美国天然气,以满足美国的要求。 演讲者指出,特朗普政府所做的一切都会引起争议,并且常常面临法律挑战。 对加拿大和墨西哥的关税是在IEPA(国际紧急经济权力法)下以国家健康紧急情况为幌子征收的,并且需要适当的文件才能完成经济关税,例如调查,这些调查可能要到四月份才能完成。 演讲者总结了关税讨论,预测贸易战在好转之前会恶化,特别是随着特朗普的重点转向欧洲。 **特朗普政府的行动:** 接下来,演讲者讨论了特朗普关于建立美国主权财富基金的行政命令。 他们表示惊讶和担忧,因为主权财富基金通常与拥有大量贸易顺差或丰富自然资源的国家相关,而美国则面临财政赤字。 演讲者担心该基金可能被滥用。 举例来说,商务部长Ludic表示,如果美国从一家疫苗制造商处购买疫苗,美国可以获得该公司股票的认股权证,从而获得与该公司开展业务的好处。 演讲者认为拥有另一个秘密基金令人担忧,美国需要获得该基金的正确治理权。 演讲者分析了财政部长贝桑特关于利率的评论,指出贝桑特并不是试图强迫美联储降息,而是试图降低整个利率曲线。 贝桑特的目标是通过降低能源价格、放松管制和增加增长的计划来实现这一目标,演讲者认为这是一种常规方法。 重点转移到“Doge”的影响,指的是埃隆·马斯克及其减少政府浪费的努力。 演讲者表示,Doge关闭美国国际开发署导致媒体和非政府组织因失去资金而反击。 演讲者认为Doge在削减政府开支方面是有效的,并且有6万人接受了这项提议。 演讲者随后举了一个好意变成秘密基金的例子,给出了欺诈性救护车运营商的例子。 演讲者对Doge的努力持积极态度。 **就业市场报告:** 演讲者分析了最近的就业市场报告。 虽然总体就业增长略低于预期,但由于向上修正和出人意料的强劲工资增长,演讲者认为该报告毫无疑问是强劲的。 失业率降至4%。 他们认为市场的反应(整个曲线走高)是对该报告的正确解读。 然而,演讲者缓和了这种热情,强调这只是一份报告,总体趋势仍然指向劳动力市场降温。 演讲者最后感谢听众,并期待下周的讨论。

Here's a summary of the "Markets Weekly" video transcript you provided: The speaker starts by stating the current date, February 8th, and dives straight into the market volatility, expressing a personal sentiment that the market top for the year may have already occurred. The discussion focuses on three main areas: tariffs, Trump administration actions (sovereign wealth fund, comments on interest rates, and the impact of "Doge"), and the recent non-farm payroll data. **Tariffs:** The speaker reviews the previous week's concerns about potential tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. Trump surprisingly paused tariffs on Canada and Mexico after hinting at a negotiating tactic. However, the speaker emphasizes that this might just be the beginning of a larger strategy. The speaker then presents a clip of Trump stating that he wants Canada to be the 51st state to be free from tariffs, suggesting possible serious intent behind this idea, potentially related to Canada's natural resources. Regarding Mexico, the speaker believes Trump's focus is on bringing manufacturing back to the US, addressing the issue of companies relocating to Mexico to bypass US tariffs. Importantly, the speaker points out that 10% tariffs on China did quietly go into effect, though China appeared to downplay the move. The new front is with the EU, discussing the idea of "reciprocal tariffs," charging countries the same tariffs they charge the U.S. The speaker anticipates that the European Union is the next target for potential tariffs, citing the trade surplus they hold with the U.S. The complaint is that the European Union tariffs U.S. goods, in this case, cars. The speaker notes there have been responses from the EU to lower tariffs on U.S. cars, and that the EU has bought more natural gas from the U.S., as a way to satisfy the U.S. The speaker notes that everything the Trump administration does draws controversy and often legal challenges. The tariffs for Canada and Mexico were under IEPA, on the guise of national health emergency, and that there needs to be proper paperwork to get economic tariffs done, like investigations, which may not be ready until April. The speaker concludes the tariff discussion by predicting the trade war will worsen before improving, especially with Trump's focus shifting towards Europe. **Trump Administration Actions:** Next, the speaker discusses Trump's executive order to create a U.S. sovereign wealth fund. They express surprise and concern, as sovereign wealth funds are typically associated with countries having substantial trade surpluses or abundant natural resources, unlike the U.S., which faces a fiscal deficit. The speaker worries about potential misuse of the fund. An example given is Secretary of Commerce Ludic stating if the U.S. buys from a vaccine manufacturer, the U.S. could get warrants on the company's stock, capturing the upside of doing business with the company. The speaker thinks having another slush fund is worrying and the U.S. needs to get the governance rights for the fund right. The speaker analyzes comments from Secretary of Treasury Besant on interest rates, noting that Besant isn't trying to bully the Fed to cut, but get the entire interest rate curve down. Besant aims to achieve this through his plan of reducing energy prices, deregulation, and increasing growth, which the speaker sees as a conventional approach. The focus shifts to the impact of "Doge", referring to Elon Musk and his efforts to reduce government waste. The speaker says Doge shutting down USAID led to media and NGO pushback due to loss of funding. The speaker believes Doge is being effective in cutting government spending, and that 60,000 people took the offer. The speaker then gives an example of how good intentions become a slush fund, giving the example of fraudulent ambulance operators. The speaker is positive on the efforts from Doge. **Job Market Report:** The speaker analyzes the recent job market report. While headline job gains were slightly lower than expected, the speaker deems the report as unambiguously strong due to upward revisions and surprisingly strong wage growth. The unemployment rate declined to 4%. They recognize the market reaction, with the entire curve shifting higher, as a correct interpretation. However, the speaker tempers this enthusiasm, emphasizing that it's just one report and the overall trend still points towards a cooling labor market. The speaker concludes by expressing gratitude to the audience and anticipation for the next week's discussion.