EXCLUSIVE: Dunne's Tesla Prediction: A Move That Will Stun Investors! - YouTube

Tesla already sustained continued that same price war here in the United States with the objective of putting maximum pressure on other EV startups as well as on the legacy automakers. And guess what? It's working. Tesla proactively and deliberately intentionally is driving this price war to drive its competitors out of the business. Some of the most important questions for Tesla investors these days are which electric vehicle companies will still be around in five years and why? Tesla has proven how electric vehicles are better in many ways, but will legacy automakers heavily promoting hybrids instead succeed? Who better to ask these questions than Michael Dunn? An expert in the auto industry who's lived and worked in both the East and the West for decades. Michael will share two very important points you've not heard yet. First, his prediction that Tesla will be launching a price war in the US. And second, there's an electric vehicle company and underdog who might end up winning it all.

特斯拉目前在美国持续进行同样的价格战，旨在对其他电动汽车初创公司和传统汽车制造商施加最大压力。而猜猜呢？它确实起作用了。特斯拉主动且蓄意地驱动这场价格战，以将竞争对手驱逐出市场。如今对于特斯拉投资者来说，最重要的问题之一是哪些电动汽车公司将在五年后仍然存在，以及为什么？特斯拉已经证明了电动汽车在很多方面都更好，但传统汽车制造商大力推广混合动力车型会获得成功吗？问这些问题最合适的人莫过于迈克尔·邓恩了。作为汽车行业的专家，他在东西方都生活和工作了几十年。迈克尔将与大家分享两个迄今为止未曾听说的重要观点。首先，他预测特斯拉将在美国发起价格战。其次，有一家电动汽车公司是一个局外人，却有望最终胜出。

Michael Dunn is the CEO of Dunn Insights, an advisory firm with expertise in global electric vehicle markets and battery supply chains. Dunn is also an LP at Assembly Ventures, a Michigan-based venture capital company. Dunn was previously the president of GM Indonesia, and before that, the managing director of JD Power Operations in China. Welcome, Michael. Thank you so much for joining me. Thank you for having me. I've been looking forward to this for many weeks. Thank you very much.

迈克尔·邓恩是邓恩洞察公司的首席执行官，该公司在全球电动汽车市场和电池供应链方面具有专业知识。邓恩还是密歇根州风险投资公司Assembly Ventures的一名有限合伙人。邓恩之前曾担任通用汽车印尼分公司总裁，之前还曾是中国JD Power运营总监。欢迎，迈克尔。非常感谢您的加入。谢谢您邀请我。我已经期待这个访谈很多周了。非常感谢。

And me also, I've heard about you. You've come with a great reputation. You're very cool, man, because you worked in Asia for 25 years. You're both an entrepreneur and executive, and you speak many languages. You're the author of a book called American Wheels, right? And sort of how China is a GM entering into Chinese roads. That's right. American Wheels, Chinese roads, the stories, the triumphs, and the setbacks of General Motors in China over a period of like 15 years when they really had it going on, and then they didn't have it going on anymore. Fantastic story.

我也听说过你。你声名远扬。你很酷，因为你在亚洲工作了25年。你既是企业家又是高管，而且能讲多种语言。你是《美国轮子》这本书的作者，对吗？讲述了通用汽车进入中国市场的故事。没错，《美国轮子，中国之路》，讲述了通用汽车在中国取得成功和挫折的故事，这段时间里他们一度有过辉煌，后来又走下坡路。这是一个很棒的故事。

So first question I want to understand better because this is pretty provocative. You have a prediction that Tesla is going to have a price war in the US. Why are you saying this? You know, I remember if a lot of people these days ask me, are we already in World War III, but we don't know it yet? And they're, of course, talking about places like Ukraine and the Middle East, but the same applies to global markets when it comes to electric vehicles. What we saw is about 18 months ago, Tesla launched a very aggressive price war in China. And because it was market leader, it forced all other players eventually to follow suit. And ever since then, prices have been dropping. They haven't stopped dropping in China.

我想更好地理解第一个问题，因为这相当具有挑衅性。您预测特斯拉将在美国发动价格战。您为什么这么说呢？我记得很多人最近问我，我们是否已经进入了第三次世界大战，只是我们还不知道？当然，他们谈论的是乌克兰和中东等地方，但相同的情况也适用于电动汽车的全球市场。大约18个月前，我们看到，特斯拉在中国发动了一场非常激烈的价格战。由于它是市场领导者，最终迫使其他所有竞争对手效仿。从那时起，价格一直在下降。在中国，价格还没有停止下降。

Then last year, we saw the war expand to Europe, where Tesla, again, in addition to many Chinese automakers went in and scared the daylights out of European automakers with their very aggressive pricing so much so that the EU Commission launched last fall. A major anti subsidy pro looking at products coming out of China. So we're here in our comfortable bubble called the United States, the exceptional market. And we think we're impervious to what's happening around the world until it lands on our shores. Well, guess what? Tesla in my mind has already sustained continue that same price war here in the United States with the objective of putting maximum pressure. On other EV startups, as well as on the legacy automakers. And guess what? It's working. One only has to look at what's happened recently with Rivian shares with Fisker on edge. No one's safe.

然后去年，我们看到战争扩大到了欧洲，在那里，特斯拉再次以及许多中国汽车制造商进入，并以非常激进的价格吓到了欧洲汽车制造商，以至于欧盟委员会在去年秋天发起了一场重大的反补贴运动，关注中国产品的出口。所以我们在这个舒适的叫做美国的泡泡里，认为我们对世界发生的事情漠不关心，直到它登陆我们的海岸。好吧，猜猜看？在我看来，特斯拉已经在美国继续维持这场价格战，目的是对其他电动汽车初创公司以及传统汽车制造商施加最大压力。而且猜猜看？它是奏效了。只需要看看最近发生的关于Rivian股票和Fisker的情况，就知道没有人是安全的。

And we see the global legacy automakers saying, there's no way we can compete on EVs right now or too expensive. We're losing a lot of money. Let's pivot back to something else. The good old days of maybe hybrids or plug in hybrids. So Tesla proactively and deliberately intentionally is driving this price war to drive its competitors out of the business. So you actually think that there's going to be additional price cuts by Tesla in the US. Is that what you're expecting? We have not hit bottom yet. That's exactly what I'm expecting. And Elon seems comfortable with it. He understands exactly what he's doing. Just the other day he posted a chart of Rivian cash flows and said, give it another six to nine months. And who knows? Never mind, lose it.

而我们看到全球传统汽车制造商表示，我们现在无法在电动汽车领域竞争或者成本太高。我们正在亏损很多钱。让我们转回到其他领域，或者好旧时光，或许插电式混合动力汽车。所以特斯拉主动并故意地发起这场价格战，以将其竞争对手赶出市场。所以您实际上认为特斯拉会在美国进一步降价。这是您的预期吗？我们还没有触底。这正是我的预期。埃隆似乎对此感到很舒适。他完全明白自己在做什么。就在几天前，他发布了一份Rivian现金流图表，并表示，再给它六到九个月。谁知道呢？别在乎，赔吧。

So every time someone leaves the market, it's good news for Tesla. Apple this week announced, electrics are too hard. Also good news for Tesla. So it's a little bit counterintuitive. Herbert, on the one hand, traditionally in the auto business, you say, you never want to cut prices because you can never move them back up. But what if you cut prices so aggressively that you push the competition out and then you've got a quasi monopoly allowing you to creep your prices back up to better margins. And that's exactly what I see playing out with Tesla here in the United States. I do have to ask you this question because this announcement came this morning. Stella Lee, president of BYD in America was interviewed and she said BYD has no intention of going into America this year, probably because of the political election is happening.

所以每当有人离开市场时，对特斯拉来说是个好消息。本周苹果宣布，电动车太难了。对特斯拉也是好消息。所以这有点违反直觉。 赫伯特，在传统汽车业务中，你从一方面讲，永远不要降价，因为你永远无法再提上去。但如果你降价得如此激烈以至于将竞争者挤出市场，那么你就拥有了准垄断地位，可以逐渐提高价格以获得更好的利润率。这正是我在美国看到的特斯拉正在实现的情况。我不得不问你这个问题，因为这个公告是今天早上发布的。BYD在美国的总裁李斯特拉接受了采访，并表示BYD今年没有进入美国的意图，或许是因为正在进行的政治选举。

But they have set up shop. They've got a factory in Mexico. They have a factory in Brazil that they've announced. They just launched a supercar or announced that yesterday they've announced a $11,000 card that's going to be sold in China. What's your expertise? Are we going to see BYD coming into the US and is it going to be head to head with BYD and Tesla in the US? There's no doubt in my mind that it's a question of when, not if, I mean for a couple of reasons. One, the United States remains the most lucrative market in the world. So if you're an automaker like BYD and you're looking around for growth and profits, the US has got to be on your list.

他们已经在这里开设了店铺。他们在墨西哥设立了一家工厂。他们在巴西也有一家工厂，他们已经宣布了。他们刚刚推出了一款超级跑车，或者昨天宣布了他们即将在中国销售一款价值11000美元的汽车。你有什么专长？我们会看到比亚迪进入美国市场吗？它会与特斯拉在美国市场展开竞争吗？毫无疑问，我认为问题不在是否，而在何时。我是这么认为的原因有几个。首先，美国仍然是世界上最具利润的市场。因此，如果你是像比亚迪这样的汽车制造商，正在寻求增长和利润，美国必须是你的目标之一。

Now, having said that, the Chinese will be very patient. They're doing exceptionally well in other markets around the world. BYD, as you said, is building plants today in Brazil and old Ford plant that they're reconverting for BYD production. They're building a brand new plant in Hungary to serve the European market. They have a plant in Thailand where their market leader accounting for almost half of EV sales there. And there's a lot of talk about a plant coming in Mexico as well as in Indonesia. So in a sense, in Chinese history, Mao Zedong when he fought the Civil War with Chiang Kai-shek, he said, Hey, our strategy is to take the countryside and surround the cities.

现在，说到这一点，中国人将会非常耐心。他们在世界其他市场表现得非常出色。正如你所说，比亚迪正在巴西建厂，并将一家老福特工厂改造为比亚迪生产基地。他们正在匈牙利建造一座全新工厂，以满足欧洲市场的需求。他们在泰国有一家工厂，市场领先，占据了该国近半的电动汽车销量。关于在墨西哥和印度尼西亚建厂的传言也很多。所以从某种意义上说，在中国历史上，毛泽东与蒋介石进行内战时，他曾说，嘿，我们的战略是占领农村，包围城市。

Well, as that applies to us here in the United States, BYD and Chinese other Chinese automakers are attacking and doing very well in the countryside. And eventually we'll come back to the city, that being the North American market. But I would say we're at least two, three years away from that. Okay, but we have to prepare for that. So there's a lot of conversation here. I want to ask you questions about the, like you were telling me, teaching me about the drive trains. There's hybrids. There is this thing called extended range. Well, we teach folks, but I want to get to this topic that you shared with me that there is an electric vehicle company that you believe is an underdog and has potentially something that we need to be aware of.

在美国，比亚迪和其他中国汽车制造商正在乡村地区蓬勃发展。最终他们会回到城市，也就是北美市场。但我认为至少还需要两到三年的时间。好的，但我们必须为此做好准备。我们正在讨论这个话题。我想问你一些关于你教我的动力传动系统的问题。有油电混合动力车，还有所谓的增程式电动车。我们会向大家教授，但我想谈谈你分享给我的那个你认为是一个弱势选手的电动车公司，他们可能有一些我们需要注意的东西。

And that many of us Tesla investors are probably not paying attention to tell me who that is and more about it. This company would be very, very easy to overlook. No one would blame you for overlooking them, but I call them the greatest underdog story in the history of the automobile. And that is been fast. The Vietnamese EV startup that was founded by Vietnam's richest man of billionaire named his name. I'm sorry, Vietnam's richest man of billionaire Chairman, his story is a fascinating one. But what we need to know about the company is that they're hell bent on being a global player.

而我们许多特斯拉投资者可能并没有注意到告诉我那是谁以及更多关于它的信息。这家公司很容易被忽视。你忽视它，没有人会责怪你，但我称他们为汽车史上最伟大的一次弱势势力故事。这家越南电动汽车初创公司是由越南首富的亿万富翁创立的。抱歉，越南首富的亿万富翁董事长的名字。他的故事令人着迷。但关于这家公司我们需要知道的是，他们非常执着于成为全球性的参与者。

They have a beautiful billion dollar manufacturing facility that they built four years ago and high phone just east of Hanoi. I've been to Vietnam several times in the last couple years, most recently at the end of last year, and I've driven their cars. Each time I visit, their cars get better and better. Now, why do I say underdog? One, Vietnam, Mr. Vong and his team had zero automotive experience prior to launching this company six years ago. Zero. Second, Vietnam's domestic market is not that big. It's quite small. So unlike China or Korea or Japan, Vietnam cannot rely on its home market sort of as a safe base from which to take market share at home in the next sport.

他们在四年前建造了一个价值数十亿美元的制造工厂，位于河内东部。我在过去几年里多次去过越南，最近一次是去年年底，我开过他们生产的汽车。每次我去，他们的汽车都越来越好。那么，为什么我说他们是弱势集团呢？首先，越南Vong先生和他的团队六年前成立这家公司之前没有任何汽车经验。零经验。其次，越南国内市场并不大。相当小。所以与中国、韩国或日本不同，越南无法依赖国内市场作为一个安全基地来在国内市场上占据市场份额。

So really what their big bet is, is that they'll be globally competitive in several markets at the same time. That's a huge wager. And that's why I called them an underdog, but the Chinese, excuse me, the Vietnamese are tenacious. They never give up. They're always sort of adjusting, improving, finding a way to win. So on paper, they look like a small player that we can ignore, but I wouldn't underestimate their tenacity and their commitment, their determination to find a way to win. And then I heard above VINFASO last year because they were like the stock skyrocketed. I just looked at the low 60, 70 dollars, but then it fell all the way down to $6. And so what happened there? And should we still be concerned about them when the stock got excited and then there's less interest at this point? Right. So that's a classic case. I think of a Wall Street play where the stock is listed as a SPAC and then the valuation goes through the roof. It's thinly traded. Stay away from that because you don't know exactly what's going on. Wait till it's more widely traded than we find our balance. Now, when I say the greatest underdog story in the history of the automobile, there's a lot for VINFASO to overcome. And I think today it's probably fairly valued. It was way too highly valued before. Now it's come back to earth.

因此，他们的重大赌注实际上是希望在几个市场上同时具备全球竞争力。这是一项巨大的赌注。这也是为什么我称他们为一支弱势队，但是越南人，不好意思，越南人是坚韧不拔的。他们从不放弃。他们总是在调整、改进，寻找获胜之道。因此，从理论上看，他们看起来像是一个我们可以忽略的小玩家，但我不会低估他们的坚韧和承诺，不低估他们寻找获胜之道的决心。然后我去年听说VINFASO，因为他们的股价飙升。我记得它起初在60、70美元左右，但后来跌至6美元。那么发生了什么？在股价飙升后，我们是否仍应担忧他们，而现在对他们的兴趣减少了？对。这就是一个经典的华尔街故事，其中有一支股票作为SPAC上市，然后估值飙升。由于交易量较小，最好远离这种股票，因为你并不确定具体情况。等到它被更广泛交易，我们再找到平衡点。现在，当我说汽车史上最伟大的弱势队队史时，VINFASO要克服很多困难。我认为今天它的估值可能是合理的。之前它估值过高，现在已回到现实。

What we are seeing though is some new developments from VINFASO. As we speak, VINFASO is appointing new dealers here in the United States. The plan is to appoint more than a hundred this year to 2024. And that's a step change. Up until now, VINFASO has tried to duplicate the Tesla model by selling through their own stores here in California. Beginning in 2024, they're going wide. They're saying, we need to be national and we need to have franchise partners. So that's a huge strategic shift and we'll see. We'll begin to get traction. One of the things they've done since the beginning of the year is start to offer their cars with a $249 per month lease. I mean, that's an extremely attractive offer and VINFASO reports that its sales are jumping right now in places like California in particular. So don't count them out. I think the thing is, you know, are they the Tesla? No. Will they be a Tesla? It took Tesla 15 years. They're on your five. So it's early days, but it's an exciting company watch because they're so competitive and they never give up.

然而，我们现在看到的是VINFASO的一些新动向。就在我们说话的同时，VINFASO正在美国任命新经销商。计划是在今年到2024年任命100多家经销商。这是一次重大转变。直到现在，VINFASO一直试图通过他们自己的店铺在加利福尼亚州销售以复制特斯拉模式。从2024年开始，他们将走向更广泛。他们表示，我们需要做到全国化，需要合作伙伴。因此，这是一个巨大的战略转变，我们将开始看到效果。他们自年初以来做的一件事是开始以每月249美元的租金提供他们的汽车。我是说，这是一个非常吸引人的报价，VINFASO报告称，他们的销售目前在加利福尼亚等地区特别是飙升。所以不要忽视他们。我认为问题是，你知道吗，他们是特斯拉吗？不是。他们会成为特斯拉吗？特斯拉花了15年。他们才过了5年。所以现在仍然是早期阶段，但这是一家令人兴奋的公司，因为他们如此有竞争力且从不放弃。

I'm reminded her of visits to Vietnam in the early 90s when I went there. And I got down into the, have you heard of the Kuchit tunnels before? No. And so the Viet Cong during the Vietnam War was big cities, basically cities underground and they lived down there, cook food, sleep. And today as a tourist, you can go down into the tunnels and make your way around these cities. Well, I went down one time. That was enough. You make your way through this tunnel. It's so tight that there's no turning around. It's so tight. It gets very hot and humid. And then you can't see the exit. So if you have any paranoia about tight spaces, don't go down there. But my takeaway was this people, the Vietnamese, don't mess with them. The Chinese got their butts kicked by that. The French did. The Americans had our hands full with them. The Vietnamese are tough, tenacious people. So that's why I feel like it's an invisible metric. You can't. You look at the sales, you look at the problem, you know, no, they're not going to. Hang on. They might just surprise all of us.

我想起了自己在90年代初访问越南时的经历。你听说过库奇特隧道吗？没有。所以在越南战争期间，越共在地下建立了大城市，他们在那里生活、做饭、睡觉。今天作为旅游者，你可以进入这些隧道，探索这些城市。我曾下过一次去。那就足够了。穿过这条隧道时非常狭窄，没有转身的余地。非常炎热潮湿，你看不到出口。所以如果你有幽闭恐惧症，最好不要下去。但我得到的启示是越南人不好惹。他们打败了中国人、法国人，美国人也和他们斗得难解难分。越南人是坚韧顽强的民族。所以我觉得这是一种看不见的评判标准。你看销售额，看问题，你知道，不，他们不会。等一下。他们可能会让我们所有人都感到惊讶。

That is very interesting. I just took a look at Vintvast. So I wanted to ask you, like, what is going to make a successful car company today? Right? So you have to be in electric vehicles. Vintvast is certainly in electric vehicles, but they started to sing also with some combustion engine vehicles. So they're not a pure play. I thought they were. How did they transition? Are they transitioning? What's their plan? They have. They have. They pivoted very abruptly. So they did start. How do you start a car company when you don't know anything about it? Well, the chairwoman out in the hired several veteran executives from the auto industry, many from General Motors, and said, first of all, I need a car, I need a factory, need a supply chain. And in quick order, 2016, 2017, 18, they did that. And the initial play was to borrow on some platforms from BMW and Opel.

这很有趣。我刚刚看了一下Vintvast。所以我想问你，现在要做成一家成功的汽车公司，需要什么？对吧？你必须要进入电动汽车领域。Vintvast当然在电动汽车领域，但他们也开始涉足一些内燃机汽车。所以他们不是一家纯电动公司。我以为他们是。他们是如何转型的？他们正在转型吗？他们的计划是什么？他们已经转型了。他们非常突然地改变了方向。他们确实从零开始。当你对汽车行业一无所知时，如何开办一家汽车公司？首席董事请来了几位汽车行业的资深高管，其中很多来自通用汽车公司，并且说，首先，我需要一辆汽车，我需要一个工厂，我需要一个供应链。在2016年、2017年、2018年，他们很快实现了这一切。最初的策略是借鉴宝马和欧宝的一些平台。

And just as you say, they built those cars in Vietnam, powered by conventional gasoline engines. And then there was a moment where the chairman woke up one day and said, what am I doing? The future is electric. We have to go all electric. That's it. And his lieutenants and his board members said, really? Because our gasoline is selling quite well. And the customers like us and electric, so a whole different technology. We need batteries and supply chains and all the rest. And he said, yes, I understand exactly. We're going. So beginning in 2021 is recently is 2021. They said, stop all gasoline production. That's over. And we're moving exclusively to battery electric vehicles. So another super bold move. I know that the chairman has put a lot of his own wealth into this company. And the estimates are something like $10 billion that's been invested so far.

正如你所说，他们在越南建造了那些使用传统汽油发动机的汽车。然后有一天，主席突然醒悟，说我在做什么？未来就是电动汽车。我们必须全面过渡到电动汽车。他的副手和董事会成员说，真的吗？因为我们的汽油销量很好。顾客也喜欢我们的汽车，电动汽车是完全不同的技术。我们需要电池、供应链等等。他说，是的，我明白了。我们要去了。所以自从2021年开始，最近就是2021年，他们宣布停止所有汽油生产。这一切都结束了。我们将专门生产电池电动汽车。这是又一个超级大胆的举措。我知道主席把很多自己的财富投入到这家公司。据估计到目前为止已经投入约100亿美元。

Of course, the company also enjoys the backing of the national government in Hanoi. They want to see a Vietnamese champion go global and be a winner. So you can imagine he does secure loans and land and other help from the government to make this a winner. But the point to your point, they start out gasoline and quickly, oh, no, gasoline is a pass. We're going all electric today. They have model lineup that includes all of their cars start with a VF. So it's a VF three, VF five, six, seven, eight and nine plus a prototype pickup truck. So there's no shortage of ambition. I mean, think about it to start up planning to produce six different vehicles at the same time.

当然，这家公司也得到了河内国家政府的支持。他们希望看到一家越南冠军企业走向全球并取得成功。因此，你可以想象他确实从政府那里得到了贷款、土地和其他帮助，以使这家公司取得成功。但是回到你的观点，他们开始使用汽油，但很快就转变主意，决定全面转向电动汽车。他们的车型系列都以VF开头，包括VF三、VF五、VF六、VF七、VF八和VF九，另外还有一款原型皮卡。可以说他们野心勃勃，想想看，一家初创企业计划同时生产六种不同类型的车型。

Exform to Europe, the United States, they just announced a new factory in India, a possible new plant in Indonesia. They're going for it. They're all in. If we're in Vegas, they're not going as they're going all the chips in the center of the table. Nice. I love it. I mean, obviously just that decision alone. I'm going to drop ice cars on level rate. That shows you I can make a quick decision. I can make the change and we did it. That is what's lacking. Okay.

他们将业务扩展到欧洲和美国，他们刚刚宣布在印度建立一个新工厂，并有可能在印度尼西亚建立新厂。他们全力以赴，决心投入其中。如果我们在拉斯维加斯，他们会把所有筹码都压在赌桌中央。太棒了，我喜欢。我的意思是，明显仅凭那个决定。我将降低冰车的价格。这表明我能够迅速做出决定、做出改变，我们成功了。这就是所缺少的。

So that's a company we need to keep our eye on. Like you said, they're small, but they're exciting and they'll be, I didn't even follow them. I'll keep following them now. So let's talk about drivetrains. Right. So this we talked about, you know, people, companies who are smart enough to switch and go all electric BMW. It's one company that I really think is going to succeed as I follow because what you think, because they're also just really now making decisions. But what we're seeing with the other legacy automakers, you know, some of the European, but primarily the US, they backed off their EVs. You got Toyota, right, who's fully saying committing that we are hybrids. We're going to double down on hybrids for longer. It's going to take the consumer a little bit longer to switch to EVs.

这是一家我们需要密切关注的公司。就像你说的那样，他们规模小，但非常令人兴奋，我甚至之前都没有关注过他们。现在我会继续关注他们。接下来让我们谈谈动力传动系统。我们谈过了，有些公司足够聪明地转型并全面采用电动汽车，比如宝马。这是一家我认为会成功的公司，因为他们正在做出明智的决定。而另一方面，其他传统汽车制造商，尤其是美国公司，却在放慢电动汽车发展的步伐。像丰田就全面表示我们将继续致力于混合动力。消费者可能需要更长的时间才会转向电动汽车。

Now you know that the auto legacy auto, I'm going to stick with the ice for as long as I can. They're likely going to promote hybrids. They're going to say EVs are deranged. It's not there. The, you know, the superchargers are not there. And then you've got this new thing called extended range. I bet you very few people here in the US even know what that is. Why don't you tell us about these different approaches and what you think might happen. Great. So let's start with extended range. I had the opportunity to drive one just this week for the first time. And I was impressed. You're basically an extended range vehicle is you have your battery electric power train. And then you have a small generator on the side. And as I was driving and the battery came down to a certain level, say 30%, the generator kicks in. And as I'm driving, recharge is a battery. So you can see the charge level moving back up.

现在你知道汽车遗产汽车，我会尽可能长时间坚持使用内燃发动机。他们可能会推广混合动力汽车。他们会说电动汽车是疯狂的。那还不行。你知道的，超级充电桩并不存在。然后你有这个新东西叫做延迟型。我敢打赌很少有美国人甚至知道这是什么。为什么不给我们介绍一下这些不同的方法，以及你认为可能会发生的事情。好的，让我们从延迟型开始。我最近有机会第一次开了一辆延迟型车。我留下了深刻的印象。基本上，延迟型车辆是指你有电池电动发动机，然后侧面还有一台小发电机。当我在开车时，电池耗尽到一定程度，比如说30%，发电机就会启动。当我开车时，发电机会给电池充电。所以你可以看到电池的充电水平回升。

So what does it do? It says if the battery range to begin with is 300 miles and you have this generator that can pop up, you end up with having 450 or 500 miles of range. Wow. What a nice solution. Now it's not the most elegant. It does have two things going on under the hood. You don't have a frunk. But you have the all important range and the elimination of range anxiety and the worries about where's the charging station in? Is it working and how fast is it charging? It sort of does away with those. So there's a company out of China called Liyoto that has had phenomenal success with extended range. I fully expect the automakers here. I think Stellantis is going to put it into its RAM. Others will follow suit because it's a practical solution for so many consumers here in the United States. We like our long distance travel in big heavy vehicles going at high speeds up and down hills, cold weather, hot weather. Extended range solves a lot of those problems. Yeah, but now that I think about it, though, it still is a battery electric vehicle at heart. So would Ford and GM move to that? Or they're not going to do that. They're going to stick with the hybrid. They're going to promote the hybrid to pretend that they're electric. But really, it's a nice vehicle through and through. Do you think that Ford and GM would get into extended range? Is that a stepping stone to EVs? Or it doesn't sound like it would be.

那它有什么功能呢？它说，如果电池的续航里程从一开始就是300英里，而你有一个可以弹出的发电机，最终你会拥有450或500英里的续航里程。哇，这是一个多好的解决方案。现在它并不是最优雅的。在引擎盖下有两个问题。你没有一个前置行李箱。但你有重要的续航里程，消除了续航焦虑以及对充电站位置、充电速度的担忧。这种技术消除了这些问题。中国有一家名为Liyoto的公司已经取得了极大的成功，拥有了更长的续航里程。我完全预计美国的汽车制造商也会效仿。我认为斯泰兰蒂斯将把这项技术应用到它的RAM车型上。其他车商也会效仿，因为对于美国许多消费者来说，这是一个实用的解决方案。我们喜欢驾驶大型重型车辆进行远距离旅行，涉足高速在上下坡，寒冷和酷热的天气中驾驶。更长的续航里程解决了许多这些问题。但现在我想想，它依然是一款电动汽车。那么福特和通用会采用这种技术吗？或他们会坚持混合动力。他们会推广混合动力来假装自己是电动汽车。但实际上，这款车整体上还是很不错的。你认为福特和通用会投入到更长的续航里程吗？这是迈向电动汽车的一个阶段吗？或者听起来并不像是这样。

Here's my concern. And I say this as a Detroiter native of Detroit, up around cars. That was the automotive journalist, the automotive editor at popular mechanics and also legendary cars by. So I know cars and I know car culture and I know Detroit. My concern is what I've seen in the last 15 years is that Detroit has pulled inward. It used to be global. Now it's North American. So to be blunt about it, Ford and GM have become large truck makers for the North American market, full stop. And the good news about that is they're really, really good at it and they have great loyal customers. The bad news is that they're painting themselves into a corner. We make big vehicles at fat margins and that's our business and we're not going to leave it. So, electric or anything else that will diminish our margins is an inconvenience. We don't like to consider that if we don't have to. So I see them going staying just to say with gas and hybrid as long as they can run that. In the meantime, yes, there's efforts to, you know, Ford recently said $25,000 EV. But if the culture says our core business is large trucks for North America powered by ice, how do you get out from underneath that culture and really sort of encourage and be a catalyst for innovation, imagination and risk taking. I don't see it happening. That's a problem. That's a problem for Detroit. Okay. You know, I'm just realizing that your background is so unique. You know, East, you know, West Europe, you know, all the different drivetrains, all the different cars. Can you just give me a one on one then and what's happening in the just let's start high level, then we're going to drill down into China will drill into electric vehicles. But what's going on in this world right now with automotive industry. I think big, big picture. I call China today and I'd say this respectfully. It's an automotive Godzilla, the likes of which the world has never seen before. What competition came out of Japan or Korea years ago will pale in comparison to what we're seeing coming out of China.

这是我的关注点。我是底特律人，是底特律本地出生长大的，对汽车很熟悉。我曾是《Popular Mechanics》的汽车记者和汽车编辑，也是《传奇汽车》的编辑。因此，我了解汽车和汽车文化，也了解底特律。我的关注点是，在过去的15年中，我看到底特律已经变得更封闭。它曾经是全球性的，现在只是北美市场。坦率地说，福特和通用已经成为了北美市场的大型卡车制造商，就这样。好消息是他们在这方面做得非常好，拥有众多忠实客户。坏消息是他们把自己逼入了困境。我们制造大型汽车，赚取高利润，这是我们的业务，我们不会离开这个轨道。所以，电动车或任何会降低我们利润的东西都是个麻烦。我们不愿意去考虑这些，如果可以避免的话。因此，我看他们会尽可能长时间地坚持使用汽油和混合动力。同时，是的，会有一些努力，例如福特最近推出了售价25000美元的电动车。但如果文化认为我们的核心业务是为北美市场制造大型卡车，动力源是传统内燃机，那么我们该如何摆脱这种文化，真正鼓励和促进创新、想象力和冒险精神呢？我并没有看到这种情况发生。这是一个问题，对底特律来说是一个问题。好的。我刚意识到你的背景非常独特。你了解东方和西方欧洲，了解各种不同的动力传动方式，了解各种不同的汽车。那你可以给我一个简单的介绍，关于汽车行业现在正在发生什么。我认为从宏观的角度来看，中国如今是一只汽车巨兽，世界上前所未有的。过去从日本或韩国竞争出现的竞争者，将无法与中国现在所展现出的竞争相比。

Let me just share a couple of numbers and they may be familiar to you guys already, but it's worth repeating one last year China built 30 million vehicles. More than one third of total global production of all vehicles. They built nine million EVs more than everyone else combined. Now, on top of that, 30 million in production, they have another 10 to 12 million of excess capacity. What does that mean? That means domestic economy is slowing, demand at home is slowing, profits have gone to nothing. My Chinese friends in China tell me no one wants to stay in China. There's no money here. We have to push out and pushing out is exactly what they've been doing last year.

让我分享一些数字，可能你们已经很熟悉了，但值得重申，去年中国生产了3000万辆汽车。占全球汽车总产量的三分之一以上。他们生产了900万辆电动汽车，比其他所有国家加起来都多。此外，除了这3000万的产量，他们还有1000万到1200万的过剩产能。这意味着什么？这意味着国内经济放缓，国内需求放缓，利润几乎为零。我在中国的中国朋友告诉我，没有人愿意留在中国。这里没有钱。我们必须推出去，而去年他们确实一直在推出去。

China race past Japan to become the number one exporter of vehicles globally. And they're just pouring into new markets and overwhelming the competition with their low cost and very impressive quality. While we're keeping ourselves up at night worried about software defined vehicles or charging stations or the next battery, I predict the next five years, the single greatest disruption to this industry globally will be this overwhelming tsunami of Chinese cars flooding into our markets. That's a big picture. And we've already seen Europe feel the brunt of that.

中国已经超越日本，成为全球最大的汽车出口国。他们正在迅速进入新市场，并以低成本和非常出色的质量压倒竞争对手。而我们却整夜担心软件定义车辆、充电站或下一代电池。我预测，在未来五年内，全球汽车行业最大的颠覆将是这股中国汽车的巨大洪流涌入我们的市场。这是一个宏伟的蓝图。我们已经看到欧洲已经感受到了这种影响。

The United States, of course, has a tariff, 27 and a half percent tariff on Chinese vehicles. That's kept them at bay for the time being. But how many people know, for example, that Chinese, China now is the number one supplier of vehicles to Mexico? Right? South of the United States, you say, how can that be possible? I don't see any Chinese cars on American roads. How can it be possible they're so popular, South of the Borteico visit? Go to Mexico City. You'll see for yourself. The Chinese are changing the dynamics of the global game now and for the next 20 years, marked by words.

当然，美国对中国汽车征收了27.5％的关税。这让他们暂时保持了距离。但有多少人知道，例如中国现在是墨西哥最大的汽车供应国？对吧？在美国南部，你可能会说，这怎么可能？我在美国的道路上看不到任何中国汽车。怎么可能他们在波尔特克访问时如此受欢迎？去墨西哥城看看。你就会亲眼见到。中国正在改变全球游戏的动态，现在和未来20年，记住我的话。

So the issue for us here in America is that we don't see Chinese cars here. And as a result, we tend to heavily discount their competitiveness. We shouldn't make that mistake. We need to wake up right now. That competition is real. It's coming and we are not prepared for it. Wow. Okay.

在美国，我们面临的问题是我们很少看到中国的汽车在这里销售。因此，我们往往严重低估了它们的竞争力。我们不应该犯这个错误。我们现在就需要警醒。这场竞争是真实的。它即将到来，而我们却毫无准备。哇，好吧。

Because I've been interviewing a number of other auto experts and a few of them take the position that China will not be able to go global. And in order to be a player in the auto industry, you have to go global. They're big in China. They're trying to go into Europe, but there's going to be tariffs. They're not going to be, you know, the reason why they're successful is because they have low-cost labor. But when you try to create a car in the US or Europe, you're not going to have the low-cost labor. They're not as advanced in automotive. But then on the other side, you've got Elon saying, you know, there's going to be Tesla and nine. The next 10 is giving the nine auto Chinese companies next to it. And he agrees he goes, that might be the case.

因为我一直在采访许多其他汽车专家，其中有一些认为中国无法走向全球。要成为汽车行业的一员，就必须走向全球。他们在中国很强大。他们正在试图进入欧洲，但会面临关税问题。他们成功的原因是他们拥有低成本劳动力。但是当你试图在美国或欧洲制造汽车时，你就不会得到低成本劳动力。他们在汽车领域并不那么先进。但是另一方面，你又有埃隆（马斯克）说，特斯拉会是下一个，接下来的10家公司是中国的。他同意并说，可能是这样。

Absolutely. 100% what Elon's sharing. And he's not sharing the whole picture. He knows just how competitive the Chinese are. And I can say from my personal experience, living in Asia from 1990 through just a few years ago, the transformation in quality and design of Chinese cars is mind-blowing. Mind-blowing. I recently had the opportunity to test drive some of the latest Chinese cars as with dealers from the United States who now sell some of the best products on the market here.

绝对正确。埃隆所分享的就是这样。而且他并没有分享整个情况。他知道中国人有多具竞争力。从我个人的经验来看，从1990年至几年前在亚洲生活，中国汽车的质量和设计的转变令人惊叹。令人惊叹。最近我有机会试驾一些最新的中国汽车，跟随一些现在在这里销售市场上最好产品的美国经销商。

And they couldn't believe their eyes. They said, this is way beyond our expectations. So it's natural for us to think Chinese cheap car, low-cost labor, but that was the past. Today, they're coming up very fast and watch it. Watch it. Okay. I want to get to electric vehicles. Who's going to end up winning that game? But I'm curious what you think. How's Tesla doing in China? We know that Tesla Model Y is still the number one selling vehicle in China despite selling in the 50 to 60,000 dollar range. But Tesla is going to come out with their compact car.

他们简直不敢相信自己的眼睛。他们说，这远远超出了我们的预期。所以我们自然会想到中国廉价汽车、低成本劳动力，但那是过去的事情了。今天，他们正在迅速崛起，你们要看好。要看好。好的。我想谈一下电动汽车。谁最终会赢得这场比赛呢？但我很好奇你的看法。特斯拉在中国的表现如何？我们知道特斯拉Model Y仍然是中国最畅销的车型，尽管售价在5-6万美元之间。但特斯拉将推出他们的紧凑车型。

They're going to come out with a very affordable car. It's going to be really, really good. I was telling people that you're worried about BYD getting into Tesla's range. But actually, why aren't you talking about Tesla getting into BYD's range when they've got a compelling low-cost car? What do you predict was what will happen in China for Tesla? Tesla enjoys enormous popularity as does Elon in China. That hasn't changed. Enormous respect, recognition, acknowledgement. They are number one in the EV industry globally. No question about it. The Chinese are still trying to close that gap.

他们计划推出一款价格非常实惠的车。这将是非常非常好的。我告诉人们，你担心比亚迪进入特斯拉的市场范围。但实际上，为什么不谈谈特斯拉进入比亚迪的市场范围，因为他们有一款令人信服的低成本车？你认为特斯拉在中国会发生什么？特斯拉和埃隆在中国享有极高的人气。这一点从未改变。巨大的尊重、认可和关注。他们在全球电动汽车行业排名第一，毫无疑问。中国人仍在努力缩小这一差距。

So from a market perspective, Tesla is still in very good shape in China. As you know, half of Tesla's production globally last year was centered in China. They have that low-cost manufacturing. They have a customer base there that loves the brand. The only threat in my mind is, guess what? Are we in World War III already and don't know it? There's enormous invisible political tensions in play. Most recently, you know, representatives from Congress were saying, put Starlink in Taiwan. Oh my goodness, if he does that, what would the Chinese say? That's real. That's real stressor. And China being China, they can turn the taps off pretty quickly if they want to. Look no further than, for example, the book you mentioned earlier about General Motors in China that I wrote several years ago. GM was once the poster child for the success of the US-China relationship. GM sold more cars in China than in the United States, made massive profits there. Today, no. Sales are down by more than half. Profits have gone drop like a stone. GM's looking like, ooh, we might be hitting the exit soon. Mary Barra last week said, we're going to have to move up to Cadillac's because everything else we're not competitive in. Basically, that's what she said. So the tide can turn very abruptly in China. Elon knows that. I think he's riding his wave as long as possible. And at the same time, building up manufacturing in Berlin, Texas, Mexico, sort of to diversify his portfolio in the event things go sideways in China. But today, they love and they love their Teslas in China.

因此，从市场的角度来看，特斯拉在中国仍然处于非常良好的状态。你知道的，去年全球一半的特斯拉产量都集中在中国。他们拥有低成本的制造业，拥有一大批热爱这个品牌的客户群。在我看来唯一的威胁是，你猜是什么？我们已经处于第三次世界大战之中而自己却毫不知情吗？巨大的政治紧张局势悄然存在。最近，你知道，国会代表们表示，把星链项目放在台湾。如果他真的这么做了，中国会有什么反应？这是真实的，是真正的压力源。中国一旦做出决定，他们可以很快地关闭水龙头。不用往太远，比如你之前提到的我几年前写的关于通用汽车在中国的一本书。通用汽车曾经是美中关系成功的典范。在中国销售量超过美国，赚取了巨额利润。但如今状况有所改变。销量下降了一半还多，利润也锐减。通用汽车看起来可能很快要撤离了。玛丽•芭拉上周表示，我们要提高卡迪拉克的地位，因为在其他方面我们不具备竞争力。基本上就是这么说的。因此，在中国，局势可能会非常突然地发生变化。埃隆知道这一点。我认为他会尽可能地乘风破浪。同时，他正在进行柏林、德克萨斯和墨西哥的制造业建设，以便在中国局势反复的情况下多样化他的投资组合。但是今天，在中国，人们依然热爱自己的特斯拉。

Some people are pointing out that when he was asked the question of what's happening with him on the compact car, he answered by, first, it's going to be Giga, Texas. This is where the line is. Then Giga, Mexico. Then another. He didn't say China. His most logical would have been saying Giga Shanghai. Most logical. He didn't name it. People are picking on the words and they're not. Maybe he just doesn't know if that's where he should be. That's a great read or he may not know. He may say that's my first choice, but things are dicey right now. And I don't want to go on record saying it'll be in Shanghai because. How successful would the Tesla compact car be in China? Phenomenal. You have to be price competitive. You see the Chinese driving down the prices, BYD starting at $11,200 now. That would play very well. I don't think we're talking speculating. I would like to see this maybe counterintuitive, but I'd like to see Tesla go higher with a bigger model than China. China surprisingly is the largest luxury car market in the world. It's twice the size of the US market. Twice the size. Few people know that they don't have any problems spending 80, 90, $100,000 on the Mercedes and BMWs and Audi's. I would love to see a new version of the S or the X and I think they do extremely well in China. If he goes down to the $25,000 car in China, it's crowded and brutal. That's their comfort zone. You want to compete on price? Yeah, thank you. Let's do that. I'd like to see Elon go up if possible rather than down in China. Very interesting point.

一些人指出，当被问及他在紧凑型汽车方面的情况时，他首先回答说，它将在吉加，得克萨斯州。这是制造线所在地。然后是吉加，墨西哥。然后是另一个地方。他没有提到中国。最合乎逻辑的应该是吉加上海。最合乎逻辑的。他没有称呼它。人们在猜测他的话，但他可能只是不知道是否应该这样做。那是一个很好的推测，或者他可能不知道。他可能会说那是他的第一选择，但现在情况很不稳定。我不想说它将会在上海，因为不知道会多成功。特斯拉紧凑型汽车在中国会有多成功？绝佳。你必须具有价格竞争力。你看到中国人把价格压低，比亚迪现在以11200美元起步。这将非常受欢迎。我认为我们并不是在纯粹猜测。也许有点违反直觉，但我希望看到特斯拉在中国通过更大的型号继续增长。令人惊讶的是，中国是世界上最大的豪华车市场。它是美国市场的两倍。很少有人知道他们在梅赛德斯奔驰和奥迪上花费80、90、100000美元并没有问题。我希望看到S或X的新版本，我认为它们在中国会非常成功。如果他在中国推出25000美元的车型，市场竞争将非常激烈。这是他们的舒适区。你想要以价格竞争吗？是的，谢谢。让我们这样做。我希望看到埃隆在中国尽可能地进行提升，而不是下降。非常有趣的观点。

I don't know if these stats are true or not, but I seem to remember China's population is five times the US. And people forget that. There's as many millionaires in China than there are the population of the US. Like what? You just don't realize it. It's incomprehensible. The other one I love to play with a little bit. If you imagine China and the United States are about the same size in terms of landmass. And as you said, China has five times the population. On top of that, most of Chinese people lived the equivalent of east to the Mississippi. So you've got massive concentration of people on the east coast in China. And then the west is largely desert mountains in a habitable areas. So you go to China, when I'm in Shanghai, I arrive at the airport. I see thousands of people there waiting for their flights. Then you fly to Beijing. Whoa, thousands of people there. It's unlike anything we could imagine here in the United States. People everywhere. Yeah.

我不知道这些统计数据是真是假，但我记得中国的人口是美国的五倍。人们往往忘记了这一点。中国的百万富翁数量和美国的人口数量一样多。像是什么？你简直无法想象。还有一个有趣的比较，如果你想象一下，中国和美国在陆地面积上差不多大小。正如你所说，中国的人口是美国的五倍。此外，大部分中国人生活在相当于从东部到密西西比河的地区。所以在中国东海岸有大量的人口聚集，而西部主要是荒漠、山脉和不适宜居住的地区。所以当我在上海的时候，到了机场看到成千上万的人等待他们的航班。然后飞往北京，哇，那里也有数以千计的人。这与我们在美国无法想象的。到处都是人。是的。

Let's go back to electric vehicles in general. So what do you see the future? So we talked about Tesla and 9 other Chinese. But is there going to be a consolidation? Will all the brands go away? And Chinese will continue to buy up the brands like they have with Gili buying Volvo? Yeah. So future electric tests. I see Tesla, I see BYD. And something that is also not that well known is there's a lot of other Chinese players, but they're not on the same level. So many of those several have already gone bankrupt. Many others will too. It's a tough game. You need to have a incredible personality and a genius like Elon to sustain an EV company for as long as he did. Remember, as recently heard, it's like 2018-19. It was on the ropes. Are we going to make it manufacturing intense? So that's same kind of gravitational reality that pressures on every EV startup. So if we talk about five years or not, I could see Tesla, BYD, probably a major Chinese state enterprise because they never go away. They're state-backed. Maybe a Shanghai auto with the MG brand and maybe a Gili. Even Gili has a tough time making money in Volvo.

让我们再回到电动汽车。那么你对未来有什么看法？我们讨论了特斯拉和另外9家中国公司。但是是否会出现整合？所有品牌都会消失吗？中国人会继续收购品牌，就像吉利收购沃尔沃一样吗？是的。未来的电动车测试。我看到特斯拉，我看到比亚迪。还有一些不太知名的中国参与者，但他们不在同一水平上。许多这些参与者已经破产。许多其他公司也将破产。这是一个艰难的游戏。你需要有一个令人难以置信的人格和一个类似埃隆的天才，才能维持一个电动车公司像他那样长久。记住，就像我们最近听说的那样，就在2018-19年。它处在绝境中。我们要在制造过程中取得成功吗？这是每家电动汽车初创公司面临的真实的重力现实。所以如果我们谈论未来五年，我可以看到特斯拉，比亚迪，可能还有一家重要的中国国有企业，因为他们永远不会消失，他们得到政府支持。也许还会有一家上海汽车公司，旗下有MG品牌，以及可能会有吉利。即使吉利在沃尔沃也很难盈利。

And you saw recently, Polestar, Volvo divested from Polestar saying, hey, that's our younger brother. We can't carry our younger brother anymore. Through it back up to Gili, will you take care of? And then they just announced this week. Gili is going to give a billion dollar in my life line to Polestar. Terrific car. Love Thomas Ingenlot. Love the design. But hey, you still have to make money. And it's brutal out there. So that's a roundabout way of answering your question by C. Tesla. And maybe a player to be named later really dominating the EV market. What about the legacies? Who's doing well? Who's not? When I interviewed like Sandy Monroe, and they think that Hyundai key is doing very well, I'd mentioned earlier that I think BMW will survive just because they've also made a full commitment to go EV altogether.

最近您也看到了，Polestar，沃尔沃从Polestar撤资，说：“嘿，那是我们的弟弟。我们不能再扶着我们的弟弟了。把它甩给Gili，你来照顾吧？”然后他们就在本周宣布了。Gili将向Polestar投入10亿美元的生命线。极好的汽车。热爱Thomas Ingenlot。喜欢设计。但是嘿，你还得赚钱。现在的市场竞争激烈。这是一个迂回回答您的问题关于特斯拉。也许会有一家未来的公司主导电动汽车市场。那些传统汽车公司如何了？谁做得好？谁做得不好？当我采访像Sandy Monroe这样的人时，他们认为现代起亚表现得很不错，我之前也提到过，我认为宝马会继续存活下去，因为他们也全面承诺转型为电动汽车。

What's your thinking? Who's the legacy that will make it through? Gosh, I think the Germans luxury will find a way primarily by leveraging their exclusivity. They have very loyal customers and they'll be forgiving I think in the way that maybe some Tesla customers are forgiving to. I love my Mercedes or my BMW or my Audi. They'll be around even if they aren't at the top of their game with EVs for another few years. So I'd say they'll be around. That's one camp. Hyundai key, you mentioned, very impressive to think that a country with a size smaller than the state of Michigan where I'm from is doing so extraordinarily well in so many markets around the world and doing very well in the electrics too. So they're a winner in my book. Tesla of course is at the top, but you're asking about legacy. After that, I get genuinely concerned like we're talking in recent weeks that the Europeans and the Americas are saying, let's get together and share costs because we don't know if we'll be able to make it alone.

你有什么想法？谁是那个能够继承下去的传统？天哪，我认为德国的奢侈品牌将主要通过利用他们的独特性找到一条出路。他们拥有非常忠诚的客户，我认为他们会像一些特斯拉的客户那样宽容。我喜欢我的奔驰、宝马或者奥迪。即使在未来几年内他们的电动汽车并不处于领先地位，他们也会继续存在。所以我认为他们会一直存在。这是其中一种派别。你提到的现代，让人印象深刻，一个国家的规模比我来自的密歇根州还小，却在世界各地的许多市场上表现出色，在电动汽车领域也表现出色。所以他们是我心目中的赢家。特斯拉当然是领先的，但你问的是传统。在那之后，我真的很担心，最近几周，欧美国家开始说，让我们团结起来分担成本，因为我们不确定自己能否独自走下去。

I think all bets are off after that. I don't know. It's really an uncertain time and they could easily go by the way. Okay. So you've lived in China since 1990 till now, just recently. So BYD, tell me their story. They're a battery maker. What is their competitive advantage? How do you see? How do they make money? Right now there's $1,500 profit, but they just talked about being in all segments. They talked about that we're a technology company, not a, you know, we're moving away from this image that we're, you know, a low cost provider. Yes. Tell me more about BYD. Just as you say, this past couple of months, they introduced this brand new flagship brand called Yang Wang with an SUV that starts at $160,000 in a sports car hypercar, hyper sports car starting at like $230,000. So they're going for it. Top shelf. Now, that's so interesting because BYD's origins are as manufacturers of batteries for cell phones for the first 10 years. Then they moved into cars in the mid 2000s.

我觉得在那之后一切都未定。我不知道。现在是一个不确定的时代，他们很容易就可能改变方向。你自1990年至今一直生活在中国，对比亚迪了解多少？他们是一个电池制造商。他们有什么竞争优势？你怎么看？他们怎么赚钱？现在有1500美元的利润，但他们刚刚谈到在所有领域都有所涉足。他们谈到我们是一家科技公司，而不是低成本提供商。告诉我更多关于比亚迪的事情。就像你说的，过去几个月，他们推出了一款全新的旗舰品牌“杨王”，推出的SUV起价160,000美元，而超级跑车的起价是230,000美元。他们正在往顶级产品上走。这很有趣，因为比亚迪最初是手机电池制造商。在头10年，然后他们在2000年代中期转向汽车制造。

And when they move into cars, they didn't have batteries ready to power those cars. So they actually licensed gasoline engines from Mitsubishi and had cars running around BYD label, but they were gas powered. Then their big break came in 2008 when, of course, Warren Buffett invested in them, not because of the cars. This isn't that well known, but because of their energy storage systems business. He said, and then he himself, Warren Buffett didn't make the final decision. He said, I don't understand energy storage systems or their car business, but I'm betting on this guy, long, and he was right. Long, long, full eventually. BYD in the 2010s began to make pretty decent EVs, but not widely popular in China, mostly for taxis or state enterprises.

当他们开始生产汽车时，他们并没有准备好用于提供动力的电池。因此，他们实际上从三菱公司获得汽油发动机的许可，并以比亚迪的标签让汽车行驶，但实际上是使用燃油发动机。然后他们在2008年迎来了转机，当然，是沃伦·巴菲特投资于他们，不是因为汽车。这并不是很出名，而是因为他们的储能系统业务。他说，然后他本人沃伦·巴菲特并不是最终决定的人。他说，我不懂储能系统或他们的汽车业务，但我在押注这个家伙，长期来看，他是对的。很长时间后，比亚迪在2010年代开始生产相当不错的电动汽车，但在中国并不普遍受欢迎，主要用于出租车或国有企业。

The turning point in my mind was around 2016 when they hired a guy named Wolfgang Egger, a designer from Audi who really began to design for them some beautiful vehicles, ones that you wouldn't look at and say, oh, that's a Chinese car. He'd say, oh, I'm not sure. Is that Korean? Is that European? So they've vastly improved the design. At the same time, they're now leveraging the fact that they're a battery company for so long, really gives them a massive advantage. They're totally vertically integrated. They make their own batteries. They process a lot of the minerals that go into the cells. In some cases, they own parts of the mines. So total vertical integration helps them drive down their costs, and now they're extending themselves into the manufacturer first of low-cost vehicles. And then more recently, we're talking the last year into this Yang long flagship brand. So it's impressive to see what I'm reminded of. Herbert has imagined Intel inside at its peak saying, we're going to now make a smartphone like the iPhone. That's kind of comparable to this BYD story. Manufacture of batteries, manufacturing of batteries for cars, and then eventually wrapping a car around that manufacturing of batteries in that whole supply chain. That's what makes this company really powerful. They've got the cost, and now they've got the car designed to make them really good-looking.

在我看来的转折点大约在2016年，那时他们聘请了一位名叫沃尔夫冈·埃格尔的设计师，他是奥迪公司的设计师，他真的开始为他们设计一些美丽的车辆，你不会看了说：“哦，这是一辆中国车。” 他会说：“哦，我不确定。这是韩国的吗？是欧洲的吗？”所以他们在设计方面有了很大的改进。同时，他们现在正在利用他们长期以来作为电池公司的优势，这确实给他们带来了巨大优势。他们是完全垂直整合的。他们自己制造电池。他们加工了许多用于电池的矿物质。在某些情况下，他们拥有矿山的一部分。因此，完全的垂直整合帮助他们降低成本，现在他们正在扩展到首先制造低成本车辆。然后更近期地，我们谈论到去年进入的远龙旗舰品牌。因此，看到这个我想起了赫伯特设想英特尔在顶峰时说，我们现在要像iPhone一样制造智能手机。这有点类似于比亚迪的故事。制造电池，为汽车制造电池，然后最终在整个供应链中以这种电池制造汽车。这就是使这家公司真正强大的原因。他们有成本优势，现在他们已经有了设计优势，使他们看起来非常吸引人。

Is there some truth to some people saying that a BYD is very efficient because they haven't fully embraced autonomy, robotics, the industrial robots, that there are 650,000 employees? Is that true? That they're not yet an autonomous factory? That used to be true, but no longer. They've got robotics. It's clean. It's quiet. It's modern. It's impressive. And at the same time, it's also true that they have 600,000 employees, including 90,000 engineers, and they're registering patents every single day. They're a formidable company, and I think the big, what would it be, head fake or misconception or risk of a misread for us in America? We look left and right, we step out on the street, we drive our cars, and we go, this must be hype. This must be any good. Right? I mean, Toyota can't, everybody comes to the market in the world. That's the United States. Where are they? Well, what we have to keep in mind is there's this other place called China that has a market 25 million units last year, I think, against our fifth, so 10 million units bigger than we are. Produced 30 million, that's 20 million that we produced.

有人说比亚迪非常高效，因为他们还没有完全采用自动化、机器人技术和工业机器人，这种说法有一些道理吗？他们有65万名员工？这是真实的吗？他们还没有实现自动化工厂吗？曾经是这样，但现在已不再是。他们已经使用了机器人。这是一个干净、安静、现代和令人印象深刻的工厂。同时，他们确实拥有60万名员工，包括9万名工程师，他们每天都在注册专利。他们是一家强大的公司，我认为对我们美国人来说最大的一个误解或错误理解是什么呢？我们左右看看，走出街道，开着车，然后就觉得这一定是炒作。一定不值得。对吗？我是说，丰田也不能吸引所有市场。全世界都来到市场，包括美国。他们在哪里？我们必须记住的是还有这么一个地方叫中国，去年市场销量是2500万辆，比我们的第五大市场多1000万辆。他们生产了3000万辆，比我们生产的2000万辆多了1000万辆。

There's a new king in the hill. If an alien came down to earth today and said, make me to your automotive leader, where would they go? They would go to Asia, for sure. That's crazy. It's hard for us to register that. Well, it was nonexistent just like a decade ago. That's right. When I first tell a quick story, when the first one to Asia, 1990, got right out of school, got on an airplane, flew to China, had an idea. I'm going to set up a company to advise automakers coming into the China market to sell cars. Well, I got there. First hand knows there's no cars on the road. They're all bicycles. And I signed up at the foreign correspondent's club of Beijing and an older British show and said, what do you hear for? And I said, I want to set up this company. He said, you've got to be kidding me. Hello, there's no income here. Every car, if there is a car, it belongs to the state. There's no private ownership. So those early days were hard knocks, but eventually, they exploded. We know the rest of the story.

在那座山上有一个新的国王。如果一个外星人今天降临地球并说：“让我成为你们的汽车领袖”，他们会去哪里呢？肯定会去亚洲。这太疯狂了，我们很难接受这个事实。但事实上，这种情况在十年前还不存在。我记得一个小故事，1990年，我第一次来到亚洲，刚从学校毕业，登上飞机飞往中国，心中有一个想法：我要开设一家公司，为进入中国市场销售汽车的汽车制造商提供咨询服务。但当我到达那里时，第一件事就是发现路上没有车，都是自行车。我去了北京的外国记者俱乐部，有位年长的英国人问我来这里干什么，我说我要开设这家公司。他说你一定是开玩笑。你好，这里没有营收。如果有车的话，也是属于国家的，没有私人所有权。那些早期的日子很艰难，但最终，一切都变得火爆起来。我们知道后面的故事。

Paragraph 1: Do you know much about autonomy and the car self-driving? We see a lot of demos from these Chinese car companies that they're able to do this as well. And specifically BYD. What's their approach in all this? When I think of autonomy in China, I tend to think of Baidu first, and maybe Pony. The automaker is sort of secondary. Automakers are relying more on chips from software from Nvidia or Qualcomm. So you got sort of two camps. But when it comes to autonomy, Baidu has a joint venture with Glee. It has its own vehicle called the Baidu Apollo. So that's the company I watch most closely as Baidu. And then Pony would be second.

你知道自动驾驶和汽车自主性有多少了解吗？我们看到许多中国汽车公司展示他们也能做到这一点。尤其是比亚迪。他们在所有这些方面的方法是什么？当我想到中国的自主性时，我往往首先想到百度，或许还有小马。汽车制造商在某种程度上是次要的。汽车制造商更多地依赖于英伟达或高通的芯片和软件。所以你有两个阵营。但是在自动驾驶方面，百度与Glee有合资企业。它拥有自己的车型，名为百度Apollo。所以我最密切关注的公司是百度。然后是小马。

Paragraph 2: There's also a company interesting company called Momenta that's invested in by Toyota and GM. So what's the difference? In China, the local officials have a strong incentive to see companies succeed. Because of any more employment, more tax revenues, more money. In the United States, the local officials, especially recently with Cruz and Weibo have a strong incentive to avoid any problems. So our technology in the United States is as good, probably better. But China's path to market and commercialization is quicker. So advantage China, I think five years from now, they'll be able to develop more quickly just because the environment is going to be more effective. The environment is more conducive to that in China than it is in the US.

另外还有一家有趣的公司叫Momenta，得到了丰田和通用汽车的投资。那么有什么不同呢？在中国，地方官员有强烈的动力希望看到企业成功。因为更多就业岗位，更多税收，更多资金。在美国，地方官员，特别是最近的Cruz和韦博，有强烈的动力避免任何问题。所以我们在美国的技术一样好，可能更优秀。但是中国通往市场和商业化的道路更快。因此，我认为中国有优势，五年后他们能够更快地发展，只是因为环境将会更加有效。在中国，这种环境更有利于发展，胜过美国。

Paragraph 3: Okay, interesting. Yeah. I don't know. I've been following closely autonomy. Of course, I still believe Tesla's got the drives, the miles, the technology. And then when you saw what happened to Cruz, you start wondering whether or not, and you find out what happened to Cruz, right? It was all faked out. It was all faked out. There was actually tele operators, humans watching the videos and taking over when they needed to do that. And I wonder if some of the Chinese demos are the same or not, but you're right. Don't come on. China can be a black box. We don't know. Living in China, as long as I did, there's a saying among China veterans, like two things. One, every day in China, you see something you don't see every day. And two, and two, if anyone says they know for sure, don't believe them. Nobody knows even the Chinese don't know what's going on. It's such a black box.

好的，有意思。我不知道。我一直都在密切关注自动驾驶技术。当然，我仍然相信特斯拉在驾驶、里程和技术方面表现出色。当你看到克鲁斯发生了什么，就开始质疑是否是真的，你发现了克鲁斯发生了什么，对吧？其实，那都是假的。全都是假的。真实情况是，有远程操作员，有人在观看视频并在需要时接管。我想知道一些中国的演示是否也是这样，但你说得对，别开玩笑了。中国可能是一个黑匣子。我们不知道。我在中国生活过很长时间，中国老手有句谚语，其中有两条。一是，在中国，每天都会看到你从未见过的事情。二是，如果有人说他们确定知道，不要相信他们。连中国人自己都不知道发生了什么。这就是黑匣子的特点。

Paragraph 4: Cruz, you mentioned, you may know that I also host my podcast called Driving with Don. And just just past week, we were talking about Cruz. There's some serious hurdles to clear one technology to do. How do you win the trust back for Cruz or way more now that you've had it? How do you win the trust? That's a big one from government officials and public. And third, and this is one that's less talked about, is the money. How do you make money? And so in recent months, we've seen Chinese leaders in AV technology start looking around saying, we don't actually have a really strong business model, or we can't see that path. So maybe we can start to sell some of our capabilities or license it to others. And that to me was a sign like, oh, there's a little bit of a panic in the industry. How do we turn this into money? Whereas, as you said, Tesla, Elon's been very consistent. We're going to get there. We're going to get there. And we're getting there and it's going to happen. And usually when he's that insistent, it turns out that way.

克鲁兹，你提到了，你可能知道我也主持一个名为“与唐同行”的播客。就在上周，我们在谈论克鲁兹时提到了一些严峻的障碍。如何重建克鲁兹的信任，或者说，既然你已拥有了它，如何赢回信任？如何赢得来自政府官员和公众的信任？第三点，这是一个少有人谈及的话题，就是金钱。如何赚钱？在最近的几个月里，我们看到中国的AV技术领军者开始四处寻找，开始意识到我们实际上并没有一个非常强大的商业模式，或者我们无法看到那条路径。因此，也许我们可以开始向其他公司出售我们的技术能力或者将其授权给他人。对我来说，这是一个迹象，行业中似乎有一些恐慌情绪。我们怎样将这转化为金钱？而正如你所说，特斯拉的埃隆一直非常一致。我们会到达那里，我们会达到那里，我们正在朝着目标前进，迟早会实现。通常当他如此坚决时，事情就会发展成那样。

Paragraph 1: Yeah. I want to ask you, because of your knowledge of China, the coming humanoid bot industry. So, you know, China is the manufacturing hub of the world for decades. And they do that because of their low-cost labor. They must be freaking out because if humanoid bots is a thing, they are the first to all of a sudden, you know, nobody needs to create their factories in China. I know that the Chinese government, I did a big show on this about three months ago, bit a huge announcement saying that we are committed to become the leader in humanoid by 2027. And as we said earlier, if China government says something, they put the money, they will invest in it. They'll make it happen. And I would believe them because we're talking about, you know, manufacturing hub, no longer becoming manufacturing hub. They need to be the humanoid leader. Do you have any understanding of like, what do you think the government would do when they see a threat like this?

是的，我想问问你，因为你对中国有了解，关于即将到来的人形机器人产业。你知道，中国几十年来一直是全球制造业中心。他们之所以能做到这一点，是因为他们拥有低成本的劳动力。如果人形机器人开始普及，他们肯定会感到恐慌，因为突然之间，没有人再需要在中国建厂了。我知道中国政府大约三个月前做了一个重大声明，表示他们承诺在2027年成为人形机器人领域的领导者。如同我们之前所说的，如果中国政府表示要做什么，他们会投入资金，会投资。他们会让这件事情变成现实。我相信他们，因为我们正在谈论的是制造业中心不再是制造业中心了。他们需要成为人形机器人领导者。你对政府在面对这种威胁时会采取什么行动有什么了解吗？

Paragraph 2: What we have seen in the last five years in the industry is that a little bit counterintuitive. We've seen massive investments in robotics in the automotive plants, for sure. So you go into China and that's happening. And by extension, I believe, don't quote me on this because it's not my area of expertise, but I believe China is the number one buyer of robots today. So, China put together that made in China 2025 blueprint back in 2014 where they said we want to be, we want to enjoy supremacy, not be competitive supremacy in chips, AI EVs. Autonomous technologies and robotics. So on chips, they've fallen way short on EVs. They've just got way beyond. We'll see how they go with humanoids. I don't know.

在过去五年中，我们在这个行业中看到了一些有点反直觉的趋势。毫无疑问，我们看到了汽车工厂对机器人的大规模投资。所以你去中国，这种情况正在发生。而且，从某种程度上说，我相信，不要引用我的话，因为这不是我的专业领域，但我相信中国目前是全球第一大机器人购买国。所以，中国在2014年制定了“中国制造2025”蓝图，他们表示希望在芯片、人工智能、电动汽车、自动化技术和机器人领域占据主导地位，而不只是竞争地位。在芯片方面，他们远远落后，在电动汽车方面则取得了巨大成功。至于人形机器人，我们拭目以待。我不清楚会发生什么。

Paragraph 3: But as you said, they have massive, the Chinese mindset is very much, it's our time to shine. Xi Jinping, the leader said, we're moving to the center, US to the side, Europe to the side. It's our time to shine. So they're feeling quite confident. And they have the resources. So they're going through massive deflation. They're struggling at this point. In fact, it's the opposite. If anything right now, they're so what do you, what do things going to happen? How do you play this out? It's a great point because they, in a way, they wanted their cake and eat it too. So we're the center of the world, manufacturing leaders and will export globally and everyone be dependent on us, but they're finding that maybe it's a two way street.

但正如你所说，他们具有巨大的实力，中国人的心态非常强烈，认为现在是我们大展拳脚的时候。习近平领导人说，我们正在走向中心，美国在旁边，欧洲在旁边。现在是我们大展拳脚的时候。因此，他们感到非常自信。他们有资源。因此他们正在经历巨大的通货紧缩。他们目前正在挣扎。事实上，情况正好相反。现在，如果有什么，他们正在思考将会发生什么？你如何进一步展开？这是一个很好的观点，因为实际上，他们希望一举两得。所以我们是世界的中心，是制造业的领导者，将商品全球出口，每个人都依赖我们，但他们发现这可能是双向的。

Paragraph 4: And so today, I sense that there's enormous pressure on Xi Jinping. There's no obvious successor to him. So bets are that he will continue to be in power until such time that the economy deteriorates to a point that people say enough. And there's some kind of unexpected event that I can't predict, but that's sort of the history of Chinese leadership. He's holding on. He's not thinking about going anywhere. And he's insistent that the party leads in all categories and the private sectors are simply to serve the party. And it hasn't been going well for him in the last few years. But he doesn't have any opponents. Where's my competition? Interesting. That's my way of avoiding it. I don't know if you can answer the question. Nobody knows the answer to the question. Of course. The iron is in. So tell me, let's go back to Tesla. Right.

因此今天，我感觉习近平面临巨大的压力。他身边没有明显的继任者。所以人们认为他会继续掌权，直到经济恶化到人们说“够了”的地步。也可能会发生我无法预测的某种意外事件，但这是中国领导人的历史。他坚守阵地，没有考虑离开。他坚持认为党应在各个领域领导，并且私营部门只是为党服务。在过去几年里，他的情况并不好。但他没有任何对手。我的竞争对手在哪里呢？有趣。这是我回避它的方式。我不知道你是否能回答这个问题。没有人知道这个问题的答案。当然。局势已定。那么告诉我，让我们回到特斯拉。是的。

Paragraph 5: So there's this belief that Tesla is far ahead of everybody else. And then there's somebody who said last week that, you know, there's a chance that the Chinese would overlap Tesla. What you're thinking is what is Tesla's strengths and what is it that they could still like, I cannot see any other company, no matter what, not even the Chinese. There's no way that they're getting in my mind. Or everything I know about how Tesla runs. Yes. But I won't underestimate the Chinese. I'm not going to do that, but I'm just, it's just, I just know too much about Tesla's advantages. What's your perspective? I think Tesla's secret superpower would be imagination. And that leads to innovation. And that leads to new features, new breakthroughs that seems to, that it's very difficult to keep up with. In contrast, the Chinese tend to use brute force of massive scale, drive down costs, precision when it comes to quality and all the rest. But where is the innovation? Where is the imagination? Some people will say, hey, that's unfair and they might be right because the Chinese do do a good job at the tech sectors, infusing their cars with all kinds of features and infotainment and karaoke and all the rest. But these in my mind are more playful things, not serious game changing innovation. So I think Tesla's in a class by itself. And I believe privately, if you ask the top 10 Chinese automakers, they'd all nod in respect. They have deep respect for Tesla that they're not there yet. They're like to be there, but I think Tesla's been shaped for years to come. You're an auto industry expert, but there's been at least one tectonic change, which is the EV revolution is happening.

所以有这样一种观念，认为特斯拉远远领先于其他所有公司。然后上周有人说，你知道，中国有可能会超越特斯拉。你会想，特斯拉的优势是什么，以及他们可能还有什么隐藏的优势，我无论如何也看不到其他任何公司，甚至不是中国公司。他们绝不可能在我的脑海中存在。或者是在我对特斯拉的了解中找不到。是的，但我不会低估中国人。我不会这样做，但我只是觉得，我对特斯拉的优势了解过多。你的看法是什么？我认为特斯拉的秘密超能力就是想象力。这导致创新。这导致新功能、新突破，似乎很难跟得上。相比之下，中国人倾向于利用庞大规模的蛮力，降低成本，对质量和其他方面进行精确控制。但创新在哪里？想象力在哪里？有些人会说，嘿，这是不公平的，他们可能是正确的，因为中国在科技领域做得很好，给他们的汽车注入各种功能和娱乐设备，点唱机等等。但在我看来，这些更多是有趣的东西，而不是真正改变游戏规则的创新。所以我认为特斯拉独树一帜。我相信私下里，如果你问十家顶尖的中国汽车制造商，他们都会对特斯拉表示尊重。他们对特斯拉深表尊重，但他们还没有达到那个水平。他们希望达到那个水平，但我认为特斯拉已经奠定了未来的基础。虽然你是汽车行业专家，但至少有一个重大变革，即电动汽车革命正在发生。

Paragraph 6: Clearly, EV is the future. You agree with that? What about autonomy? So what is the world going to look like if cars are able to self drive? Version 12 is looking very promising. And it's self learning. It's neural net AI. We all kind of understanding that AI can do amazing things. What happens? How do you see auto? Do you think people will car makers will stop selling this? There's people are telling me that, no, there's huge. You know, I'm a driver. I always want to buy my own car. And automakers will always sell this. But if you, when I think about the business model for automakers, why would you sell it if you can make five times as much on a yearly, a continuous yearly basis? How do you see it playing out with autonomy and robotax? I feel like it's going to be in pockets, or not nationwide.

很明显，电动汽车是未来。你同意吗？那么自主性又怎样呢？如果汽车能够自动驾驶，世界会变成什么样子？版本12看起来非常有前途。而且它是自学习的。它是神经网络人工智能。我们都知道AI能做出惊人的事情。会发生什么呢？你怎么看待自动驾驶？你认为汽车制造商会停止销售它吗？有些人告诉我说，不会，销量很大。我是一个司机，我总是想要买自己的车。汽车制造商将会持续销售。但是，当我考虑汽车制造商的商业模式时，如果你每年能赚取五倍的利润，为什么还要销售呢？你怎么看待自动驾驶和无人出租车的发展？我觉得它会局部地实现，而不是全国性。

So we'll have these like special zones where it gets traction and it really works. And it's like they say the future is already here. It's unevenly distributed. That's what I anticipate. Then you'll have large swaths of nations in North America where that's a strange bizarre way to get around. Maybe one day, but that looks like Martians to us. So I feel as though it will be incremental, not sort of instantaneous overnight sensation. But it's coming and it's thrilling and it will happen, but in Ireland, on islands like that.

因此，我们将拥有这些特殊区域，在那里这种技术会得到推广并真正发挥作用。就像他们说的未来已经存在，只是分布不均。这就是我预期的情况。然后，你会看到北美一些国家有大片地区，那种交通方式对他们来说是奇怪和奇特的。也许有一天会实现，但对我们来说那看起来就像是火星人。因此，我觉得这将是逐步的，不会是一夜之间就发生的轰动。但它正在到来，令人兴奋并且将会实现，只是在像爱尔兰这样的岛屿国家。

Yeah. Do you think that cities will actually embrace it? Or do you think that as many think that they're going to put up so much regulations and rep, you know, they're going to slow it down. And they don't want it to happen versus the opposite, which is, you know, that's going to be a race to see. I'm going to be the first city, the first state that allows robotaxi. Up until now, California was the sweetheart of the autonomous vehicle technology companies. And then ironically, or, you know, counterintuitively, it's also been the toughest, turned into the toughest regulatory environment. So look for companies to sort of decamp to Texas or Florida, or who knows, you know, Ohio, just places that are more Arizona, places that are more welcoming to risk and innovation.

是的。你认为城市会实际接受这个吗？还是你认为像许多人认为的那样，他们会制定很多限制和规定，从而减缓进展。他们不希望这种事情发生，与之相反，你知道，这将是一场竞赛。我将是第一个允许无人驾驶出租车的城市，第一个州。到目前为止，加利福尼亚一直是自动驾驶技术公司的宠儿。然后具有讽刺意味的是，或者说是逆向思维的是，它也成为了最严格的监管环境。因此，有望看到公司开始向德克萨斯、佛罗里达、或者谁知道的俄亥俄等地迁移，这些地方更加欢迎风险和创新。

Yeah, that's, and I think that, so we'll see it again, being geographic specific rather than sort of a trend that takes over the nation. You know, and then you talk to people on the street, yeah, I travel all the time. I was, you know, last on the East Coast last week, and meet people and they're like, I would never get into a car where I'm not driving. So you forget, oh, yeah, there's all kinds of people and different lifestyles out there. Yeah, people say that. And then, they don't have the imagination, like you said, and all of a sudden, it changes, and all of a sudden, it changes.

是的，我认为是这样，所以我们会再次看到这种现象，它是地理特定的，而不是一种在整个国家流行的趋势。你知道的，然后你在街上和人们交谈，他们说，是的，我总是在旅行。上周我在东海岸，认识了一些人，他们说，我绝对不会坐在不是我自己开的车里。所以你会想，哦，是的，世界上有各种不同的人和生活方式。是的，人们都这样说。然后，他们就没有像你说的那样的想象力，突然之间，一切就发生了变化。

I mean, this is an amazing world that's in just, like you said, 2018 to now, the world has changed so quickly. And the automotive, you know, the players, the technology, what's about the comments is crazy. So you shared a little bit more, opened up my eyes in terms of how powerful and how, you know, the Chinese industry shares some big numbers there. Yeah, I think you said they're the new sheriff in town. Yes.

我的意思是，这个世界太神奇了，就像你说的那样，从2018年到现在，世界变化得非常快。汽车行业的参与者、技术发展，听到的评论都是令人吃惊的。你分享了一些更多的内容，让我眼界开阔，了解了中国工业的强大和重要性。是的，我想你说他们是新的警长。对。

They are the new sheriff in town. They have pricing or cost spaces that. Impossible to me. Just impossible. So if I am a Tesla investor, and I am, but if I'm thinking about, you know, today our conversation as a Tesla investor, what keeps me up at night? The number one thing is political tensions with China. So imagine it's our business, and we own it outright. Half of our productions in China, a large and lucrative markets in China. Supply chains, a lot of our supply chains are in China. That could go away with a stroke of the pen. Nope, you're done. Oh, my goodness. Yeah, huge stuff. Yeah.

他们是新上任的警长。他们有定价或成本领域。对我来说不可能。简直不可能。所以如果我是特斯拉的投资者，而我就是，但如果我在思考，你知道的，作为特斯拉的投资者的今天我们的谈话，使我夜不能寐的是什么？第一件事是与中国的政治紧张关系。所以想象一下这是我们的生意，我们完全拥有。一半的生产都在中国，中国是一个巨大而有利可图的市场。供应链，我们的许多供应链都在中国。这可能会在一笔笔之间消失。不行，你完了。哦，我的天啊。是的，非常重要的事情。是的。

But also just to be clear, Tesla, China is 99% in China. 95% of all suppliers are Chinese suppliers. So if they did that, they're harming themselves. Yes, they are. I've seen interviews with Chinese governments and they speak, not only, like you said, tremendous respect, but they believe that Tesla's presence in China kickstarted. The electric vehicle revolution there, and that the EV companies there are all benefiting from Tesla to be there as opposed to that they're competing against each other. They find that they are learning that the suppliers, of course, and all that. Herbert, I've said it better.

但也要明确，特斯拉在中国99% 业务在中国。 95%的供应商都是中国供应商。所以如果他们这样做，他们实际上是在伤害自己。是的，他们是。我看过有关中国政府的采访，他们表达出巨大的尊重，并且相信特斯拉在中国的存在引发了电动汽车革命。他们认为中国的电动汽车公司都从特斯拉的存在中受益，而不是相互竞争。他们发现他们正在学习供应商等方面。赫伯特，我没说错吧。

You're exactly right. They love that Tesla's there. I call it the Tesla effect from 2020. If you look at few map demand for EVs in China, it went from EVs or compliance cars that no Chinese consumer really wanted to. Oh, my God, that the greatest thing I've ever seen. I want one too. That lines up exactly with when Tesla went in there. And so the benefits to China have been enormous.

你说得没错。他们很喜欢特斯拉在那里。我称之为2020年的特斯拉效应。如果你看看中国电动汽车的需求地图，从电动汽车或者中国消费者真的不想要的符合性车辆开始。哦，天啊，那是我见过的最棒的东西。我也想要一个。这正好与特斯拉进入中国的时间吻合。中国获得了巨大的好处。

If we look at the arc of Western tech companies in China over the last few years, there's like saying, and we're kind of like zero to 10. And that means you're done. So we're probably at five, four or five now we're peaking. And the next couple of years we'll be able to tell is, are we going to stay at five or we're going to start to become less relevant or useful to China as China learns to do it themselves. Interesting.

如果我们回顾过去几年西方科技公司在中国的发展，可以说，我们现在就像是从零到十的过程中。这意味着我们已经完成了。所以现在我们可能处在五、四或五的位置，正在达到顶峰。在接下来的几年内，我们将能够看到，我们会保持在五的水平，还是会开始变得对中国来说不那么重要或有用，因为中国学会了自己去做。很有趣。

Okay. Well, thank you so much, Michael. That was great. Your knowledge is really unmatched here. Appreciate you. People can check out his website at done insights.com. You truly are an auto industry expert and your global auto industry expert. That's really important. You can follow Michael on X done underscore insights. Just fantastic. So thank you so much for your time. That was good. Appreciate you for having me really enjoyed it.

好的。嗯，非常感谢你，Michael。太棒了。你的知识在这里确实是无与伦比的。感谢你。大家可以查看他的网站doneinsights.com。你确实是汽车行业的专家，而且是全球汽车行业的专家。这真的很重要。你可以在X done_insights上关注Michael。太棒了。非常感谢你的时间。很棒。感谢你邀请我，我真的很享受这次访谈。

I've created a website that is the most comprehensive resource for the Tesla investor. Please check it out. Simply go to my website at herbernall.com. I've created a website that is the most comprehensive resource for the Tesla investor. Please check it out. Simply go to my website at herbernall.com.

我创建了一个网站，是提供给特斯拉投资者的最全面资源。请查看一下。只需访问我的网站herbernall.com即可。