Nvidia vs. Tesla: Part 1 / Tesla Trade Secrets Stolen / Ford Changes EV Plans Again ⚡️

Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis. Quick shout out to my newest patron Jerome T. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. Earlier this month over on X, I shared my experience getting a Tesla solar roof quote. Long story short, it was 180 to $200,000. And no, sadly, I do not live in the blank check mansion. Even for somebody like myself who's happy to pay a slight premium to Tesla to support the mission, that was just an astronomical quote. Something to note here from Ernesto who does Tesla solar roof installs. When he was talking about the cost, he said it depends on many variables, but the new gen solar roof reduced its components by 7x. We're installing our first with the new system in two weeks with Powerwall 3. We want to be around $45 to $50 per square foot. Just one example, but this rate would have cut my quote by more than 50%. That post from Ernesto is certainly not an official update, but it is definitely encouraging and something to keep an eye on. I'm hoping that for the Q1 conference call, we get a question about Tesla's solar roof and the plans for the future. I agree. You would think if Tesla had a new generation solar roof, they would be marketing it and we would be hearing about it officially. At the very least, maybe I would have heard something about it from my installer that I talked to just a couple weeks ago.

欢迎来到《电气化》，我是您的主持人迪伦·卢米斯。快速致谢我的最新赞助人杰罗姆·T。感谢您选择支持这个频道。本月早些时候，我在X上分享了我获得特斯拉太阳能屋顶报价的经历。长话短说，报价是18到20万美元。可悲的是，我并不住在白纸上签的豪宅。即使对于像我这样愿意支付略微溢价支持特斯拉使命的人来说，那个报价也是天文数字。从安装特斯拉太阳能屋顶的Ernesto那里得知的一个重要信息是，成本取决于许多变量，但新一代太阳能屋顶将其组件减少了7倍。两周后，我们将首次安装采用新系统和Powerwall 3的太阳能屋顶，希望每平方英尺的价格在45到50美元之间。虽然这只是一个例子，但这个比例将使我的报价削减超过50%。Ernesto的这篇帖子当然不是官方更新，但它确实令人鼓舞，值得关注。我希望在第一季度电话会议中，有人能提问关于特斯拉太阳能屋顶以及未来计划的问题。我同意。如果特斯拉有一种新一代太阳能屋顶，他们应该在进行市场推广，并且我们应该从官方渠道获得信息。至少，也许几周前我与安装商谈过的时候，他会告诉我一些相关信息。

Even Rohan Patel was skeptical of Elon's claim that Tesla energy will one day rival Tesla auto in size, but he's now saying as battery costs come down and electricity system operators understand the grid benefits, distribution and transmission, there seems to be no end in sight to the growth trajectory globally. Exhibit A that it's not just Tesla stands or retail investors talking about this unlimited TAM for Tesla energy, but Tesla execs as well. A user asked about a list of where we could find projects Tesla energy has done. Rohan said I like this idea a lot, important for people to see that growth trajectory on a map and to also excite more entities to develop the right market rules to enable a more resilient and efficient grid. Then Patrick Bean, who works in policy and business development at Tesla, chimed in saying, great idea, the megapack team is working on it.

就连罗汉·帕特尔对埃隆声称特斯拉能源有一天会与特斯拉汽车的规模相媲美也持怀疑态度，但他现在表示，随着电池成本降低以及电力系统运营商了解到电网的好处，分配和传输，在全球范围内的增长轨迹似乎没有止境。不仅有特斯拉的支持者或零售投资者在谈论特斯拉能源这种无限扩展的市场机会，还有特斯拉的高管。有用户询问特斯拉能源已经完成的项目列表。罗汉表示，我很喜欢这个想法，让人们看到地图上的增长轨迹，同时也激励更多实体制定正确的市场规则，以实现更加强大和高效的电网。随后，特斯拉的政策和业务发展人员派翠克·比恩表示，这是一个好主意，兆瓦级蓄电池团队正在努力开展工作。

The problem is this market has very little transparency, there's not a ton of reporting on it. We'll often hear about projects being announced, but then there's very little follow up with those projects in the years following to let us know if they were ever put online or not. The more detail we get, the better and it'll be cool to see region by region who's awake to what's going on and who is dragging their feet. The Tesla megapack account posted congrats to PlusPower and the Tesla auto better team on landing the number one spot in the Moto Energy Urcott rankings with Gambit in 2023. What we have here in 2023 battery energy storage systems in Urcott the electric reliability council of Texas earned average annual revenues of $196,000 per megawatt. You may recall back in 2021 when the Texas grid had all of those outages, that was when Elon took a shot at Urcott saying they're not earning the R. The number one best project for 2023 in Urcott was this Gambit project which was up almost at $300,000 per megawatt.

问题在于这个市场缺乏透明度，没有很多相关报道。我们经常会听到有关项目的宣布，但在随后的几年里几乎没有跟进报道，让我们知道它们是否真的上线。我们获得的细节越多，越好，看到各个地区对发生的事情有谁清醒，有谁拖了后腿也会很有意思。特斯拉的超级电池组账户发文祝贺PlusPower和特斯拉汽车团队在2023年Gambit（一家公司）在Moto Energy Urcott排行榜上获得第一名。 在2023年，Urcott（得克萨斯州电力可靠性委员会）的电池储能系统的平均年收入为每兆瓦196,000美元。也许你还记得2021年得克萨斯州电网出现那些断电事件，那时候伊隆抨击了Urcott说他们没有赚到钱。在2023年，Urcott排名第一的项目是这个Gambit项目，几乎每兆瓦接近300,000美元。

That's roughly 53% higher than the average across all of the projects. What's Gambit you ask? Well, it's a Tesla subsidiary registered as Gambit Energy Storage LLC, the one that was building a greater than 100 megawatt energy storage project in Angleton, Texas. That according to a filing with the SEC that listed Gambit as a Tesla subsidiary, then the different colors for each bar on the chart just represents where the revenue was coming from. So for example, you have energy arbitrage, ancillary services, and all of the others. For our purposes though, that's not as important as the takeaway that yes, Tesla's auto bidder has this Tesla subsidiary project number one out of the 80 different projects listed for 2023. Now yes, of course the size of each battery project will play a big role in determining the revenue it ultimately brings in. But if we round up Tesla's figure to 300,000 for easy math, then multiply it by 100 megawatts which was the size of that Gambit project, that's about 30 million dollars in revenue from this Gambit project in 2023.

这大致比所有项目的平均水平高出53%。你问什么是Gambit？嗯，这是特斯拉下属注册的Gambit Energy Storage LLC，正在德克萨斯州Angleton建造一个大于100兆瓦的储能项目。根据提交给美国证券交易委员会的文件，列出Gambit是特斯拉的子公司，图表上每个条的不同颜色代表收入来源。例如，有能源套利、辅助服务等。不过对于我们来说，重要的是，特斯拉的自动投标者将这个特斯拉子公司项目列为2023年80个项目中的第一。当然，每个电池项目的规模将在决定最终带来的收入方面扮演重要角色。但如果我们将特斯拉的数字取整为300,000，然后乘以那个Gambit项目的100兆瓦规模，那么2023年这个Gambit项目的收入大约为3000万美元。

We don't really have great insight into the profitability for these project operators. Those figures can fluctuate greatly based on electricity pricing, the volatility, what region the project is based in, but at least in the Urkot market, I would say this data is proving that Tesla and auto bidder do have an edge of sorts. And the best project that Rohan was initially talking about from Tag Energy, they said on LinkedIn, were proud to partner again with Tesla for batteries and software. Repeat customers are always a good thing. Erick on X was asking about power share with the Cybertruck and availability. Drew Baglino said power share to home functionality will be enabled via OTA updates in quarter two. Truck only systems come first with power wall integration a fast follow. I know there's still a lot of questions out there about how this power share works, what's required and what's not. This may not answer all of your questions, but there is a Tesla blog post with some active diagrams showing installation with power wall installation with a backup switch and then a typical installation. There's more info too, so I'll have this page linked below.

我们对这些项目运营商的盈利能力并没有很好的洞察。这些数字可能会根据电价、波动性、项目所在区域等因素而波动很大，但至少在乌尔科特市场，我可以说这些数据证明了特斯拉和自动竞标者在某种程度上确实具有优势。Rohan最初谈到的Tag Energy最好的项目，他们在LinkedIn上表示，他们很自豪再次与特斯拉合作，用于电池和软件。回头客总是一件好事。Erick 询问了有关Cybertruck 的功率共享和供应情况。Drew Baglino 表示，家庭功率共享功能将在第二季度通过OTA更新启用。首先是卡车系统，然后是与Powerwall 整合的快速跟进。我知道关于这个功率共享如何工作、需要什么和不需要什么仍然有很多问题。这可能不会回答你所有的问题，但特斯拉的博客文章中有一些活跃的图表，展示了带有备用开关的Powerwall 安装和典型安装。还有更多信息，所以我将在下面链接这个页面。

Last night, Tesla scope said another wave of FSD beta 12.3 just went out to new Tesla vehicles including those with hardware 4, so we're getting a little closer. But if you're on a 2024 branch like myself, we are still left out in the cold. As far as I can tell, 12.3 is still only on the 2023 branch and us 2024 folk cannot go backwards. In case you have FOMO to give you some context, the word is as of last night, only about 10% of Tesla vehicles have actually downloaded 12.3. 90% are still waiting. Elon replied to whole Mars saying, three significant improvements to FSD will roll out roughly every two weeks should be really shining bright by late April or early May. One could argue it's shining fairly bright right now, but as we've talked about now for weeks, this will all be about the pace of iteration. We should all know by now Elon loves to hype up each release, but this time around, the data seems to be supporting his claims. Edge case on X shared a nice screenshot of some data comparing different FSD beta versions and different scenarios and how each version is handling said scenario. We're not going through all of these, so pause and take a screenshot if you'd like to zoom in. Just to highlight where 12.3 has regressed from prior versions, one example, proper speed for traffic flow and posted speed limit. There was a more significant step back for proper behavior at flashing red lights. And there's definitely still situations 12.3 is not doing well or at all, but from a regression standpoint, we're not looking too bad.

昨晚，特斯拉定位系统表示又有一波FSD beta 12.3版本已经推送给新的特斯拉车辆，包括那些搭载硬件4的车辆，所以我们离实现这一目标又近了一步。但是如果你像我一样使用2024版本的车辆，那么我们依然被排除在外。据我所知，12.3版本仍然只适用于2023版本，而我们2024版本的车辆是无法回退的。如果你因此而感到恐慌，让我给你一些背景信息，根据昨晚的消息，只有大约10%的特斯拉车辆实际上已经下载了12.3版本，还有90%的车辆在等待中。埃隆回复全火星团队称，每两周将推出三项重大FSD改进，到了四月末或五月初应该会有非常明显的改善。有人可能会说现在已经相当不错了，但正如我们这几周来一直在讨论的，这一切将取决于迭代速度。我们现在都知道埃隆喜欢炒作每一次新版本发布，但这一次，数据似乎支持了他的说法。Edge case on X分享了一些数据的良好截图，比较了不同的FSD测试版本和不同的场景以及每个版本处理该场景的情况。我们不会逐一列举这些，如果您有兴趣，可以暂停并截图放大。只是强调12.3版本相对于之前版本退步的地方，比如交通流量和标志速度的合理速度。在闪烁红灯行为方面，出现了更大的退步。而且12.3版本仍然有一些情况下表现不佳或者表现得根本不好，但从逆行的角度来看，我们看起来并不太糟糕。

One other thing to keep in mind when it comes to FSD rolling out globally, we have keys on X who is one of the policy experts he's dug into the details when it comes to the EU regulation. He's also part of the team building the Mr. Green EV Robo fleet. He shared some doubts about FSD beta in Europe, especially the assertive multi lane changes in path planning we see V12 performing in the states, especially the system initiated maneuvers which make beta great are still restricted in the current DCAS legislation. The easiest way to think about this, with past versions where there was code, Tesla may have had more flexibility for not allowing certain features, but with version 12, how are you going to do that if there's really no heuristic code to select for. A Reddit user shared this picture of Tesla's official rap in satin abyss blue. Personally, would not be my first choice. Unfortunately, it's looking like we're going to have two separate regulations both being pulled back and eased because of all of the legacy OEMs and the UAW that's been complaining.

在全球推广FSD时需要记住的另一件事是，我们在X身上有一个政策专家，他深入研究了欧盟法规的细节。他还是Mr. Green电动车机器人车队的建设团队的一员。他对欧洲的FSD测试版表示了一些疑虑，特别是我们在V12版本中看到的在美国执行的强制多车道变道规划，尤其是系统发起的操作，这些使测试版变得非常好的操作在目前DCAS法规下仍然受到限制。最简单的思考方式是，在之前的版本中有代码的情况下，特斯拉可能更有灵活性，可以不允许一些功能，但是在版本12中，如果真的没有启发式代码可供选择，那该怎么办呢？一个Reddit用户分享了特斯拉官方车漆的缎面深渊蓝颜色图片。个人认为这不会是我的首选。不幸的是，由于所有传统汽车制造商和UAW的抱怨，看起来我们将会有两个分离的法规，都被推迟和放松。

First up, the DOE is adjusting some regulations when it comes to the miles per gallon equivalent, saying the final rule will gradually reduce the petroleum equivalent EV fuel economy rating through 2030 and by 65% in total, giving automakers more time to adjust. The main pushback against these regulations that were initiated last year was excessively high imputed fuel economy values for EVs, means a relatively small number of EVs will mathematically guarantee compliance without meaningful improvements in the real world average fuel economy of automakers overall fleets.

首先，能源部正在调整一些关于每加仑当量英里数的法规，称最终规则将逐步降低到2030年的石油当量电动车燃油效率评级，并总体减少65%，给予汽车制造商更多调整时间。去年发起的这些法规遭到的主要反对是电动车的虚拟燃油效率数值过高，这意味着相对较少数量的电动车在数学上可以保证符合规定，而在实际世界中汽车制造商整体车队的平均燃油效率并没有真正有意义的提升。

Then separately, as we talked about yesterday, this week the EPA is expected to peel back some of their initial proposals when it comes to greenhouse gas emissions. The final rules are expected to be a boost for plug-in hybrid vehicles. An automaker can have more than one third of vehicles it produces in 2032 be plug-in hybrids under one potential compliance path. The EPA is also expected to scale back its proposal to reduce particulate matter from gas powered vehicles, which the industry has argued would effectively require particulate filters on all gas powered vehicles. I mean yeah, geez, the world would definitely end if these automakers had to put a filter on their vehicle so that people could breathe cleaner air.

然后，就像我们昨天谈到的，本周环保局预计将放缓一些关于温室气体排放的初始提议。最终规则预计将对插电混合动力车辆产生正面影响。根据一种潜在的合规途径，一家汽车制造商可以在2032年生产的车辆中超过三分之一是插电混合动力车。环保局还预计将缩减减少汽油车颗粒物排放的建议，该建议被行业认为将有效要求所有汽油车配备颗粒物过滤器。我是说，是啊，天哪，如果这些汽车制造商必须在他们的车辆上安装过滤器以使人们呼吸更清洁的空气，世界肯定会崩溃。

Automakers also objected to the EPA plan to largely eliminate the use of enrichment, a strategy to boost performance and prevent engine damage from hot exhaust gases, which they say would bar them from using some engines. The EPA is expected to sharply curtail or drop its plan to prohibit enrichment. Would I love to see more urgency for the entire industry to push toward full BEV? Absolutely. But will the relaxing of these rules also indirectly benefit Tesla over the next 5-10 years because these automakers aren't as focused on full BEV? Absolutely.

汽车制造商还反对美国环保局计划大幅减少使用浓缩的方案，这是一种提高性能、防止发动机热排气气体损坏的策略，他们表示这将阻止他们使用部分发动机。预计美国环保局将大幅限制或取消禁止浓缩的计划。我是否希望看到整个行业更加紧迫地向全电动汽车发展?当然。但是这些规定的放宽也会在未来5-10年间间接受惠于特斯拉，因为其他汽车制造商并不那么专注于全电动汽车?当然。

In Tesla software update 24.8.4 they're introducing a trailer alarm system for the Cybertruck. This extends the vehicle's alarm system to monitor the connection status of a trailer hitched to the vehicle. You will have the option to turn this feature on and off and for now it's only confirmed for the Cybertruck but their speculation it could roll out to other models too. Simply put, your vehicle alarm now also monitors whether your trailer is plugged in to the hitch. They're also saying the UI showing the trailer-friendly stalls may be showing up in .8.4 as well.

在特斯拉软件更新24.8.4中，他们为Cybertruck引入了一个拖车警报系统。这将扩展车辆的警报系统，监视连接到车辆的拖车的连接状态。您可以选择打开或关闭此功能，目前仅确认适用于Cybertruck，但有猜测可能会推出到其他车型。简单来说，您的车辆警报现在还监视您的拖车是否连接到了拖车钩。他们还表示，显示适用于拖车的停车位的用户界面也可能在.8.4中显示。

For the Tesla China weekly figure some people were reporting 12,000 but Li Auto came out later so I'm going to use the most recent figure which was 12,300. Plugging that data into the table if you wanted to compare it to the same weekend quarter 4 that was 18.3,000 if you go back to quarter 1 of 2023 for week 11 that number was 18.7,000. We've been off the quarter 4 pace now for some time so just comparing quarter 1 2024 to Q1 2023 were 3.88% off the pace of last year. As we've said now for some time there's a real chance Tesla's Q1 data comes in flat or even negative on a year over year basis.

有关特斯拉中国每周销售数据，有些人报告是12,000，但后来理想汽车公布数据，所以我会使用最新的数据，即12,300。将这些数据插入表格中，如果您想将其与去年同一季度第4季度进行比较，那时销量为18.3万，如果回溯到2023年第一季度第11周，那时销量为18.7万。我们已经有一段时间偏离了第四季度的步伐，所以只比较2024年第一季度和2023年第一季度，我们和去年的步伐相比下降了3.88%。正如我们已经说了一段时间，特斯拉的第一季度数据有很大可能会按照年基础来看保持不变或者甚至出现负增长。

You can point to figure different directions if you want to but at the end of the day when you keep up with the Chinese EV market the rate at which they are launching new vehicles at lower prices compared to prior versions is pretty astounding. For warning I'm going to sound very repetitive this year if I haven't already for the past 6 to 12 months but when it comes to Chinese EVs making their way one way or another into the United States it's seeming more likely by the month. Auto execs and politicians are still sounding the alarm about this existential threat to American car brands. The Alliance for American Manufacturing has been talking about an extinction level event. Carlos Tavares recently said the Chinese offensive is possibly the biggest risk that companies like Tesla and ourselves are facing right now.

你可以指向不同的方向，如果你愿意，但归根结底，当你关注中国电动汽车市场时，它们推出新车型的速度以及价格比先前版本要更低，相当惊人。警告一下，今年我可能会听起来非常重复，如果在过去6到12个月里还没有这样做的话，但说到中国电动汽车以某种方式进入美国，这种可能性似乎在逐月增加。汽车高管和政客仍在就这种对美国汽车品牌的存在威胁发出警告。美国制造业联盟一直在谈论一场灭绝级别的事件。卡洛斯·塔瓦雷斯最近表示，中国的进攻可能是像特斯拉和我们这样的公司目前面临的最大风险。

And already presumably in response to this potential threat Ford is now pivoting its attention from big EVs to smaller low-cost ones. As a result plans for an electric 3-row SUV have been delayed. Instead Ford is focusing on developing small EVs through a specialized team in Irvine California. They haven't said much about this project publicly other than Alan Clark is going to lead the division who previously engineered the Model Y. Ford's Skunk Works team consists of fewer than 100 people working on a new electric platform to underpin a compact SUV, a small pickup and potentially a vehicle that could be used for ride hailing. The first model will arrive in late 2026 starting around $25,000.

为了应对这种潜在威胁，福特已经将注意力从大型电动汽车转向了成本更低的小型电动汽车。因此，电动三排座SUV的计划已被推迟。相反，福特正在通过位于加州尔湾的专门团队专注于开发小型电动汽车。他们还没有公开透露太多关于这个项目，除了艾伦·克拉克将带领这个部门，他之前负责设计了Model Y。福特的Skunk Works团队由不到100人组成，他们正在开发一个新的电动平台，以支持紧凑型SUV、小型皮卡，以及潜在用于网约车的车辆。第一款车型将于2026年底推出，售价约为25,000美元起。

Maybe Ford is looking to fend off the Chinese but most definitely looking to be able to compete with Tesla's next gen platform. Initially Ford's compact EV will be powered by LFP lithium iron phosphate. Farley has said this small EV must turn a profit within one year of hitting the market. I'll just say it I think the only reason Ford has a slight chance of pulling something like this off by 2026 then turning a profit within 12 months is having Alan Clark on this team who has extensive experience at Tesla with the Model Y. It's still going to be a monumental task from where they're at today with EVs but without him or someone with comparable experience I really wouldn't see any way for them to pull that off.

也许福特想要抵挡中国的竞争，但肯定是为了能够与特斯拉的下一代平台竞争。最初，福特的紧凑型电动汽车将采用LFP磷酸铁锂电池。法利表示，这款小型电动汽车必须在上市一年内实现盈利。我要说的是，我认为福特能够在2026年前实现这一目标并在12个月内实现盈利的唯一原因是，他们拥有具有特斯拉Model Y丰富经验的团队成员艾伦·克拉克。尽管从电动汽车的现状来看，这仍然是一项艰巨的任务，但如果没有他或者其他具有类似经验的人，我真的看不到他们完成这一目标的途径。

Goshen has just filed a breach of contract complaint against the green charter township in western Michigan. Goshen asked the court to reinstate permits canceled by the township thereby allowing its battery project to move forward and further filed a motion for preliminary injunction requesting that the court intervene quickly. However the project has generated substantial local uproar with residents repeatedly expressing concern about Goshen's ties to China and calling on the Whitbury administration to cancel the project. Bentley is the latest company to bite the dust when it comes to pushing back its full B.E.V. plans. Their CEO said they remain committed to carbon neutrality and exclusively offering EVs but it now plans to do so a few years later. Bentley will continue offering plug-in hybrids alongside B.E.V.'s past its target of 2030.

戈申刚刚针对密歇根西部绿色城镇提起了违约诉讼。戈申要求法院恢复被城镇取消的许可证，以便让其电池项目继续推进，并申请暂时禁令，要求法院迅速介入。然而，该项目引起了当地居民的强烈反对，他们反复表达对戈申与中国的关系的担忧，并呼吁取消该项目。宾利是最新一家推迟全面B.E.V.计划的公司。他们的CEO表示，他们仍致力于碳中和和全系列EV车型，但现在计划将该计划推迟几年。宾利将继续在2030年的目标之后提供插电混合动力和B.E.V.。

Bentley's first EV was expected to be released next year in 2025 now that's being pushed back to 2026. The main reason for their delay? Software issues. Additionally Bentley will increase its investment in plug-in hybrids by hundreds of millions of dollars in the years to come. Audi is now considering building EVs in the US including space at VW's factory in South Carolina. Right now Audi makes no cars in the United States and their CEO said that bigger SUVs would be part of Audi's US strategy. Their CEO did say the cancellation of the IRA would not make it less attractive to us especially as a premium manufacturer.

宾利首款电动汽车原计划于明年2025年发布，但现在已经推迟至2026年。延迟的主要原因是软件问题。此外，宾利未来将增加数亿美元投资于插电式混合动力汽车。奥迪正在考虑在美国生产电动汽车，包括在南卡罗来纳州大众工厂的空间。目前奥迪在美国不生产任何车辆，他们的首席执行官表示更大型的SUV将成为奥迪在美国市场的一部分战略。他们的首席执行官还表示，IRA的取消对我们尤其是作为高端制造商将不会使其变得不那么有吸引力。

We're not that reliant on subsidies and the battery incentives for VW are already locked in in Canada. We're planning much more long-term than one legislative term. They can posture all they want but money talks and we'll see what happens. In a separate article Audi's CEO did confirm our vision is quite clear we're fully committed to electric mobility. They're expecting an EV only lineup by 2033. Audi wants to earn as much money from electric cars as from combustion engines by the end of the decade. By 2027 Audi will have a full electric vehicle in all core segments. They're also calling 2024 a transition year setting expectations for slower growth and added in the medium term an additional EV below the Q4 will be launched.

我们并不太依赖补贴，而且大众汽车在加拿大的电池激励已经确定了。我们的规划比单一立法任期更为长远。他们可以摆出各种姿态，但金钱才是最有力的证据，我们将拭目以待。在另一篇文章中，奥迪的首席执行官确认了我们的愿景非常明确，我们全力致力于电动出行。他们预计到2033年实现全电动车型。奥迪希望在本十年结束时从电动车上赚取与传统燃油车相当的利润。到2027年，奥迪将在所有核心细分市场推出全电动汽车。他们还称2024年为过渡年，预期增长较慢，并且在中期将推出Q4以下的另一款电动汽车。

Shell is planning to divest 500 retail sites annually over the next two years for 1000 total. They said we're upgrading our retail network with expanded EV charging and convenience offers in response to changing customer needs. They said they'll focus on public chargers because customers need them more than home charging. For now the company plans to roll these out in China and Europe. Ferrari's CEO has said their EVs won't be silent like Tesla's they'll roar with emotion. That's about it other than their first EV is expected toward the end of 2025. There's a lot of chatter out there right now about Tesla vs Nvidia. Is Nvidia now Tesla's biggest competitor? Is Nvidia going to take market share from Tesla? And based on some other commentary and questions I think it may be helpful for me to put together a deep dive comparing Tesla and Nvidia, how they're like, how they're different and how some of their products do actually overlap. If that would be something you're interested in just comment yes below to let me know.

壳牌公司计划在未来两年内每年剥离500家零售站点，总计1000家。他们表示，为了应对不断变化的客户需求，我们正在升级零售网络，提供更多的电动汽车充电设施和便利服务。他们说，他们将专注于公共充电站，因为客户更需要它们而不是家庭充电。目前公司计划在中国和欧洲推出这些设施。法拉利的首席执行官表示，他们的电动车不会像特斯拉那样寂静，而是会充满情感地轰鸣。除此之外，他们的首款电动车预计将于2025年底推出。关于特斯拉与英伟达之间的比较现在有很多讨论。英伟达现在是特斯拉最大的竞争对手吗？英伟达是否将从特斯拉那里夺取市场份额？根据一些其他评论和问题，我认为组织一个深入比较特斯拉和英伟达，它们的相似之处，不同之处以及一些产品实际上是重叠的内容可能是有帮助的。如果你对此感兴趣，请在下方评论“是”来让我知道。

For now though I want to keep things simple and try to give you a basic explanation of some of Nvidia's products and potential counterparts at Tesla. From a high level think of Nvidia as an infrastructure provider they're going to be providing these chips and the software and the APIs to the auto industry. Tesla on the other hand is set apart because a lot of their infrastructure for their autonomous efforts are actually in house. However there is a direct connection between Tesla and Nvidia. That's because Tesla's been buying compute hardware from Nvidia now for a few years. They started with the A100's most recently they brought online 10,000 H100's and those chips that Tesla has been buying from Nvidia are what they actually use to train Tesla's full self driving neural network.

目前我想保持简单，尝试为您提供关于Nvidia的一些产品和特斯拉潜在对应产品的基本解释。从高层次来看，可以将Nvidia视为基础设施提供商，他们将为汽车行业提供这些芯片、软件和API。另一方面，特斯拉与众不同的地方在于，他们为自动驾驶努力提供的许多基础设施实际上都是自家生产的。然而，特斯拉与Nvidia之间存在着直接联系。这是因为特斯拉几年来一直在从Nvidia购买计算硬件。他们最初使用的是A100芯片，最近又引入了10,000个H100芯片。特斯拉从Nvidia购买的这些芯片实际上用于训练特斯拉的全自动驾驶神经网络。

Then of course we know Tesla has dojo it's in house chip that could be viewed as a competitor to the chips it's been buying from Nvidia like the A and the H100's. Then when it comes to in car compute the chips on the actual vehicles that are actually running the inference for these AI models they can be used for infotainment and other things as well. Nvidia has its drive orin which is the current generation and could be compared to a Tesla hardware 3. Nvidia just unveiled its drive Thor which can loosely be compared to a Tesla hardware 4. The word is this chip for Nvidia will enter auto makers vehicles sometime in 2025. Then we have Nvidia's drive Hyperion which can be thought of as the entire sensor suite so the cameras the ultrasonic sensors Lidar radar and what's cool about this platform is that it's modular or all a cart so each automaker can come and pick and choose exactly what they need for their own solution.

当然，我们知道特斯拉有自家的芯片Dojo，它可以看作是与从英伟达购买的芯片（如A和H100）竞争的产品。当涉及到汽车内部的计算时，实际上在车辆上运行这些AI模型推断的芯片也可用于信息娱乐和其他用途。英伟达有其Drive Orin，这是当前一代产品，可以与特斯拉的Hardware 3相比较。英伟达刚刚推出了其Drive Thor，可以大致与特斯拉的Hardware 4相比较。据悉，这款英伟达芯片将在2025年左右进入汽车制造商的车辆。接着是英伟达的Drive Hyperion，可以被看作是整个传感器套件，包括摄像头、超声波传感器、激光雷达等。这个平台的一个亮点是模块化，每个汽车制造商都可以挑选需要的传感器来满足自己的解决方案需求。

For those of you very familiar with Nvidia I appreciate your patience here but you have to understand that there are some people in the audience that may have no experience with Nvidia at all and in the coming weeks and months I want to do my best to try to bring everybody up to speed. Nvidia's new Blackwell GPU is the new chip architecture that will be replacing the outgoing hopper architecture. There have been some pretty big performance claims about this new Blackwell chip that is indeed bigger physically in size but I need to remind us all that when Tesla switched to the H100s from the A100s, Nvidia was touting about a 9x in performance but Tesla said in their own testing they were only experiencing about a 3x boost in performance. According to the Nikkei Asia both Tesla and X are already in line for these new Blackwell GPUs. Tesla and X are among the lengthy list of launch customers for Blackwell and Elon said there's currently nothing better than Nvidia hardware for AI. Of note is the fact that those H100 chips that Tesla uses to train its FSD do fall under the export restrictions that the administration has placed on Nvidia. The main concern was trying to keep China from using these advanced chips to further their military power. But Nvidia has said its drive for is automotive grade meaning it will comply with the export restrictions. There are certainly ways Tesla and Nvidia will be competitors which we'll touch on in future episodes but don't forget Tesla's a big beneficiary of each new revision of these more powerful training chips that Tesla eventually gets their hands on.

对于那些对英伟达非常了解的人，我感谢你们的耐心，但你们必须理解，在观众中可能有一些人对英伟达毫不了解，在接下来的几周甚至几个月里，我会尽力让所有人都跟上。英伟达的新Blackwell GPU是将要取代旧的hopper架构的新芯片架构。关于这款新Blackwell芯片有一些相当大的性能宣称，它在物理上确实比以前的芯片要大，但我需要提醒大家，当特斯拉从A100s换到H100s的时候，英伟达曾宣称性能提升了约9倍，但特斯拉在自己的测试中只发现性能提升大约3倍。据日经亚洲报道，特斯拉和X已经准备好使用这些新的Blackwell GPU。特斯拉和X是Blackwell的早期客户名单中的一部分，埃隆说目前没有比英伟达硬件更好的人工智能。值得注意的是，特斯拉用来训练全自动驾驶系统的那些H100芯片受到了美国政府对英伟达设置的出口限制的影响。主要原因是试图阻止中国利用这些先进芯片进一步增强军事实力。但英伟达表示，他们的驱动力是符合汽车级别的，这意味着他们将遵守出口限制。在未来的节目中，特斯拉和英伟达肯定会是竞争对手，但不要忘记，每当特斯拉终于拿到这些更强大的训练芯片的每一次新版本，特斯拉都是受益者。

Nvidia has just deepened its ties with BYD to include AI training, auto manufacturing and in-car computing. BYD will use Nvidia's platform to develop and deploy intelligent robots within its manufacturing facilities for factory planning and use its Omniverse Realtime 3D graphics platform to improve the shopping experience for car buyers. We know how Tesla builds a factory, learns from it and then makes changes for the next one. Well, this Omniverse from Nvidia is supposed to be able to help companies do that without actually building a real factory. Simultaneously, BYD's chairman just said the penetration of any these in China could exceed 50% within the next three months. This, as the Chinese government, plans to tap all the policy resources available to create a made in China EV supply chain, pressing three state-owned automakers to spend more on R&D. Beijing will likely make those automakers do that even if their profits take a hit. The initiative is expected to include technology that incorporates semiconductors. BYD and China's strategy are very clear, companies need to create economies of scale as quickly as possible and develop competitive advantage for their brands.

英伟达刚刚加深了与比亚迪的合作关系，包括进行人工智能培训、汽车制造和车载计算。比亚迪将利用英伟达的平台在其制造工厂内开发和部署智能机器人，用于工厂规划，并利用其Omniverse实时3D图形平台来改善汽车购买者的购物体验。我们知道特斯拉是如何建立一个工厂，从中学习，然后对下一个工厂进行改进的。嗯，这个来自英伟达的Omniverse据说可以帮助公司在不实际建造真实工厂的情况下做到这一点。与此同时，比亚迪的董事长刚刚表示，这些任何一种产品在中国的普及率可能在未来三个月内超过50%。而中国政府则计划利用所有政策资源，打造一个中国制造的电动汽车供应链，督促三家国有汽车制造商加大在研发上的投入。北京很可能会让这些汽车制造商这样做，即使它们的利润受到影响。该倡议预计将包括采用半导体技术。比亚迪和中国的战略非常明确，公司需要尽快创造经济规模，并为自己的品牌开发竞争优势。

I have a lot more to say about Tesla and Nvidia, especially when it comes to data collection and how this might work across all of these different companies using Nvidia's infrastructure. So I'll keep filling in gaps in future episodes as I try to make sure that we don't leave any man behind. The way I see it, it's clear as day that over the next 10 plus years, Tesla and Nvidia are going to have absurd impacts on our society around the world. Plus, there will continually be more overlap and more competition, so understanding Nvidia is going to be important for us as Tesla investors to really understand what type of competitive advantage Tesla actually has. I'm sure most of you have seen with AI and compute, things are changing incredibly quickly.

我对特斯拉和英伟达有更多想说的，特别是涉及到数据收集以及如何在所有这些不同公司上使用英伟达基础设施的情况。因此，我将继续在未来的节目中填补空白，以确保我们没有任何人被遗漏。从我的角度来看，未来10年，特斯拉和英伟达将在全球范围内对我们的社会产生巨大影响，这一点显而易见。此外，将持续出现更多重叠和更多竞争，因此了解英伟达对于我们作为特斯拉投资者来说真正理解特斯拉究竟有何种竞争优势是很重要的。我相信大家已经看到，随着人工智能和计算能力的发展，事物变化迅速。

This one's interesting, we have a Canadian resident of China that's been arrested in the United States for allegedly stealing Tesla's trade secrets and conspiring to sell them to undercover law enforcement officers. The individual that was arrested was the operator of a China-based business that sells technology in used EVs. Luckily, he was arrested today in New York. These two gentlemen, Klaus and Yilong, built their business using trade secrets belonging to a leading US-based electric vehicle company, according to the prosecutors. Yilong has been charged but remains at large. Prosecutors did not name the US-based company but said it acquired a Canada-based manufacturer of battery assembly lines in 2019, which matches Tesla's acquisition of Hybar. Both of these two individuals are former employees of Hybar. This story is just breaking right now, so in the coming days, I'm sure we'll learn more about how far these trade secrets may have gotten.

这件事很有趣，我们有一个在中国居住的加拿大人在美国被捕，据称他窃取了特斯拉的商业机密，并策划将其出售给卧底执法人员。被捕的个人是一家在中国经营销售二手电动车技术的公司的经营者。幸运的是，他今天在纽约被捕。根据检察官的说法，这两位先生，Klaus和Yilong，利用了一个美国领先的电动车公司的商业机密来建立他们的业务。Yilong已被起诉，但仍在逃。检察官没有透露这家美国公司的名称，但表示该公司在2019年收购了一家加拿大制造商的电池生产线，与特斯拉收购Hybar的情况吻合。这两位个人都是Hybar的前雇员。这个故事正在发展中，我们肯定会在未来几天中了解这些商业机密走得有多远。

Tesla stock closed the day at $171.32 down 1.43% while the NASDAQ was up 0.39%. It was one of the lower volume days for Tesla as of late trading about 22 million shares below the average 30-day volume, which itself has dropped by about 9 million shares over the past few weeks. Low volume like this usually means markets waiting around to see what happens with the Fed this week. MKBHD just uploaded a 23-minute video talking about the Cybertruck, so if you're interested, it's out there. Hope you guys have a wonderful day. Please like the video if you did. You can find me on X-linked below and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.

特斯拉股价收盘于171.32美元，下跌了1.43%，而纳斯达克指数上涨了0.39%。最近，特斯拉的交易量较低，约为低于30天平均交易量的2200万股，这一平均交易量在过去几周下降了约900万股。像这样的低交易量通常意味着市场在等待本周联邦储备委员会的决定。MKBHD刚刚发布了一段关于Cybertruck的23分钟视频，如果你感兴趣，可以去看看。希望你们有一个美好的一天。如果你喜欢这个视频，请点赞。你可以在以下链接找到我，非常感谢所有我的Patreon支持者。