Markets Weekly February 8, 2025

Hello my friends, today is February 8th and this is Markets Weekly. So last week, a ton of things happening so a lot to talk about. Market itself was pretty volatile and personally, I'm beginning to get the sense that the top is in for the entire year. But anyway, first let's have an update on tariffs. Last week we talked about the impending tariffs on Canada and Mexico and now it seems there are new tariffs to worry about this coming week. Secondly, Trump did a whole bunch of stuff last week so let's talk a little bit about the sovereign wealth fund, about doge and about comments from Secretary Bassett. And lastly, we did get some data last week so we got to talk a little bit about the non-farm payrolls.

你好，我的朋友们，今天是2月8日，欢迎收看《市场周报》。上周发生了很多事情，所以有很多内容要聊。市场本身相当波动，而我个人开始感觉今年的市场可能已经见顶了。不过首先，我们先来更新一下关税的问题。上周我们谈到了即将对加拿大和墨西哥征收的关税，现在看来，本周还有新的关税问题需要关注。其次，上周特朗普有很多动作，所以我们来聊聊主权财富基金、狗狗币，以及巴塞特部长的评论。最后，我们上周得到了些数据，所以我们得聊聊非农就业数据。

Alright, starting with tariffs. So last week we were all kind of on the edge thinking whether or not Trump would impose 25% tariffs on Canada, on Mexico and 10% on China. Well, on Monday Trump surprisingly just told everyone that he has a deal with Mexico so tariffs on pause for a month and surely after the same thing for Canada. So it looked like that was a negotiating ploy. But is that the end? Now personally I continue to think that this is really just the beginning. Now at a press conference on Monday Trump was asked about his Canadian tariffs. This is what he said.

好的，先从关税开始。上周我们都在紧张地思考特朗普是否会对加拿大和墨西哥征收25%的关税，对中国征收10%的关税。结果在周一，特朗普出人意料地告诉大家，他已经和墨西哥达成了一项协议，所以关税暂缓一个月，显然对加拿大也是如此。所以这看起来像是一种谈判策略。但这就是结束了吗？我个人继续认为这其实只是个开始。在周一的新闻发布会上，特朗普被问到关于对加拿大征收关税的问题。以下是他的回答。

What I'd like to see Canada become our 51st state. We give them protection, military protection. We don't need them to build our cars. I'd rather see Detroit or South Carolina or any one of our Tennessee, any one of our states build the cars. They could do it very easily. We don't need them for the cars. We don't need them for lumber. We don't need them for anything. We don't need them for energy. We have more energy than they do. We don't need them for energy. So I say why are we doing this? Why are we willing to lose between $100 billion and $200 billion a year? We don't need them.

我希望看到加拿大成为我们的第51个州。我们为他们提供保护，军事保护。我们并不需要他们来制造汽车。我更希望看到底特律、南卡罗来纳州或田纳西州的任何一个州来制造汽车，他们可以轻松做到。我们不需要他们造车，也不需要他们的木材或任何其他东西。我们有比他们更多的能源，所以我们不需要他们提供能源。所以我想问，我们为什么要这样做？为什么我们愿意每年损失一千亿到两千亿美元？我们不需要他们。

As a state it's different. As a state it's much different. And there are no tariffs. So I'd love to see that. But some people say that would be a long shot. If people wanted to play the game right, it would be 100% certain that they'd become a state. But a lot of people don't like to play the game because they don't have a threshold of pain. And there would be some pain. But not a lot. The pain would be really there. So I pay special attention to the last 20 seconds of tha...

作为一个州，这很不同。作为一个州，这大不相同。而且没有关税。所以我很希望看到那样的情况。但有些人说，那只是一个不太可能实现的想法。如果人们按照正确的方式去做事情，那么百分之百可以成为一个州。但很多人不愿意那样做，因为他们无法忍受一些痛苦。确实会有一些痛苦，但不会太多。痛苦是确实存在的。所以我特别注意了最后20秒的内容...

...that because what that tells me, my sense as a Trump watcher is that this isn't over yet, that he is quite serious about his potential territorial acquisition here. Now on Friday there's a story in the Wall Street Journal where Trudeau now is telling his advisors, you know, I think this guy was just being mean. But now I think he's serious because maybe he wants Canada's natural resources. Now for those of you who don't know, Canada is actually a very vast country. Huge amounts of land. One of the largest countries in the entire world with a lot of natural resources that are difficult to develop because the government, at least...

因为根据我的观察，作为特朗普的观察者，我感觉这件事情还没结束。他对获取这片领土的意图是认真的。星期五，《华尔街日报》有篇报道提到，特鲁多现在告诉他的顾问们，他认为那个家伙之前可能只是很刻薄。但是现在他觉得事情是真的，因为可能特朗普想要加拿大的自然资源。对于那些不太了解的人来说，加拿大实际上是一个非常广袤的国家，拥有大量的土地。它是世界上面积最大的国家之一，拥有许多自然资源。不过，由于政府的原因，这些资源比较难以开发。

...the Trudeau government, has frowned upon natural resource extraction. So that is a possibility. I don't know. But Trump has been talking about things like Greenland and talking about making deals with Zelensky to acquire rare earths in Ukraine. So it seems like Trump is thinking a lot about natural resource acquisition. So we'll see. My sense is it's not over. Now with regard to Mexico, again, 30-day reprive. Now the problem with Mexico is not so much about resources or a territorial acquisition. Trump has never said he wanted to take over Mexico. But I think it has more to do with his vision for bringing manufacturing back to the US. Because a lot of the companies in China, for example, have moved their factories to Mexico. And so the manufacturing in Mexico and then because of the trade agreement, just ship it to the United States, tariff free. So that's going to be a big problem that has to be resolved.

特鲁多政府一直对自然资源开采持反对态度。所以这有可能是一个选择。我不太确定。但特朗普似乎对自然资源收购非常感兴趣，比如他谈论过格陵兰，还提到过与泽连斯基做交易以获取乌克兰的稀土。所以事情还没有结束，这是我的看法。至于墨西哥的话题，他们获得了30天的暂缓。墨西哥的问题与资源或领土扩张关系不大。特朗普从未表示想要接管墨西哥。我认为这更多与他想把制造业带回美国的愿景有关。因为很多在中国的公司已经把工厂搬到了墨西哥，所以在墨西哥生产，然后通过贸易协定免关税运到美国。这会成为需要解决的一个大问题。

And I'm not sure how he's going to go about doing that. Now what was quietly missed though is that the 10% tariffs on China did in fact go into effect. Now China, did we tally it a little bit? But the China watchers say that this was very much a half-hearted effort. And it seems like the Chinese are trying to avoid any further escalation. Now the new front in the tariff war happened on Friday when President Trump was having a press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Ishibao. Let's hear what he has to say. I mean, we're going to have tariffs, mostly reciprocal tariffs where we go with, and I'm going to be probably meeting on that Monday or Tuesday. Have an announcement, probably a news...

我不太确定他会如何处理这个问题。不过，有一点被悄悄忽视了，那就是对中国的10%关税确实已经生效。我们对中国是不是小试了一下？不过观察中国的专家表示，这次措施只是象征性地试探。似乎中国正试图避免进一步的摩擦。上周五，新的关税战争战场开启，当时特朗普总统正在与日本首相石井宝举行新闻发布会。让我们听听他怎么说。他提到，我们将实施关税，主要是互惠关税，我可能会在星期一或星期二就此事会面，并可能发表公告，可能会有一个新闻发布会。

Conference, but probably reciprocal tariffs where a country pays so much or charges us so much. And we do the same, so very reciprocal, because I think that's the only fair way to do it. That way nobody's hurt. They charge us, we charge them. It's the same thing. And I seem to be going in that line as opposed to a flat fee tariff. So it seems like Trump's new tariff plan now is reciprocal tariffs.

会议上提到，但可能会采取互惠关税的方式，即一个国家向我们收费多少，我们也向他们收费多少。我们同样做出回应，这是一种很公平的方法。我认为这是唯一公平的方式，这样就没有人会受到伤害。他们向我们收费，我们向他们收费，就是这么回事。而我似乎更倾向于这种方式，而不是统一的关税。所以看起来特朗普的新关税计划现在是互惠关税。

So the thinking is that for a lot of countries, the United States does not tariff them, but they tariff us. So for example, it's much more difficult for the US to sell cards into the European Union because of things like tariffs. And it's easier for the Europeans to sell cards into the US. So the new idea seems to be, you know, if you put a 10% tariff on us for these goods, we'll do the same to be reciprocal.

所以，目前的想法是，对许多国家来说，美国并没有对它们征收关税，但它们却对美国征收关税。比如说，美国向欧盟销售商品就很困难，因为有各种关税的存在。而欧洲国家向美国销售商品则要容易得多。因此，现在出现的新想法是，如果你对我们的商品征收10%的关税，我们也会对你的商品征收同样的关税，以实现对等。

Now I don't really know if that's going to happen next week because the timeline, of course, is a bit tricky for this. Now everything President Trump does is draws controversy and oftentimes legal challenges. So over the past week, we've had legal challenges to doge, for example. So they don't really want to do something and then have some, you know, judge from Hawaii or whatever, stop it.

现在我不太确定这是否会在下周发生，因为时间安排确实有些复杂。目前，特朗普总统做的每件事都会引发争议，而且常常面临法律挑战。比如，过去一周我们看到狗狗币就遇到法律挑战。所以他们不太想做一些事情，然后被某个法官阻止，比如来自夏威夷的法官。

So they want to do things in a way that they can defend it legally. So the tariffs for Canada, Mexico were under IEPA, under the guise of a national health emergency. Now in order to have proper economic tariffs, you actually need a little bit more paperwork. You need some investigation. And the thinking is that this wouldn't really be ready until April. So I'm not sure how they will get tariffs done next week, but I guess we'll find out. It seems though that the tariff war is moving on towards the European Union.

所以他们希望以合法可辩护的方式来处理这些事情。针对加拿大和墨西哥的关税是根据《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEPA)实施的，借口是国家卫生紧急情况。为了制定合适的经济关税，实际上需要更多的文件和调查。预计这些工作要到四月份才能准备好。所以我不确定他们下周会如何实施关税，但我们等着看吧。看起来关税战正在向欧盟方向发展。

Now the European Union has a scienceable goods trade surplus with the US around $300 billion. So Trump is complaining a lot about American cars, not being sold in Europe and so forth. And some people would say that it's because the Europeans don't like American cars and maybe American cars are too big for European streets. And that's all legitimate as well. But in any case, as Trump turns towards Europe, it seems like he really is going to put more tariffs on from what I hear.

目前，欧盟与美国的科技产品贸易顺差约为3000亿美元。因此，特朗普对美国汽车在欧洲销售不佳等问题抱怨很多。一些人认为这是因为欧洲人不喜欢美国汽车，也可能是美国汽车对欧洲街道来说太大了。这些都是合理的说法。不过，无论如何，从我了解到的情况来看，特朗普如果真要针对欧洲采取行动，似乎会加征更多的关税。

And on Friday, we also had a response from the European Union talking about willingness to lower tariffs on US cars. Now in the past, we've also heard people like Christine Lagarde say that one way we could satisfy the Americans is maybe to just buy more energy from them. So the European Union has been buying more net gas from the US, especially as they kind of try to turn away from Russia.

周五，我们也收到了来自欧盟的回应，他们表示愿意降低对美国汽车的关税。过去，我们也听到过像克里斯蒂娜·拉加德这样的人说，满足美国的一种方式可能是从他们那里购买更多的能源。因此，欧盟一直在从美国购买更多的天然气，特别是在他们试图减少对俄罗斯依赖的时候。

They would really have to buy an enormous amounts of natural gas to close that trade deficit. So it seems like that's still a work in progress. One thing about the European Union is that it's a little bit more difficult for them to act together because it is kind of a union of many different nations and you have to have a lot of agreement consensus. So it's a slow process. There is some indication that they would be willing to retaliate on big tech companies in the event of US tariffs. But again, this is all up in the air.

他们真的需要购买大量的天然气才能弥补那个贸易逆差。所以看起来这件事还在进行中。关于欧盟，有一点需要注意的是，由于它实际上是由多个不同国家组成的联盟，所以他们很难一起采取行动，需要达成很多共识。因此，这是一个缓慢的过程。有迹象表明，如果美国征收关税，他们可能会愿意对大型科技公司进行反击。但这也都不确定。

But again, this is only week three of the Trump administration. We have a few more years of this and I continue to believe that the trade war is going to get much worse before it gets better. So that's all for tariffs on this week. And next week, we'll figure out, we'll find out if the reciprocal tariffs really did happen. Okay. The next thing that I want to talk about is all the other random things that Trump administration did the past week.

但再次强调，这只是特朗普政府上任的第三周。我们还有好几年时间要应对这一情况，我仍然相信，贸易战在变好之前会变得更加激烈。所以这周关于关税问题就说到这里。下周，我们会了解对等关税是否真的实施了。好吧，接下来我想谈一下特朗普政府在过去一周里做的其他各种事情。

Now, interestingly, Trump put out an executive order to try to create a US sovereign wealth fund. Now, this is kind of a surprising thing and kind of a strange thing for the US to do. Now if you look across the world, the countries that have sovereign wealth funds all have something in common. For example, China, tremendous amounts of sovereign wealth. Why? Well, they have a trade surplus of about a trillion dollars a year. So that means every year they have about a trillion dollars worth of foreign currency coming into their country. They got to do something about it, right? Or you can look at Norway. So tremendous amounts of natural gas, a lot of money coming into the country. They have a lot of money. What are they going to do about it?

现在，有趣的是，特朗普颁布了一项行政命令，试图创建一个美国主权财富基金。这对美国来说是一个有点令人惊讶和奇怪的举动。看看全世界，有主权财富基金的国家都有一些共同点。例如，中国有大量的主权财富。为什么呢？因为他们每年有大约一万亿美元的贸易顺差。这意味着每年有大约一万亿美元的外币流入他们的国家，他们必须处理这些钱， 对吧？或者看看挪威，他们有大量的天然气资源，也有很多资金流入国家。他们有很多钱，他们将如何处理这些钱呢？

So what you see is that these countries take all this sovereign wealth, take all these money and they invest in, let's say, treasuries or stocks or, let's say, loans to countries in Africa and so forth. So the common thing is that countries that have sovereign wealth funds have a lot of income. They don't have tremendous fiscal deficits like the United States. And the United States in particular kind of doesn't really need a sovereign wealth fund since they have the dollar as a reserve currency. Like if you're China, for example, your currency is not the reserve currency. So you have to hold some hard currency like the dollars, not the case in the US. So it is a strange thing. And to me personally kind of worrying, when I was watching that press release, it seemed that press conference seemed like Besant was talking about the sovereign wealth fund is going to be used in Besant America. And then Secretary of Commerce, Ludic was mentioning as an example, say that if the United States buys from a vaccine manufacturer, maybe the US could get some warrants on that company's stock so that we can capture a bit of the upside of doing business with that company. Now that all sounds fine, but having a sovereign wealth fund is kind of having another slush fund. So today, maybe we are using it to invest in America. Maybe tomorrow we will be using it to buy a whole bunch of windmills and solar panels in Alaska or something like that. So having a sovereign wealth fund is kind of strange for the US, but we at the very least need to get the governance rights.

翻译成中文： 这些国家把他们的主权财富，也就是这些资金，投资到国债、股票或者向非洲国家提供贷款等领域。通常来说，拥有主权财富基金的国家都有很高的收入，他们不像美国那样有巨大的财政赤字。美国特别不同的是，他们似乎并不需要主权财富基金，因为美元是全球储备货币。比如说，如果你是中国，你的货币不是储备货币，所以必须持有一些像美元这样的硬通货，而美国则不需要。因此，这是一件奇怪的事情，对我个人而言，这有点令人担忧。在我观看新闻发布会时，似乎Besant在谈论主权财富基金将用于Besant America。而且商务部长Ludic提到一个例子，说如果美国从疫苗制造商那里购买疫苗，美国或许可以获得该公司股票的一些认股权，这样我们就可以分享与该公司合作的收益。这听起来不错，但拥有主权财富基金有点像拥有另一个小金库。或许今天我们用它来投资美国，明天我们可能用它来购买大量风车和阿拉斯加的太阳能板之类的。因此，拥有一个主权财富基金对美国来说有点奇怪，但至少我们需要得到正确的管理权。

Now another thing that was pretty interesting in the past week were comments from Secretary of Treasury Besant on interest rates. Let's listen to what he had to say. Whether the Fed is going to cut, not cut, what we are focused on is lowering rates. So we are less focused on the specific rate cuts and how do we get the whole curve down? I mentioned that the tenure, I believe, is the important price to focus on. Its mortgage is its long-term capital formation. So, and look, I think with the President's policies of energy dominance, deregulation and non-inflationary growth, I think that the tenure is going to naturally be a little naturally come down. And then, look, on top of it, what do we do get some big savings on the spending side from the Doge programs? Now, his dialogue clearly tells you that he is not interested in trying to bully the Fed to cut, but he's trying to get the entire interest rate curve down. And the way he's doing this, again, not to bully the Fed, I think he's, again, he is a miracle investor. So he knows that if you kind of force the Fed to cut interest rates, then I think the market could potentially freak out, think that we would have higher inflation and then you can have the tenure yield go higher. The tenure yield is obviously much more impactful to the economy and to the markets than the overnight rate, right? And mortgages, for example, are keyed off the tenure yield.

在过去的一周里，财政部长贝桑关于利率的评论也颇有趣。让我们来听听他的观点吧。无论美联储是否会降息，我们关注的重点是降低整体利率。因此，我们不重视具体的利率削减，而是关注如何让整个利率曲线下降。我提到过，我认为十年期国债是一个重要的价格指标，因为它关系到房贷和长期资本形成。此外，我认为随着总统的能源主导、放松管制及非通货膨胀性增长政策，十年期收益率会自然下降。再加上，我们还可以通过道奇计划在开支方面节省大量资金。显然，他并不打算强迫美联储降息，而是试图拉低整个利率曲线。他不是通过逼迫美联储。他是一个高明的投资者，知道如果强行要求美联储降息，市场可能会惊慌，认为会导致更高通胀，从而推动十年期收益率上升。相比隔夜利率，十年期收益率对经济和市场的影响更大，比如房贷利率就是以十年期收益率为基础的。

Now I was surprised by some of the commentary on this, but his commentary, I thought, was pretty straightforward and not particularly controversial. He wants to get the way that he wants to get the interest rate lower is by carrying out his plan, which is, of course, getting energy prices down, reducing regulation, again, reducing costs for businesses and just increasing growth. And that's all, I don't know, very conventional. So anyway, that just tells you that the administration is not going to bully the Fed. They're going to do other ways to relax to lower interest rates. And we already see their efforts to lower energy prices. And I think very soon we'll see their efforts to probably do something with the banking regulations that could help with the interest rates, which I could talk about, I think, in a future post.

现在，对于这件事的一些评论让我感到惊讶，但我认为他的评论其实很直接，也没有什么特别有争议的地方。他希望通过实施他的计划来降低利率，这当然包括降低能源价格、减少监管，再次降低企业成本并提高增长。这些都是非常传统的做法。所以，这就说明政府不打算向美联储施压，而是会通过其他方式来放松政策以降低利率。我们已经看到他们努力降低能源价格。我认为，很快我们会看到他们可能采取一些措施来放松银行监管，以帮助降低利率。我可能会在未来的文章中讨论这个话题。

Let's see, what else? Oh, again, we have to talk about Doge, of course. Now Doge has been kind of a wrecking ball this past two weeks, stirring up a lot of controversy. So as we all know, Elon Musk gained read only access to the Treasury payment system and has been trying to root out some fraud or at least waste. Now the US government runs a two trillion fiscal deficit. The growth spending, of course, is even higher. Now what that means when you have these trillion sub trillions of dollars flowing into the system, there's a lot of people who are receiving that money, a lot of people who benefit from this. And if you try to take away the piggy bank people who were benefiting from that, they're going to lose some money and they're going to be unhappy. So I would expect there to be lots of controversy and a lot of people very angry about what's happening. Now, one of his big moves the past week was, of course, shut down USAID. And one of the things we've learned is that USAID provides financing for a lot of NGOs and also a lot of the media as well. So if you have a newspaper that is saying angry things about Doge, I think that's not surprising because Doge basically took away some of their money. But from a broader view, though, it does seem Doge is being pretty effective in cutting government spending. Now, he does have that government employee buyout so far. It seemed as of this morning, 60,000 people took that offer. A judge has paused that so we will see what happens. But so far, I think it's been surprisingly successful. It's very hard to touch all these entrenched interests, but it seems like Elon is definitely making progress towards this.

我们来看看，还有什么要说的？哦，当然，我们又要谈到Doge。这两周，Doge像个破坏球，引发了许多争议。正如我们所知，Elon Musk获得了财政支付系统的只读访问权限，并一直试图根除一些欺诈行为或至少浪费。现在，美国政府运行着2万亿美元的财政赤字，而增长支出显然更高。当你在系统中有这些以万亿计的钱流动时，就会有很多人收到这些钱，很多人从中受益。如果你试图拿走那些受益者的“储蓄罐”，他们会损失一些钱，并且会感到不满。所以，我预计会有很多争议，人们对发生的事情会非常愤怒。 上周，他的一大举措当然是关闭了美国国际开发署（USAID）。我们了解到，USAID为许多非政府组织提供资金支持，也为许多媒体提供支持。所以，如果有报纸对Doge发表愤怒的言论，我觉得这并不令人意外，因为Doge基本上夺走了他们的一部分资金。但从更广泛的角度来看，Doge在削减政府开支方面似乎相当有效。如今，他有政府雇员收购计划，截至今早，已有6万人接受了这一提议。一位法官暂停了这一行动，我们将拭目以待。但到目前为止，我认为这取得了令人惊讶的成功。要触碰这么多既得利益确实非常困难，但Elon似乎在这方面确实取得了一些进展。

Now, I was listening to an episode of the odd lots a few months ago where a professor from Boston University who specializes in government waste was telling some pretty surprising stories. Now, obviously there is a tremendous amount of waste in the government. Now, the professor noted that, and this was surprising to me, 1% of the entire federal budget is spent on the dialysis program. And the reason why it's so expensive is because of this loophole. Now, if you are a dialysis patient and you can't get to the dialysis station, the government is very nice. They provide you with a paid ambulance. And so that's the way of just helping these people who are maybe too sick to move to get to a dialysis center. And the flat fee for that program is $250 for the ambulance. And that doesn't sound like a lot for an ambulance, but if you are a taxi driver, that sounds like a lot. So after the inception of this program, there were thousands of people all across the country who basically started ambulance programs where they would, you know, it could buy a used ambulance for $30,000, have a few people, and they would just field these cause and just collect $250 one way, one way and $250 back. And so in a sense, that's how this program basically with good intentions became just kind of the slush fund for all these fraudulent ambulance operators and ended up as big as 1% of the entire federal operating budget. So there is instances like this, again, everywhere.

几个月前，我在听一集《Odd Lots》节目时，一位专门研究政府浪费的波士顿大学教授分享了一些相当令人惊讶的故事。显然，政府中存在大量浪费问题。教授提到一件让我感到惊讶的事，就是整个联邦预算的1%被用于透析项目。该项目如此昂贵的原因在于一个漏洞。如果你是个透析患者，而无法自行前往透析中心，政府会很慷慨地为你提供免费的救护车服务。这样就能帮助那些病情严重无法行动的人去透析中心。这项服务的固定费用是每次250美元。虽然对于救护车来说这笔费用看似不多，但对于出租车司机来说却很多。因此，这个项目实施后，全国出现了成千上万的以此为生的救护车运营者。他们可能会花3万美元买一辆二手救护车，雇佣几个人，每趟收取250美元来回费用。结果，这个初衷良好的项目渐渐变成了这些欺诈性救护车运营者的资金来源，最终占据了整个联邦运营预算的1%。类似的情况在其他地方也时有发生。

So there is a tremendous amount of fat to cut. Obviously we're not going to go from a tutoring deficit to a balanced budget on Doge alone, but I think we can actually make a surprising difference. So far it's been very promising. I'm going to see how that goes. And of course that has implications on employment, on growth and on the term premier. So a lot of things happening there. Hopefully I think we can all agree that an more efficient government is in the public's interest and people who complain. I'm guessing that they're losing some money. Okay. The last thing we want to talk about, of course, is the job market report.

这段话大意是：因此，有大量的冗余需要削减。显然，我们不可能仅靠狗狗币就从教育辅助的资金缺口中达到收支平衡，但我认为我们实际上能带来意想不到的影响。目前的进展非常乐观。我会继续观察这个情况。当然，这会对就业、增长和行政任期产生影响。这里有很多事情在发生。希望我们都能同意，一个更高效率的政府符合公众利益，而抱怨的人，我猜他们可能在损失一些钱。好吧，我们当然要讨论的最后一件事是就业市场报告。

Now as usual, when you look at the job market report, we have to look into the details. So on the headline basis, job, job games were a little bit lower than expected, but in the details, it was unambiguously a very strong report. Now even though the headline jobs created was a little bit lower than expected, they were revisions upward that, well, that overall raised the amount of jobs on a moving average basis. Now looking at wage growth, surprisingly strong as well, much higher than expected.

现在，像往常一样，当我们查看就业市场报告时，我们需要深入了解细节。从整体上看，就业增长略低于预期，但细节上显示这是一个非常强劲的报告。即使整体新增就业人数略低于预期，但之前的数据进行了上调修正，这使得整体就业人数在移动平均值上有所增加。关于工资增长，出人意料地强劲，远高于预期。

Now to be clear, we have to be careful about the average hourly earnings because it doesn't take into account the compositional difference of employees. It's just a blunt average. So if you hired, for example, more doctors and lawyers in one month, that will bring the average higher. And of course the unemployment rate surprisingly, surprisingly declined to 4%. Now if you're looking at this from the Fed's perspective, well, Fed is cared about, cares about unemployment and price stability.

现在需要说明的是，我们必须谨慎对待平均时薪的数字，因为它没有考虑员工构成的差异。它只是一个简单的平均数。例如，如果某个月你雇佣了更多的医生和律师，平均值就会被拉高。当然，失业率出人意料地下降到了4%。从美联储的角度来看，美联储关注的是失业率和物价稳定。

The unemployment rate went lower. We don't have to worry about that. And from an inflation span point, wages much stronger than expected. So you've got to be worried about that as well. So the market took one look at this and the entire curve went higher and that is totally, totally the correct interpretation of this. But before panicking, I would know that this is one job report. The overall trend is overwhelmingly towards a cooling labor market. We see this in jolts, for example. We see this in the settled decline in average wages. And of course, going forward, I'm pretty sure we're going to have tremendous amounts of economic disruption from the ongoing trade war.

失业率下降了，我们不必为此担心。从通货膨胀的角度来看，工资比预期要高得多，所以也要对此保持警惕。因此，市场一看到这种情况，整个曲线就上升了，这完全是正确的解读。不过，在惊慌之前，我要提醒大家，这只是一个就业报告。总体趋势明显指向劳动力市场的降温。例如，我们在职位空缺率中看到这一点，我们也看到了平均工资的稳步下降。当然，展望未来，我相当确定正在进行的贸易战会导致巨大的经济动荡。

All right, so that's all I prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in. I'll talk to you guys next week.

好的，那就是我今天准备的全部内容。非常感谢大家的收听。我们下周再聊。