Tesla Director Interview / Cybertruck Production Jump / Tesla's Quiet Expansion ⚡️

Welcome to Electrified, it's your host, Dylan Loomis. Quick shout out to my newest patrons, Jeff A. And Tony DeVee. Thank you for choosing to support the channel.

欢迎来到《电动化》，我是您的主持人迪伦·卢米斯。特别感谢我的最新赞助者杰夫A.和托尼·德维。感谢您选择支持这个频道。

Recently, there was an interview on a German channel with Berlin's director of manufacturing, Andre Terek. It was really good even having to rely on the subtitles. Here are the takeaways. Gigabrelin is currently producing the first battery sub-components in Berlin, but they're being shipped to America for final assembly. So at least a portion of the 4680 cell factory is operating in Berlin, just not for Berlin.

最近，德国一个频道对柏林制造总监安德烈·特雷克进行了采访。即使要依靠字幕，也很不错。以下是要点。Gigabrelin目前正在柏林生产第一批电池子部件，但它们将被运往美国进行最终组装。因此，至少柏林的4680电池工厂的一部分正在运行，只是不是为柏林。

Andre confirmed the plan is to one day make the full 4680 cell in Berlin. He was asked about producing the Model 3 in Berlin, and he said the approval process is underway for the factory expansion. And he said, we may be a bit surprised with what Tesla can do. Clearly not a direct answer, but perhaps a hint. Later on, he also mentioned Tesla does, of course, have other products, not just vehicles. And so there are many production options that are conceivable for Gigabrelin, but more details to come.

安德烈确认计划是有一天在柏林生产完整的 4680 电池。有人问及在柏林生产 Model 3，他表示工厂扩建的审批流程正在进行中。他说，我们可能会对特斯拉的能力有些意外。显然不是直接回答，但也许是一个暗示。后来，他还提到特斯拉当然有其他产品，不仅仅是汽车。因此，在 Giga柏林有许多生产选项，但更多细节将会揭晓。

He confirmed, despite having around 12,500 employees, they're still finding it hard to hire enough skilled workers, and they still need to hire more. He spent a few minutes debunking all of the fun around Gigabrelin. He mentioned there are asparagus farms in Brandenburg that use more water than Tesla. Berlin recycles most of its water at its own wastewater treatment plant, and there are numerous other companies using orders of magnitude more water than Tesla is, even if Tesla were to use its full allotment, which right now, they don't.

尽管拥有大约12500名员工，他确认他们仍然很难雇住足够多的熟练工人，他们仍然需要雇住更多人。他花了几分钟来揭破所有有关Gigabrelin的有趣传闻。他提到勃兰登堡有些芦笋农场使用的水比特斯拉还要多。柏林在自己的污水处理厂对大部分水进行循环利用，除了特斯拉，还有许多其他公司使用的水量要比特斯拉多得多，即使特斯拉使用了全部分配的水量，但现在他们没有用完。

Andre said the forest that was cleared for Gigabrelin was originally created for the paper industry. Tesla has reforested the same amount of land that they cut down, and even better, they've done it with mixed forests and monocultures, and they went further in surrounding areas, planting trees and shrubs for a higher quality forest.

安德烈说，为建设Gigabrelin而清理的森林最初是为造纸业而建立的。特斯拉重新造林了他们砍伐的同样数量的土地，更棒的是，他们用混合森林和单一树种进行了重新造林，他们还在周边地区更进一步，种植树木和灌木，以打造更高质量的森林。

Andre talked about Tesla automation, the machine that builds the machine. So yes, Tesla is still actively building its own manufacturing equipment. This is for multiple uses, but primarily, he said it's for drive units and batteries. This company was formerly known as Tesla Gromen, now it's Tesla automation. It functions effectively as Tesla's own internal supplier, that's always on call. This equipment that's being custom made for Gigabrelin does ultimately go to Tesla's other factories globally as well.

安德烈谈到了特斯拉的自动化机器，即建造机器的机器。因此，是的，特斯拉仍在积极建造自己的制造设备。这些设备有多种用途，但主要是用于驱动单元和电池。这家公司以前被称为特斯拉格罗门，现在成为特斯拉自动化。它有效地作为特斯拉自己的内部供应商，随时待命。为Gigabrelin定制制造的这些设备最终也会被送往特斯拉在全球其他工厂。

Remember that Tesla AI girl on X that got FSD12.3, she was one of the first people, well, her account no longer exists. I have not been able to confirm exactly what happened here, but if you did not get a chance to, and you wanted to see that video, somebody did upload it to YouTube, so I'll have this link in the description below.

还记得那个在X上获得了FSD12.3的特斯拉AI女孩吗？她是第一个人之一，不过她的账户已经消失了。我无法确认发生了什么事，但如果你还没看过那个视频，想看的话，有人已经在YouTube上上传了，我会在描述栏里放上链接。

A Tesla safety PSA, after that Wall Street Journal report, the last few days of that very unfortunate death, for a while there was the thought that Tesla vehicles automatically would open your windows and doors when submerged in water. The thinking though, is that the sensor was actually for water inside the vehicle, and at a certain level inside, then the windows would automatically roll down. Potentially alongside the doors opening as well.

特斯拉安全警告，根据《华尔街日报》的报道，最近几天发生的非常不幸的事故之后，有一段时间人们认为特斯拉汽车会在被水淹没时自动打开窗户和车门。然而，实际上传感器是用来检测车内的水位的，当水位达到一定程度时，窗户会自动滚下来。可能还会同时打开车门。

I just wanted to clarify, that feature was never really confirmed, and unless it malfunctioned in this recent case with Angela Chow, then it's not actually a feature. Another gift we got for our family members for Christmas last year, in addition to the Fantic Tire inflator, was actually a tool to break your car window, in the event you're ever in that situation.

我只是想澄清一下，那个功能实际上从来没有得到确认，除非在 Angela Chow 最近的情况中出现了故障，那么它实际上不是一个功能。除了去年圣诞节我们给家人购买的 Fantic 轮胎充气器，还有一个工具，可以用来打破车窗，以防万一有这样的情况发生。

As expected, Elon is at Gigabrelin today, RBB24 with the report. They said production at Gigabrelin is rolling again. Elon was asked if he's committed to still expanding Gigabrelin, he said yes, absolutely, I think this is a great place.

正如预期的那样，埃隆今天在Gigabrelin，RBB24报道了这一情况。他们表示Gigabrelin的生产再次恢复。埃隆被问到是否仍致力于扩大Gigabrelin，他回答说是的，绝对是，我认为这是一个很好的地方。

This one's kinda funny, Elon gave a brief speech to some of the employees, there was some media in attendance, Elon said they can't stop us, and German he said I love you. The word is, Elon's speech was not meant to be made public. There was a company vehicle parked in front of the assembled media representatives with loud music, so that not a word could be heard. Plant manager Andre Tyrigge also encouraged the crowd, and he announced an annual salary change, saying they could rely on it. A collective agreement was not necessary, and he promised a bonus system saying, you're doing great things. Elon also met with some government heads who were touting the huge benefit of Tesla economically to the region.

这件事有点搞笑，埃隆向一些员工发表了简短的讲话，有一些媒体也在场。埃隆说他们没有办法阻止我们，他还说了一句德语我爱你。事实是，埃隆的讲话并不是为了公开发布的。在媒体代表的面前停着一辆公司车，放着大声音乐，使得没有人能听到一句话。工厂经理安德烈·泰里格也鼓励了在场的人群，并宣布了年薪调整，表示他们可以依靠。不需要集体协议，他承诺了一个奖金制度，称他们正在做很了不起的事情。埃隆还会见了一些政府领导，他们吹捧了特斯拉在该地区经济上的巨大好处。

Tesla's employee council chief said after the power was restored on Monday evening, the machines were checked and started up. The early shift today began work this morning. Elon and the team also touted providing vehicle leasing options to employees, improving transportation and shuttle services, among other improvements. On X, Elon said thanks to the hard work of the Tesla Gigabrelin team, and support from the community, the factory is back online. Given that the initial concern was that the factory might be without power until the end of this weekend, this would certainly be a win for Tesla. I think most importantly, this highlights that Elon and the Tesla team are still fully committed to expanding in Gigabrelin, despite all of the nonsense.

特斯拉的员工委员会主席在星期一晚上恢复电力后表示，机器经过检查后已经启动。今天早班从早上开始工作。埃隆和团队还宣传为员工提供车辆租赁选择，改善交通和班车服务等其他改进措施。在X上，埃隆表示，感谢特斯拉吉加布林团队的辛勤工作和社区的支持，工厂已经恢复正常运转。考虑到最初担心工厂可能在本周末前没有电力，这对特斯拉无疑是一次胜利。我认为最重要的是，这凸显了埃隆和特斯拉团队仍然完全致力于在吉加布林扩张，尽管存在一些胡言乱语。

Alex Voigt is reporting that during the Q&A at Gigabrelin, Elon said, I think it makes sense to produce the semi-truck in Europe at Gigabrelin as well. The word is, Hondelsblatt has the video where Elon mentioned this. Let me remind us all that Elon saying, I think it makes sense to produce the semi-truck in Europe is not the same thing as saying, Tesla will produce the semi in Europe. I'm not at all saying I don't think they will. Eventually, I would just say, we're probably a year away from volume semi-production in the United States. So we're going to have to deploy patients for this one if it comes true at all. Also during the speech, Elon said the next gen car will definitely come to Berlin in the longterm.

亚历克斯·福伊特报道说，在吉加布林举行的问答环节中，埃隆表示，我认为在吉加布林生产半挂车也是有道理的。据说《汉德尔斯布拉特》有埃隆提到这一点的视频。让我们提醒一下，埃隆说“我认为在欧洲生产半挂车是有道理的”并不等同于说特斯拉将在欧洲生产半挂车。我并不是在说我不认为他们会这样做。最终，我只能说，我们可能还有一年时间才能在美国大规模生产半挂车。所以，如果真的发生，我们就必须有耐心。此外，在演讲中，埃隆还表示下一代汽车肯定会在长期内来到柏林。

The first time Ashley and I took a road trip to Florida, this happened within the first three hours. Even after we got a new tire, they did not have a perfect match. The rest of the trip, we kept getting low tire pressure warnings, even after resetting everything. After that experience, I told myself, I will never not be prepared again. I ended up finding Fantic, who now sponsors the channel, and Fantic products have become a Christmas gift hit in our family. They just dropped this bad boy, the X9. That's designed for pickup trucks, jeeps and the like, and not only will it inflate something like an F-150 from 30 to 35 PSI in 40 seconds, but it also doubles as a light and triples as a power station. Now, it's not gonna power something like your dryer, but your phones, your drones, your laptops, et cetera. Fantic also has the X8 for smaller cars and EVs, and they have car vacuums too. Actually, and I love our X8, we keep it in the back of the Model Y, our family members loved it as a Christmas gift. Now, if you live a heavier duty lifestyle, Fantic has you guys covered as well. So, if you want some peace of mind and functionality, you can get 28% off using my link in the description below. Plus, they have a carrying bag you can grab as well. Stay safe out there.

当 Ashley 和我第一次一起去佛罗里达的时候，这事发生在前三个小时内。即使我们换了新轮胎，他们也找不到完美的匹配。整个旅程中，我们不断收到低胎压警告，即使重置了一切也没有用。经历之后，我告诉自己，我再也不会毫无准备了。最后我找到了Fantic，现在他们赞助我的频道，Fantic产品已成为我们家庭圣诞礼物的热门选择。他们刚推出了这款霸气款，X9，专为皮卡、吉普等设计，不仅可以在40秒内将像F-150这样的汽车从30到35PSI充气，而且还可以作为灯光和电源站。它可能不能为干衣机等提供电力，但可以为手机、无人机、笔记本电脑等提供电力。Fantic还推出了适用于小型车和电动车的X8，同时也推出了车用吸尘器。实际上，我喜欢我们的X8，我们把它放在 Model Y 的后部，我们的家人也很喜欢它作为圣诞礼物。如果你有更重的使用需求，Fantic 也为你提供解决方案。因此，如果想要平静和功能性，可以通过下方链接获得28%的折扣。此外，他们还提供一个随身携带包。在外面要注意安全。

I wanted to highlight on this chart from AJ on X, it shows free cashflow per car per company for 2023. I did check Tesla's numbers, they're correct. I just wanted to add the disclaimer, we have to remember at this point, Tesla's overall free cashflow number will include now some data from Tesla Energy. So it is true that when it comes to the metric free cashflow per car, Tesla is the leader by far. Just keep in mind, Tesla Energy can now contribute to increasing this figure for Tesla as well.

我想强调一下AJ的这张图表，显示了2023年每辆车每家公司的自由现金流量。我查过了特斯拉的数据，它们是正确的。我只想补充一下免责声明，我们必须记住，到了这一点，特斯拉的整体自由现金流量数字现在将包括一些来自特斯拉能源的数据。因此，事实上，就自由现金流量每辆车的指标而言，特斯拉明显处于领先地位。请记住，特斯拉能源现在也可以为特斯拉增加这一数字。

Okay, we've got a stock car with no flashers on, we've got a van with flashers on. It's gonna do it. Oh my God. Got a pedestrian. It's probably in this car. And it is that pedestrian was in that car and it's rutted that, that wasn't a needle, but that was challenging. Yeah, it got it. On X this morning, Chuck Cook said there are still Tesla eight ass drivers testing and validating version 12 on his unprotected left turn, to which Elon responded saying, gathering video training data over a wide range of adversarial conditions. This is one area where I think it'll be very interesting to see how things play out because previously with edge cases or the March of the nines, you'd have an engineer writing specific code, but with version 12, it's almost like Tesla's going to need to duplicate that very specific scenario, which may not always be possible. And we know Tesla has great simulated data capabilities, but as far as Elon said, they still rely on the real world training data. I think long term with V12, the expectation just becomes that if events that it's never actually seen specifically before happen, then by that time it has a good enough understanding of how to behave in general, that it can behave safely in that new scenario.

好的，我们有一辆没有闪光灯的赛车，还有一辆带闪光灯的货车。准备好了。天哪，有行人。可能是在这辆车里。那个行人就在那辆车里，车子被撞了，那不是针，但是挑战性很大。是的，撞上了。在今天早上的X节目中，Chuck Cook说还有特斯拉的自动驾驶车辆进行版本12的测试和验证，正在进行无保护的左转，对此埃隆做出回应，称正在收集在广泛的对抗性条件下的视频训练数据。我认为这是一个非常有趣的领域，以前边缘案例或者9的步进，工程师会编写特定的代码，但是在版本12中，几乎可以说特斯拉需要复制那个非常具体的情景，这并不总是可能的。我们知道特斯拉拥有出色的模拟数据能力，但就像埃隆所说，他们仍然依赖于真实世界的训练数据。我认为从长远来看，在V12，预期就是如果它从未见过的事件发生，那在那时，它已经对如何在一般情况下行为有足够的理解，可以安全地应对新的情况。

Speaking of Tesla testing and validating, we have Keys on X saying, another Tesla fleet validation vehicle spotted in Amsterdam. We're most likely still months away from FSD beta rolling out in Europe, but it's always encouraging to see these images as this is a required step in the process. Every now and then, I'll DM back and forth with Troy Tesla, and he gave me permission to share some of his Patreon only content when it comes to how he calculates Cybertruck production data using Vins. Let me be clear, this is not in any way a sponsored segment. I've personally been a paying patron of Troy now for some time. I think for $5, the value you get is pretty incredible. And I may not always agree with some of the conclusions he draws from the data, but there is nobody going deeper into the weeds, doing a better job tracking all of the available data we have, and I salute him for his work. It really is awesome that as Tesla investors, we get access to this type of content.

说到特斯拉的测试和验证，我们有X上的Keys报道，另一辆特斯拉车队验证车辆出现在阿姆斯特丹。我们很可能还需要几个月才能在欧洲推出FSD测试版，但看到这些图片总是令人鼓舞，因为这是流程中必不可少的一步。偶尔我会与Troy Tesla 私下交流，他允许我分享他在Patreon平台上的独家内容，特别是关于他如何使用VIN号计算Cybertruck的生产数据。让我明确一点，这绝对不是任何形式的赞助。我个人已经是Troy的付费赞助者有一段时间了。我认为以5美元的价格，你能得到的价值非常惊人。我可能并不总是同意他从数据中得出的一些结论，但没有人比他更深入地挖掘数据、更好地追踪我们所拥有的所有可用数据，我为他的工作表示敬意。作为特斯拉投资者，能够获得这种类型的内容真的很棒。

Each dot on this chart represents a Cybertruck VIN. As production ramps up, Tesla signs higher Vins every day. This chart shows that in quarter one, Tesla started production of the Cybertruck at VIN 700. Troy then plots the Vins throughout the quarter, and then he projects where things will go toward the end of the quarter at the top of the triangle. This is how he draws conclusions like expecting the VIN to reach 3,200 by March 31st, that would be 2,500 units for quarter one. But in the yellow Tesla skipped 100 VINs, so it's actually 2,400 units. Additionally, the VIN to production ratio isn't 100% because some Vins are discarded due to vehicle issues. Weighing all of those factors, that's how Troy is currently estimating around 2,040 Cybertrucks produced throughout Q1. Given 13 weeks in a quarter, that would be a weekly rate of 157 per week. Good news in a recent update, Troy has said that Cybertruck production has increased to a weekly rate of around 300. Given all of the new technology and the new manufacturing methods, we will take the progress.

这张图表上的每个点代表一个Cybertruck VIN。随着生产逐渐增加，特斯拉每天都会签发更高的VIN。这张图表显示，在第一季度，特斯拉从VIN 700开始生产Cybertruck。特洛伊然后在整个季度内绘制VIN，然后他预测事情将向季度末发展，顶部是三角形。这就是他得出结论的方式，比如预计VIN到3,200，3月31日前这将是季度一的2,500辆Cybertruck。但在黄色部分，特斯拉跳过了100个VIN，实际上是2,400辆车。此外，VIN到生产比例不是100%，因为一些VIN由于车辆问题被废弃。考虑所有这些因素，这就是特洛伊目前估计第一季度生产大约2,040辆Cybertruck的原因。考虑一个季度有13周，这将是每周157辆的速度。在最新的更新中，特洛伊表示Cybertruck的生产速率已经增加到每周约300辆。考虑到所有新技术和新制造方法，我们将继续取得进展。

Seriously though, if you guys like data and you want to understand Tesla on an even deeper level, I think the $5 to support Troy on Patreon is more than worth the investment. So much so that I'll have his Patreon linked below. Dan Ives said, we believe the risk reward is extremely compelling at these levels with the AI story and FSD making major strides at Tesla and represents evaluation that could exceed $1 trillion as this next chapter of the growth story plays out. First quarter units sluggish, but 2.1 million is still hitable for 2024. Meanwhile, Troy is saying, no, 2.1 million deliveries is not possible this year, 2 million is possible, but less than 50% likely. I just wanted to let everybody know both predictions have been added to the prediction tracker.

认真说，如果你们喜欢数据，并且想深入了解特斯拉，我认为花5美元支持Troy在Patreon上是非常值得的投资。我会在下方附上他的Patreon链接。丹·艾夫斯说，我们相信风险回报在这个水平上非常有吸引力，因为AI和FSD在特斯拉取得重大进展，代表了估值可能超过1万亿美元，因为成长故事的下一章正在展开。第一季度销售单元增长缓慢，但2024年仍然有望达到210万辆。与此同时，特洛伊表示，不，今年不可能交付210万辆，可能性是200万，但不到50%的可能性。我只是想让大家知道这两个预测都被添加到了预测追踪器中。

Tesla is still quietly expanding in the Austin region. They have land in Kyle, they have land in San Antonio, they have land in Hado, they have the lithium refinery, and they're not done. In the past few days, Tesla has now leased another 144,000 square feet, giving them over 1 million square feet across multiple buildings. We are expecting the 36,000 square feet in Hado to be for battery efforts. Then Tesla has around 440,000 square feet of warehouse space in San Antonio. Right now, Tesla has three job postings listed for Kyle, Texas, which is about 35 miles away from Giga Austin. A supply chain quality engineer, a supervisor for cell manufacturing, and a quality technician for cell batteries. I think it's pretty clear these facilities in Kyle and Hado will assist with the lithium refinery coming online, feeding supply into the 4680 production process, along with the cathode facility as well.

特斯拉在奥斯汀地区仍在悄然扩张。他们在凯尔有土地，在圣安东尼奥有土地，在哈多有土地，他们有锂精炼厂，而且还没有完全展开。在过去几天，特斯拉又租了另外144,000平方英尺，使他们在多栋建筑物中拥有超过100万平方英尺。我们预计哈多的36,000平方英尺将用于电池方面的工作。此外，特斯拉在圣安东尼奥拥有约440,000平方英尺的仓库空间。目前，特斯拉在德克萨斯州凯尔拥有三个职位空缺，该地距离Giga Austin约35英里。招聘的职位包括供应链质量工程师，电池制造主管以及电池质量技术员。我认为很明显，凯尔和哈多的这些设施将有助于锂精炼厂投入运营，向4680生产工艺提供供应，并与阴极设施一起工作。

As we mentioned, Tesla at the top of the program, but we haven't gotten back to this Wells Fargo downgrade. A growth company with no growth seems to be one of the key thesis they are laying out there. Growth in core markets has moderated with EU and China flattish in the last 12 months. US Downs is the second quarters as well. More concerning, they say, is the effect of price cuts are moderating with- I know it can be satisfying to poke fun of Colin Langen from Wells Fargo, the Tesla analyst, given the fact that his tip-ranked ratings are pretty much bottom of the barrel, half-star. Ranked number 8.3,000 out of about 8.8,000 Wall Street analysts. A lot of people are making a big deal out of this, but he's not really saying anything groundbreaking, or even anything that we haven't already known or been expecting.

正如我们之前提到的，特斯拉是节目的开头，但我们还没有回到富国银行的下调评级。一个没有增长的增长型公司似乎是他们提出的一个关键论点。核心市场的增长在过去12个月已经趋于稳定，欧盟和中国市场基本持平。美国市场也在第二季度下降。更令人担忧的是，他们说价格下调的影响正在减弱-我知道嘲笑富国银行的特斯拉分析师Colin Langen可能会令人满足，因为他的排名非常低，只有半颗星。他在大约8,000名华尔街分析师中排名第8,300名，很多人对此大惊小怪，但他实际上并没有说出什么创新的事情，甚至没有提出我们已经知道或预期的任何新观点。

I've been saying on the channel for weeks, I want everybody to at least be prepared for the possibility of more Tesla stock paying ahead in the months to come. It might be hard to hear, but as I've said, if Tesla's Q1 comes in below expectations from the financial side, things could get pretty ugly, pretty quick, and in my humble opinion, 120 given the current setup isn't really as crazy as some people are making it out to be, although it's never really fun to hear if you want the stock to go up right now. Auto dealers were pulled by Cox Automotive in the first quarter, dealers are making less money, and that really weighs a lot on the outlook. The Cox chief economist said, "'I think pent up demand is gone from the new vehicle market. "'Large dealers are panicking with increased inventory "'and are selling new cars at pre-pandemic losses "'to support their business models.'" One Honda dealer said, "'affordability is the biggest concern. "'Between higher average prices and higher interest rates, "'added in with negative equity from pandemic era purchases, "'we've priced a lot of folks out of the market.'"

我在频道上已经说了好几个星期，我希望每个人至少能为未来几个月更多特斯拉股票的可能性做好准备。这可能听起来有点困难，但正如我所说，如果特斯拉的第一季度财务表现低于预期，事情可能会变得相当糟糕，相当快速，而在我看来，考虑到目前的形势，120元并不像有些人所认为的那样疯狂，尽管要是你希望股价立即上涨，这可能听起来并不好听。汽车经销商在第一季度受到考克斯汽车（Cox Automotive）的影响，经销商赚钱较少，这对前景造成了很大的影响。考克斯首席经济学家表示：“我认为新车市场的憋闷需求已经消失了。大经销商正因库存增加而感到恐慌，并且正在以疫情前的亏损价位出售新车以维持他们的商业模式。”一位本田经销商表示：“支付能力是最大的问题。在平均价格上涨和利率上升的情况下，再加上疫情时期购买造成的负债形势，我们已经将许多人挤出了市场。”

GM is losing two of its senior executives, one to retirement, and the other one due to health reasons. GM is losing its executive vice president of global manufacturing and sustainability to retirement, and they're losing their executive vice president of software and services for health reasons. Toyota just agreed to give their factory workers their biggest pay increase in 25 years. They agreed to fully meet union demands for pay hikes at annual wage negotiations wrapping up today. Toyota said it agreed to the demands of a monthly pay increases of about $193 and record bonus payments, but they did not provide a percentage figure for the salary raise. Porsche has predicted a dip in profitability for 2024 due to new model launches and challenging economic conditions. They're anticipating an operating profit margin between 15 and 17% down from 18% the past two years. Porsche did say it's prepared to steer investments back to combustion engine cars if the EU delays its timeline for phasing out ICE vehicles. Oliver Bloom said 2024 is going to be a year of product launches for Porsche more so than any year in our history. Bloom also said we're overwhelmed by orders coming in for the electric Macon, we're confident it's going to be a hit.

通用汽车正在失去两名高级执行人员，一位是因为退休，另一位是因健康原因。通用汽车的全球制造和可持续发展执行副总裁因退休而离职，他们还因健康原因而失去了软件与服务执行副总裁。丰田刚刚同意给他们工厂工人25年来最大的工资增长。他们同意在今天结束的年度工资谈判中完全满足工会对加薪的要求。丰田表示同意月薪增加约193美元以及创纪录的奖金支付需求，但他们没有提供薪资涨幅的百分比。保时捷预测2024年由于新车型推出和经济形势严峻，盈利能力将会下降。他们预期经营利润率将在15%至17%之间，低于过去两年的18%。保时捷表示，如果欧盟推迟淘汰内燃机车辆的时间表，他们准备将投资重新引向内燃机车辆。奥利弗·布卢姆表示2024年将是保时捷产品推出年份，比我们历史上任何一年都要多。布卢姆还说我们收到的对电动Macon的订单让我们不知所措，我们相信它会大受欢迎。

In the four weeks since the new EV Macon made its debut, Porsche has received more than 10,000 orders for the car, a figure that does not count China, Taiwan or Japan. The gas powered Macon is the second best selling worldwide model in the entire Porsche family behind the bigger Porsche Cayenne. The electric Macon will be about $20,000 more expensive than the gas counterpart. Bloom said Porsche's product rollout will have the portfolios age from three years to 18 months. The EV Macon is supposed to arrive in US stores this summer and they're touting a zero to 60 time of 3.1 seconds. Porsche also confirmed they're developing a luxury flagship SUV that will be built in Germany. This will be on a newly developed Porsche platform that will support future models. They're calling it a style of vehicle that's parts of the day and part crossover. One dealer said it's very unporsh alike. It has a flat rear design. It's not anything like the Macon or the Cayenne.

自新款EV Macon首次亮相以来的四周里，保时捷收到了超过1万份订单，这个数字还不包括中国、台湾或日本。燃油动力的Macon是保时捷全家族中第二畅销的全球车型，仅次于更大的保时捷卡宴。电动Macon的价格将比燃油车型贵约2万美元。布鲁姆表示，保时捷的产品推出将使产品组合的年龄从三年降至18个月。EV Macon预计将于今年夏天进入美国商店，他们宣传的0至60英里加速时间为3.1秒。保时捷还确认他们正在开发一款豪华旗舰SUV，将在德国制造。这将是基于全新开发的保时捷平台构建的，将支持未来车型。他们称之为一种既有部分轿车特征又具备部分跨界特质的汽车风格。一位经销商表示它非常不像保时捷的车系。它具有平坦的后部设计，与Macon或卡宴完全不同。

Cadillac teased a V series electric vehicle titling it opulent velocity. It's designed to foreshadow a zero emission expression of performance in modern luxury leadership. The VW Group is only expecting a 3% rise in its vehicle sales this year and they're planning to launch a record 30 new or upgraded models during 2024. They said North America has the potential to become its biggest growth market in 2024. So VW expecting flat sales, meanwhile, we have Stellantis saying it's predicting a turbulent 2024. If you've been around the channel the past few weeks, you will have picked up on the steady drum beat that is almost every automaker expecting a turbulent and a challenging 2024. Initially, the word was that Polestar would launch its Polestar 3 around $83.9 thousand, but fast forward to today and they've decided to come to market at $73.4 thousand for the Polestar 3 long range all-wheel drive variant. That version is expected to start production during the second quarter of 2024 with customers taking delivery this summer.

凯迪拉克发布一款V系列电动汽车，称其为豪华速度。该款车旨在预示现代豪华领导力中的零排放性能表现。大众集团预计今年汽车销量仅将增长3％，并计划在2024年推出30款新车型或升级车型，创下记录。他们表示北美可能会成为其2024年的最大增长市场。因此，大众预计销量将保持平稳，而同时斯泰兰蒂斯表示预计2024年将面临艰难局面。过去几周，你可能已经注意到几乎所有汽车制造商都预测2024年将会是一个动荡和具有挑战性的一年。最初传言称Polestar将以大约83.9万美元的价格推出其Polestar 3，但如今他们决定以73.4万美元的价格推出Polestar 3长续航四驱版。该版本预计将在2024年第二季度开始生产，客户将在今年夏季交车。

At first, the Polestar 3 will be produced at Glee's factory in China starting in Q2. Then they're going to start production in South Carolina toward the middle of the year. They did say the Polestar 3 will only be eligible for the $7,500 credit when leased. Something to keep in mind when it comes to chip prices and availability, we have the information reporting that several executives, product managers and salespeople at cloud providers like Microsoft, AWS and Google are saying most of their customers are being cautious or deliberate about increasing spending on new AI services given the high price of running the software, its shortcomings in terms of accuracy and the difficulty of determining how much value they'll get out of it. Effectively saying that the hype has gotten ahead of what the technology can actually return in terms of value for the market. Thus, the industry may be approaching a time of a reassessment of the ROI for some of this AI and semiconductor spend.

起初，Polestar 3将在中国的Glee工厂生产，计划从第二季度开始。然后他们将在今年年中开始在南卡罗来纳州生产。他们确实表示，Polestar 3只能在租赁时获得7500美元的税收抵免。谈到芯片价格和供应的问题，我们获悉一些云供应商如微软、AWS和谷歌的高管、产品经理和销售人员表示，大多数客户在增加新的AI服务方面都持谨慎态度，因为运行软件的高昂价格、精度不足以及确定其价值有多大的困难。实际上，这意味着炒作已经超出了技术在市场价值方面实际带来的回报。因此，该行业可能正逐渐进入对一些人工智能和半导体支出的投资回报率进行重新评估的阶段。

Hey, figure one, what do you see right now? I see a red apple on a plate in the center of the table, a drying rack with cups and a plate and you standing nearby with your hand on the table. Great, can I have something to eat? Sure thing. Great. Can you explain why you did what you just did while you pick up this trash? On it. So I gave you the apple because it's the only edible item I could provide you with from the table. Great. So, based on the scene right now, I'm going to put the table on the table. Based on the scene right now, where do you think the dish is in front of you go next? The dishes on the table like that plate and cup are likely to go into the drying rack next. Great, can you put them there? Of course.

嘿，第一幅图，你现在看到什么了？我看到桌子中央一个盘子里有一个红苹果，一个装着杯子和盘子的晾碟架，还有你站在旁边手放在桌子上。太好了，我能吃点东西吗？当然可以。太好了。你能解释一下刚才你为什么做的事情，然后拿起这个垃圾吗？我明白了。所以我给你苹果是因为这是我能从桌子上提供给你唯一可以吃的东西。太好了。那么，根据现在的场景，我将桌子放到桌子上。根据现在的场景，你认为桌子上的碟子接下来会放在哪里？桌子上的盘子和杯子都很可能会放到晾碟架上去吧。太好了，你能把它们放在那里吗？当然可以。

Two weeks ago, figure and open AI said that together, they were going to develop next gen AI models for figures humanoid robots. This video is showing end-to-end neural networks. There's no tele operations here and they said this was filmed at 1X speed and was shot continuously. Figures onboard cameras feed into a large vision language model trained by open AI. Figures neural nets take in images at 10 hertz through the cameras on the robot. Then the neural net is outputting 24 degrees of freedom actions at 200 hertz. Brett added that figure is vertically integrating almost everything from motors to firmware, thermals, electronics, operating system, battery systems, actuator sensors and mechanical and structures. Not to diminish the progress they're making but just to highlight last year, Boston Dynamics actually integrated chat GPT4 into its spot robot. Welcome to Boston Dynamics. I am Spot your tour guide robot. Let's explore the building together.

两周前，Figure和Open AI表示他们将共同开发下一代AI模型，用于Figure的人形机器人。这个视频展示了端到端的神经网络。这里没有远程操作，他们说这是以1倍速拍摄的，并且是连续拍摄的。Figure的机载摄像头输入到由Open AI训练的大型视觉语言模型中。Figure的神经网络通过机器人上的摄像头以10赫兹的频率接收图像。然后神经网络以200赫兹输出24度自由度的动作。Brett补充说，Figure几乎在垂直整合从电机到固件、热力学、电子设备、操作系统、电池系统、执行器传感器以及机械结构等方面的所有内容。并不是为了贬低他们正在取得的进展，只是为了突出去年波士顿动力实际上将Chat GPT4集成到了它的Spot机器人中。欢迎来到波士顿动力。我是Spot，你的导游机器人。让我们一起探索大楼吧。

A figure engineer said their robot can describe its visual experience, plan future actions, reflect on its memory and explain its reasoning verbally. They're feeding images from the robot's cameras and transcribed text from speech captured by onboard microphones to a large multimodal model trained by open AI that understands images and text. The model processes the entire history of the conversation including past images to come up with language responses which are spoken back to the human via text to speech. This means to a degree that figure 01 can actually use common sense reasoning when making certain decisions like when it said the dishes on the table are likely to go into the drying rack next. This also implies figure 01 has a good short-term memory. So when you ask it questions like, can you put them there? The robot can actually discern what them refers to.

一位数字工程师表示，他们的机器人可以描述自己的视觉经验，规划未来行动，反思记忆并以口头方式解释推理过程。他们将机器人摄像头拍摄的图像和机器人麦克风捕获的语音转录的文本输入到由OpenAI训练的大型多模型中，该模型能理解图像和文本。这个模型处理整个对话历史，包括过去的图像，然后给出语言回应，通过文本转语音回馈给人类。这意味着figure 01在做出某些决策时实际上可以运用常识推理，比如说它认为桌子上的碟子可能下一步会放到烘干架上。这同时也暗示figure 01有很好的短期记忆能力。因此，当你问它类似“你可以把它们放在那里吗？”这样的问题时，机器人实际上可以区分出“它们”指的是什么。

To be transparent, I'm approaching all robotic developments whether it's Tesla's Optimus or anybody else with a healthy level of skepticism. The natural question becomes, when do we see Grok in Tesla? Which brings up one of these overhangs for Tesla stock? We need to get Elon back to 25% ownership so he can actually feel confident pushing forward with AI at Tesla. It would also be great for Elon to actually have that conversation that he said he would with Tesla's board of directors about Tesla investors having some skin in the game at XAI. And look, when you pair those uncertainties with all of the delivery expectations, the earnings per share cuts and everything going on with the macro, you can begin to see why we should be prepared for a tough year for Tesla.

为了透明起见，我对所有机器人技术的发展都持有一定程度的怀疑，无论是特斯拉的Optimus还是其他任何人。自然而然的问题是，我们何时能在特斯拉看到Grok呢？这就引出了特斯拉股票面临的一些悬而未决的问题之一。我们需要让埃隆重新持有25%的股权，这样他才能更有信心推动特斯拉的人工智能发展。埃隆也应该与特斯拉董事会就特斯拉投资者在XAI项目中参与的问题进行对话，这是他之前表示会做的。事实上，当这些不确定因素与所有的交付预期、每股收益的下调以及宏观经济形势等紧密联系在一起时，我们可以开始预计特斯拉将面临艰难的一年。

Tesla stock closed the day at $169.48 down 4.54% while the NASDAQ was down 0.54%. Rivian and Ellucid were also each down over 4%. It was an average volume day for Tesla trading about 5 million shares above the average 30 day volume. Don't forget, check out Fantic linked below if you're interested. Hope you guys have a wonderful day. Please like the video if you did. You can find me on X linked below and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.

特斯拉股价收于169.48美元，下跌4.54%，而纳斯达克指数下跌了0.54%。Rivian和Ellucid的股价也各下跌超过4%。特斯拉的交易量在这一天是平均水平，约为平均30天交易量的5倍。如果你感兴趣的话，别忘了查看下面链接的Fantic。希望你们有个美好的一天。如果觉得视频不错，请点个赞。你可以在下面找到我的X链接，对于所有我的Patreon支持者，我要表示万分感谢。