In this case street criticism is warranted. Hey look I mean for the long term like in terms of the actual opportunity for EV for full self-driving for autonomous that's still there but let's just call it get in this is no smoke and mirror. I mean if you hooked up train wreck in the dictionary you'd see a picture of Hessel's 1-Q quarter. Welcome to electrified it's your host Dylan Loomis. So Tesla's Q1 numbers 386.8000 deliveries 433.4 thousand produced.
Flat out it's a bad quarter even worse than anyone was expecting. I'm not sure who needs to hear this but companies have bad quarters even Tesla. Keyword here Tesla said the decline in volumes was partially due to the updated model 3 switch over at Fremont the Red Sea conflict and the arson attack at Gigabirlin. It just seems like too many people out there are trying to make this a binary problem either it was a supply problem throughout the quarter or it's because Tesla's demand is cratering. The real answer is somewhere in between.
Yes the supply disruption in quarter one was very real and Tesla may actually deserve some of the blame for this model 3 change over not happening as fast as it could have. But even Tesla is admitting that's not the whole story. I thought it was funny Tesla's sugar coating tossing in Q1 highest best deployments to date. Tesla's Q1 of last year 422.9 thousand deliveries 440.8000 produced. Tesla's Q1 earnings will be April 23rd and it will be live streamed on X. It will most likely also be on YouTube as well.
是的,第一季度的供应中断确实是非常真实的,特斯拉可能确实应该为 Model 3 转换未能尽快实现承担责任。但即使特斯拉也承认这并不是所有的故事。我觉得有趣的是特斯拉在第一季度将最高最佳部署的数字增加了进去。去年第一季度,特斯拉交付了422.9万辆车,生产了440.8万辆车。特斯拉的第一季度收益将于4月23日公布,并且将通过 X 进行直播。很可能也会在 YouTube 上播出。
I'm gonna try not to belabor many points here as I am of the camp that we need to de-emphasize the importance of these production and delivery reports every quarter. As a long-term investor the truth is we just don't need the detailed analysis we have about these P&D reports but we have it and there's a few points I want to touch on. These results mean Tesla delivered over 36,000 deliveries less than quarter one of 2023 down 8% year over year down 20% quarter over quarter.
The gap between production and deliveries was bigger than is standard for Tesla. The problem is we don't know how many of these vehicles are going to inventory and how many are just in transit not yet arriving to their customer. Given the fact that Tesla did not cut prices they actually hiked prices in multiple geographies and there was no quarter end delivery push no email from Elon like we usually see that could be interpreted as a semi bullish thing. AKA most of these 46.6000 vehicles should actually be delivered in quarter two and they're already on the way.
This also provides a great reminder that we do not have as much insight into Tesla as a company as we think that we do. Yes we can track ships and registration numbers and aggregate it from around the world but at the end of the day there's still a large amount of Tesla's operating activity that is totally opaque. Honestly shout out to Troy because he always faces so much backlash from people saying that he's too bearish and I think the truth of the matter is most of these Wall Street analysts just watch what Troy is doing and then piggyback off of his data. That's just another reason why these Wall Street expectations are mostly a joke because they don't update their numbers throughout the quarter and then when they do they're again most likely just double checking where Troy is at and then using that as a benchmark.
I just think it needed reiteration that these Wall Street forecasts are ultimately a joke and the fact that so many Tesla investors put so much stock in whether Tesla comes above or below those expectations really doesn't make any sense. Obviously I understand Wall Street has the money that mostly moves Tesla stock in the short term but that's totally disconnected from Tesla the company and the fundamentals of the business long term. The big question is will these problems persist into quarter two when you look at the Model 3 plus change over in Fremont that's still only about 60% of capacity so better than it was in Q1 but not back to 100%.
What I haven't seen anybody talking about is the implications this has for the Model Y refresh because let's not forget we have four different factories that are going to have to be retooled for the Model Y. That's compared to only two for the Model 3 plus and Tesla has been struggling with that so we could assume that the Model Y switch over at least in Fremont also may be challenging. At least to some degree the Red Sea disruptions are still taking place just two weeks ago we had another so there's a chance only one of those three problems is actually a one-off one-quarter problem with two persisting into the future.
We should get a lot more detail on the Q1 call but I think there's a chance we don't have more clarity about how bad things actually are for Tesla until quarter two. If in quarter two Tesla beats expectations fairly significantly because they're starting off the quarter with a 46.5 thousand unit head start then maybe we're back on track for doing around two million for the year and yes for full be EVs for BYD in quarter one they were down about 40 quarter over quarter but they were still up 13 percent year over year. You can blame China's economic situation for a slowdown in Tesla and BYD sales but to argue it's a one-off event just isn't accurate because economic cycles are a fact of markets that are not going away. Maybe this can provide you a bit of solace when it comes to pure be EV sales in quarter one Tesla outpaced BYD by 29 percent. For all we know BYD may internally be prioritizing hybrids but at least for this quarter Tesla has the crown back for the most full EV sales globally.
To be clear it's true that Tesla's days of supply will most likely now jump from around 16 to between 25 and 30 but it's also true that most of those cars will be delivered in quarter two and the industry average for days of supply still sits around 60 Tesla would still even after the jump be on the very low side and although Tesla stock held up very well today given the overall market in the next few days we'll most likely see some analysts go back adjust their models and then we'll see what happens then. All year on the channel we've been saying there may be more pain ahead for Tesla prepare for a rough year for Tesla. Here we are this really shouldn't be a surprise. It's not as relevant now but the weekly China data came in for Tesla at 17.3 thousand comparing it to the same weekend quarter for that number was 15.8 thousand. Thus for domestic China sales for quarter one Tesla ended up down 2.5 percent compared to quarter one last year.
We also got the Tesla China wholesale figure for March which came in at 89,064 so totaling up the wholesale figures for quarter one this year compared to quarter one 2023 Tesla was down 3.7 percent for this year. I saw a few questions out there about Tesla's inventory one of the only trackers that are left is Tesla-info.com I'll have it linked below just know that these numbers are not Tesla's total number of inventory this will just be the number of listings and then remember Tesla may have 5-10 vehicles of that one vehicle listing. Thus in my opinion this should really only be looked at to look at trends of inventory not actual numbers. Look respectfully if you're somebody that thinks Tesla's management should be overthrown because they had one bad quarter I would say do not let your emotions into your investing. In my opinion that's just an absurd take that's really not even worth refuting. As Elon said by stock in several companies that make products and services that you believe in only sell if you think their products and services are trending worse don't panic when the market does this will serve you well in the long term.
This one is just a rumor from Chris saying for now he said Elon's holding a meeting tonight to determine the financial report for quarter one 2027 and sales are caused by a certain quarter in 2021. This weekend we had the end of an era. FSD is now no longer beta will now be calling it supervised. Back in Master Plan Part 2 Elon said once we get to the point where autopilot is about 10 times safer than the US vehicle average the beta label will be removed. I am of the camp that FSD won't materially move Tesla's stock price until Tesla takes more responsibility or can decrease the nag. As impressive as version 12 is for me and I think many people it's not worth 12,000 dollars given the level of supervision required and the frequency of the nags are definitely part of that. And if I can't transfer that FSD to a new car then I'm way more likely to just opt for the subscription. I know a lot of these new users on the trial are sharing glowing reviews of version 12 but that's a different thing than ponying up the money for the software. At least for me with version 12.3.2.1 it's still far too hesitant at stop signs and red lights and I find myself constantly using the accelerator to get it to move and or get up to speed. The auto speed definitely needs adjustment as even after manually accelerating to my desired speed. The second I let off FSD will then slow down to whatever it wants to.
On the bullish side a show said yesterday it is the beginning of the end so naturally everybody started wondering what did he see internally at Tesla presumably when it comes to full self driving progress. Holmarsh shared a positive post talking about ride sharing with FSD and Elon said a lot of work between here and there but it can be done here. Elon most likely talking about solving for true autonomy. Elon also said most people still have no idea how crushingly good Tesla FSD will get. It'll be superhuman to such a degree that it'll seem strange in the future that humans drove cars even while exhausted and drunk. Cars will take you where you want automatically just like getting in an elevator and pressing a button something that also used to be manual.
For you Canadians, Rohan Patel said the FSD subscription in Canada will be ready before the 30 day trial ends. When it comes to prioritizing paid FSD customers, Rohan Patel also chimed in saying that there's a group of SNX customers who have a different hardware which is what the Tesla AI team is trying to validate but they did not give any timeline. He said the team was working on it even on Easter Sunday. I'd also put this one in the rumor category but Chris saying also said the next gen platforms of China's two leading 8-ass brands have turned to pure vision may retain a LiDAR transition with greatly weakened performance. They've been watching Tesla closely, now they're going to try to copy Tesla.
The EPA has released its final ruling that they're calling Phase 3, this one applies to heavy-duty vehicles, aka trucking. It sets stronger standards to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from heavy-duty vehicles beginning in model year 2027. The actual document itself is 1,155 pages but on page 39 you'll find this table. Most importantly they say the standards do not mandate the use of a specific technology and EPA anticipates a compliant fleet under the standards would include a diverse range of motor vehicle technologies.
This could be outdated but they did say Tesla alone intends to produce 50,000 BEV Class 8 daycabs for model year 2024. In the administration's press release they said heavy-duty vehicles account for 25% of all greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector which is itself the single largest source of emissions in the US. This ad tracking company, MediaRadar, is estimating Tesla spent about $6.4 million on digital advertising in 2023. The majority of Tesla's ad spending has gone to YouTube. For comparison GM spent $3.6 billion on advertising in 2023.
这可能已经过时,但他们说特斯拉独自计划在2024年生产5万辆BEV Class 8卡车。在政府的新闻发布中,他们表示重型车辆占美国运输行业所有温室气体排放的25%,这本身就是美国最大的排放来源。这家广告跟踪公司MediaRadar估计,特斯拉在2023年在数字广告上花费约640万美元。特斯拉大部分的广告花费用在了YouTube平台上。相比之下,通用汽车在2023年花费了36亿美元用于广告。
It would be great if Tesla's products sold themselves on their own to the early majority but at this point it's plain as day that given all of the dis and misinformation about Tesla and electric vehicles over the years. Until Tesla rolls out that more affordable platform they have to go on a marketing blitz to try to educate the public and reprogram them to understand the benefits of EVs. On March 29th Tesla said they produced their 6 millionth car. You only have to go back to September 16th last year to when they said they produced their 5 millionth car. That's a gap of 6 months and 14 days to produce 1 million vehicles. Tesla did follow through raising the price of all Model Y trims by $1,000 on April 1st. For 2023 UAW membership was down 3.3% to 370,000 members the lowest mark since 2009.
But they're still fighting as they plan to file a petition looking to set up an official union vote at a Mercedes plant in Alabama. Tesla has updated the referral program now as the referrer you only get 7500 credits for the Model S X and Y. The energy products are also down to 9,000 credits each. As a buyer it's back to just getting 3 months of FSD for free. The one-year premium connectivity is now gone. Tesla boosted its headcount by 86% last year to 22.8,000 employees at Gigatexas. As the Governor Greg Abbott shared Tesla is now the largest private employer in Austin. They're saying eventually Tesla's lithium refinery in Corpus Christi will employ 162 workers. Rohan Patel shared a long post on X talking about many of the things that Tesla has done for and in Texas.
但他们仍在努力,计划在阿拉巴马州的梅赛德斯工厂提起诉讼,以设立官方工会投票。特斯拉现在已更新推荐计划,推荐人只能获得Model S X和Y车型7500积分。能源产品也降至每款9000积分。作为购买者,现在只能免费获得3个月的全自动驾驶功能。一年的高级连接服务已经取消。特斯拉去年将吉加德拉斯的员工人数增加了86%,达到22.8万人。据得克萨斯州州长格雷格·阿伯特分享,特斯拉现在是奥斯汀最大的私人雇主。他们称特斯拉在科珠克里斯蒂的锂矿加工厂最终将雇佣162名工人。Rohan Patel在X上发表了一篇长文,探讨特斯拉为得克萨斯州做了许多事情。
Much of it is stuff that we've covered on the channel in the past but in case I'll throw it up on the screen and pause and read if you'd like. There was a poll conducted at the end of March this year of about 1600 people and here are those results. Only 46% of adults think EVs are better for the environment. 19% of people actually think gas cars are better for the environment. Only 15% think EVs are safer to operate. 39% said gas cars are safer. And one of the most frustrating things about electric vehicles is the weaponization of them when it comes to politics. You can see the major discrepancy between Republicans and Democrats.
Mary Barra said many times this was the year that GM's Altium platform would finally scale. Q1 has come and gone and that's definitely not the case. For Q1, GM sold 16.4,000 EVs in the US down from 20,000 in Q1 last year. The only GM EV to show some signs of life in Q1 was the Cadillac Lyric at 5,800 units for the quarter up from 968 Q1 last year. The Blazer EV 600 units for the quarter. Silverado EV 1061 Hummer EV 1600 and the Chevy Bolt which is being phased out is down to 7,000 from 19.7,000 Q1 of last year.
James Downma had a chat with Farzod and Hans and I just had to share this one part because there's a lot of people saying that Tesla will never solve level 5 autonomy without upgrading the hardware. But I'm not so sure. Here's a simple explanation of what James was talking about when it comes to hardware 3 for Tesla it's built of CPUs, GPUs and neural net processing units. The latter, the NNPUs are 100 times faster than the GPUs and the GPUs are 100 times faster than the CPUs. With FSD version 11 primarily those 300 plus 1000 lines of C++ code were running on or being processed by the CPUs, effectively the weakest part of hardware 3.
Now that all of those lines of code are gone and Tesla is video in, that's primarily processed by the NNPUs and the GPUs, the more powerful parts of hardware 3. Simply put, version 12 is now much more optimized for Tesla's hardware 3 and James was saying that hardware 3 is not some old rickety thing that needs replaced. It's actually a lot more powerful than most people give it credit for. James always provides so much great insight so the full video will be linked below if you missed it. On X, Elon did say hardware 4 will ultimately be better than hardware 3 but all training is for hardware 3 right now with hardware 4 running in emulation mode.
So hardware 4 hasn't really been called up to the plate officially just yet. For quarter 1, Rivian produced 13.9000 vehicles and delivered 13.6000 in quarter 1 of last year Rivian produced 9.4000 and delivered 7.9000. Rivian's production guidance for 2024 is unchanged at 57000. There was an article talking about how Aurora trucking is planning to have its autonomous trucks without a driver later this year but the article also said this. Driverless passenger vehicles and trucks can ride anywhere in the US unless a state explicitly says they can't. That means companies can test and operate their vehicles across most of the country. 24 states including Texas, Florida, Arizona and Nevada specifically allow driverless operations while another 16 states have no regulations specific to autonomous vehicles.
The remaining 10 including California, Massachusetts and New York place limits on autonomous vehicles within their borders. The drum beat for the Model 3 Ludacris is picking up Tesla apparently hosted an event in Malibu over the weekend and many big name social media folks were there. There's a chance the Model 3 Ludacris is unveiled this month if not sometime in the next week. The rumor right now is a 0-60 time of 2.9 seconds. I have to admit this car is really speaking to me right now. Across Europe their battery storage deployments for 2023 were over 10 gigawatts which was more than double the 4.5 gigawatts deployed in 2022. More importantly the regulators are becoming more vocal about removing barriers to battery storage.
Across the EU they're working on this electricity market design reform which is going to create targets for energy storage and these EU nations can then introduce support schemes to get to those targets. This is very different from the current situation where only a handful of states like Spain and Italy have strategies around storage. Tesla said the three largest operational battery storage systems in Europe by capacity are operating with Tesla megapacks and auto-bitter. Monroe Live just popped the top off the Cybertruck battery pack giving us a sneak peek at these 4680 cells in the structural pack. Tesla stock closed the day at $166.63 down 4.9% while the Nasdaq was down 0.95%. It was a higher volume day for Tesla trading about 20 million shares above the average volume the past 30 days.
One of two things happened today with Tesla stock. Either the whisper number for Tesla's Q1 deliveries was actually lower than people were expecting and thus a lot of this Q1 miss was already baked into Tesla stock or the analysts are going to take a few days to adjust their models and we see a further selloff in the weeks ahead. Either way we most likely don't get any more clarity until the Q1 call on the 23rd.
It may be worth reading what Jensen has said about Nvidia when its stock has 80% drawdowns. Hope you guys have a wonderful day. Please like the video if you did. You can find me on X linked below and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.