Welcome to Electrified, it's your host, Dylan Loomis, quick shout out to my newest patron, Tom M. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. Gigabrelin has been a very active place as of late. On Sunday we had some protesters, some were against Tesla's expansion at Gigabrelin, but a couple hundred were for it.
Those against, per the usual, citing fears about Tesla contaminating the drinking water. The estimated number of protesters against Tesla's expansion at number between 800 and 1000 on Sunday. The counter demonstration, those in solidarity, standing with Tesla numbered around 200.
There's still around 80 or so environmentalists camping out in that forest, and they're allowed to do this so far until March 15. Germany's Federal Network Agency, the one that's responsible for the infrastructure, said the legislator is currently working on the requirements for the security of critical infrastructure, including against physical threats. The aim is to further raise the level of security.
Beasy Berlin reported, in reality, Tesla is a water efficient consumer. The Tesla factories used a total of 451.7 thousand cubic meters of fresh water last year. 1.3 million was approved. Translation, last year, Tesla only used about one third of the water it's been approved to use. To further highlight the absurdity of Tesla being attacked, they said Tesla requires 2.25 cubic meters of water to produce one new car. VW requires 3.75 cubic meters.
Update, Gigabrelin has officially been reconnected to the grid. Tesla said, as soon as this happens, we will gradually start up the systems. It's not yet possible to say how long it'll take until production can be fully resumed. Whether Berlin resumes production this week or next week isn't super material given that Tesla's quarter one is already trending much lower than where Wall Street is expecting, so I would just say over the next few weeks, toward the end of the quarter, expect a significant number of Wall Street estimate cuts.
The official Wall Street estimate still sits around 474,000, but it's looking like Tesla may end up between 420 and 430,000. On that note, Deutsche Bank just said that they expect Tesla's first quarter deliveries to miss Wall Street expectations by a wide margin. For Q1, we lower our delivery estimate to 427,000 units down from 476,000 before. They cited slow model 3 plus production in the US and a slower Cybertruck ramp.
They also cut their full year delivery estimate to 1.96 million. The current Wall Street consensus is 2.1 million. With the new labor costs and margin dilutive Cybertruck coming online at the beginning of 2024, we expect Q1 margin to slide deeper on a quarter over quarter basis, with a limited room for improvement throughout the year. If there's a short term silver lining to be had between 1-2 years, the lower these expectations become for Tesla, the greater opportunity Tesla will have to surprise to the upside.
I cannot vouch for these accounts, so I would place this firmly in the rumor category for now, but they're saying that Chinese media are reporting Tesla's FSD beta in China is moving forward quickly with a tentative release target of this summer. Just keep in mind, these rumors have been going around now for months, however, I would note that X-Pang's Tesla-like FSD feature was just recently approved for a much wider rollout across China. I didn't want to gloss over that one, but last year, plenty of people were saying that Tesla was going to roll out FSD gradually in December of last year and that came and went.
My stance remains unchanged, I don't think Tesla will roll out FSD in any other countries until version 12 at least goes to a wide release in the United States. The way I see it, that's the first domino that has to fall, until that happens, everything else is just noise. There was an interesting article from the information talking about how many Tesla veterans people that used to work at Tesla have since left the company to start and work in higher up positions at other EVN battery companies.
One former Tesla employee said the experience made him think big, want to solve complex problems, and he had the confidence that he could succeed even if he failed once or twice along the way. A key question the information sought to answer with this project was why Tesla is so overrepresented at the top of other companies. One simple answer is that Tesla may simply attract Type A employees who naturally tend to want to run a company. Another is Tesla's Cashay.
To investors, the Tesla credential represents instant credibility for an entrepreneur raising money for a startup or for a startup hiring its first execs. But as you see throughout the article, Tesla seems to convince its employees that they can tackle the industry's biggest, most complex problems. The company cultivates a holistic understanding of the industry. Tesla veterans often think big in a way that's necessary to found a company.
Recently we talked about Pete Blades leaving Tesla for an aviation startup and he said that Tesla leverages its people. It really rewards pro activity. It does not diminish it. It does not stop it. It highlights the people that are gifted or skilled at what they do and they support it. That is the big difference. And for current Tesla employees, given that Tesla stock has now stagnated and been compressing for over three years, that means recent employees in the past three years most likely don't have that huge stock appreciation like people have in the past. One that'll keep them much more motivated to continue solving problems. And two, Tesla likely won't lose as much talent because those employees have not seen major stock appreciation, setting them financially free and leading them to pursue other ventures.
I've always thought it was interesting how many people will protect things like their cars, power tools, but not their most critical sensitive personal data. I always recommend using a VPN when using public Wi-Fi. You never know when a network is unsecured. The sad reality is you're probably not safe at your home either. Your internet service provider can track everything you do. That's why I've linked up with Surfshark VPN, the sponsor of this video. So many websites nowadays are using pretty sophisticated AI to do targeted advertising and a VPN can help protect you from some of that. We all hate those web pages that bombard you with ads and Surfshark has you covered here with its clean web feature that actually blocks these ads, trackers and malware. It also allows you to make it look like your IP address is coming from a completely different country.
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Good to know it can withstand 9 millimeter and 22 bullets so far. There's one to 17 hmr going two and a half times faster than the 22. And even though it's about the same size as the 9 millimeter, this one should go through. Oh yeah. Oh that went crazy. Okay, it went through the door panel, but it didn't go through anything else. One. A 50 cow does go all the way through the cyber truck door, but the window still worked. Edmonds, a publication that historically has been somewhat anti Tesla, actually said we've owned pretty much every car Tesla has ever made. And the cyber truck is the first time build quality meets expectations.
On the surface, this may not seem like much, but coming from Edmonds, it says a lot. Martin Vieja said we brought a cyber truck to the Morgan Stanley Conference in San Francisco yesterday. People seem to like it quite a bit. I wanted to bring this up to make a separate point. Now that we have some cyber trucks out in the wild and some videos are being posted, we're getting more authentic reactions from people around the cyber truck. Certain pockets of the internet, Reddit, and a few others would have you believe that the entire world hates the design of the cyber truck. But many of these reactions I'm seeing in these videos are super positive. People are excited, they're interested, and they're just generally drawn toward the vehicle.
Sure, maybe these uploaders are only sharing the good things, but I just want to say in a few years, if Tesla can produce more than 250,000 of these per year, and a celivariant between 50 and 60,000 dollars, Tesla should be able to comfortably exceed that 250,000 unit per year target. That's starting to feel more and more like a sandbag from Elon and co. And that's not just because of the looks, but it's the driving dynamics, it's the perceived interior quality, and the list of other features that people are raving about.
Over the weekend, some folks were sharing some source code about potential Model 3 ludicrous leaks, and they shared some data. I'll just tell you right now, personally, I don't think these are going to be the actual specs at all. The source code that was shared was saying a range of 310 miles, a top speed of 162, and a zero to 60 time of 3.2 seconds.
The range could be reasonable, but I think the acceleration would be a letdown for many given that the old Model 3 performance did 3.1 seconds. So maybe this source code was just being used as a placeholder, and it'll be updated in the future. If you look, it does say a long range all-wheel drive performance. I will say there is a chance that Tesla has spent significant engineering resources on the Model 3 ludicrous to make it a more track capable vehicle, not just focusing on straight line acceleration and speed.
Having said that though, I personally am not putting too much stock into these figures. Sources are telling drive Tesla Canada that Tesla plans to raise the price of the Model Y by $1000 on March 15th for the rear wheel drive and the long range variance only. Even if these price hikes take place, these vehicles will still qualify for the federal ISEV incentive as well as for the incentives in both Quebec and BC. Joe Tettmeyer gave us an update on Tesla's lithium refinery. He said the rotating kiln and cooler set are mostly installed now, and there appears to be a new electrical substation nearing completion too.
Right now, Tesla has about 40 open positions for the refinery on its careers page. It's always good to see progress, but the truth is this project is behind schedule. You may recall Tesla's senior manager of operations for this site. Jason Bavon said last year, we will begin commissioning the assets roughly at the start of next year, which would be 2024, and this momentum will continue in earnest during the first half of the year. Production will ramp up in the last half of 2024.
At the time, he also suggested the potential for expansion of this lithium refinery after phase 1 is ready. Based on these photos, my new expectation for the commissioning of this site wouldn't be until quarter 3 at the very earliest. I'm just guessing here, but I think we'll be comfortably into 2025 before we get any meaningful production from the lithium refinery. I've been trying to keep a closer eye on Tesla sales in Germany because toward the end of last year, they were on a downward trend. At least for February though, in Germany, the overall best-selling SUV was the Tesla Model Y.
Not only was it the best-selling SUV overall, but it was the best-selling fully electric vehicle for the month with 5.4 thousand units making up 19.7% of the BEV market share. Full BEVs made up 12.6% of the market in February. Martin Vieja shared the results of a Bloomberg survey from 2023. We talked about this quite a while back, he said. It's quite staggering that so many gas car owners are worried about charging and long trips, while the overwhelming majority of Tesla owners feel exactly the opposite.
This is where education through ads makes sense. I'll say this, I'm hoping that Tesla's head of IR is not finding out about this information for the first time over the weekend. These surveys are the type of thing Martin should have his notifications turned on for. The takeaway though is that more and more, Tesla's leaders are becoming aware that they need to do advertising to educate the next wave of adopters. This might sound weird, but it's one of the questions I'm most looking forward to having Tesla answer, hopefully toward the end of 2024. I would love to hear how some of their early advertising efforts are being received. And then ultimately after a year or so of running some of these ads heading into 2025, how do they feel about advertising in general and what type of success have they had. Being in the social media space, I've been thinking about this one a decent amount. The one thing I keep coming back to, I think there's a large portion of the population that already has their mind made up about electric vehicles and seeing an ad from the horse's mouth itself Tesla may not be enough to sway their thinking. I definitely think Tesla needs to spread the message about Model Y affordability and the IRA tax credits, but at this point I think there are certain narratives that might require a friend or a family member to own an EV and share their story for some of these people to actually change their mind. I'd be curious to know what you guys think about that one.
As it turns out, Tesla is going to enforce the no resale clause when it comes to the Cybertruck. The first person they're cracking down on is a Cybertruck Owners Club forum member. This individual just had his Cybertruck listed across multiple sites, he didn't even sell it. He was hoping for a big payout, Tesla got wind of these listings, he said he thinks it might have been the car gurus listing, then Tesla's loss and prevention team reached out to let them know their two other Cybertruck reservations had been cancelled and order fees refunded. Not only that, they have been blacklisted from ever ordering another Tesla. Tesla said in an email moving forward, any future orders placed by you will be cancelled without a refund of the $100 reservation or $250 order fee, as official notification has been provided to you regarding this matter. Personally, I would have much rather seen Tesla make an example of some of the bigger players like the CEO of that show me the VIN website that was quite literally trying to flip multiple Cybertrucks and run a small site operation. But hey, small player or large player rules are rules and Tesla is looking to send a message. I would just say, if Tesla's gonna punish this guy for not selling his truck, I definitely hope they follow through and punish all of the people who actually did sell their truck for a large profit.
结果显示,特斯拉将执行对于Cybertruck的禁止转售条款。第一个被打击的人是Cybertruck车主俱乐部论坛的成员。这个人刚刚在多个网站上列出了他的Cybertruck,他甚至没有卖掉它。他希望可以获得高额回报,特斯拉得知了这些上市的消息,他说他认为可能是汽车专家的上市,然后特斯拉的损失与预防团队联系他,通知他们他们的另外两个Cybertruck预订已被取消,订单费已退还。不仅如此,他们被列入黑名单,禁止再次订购特斯拉。特斯拉在一封电子邮件中表示,未来你下的任何订单都将被取消,不会退还100美元的预订费或250美元的订单费,因为官方已向您提供有关此事的通知。就我个人而言,我更希望看到特斯拉对一些更大的玩家做个示范,比如那个试图转售多台Cybertruck并且经营一个小网站的show me the VIN网站的CEO。但是,无论是小玩家还是大玩家,规则就是规则,特斯拉希望传达一个信息。我只能说,如果特斯拉要惩罚这个人没有卖掉他的卡车,我绝对希望他们也会惩罚那些实际上以大幅度获利卖掉卡车的人。
Responding to a post on X that shared a video showing Auto Park, Elon replied saying really cool stuff coming both this month and next. So potentially some exciting progress being made for Vision Only Teslas. Translation, fingers crossed for sometime this summer. Visual Capitalists shared this infographic showing the BEV market share for 2023. Tesla still led the way with 19.9% BYD in 2nd at 17.1%. Then there's everybody else. For last year, the top 10 BEV companies made up 65% of the overall fully electric market. Of that top 10, 4 of those are Chinese companies, 3 of them are German, 2 of them from South Korea and just Tesla from the US. GM and Ford, nowhere to be found. Tesla's manager of programs and data labeling said on X, I've never been more excited to work on autopilot and optimist than I have been the last couple of weeks. So much insane progress across both, such a crazy feeling to see the future I dreamed about become reality and to be part of making it possible is an incredible feeling.
Teslas scope asks the question, is there anything legally preventing Tesla from making FSD subscriptions available in Canada? Rohan Patel quote posted that saying Elon approved this Canada update and the team is working on the technical and regulatory procedures to make sure we don't trigger any unintended provincial issues. Barring any setbacks, I'd expect this in the coming weeks. I take responsibility for missing this one when the team flagged it for me many months ago, very much appreciate the Tesla community on X, advocating to get this done and I'm excited for more people to subscribe to FSD up north. The level of FSD improvement in terms of function and safety is really impressive and encouraging. You Canadians, the ever elusive FSD subscription feature is coming to you guys in the next few weeks.
Porsche just put out a press release highlighting their new Ticon Turbo GT, as the most powerful series production Porsche of all time. It starts at $232,000, it'll do 0-60 in about 2.1 seconds, top speed 190 miles per hour. This car did a blistering lap at the Nurbriggering 18 seconds faster than the Model S plaid. It has over 1000 horsepower and as we talked about weeks ago it has a much improved charging curve as well. There's a bigger 105kWh battery, new thermal management and a heat pump. There's a new push to pass function that boosts power by up to 70kW for 10 seconds. This vehicle set another record at the Laguna Seica Raceway in California. Previously, the Model S plaid had the record of about 1 minute in 30 seconds but the Ticon GT just did 1 minute in 27 seconds. The first models are expected at US dealers this summer. Now yes, the Model S plaid is much more affordable and is still faster 0-60 but when it comes to track performance, this is the new car to beat. So Tesla Elon Inc. You're up again.
保时捷刚刚发布了一份新闻稿,强调他们的新Ticon Turbo GT是有史以来最强大的系列生产保时捷。起价为23.2万美元,它可以在大约2.1秒内完成0-60英里,最高时速达到190英里。这款车在纽博格林赛道上的圈速比Model S plaid快了18秒。它拥有超过1000马力,并且正如我们几周前所讨论的,它的充电曲线也得到了很大改进。这款车配备了更大的105千瓦时电池,新的热管理系统和热泵。还有一个新的推动功能,可以在10秒内将功率提高高达70千瓦。这款车在加利福尼亚的拉古纳赛道创造了另一项记录。之前,Model S plaid的纪录是大约1分30秒,但Ticon GT只用了1分27秒。预计这款车将在今年夏天首批抵达美国经销商处。是的,Model S plaid价格更实惠,而且仍然在0-60方面更快,但在赛道表现上,这款新车是要被挑战的。所以特斯拉伊隆公司,你们又有竞争对手了。
A Tesla Cybertruck engineer took the 2023 result of the most American made cars index and said Cybertruck may tie the number one spot on the American made index. Rohan Patel said more American than the F-150 Silverado or RAM? Yes. And Rohan clarified most American made vehicles of any type with or without emissions. A fun fact, a single Tesla keycard can be paired with any Tesla vehicles meaning your keycard is not limited to one single car. On X-Elan said it's become basically illegal to do major construction projects fast in America.
Rohan added, the road to slow or no infrastructure is paved with good intentions. Taking government money usually requires an array of social policy objectives proven to slow or kill a project. We've had many governments globally visit Tesla to learn how we've been able to build fast and efficiently. He then went on to share a bit of Tesla strategy but then concluded utility permitting and interconnection is badly in need of technology and regulatory reform. It's basically broken and increasingly holding back economic progress. Like I'm trying to park next to this grass as close as possible but it's really hard to judge to be honest if we hit the front facing camera. We are so far away from that and it doesn't even look like it. Like the Cybertruck front facing camera is so needed because just the shape of it.
Like look at this, I feel like we're driving in the grass but the front facing camera is confirming that we're not. Like it feels like we're in the grass. I'll be freaking out. Like we just hit the tip. So you can park perfectly every single time and since the Cybertruck is such a beast it is huge. That comes in handy. Heinrich Zane posted an update of the Tesla Semi factory at Giganovada and so far the progress has been very slow. So far it seems like the only progress that's been made has to do with some site grading and potentially putting some drainage in place. The last official update we got from Tesla was that Semi production was going to enter volume production at the end of 2024 but based on this video update I personally am now pushing that back sometime into Q1 or Q2 of 2025 and to be honest looking at the status of the site right now that even feels a bit optimistic.
Tesla will be starting a fatal autopilot trial on March 18th. The good news is previously Tesla has already won two similar cases but they're saying this time around the plaintiffs have a new line of legal attack. The plaintiffs lawyers have testimony that before the accident Tesla never studied how quickly and effectively drivers could take control of autopilot if it were to accidentally steer toward an obstacle. One witness testified that Tesla waited until 2021 to actually add a driver monitoring system but Tesla argues the individual that died in this instance was playing a video game just before the accident. They're saying Tesla faces at least a dozen such suits right now eight of which involve fatalities. Tesla has said there is no dispute that had the driver been paying attention to the road he would have had the opportunity to avoid this crash. Yet again though the plaintiffs main argument is that Tesla's driver monitoring system was ineffective and resulted in the driver becoming complacent. And listen maybe it's just me but I don't need a camera monitoring me to make sure that I stay vigilant anytime I'm behind the wheel of a vehicle. So far Tesla has successfully been beating back these cases so one by one hopefully they'll continue knocking off any new evidence that these lawyers come up with. So far any new line of attack has not been able to break through Tesla flat out saying the driver is ultimately always responsible.
Toyota is buying out longtime partner Panasonic for full ownership of their 28 year old battery making joint venture Prime Earth EV. A Toyota spokesman said we wanted Prime Earth to take on the manufacturing of a wider range of EV batteries. Toyota said the purchase should be completed in late March it did not disclose a transaction price. Toyota is gearing up for its next gen of full bev's that's going to start with the Lexus lineup in 2026. Toyota is doubling down they said they've outlined five new batteries that will debut by the end of the decade. They'll kick it off with a next gen lithium ion battery that will double the range of the current pack used in the Toyota bz4x. Next up is a bipolar LFP battery that's going to boost range by 20% over today's bz4x and reduced the cost by 40%. After that it'll have a nickel based battery ready by 2027 that's going to improve the range by 10% over a 621 mile range planned battery that's supposed to arrive in 2026. They're still touting to all solid state batteries for 2027 saying 745 miles with the one and a second more advanced one in 2028 indicating a driving range of around 932 miles. Honestly this reads more like a comic book then an actual plan from one of the largest automakers on the planet.
Brandon Williams uploaded a pretty thorough video of the Cybertruck base camp so if you're interested in seeing the nitty-gritty here I'll have this video linked below. It should be noted Tesla's head of product design did get into it a little bit with Fred from Electric he said the picture shown in the electric article is not properly nor fully set up they literally posted the worst possible picture they could find when set up properly the tent looks great when stowed it hides neatly under the tonneau cover avoiding arrow drag when driving. The tent looks pretty good in this video from Brandon so maybe typical Fred up to no good. Don't mind my charting here I'm working on a little something Tesla stock closed the day at $177.77 up 1.39 while the Nasdaq was down 0.41%. It was a lower volume day for Tesla trading about 17 million shares below the average 30-day volume. Don't forget check out Surfshark linked below if you haven't already I appreciate you guys supporting the channel in that way. Hope you have a wonderful day please like the video if you did you can find me on X linked below and a huge thank you to all of my patreon supporters.