Charles Payne Show June 11, 2024

the uh. c i o rather joseph long job there will be no rate cut tomorrow but the messaging we know it's going to be so so critical uh. with respect to uh. you know the economic projections now last time out of course the fed looking you know for the quibble of the three rate cuts obviously they're gonna have to go lower could they actually go to zero well as y'all's thanks for having me now i don't think there's any chance of going to zero in fact i think the air of low interest is over now if you look at what the market is pricing is saying that the next rate cut psycho it's only go to as low as three point eight percent so i think it's big fiscal spending uh. it is just really changing the world now what's going to happen i think is that as you mentioned uh. chirpah was probably going to have to signal something different than the last time last time he guided towards three cuts but you know since then inflation data has been a little bit stickier than the fed would like and so i'm thinking of probably guide towards two cuts but keep in mind though the fed is going to have to be more careful about its other mandate now over the past two years we've had unemployment very low inflation very high but today though the cases really different now inflation it's still too high it's above the fed's target but it's two point seven percent it's a little bit higher and at the same time you have unemployment rate rising most recently at four percent so the fed is going to have to balance their two mandates now they're going to have to be more devilish going forward which one is more important though right now because it is felt in the last q and a session the last of the fomcy meetings j-pow's gone out of his way to talk about a shock to the labor force

翻译： 呃。。。首席信息官约瑟夫，你的工作很长久。明天不会有降息，但我们知道，传递的信息将会非常关键。关于经济预期，上次美联储预测了三次降息，他们显然得调低预测。那么，他们可能直接降到零吗？ 感谢邀请。我认为降到零是不可能的。事实上，我认为低利率时代已经结束。如果你看看市场的预测，它们显示下一轮降息周期最低也只能降到3.8%。大规模财政支出真的在改变世界。 正如你提到的，鲍威尔可能不得不发出与上次不同的信号。上次他引导我们预期三次降息，但自那以后，通胀数据比美联储预期的更为顽固。因此，我认为他可能会引导我们预期两次降息。 但请记住，美联储将不得不更加谨慎地平衡它的另一个任务。在过去两年里，我们经历了非常低的失业率和非常高的通胀率。但今天的情况却不一样。虽然通胀率仍然高于美联储的目标，但为2.7%，稍微高了一些。同时，失业率也在上升，最近已达到4%。 美联储将不得不在它的两个任务之间找到平衡。他们需要在今后的政策中更为谨慎，平衡哪个任务更为重要。这在上次的新闻发布会和联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议中已经有所体现，鲍威尔特别强调了对劳动力市场的冲击。

yeah well the labor for there's a lot of interesting things happening labor force you got to miss a month of migration for example mike s just looking at the fomcy's composition is there going to value employment more now when i look at the fomcy's composition i noticed that president biden made a whole lot of new appointments now the new people he appointed they don't usually don't have a very much of a background in macro but they have a strong background in labor economics and so that tells me that the fed is changing towards more global labor and as you mentioned as senator warren and many other people in the legislature have been setting letters paul kind of emphasizing this implement mandate now to be clear senator warren has been calling for red cuts since 2022 when inflation was eight percent right right i think she does have a she doesn't have a good point here uh. in that the labor market is softening and there are a lot of things that are causing this inflation that that's just not within the fed's control for example i'd say like a you know trillion dollar deficit forever probably is beyond the fed's control and causing upper pressure inflation now that's something that's squarely within uh senator warren and her colleagues so uh by the way i love the point you made with the labor economists i've always told people it's been my experience that ninety nine percent of them are very progressive so that's not a surprise i got less than thirty seconds ago i wanted to point out to the audience we've come back here in the stock market because it is treasury auction it was a very good option it went off the near near where do you want it to go off on yields uh the dealers had to take less direct bitters were strong in the record okay maybe a little less than average but this was a pretty strong auction on an important day it's saved the market from going down i'd before i go 30 seconds what is the Achilles heel uh then that you're concerned about for our economy so i think the market is not pricing enough geopolitical risk now it's really hard to get good news about this because you know the first casualty of war is truth but from what i read it seems like there's some escalation on the war front in ukraine and looking at the european elections there's going to be a lot more political uncertainty in europe as well now when we have a lot of geopolitical uncertainty that curates a lot of hesitation for businesses to expand and that filters down into the economy so i think this geopolitical uh storm could be brewing and it could be bigger than the market anticipates i'm so glad you brought that up and that you're paying attention to some heavy developments happening that uh really not making the impact news wise that it should hear joseph thank you very much appreciate it thanks so much so you know we're hearing from uh more.

好的，我把你的段落翻译成中文，并使其更容易读懂： 是的，关于劳力市场有很多有趣的事情在发生。就比如说你得错过一个月的移民。麦克斯在看联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的组成时，是否会更加重视就业呢？当我观察联邦公开市场委员会的组成时，我注意到拜登总统进行了很多新的任命。这些新任命的人通常在宏观经济学上的背景并不多，但他们在劳工经济学方面有很强的背景。这告诉我，美联储正在更关注全球劳动力市场。正如你提到的，沃伦参议员和许多其他立法者们一直在写信，强调这个就业任务。需要明确的是，自2022年通货膨胀率达到8%以来，沃伦参议员一直呼吁降低利率。 对，她在某些方面确实有好的观点。劳动力市场在软化，而且有许多导致通货膨胀的因素并不在美联储的控制范围内。比如，我会说像一万亿美元的长期赤字，这可能超出了美联储的控制范围，造成了通胀压力。而这是沃伦参议员和她的同事们应该关心的问题。顺便说一下，我喜欢你提到的劳工经济学家。根据我的经验，99%的人都是非常进步的，所以这并不让人惊讶。 我还有不到三十秒的时间，我想告诉观众们，我们的股票市场反弹是因为财政部拍卖了债券，这是一个非常好的拍卖，收益率接近预期位置。主要承销商需求少，但直接竞标人非常强劲，虽然可能略低于平均水平，但这次拍卖在重要的一天里相当强劲，它阻止了市场的下跌。 在我离开之前的三十秒钟里，你最担心我们经济的阿喀琉斯之踵是什么？我认为市场没有充分考虑地缘政治风险。虽然很难从战争中得到真实的消息，但从我阅读的内容来看，乌克兰战事似乎有升级的迹象，而且欧洲选举也带来了更多的政治不确定性。当我们有很多地缘政治不确定性时，会导致企业在扩展上更加犹豫，这又会影响经济。所以我认为这场地缘政治风暴可能正在酝酿，它可能比市场预期的更大。 我非常高兴你提到这一点，并且你在关注一些重要的发展，这在新闻中没有得到应有的重视。谢谢你，约瑟夫，非常感激。