Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Lumis. First up, FSD12.4.2 is now rolling out to some early customers, not just employees. On that front, Elon said, sorry for the delay, this release had far fewer interventions, but suffered in driving smoothness. Part of the issue was too much training on interventions and not enough on normal driving. It's like a doctor training too much on patients in the ER first training on preventative care. Our next gen AI model after this has a lot of promise around a 5x increase in parameter count, which is very difficult to achieve without upgrading the vehicle inference computer. First of all, this is a reminder that Tesla is still learning how to train these end-to-end neural nets effectively on the fly. There will certainly be pockets of exponential progress, but I think we all need to expect some pockets of stagnation or sideways movement as well.
欢迎来到《电气化》,我是主持人迪伦·卢米斯。首先,FSD 12.4.2 现在开始向一些早期用户推送,不仅仅是员工。关于这点,埃隆表示,抱歉延误了,这次更新虽然减少了很多干预,但驾驶的平顺性有所下降。问题的一部分在于对干预情况的训练过多,而对正常驾驶的训练不足。这就像医生过多训练急诊室的病患治疗,而没有足够的预防护理训练。我们的下一代 AI 模型在参数数量上有望增加 5 倍,这在不升级车辆推理计算机的情况下是很难实现的。首先,这提醒我们,特斯拉仍在学习如何有效地即时训练这些端到端神经网络。我们肯定会看到一些指数级的进步,但我认为我们也需要准备迎接一些停滞或平稳发展的阶段。
I'm guessing here, but I think the next gen AI model Elon was referring to would be 12.5. The easiest way to think about parameters is what's actually responsible for taking the input data or in this case the video data and then actually transforming that into an output control, in this case driving the car. I'll share what CERN said on X because Elon did respond to that. A parameter is like a setting that the AI adjusts to learn from data and make decisions. Each parameter holds a bit of information that the AI uses to understand patterns and generate outputs. The more parameters an AI model has, the more detailed and nuanced its understanding and outputs can be. Think of parameters as dials on a control panel. Each one is tweaked during the AI's training to help it get better at predicting and creating new data that looks like the original training examples.
To which Elon said, yeah, so long as the information compression efficiency is held reasonably constant, a higher parameter count is a representation of how well it understands the nuances of reality. So more parameters theoretically would mean a more capable system. Here's more from CERN that Elon responded to CERN said on the information compression efficiency. This refers to how effectively an AI model can compress or simplify the information it learns without losing important details. It's about how the model manages to represent complex data with fewer parameters while still performing well. If that efficiency is maintained, it means the model is not just getting bigger with more parameters, but it's also getting better at handling data without unnecessary complexity. So if you have that compression efficiency, then that increase in parameters actually translates into a deeper understanding of the data's complexities.
Another way of saying it, more parameters does not automatically make the model better unless it can effectively use those extra parameters to capture more detailed insights about the data it's learning from without getting confused by noise. As you may imagine, generally speaking, more parameters is going to require more computational resources. At this point, we don't know if hardware three is going to be capable enough for this next gen AI model, CERN said Tesla's developing hardware for an AI five for a reason. And to that entire post, Elon said exactly. To be clear, this next gen AI model could be more of a version 13 or something subsequent to that. It doesn't have to be 12.5. But with all of these FSD updates from Elon, we have to remember the goal posts are almost always moving in May, Elon said 12.5 would be out in late June and it's now July.
And as we know 12.4.2 has not yet made it to a wide release, which obviously complicates finding out if 12.4 is going to be a five to 10x improvement in MPI. My point, don't get over your skis when you see updates like this from Elon, a five X increase in parameters or a 10x increase in performance when it comes to AI five. At the end of the day, all of that technical performance means nothing. The only thing that really matters is progress when it comes to the customer experience of FSD. Unfortunately, I do think this now means the following question is valid. Again, that's will all cars with hardware 3 actually be able to achieve Robotaxi level FSD. For the past few months, that answer was yes, but now after this update, that seems to be in doubt.
One more reminder, if you missed it, free FSD transfers are live for North America until August 31st. On 12.4.2, dirty Tesla said the first drive went really well. Crazy lane changes seemed to be fixed. Only one intervention, which was at a blinking yellow light. Holmar said disappointing first drive with .4.2 in the day time, one critical intervention and one missed turn onto the highway, a regression from 12.4.1. Billy said .2 was much more human-like, no lane dancing and handled stop signs and intersection turns much more smoothly. Amazing evolution from .1. Elon is now following Travis Kalanick, founder and former CEO of Uber.
Travis did step down from the Uber board years ago and he has sold most of his shares. He also hasn't posted on X since 2019. You guys know, for months, I've been saying Tesla and Uber are likely to work together even more than they are right now, but Travis is barely involved with Uber as far as we know, so I'm not sure that really confirms that story. Tesla has applied for a new patent that would effectively auto-sanitize something like a RoboTaxi. In the background, they say shared spaces have a disadvantage of facilitating indirect transmission of communicable diseases through contaminated air or surfaces, and that manually wiping those surfaces can be time-consuming.
Further into the patent, it says the sanitation system may cause a heating, ventilation and air conditioning system of a vehicle to perform operations for sanitizing the vehicle, including accumulating moisture, raising vehicle cabin temperature and directing heated air towards particular touch surfaces. It also said these autonomous vehicles could park near a cleaning robot for sanitizing the vehicles. As always, nothing is ever guaranteed with a patent application, but perhaps we learn a bit more about it on August 8th. And just to touch on it, there's some speculation out there that the Supreme Court's decision to effectively reverse the Chevron doctrine may have an impact on how NHTSA handles things with Tesla and FSD.
Back in 1984 in this Chevron decision, the Supreme Court basically decided that the federal agencies were the experts in their fields and that the court should just defer to their interpretation of different laws. So basically, for the past 40 years, these federal agencies have been interpreting certain laws nearly however they want, and then the courts just accept it. So it may be true that NHTSA now has a bit less power when it comes to citing safety concerns around Tesla's FSD. But Tesla has already been working closely with NHTSA for years, they have a good relationship as far as we know. But it seems likely that in the future if Tesla ever wanted to challenge a ruling that NHTSA has made, ultimately now the courts will have that authority and they will not be deferring to NHTSA.
Tesla is set to release its quarter to delivery numbers tomorrow morning. Tuesday, the company compiled consensus is 437,812. And the number for 2024 sits at 1.79 million. Troy Tess likes estimate for quarter two is 423,000. The whisper number seems to be 420,000 so anything above that and the market may receive it well. Brad Sloane got some cool shots of the Gigatex's super computer build out so here you go. Utah Senator Mike Lee said we're being scammed by climate alarmists but even worse we're undermining our own national security. To which Elon said the truth is somewhere in the middle. Climate change risk is overstated in the near term but probably accurate in the long term. All that matters is how many billions of tons of carbon are transported from deep underground into the atmosphere and oceans, aka the surface cycle.
What people do on the surface is essentially irrelevant, leave the farmers alone. Tesla has officially filed its opening brief in support of their motion to revise the post trial opinion of Judge McCormick. Their argument, the courts post trial opinion in this case is not final until an outstanding related application for an award of attorneys fees has been decided. The court's opinion is subject to revision at any time before the entry of judgment upon showing of good cause including changed factual circumstances. In this case, the shareholder vote after those shareholders were fully informed.
Contact Energy has teamed up with Tesla in Glenbrook which is in New Zealand for a new Megapack project which is starting at 100 megawatts but has optionality for up to 130. The battery at Glenbrook is expected online in the first quarter of 2026. Jim Farley gave nearly an hour long interview just talking about electric vehicles with NBC News and here are a few of the highlights. As you've said that EVs should not be subsidized and automakers should push to profitably produce EVs. What do you see as a reasonable timeline for that? Five years to the next generation of vehicles I think you're going to see but you have to make a radical change as an OEM to get to a profitable EV. The first thing we have to do is really put all of our capital towards smaller more affordable EVs. We need to really redo our cycle plan to reflect what we've learned, smaller vehicles and commercial.
The commercial electrification journey is going super fast. Much faster than we thought. We have eight cameras on the average Ford and in China we're not allowed to drive to park a Ford next to a government building because of all those cameras. I don't want to get into politics of what's going to happen but clearly there'll be policy shifts. We thought through a lot of those most of them I would say and I think many of them will have big impacts on our journey to lower CO2 and we learn that if you just take your internal combustion engineers supply chain and manufacturing people and you ask them to make an EV it's not going to be a great EV. We created the skunk works two years ago with Alan Clark who was a chief engineer of the Model Y, Model 3, came from Tesla, left Tesla to go to Ford and my badge doesn't work there.
It's totally separate from Ford and they've had a completely different approach and it looks like you know they're going to be successful. We're going to bet the company on them. It's a very American thing. So when do you think we'll see some of see what a vehicle out of there looks like and what kind of price point are you in? It's between half years and we're shooting for a $30,000 car and to be profitable and we think the main competitors will be the new Model Tesla 2. We think Tesla will come out with an affordable vehicle and the Chinese players from BYD and bidirectional charging I believe should be required for all electric vehicles.
这完全独立于福特,他们采用了完全不同的方式,看起来很可能会取得成功。我们准备全力押注他们。这是非常美国式的做法。那么,你觉得我们什么时候能看到他们的车辆,以及价格会是多少?大概需要半年时间,我们的目标是推出一款售价约3万美元的车并实现盈利。我们的主要竞争对手将是新的特斯拉 Model 2。我们认为特斯拉会推出一款更加实惠的车型,而来自比亚迪等中国公司的产品也会成为竞争者。我认为所有电动汽车都应该具备双向充电功能。
Why would you buy an electric vehicle and not be able to export the power that seems selfish frankly and so with with better sensors, better AI processing, better models we think in a couple years we should be able to offer the industry, highway, autonomy. Tesla is, well first of all I think we'll all be very thankful that this journey was started by his vision and he proved that we can make electric cars profitably. That's really amazing. You know he was incredibly gracious to allow Ford to join the supercharger networks. For our customers to have access to the Tesla supercharger networks he didn't have to do that but he did it because he was a mission driven person and so I think we'll always be grateful for that cooperation.
Look we have a different bet as a company than Elon's bet. Our bet from learning from this first generation is that we will compete with him at the low end but we won't make commodity products. I believe Ford's at its best when it makes work vehicles or passion vehicles like Bronco Mustang, the F-150s will be competitors but he's not in the commercial space and we dominate our second place competitor GM is in half as big as us. I don't think he'll go into that business but when you get in a Ford it won't feel like a Tesla. It'll it'll feel differently.
The head of Mercedes autonomous program had a subtle jab toward Elon and Tesla. He said we're concerned about others let's say promising too much that's not the way we approach things. The problem is if things are over promised or do underperform even if it's seldom the entire trust in autonomous driving itself loses confidence and that's a bad thing. To that I would just say it's important to distinguish between predictions and promises. This weekend Shanghai Tesla is set to show off the Cybertruck and Optimus Gen 2 at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference which could serve as a bit of a brand boost for Tesla in China. There were a lot of folks reacting to a post from Sawyer sharing a Tesla post from Weibo that Tesla sales in China hit a new high in June. What exactly they meant by that though is somewhat irrelevant because we've been tracking their sales data and even including June it's still roughly flat if not down year over year.
梅赛德斯自动驾驶项目负责人对埃隆·马斯克和特斯拉有所批评。他表示,我们担心其他公司可能过度承诺,这不是我们的做事方式。问题在于,如果承诺过高或表现不佳,即使只是偶尔发生,整个自动驾驶技术的信任度都会受到打击,这是一件坏事。对此,我只想说,区分预测和承诺非常重要。本周末,上海特斯拉将在世界人工智能大会上展示Cybertruck和Optimus Gen 2,这可能会对特斯拉在中国的品牌形象有所提升。许多人对Sawyer分享的一条来自微博的特斯拉帖子反应热烈,该帖子称特斯拉在中国的销售在六月创下新高。然而,他们具体所指的内容并不是特别重要,因为我们一直在跟踪他们的销售数据,包括六月在内,同比来看销售情况仍然基本持平,甚至有所下降。
A lot of people give Tesla a hard time for missing some battery day predictions but how about a company like Northvolt that recently lost that multi-billion dollar deal with BMW? Well Northvolt's company projections for 2023 for sell output was 16 gigawatt hours but their actual production turned out to be 80 megawatt hours roughly 5% of their projection. I'm sure you're sick of me saying it but spooling up new battery production is very difficult. Cybertruck Foundation series invites are still going out but look what they're saying now. Due to continued high demand we expect to deliver only the Foundation series through late 2024. After Investor Day we thought the Foundation series may be wrapping up here in a few weeks but it seems like that's no longer the case.
On Facebook the Greenfield Police Department in California said we're excited to announce several Tesla vehicles will soon join our fleet as part of our commitment to going green. In that post they shared some pictures of the Cybertruck outfitted for patrol departments so maybe adding a Cybertruck in the future as well. They want electric planes. What happens if the sun is shining while you're up in the air? Well sir those you know they I told you there'd be problems sir. Now they want electric everything everything. They want electric boats the problem the boats don't float because the battery is so heavy it sinks the boat they say we don't care we want them anyway. Seriously though was that a joke? I think someone needs to tell Trump about the Yarra-Bercalind one of the world's first fully electric cargo ships with a roughly 7 megawatt hour battery that has yet to sink.
A PSA for Tesla owners there was a reddit post saying my spouse was recently in a high speed accident. After the car was towed to the yard it was difficult to get their belongings from the trunk and the glove box. So it may be wise to bookmark and read this page from Tesla it's the first responders information you may also want to share it with your local fire department as there are many different emergency response guides for different products. An example on the Model Y if you open the tow i on the front of the vehicle there are two different wires to which you can connect an external power source. So in the event you have no power doing this will allow you to access the frunk. Elon said that grok 2 is set to come out in august and then grok 3 and a year after training on 100,000 h100s should be really something special. Tesla stock closed the day at $209.86 up 6.05% while the Nasdaq was up 0.83%. It was a major volume day for Tesla stock trading about 60 million shares above the average volume the past 30 days.