Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis, quick shout out to my newest patrons, Tony and Cheryl N, Neil B and Philippe L. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. In a big win for the US, TSMC just agreed to increase its US investment by more than 60% to over $65 billion to produce the world's most advanced 2 nanometer chips in America. Our Commerce Secretary said for the first time ever, we'll be making at scale the most advanced semiconductor chips on the planet here in the US. These chips will underpin all AI demand. The investment will be the largest foreign direct investment in US history for a green field project. A green field project is basically just a brand new site compared to a brown field which would be effectively revamping an old site. 70% of TSMC's customers are US companies and this increased investment will put the US on track to produce around 20% of the world's leading edge chips by 2030.
Of these three TSMC factories, the first one will make four nanometer chips scheduled to begin production 2025. The second plant which was originally going to make three nanometer chips will now make two nanometer ones and then the third plant will also produce two nanometer chips as well as even more advanced semiconductors. Right now, TSMC makes its most advanced chips exclusively in Taiwan. The four nanometer process for AI training designed by NVIDIA used for applications like chat GPT and three nanometer processors for Apple phones. There are still going to be challenges with these factory buildouts, one being labor shortages and two the prolonged permitting that has already resulted in TSMC pushing back this factory by over a year.
Part of why this is so important since the US last built a green field leading edge manufacturing facility, TSMC has built 22 fabs in Taiwan. So these TSMC plants will be making semiconductors using between a two and four nanometer process for comparison the NVIDIA H100s that Tesla uses to train its FSD uses a four nanometer process. For years now there have been rumors that Tesla was going to be one of the first EV makers to request some of these four or five nanometer process chips from TSMC. Hardware 3 which is designed by Tesla but manufactured by Samsung mostly in Austin is on the 14 nanometer process and as far as we know hardware 4 is on the 7 nanometer process. As mentioned a previous report indicated Tesla plan to use TSMC's four nanometer tech to build hardware 4.
This was going to come from that Arizona plant but as we mentioned that was delayed by over a year. It's certainly going to take a few years for these plants to ramp up in Arizona but my point here is eventually Tesla will most likely be sourcing chips from this new US factory making their cars even more American made. The US will still be heavily reliant on Taiwan to bring over some of their talented engineers to get this Arizona site up and running but in the long run decoupling our reliance on Taiwan for these semiconductors is a major win for the US. Also if you're new to the channel generally speaking the lower the number for the nanometer process the more capable and the more efficient the chip actually is. Tesla charging posted a video saying they're down to four days from delivery to opening a site with pre-fabricated supercharger units or PSUs.
In the video they tell us up to 12 superchargers per truck as these are being delivered across North America and at least at the time of this video the largest pre-assembled site build to date was 76 superchargers. Cumulatively the count of these PSUs installed in North America is 2,300. Here's the design sketch for these PSUs and you can see that on the side of the cabinet is where the circuit breaker is with a Tesla site controller. So once these are delivered and dropped into place the conduit with the power for the site can actually be connected right here. The last update we got was roughly two years ago and at that time they were deploying 12 of these PSUs in roughly eight days at least for this one site. Rohan Patel said I think our average new site over the past year is now above 12 chargers per site and growing.
The unfortunate reality here is that some of these PSU locations are still waiting to be connected to the grid some for hundreds of days the two main culprits permitting and the interconnection queues. It's awesome that Tesla can do everything it can control in a matter of days but there's a portion of bringing these sites online that is out of Tesla's hands and that can oftentimes take months. Rohan actually just said interconnection timelines in some utility jurisdictions are ridiculous as are some permitting authorities.
Marco has reported Tesla is planning the new world's largest supercharger site in Yeeha Junction Florida. This would be a 200 stall mega site 160 PSUs and then 40 standalone stalls eight of which are for trailers. This Yeeha Junction is southeast of Orlando down toward Vero Beach. On that point Drew Baglino said I agree it may not make a difference in overall site timelines given permitting and utility but these prefab innovations fundamentally drive down cost per post deployed time equals money will continue integrating more prefab content including lighting in canopies and solar to bring more charging value at lower cost for our customers. If you've been around you've definitely heard me say I wish Tesla would build more supercharger locations with these canopies and solar they've talked about it for years but really have not deployed it at scale. It's nice to hear Drew mention it but personally I'm not getting my hopes up.
There was also a photo on Reddit of some new V4 dispensers going up in Houston Texas but sadly the word is the cabinets or the back end is still stuck at V3. Sure it's nice to have the V4 dispensers with the cables that are about three feet longer but the question remains when will we see the improved charging performance. There's plenty of speculation out there right now about what's going on with the Cybertruck battery pack from that Monroe teaser video we saw that it looks like the Cybertruck pack is roughly only half full from a vertical perspective. Wes one of the Cybertruck engineers did post about this saying I'd say it's half full quoting whole Mars saying the pack was half empty. Of course the speculation is that at some point in the future maybe when Tesla has more 4680 supply they could have a second layer of sales in this battery pack. I just want to say it does not take an engineer to point out that there could be other reasons Tesla has designed the pack in such a way. That said I have to say this is definitely something to keep an eye on in the months ahead.
Elon responded to this post from the technology brother that was showing the H100 GPU counts from different companies and Zuckerberg and meta being far out in the lead. However Elon said this is not accurate Tesla would be second highest and XXAI would be third if measured correctly. The public cloud cover is capacity rented from hyperscalers the private cloud is going to be owned and run by the company the national HPC is government owned and run. This chart has meta with over 350,000 H100 GPUs it then has Tesla with 10,000. So based on what Elon said in reality Tesla has at least 30,000 because he said Tesla would be in second if this chart was accurate and additionally X and XAI would be right behind Tesla putting lambda in fourth. The problem here is we don't know what Elon means when he said if measured correctly. Example we know Tesla has some A100s that were one of the predecessors to the H100s so are we including H100 equivalents. For what it's worth this account did have another chart showing the A100 GPU count once again meta was in first this time they had Tesla in second with 16,000 A100s. Again is Elon including Dojo in this response we just don't know.
Just a word of caution there is a lot of chatter out there about version 12 now being able to recognize human hand signals and there's a lot of testing being done I just want to say there's no guarantees this is a reliable function specifically the hand signals in a lot of these videos there's something else happening that the car could be responding to in this case the video on the screen it's the gentleman getting out of the way so just be careful with your testing out there at this point I'm pretty confident in saying version 12 is not reliably responding to hand signals we got the weekly Tesla China data for the first week of quarter two it came in at 1,900 comparing that to the first week of quarter one that number was 3,200 comparing to the first week of quarter two from last year that number was 6,973 meaning year over year we're down about 73% as you can see from the past three quarters the first week of each quarter has started off below 4,000 funny enough I went back and checked this was actually 1,000 for the first week of quarter four last year which ultimately turned out to be Tesla China's best quarter ever no I'm not saying I think that's going to happen here I'm just saying no need to overreact
we also got the breakdown for domestic versus export for Tesla China in March the domestic number was 62.4,000 meaning the export number was 26.7,000 as we've talked about looking at the key one total domestically we were down from quarter one of 2023 exports also down wholesale also down year over year on per reel jane's linkedin page who's the tech lead and manager for Tesla AI he said that as of March this year our end-to-end neural net based driving policy has been deployed to around 2 million vehicles in the US and the rest of the safety and autopilot software stack is running on 6 million plus vehicles globally translation Tesla's version 12 of fsd has now been deployed to 2 million vehicles in the US prior number that we were throwing around four paid customers was around 400,000 that's a nice 5x increase in the number of vehicles with Tesla's fsd version 12 so in the months ahead we'll see how that plays out
I also wanted to caution against using this number loosely even just 40 days from now because remember once this 30 day trial ends of v12 this number will most likely come back down maybe not all the way to 400,000 but it's not going to stay at 2 million either we got a conclusion to that wrongful death lawsuit against Tesla for that apple engineer turns out they settled the day before the trial was to begin unfortunately for us Tesla has filed to seal from public view the amount listed in the settlement agreement Tesla's attorneys did say they wanted the exact dollar amount of the settlement sealed because other potential claimants may perceive the settlement amount as evidence of Tesla's potential liability for losses which may have a chilling effect on settlement opportunity in subsequent cases there's already people speculating all Tesla settled because they knew they were going to lose the trial maybe but you could say the exact same thing for the other side in my opinion further speculation here is just foolish Tesla has already won two of these wrongful death lawsuits at trial it would have been nice to have a third but it's one more off the list for Tesla Elon just commented about the labor dispute that's been going on in Sweden dating back to October last year in a space on X he said the storm has passed on that front I think things are in reasonably good shape in Sweden to be clear the storm has passed does not mean they came to some collective agreement I'm just interpreting it to mean that all of the sympathy strikes that were thrown at Tesla they have successfully found workarounds for this sensational headline was going around saying that British Columbia has banned level three and higher autonomy this could be exhibit a of why I struggle sometimes with X and this headline only reading culture if you actually read the article it says this ban is unless authorized by the province the ban extends to driving a vehicle capable of autonomous driving at these level without the system engaged all this is really saying is that BC reserves the right to approve any of these level three or higher autonomous systems this ultimately just gives the power to the regulators to handle this how they see fit given that Tesla's FSD is technically level two nothing will change for them on this one I just wanted to clarify a post Elon made on X he said the investment in training compute gigantic data pipelines and vast video storage will be well over 10 billion dollars cumulatively this year he did say that's nothing compared to the quarter trillion dollars in cars on the road with Tesla designed AI inference computers being trained by their drivers however I saw some people out there interpreting this as Tesla was going to be spending 10 billion dollars on compute and data storage this year alone I do not believe that's the case I just think many people are totally missing this word cumulatively Elon told us late last year Tesla plans to spend over two billion dollars on AI training in 2023 and another two billion in 2024 specifically on computing for FSD training now it would be fair to say that a competitor would need to spend 10 billion dollars to get to Tesla's level strictly from a hardware data storage standpoint and that does not account for the six million robots on the road with that AI inference compute I absolutely think a time is coming in the 2030s when Tesla is spending 10 billion dollars per year on AI training hardware and data storage but we're just not there yet
On the cyber truck Drew Baglino said there was a bug that sometimes locked supercharger dispensers into 100 amps max when charging cyber trucks from very low states of charge the bug has been fixed they're piloting right now it'll be fully deployed next week he also said the cyber truck charge curve improvements are coming OTA later this quarter to unlock up to 154 miles recovered in 15 minutes I'll be honest I really don't like when people say things like how many miles you're going to get in how many minutes because it's so variable in the real world given the temperature and preconditioning and the chargers and how busy they are but given that there have been people disappointed with the 4680 charge curve specifically on the cyber truck good to hear that improvements are coming
Bloomberg had a positive article about Tesla titled their charging network has become a serious business plenty of things we already know but they did say Tesla has been installing around 13,000 superchargers per year for the last few years then based on a Bloomberg any F analysis they're saying if you apply a 10 target profit margin to the projected revenue you arrive at $740 million in 2030 earnings nearly three quarters of one billion dollars in earnings just from the supercharger network in 2030 just remember all forecasts are wrong it's just a matter of by how much but Tesla's services and other gross profit has been on a really nice uptrend for the past few years
In a separate article Bloomberg is predicting that bev penetration is likely to reach 25% in the United States by the end of the decade they also conducted a survey for brand retention and the latest findings 87% of Tesla customers are likely to choose another Tesla for their next car in second place was Lexus with 68% and in third place was Toyota with 54% highlighting that Martin Vieja said super high retention rate of Tesla buyers is an under appreciated point especially given around 90% of Tesla vehicles sold in 2023 were sold to people who never owned a Tesla before the replacement cycle has not even fully kicked in yet
The president of Argentina Javier Malay is planning to meet with Elon Musk at Gigatexis next Thursday Javier will already be coming to the States as he's set to receive an award in Florida no official word on what they plan to talk about although I believe that free speech will be at the top of the list Adam Jonas put out another Tesla stock note I just wanted to highlight their assumptions for the Tesla mobility model they're forecasting the beginning of this service by 2026 with 1000 units in operation by 2030 they're forecasting 157.5,000 units rising to 1.7 million by 2035 once again at this time we expect the vast majority of the Tesla mobility fleet to be human operated given those arguably low assumptions they're still valuing Tesla mobility at 61 dollars per share figured that was a nice segue to this if you go to the Tesla careers page and search for prototype vehicle operator you will find many different listings across the United States there are 15 listings in total in 12 different states one listing for Miami Florida the prototype vehicle operator role is responsible for capturing high quality data that will contribute to the improvement of our vehicle's self driving performance this person will operate a vehicle in a designated area for data collection and they'll provide feedback on how they can improve the data collection process as far as we know these jobs were added within the past week the question now becomes is Tesla really going to put the prototype robotaxi out in the public for testing part of me says there's no way Tesla would put the robotaxi out on the streets before the unveil in August to do some of this testing another part of me realizes they already have other job listings that just say vehicle operator separately Tesla's also hiring for eight ass test specialists so the prototype distinction is definitely worth noting as we've seen with the Cybertruck Tesla can't just port the hardware from the sexy lineup over to these new vehicles with different designs and expect things to run smoothly right out of the gate they need to collect new data with the new camera setup so it's unclear exactly what these job listings will be but exciting nonetheless
Cruz just said they plan to resume manual driving to create maps and gather road information in select cities starting in Phoenix this will help inform where they ultimately resume driverless operations they also said because no two cities are the same we plan to conduct this manual and supervise driving in multiple cities this is not great news for Cruz if you remember Cruz actually launched in Phoenix back in 2022 so with this it's effectively like they're starting over from ground zero it's also perplexing why they wouldn't just say they eventually plan to go driverless again in Phoenix why would they map that entire city if that's not part of their plan
Lucid announced their key one results they produced 1.7000 and delivered at 1.9000 during the period it's not by much but this was Lucid's highest delivery quarter ever the expectation for the quarter was about 1.7000 it is however a different case on the production side as the expectation was 2.1 000 units produced remember Lucid did cut prices by up to 10% back in February
we all know this to be true but it's great to hear rohan said every tesla leader has gotten emails from elon with solely a forward of an ex post that has a good suggestion from one of us if for some reason you needed it this is official confirmation that tesla's leadership team is actively looking for good feedback
over on x the hummer ev2 which was supposed to be the base entry model has effectively been canceled for now i'd say this is a rumor but they're saying there will be no two model the entry level one for the 2025 model year byd is planning to launch the second generation of its blade battery later this year potentially as soon as august they're touting energy density of 190 watt hours per kilogram which would be up from the current 150 watt hours per kilogram roughly a 27 percent improvement they're also saying it'll have a smaller size and a lighter weight and it will reduce the power consumption
we know some model wise have come off the production line at giga Berlin with the first generation of the blade battery so we'll see if tesla adopts gen 2 the financial times has said that port and car industry execs are saying there's been a pile up of chinese evs that are effectively turning these european ports into car parks car makers in general are struggling to order trucks because of the lack of drivers and equipment to move the vehicles on the word is all major car ports were struggling with congestion industry execs are saying chinese car makers were not selling their vehicles in europe as fast as they expected some chinese brand evs had been sitting in european ports for up to 18 months while some ports had asked importers to provide proof of onward transport describing the situation they've said it's chaos for what it's worth china's minister of commerce has said the accusations of overcapacity were groundless many of the chinese groups were building teams in europe from scratch and grappling with real world logistical challenges as newcomers come to the market they've struggled to find hollage companies to prioritize their orders lack of trucks is a very common problem and they said many vehicles had been reserved by tesla any new brand will be facing this issue if you don't have scale if you don't have regular deliveries then you're not the trucking group's largest clients
rivian has officially shut down production in normal as of april fifth this will last to april thirtieth four line upgrades marylin just decided it will require utilities to allow evs with bidirectional chargers to connect to the distribution grid after new legislation just passed the act also enables the creation of distributed energy resources think vpp once it's signed the public service commission will be required on may first 2025 to put forward new regulations that will allow evs to inject energy into the grid this makes marylin the first state in the nation to adopt such legislation
meanwhile the new vpp legislation which comes into effect later this decade brings maryland on par with the vpp leaders like california texas and massachusetts also from energy storage news they're saying over the past six months the noise that battery storage systems make has become a bit of a concern the director of an energy storage company has said in the last six months noise has exploded as a concern one of our team just toward a dozen customers in europe and every single one brought up concerns about noise and what we're doing to mitigate it one year ago nobody asked the first customers i recall bringing it up we're in australia but now it's a global thing everyone is focusing on it the noise is typically from thermal management specifically the cooling systems and in places like europe where there's higher density of population apparently it can be a bit more of a problem
an appeals court just upheld the epa's decision to give california a waiver to set its own tailpape emissions limits and ev requirements republicans had argued the rules gave california an unconstitutional regulatory power denied to other states the court rejected that argument and said reversing the epa decision would address only injury if auto makers responded by selling fewer evs or by lowering prices of gas powered models and said there was no evidence to support that conclusion thus california still has the right to set its own regulations which is more important than you may think because many other us states just follow what california does
tessel stock closed the day at 176 dollars 88 cents up 2.25 percent while the nazdak was up 0.32 percent it was an average volume day for tesla trading about 5 million shares above the average volume the past 30 days hope you guys have a wonderful day please like the video if you did you can find me on x linked below and a huge thank you to all of my patreon supporters you