Markets Weekly March 2, 2024
发布时间 2024-03-02 14:28:02 来源
Hello my friends, today is March 2nd and this is Markets Weekly. So this week another great weekend market, we got the S&P 500, the NASDAQ closing at all new all-time highs. It looks like the crash up is continuing. Now I've been hearing more and more anecdotal reports of people who are not usually involved in markets becoming interested and becoming invested. Now when I hear stories like this, I'm of two minds. On the one hand, perhaps it marks a top. After all, we've heard these stories say during the housing boom in the early 2000s where waitresses had 5 houses, garners had 10 houses and that seemed to mark the top.
大家好，今天是3月2日，这里是市场周报。本周又有一个伟大的周末市场，标普500指数和纳斯达克指数创下了新的历史新高。看来这场疯狂的上涨还在继续。我听到越来越多关于那些平时不太涉及市场的人变得感兴趣并且开始投资的趣闻。当我听到这样的故事时，我心里有着两种想法。一方面，也许这标志着市场的顶部。毕竟，我们在2000年初的房地产繁荣时期听到过这样的故事，女服务员拥有5套房子，园丁拥有10套房子，最后市场见顶了。
Or during the tech bubble in the 1990s, we had everyone in their dog buying all sorts of tech stocks and that seemed to mark the top as well. Now I look at this differently. I think to have any proper bull market, you need to have a lot of involvement. So hearing widespread involvement in the market gives me additional confidence that we are in a bull market. Now these things, they can go on for months, they can go on for years. I don't actually think it really tells you that much as to how long this can last. Now everyone has a different view of this. I present mine. I encourage you to listen to other people to get their perspective as well. But I personally think that we are going to surge. But that's not what we're going to talk about today. Today we're going to talk about three things.
在1990年代的科技泡沫期间，每个人都在买各种科技股，这似乎也标志着市场的顶峰。现在我对此有了不同的看法。我认为要有任何真正的牛市，需要有很多人的参与。所以听到市场普遍参与让我对我们正在经历一轮牛市更有信心。现在这些事情可能会持续几个月，甚至几年。我实际上并不认为这真的告诉你这段时间可以持续多久。每个人对此有不同看法。我表达我的看法。我鼓励你听取其他人的观点。但我个人认为我们即将上涨。但今天我们不会讨论这个。今天我们要谈论三个事情。
First, let's talk about Bitcoin. Bitcoin has been in the press nonstop because it has basically soared in price. Let's talk about what could be driving that. Secondly, let's talk about Japan. So it got some interesting data from Japan. It seems like their inflation is hotter than expected. It seems like finally, finally, the Bank of Japan might be ready to high-grade submit and maybe exit negative interest rate policy. And lastly, I want to talk a little bit about a lot of the news that we've heard on the Western powers, seizing Russian foreign reserves.
首先，让我们谈谈比特币。比特币一直在媒体上被大肆报道，因为它的价格基本上飙升了。让我们谈谈可能推动这种情况的因素。其次，让我们谈一谈日本。我们从日本得到了一些有趣的数据。似乎他们的通货膨胀比预期还要厉害。看起来，最终，最终，日本央行可能准备好高级提交，也许退出负利率政策。最后，我想谈一下我们听到的关于西方大国扣押俄罗斯外汇储备的许多新闻。
So my sense is that they've been building a case for that over the past few weeks and that they're going to do it. Let's talk about what's happening there and how again that strongly suggests that the monetary order, the financial system, is definitely heading towards more of a multilateral system, not immediately, but gradually and in my view inevitably. Okay, starting with Bitcoin. So as we can see, Bitcoin has been surging. It's not yet at all time highs, but it looks like it's inevitable. Now the way that I look at Bitcoin, same way I look at any asset price, always about supply and demand. So let's break it down. So I think that the proxent cause of the surge in demand for Bitcoin really is the Bitcoin ETFs. They are making Bitcoin a lot more accessible to the public. Now looking at Bitcoin, it's an interesting asset. But if you want to buy it, usually it's not that straightforward.
所以我的感觉是他们过去几周一直在为此建立案例，而且他们将会这样做。让我们谈谈那里发生了什么，以及如何再次强烈暗示货币秩序、金融体系肯定正在逐渐走向更多边系统，不是立即，但在我的看法中是不可避免的。好的，从比特币开始。正如我们所看到的，比特币一直在飙升。它还没有达到历史最高水平，但看来这是不可避免的。现在我看比特币的方式，和看任何资产价格一样，始终关注供需。所以让我们来分析一下。我认为导致比特币需求激增的直接原因实际上是比特币ETF。它们使比特币更加容易接触公众。现在看看比特币，这是一个有趣的资产。但如果你想购买它，通常并不那么简单。
You can go and of course skin and account at a cryptocurrency exchange. But then I think that's kind of difficult for most people who are just not that attuned to markets and to technology, what's this thing about having a wallet and so forth. Now the Bitcoin ETFs really solve that problem by making it so easy to gain Bitcoin exposure that even a boomer can do it. Just log into your shop account or whatever and click buy and you can get Bitcoin exposure through an ETF. Now if you look at a graph of Bitcoin ETFs, you can see that they've had tremendous amounts of inflows by several billion. So that's obviously going to be having an impact on Bitcoin prices. Now now that we have these big pipes where money can flow through ETFs to Bitcoin, that's a huge tailwind.
你可以去一家加密货币交易所注册账户并购买加密货币。但我觉得对大多数人来说，市场和技术方面的理解不够深入，比如管理数字钱包等问题，可能会觉得有些困难。现在比特币ETFs通过让获取比特币变得如此简单来解决这一问题，即使是传统一代也可以做到。只需登录你的账户，点击购买按钮，即可通过ETF获取比特币。如果你看一下比特币ETFs的图表，你会发现它们已经吸引了数十亿美元的资金流入。这显然会对比特币价格产生影响。现在我们有了这样一条可以通过ETF将资金流向比特币的大通道，这将是一个巨大的推动因素。
Now one other thing that I noticed that I think is super, super interesting and super important is that Bitcoin seems to have more widespread appeal or mainstream appeal even among the institutional asset community.
现在我注意到的另一件事是，我觉得非常、非常有趣和非常重要的一点是，比特币似乎在机构资产社区中具有更广泛的吸引力或主流吸引力。
Now Fidelity Canada has an ETF, they call it a quote unquote conservative ETF or something of that sort. They've changed their model allocations to have 1% to crypto currencies. Now I'm pretty sure what's happening is that all these, their clients are reading all this excitement about Bitcoin in the news and wanting to get some exposure and so the advisors are obliging.
现在加拿大富达有一个ETF，他们称其为一个所谓的保守型ETF或类似的产品。他们改变了模型配置，将1%的资金配置给加密货币。现在我很确定正在发生的是，所有这些客户都在阅读新闻中关于比特币的兴奋情绪，想要获得一些曝光，所以顾问们正在应允他们。
But the thing is Fidelity, it's a legit mainstream organization and the ETF is considered to be conservative. And so if you have more and more asset managers, more and more institutional investors just allocating a little bit, trace them out of their AUM to crypto currencies.
但问题是，富达公司是一个合法的主流机构，而该ETF被认为是保守型的。因此，如果有越来越多的资产管理者和机构投资者只是分配一小部分资产到加密货币市场中，那么情况就会越来越好。
For them it's a small amount but for the Bitcoin, for the cryptocurrency community, it's hundreds of billions of dollars. And so that could really make assets like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies surge. So there's a lot of potential there for some really, really crazy upside in these crypto currencies if this continues.
对他们来说这是一笔小数目，但对于比特币、加密货币社区来说，这是数百亿美元。因此，这可能会让比特币等其他加密货币的资产激增。因此，如果这种情况持续下去，这些加密货币就有很大的潜力获得非常惊人的上涨。
Now this movement by this Fidelity Canada ETF, it's just one fun, it's just one branch of Fidelity. But it could suggest that it's becoming more popular and once one person starts, maybe others will follow. So we'll see. Now the other side of course is supply.
现在这个由加拿大富达ETF引发的行动只是一种有趣的现象，只是富达的一个分支。但这可能表明它正在变得更受欢迎，一旦有人开始，也许其他人会跟随。所以我们拭目以待。当然，另一方面是供应的问题。
So in April, we're going to have what's known as a Bitcoin halving. So the halving is, so as we all know Bitcoin, a total amount is 21 million, never one would be more than that fixed supply.
所以在四月份，我们将会经历所谓的比特币减半。比特币的减半意味着，正如我们所知，比特币总量为2100万枚，永远不会超过这个固定的供应量。
But the rate at which miners can produce Bitcoin that varies over time. Halving is when the rate that miners can produce Bitcoin declines. And so you can say that in a sense, perhaps you can think of the supply of Bitcoin as becoming a bit scarce, at least from a full perspective. Historically, these halving have been events where people perceive it to be bullish for prices and start buying Bitcoin and pumping the prices up. Now seems like it's doing this right now.
但是矿工生产比特币的速率是会随时间变化的。减半是指矿工生产比特币的速率下降的时候。因此可以说，在某种意义上，你可以认为比特币的供应变得有点稀缺，至少从整体角度来看。历史上，这些减半事件被人们认为会对价格产生利好影响，从而开始购买比特币并推高价格。现在看起来就像正在发生这种情况。
Now just to take the other side though, there is another interesting note from JP Morgan, who suggests that halving is actually not, might not be very good for Bitcoin prices, simply because it raises the cost of miners. Now, again, I don't really study this all that much, but I just thought it would be helpful for you to know that there are two sides to this, just so you can make a better decision.
现在只是从另一个角度来看，摩根大通提出了另一个有趣的观点，认为减半实际上可能不会对比特币价格有很好的影响，因为这会增加矿工的成本。再次强调，我并没有深入研究这个问题，但我认为让你知道这一点可能对你做出更好的决定有帮助。
So the next thing I want to talk about is what's happening in Japan. So Japan, as we all know, even though the Fed, ECB, you know, Bank of England, Canada, everyone else in the world has been hyphen rates to fight higher than expected inflation, the Bank of Japan has actually done nothing and sat at negative interest rates all throughout the post-COVID years.
接下来我想谈谈日本发生的事情。我们都知道，尽管美联储、欧洲央行、英国央行、加拿大央行等全世界其他央行为了抵御高于预期的通胀率而加息，但日本央行实际上什么都没有做，在疫情后一直保持负利率。
But it seems like that might finally be changing. Now, even though the Bank of Japan has an inflation target 2% like everyone else, and even though inflation has been far above the Bank of Japan's target for some time, the Bank of Japan hasn't felt like doing anything. Now they were suffering years of disinflation and sometimes deflation, and they didn't want to raise rates when finally, finally, they seemed to be at potentially defeating disinflation.
但是看起来这种情况可能终于会改变。现在，尽管日本银行的通缩目标和其他人一样是2％，并且通货膨胀已经远远超过日本银行的目标一段时间，但日本银行似乎不想采取任何行动。现在他们遭受了多年的通缩和有时甚至是通货紧缩，当最终似乎有可能战胜通缩时，他们并不想提高利率。
So they didn't want to, I guess, ruin the moment. They wanted to be sure that inflation was sustainably around their target before they would do anything. And now, they seem to be finally more comfortable. Now recently, we had the CPI come in hotter than expected, but no, not especially hot still at 2%.
所以我猜他们不想破坏这一刻。他们希望确保通货膨胀稳定在他们的目标周围之后才会采取任何行动。现在，他们似乎终于更加自在了。最近，我们的消费者价格指数比预期高，但并不特别高，仍然在2%左右。
But there's more and more signals from members of the monetary policy committee there that, you know, maybe we can start to move monetary policy a little bit. Now the deputy governor of the Bank of Japan gave a really interesting speech, believe a few weeks ago, or he noted that, you know, even if we were to hike rates, we are only becoming less accommodated.
但是，现在越来越多货币政策委员会成员发出的信号表明，也许我们可以开始调整一点货币政策。现在日本银行副行长发表了一篇非常有趣的演讲，大概几周前，他指出，即使我们提高利率，我们仍然只是变得不那么宽松。
We are not becoming restrictive. So what he's saying is that moving from negative interest rates to say zero, you know, it's not tightening policy so much added as it is about becoming less accommodative. Policy will still be very accommodative.
我们并不是在变得越来越严格。所以他的意思是，从负利率转向零利率，并不是加大政策干预力度，而是变得不那么宽松。政策仍将非常宽松。
Now people have been speculating on the Bank of Japan raising interest rates for some time, but it just hasn't come. The best way to look at this is to look at the two year JGBs. Again, two year bonds are very sensitive to the path of policy in Japan as they are in the US.
现在人们一直在猜测日本银行是否会提高利率，但实际上却并未实现。最好的方法是观察两年期国债。与美国一样，两年期国债对日本的政策路径非常敏感。
And you can see that the two year yield in Japan has been soaring over the past few months. Markets are very much prepared for Japan to exit negative interest rates. Now what does that mean for markets broadly?
你可以看到近几个月来，日本的两年期收益率一直在飙升。市场已经做好了准备，认为日本将退出负利率政策。那么这对于市场整体意味着什么呢？
So first thing you want to look at is, of course, the currency. So as everyone in the world has been raising rates in Japan as the negative, that's been tremendously negative for the Japanese yen. And we see the yen now around 150 yen to one US dollar. Now some people worry that once Japan begins to raise interest rates, well, maybe the yen preachates significantly, maybe it blows up a whole lot of carry trades. Carry trade would be when you borrow, say, in a cheap currency like the Japanese yen and use the proceeds to buy higher yielding stuff in other countries in Eurozone in US, for example.
首先要看的是货币。世界上所有人都在提高利率，而日本的利率是负利率，这对日元的影响非常负面。我们现在看到日元兑美元约为150日元兑1美元。有些人担心，一旦日本开始提高利率，日元可能会大幅升值，可能会引发大量套利交易的崩盘。套利交易是指借入便宜的货币，如日元，然后利用所得购买其他国家，如欧元区和美国，的高收益产品。
Now that's been a constant fear for people for some time, but I don't really worry about that because as we just discussed, the Bank of Japan is well aware of the amount of levered positions here and they want to go very slowly and have been telegraphing their move months in advance. So even though we see the Bank of Japan and probably going to raise rates soon, you can still see the yen around 150 and everything else in the markets seems quite steady. At the end of the day, even if the Bank of Japan raised rates a little bit, the interest differential between them and the US is still large and of course the market has been pricing in fewer fed cuts. So I think this is going to be a big moment for Japan to finally exit negative interest rates, but I think that this has been honestly telegraphed to the markets just for such a long time that I don't think anyone is going to care.
这段话讨论了日本银行可能很快加息的可能性，但并不会对市场产生太大影响。因为日本银行已经很谨慎地向市场暗示了他们的行动，并且市场已经很早就开始了预期。即使日本银行加息，市场上的利率差异仍然很大，而且市场已经在预期美联储减少加息。因此，即使日本银行加息，市场也会保持稳定。我认为，日本退出负利率政策将是一个重要时刻，但市场已经有很长时间来适应这个变化，所以我认为没有人会过分担心这个问题。
Okay, the last thing that I want to talk about is this development we're seeing where the Western powers are going to do something about Russian farm reserves. Just to rewind a little bit, now a couple years ago, Russia invaded Ukraine and what the Western powers did was they immediately froze the Russia's central bank reserves. Basically the Russian central bank, they have dollars in euros on deposit in financial institutions in the Western world. And when hostilities broke out, the Western powers froze access to them. So basically Russia wasn't able to access them anymore and it created a lot of problems for them.
好了，我想要谈谈的最后一件事是我们正在看到的西方大国将采取措施处理俄罗斯的农产品储备问题。回顾一下，几年前俄罗斯入侵了乌克兰，西方大国立即冻结了俄罗斯的中央银行储备。基本上说，俄罗斯中央银行在西方世界的金融机构中有美元和欧元存款。当敌对行动爆发时，西方大国冻结了对这些储备的访问权限。因此，俄罗斯无法再访问这些资金，给他们带来了很多问题。
Over the past few weeks, I'm getting the sense that the Western governments are building trying to manufacture consent to actually do something about those reserves. So they're just not frozen. So the way that I look at this personally is that there's strong relationship between the media outlets and the government so that when the government wants to do something, they will tell their media outlets to run stories that prepare the public for it and to build support for it. And we see that in the financial times, in the Western Journal and so forth, all these opinion pieces trying to tell you that it's actually a great thing for the Western governments to take money, take the reserves and give them to Ukraine.
在过去的几周里，我感觉到西方政府正在试图制造对这些储备采取行动的同意。因此它们并非被冻结。在我个人看来，媒体机构和政府之间存在着紧密的关系。当政府想要做某事时，他们会要求媒体机构发布相关报道，为此做准备，并为此建立支持。我们在《金融时报》、《西方日报》等媒体中看到类似的现象，所有这些评论都在试图告诉你，西方政府将资金和储备转移给乌克兰实际上是件好事。
Now the backdrop of this of course is that the war is not going well for Ukraine and they seem to be running out of funds and manpower. Now in the US, Congress has been deliberating on a bill to send additional funding to Ukraine but it looks like it's not going to happen. And the European governments don't have that much money either. So they're looking around and they're trying to find ways to get money to Ukraine. So they came up with the idea, well we have these reserves that used to belong to Russia, why don't we just give them to Ukraine? And that's the initial idea, floated by the US a few weeks ago.
现在的背景是乌克兰的战争局势并不顺利，他们似乎正在资金和人力方面陷入困境。美国国会一直在讨论一项向乌克兰提供额外资金的法案，但看起来可能无法实现。欧洲政府也没有那么多资金。因此，他们正在四处寻找办法为乌克兰筹集资金。于是，他们想到了一个主意，我们曾经拥有的这些储备属于俄罗斯，为什么不直接将它们送给乌克兰呢？这就是几周前美国提出的最初想法。
Just take the 300 billion in Russian reserves and just give it to Ukraine. But now, aside from being most definitely illegal, now to be clear, governments make laws for them, the law is really not an obstacle. But their self-interest is, so when you go, if you do something like this, there's going to be some retaliation. So that's one thing to keep in mind. But the European powers didn't seem to want to go for that, so they're proposing a little bit of a half measure. So instead of taking a full 300 billion and just giving it to Ukraine, why don't we just take the interest income from that 300 billion and give it to Ukraine as well.
只需拿出俄罗斯现有的3000亿储备，直接交给乌克兰。但现在，除了明显违法之外，明确指出，政府制定法律是为了自身利益，法律并不是障碍。但是，他们的自身利益是，所以如果你这样做，将会有报复行为。这是需要记住的一点。但是欧洲大国似乎不愿意采取这种做法，所以他们提出了一个半措施。因此，与其拿出全部3000亿并直接交给乌克兰，不如我们只拿出这3000亿的利息收入，并交给乌克兰。
After all, interest rates have risen a lot, say three, four percent, on 300 billion dollars, you know, that's several billion a year. Why don't we just give the interest income to Ukraine, we'll feel as bad as taking everything from the Russian central bank. But we'll also take some and we'll give it to Ukraine. Maybe that's legally defensible. Maybe that's what will happen. Now at the end of the day though, like I mentioned before, government makes laws, makes rules, so there's really no such thing as illegal to them. But on an international level, you have to have people to buy into your laws from other countries in order for the system to work. And so if you're doing something like this, I think it's a really big blow to confidence in the global financial system as designed from the Western powers.
毕竟，利率已经大幅上升了，比如说三、四个百分点，在3000亿美元上，你知道，那就是每年几十亿美元。为什么我们不直接把利息收入给乌克兰，我们会感觉很糟糕，就好像从俄罗斯中央银行拿走一切一样。但我们也会拿一部分给乌克兰。也许这在法律上是可以辩护的。也许这就是将会发生的事情。但归根结底，就像我之前提到的，政府制定法律，制定规则，对他们来说真的不存在非法的事情。但在国际层面上，你必须让其他国家的人遵守你的法律，才能让系统运转。因此，如果你做类似这样的事情，我认为这对西方大国设计的全球金融体系的信心造成了很大的打击。
So if you're someone like Saudi Arabia, if you're someone like China, if you're someone like India, who, you know, probably friends with the rest, but sometimes have diversion interests, you're going to be really worried about this. You're going to be worried that one day they're going to try to force you to take positions you don't want simply because if you don't, maybe they'll take your money away from you. So this definitely speeds the path towards moving towards a multilateral system where we have something that is in addition to the dollar system. Now everyone in the West thinks that, you know, yeah, we can do whatever we want because after all, you have no alternative, which is totally true.
如果你是沙特阿拉伯这样的国家，如果你是中国这样的国家，如果你是印度这样的国家，你可能与其他国家是朋友，但有时会有不同的利益。你会真的很担心这件事。你会担心总有一天他们会试图强迫你采取你不想要的立场，只因为如果你不这样做，也许他们会拿走你的钱。因此，这无疑加快了走向多边体系的道路，在那里我们将有一种除了美元体系以外的东西。现在西方的每个人都认为，是的，我们可以做任何事情，因为毕竟，你别无选择，这完全正确。
There's no alternative to the dollar. But when you do things like this, you are creating the need to have alternatives and eventually they will arise. So I think this is tremendously bearish for the Western financial system. But again, this is not something that's actionable. This is something that's going to take time. And one last thing I will leave to you is that why is it so important to get all this money to Ukraine? Well, one of our leaders in the Defense Department, Victoria Newland, will tell you why. By the way, we have to remember that the bulk of this money is going right back into the US economy to make those weapons. Again, when they take money from, let's say, the Russian reserves and give it to Ukraine, it's not actually giving it to Ukraine. It's actually giving it to US defense companies who will then give up to Ukraine.
目前还没有与美元相媲美的替代货币。但是当你做类似的事情时，你其实在创造对替代品的需求，并最终这些替代品会出现。因此我认为这对西方金融系统非常不利。但是再次强调，这并不是一件能立即行动的事情。这需要时间。最后我要告诉你们的是为什么将这么多资金输送到乌克兰如此重要？我们国防部的一位领导人维多利亚·纽兰德会告诉你原因。顺便说一句，我们必须记住大部分这笔资金实际上会迅速流回美国经济，用于生产武器。当他们从俄罗斯的储备中获取资金并将其转移到乌克兰时，实际上并不是在直接给予乌克兰，而是在供应给美国的国防企业，然后再转交给乌克兰。
Anyway, that's all I prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in. If you're interested in hearing my latest thoughts this week, I will write about what Governor Waller's proposal for the future of the Soma portfolio could mean for interest rates. Write about that every Monday on FedGuy.com. And if you're interested in learning more about markets, check out my courses at centralbanging101.com. Thanks so much. And I'll talk to you guys next week.
无论如何，这就是我今天准备的全部内容。非常感谢您的收看。如果您对听到我本周的最新想法感兴趣，我将会在FedGuy.com上每周一写关于沃勒州长对索马投资组合未来可能意味着利率的提议。如果您对学习更多关于市场感兴趣，请查看我在centralbanging101.com上的课程。非常感谢。下周再和大家交流。