Welcome to Electrified, it's your host, Dile Numis, quick shout out to Manuis Patrons, Patrick R and Hamishke. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. Last night on X, Doge designer shared Kathy Wood saying Tesla stock will be worth $2,000 in 5 years to which Elon said possible, but extremely difficult. Doing the math from where we are today that would roughly be an 11X. As the kids would say, an 11-bagger in just 5 years, something that Tesla is no stranger to doing. I'll be honest, when you say the number out loud, it's still a bit jarring because $2,000 per share would be over a $6 trillion market cap. I already know some people out there in the community might be thinking that's child's play. Tesla did a 26X between June 2019 and November of 2021 which is correct. However, going from a $40 billion company up to $8 trillion is a different thing than going from roughly $500 billion to 6.5 trillion. And 11X from where Tesla is at today market cap wise would be an unprecedented feat. But as we know, Elon specializes in making the impossible merely late, but just to give some context to how hard this really is going to be, right now after NVIDIA's historic run they still only sit at a $2.5 trillion market cap. Nobody really knows where Tesla will end up 5 years from now, but what we do know for sure is it's going to be enjoyable watching that story unfold.
欢迎来到《电动化》,我是主持人Dile Numis,特别 shout out 给 Manuis 的赞助者,Patrick R 和 Hamishke。感谢您选择支持本频道。昨晚在X节目中,狗狗设计师分享了凯西·伍德(Kathy Wood)的看法,称特斯拉股票在5年内将价值2000美元,对此埃隆表示可能,但极端困难。根据今天的情况做一下运算,这大概是一个11倍的增长。正如年轻人所说,五年内11倍增长,这对于特斯拉来说并不陌生。老实说,当你大声说出这个数字时,仍然有点令人震惊,因为每股2000美元将意味着超过6万亿美元的市值。我知道社区里有些人可能认为这只不过是儿戏。特斯拉在2019年6月至2021年11月之间增长了26倍,这是正确的。然而,从400亿美元的公司涨到8万亿美元,与从约5000亿美元涨到6.5万亿美元是两码事。从现在起特斯拉的市值增长11倍将是一项前所未有的壮举。但我们知道,埃隆擅长将不可能变为可能,尽管可能有些晚,但只是为了让大家明白这将会有多么艰巨,现在即使是在英伟达历史性的增长后,他们市值仍然只有2.5万亿美元。我们真的不知道特斯拉5年后会达到何种高度,但我们确实知道,看着这个故事的发展将是件令人愉快的事。
For the roughly 9th time this year, we're hearing that Tesla has broken ground on its megapack factory in Shanghai. This time though, it's coming from the official Tesla Asia account and they did have a little ceremony. At the ceremony, the Shanghai Lin Yang Economic Development Group became the first customer for the plants megapack in China and signed a contract with Tesla. I was able to find this from the Global Times, they said the negotiation and signing of the Shanghai energy storage contract took only one month, once again setting a record for the Lin Yang speed. Tesla's megapactory in Shanghai covers around 200,000 square meters, which is roughly 2 million square feet, with a total investment around $200 million. None of the articles I read had a contract size for this deal between Tesla and the Lin Yang Group, but Tesla Chan said they'd be buying 8 Tesla megapacks. They're also confirming this factory aims to export products to overseas market, including the Asia Pacific region. Production is still expected to begin early 2025 and at full capacity we're looking for 10,000 megapacks per year, or 40 gigawatt hours, just the same as Tesla's facility in Leethrop. If you go to the Tesla careers page, you will actually find a few jobs listed and specifically if you scroll past all of these jobs for Tesla's start program, which is their training program, you'll now find 20 different job postings listed, most of them in Palo Alto for Autopilot and Robotics. The only two not in that category, outside of start, a manufacturing job in Nevada and a manufacturing job in Austin, Texas.
Tesla is far ahead in self-driving cars, but every single car someday will have to have autonomous capability. It's safer, it's more convenient, it's more fun to drive. In order to do that, it is now very well known, very well understood, that learning from video directly is the most effective way to train these models. You also saw Elon talking about the incredible infrastructure that he's building. One of the things that's really revolutionary about the version 12 of Tesla's full self-driving is that it's an end-to-end generative model. It learns from watching videos, surround video, and it learns about how to drive end-to-end and using generative AI predict the path and how to steer the car. The technology is really revolutionary and the work that they're doing is incredible. So I gave you two examples. Quote posting some of those comments on X, Elon said, Thanks Jenson. Now look, Jenson's not wrong and it's always great to have one of the most esteemed and successful CEOs hyping up Tesla and Elon. However, if you look at all of the comments Jenson made after Nvidia's earnings, you'll see that he was basically hyping up all of its biggest customers. With that context out there though, the good news is I think more people are willing to listen to and believe what Jenson Huang says rather than somebody like Timothy B. Lee from Ours, technical. If you know, you know.
A second judge has now found that black workers faced years of widespread race harassment at Fremont. Alameda County Judge Noel Wise cited more than 500 declarations from Tesla workers who swore under oath they experienced or observed racial abuse. These statements cover a period of roughly eight years at Fremont. They're saying the hundreds or thousands of workers who may wish to seek damages from Tesla over their treatment at the factory must file separate individual lawsuits. The expectation is the filing of these suits may be later this year and they could total up to 10,000 cases. The biggest questions for all of these cases will boil down to how much did Tesla know? How long did they know for and what did they do in response?
Tesla has told suppliers to start building components in parts outside of both China and Taiwan by as early as next year thanks to rising geopolitical uncertainties. Suppliers making components like circuit boards, displays and ECUs, electronic controlled units for use in Tesla models sold outside of China have received a request from Tesla. This according to six supply chain executives. The rising geopolitical risks are at least in part thanks to the United States election this year and Tesla is looking to build up supply chains for these components outside of China and Taiwan. Tesla hopes such a proposal can materialize from next year's new projects. AKA potentially a brand new supply chain for the cybercab not reliant on China or Taiwan for those specific parts. A supply chain exec said we serve several American automakers and Tesla is the most aggressive in terms of trying to avoid the risks surrounding China and Taiwan.
Of note, Tesla's request came before the United States announced it would sharply raise tariffs. Supply chain security is of course important to Tesla but this move if the suppliers can actually oblige may ultimately lead to higher costs if these Chinese Taiwan based companies have to set up operations outside of China and Taiwan. It was reported earlier this month that LFP cells at the cell level coming from China were going for around $56 per kilowatt hour. That was 40% below last year's average outside of China. Fast forward a few days in Bloomberg NEF is saying now that price is even lower at $47 per kilowatt hour half as much as such batteries outside of China. As we've talked about BYD and CATL make most of the world's LFP at the moment but there are some companies like Mitra-Chem in California and South Korea's SKON that plan to start making LFP cells in 2025 and 2026. Those prices however are for LFP cells in battery storage. They're saying LFP cells for EVs are about $10 per kilowatt hour more. This survey was of LFP manufacturers and the participants said they charged $47 per kilowatt hour for LFP cells in April in China and an average of $90 per kilowatt hour at the system level. In a recent quote for delivery in Europe a Chinese battery maker said it would sell LFP for $114 per kilowatt hour at the system level that compared with an average price of $157 per kilowatt hour in December. Two major takeaways obviously LFP battery prices are coming down significantly and quickly. And two as we would expect most of these Chinese companies charge more for their LFP exports than they sell them at domestically. We won't know for sure but this could work out incredibly well for Tesla to secure a ton of LFP cells for the cybercab right now at these low prices and hopefully lock that in for a few years because as we've learned over the years most markets ebb and flow.
Joe Rogan just had some comments about Elon saying he's my favorite billionaire that dude's wild he's a wild boy. I'll buy Teslas as long as they sell them just to support that dude. You need an Elon Musk in this world. You need a wild boy. You need a dude who's got $200 billion who dunks on people. We like Elon for many more reasons than just his dunking on people but if you're a fan of the dunking we have something for you later in this episode. Alright guys so my golf trip is now behind me and my focus is shifted back to fitness. I have a long way to go to get back to where I'd like to be as some of you know life forced me off the fitness path for a bit but it's always been a huge part of my life. So all I will say for now just be on the lookout.
The same goes for AG1 the sponsor of this video. We have some exciting things to share next month and it'll go a long way to proving how AG1 is actually backed by research despite some fudge you may see out there. One thing I know for sure is we're all different so ultimately you just have to try it for yourself. For me having it has always given me peace of mind knowing my body is getting what it needs even when my eating gets off the rails or I'm on the go. And to those of you that have lower energy than you'd like if you have the means it's certainly worth a shot given that you may just be lacking some basic nutrition.
I initially checked out AG1 as I wanted to support Lex Friedman years ago and if you happen to be in a similar boat with Electrified you can get 5 travel packs and a 1 year supply of vitamin D3K2 for free. The link is below and the QR code is right on the screen. Just so you guys know I am not glossing over this but Axios just put out one of its annual surveys and the short story is that Tesla has fallen dramatically from where they placed in 2021. Back then they were 8th and this survey is effectively for brand reputation. Fast forward to this year and Tesla has fallen down the list 263 just behind Ford at 55. The only other automaker lower on the list was the VW group at 69. And the general public in the United States still view Honda and Toyota very favorably ranking them at 7 and 12 out of this list of 100 respectively. But we're going to move on quickly because
if you actually look at the methodology you'll find each company score is comprised of a statistically significant sample size of 325 respondents. Thus not a big sample size at all but at least according to this poll Tesla's rankings have indeed been falling the past few years. A Tesla investor the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust said today it will continue to back Elon's 2018 pay plan. They are however yet to decide on Tesla's move to Texas. The trust owns less than $1 billion of Tesla stock but replying to the news Elon said much appreciated they keep their word on a deal. Elon spoke at the Viva Tech conference and he had a few comments on Tesla.
You know I kind of stop I don't have like a news loads on me and I rarely read news articles on me. In fact even Walter Isaacson's book I asked Walter if should I read the book and he said no so then I didn't even read the book on myself. So I actually don't quite know what the public perception is except that you know the nature of news is that it is going to be salacious. You know it is going to be somewhat of a caricature because the more sort of crazy something sounds the more clicks it will get. Elon Musk it's Karen Cho from CNBC.
I think it's fair to say there are lingering doubts about your commitment to bring a low cost EV to market in a landscape where the likes of BYD can produce a car for about $10,000. Are 100% tariffs from the Biden administration the green light you need to push ahead with this low cost EV and if so what is the timeline for deliveries? Well I mean it's difficult for me to answer questions about a publicly traded company that are of such a significant nature. Neither Tesla nor I asked for these tariffs. In fact I was surprised when they were announced.
You know Tesla competes quite well in the market in China with no tariffs and no differential support. So in general I'm in favor of no tariffs. I'm also actually in favor of no tax incentives for EVs but provided that there are also the tax incentives for oil and gas must also be eliminated. So I'm in favor of no tariffs and no incentives for electric vehicles or for oil and gas. And if they're all taken away I think that would be for the best. I think generally things that inhibit freedom of exchange or distort the market are not good. Well actually I think that there's a lot of charging infrastructure.
You can travel certainly anywhere in Greater Europe using Tesla superchargers and Europe actually has a lot of pretty good third party superchargers and you can travel anywhere in North America, anywhere in China, Japan. So I think actually the freedom to travel with high speed charging is solid in most parts of the world and will be solid everywhere. And here's that dunk that I promised you. Hi Elon, it's Priha Shavasta from Business Insider. Taking it to Tesla, Tesla's had a bumpy few months looking at flagging sales at home, stock market decline, layoffs. When you look back are there any things? We can stop the question right now because I don't think Business Insider is a real publication. Okay. So let's do one for the next question. Alright, thank you. So next question before. Oh, the real question is did the audience start clapping in agreement with Elon that Business Insider is not a real publication or did they just not know how to react?
Tesla released its impact report for 2023 today. So if you have the time I'd encourage you just to leaf through it and maybe stop and browse on the topics that may interest you personally, I will however share a few of my highlights. You can go to Tesla.com slash impact to see an abbreviated version of this report. There's more pictures. It's prettier to look at and it really covers Tesla's main highlights. But the actual report itself is 160 pages. Talking about the semi, Tesla said charging with electricity is around two times cheaper per mile than refueling with diesel. Operators can see estimated fuel savings of up to $150,000 within their first three years of ownership.
Just a fun fact, more than anything in 2023, Tesla's solar owners generated enough electricity to power all Tesla locations, including manufacturing, support, research, sales, service and delivery locations more than three times as much. Tesla has been called out for this in the past, but at the end of 2023, around 90% of Tesla's mobile service fleet were EVs. We'd like that number to be 100%, but it's great progress as in 2020, EVs only made up 65% of Tesla's mobile service fleet.
Tesla's doing a march of the nines of sorts when it comes to supercharger reliability, setting a new record for 2023 with 99.97% uptime. Here's a great data point anytime somebody says, oh, those Tesla vehicles that are recalled all the time, 99% of vehicles recalled globally in 2023 did not require a trip to a service center. Tesla received 5.9 million job applications in 2023. Tesla highlighted its battery passport for the Cybertruck 4680 cell and they called out 0.17 kilowatt hours per kilogram of energy density or 170 watt hours per kilogram.
That's effectively the industry average for this type of chemistry, but that checks out because they said on the Q1 call by the end of the year they want to be better than their suppliers so they're not there right now. Tesla is already doing a non-trivial amount of recycling at both Gigah Austin and Giganavada, saying 3 gigawatt hours of battery materials were sent to Tesla's recycling partners, which is enough for 43,000 plus Model Y rear wheel drive vehicles. And at Tesla's recycling facilities they said 650 megawatt hours of battery materials were processed at their battery shredding facility, which is enough for 9,000 plus Model Y rear wheel drive vehicles.
My takeaway is always the same after going through these reports and that's that Tesla really is a mission-driven company first and above everything else. Eli Burton and Anwar Beck had a chat with Rob Maurer, they talked about Tesla and everything going on as of late, so figured I'd give you at least a quick clip. And right now we went through a hype cycle and now we're probably in the trough of a cycle and that'll probably flip again at some point.
So of course when you're in that trough, the business is going to suffer, it's going to hurt and people are going to look for someone to blame that for. And like I said, there's probably some validity to some of those criticisms, but is that enough for me to say like, oh, what Elon has done for that period to get Tesla to where it is today? Am I just going to ignore that through all that out because of maybe there's been a little bit more focus on Twitter for a couple of years now or something like that? No, because ultimately I think Elon is still like he's been with Tesla for two decades, right? Like this is his baby, like this SpaceX, the other companies, they're all incredibly important to him and he's not just going to let it fail.
So I think anyone that's interpreting like on a period of time where some attention was on Twitter as like a lack of attention on Tesla or lack of interest or something like that, I think is wrong. I think the Walter Isaacson biography demonstrated that. I think it showed that Elon still spends the majority of its time on Tesla even during that period where it's extremely difficult for him to do that. So I think it's just people like looking at the stock, looking at what's happening in the market and saying like, oh, you know, I don't like the deal on posting on Twitter and he's been way too involved here. I didn't like that he sold. Like yeah, obviously no Tesla investors are going to like that he sold, but is that enough reason for me to say like this guy who's been probably the one of the best in history at doing what he does? How I want him gone? Yeah. No, it's just like it's just nonsense to me.
It was good to hear from Rob. I'll have the full chat linked below. Kia released that it's upcoming EV3 will be coming to the United States, but they have not yet announced an actual date for when it'll go on sale in the US. We also don't know much about the vehicle other than the long range EV3 should have an 81.4 kilowatt hour battery pack and get around 350 miles of range. Kia also said regenerative braking settings can be controlled from the steering wheel, the first for a Kia vehicle. And in terms of pricing, all they said is that the goal posts are between $30,000 and $50,000.
So far, this is just for the Model S and X, but Tesla has just released a new paint color calling it Lunar Silver, the cost $2,500. They're calling it a clean silver with a pronounced metallic effect and subtle blue tint. As always with colors, I like to see it in the sun in different lighting because these pictures always look really, really good. Jeep released a video comparing its upcoming Wagonear S, which is a pre-production model, and the whole video was comparing itself to the Tesla Model Y, free advertising for Tesla. Most of the video was highlighting the Wagonear S is doing 0-60 in 3.4 seconds with the rollout subtracted. The Model Y performance does it around 3.5 seconds, but hopefully we have Juniper sometime in the next 12 months, maybe that number gets bumped down.
The Wagonear S is supposed to be hitting the markets in the fall 2024. People's stock closed the day at $173.74 down 3.54% while the Nasdaq was down 0.39%. It was a lower volume day for Tesla trading about 25 million shares below the average volume the past 30 days. Don't forget, check out AG1 links below if you're interested and get yourself in that mindset of something is better than nothing, both when it comes to nutrition and wellness, but also fitness and performance. Hope you guys have a wonderful day. Please like the video if you did, you can find me on X-linked below, and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.