Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis, so not only will all new Tesla car purchases for the Model Y, S, and X now come with one month of free full self-driving, Elon also said all US cars that are capable of FSD will be enabled for a one month trial this week. I think it's pretty interesting that just last week Elon said for the first time Tesla is no longer compute constrained when it comes to training FSD, now we get all of these new incentives for free trials of FSD. So not only can Tesla now better take advantage of new data from new users trying out FSD, but they think it's good enough and smooth enough to roll out to all customers. In the US and hopefully soon after in Canada, it seems like a lot of people are making this out to be a move about Tesla making more money or selling more cars and sure those are going to be secondary benefits, the primary focus here as it has always been is solving FSD true autonomy as fast as possible.
In my opinion, that's exactly why the pricing is what it is, we'll touch on that shortly. According to Tesla's scope, version 12.3.2 has now been added to the 2024.2 branch, this is being tested by employees right now and they're expecting a full release in April, this is also how the factory builds or customers taking new deliveries will have access to FSD on the lot to do those demo drives. When you buy a Tesla right away, you have to drive for between 50 and 100 miles to calibrate the cameras for autopilot and the word is Tesla has been prototyping a solution for this now for two years. Obviously it's not realistic for a customer to go pick up their Tesla and then drive around for 50 plus miles with the sales rep until the cameras are calibrated to then do their FSD test. But Elon did just say on X Tesla still needs to trim down the time for camera calibration. We're about to find out here in the coming weeks if Tesla has a solution for this ready. Tesla scope has said there's a 30% chance Canada gets version 12.3.1 but they're guaranteed to get version 12.3.2.
On the Canada front, Rohan Patel said going forward, Canada will be no different than the US unless there's a regulatory or technical issue. Cyber truck falls into the regulatory case but we're closing in on a solution with Transport Canada. We're just playing a bit of catch up and aren't far from being able to enable a number of much anticipated updates for Canada. So over the next few weeks and months while Tesla tries to catch up bringing Canada up to speed with what US customers have been receiving, long term most of those differences should be erased unless it's regulatory or technical. Speaking of Transport Canada, Rohan said they've been entirely reasonable on a wide variety of issues and as you guys know I have no problem calling out regulators who are irrational or not acting in the public interest. We also learned that actually SmartSummon is near production ready status. It's currently in final employee testing. The expectation is for the first customers to receive it in the first half of April. They're saying it should mimic the level of improvement of FSD from version 11 to version 12. Elon saying on X that all cars in the US get a one month trial of FSD would imply a wide release of version 12 because I would assume that they're not going to release version 11 to any of these new folks.
So it sounds like version 12 will be going to an even wider release than a previous wide release would dictate given it's going beyond the roughly 400,000 users that have paid for FSD. I don't see too many people talking about it but this is a very big risk that Tesla is taking at least from a PR perspective. I think legally they should be covered with all of the disclaimers that you have to read through and click through before you activate FSD. We know version 12 is not perfect and there are still safety critical disengagement so hopefully all of these new people that are about to use the software are going to be extra cautious. I would have expected version 12 to do a regular wide release first going to all of the paying roughly 400,000 or so FSD subscribers. Maybe go through one or two dot revisions and then go to a wider release but here we are. In May 2023 Elon said once FSD is super smooth not just safe will roll out a free month trial for all cars in North America then extend to the rest of the world after we ensure it works well on the local roads and regulators approve it in that country.
On the pricing of FSD if Tesla hasn't lowered the prices to date I don't think they're going to lower the prices now as they're closer than they've ever been to actually figuring this thing out. It's pretty simple. Here's the disconnect. All along Tesla has viewed this program calling it FSD as a project that's in beta to solve for true autonomy. Most of the public in Wall Street views it as a level 2 driver assistance feature which technically in that regard they're correct. But eventually it doesn't matter where you're at on this spectrum because Tesla's going to figure it out and then it's going to become what Tesla has envisioned it as all along. And then at that point $12,000 is going to look like a steal. Don't misunderstand me I know we're not there and right now for the current value you get I wouldn't pay $12,000 for it either. I'm also not even trying to defend Tesla's decision on the pricing I'm just trying to articulate how I think they're thinking about this. At any point over the past few years Tesla easily could have focused on a level 3 system maybe some hands free on the highway but that's just never been what they're optimizing for. So in Tesla's mind FSD has always been about solving for true autonomy. It's always been priced as such and one of these days the software is going to deliver on those promises.
That's just my long winded way of saying I would not get my hopes up for a price cut on FSD. And while Tesla gathering data in shadow mode may not be as valuable as real FSD miles it's definitely not nothing either. So maybe there's a world in the future where these trials don't pan out like Tesla expects and they feel like they need more data to get over the finish line then maybe they lower the prices temporarily. I did see this floating around Reddit I'm not sure if it's real or not but it's a follow up from that Elon email saying please do the same when cars are returned from service this is very important.
Jan Lecun who's the chief AI scientist at meta had some choice words for Elon as he quote posted Elon talking about AI being smarter than humans. Jan said no if it were the case we would have AI systems that could teach themselves to drive a car in 20 hours of practice like any 17 year old but we still don't have fully autonomous reliable self driving even though we you have millions of hours of labeled training data responding to Jim Keller Tesla's former VP of autopilot hardware quote posting that Jan post Elon said Tesla self driving AI will be vastly better than human then Jim Keller who is very well respected in the hardware space said I agree the current trend will be to take driving off of the list of intelligence problems now on X Elon said found this in my fortune cookie tonight and it said take a vacation you'll have unexpected gains so that could be nothing or it could be a foreshadowing of Tesla's operation vacation that Andre Carpathi had talked about years ago the gist of operation vacation was that by automating most of the tasks related to training Tesla's networks Carpathi said that his team could almost sit back and let their networks automatically improve as long as the new data keeps coming from the fleet and hence the team could take a vacation given that this is effectively what we have now with version 12 and the end to end neural nets I think Elon alluding to this is not that far fetched quite frankly there are hundreds of different ways you could analyze this you could say Tesla's so confident in version 12.3 they know more people should be paying for it
you could say Tesla's sales growth is so stagnant they're now running paid ads on X Facebook Instagram Google search YouTube X and cars.com and now they're doing whatever else they can to generate interest in buying a Tesla aka they're getting desperate you can argue Tesla's trying to use FSD to sell cars or you can argue Tesla's FSD is going to sell more cars you can speculate on how much higher the take rates will go and how much incremental revenue and profits this could generate for Tesla but ultimately the main signal here should be that Tesla is confident enough in this version of FSD to make its official public debut not early adopters willing to pay a premium for a product that's been in beta for years but every single Tesla in the fleet in the United States and hopefully soon Canada with the proper hardware Tesla knows you only get one chance to make a first impression and that's experientially not reading an article about it and Tesla is making the bet that it's good enough right now this really is a huge milestone that Elon and Tesla have been thinking about for years and if you wanted to argue this is Tesla's chat GPT moment I would understand why just to verify at least for me going to cars.com you'll see the Tesla Model Y as a sponsored post right on the home page I think most of us are aware auto insurance rates have been going up nearly across the board but what most people don't know is that part of the reason is automakers are selling their customers data including their driving habits to insurance companies without them knowing. Later on the fact that the FTC reported in 2023 alone 2.7 billion dollars was lost to imposter scams with these trends increasing that's part of why I've partnered with Delete Me the sponsor of this video and look I spent an entire afternoon watching every YouTube video review about Delete Me in every write up that I could find to ensure that they are trustworthy and legit they've been helping families remove their sensitive data from all of these data brokers now for over 10 years and they're headquartered in the United States.
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Here we are in Austin Texas at the domain. We're parking behind a Rivian and another car. Okay there's a little y waiting behind us. I'm really curious to see how she does. Okay we're going pretty close about a third away two feet maybe. Okay nice I think I did it reasonably fast honestly faster than I could do it. I'd say for now this is a rumor but Tesla scope was saying that the VIN on that leaked model 3 ludicrous was a production VIN meaning actual production could be right around the corner. They're expecting first deliveries in April.
Charles Chi used to work at Waymo and just recently he said he was leaving Waymo to join Tesla and the autopilot and AI team and it sounds like he was pretty heavily recruited. He said on x day one at Tesla it's already mind blowing. When it comes to the Tesla China weekly sales data just know there are growing variabilities in the reporting of the data. You have Gary Black talking about 13.2 thousand Roland said 13.6 thousand and then the CNEV post said Tesla was at 13.7 thousand. Some weeks Liotto doesn't report the data so it's kind of a mess. I'm going with 13.6 thousand because usually the more recent numbers are the more accurate ones. Comparing that to the same weekend quarter four that number was 18.5 thousand.
Looking at the year over year number four quarter one over the same time frame Tesla is down 5.24 percent this year. For what it's worth week 12 in quarter one of 2023 was 15.9 thousand. The breakdown for this week was roughly 10.7 thousand model wise and 2.9 thousand model threes. China has initiated dispute settlement proceedings against the United States at the World Trade Organization to safeguard its interest when it comes to EVs. China said it was contesting discriminatory subsidies under the IRA.
A spokesperson for China's Ministry of Commerce said it urged Washington to promptly correct discriminatory industrial policies and maintain the stability of the global industrial and supply chains for EVs. WTO rulings on trade disputes are supposed to take six months after an adjudication panel is set up but often take longer. Even if the WTO rules in favor of China the United States can always appeal it so we may have some back and forth here for months to come. There's been some obscure sparse reporting about Tesla in Italy. They're saying Tesla's in talks with the Italian government to make electric lorries and vans in Italy. A lorry is another word for a truck. They said the contacts have been going on for months on and off. The most serious contacts or conversations have been with Tesla but Italy is simultaneously negotiating with BYD, Great Wall and Sherry Auto. I would not put too much stock into this. We know Tesla needs to focus on producing semis at volume in the United States before they branch anywhere else.
On Layton a Tesla IT engineer Pat Rolke said I'm looking for an ace engineer to build a seamless private 5G service in between Tesla products and our private 5G infrastructure. Pushing low latencies and data rates to the limit is guaranteed. 5G networks have touted lower latencies around the 5 millisecond range when 4G networks can range anywhere from 60 to 100 milliseconds. The job listing does say this is for all Tesla vehicles, S3xy Cybertruck and Optimus on Tesla premises. The posting said for on-premise use cases like in manufacturing shop floors, outdoor areas and R&D labs.
It should be noted there's been plenty of hype around these private 5G networks now for years but as of late it's been tough to find the progress that many of these companies were hoping for. As part of India's offer to Tesla they allegedly offered Tesla to set up a 5G private network for its future manufacturing facility. And at the end of last year Tesla sued inter-digital and a pool of 5G patent holders alleging they've breached their duty to offer fair reasonable and non-discriminatory licensing rates. On X, Elon responded to Sam Coris saying complexity per unit mass is much higher with humanoid robots but still I think it ends up costing less than half of a car. Sam had said a humanoid robot is less than a tenth the weight of a car can the manufacturing ramp be 10x that of a vehicle.
In quarter four of last year, Tesla's automotive cost of goods sold was roughly $36,000 so eventually producing optimists could fall in the $15,000 range when it comes to cogs. That however is an educated guess at best. This really is one of the key differentiations when it comes to optimists in some of these other humanoid robots, especially Atlas from Boston Dynamics, Tesla's optimist has been designed and geared for production specifically. We're talking high volume eventually hundreds of thousands if not millions per year. Not all other humanoid robots have been designed from first principles focusing on manufacturing.
As a way to officially launch the Ford Explorer EV in Europe, Jim Farley said congrats to Lexi Allford for setting a new record, the first global circumnavigation buying EV. She did it in the new Ford Explorer. This will be the first vehicle assembled at the Ford Cologne EV Center after their $2 billion renovation. This one should sound familiar, Australia's government will amend its proposed fuel efficiency standards for the auto industry by easing restrictions on carbon emissions. This decision follows pressures from automakers and the political opposition. The initial proposal was looking for a 60% reduction in emissions between 2025 and 2029. The new proposal has dropped down to a 50% reduction.
There was a tragic accident in the middle of the night last night in Baltimore. The Scott Key Bridge actually collapsed as the bridge was hit by a cargo ship that lost power and lost control. I don't really want to dive into implications here to come off as insensitive because lives were lost and there are still searches going on. I just wanted to put it on your radar if it's not already and mentioned that the port of Baltimore has been closed until further notice and that is the busiest US port for car shipments.
In Quarter 4 of 2023 in the United States, best deployments shattered previous records. These figures include grid scale and residential numbers. In Quarter 4, for megawatt hours, it was 12.4,000 up 99% quarter over quarter. As we've said, many times month to month, quarter to quarter deployments will be lumpy. But across the second half of 2023, we saw a significant uptick. Wood McKenzie said Q4 2023 was extremely strong for the US energy storage market helped by easing supply chain challenges and system price declines. The top three states for the quarter, California, Arizona and Texas.
At about 5 p.m., Mr. Tesla on X posted a picture saying if you think version 12.3.1 is awesome. Just wait to see version 12.3.2. More importantly, this shows FSD version 12.3.2 on a 2024 branch, specifically .3.5. It sounds like he may be under an NDA. He said, I'm hoping it'll be okay by tomorrow to post some release notes and more info. Since we're already here, I might as well just share what he said. My humble opinion, FSD has solved in Amman FSD since 2020. Tesla stock closed today at $177.67 up 2.92% while the NASDAQ was down 0.42%. It was a higher volume day for Tesla trading about 16 million shares above the average 30-day volume. Don't forget, check out Delete Me linked below if you're interested.
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