Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis, quick shout out to my newest patron, Henry L. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. Real quick from yesterday's video, the stock market was indeed closed and I totally forgot so apologies for that. The CEO of X-Pang has said I'm visiting the US for a longer period of time this time and dropping by to test the latest version of FSD and Waymo. He said he has Tesla's 12.3.6 but he was asking anybody if they have 12.4.1, you can lend it to me. Thanks. He also asked his social media followers what they would like to see in a comparison between FSD and X-Pang's version of it, XNGP. AKA, X-Pang Navigation Guided Pilot.
欢迎来到 Electrified,我是你的主持人 Dylan Loomis,先感谢一下我最新的赞助者 Henry L。感谢你选择支持这个频道。昨天的视频里,我说错了,因为股市确实是休市的,我完全忘记了,为此向大家道歉。小鹏汽车的 CEO 最近表示这次会在美国停留更长的时间,顺便测试最新版本的 FSD(完全自动驾驶)和 Waymo。他说他有特斯拉的 12.3.6 版,但是他在问有没有人能借给他 12.4.1 版的。谢谢。此外,他还询问了社交媒体上的粉丝,希望他们说说在比较 FSD 和小鹏的版本 XNGP(即小鹏导航辅助驾驶)时,他们想看到什么。
On Waymo, he said he welcomes Tesla's FSD to China and that Tesla has great autonomous driving technology and brand. Perhaps most importantly though, late post has said that Tesla's V12 has of course displayed good results making the end-to-end model and emerging industry consensus and more car companies in China are starting to experiment with that route. So picking up some of the clues that Tesla has been leaving, it'll be interesting to see over the next two years what companies like Neo and X-Pang can come up with going the end-to-end route.
Replying to that news story, Elon said the Chinese automakers are by far the most competitive. We just can't forget that a majority of Chinese EV makers still are not profitable so long term they're going to have to figure that out at some point. Ordinarily, I would not take time to cover Tesla stock price targets but in this case, we actually get to start seeing how they're thinking about Tesla and autonomy. RBC dropped from 293 down to $227 saying we lower our Tesla robot taxi value and now allocate a bigger revenue share to service providers like Uber and Lyft. RBC lowered their price per mile assumption from 96 cents down to 81 cents, reflecting the economics of fleet operations in a 15% IRR. They also implemented a new revenue sharing model allocating 25% to service providers, 10% to software providers, 15% to OEMs like Tesla for vehicle leasing and 35% to fleet operators to cover expenses and maintain a 15% IRR.
Before, RBC was looking at two scenarios, Tesla owning the entire robot taxi operation and then fleet operators using Tesla software with another manufacturer's vehicle. They added two new scenarios including service providers using either Tesla's app or another company's app. They said Tesla would capture 100% of revenue if it was fully self-owned but only 10% if another manufacturer's vehicle and a service provider's app were used. But here's where this starts to fall apart. They said when robot taxis reach mainstream global usage which they're predicting around 2040, there will likely be multiple software providers, fleet operators and OEMs making purpose-built vehicles.
You're also allocating a bigger revenue share to service providers like Uber and Lyft. Why? Yeah, so there's like three parts of the ecosystem here with with Robotax. You have the software, you have the vehicle and then you have the app. I think there's going to be a lot of software providers. I think Tesla will be a big player in this but there are a lot of folks making software for autonomy. The vehicle, lots of car companies are going to make the vehicle but the app. That's one where our analyst, Brad Erickson on the internet team talks about how that's very sticky. It's a moat. Just look at how you use your apps today. How many apps are you going to have on your phone to order a car? I have one.
That's really I think where a lot of the power lies and that's something that I've raised and they collect right now for every Uber affair. I think you take I think 25% of it goes to the app, goes to Uber, right? Not the driver. That's a big lion's share for that stickiness. That's why we changed our view on that and we think actually that the app is going to have a lot of power. Tesla is going to make their own app for sure but we do think some of these other app makers who already own customers are going to have a lot of power as well. You heard what he said. There are a lot of players making software for autonomy but what is he actually talking about because he did distinguish that from the actual app. So to me it seems like he was talking about the software or the neural nets that would actually allow an autonomous vehicle as if they're all just the same and everybody's just going to figure it out. Now given that they were modeling out to 2040 okay sure maybe that's the case but how about the next five years?
For me it's just very hard to get on board with any analysis that says Uber and Lyft are actually going to get a bigger revenue share. When you take the driver or the supervisor out of the equation I don't understand how any of these other companies will be able to compete on cost. We know the cyber truck charging curve software update improvements are supposed to come sometime in the next few weeks and they're saying it should be a 30% improvement to the current charge rates. Specifically the ability to add 154 miles in 15 minutes. I remember a few years back when I was watching Matt Ferrell's undecided regularly. I was just starting electrified and he used to talk about Tesla a fair amount. Honestly at the time I didn't really know much about a VPN like Surfshark but I knew I wanted to support Matt and it was super affordable with a 30 day money back guarantee so I figured I didn't have anything to lose.
Here we are almost four years later and I'm still happily using Surfshark and they're the sponsor of this video. NDS even Elon has mentioned how easy using a VPN actually is and I can confirm. A VPN encrypts all of your online activity making it private and not even Surfshark keeps logs of your online data. There are a few reasons but one of the main reasons I use Surfshark is to limit the data that my internet service provider actually has on my family. They already know our names, our address, our phone number and we're not doing anything squirrely online but even just our whereabouts if all of that information was ever compromised well that's certainly not good.
Surfshark is not just for mobile phones when traveling or a laptop when you're at a coffee shop or a friend's house but it's also for all of your home devices as well. Surfshark allows one account for an unlimited number of devices. So if you'd like to support the channel and more importantly take your privacy back for you and your family you can get an additional four months free using my code electrified at surfshark dot deals slash electrified linked below. And just real quick I've seen some confusion out there when it comes to giga Nevada and the expansion 4680s and megapacks up I want to just clear all of this up.
January of last year Tesla announced its new plans for a $3.6 billion expansion to giga Nevada that was going to look like this. At the time they said part of the expansion would be a 100 gigawatt hour 4680 cell factory with the capacity to produce enough batteries for 1.5 million light duty vehicles every year. The second part of the expansion a high volume semi factory but Tesla has since changed its plans at least when it comes to the semi factory expansion. This screen grab shows the current setup of giga Nevada with the blue squares being Panasonic's part and then the red squares being Tesla's part and then the yellow areas were the original planned expansion. But as we've seen from the Heinrich Zane flyovers at least part of this expansion is going to be completely detached from the existing building.
So yes at least when it comes to the volume semi factory and these original plans from January of last year that part has been changed we don't know for sure if they're changing anything with the 100 gigawatt hours of 4680s. And on that front I'm seeing people out there saying Tesla's using 4680s in the megapack right now I do not believe that's the case. As far as we know all of Tesla's 4680 production is high nickel chemistries they are not making any 4680s with LFP chemistries yet. So Tesla is still importing LFP prismatic cells from CATO. I thought it was important to note after yesterday's video talking about this 100 gigawatt hour announcement from Tesla that it could be in flux to some degree because these expansion plans again have changed for the semi.
So based on Elon's recent comments about 4680s I think it's reasonable to expect a lower number than 100 gigawatt hours at least for the next few years. And for now all 4680 production is going into the Cybertruck. I believe at this point Tesla would still want to use 4680s in the Tesla semi but they may have to hit some more cost down targets before being able to commit to that. If Tesla can scale the semi up to 50,000 units per year times let's just call it 900 kilowatt hours in each pack that's about 45 gigawatt hours per year just for the Tesla semi at volume. For a frame of reference right now in Austin Tesla's 4680 production is hovering at an annual run rate of between 6 and 8 gigawatt hours per year.
As we've seen that did not happen overnight as Tesla started making 4680s in Austin toward the end of 2022. In theory the next iteration of this 4680 factory in Nevada could go faster but time will tell. The top three Google search result listings for Tesla news today, three articles all talking about an Arizona woman and a baby trapped in a Tesla because the battery had died. I'm sharing this because in the news segment they interviewed Tesla owners and none of them knew about Tesla's manual door release. I can't have even one viewer of electrified be in that camp so if you own a Tesla check the owners manual and your version to find your manual release. And here's the diagram for the rear doors in the Model Y, it's our duty to be educated on our vehicles.
Martin Vieja the former head of IR at Tesla said still today even in the US when I tell people the Model Y is the best selling car in the world I get up there's no way that can be true look every time. What do you reckon the number one selling car was in the world last year? Toyota. Close what would you say if I told you it was a Tesla? I wouldn't believe it. 1.2 million units the Model Y sold last year. Second place was a Toyota RAV4 and this year the Tesla sales are down. There's lots of stock on has been delivered so I was sitting there waiting to be sold. Would you ever consider owning a Tesla yourself? No, no because the jury is still out on what happens with the battery at the end of the life you know and they're too expensive at the moment maybe another five years or ten years. Yeah what would you say if I told you it was a Tesla? It was a what? A Tesla. Never heard of an electric car.
Martin Vieja,前特斯拉投资关系部负责人,说即使在今天的美国,当他告诉人们Model Y是世界上最畅销的汽车时,人们总是会惊讶地表示不相信。他说:"你猜去年全球销量第一的车是什么?"有人说:"是丰田吧。"Martin回答道:"接近了。如果我告诉你是特斯拉,你会怎么说?"那人说:"我不会相信。"Martin解释道:"去年Model Y卖了120万辆。第二名是丰田RAV4。今年特斯拉的销量有所下降,有很多库存已经交付但还没有售出。你会考虑自己买一辆特斯拉吗?"那人回答道:"不会,因为电池使用寿命结束后会如何还是未知数,而且目前价格太贵了,也许再过五年或十年吧。"Martin又问:"那如果我告诉你是特斯拉呢?"那人回复道:"是啥?特斯拉。我从没听说过电动车。"
Oh it was a great video idea from Ryan on X and then Martin also said for what it's worth personally I've always been pro advertising around 1% of revenue spent on ads digital and TV would I think be margin-accretive and mission-accretive. Tesla did $97 billion in revenue in 2023 so 1% of that would have been roughly $1 billion a year on advertising. I want to read the end of this new note from Wedbush and Dan Ives. It's all about the pace of data center AI driven spending as the only game in town for GPUs to run generative AI applications and they all go through Nvidia. Nvidia and Microsoft are the first derivatives of the AI revolution with the second third and fourth derivatives of AI now starting to form in the market which speaks to their 2024 and 2025 tech bull thesis playing out.
哦,这是Ryan在X上的一个很棒的视频创意,然后Martin也表示,就我个人而言,我一直支持将收入的约1%用于广告支出,数字广告和电视广告,我认为这将对利润和使命都有提升作用。特斯拉在2023年的收入是970亿美元,所以1%的广告支出大约是每年10亿美元。我想读一下Wedbush 和 Dan Ives最新报告的结尾部分。这部分内容主要讲数据中心在AI驱动支出的节奏,作为唯一能运行生成式AI应用的GPU,所有这一切都离不开英伟达。英伟达和微软是AI革命的首要受益者,而AI的第二、第三和第四层受益者也开始在市场上形成,这预示着他们对2024年和2025年科技牛市的预测将会实现。
Today Elon quote posted a picture of Tesla's GPU cooler fans in Texas that we shared yesterday saying we are nothing without our fans. Elon then said sizing for 130 megawatts of power in cooling this year but will increase to over 500 megawatts over the next 18 months or so. Aiming for about half Tesla AI hardware, half Nvidia and other. Play to win or don't play at all. This brings up a point I think not enough people talk about Tesla is spending huge amounts of money on compute and everything that goes with it from cooling to power and the whole 9. Of course I think most of us are pretty confident in the long run it'll be more than worth it but there's going to be a transition period where the spend is way up we're talking billions of dollars per year and for now what we're getting back is actually just an incremental march of the 9s in increasing FSD safety.
So at least for a time the CapEx outlays are going to greatly exceed the financial return for Tesla but it's also true that part of this major CapEx outlays specifically Tesla's hardware like hardware 4 and AI 5 will also be going into Optimus and Elon did clarify specifically for the half of this supercomputer in Austin that will use Tesla AI hardware that's going to be mostly and then some dojo. Then Elon said hardware 5 or AI 5 is going to be the second half of next year the AI 5 computer has 10x the capability of hardware 4 and Tesla makes the whole software stack. Given the importance of all of this to Tesla's future valuation I think it's good to recommit to memory what Elon said at investor day. We have hardware 4 run hardware 3 in emulation so we'll continue to make significant progress on hardware 3 but later this year we'll actually buy for Kate continue working on hardware 3 training on hardware 3 but then do separate training on hardware 4.
The expansion at Gigatexis will be dedicated hardware 4 video and inference hardware 4 has cameras that have about 4 or 5 times better resolution and depending on how you count hardware 4 it's about anywhere from 3 to 8 times better than hardware 3 but everything you're seeing thus far is just hardware 3 and we still have a long way to go before we reach the limits of hardware 3. So hardware 3 I think will still do amazing things but hardware 4 I think will probably do about 5 times better. Then hardware 5 which comes out toward the end of next year is 10 times more capable than hardware 4 but given that all of the progress we're seeing with FSD and Optimus is using hardware 3 AI 5 is actually going to be 50 times better than what we're seeing in use today. That's because Elon said hardware 4 would be 5 times better and AI 5 would be 10 times better than that. On X mark said every March of the nines will approximately 10 X the required compute to which Elon said not as high as that but still very high the March of the nines of reliability requires massive data and compute and again based on what we've seen of version 12 I think many of us are confident about the future but we're still yet to see how the improvements and the rate of improvement actually go. That's because as I've said before Tesla no longer has the ability to just write a line of code for a specific problem. So don't misunderstand me I'm not second guessing at all Tesla's strategy here I'm just saying I think we at least have to acknowledge the level of risk that this massive spend on data and compute actually entails. But again it's also true that this hardware and compute spend will directly propel Optimus development as well.
A local news station in Alabama ran a segment on some new fast chargers going up in the state. All we can see is that it's from Blink and this gentleman just mentioned Hyundai but during this entire segment they said nothing about the connection type or the speeds nothing about the site itself. As I've said before I'm actually quite excited to see what Iana does in this new 7 auto maker partnership. On that front we still don't know which hardware Iana is actually going to use but it's apparent that Hyundai and Blink are indeed in partnership. I also found this charger out there that actually has the Hyundai brand right on it but it does say powered by Blink. We did just learn though that EV charging hardware provider ChemPower just set up its headquarters in Durham, North Carolina. Which as we recently talked about is also where Iana has decided to set up its headquarters and not far away in Charlotte North Carolina is Al Petronic with their HQ. If you haven't been paying attention right now the Carolinas are booming for both EV production and EV charging hardware. Outside of the supercharger network it really feels like Iana is going to be the United States best shot at significantly improving the public charging infrastructure. Which as we know is one of the most common complaints and reasons given why people are hesitant to buy an EV.
A better route planner announced on X they've teamed up with Rivian to bring their charger reliability scores to all of their users. Using data from Rivians connected fleet will route you to the most reliable fast chargers for stress free long drives. You may remember though last summer Rivian acquired a better route planner so this integration shouldn't be a surprise. When it comes to Starlink Mini it turns out for now they're only going to release a limited number of these products and it's actually going to cost $599. Elon did imply a few days ago it could be as low as $250 but for now they're keeping it high. With the aspiration to reduce the price tag Starlink's VP of engineering said their ramping production on the mini and that it'll be available in international markets soon. But for now Starlink Mini is still going to be in bite only. Tesla stock closed the day at $181.57 down 1.78% while the Nasdaq was down 0.79%. It was a lower volume day trading about 17 million shares below the average volume the past 30 days. Don't forget take Elon's advice and check out Surfshark linked below to take advantage of those free months. Hope you guys have a wonderful day please like the video if you did you can find me on X linked below and a huge thank you to all of my patreon supporters. you.