Welcome to Electrified. It's your host Dylan Loomis, Cookshadak to my new or updated patrons, Phil V in John A. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. It was a pretty crazy day for Tesla today. We are going to start with this Reuters article because it lays the foundation for everything else that happened later in the day. Before we do though, Elon replied to a post that said Tesla scraps, low cost car plans that was from Reuters. Elon said Reuters is lying again. There were however, multiple claims in this Reuters article. So were they lying about all of them, one of them, some of them? Unfortunately, we're not going to know for sure. But the way I am interpreting everything is that Tesla has not canceled the $25,000 car that will have a steering wheel, AKA the non-Robotaxi variants on this next gen platform. That was the main message of this article from Reuters that they canceled that version and Tesla will continue developing self-driving Robotaxis on that same platform. Just so you know, Reuters did not take the article down. The only thing they actually did was add in what Elon posted on X, saying he did not identify any specific inaccuracies. Reuters said Elon's directive was to go all in on Robotaxi. That checks out. They talked about a meeting that happened in late February, where some of the employees learned of Tesla's plans to scrap the model two car. Another source said Robotaxis would be produced, but in much lower volume, then had been projected for the model too.Reuters mentioned company messages from March 1st, where program managers told the engineering staff to hold off on telling suppliers about the program cancellation. One source did express some optimism about Elon's shifting focus or priority to the Robotaxi, but they did caution Tesla's product plans could change based on economic conditions. And another message on March 1st said that suppliers should halt all further activities related to those code names. Both being for the model too, I know that's not the name, but we'll just use it for now. Reuters also shared some messages that were supposedly from Tesla's management, thanking the engineering staff for all of their work on the model two project, telling them to document everything they've learned, even though the project wasn't going forward. The messages showed meetings on the affordable car project being cancelled. The two sources said some engineers have been reassigned.
Finally, I do think it's worth mentioning the rest of the article didn't have anything to do with the next gen platform. It really was all negative, whether it was lawsuits or delays, anything negative about the company. It really did read like more of a hit piece than just reporting the facts. Sawyer said Tesla's low cost $25,000 car and the Robotaxi were always going to be based on the same platform. They were going to be very similar, but the $25,000 version was going to have a steering wheel. Maybe Elon and the team have been so impressed with how good version 12 has performed and were maybe thinking they should be shifting even more resources to the Robotaxi FSD effort. This does not mean the $25,000 car is cancelled. Again, they share the same platform.
I think most of us already knew that to be the case, but I shared it because Elon did reply to that post with the eyes emoji. Also of note was Kathy would quote posting what Sawyer said saying our thoughts exactly and then she tagged to the arc team. Then reading a bit between the lines here, we have Elon liking this post from Brett Winton from Arc. In that post, Brett said any prioritization of the Robotaxi program should be read as a massive positive for Tesla that the stock sold off so severely on a Reuters story reporting on the same indicates how profoundly existing holders misunderstand Tesla's future value. Just a few quick thoughts.
First, yes, it would be great to have more information from Elon on what specifically Reuters was actually lying about. The problem is he's not going to share too much information because he doesn't want to forecast to the rest of the industry exactly what Tesla's plans are. So I'm totally with you. I think we should have got a bit more clarity, but at the same time, I understand he doesn't want to give too much away. On the Reuters side, I just want to say there's a difference between outright fabrication of communication at Tesla and just misinterpreting that communication at Tesla in the wrong way. Those are very different things. Had Reuters actually done the former, that would be opening them up to a ton of legal liability. So don't misinterpret what I'm saying. I'm not at all trying to defend Reuters. I'm just saying there's at least a chance they were just misinterpreting any communication that they had seen from Tesla. We also have to understand that basically since 2022, Elon has been pushing for Robotaxi only as he has said, if they figure out autonomy, it's going to render that model too or the $25,000 car irrelevant. So now that Tesla is closer than ever to solving autonomy, it would make sense t
hat Elon is diverting more attention, more resources to the Robotaxi and any communication about that could somewhat easily be misinterpreted. Sadly, even if Reuters was fabricating communications, I'm not sure Tesla would go after them legally because then most likely a lot of their communications would become public through discovery. Might not be worth it for Tesla. And yes, obviously Tesla prioritizing the Robotaxi can be read as a bullish signal for Tesla feeling like it will have solved autonomy by the time this platform launches late next year. But to add some nuance to the conversation, Wall Street has a large portion of its future Tesla volume estimates dependent upon the $25,000 Tesla. The $25,000 variant is a huge part of their models and Tesla's volume growth and expansion into other major areas is largely dependent on that vehicle.
Even if that volume gets adjusted down slightly and not going all the way to zero, Tesla stock will probably react negatively in the near term, not only due to volume revisions, but due to the uncertainty with this Robotaxi. What does the regulation look like state by state? How about outside of America? How is Tesla going to handle the liability? How about the model itself? Is Tesla just going to keep the Robotaxis for the company and operate this Robotaxi fleet in house? Are they actually going to sell them to customers for whatever the price ultimately is? For customers to use themselves and or put on a Tesla operated network. I could go on, but the point is this brings an entirely new level of uncertainty for Wall Street looking at Tesla's future. And we have to be grounded in reality in that Tesla has not yet solved for Robotaxis. Yes, it looks very promising projecting where they could be in 12 months, but there are no guarantees here.
Then you layer in the public's acceptance or not of Robotaxis. And my point is that Tesla stock may not react how you'd expect it to in the short term. Tesla and Elon have vacillated on this next gen platform for years and will probably continue to to some degree until it's actually here as things continue to change with progress on FSD and the economy.
And then on a day with all of this uncertainty about Tesla's next gen platform and where the company is headed, Elon decides to post Tesla Robotaxi unveil on August 8th. I'm guessing there's at least a chance Elon was not planning on posting this when he woke up today, nor that this date was even set in stone at Tesla before all of this unfolded with Reuters.
I also find it interesting we're getting the Robotaxi unveil, but he didn't say anything about the next gen platform he just focused on the Robotaxi. It's 125 days away and I'm assuming in the weeks ahead we'll get more information and I would imagine that people will be able to attend this event. Who knows what level of detail we will get at this event? Will they tell us about price? Will they tell us anything about how the network's going to operate?
What I do know is we have to remember Tesla has far more data than any of us. They have all of the future FSD revisions that we have not yet been able to see. So to everybody saying Tesla's FSD is nowhere near ready for a Robotaxi, thank you we know, but the point is this platform won't launch until late 2025, probably at the earliest things could be very different by then.
It also does make logical sense that if Tesla was not confident about solving for FSD on the timeline needed they would maybe shift their focus to the more affordable vehicle. Overall I think most signs point to Tesla and the FSD team post from Ashok and others confirming that they are in the phase of pushing for this final leg of solving true autonomy.
And don't forget at the end of the day this next gen platform is going to give Tesla optionality to pivot if it needs to. Let's just say hypothetically things don't go well and they don't solve for autonomy by the end of next year, they can still make the more affordable vehicle on that platform.
Sawyer said the number 8 is considered the luckiest number in Chinese culture, it's associated with wealth, prosperity and success, Elon responded 8-8 and the year of the dragon. In my opinion Tesla has proven over the past decade plus that they do actually know what they're doing. Now sure they don't get every little thing right but the big, the real mission critical things they have always gotten right, I trust them to do the same this time around.
There are a lot of signs out there right now that are pointing to Tesla's business being drastically different just a short 17 or 18 months from now. Joe Tett-Mayer shared some photos of a gigatex's drone flyover showing us multiple quick silver model-wise. Now sure this might be nothing but then the question becomes what exactly is going on here.
This weekend April 5th through the 7th, Tesla is going to be towing around what they're calling a mobile gallery with the Cybertruck hitting some different hotspots. Here it is at the Lincoln Center showing off not only the Cybertruck but the world's best selling car. Go ahead and pause as the full route is on the screen in case you're interested.
Here's a good data point to keep in the back of your mind when you talk to other folks, Tesla said in 2023 over 1 million Tesla owners in the US used charged stats with an estimated average of $1,200 in gas savings per owner. That being for the year. In Fort Lauderdale there was a piece of a crane that fell from the sky and landed on this gentleman's Tesla. He as you can see walked away totally fine.
To that post Elon replied safety is Tesla's top priority. I will never stop repeating this message even though most of us already know because most of the public still does not view Tesla in that light. They still talk about vehicle fires and not at all that Tesla would actually be concerned with safety being the top priority and then you add in FSD to the mix and everybody thinking Tesla is putting the public in jeopardy with their testing but the actual opposite is true.
Tesla is facing a new proposed class action lawsuit accusing Tesla of a slew of wage law violations against factory and warehouse workers in California. Two former employees have filed and they're seeking more than $5 million in damages on behalf of thousands of Tesla workers. They're claiming Tesla violated various labor laws including failing to pay overtime, failing to provide meals and rest breaks, not providing paid sick leave or reimbursing employees for work related expenses and failing to provide written descriptions of quotas that workers were required to meet.
Back in 2022 the boring company had filed for this project in Austin dubbed the Colorado River Connector Tunnel. It was to be a private access tunnel along with associated improvements at Tesla Road. Thanks to this recent video from Jeff Roberts we can see that ProFrock 3 has begun to dig at Gigatexis. It's going to go below the main access highway and the word is the digging will take 2-4 weeks. Ultimately they're saying the tunnel will serve as a private transportation for vehicles exiting production to head over to an outbound logistics lot. Perhaps these cars can drive themselves over there when the tunnel is done.
I saw Gregor truck point this out on the Cybertruck order page you can see that the estimated available dates have been bumped back to 2025 for all three variants. This of course would be for people that are placing new orders as of today. So if I wanted to be that guy I could have titled this video Cybertruck sold out through 2024.
Just so you know I did see and read the latest Adam Jonas note on Tesla stock but I'm not going to dive into it because the entire note was effectively hypothesizing what would happen to Tesla stock if they do indeed cancel the model too. Given that that's likely not the case I don't think it's worth it but if you're interested I'll throw it up on the next screen go ahead and pause.
Sawyer said Tesla is once again allowing free FSD transfers on new model 3 YS and X deliveries. The transfer is stackable with inventory adjustments and all other existing incentives. Trade-in of the existing VIN with FSD is not required. Given that Tesla and Polestar have decided to withdraw from the FCAI over in Australia that means their new car sales data is also now going to be harder to come by. Polestar has already and Tesla will by the end of this year see supplying new vehicle sales for the industry's VFACs reporting service as momentum gathers for an independent government body to take over this role.
Many in the industry are calling on the federal government in Australia to publish a transparent free public record of new vehicle sales when NVES begins next year to ensure the integrity of the standard. As we've talked about the NVES is the new vehicle efficiency standard. This is one of my favorite charts from Roland on X. It shows us Tesla sales for quarter one with the year over year change by different country. The three biggest markets for Tesla this year, Germany, the UK and France are all down year over year for quarter one, 37%, 12%, 11% respectively. But thanks to Tesla being up 62% year over year in Belgium, up 53% in the Netherlands and up 72% in Spain. Overall Tesla is only slightly down year over year across all of Europe.
许多行业人士呼吁澳大利亚联邦政府在下一年NVES开始时发布透明的免费公开记录,以确保标准的完整性。正如我们所讨论的,NVES是新车辆能效标准。这是Roland on X中我最喜欢的图表之一。它向我们展示了特斯拉第一季度的销售额,以及不同国家的同比变化。今年特斯拉的三个最大市场,德国、英国和法国,第一季度的同比销售分别下降了37%、12%和11%。但多亏了比利时同比增长了62%,在荷兰同比增长了53%,在西班牙同比增长了72%,总体而言,特斯拉在整个欧洲同比下降幅度仅略微增加。
Tesla AI just posted that Tesla has hit over one billion with a B miles driven on FSD. Just for some quick context, the latest data we have from Waymo has them with around 20 million with an M cumulative miles driven. If you go back to Tesla's master plan, part de you'll find something interesting. Tesla said we expect that worldwide regulatory approval will require something on the order of 6 billion miles. I think what's more important here if you look at where Tesla was for 500 million miles, that would fall roughly November of last year. That means in about 4 or 5 months Tesla went from 500 million to 1 billion so they're doing roughly 500 million miles every 4 or 5 months. However, as you can see that number is not going to be static, that rate will continue to increase as the adoption grows. That also means Tesla should comfortably be doing over 1 billion miles every year on FSD. Remember that quote Elon had about he couldn't see second place in autonomy even if he had a telescope? Well, here you go.
Porsche said they're already working on the next generation of the Porsche Ticon and they said there may be an evolution of the platform that it's built on. Of course they're looking to achieve greater range and they were asked if solid state batteries were part of the plan they said we've been working on it but giving a time frame when it's ready, it's way too early, it's not ready in one or two years, it's coming but it'll take time. Another data point solid state won't be here most likely until near the end of the decade. Apple is laying off over 600 employees in California, most likely related to their decision to shut down their autonomous car project. In an anti-trust lawsuit, the US Department of Justice is claiming the next gen of Apple's carplay will force an iPhone centric experience. They're claiming Apple enforces its dominance by forcing one unified display experience across every available interface in the vehicle through carplay, among other allegedly anti-competitive practices. Just another small reason it's nice that Tesla has its own software to build upon.
Tesla stock closed the day at $164.90 down 3.63% while the NASDAQ was up 1.24%. After hours though, after Elon made that post about the Robotaxi on-vale, Tesla stock is up 3.64%.
As one would expect on as crazy of a day as it was for Tesla, it was a high volume day, trading about 47 million shares above the average volume the past 30 days. That's the highest volume we've seen in at least the past few weeks.
Hope you guys have a wonderful and a safe weekend. Please like the video if you did. You can find me on X-linked below, and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.