Government vs. Tesla...and Everyone / Wall Street Models Robotaxis / EV Charging Being Solved ⚡️

Welcome to Electrified, it's your host, Dylan Umis, quick shout out to my new or updated patrons, Halvibe and Harold B. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. Definitely do not get carried away with this one, but we get some hope when it comes to pothole avoidance. Oh, these potholes, please go down, please go down. Oh good. Oh, it's slowing down. Oh, right! Couldn't avoid that many potholes, but at least it slowed down. That's amazing. It's almost like a speed bump there. Just FYI, there are other instances of similar behavior, so that wasn't just a one-off. At this point though, I would not be relying on that feature to be reliable everywhere.

欢迎来到《电动化》，我是主持人迪伦·乌米斯，快速向我的新的或更新的赞助人哈尔维布和哈罗德·B致敬。感谢您选择支持该频道。不要对这个太感到兴奋，但在避免坑洼时我们有了一些希望。哦，这些坑洼，请往下走，请往下走。哦，太好了。它在减速了。哦，太棒了！虽然无法避开那么多坑洼，但至少减速了。太神奇了。就像在那里放了一个减速带。只是提醒一下，还有其他类似行为的情况，所以这并不是偶然现象。但目前我不会依赖于这个功能在任何地方都是可靠的。

I believe this picture is coming from Australia, but with a new Tesla spring update, Autopilot now also gets a full-screen visualization. As some videos of this Tesla spring update begin to come out, it looks like the power meter has been moved from the top over to the left hand side for acceleration and region braking. That one was also in Australia. Tesla shared some communication with owners in Australia and South Korea, saying that the referral benefits will be ending on April 30th this year. With this one, is Tesla looking to cut costs? Is this part of Elon's new streamlining the sales and delivery program? Will this roll out on a global basis? For now, we don't know.

我相信这张照片来自澳大利亚，但随着特斯拉的新春季更新，Autopilot现在也获得了全屏可视化。随着一些特斯拉春季更新的视频开始出现，看起来动力表已经从顶部移到左边进行加速和区域刹车。这张图片也是在澳大利亚拍摄的。特斯拉向澳大利亚和韩国的车主分享了一些信息，表示推荐福利将于今年4月30日结束。通过这样的做法，特斯拉是否在寻求削减成本？这是否是埃隆新推出的销售和交付计划简化的一部分？这将全球推广吗？目前，我们还不清楚。

Cybertruck customers are once again getting their VINs, and to that, Elon said, there were no injuries or accidents because of this, we're just being very cautious. One could argue Tesla got fortunate with this one, if it really was the accelerator pedal or part of it getting stuck down, that could have caused some problems. It's wild how every move Tesla makes gets blown out of proportion. The fight right now around Tesla does feel like it's near an all-time high. For example, this article titled Tesla's Cybertruck Disaster Insider reveals serious safety issues behind the scenes of EV rollout. The article goes on to talk about that pedal issue that they referred to as a gas pedal, and then proceeded to highlight all of the unfinished Cybertrucks from a drone flyover. And then on Reddit, people just feed on this stuff. The good news though, deliveries have resumed.

特斯拉Cybertruck的客户们再次收到他们的VIN编号，对此，埃隆表示，由于此事没有造成任何伤亡或事故，我们只是非常谨慎。有人可能会认为特斯拉这次运气很好，如果真的是油门踏板或其部分被卡住了，那可能会引起一些问题。特斯拉每一次的举动都被夸大了。目前围绕特斯拉的争议似乎达到了历史最高点。例如，有一篇题为《特斯拉的Cybertruck灾难：知情人士揭露电动汽车推出背后的严重安全问题》的文章。文章继续讨论他们所称的油门问题，然后用无人机航拍来强调所有未完成的Cybertrucks。而Reddit上的人们则不断炒作这些事情。然而好消息是，交付已经恢复。

Some source code on Tesla's website in the UK was spotted for the upcoming Model 3 performance, and they're saying that it will be called the performance not the ludicrous as we've been expecting. Nothing in the source code is a guarantee, and we should be within a few weeks of launch, but here's what they found. All new adaptive damping powered by in-house software gives you enhanced body control without sacrificing daily usability or comfort. A bespoke chassis and suspension hardware is tuned to provide intuitive razor sharp response to driver inputs. Track mode V3 features all new calibration for the powertrain and adaptive suspension to give you more authority behind the wheel. You can customize your handling balance, stability controls, and regen braking to set the car up how you like it. The performance variant will have a unique daytime running light design for better visibility. Some of these we've already known about, but another lightweight staggered wheels provide sharper turn in response, improved predictability, increased traction out of corners, and optimized aerodynamics. A user on TMC also said enhanced pedal feel and improved heat management to ensure consistent braking at all speeds and across a wider temperature range. The code mentioned combined horsepower over 500 without being specific, I believe the outgoing performance variant was 505. Nothing was in the code for the acceleration, but the whisper number is 2.9 seconds.

特斯拉英国网站上的一些源代码显示了即将推出的Model 3 Performance版本，他们称其为Performance而不是我们期待的Ludicrous。源代码中的内容并不是百分之百确认，距离发布只有几周时间，但以下是他们发现的内容。全新的自适应减震系统由内部软件驱动，为您提供了增强的车身控制，而不会牺牲日常使用性或舒适性。定制的底盘和悬挂硬件经过调校，以提供直观的极快反应给驾驶者。赛道模式V3采用全新的动力系统和自适应悬挂的校准，使您在驾驶中更具控制力。您可以自定义操纵平衡、稳定控制和再生制动，以适应您喜欢的车辆设置。性能版将具有独特的白天行车灯设计，以提高可见性。其中一些我们已经知道，但另一款轻量化的错位轮毂提供了更锐利的转向响应，提高了可预测性，从弯道出来更具牵引力，并优化了空气动力学。TMC上的用户还表示增强的踏板感觉和改进的热管理，以确保在所有速度和更广温度范围内保持一致的制动性能。代码提到了超过500马力的综合马力，虽然没有具体数字，但我认为前一代性能版是505马力。代码中没有关于加速度的信息，但传闻的数字是2.9秒。

Goldman Sachs just put out a note about Tesla and Autonomy actually, their price target is still only $175, but they had some encouraging things to say. The bottom line is that we believe Tesla is among the leaders in Autonomy 8S tech and in the long term we believe software and digital services can be a meaningful driver of its business. With this one, the specific numbers really aren't what's important to me, it's just that Wall Street is now beginning to actually model for the RoboTaxi business. This table is certainly pretty basic, they just have the number of Tesla RoboTaxi's in operation up here with the blue highlight and then the revenue per trip over on the left, number of trips per RoboTaxi per day, and then the chart with the results. Just to explain the high end, they take a million RoboTaxi's times $35 per trip, times 20 trips per day, to get a number of 255.5 billion dollars in revenue for the year. These numbers are in millions.

高盛刚刚发布了一份关于特斯拉和自动驾驶的报告，他们的目标股价仍然只有175美元，但他们说了一些鼓舞人心的话。关键是，我们认为特斯拉在自动驾驶技术方面处于领先地位，长期来看，我们相信软件和数字服务可以成为其业务的重要推动力。对我来说，具体的数字并不重要，重要的是华尔街现在开始真正为RoboTaxi业务建模。这张表格基本上是很简单的，他们只列出了特斯拉RoboTaxi的运营数量，并用蓝色突出显示，然后在左边列出了每次行程的收入、每辆RoboTaxi每天的行程次数，以及结果的图表。举例说明高端，他们将100万辆RoboTaxi乘以每次35美元的费用，乘以每天20次行程，得到一年2555亿美元的收入。这些数字单位是百万。

They did a similar chart for the monthly subscriptions, but Exhibit A, why I'm not that concerned about the specific numbers for the installed base, they started on the low end with 25 million. All they're doing here is taking that installed base times the actual monthly dollar amount times the attach rate, and then multiplying that by 12 months in a year to get the revenue figure here. But given Tesla's current global fleet is around 6 million, why in the world would they start with 25 million on the low end for the installed base? Again though, what's really important here is that Wall Street is spending time modeling for RoboTaxi's. Morgan Stanley also gave us a new Tesla stock note. It can be helpful to stay abreast with what Wall Street is thinking about and what questions they're asking.

他们为每月订阅制作了类似的图表，但对于安装基数的具体数字，我并不太担心，因为他们从25百万的低端开始了。他们在这里做的一切只是将安装基数乘以实际每月金额再乘以附着率，然后再乘以一年12个月来得到收入数字。但考虑到特斯拉目前的全球车队约为600万，为什么他们会从25百万的低端开始计算安装基数呢？但更重要的是，华尔街正在花时间为RoboTaxi进行建模。根据摩根斯坦利给我们的新特斯拉股票提示，了解华尔街正在思考的问题和他们在问什么问题可能是有帮助的。

Here they said, perhaps Tesla has already learned what most auto analysts have long known about the car industry. That after saying, even if Tesla were to release a $25,000 car with a lot of nice features, how long would it take for China to duplicate what they have done? Obviously that would help Tesla grow volumes, but what's it really going to do from a margin perspective over the long term? Morgan Stanley still is not expecting actual RoboTaxi's without a human for the next decade. And while the non-gap consensus EPS from Wall Street for Tesla fiscal 24 is $2.67, Morgan Stanley is only expecting $1.12 significantly below. And underscoring what we talked about yesterday, they said, we would argue the uncertainty around Elon's comp plan and related concerns raised by Elon of not wanting advanced AI capability held in an entity for which he doesn't have a blocking minority is creating great angst amongst Tesla investors. Thus Wall Street is asking the question, where will the AI value accrue within Tesla or outside of Tesla? For them, that question is an existential one and in their view highly deterministic to the long term option value embedded in the stock. Finally, despite all of the negative sentiment, the positive factors underpinning an investment in Tesla data tech compute infra AI capability are far less visible and very much being drowned out of the narrative. This is understandable and in our opinion, it will eventually change. I definitely don't agree with all of their conclusions all the time, but they really are starting to understand the Tesla story.

这里他们说，也许特斯拉已经学到了大多数汽车分析师长期以来对汽车行业所知道的东西。即便特斯拉发布了一款售价25000美元并具有许多优秀功能的汽车，中国需要多长时间才能复制他们所做的事情？显然，这会帮助特斯拉增加销量，但从长期利润的角度来看，真的会有多大影响呢？摩根士丹利仍然不认为在未来十年内会出现真正的无人出租车。尽管华尔街对特斯拉2024财年的预期非GAAP每股收益为2.67美元，摩根士丹利预期的收益只有1.12美元，大大低于预期。强调了我们昨天谈到的问题，他们说，我们认为埃隆的薪酬计划的不确定性以及埃隆提出的不希望高级人工智能能力存放在他无法拥有控制权的实体中引起了特斯拉投资者的巨大焦虑。因此华尔街提出了一个问题，人工智能的价值会在特斯拉内部还是在特斯拉外部增值？对于他们来说，这个问题是一个存在的问题，并且在他们看来，在股票中蕴含的长期期权价值上高度决定性。最后，尽管有所有的负面情绪，支撑特斯拉数据技术计算基础人工智能能力投资的积极因素远不那么明显，并且在叙述中很容易被淹没。这是可以理解的，而且在我们看来，最终会发生改变。我并不一直同意他们的所有结论，但他们真的开始理解特斯拉的故事。

In Europe, the rate for non-Tesla owners to use the supercharger network has been reduced. We're talking euros here, it went from $12.99 down to $9.99. There's also now an annual option for 100 euros. As Joe Dealey highlighted on Tuesday night this week on the California grid, battery storage discharge went over 6 gigawatts for the first time and batteries were the largest source of supply for a time. If you go to gridstatus.io, you can actually check and the previous record was 5.6 megawatts on February 14th this year. For the Kaizo grid, this chart is just showing the energy in megawatts broken down by resource in five minute increments and with this screenshot we have batteries ahead of natural gas. You couldn't see it in that image, but batteries were the leading source of supply for about two hours. A pretty cool milestone as this means battery storage became for the first time the largest source of supply in the California grid, which delivers electricity to the world's fifth biggest economy and is one of the world's biggest grids. If you go back to 2020, the record output at that time was only 195 megawatts.

在欧洲，非特斯拉车主使用超级充电网络的费率已经降低。我们在谈论的是欧元，费用从12.99美元降到9.99美元。现在还有一个年度选项，费用是100欧元。正如乔·迪利本周二晚上在加利福尼亚电网上强调的那样，电池储能的放电率首次超过了6吉瓦，电池曾一度成为供应的最大来源。如果您访问gridstatus.io，实际上可以查看到之前的记录是今年2月14日的5.6兆瓦。对于Kaizo电网，这张图表显示的是以五分钟为间隔的每小时兆瓦数，显示了各种资源的分配，从这个截图中可以看到电池超过了天然气。虽然在图片中看不到，但电池曾成为供应的主要来源约两个小时。这是一个非常棒的里程碑，因为这意味着电池储存首次成为加利福尼亚电网中最大的供应来源，该电网向全球第五大经济体提供电力，是世界上最大的电网之一。如果回顾2020年，当时的最高输出仅为195兆瓦。

Bloomberg went through some federal data and said there were almost 600 public fast charging stations switched on for US drivers in the first quarter, up 7.6% over Q1 of last year. Here's some good data for your conversations. There are now almost 8200 fast charging EV stations across the country or one for every 15 gas stations. Tesla is responsible for slightly more than 25% of them. Bloomberg NEF is estimating that annual global public charging revenue will be $127 billion by 2030 with Tesla on track to account for $7.4 billion of that. And as we've talked about, more and more of these charging stations are now becoming profitable. Finally, more DCFC stations are actually coming online with the federal funds now flowing to different states, but there's going to be a gap from this actually happening and the public realizing it.

彭博社查看了一些联邦数据，并表示美国第一季度已经有近600个公共快速充电站为驾驶员提供服务，比去年第一季度增长了7.6%。这是关于充电站的一些好消息。目前全国有近8200个快速充电电动车充电站，平均每15个加油站就有一个充电站。特斯拉负责的充电站数量略超过25%。据彭博NEF估计，到2030年，全球公共充电收入将达到1270亿美元，其中特斯拉将占据74亿美元。正如我们所讨论的，越来越多的充电站现在变得盈利。最后，随着联邦资金流向各州，更多的直流快充站正在陆续启用，但这实际发生和公众意识到之间还存在一定差距。

Tesla is pushing forward with their plan to build an electric big rig charging corridor stretching from Texas to California. Tesla was looking for $100 million and then they were going to kick in 24 million of their own. They're looking to build 9 semi charging stations between Laredo, Texas and Fremont. Despite Tesla missing out on this round of funding, Rohan Patel actually said some of the sites along the route are no brainers even without the funding. The 1800 mile route should help connect Fremont to Gigatexis and ultimately to Gigamexico. The plan is to have each station with 8 750 kilowatt chargers for Tesla semis and four chargers open to other electric trucks.

特斯拉正在推进他们的计划，建立一条从德克萨斯州到加利福尼亚州的电动卡车充电走廊。特斯拉正在寻找1亿美元的资金，然后他们自己将投入2400万美元。他们计划在拉雷多和弗里蒙特之间建立9个半挂车充电站。尽管特斯拉错过了这轮的资金，罗汉·帕特尔实际上表示，沿途的一些站点即使没有资金也是显而易见的选择。这条1800英里的路线将有助于连接弗里蒙特到吉加德克西斯，最终到吉加墨西哥。计划是每个充电站配备8个750千瓦的特斯拉半挂车充电器，以及四个对其他电动卡车开放的充电器。

It gets worse than Tesla just not getting the funding. We have half of this tranche of funding from the CFI being for high use locations, schools, parks, libraries, etc. Then the other half of the funding was actually four corridor projects in the same area where Tesla was looking to do this, but instead they want that money to go toward hydrogen fueling stations. To that Rohan Patel said funding hydrogen stations will go down as purely wasted money. Governments around the globe are wasting tax dollars on hydrogen for light heavy duty infrastructure. Like smoking, it's never too late to quit. In my opinion, it's things like this that will serve as the canary in the coal mine for Tesla actually launching high volume semi production. There's no point in making thousands for many different customers with routes across the country if there's nowhere to charge.

特斯拉没有获得资金只是开始的糟糕情况。我们从加拿大基础设施基金获得了一半的资金，用于高使用率地点，学校、公园、图书馆等。而另一半的资金实际上是用于同一地区的四个走廊项目，而特斯拉本来计划在那里展开业务，但他们现在希望这笔钱用来建造氢燃料站。罗汉·帕特尔表示，用于建设氢充电站的资金将被浪费掉。世界各国政府正在将纳税人的钱花在轻重型基础设施的氢燃料上，就像吸烟一样，戒断氢能源永远不会太迟。在我看来，正是像这样的事情将成为特斯拉实际上启动大量半挂卡车生产的前兆。如果没有地方充电，为许多不同客户生产成千上万台车辆就没有意义。

Stanford has been tracking Redwood closely the past two years and they put this report together and concluded that Redwood's recycling and refining operations cut carbon dioxide emissions by 70% compared with traditional recycling methods and 40% compared with other recycling processes. The savings were even greater when Redwood was dealing with manufacturing scrap which currently makes up 50% of the materials available. At Redwood, nothing goes to landfill. There are no gas lines. Everything is electric. This is also important to keep in mind for conversations with doubters. Their CTO said once we've changed over the entire vehicle fleet to electric and all those minerals are in consumption will only have to replace a couple percent each year that's lost in the process.

过去两年，斯坦福一直密切关注红木公司，并制作了这份报告。报告得出结论，与传统的回收方法相比，红木公司的回收和提炼运营可将二氧化碳排放量降低70%，与其他回收流程相比可降低40%。当红木公司处理制造废料时，节约更大，目前这些废料占到了50%。在红木公司，没有任何废物被送往填埋场，也没有天然气管道，一切都是电动的。这也是与怀疑者交谈时需要牢记的重点。他们的首席技术官表示，一旦我们将整个车辆队伍换成电动的，并且所有这些矿物在消耗中只需每年替换少量损失的话，那将是非常重要的。

They talked about one of Redwood's more important innovations, the RC1, which is basically an enormous slow cooker baking the junk at several hundred degrees for about an hour. This machine does not use any oxygen. There's no combustion and thus no emissions. It simply reduces the glues, plastics and unwanted fluids into charcoal. After going through the RC1, Redwood then does some sifting using high power magnets. Excitingly, in the coming weeks, Redwood's copper foil production which has never been done in the US before will officially enter the supply chain to be used in American EVs. Redwood's single foil making machine can supply enough batteries per year for more than 13,000 long range EVs. By 2028 though, between Nevada and the new location in South Carolina, they expect to have 100 of these machines. They still have plans to supply the Panasonic factory that should be ultimately supplying Tesla and others, and Redwood is currently processing waste at a rate of almost 20 gigawatt hours per year.

他们谈论了Redwood的一个更重要的创新，即RC1，这基本上是一个巨大的慢炖锅，在数百度下烹饪垃圾约一个小时。这台机器不使用任何氧气。没有燃烧，因此也没有排放。它只是将胶水，塑料和不需要的液体还原成炭。经过RC1处理后，Redwood然后使用高功率磁铁进行筛选。令人兴奋的是，未来几周，Redwood的铜箔生产将正式进入供应链，用于美国的电动汽车。Redwood的单层箔生产机器每年可以为超过13,000辆长续航电动汽车提供足够的电池。到2028年，他们预计在内华达州和南卡罗来纳州的新地点将拥有100台这样的机器。他们仍然计划向最终应该向特斯拉和其他公司供应的松下工厂供货，目前Redwood每年正在处理近20吉瓦小时的废物。

Tom Randall from Bloomberg just got a tour of Redwood and shared some pictures. This is that RC1 machine. Great to see Redwood making progress on a very hard problem that eventually Tesla will also benefit from. David Barron, Ron Barron's son, who manages a little over a billion dollars, just said the Model 2 is a crucial piece of our thesis. If they stop that, that's investment thesis changing. David said he'd be very surprised if the Model 2 was actually taken off the table. To reiterate that point, Deutsche Bank just downgraded Tesla on the idea that Tesla might delay plans for the Model 2. Even Barclays just said that Tesla's Q1 call is extra highly anticipated and it expects it to be a negative catalyst for the stock. Dan Levy from Barclays said this strategy pivot is a clear net negative for the Tesla investment thesis as it casts significant uncertainty on the path ahead for Tesla. Making success of the stock dependent on bets with seemingly binary outcomes.

彭博社的汤姆·兰德尔刚刚参观了Redwood，并分享了一些照片。这是RC1机器。很高兴看到Redwood在解决一个非常困难的问题上取得进展，最终特斯拉也会受益。管理超过10亿美元资产的罗恩·巴伦的儿子大卫·巴伦刚刚表示，Model 2是我们投资论点的关键组成部分。如果他们停止这个项目，这将改变投资论点。大卫说，如果Model 2真的被搁置，他会感到非常惊讶。为了重申这一点，德意志银行刚刚下调了特斯拉的评级，原因是特斯拉可能推迟Model 2的计划。甚至巴克莱也表示，特斯拉的第一季电话会议备受期待，预计将成为股价的负面催化剂。巴克莱的丹·利维表示，这种战略转变明显对特斯拉的投资论点是一种明显的净负面影响，因为它给特斯拉前进的道路带来了重大的不确定性。成功依赖于似乎具有二元结果的赌注。

Barron did say there's too much growth potential in the company. The full self-driving is too big a recurring revenue and earnings opportunity to not invest in right now. I'm really just sharing this as confirmation of what I said two to three weeks ago that Wall Street is not going to like Tesla shifting its focus to Robotaxi deprioritizing the Model 2. Or whatever you want to call it. Hyundai announced a new partnership with a material manufacturer, Torre Industries, to develop materials to enhance the performance of EVs. Hilariously they said we aim to become the first mover and gain a competitive edge in the global market. No shade to Hyundai, they're doing good things with EVs but first mover? Come on now. Consumers are getting some big discounts on EVs at the dealer lots. Nissan is now offering discounts up to $16,000 and Mercedes up to $19,000 on their EQS. In Q1 in the US the average transaction price for EVs was $55,000 compared to $47,000 for ICE vehicles. Sadly though this number for EVs will continue to be skewed upward as all of these manufacturers roll out their early EVs that are higher on the price scale.

巴伦确实说，该公司有太多的增长潜力。全自动驾驶是一个太大的可持续收入和盈利机会，现在不投资简直是错失良机。我只是想确认我两三周前所说的，华尔街不会喜欢特斯拉将重点转向机器出租车，而将Model 2放在次要位置。或者无论你想叫什么名字都可以。现代汽车宣布与材料厂商Torre Industries建立新合作伙伴关系，开发能增强电动汽车性能的材料。令人捧腹的是，他们说我们的目标是成为全球市场第一的先驱者，并获得竞争优势。毫无怀疑，现代汽车在电动汽车领域做了一些好事，但是第一先驱者吗？别开玩笑了。消费者在经销商那里可以享受到电动汽车的大幅折扣。尼桑目前提供高达16000美元的折扣，奔驰EQS高达19000美元的折扣。在美国，Q1电动汽车的平均成交价格为55000美元，而内燃机汽车为47000美元。遗憾的是，随着所有这些汽车制造商推出定价更高的早期电动汽车，电动汽车的价格将会继续上升。

The dealer angst against EVs and Tesla continues to grow. One said whether it's a retailer, whether it's a manufacturer, all of us in this EV space are going to do a whole bunch of stuff we don't want to do mainly as a reaction to Tesla. Because they're such a dominant player, whatever they do moves the market in that direction. This owner who runs 30 dealerships was saying we refused to take any more at this time talking about Mustang Machis. His stores have taken a loss on almost every EV they've sold in the last three months. We knew this one was coming and now it's here. Republicans from 25 different states sued the US EPA to block those rules intended to reduce emissions. The new heavy duty trucking emission regulations are not included in this lawsuit. The Kentucky AG said the rules would harm the American economy, threaten jobs and raise prices while undermining the US electricity grid. He said there's very little consumer interest in EVs in his state. So even though the EPA did lower its emission regulations, that was not enough. This is the one where the EPA was looking to reduce emissions by about 50% from 2026 levels by 2032.

经销商对电动车和特斯拉的恐惧继续增长。有人表示，无论是零售商还是制造商，在电动汽车领域，我们都将不得不做很多我们不想做的事情，主要是作为对特斯拉的回应。因为他们是如此占主导地位，无论他们做什么都会引领市场走向。这位经营着30家经销店的所有者说，我们拒绝在此时继续接受更多的讨论Mustang Machi时。他的商店在过去三个月几乎每一辆电动车都亏本出售。我们知道这一点即将到来，现在它已经来临。来自25个不同州的共和党人向美国环境保护署提起诉讼，试图阻止那些旨在减少排放的规定。新的重型卡车排放规定并不包括在这次诉讼中。肯塔基州总检察长表示，这些规定将损害美国经济，威胁就业岗位，提高价格，并破坏美国的电力网络。他表示，他的州几乎没有任何消费者对电动汽车感兴趣。因此，即使美国环保局降低了排放规定，这还不够。这是美国环保局计划从2026年水平到2032年将排放减少约50% 的那个。

Mexico's federal government, under pressure from the US, is keeping Chinese automakers at arm's length by refusing to offer incentives like low cost public land or tax cuts for investment in EV production. The last meeting Mexican officials had with a Chinese EV maker was BYD in January this year. And the Mexican officials made it clear they would not give incentives like those awarded to automakers in the past. They're also pausing any future meetings with Chinese automakers. About 20 Chinese automakers now sell cars in Mexico, but none yet have a plant in the country. Chinese vehicles constitute about a third of the total brand offerings in Mexico. The US tariff for an imported Chinese EV is currently 27.5% so the US is looking to avoid Chinese automakers coming in through the side door through Mexico. And ultimately avoiding those tariffs. Mexican officials said although Chinese investment could help the local economy, the government is concerned about angering Washington with the USMCA up for revision in 2026. Under the sunset clause in July 2026, the three countries will decide whether to extend the USMCA for another 16 years.

墨西哥联邦政府受美国压力，拒绝向中国汽车制造商提供廉价公共土地或减税等激励措施，保持着一定距离。墨西哥官员最后一次与中国电动汽车制造商会面是在今年一月份与比亚迪（BYD）。墨西哥官员明确表示他们不会给予类似过去获得的汽车制造商那样的激励。他们还暂停了与中国汽车制造商的任何未来会面。目前有大约20家中国汽车制造商在墨西哥销售汽车，但尚无一家在该国设厂。中国汽车约占墨西哥总品牌供应的三分之一。目前，进口中国电动汽车的美国关税为27.5%，因此美国正在寻找避免中国汽车制造商通过墨西哥绕道进入的途径，从而最终避免这些关税。墨西哥官员表示，尽管中国投资可以帮助本地经济，但政府担心在2026年对美墨加拿大协定进行修订时激怒华盛顿。根据2026年7月的日落条款，三国将决定是否将美墨加拿大协定延长16年。

GM energy is now preparing to begin sales of bidirectional chargers for residential customers with the 2024 Silverado EVRST, the first vehicle to have that ability. Eventually these chargers will be available nationwide but to start only in a few states, California, Florida, Michigan, New York and Texas. The pricing for this bundle which includes a power shift charger and a home enablement kit will be $7.3,000. Installation costs will vary. The chargers are 19.2 kilowatt and in the future GM said consumers will also be able to buy stationary energy storage and integrate it with solar. These products will be sold through GM's new e-commerce platform. GM said it plans to have bidirectional charging for all Altium-based EVs by the 2026 model year.

通用能源公司现在正在准备开始销售双向充电器给家庭客户，2024 Silverado EVRST将是第一款具有该功能的车辆。最终这些充电器将在全国范围内提供，但首先只在加利福尼亚州、佛罗里达州、密歇根州、纽约州和德克萨斯州提供。这个捆绑包括一个功率转换充电器和一个家庭启用套件，价格为7.3万美元。安装费用会有所不同。这些充电器为19.2千瓦，未来通用公司表示消费者还将能够购买静态能源存储并将其与太阳能相结合。这些产品将通过通用公司的新电子商务平台进行销售。通用公司表示，他们计划在2026年车型推出前为所有基于Altium平台的电动汽车提供双向充电功能。

A Mercedes plant in Alabama will be voting on joining the UAW May 13th through the 17th. The governors of these six states just signed a statement saying, we want to keep good paying jobs and continue to grow the American auto manufacturing sector. A successful unionization drive will stop this growth in its tracks to the detriment of American workers. Immanuel Rosner from Deutsche Bank actually had an interesting comment when he was asked why he's giving Tesla a multiple fo their price target right now. The thing is, it's not like Tesla is shutting its doors. They're now going all in on a robot taxi.

阿拉巴马州的一家奔驰工厂将于5月13日至17日投票加入UAW。这六个州的州长刚刚签署了一份声明，表示我们希望保留高薪工作，并继续发展美国汽车制造业。成功的工会组织将阻止这种增长，对美国工人不利。德意志银行的伊曼纽尔·罗斯纳在被问及为什么他目前给特斯拉的目标价值设定一个倍数时，实际上有一个有趣的评论。问题在于，特斯拉并没有关闭大门。他们正在全力投入到自动驾驶出租车业务上。

We do a deep dive on a robot taxi in the note. We're not going to go through it now. But the point is, it's hard to put into numbers and it's certainly not into our earnings model. But that optionality is very, very much there. It would be highly differentiated. And we think that we should at least account for it in the multiple. So the multiple is punchy despite no earnings growth because in the end, investors in Tesla will basically say, okay, I understand the core business is no longer growing, potentially even shrinking. But to look at how exciting this business could potentially be, our rating though indicates this is highly risky. If it plays out, if they can deliver the robot taxi, is it exciting? Massively exciting.

在这份备忘录中，我们对机器人出租车进行了深入研究。我们现在不打算详细讨论，但重点是，很难用数字来加以衡量，肯定不包含在我们的盈利模型中。但这种选择权是非常存在的。它将具有高度差异化。我们认为我们至少应该在估值中考虑到它。因此，尽管没有盈利增长，但估值是令人满意的，因为最终，投资者们将基本上会说，好的，我明白核心业务不再增长，甚至可能在萎缩，但看看这家企业潜在的激动人心之处，我们的评级指出这是高风险的。如果一切按计划进行，如果他们能提供机器人出租车，这会是令人兴奋的吗？绝对激动人心。

How long will it take to get there? Can it even get there based on technology risk, regulatory risk, operational risk? This is very, very difficult to say. So we're still applying it unchanged, punchy multiple, but on much lower earnings trajectory. The information got its hands on Tesla's latest organization chart after all of the shakeup. Now we have at least 35 people reporting directly to Elon. Some new direct reports include key executives overseeing energy, public policy and business development. Not only that, but the head of sales for North America and Viv who runs Tesla's account on X.

到那里要多久？基于科技风险、监管风险、运营风险，它甚至能到达那里吗？这个问题很难回答。因此，我们仍然应用不变的紧凑复数，但利润轨迹大大降低。该信息得到了特斯拉最新组织结构图，经过所有的动荡后。现在，至少有35人直接向埃隆汇报。一些新的直接汇报包括负责能源、公共政策和业务发展的主要高管。不仅如此，北美销售主管和负责特斯拉账户的Viv也是直接汇报对象。

Elon has assumed the oversight of the people who were reporting to Drew Baglino. Among those executives are Rebecca Tenucci, Senior VP of charging infrastructure and Bon Egleston, Senior Director of Tesla's 4680s. Rohan Patel's role is now divided among Brooke Kintz, Director of Government Relations and Policy and Directors of Business Development Hassan Nazar and Patrick Bean. Don't freak out, the org chart did not have Ashok Elaswami or Milan Kovatz, the Director of Tesla's bot. But they said the autopilot org charts were not visible to employees in recent months, most likely to deter poaching.

埃隆已经承担起了原本报告给德鲁·巴格利诺的人员的监督工作。在这些高管中包括充电基础设施高级副总裁丽贝卡·特努奇和特斯拉的4680型号高级主管邦·埃格尔斯顿。罗翰·帕特尔的职责现在被分配给了政府关系和政策总监布鲁克·金茨、商业发展总监哈桑·纳扎和帕特里克·比恩。不要惊慌，组织结构图中没有阿肖克·埃拉斯瓦米或特斯拉机器人主管米兰·科瓦茨，但他们表示最近几个月自动驾驶部门的组织结构图对员工不可见，很可能是为了防止挖人行为。

One of the bigger changes though, Elon is now overseeing sales in North America, Europe, Middle East and Africa. Here you go, if you've been hoping for Elon to become more involved again in the company, here's our wartime CEO doing exactly that. Tesla's stock closed the day at $149.93 down 3.55% while the Nasdaq was down 0.52%. It was a normal volume day for Tesla trading about 2 million shares above the average volume the past 30 days. There were some government officials learning a bit about the Cybertruck and we also found out that yay apparently now has his Cybertruck.

然而，较大的变化之一是，埃隆现在负责北美、欧洲、中东和非洲地区的销售业务。如果你一直希望埃隆重新参与公司的工作，那么现在我们在这里看到我们的战时CEO正在做着同样的事情。特斯拉的股价收盘价为149.93美元，下跌了3.55%，而纳斯达克指数下跌了0.52%。这是特斯拉过去30天平均交易量的约2倍的正常交易量。一些政府官员了解了一些关于Cybertruck的信息，我们还发现了一个消息，似乎现在也有人拥有了他的Cybertruck。

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