Markets Weekly February 3, 2024

Hello my friends and welcome to Markets Weekly. So this week I'm recording a little bit earlier, so it's February 2nd, Friday afternoon. So what a week in markets, right? We had so many things going on as we previewed last week. And it looks like we're going to close at all time highs. So as you guys know, I'm super bullish on the equity market this year, but this is getting a little bit crazy. So I'm very cautious at the moment. So this week I want to talk about three things.

大家好，欢迎来到《市场周报》。这周我稍微早一些录制，所以今天是2月2日，星期五下午。这个星期市场发生了很多事情，就像我们在上周预测的那样。看起来我们将会创下历史最高点。大家都知道我对今年的股市非常看好，但现在情况变得有些疯狂。所以目前我非常谨慎。这周我想讨论三个问题。

First, let's talk about the prospect of the UOS economy re-accelerating since that's what the data seems to be indicating.

首先，让我们来谈谈 UOS 经济重新加速的前景，因为数据似乎表明这一点。

Secondly, let's talk about what happened at the quarterly refunding announcement. As we all know, the QRA has been market moving the past two quarters. And this time around, it seems to be less important. So, but let's talk about what happened there and why the market might not be so interested.

其次，让我们谈谈季度退款公告中发生了什么。众所周知，过去两个季度，季度退款公告一直对市场产生重大影响。而这一次，它似乎变得不那么重要了。但我们还是来讨论一下那里发生了什么，以及为什么市场可能对此不那么感兴趣。

Lastly, we seem to have a lot of excitement in the regional banking sector this past week. New York Community Bank, a regional bank based in New York reported earnings and had its stock price basically cut in half. Let's talk about what's happening over there.

最后，上周我们似乎在地区银行业有很多激动人心的事情发生。纽约社区银行是一家总部位于纽约的地区银行，他们报告了收益情况，导致其股价几乎被削减了一半。让我们来谈谈那里发生了什么。

Okay, starting with the data. So let's step back and level set a little bit. So as we all know, over the past couple years, Fed has been hiking rates, trying to slow the economy down. The economy hasn't really been cooperating. Quarter three of last year, we saw the economy grow at an annual rate of 4.9%, basically bonkers and far above the trend growth rate of about 2%. Now, quarter four, we slowed down a bit. Economy grew at estimated 3.3% annual rate, which is slower than 4.9, but still above trend. Now, many people were thinking that as we get deeper into the economic cycle, as things normalize, we're going to move towards 2% trend growth. Well, maybe we will this quarter, but so far, and to be clear, a lot of data is preliminary and the quarter is not even halfway done. So far, indicators are that maybe things are actually accelerating. So last time we talked about the PMI data, but let's talk about this GDP now indicator from the Atlanta Fed. So this is called a GDP now cast. And what it does is that it takes the latest data and it tries to predict where GDP will grow this quarter. So this is totally preliminary and it's going to be volatile. But so far, the Atlanta GDP now data is showing 4.2%. Now that's absolutely bonkers, probably definitely not going to be that high, but it is showing that the data that we're receiving so far has been a lot better than expected, which brings us to the Friday non-farm payroll print.

好的，我们从数据开始说起。现在我们稍微退后一步，做一个对等调整。正如我们都知道的，过去几年联邦储备系统一直在加息，试图减慢经济增长的速度。然而，经济并没有真正合作。去年第三季度，我们看到经济以年增长率4.9%的速度增长，基本上超过了大约2%的趋势增长率。现在，到了第四季度，我们的增速放缓了一些。预计经济以3.3%的年增长率增长，这比4.9%要慢，但仍然高于趋势增长率。现在，很多人认为随着我们进入经济周期的深入，事情逐渐正常化，我们会朝着2%的趋势增长率迈进。好吧，也许这个季度我们会实现，但目前而言（请清楚，很多数据都是初步的，而且这个季度还没有过半），迹象表明事实上可能正在加速。上次我们谈到了采购经理人指数（PMI）数据，现在我们来谈一下亚特兰大联储的国内生产总值（GDP）即时预测指标。这被称为“GDP现在预测”。它的作用是根据最新的数据预测本季度的GDP增长情况。这只是初步结果，可能会出现剧烈波动。但到目前为止，亚特兰大联储的GDP现在数据显示为4.2%。现在这个数字绝对是令人难以置信的，可能肯定不会达到这么高，但它表明我们目前收到的数据要好得多，超出预期。这就带我们来说说上周五的非农业就业报表。

Now Friday non-farm payroll print was unambiguously very good. So as we've discussed before, when we look at these reports, there's a few underlying components we want to look at. Well, first and foremost, which is what everyone focuses on, we have the headline number. Now the expectations were for job growth this month to be about 150,000 and we printed above 300,000. So it was a big beat. Now when you look into the other components, they're also pretty good as well. Unemployment rate ticked down a little bit and most importantly, wage growth accelerated. So it's 0.6% month over month. And this is super important because wage growth has input has can potentially feed into inflation affecting monetary policy. Labor force participation was unchanged from last time. And the payroll print we got in December was revised higher. So unambiguously, this is a very good job print and it has big implications on monetary policy. Now the market took one look at this and the rates sold off across the curve. Market is pricing out some rate cuts and pushing them further into the future. And as they should, the economy seems to be a lot stronger than we expected earlier. And so maybe the Fed has on the margins is less inclined to cut rates. But we'll see more about that as you guys all know, Jay Powell has a 60 minute interview airing this weekend. I don't think it's going to be talking much about monetary policy, but what we'll see. Now one other thing that I'd like to address is that so the non-farm payroll is actually comprised of two surveys. There is the establishment survey where they ask businesses and there's the household survey where they ask households. And many people are pointing out that these two surveys are giving diversion views, whereas the establishment survey, which is the one where we rely on for our headline number, is showing strong employment growth, but the household survey is actually showing declines in employment.

现在星期五非农就业数据显示非常好。正如我们之前讨论过的那样，在查看这些报告时，有几个基本组成部分我们要关注。首先是每个人都关注的主要数字。这个月就业增长预期约为15万，而实际增长超过了30万，因此是一个很大的超预期。当我们进一步看其他组成部分时，它们也都相当不错。失业率略有下降，最重要的是工资增长加速。每月增长了0.6%。这非常重要，因为工资增长可能会影响通胀，并进而影响货币政策。劳动参与率与上次持平，而我们在12月得到的就业数据也被修订得更高。毫无疑问，这是一个非常好的就业数据，对货币政策有重大影响。市场一看到这个数据，各个期限的利率就开始下跌。市场正在逐渐消除一些降息预期，并将它们推迟到更远的未来。正如它应该做的那样，经济似乎比我们之前预期的要强劲很多。因此，美联储在边际上减少降息的倾向可能会减少。但正如大家都知道的，杰伊·鲍威尔周末将接受60分钟的采访，我们将更多地了解到这一点。我认为他在采访中不会过多谈论货币政策，但我们拭目以待。还有一件我想要提到的事情是，非农就业数据实际上由两个调查组成。一个是对企业的访问，另一个是对家庭的访问。很多人指出，这两个调查给出了不同的观点，其中以我们依赖的对企业的调查结果为主的调查显示就业增长强劲，但对家庭的调查实际上显示就业下降。

Now, I think this is part of a broader discussion that many people and I've been seeing in social media and in the comments as to what indicators to look at. For example, if you look at GDP growth, do you look at GDP or do you look at GDI, which are two different measures trying to measure how much the economy is producing. Or if you're looking at inflation, do you look at, let's say, PCI, PCE, or do you look at private vendor things like true inflation? So my answer to this is what you focus on is really depending on your purpose. For myself, I look at this stuff because I want to see where markets are going, our prices are basically the number going to get bigger. Is the stock market going to go up or down? So that's what I focus on.

现在，我认为这是一个更广泛的讨论的一部分，我和许多人在社交媒体和评论中看到的问题是要看哪些指标。例如，如果你看GDP增长，你是看GDP还是看GDI，这是两种不同的衡量经济产出的指标。或者如果你在看通胀，你是看PCI，PCE还是看私人供应商的真实通胀率之类的东西？因此，我对此的答案取决于你的目的是什么。对我来说，我关注这些是因为我想知道市场将走向何方，我们的价格基本上是指数扩大还是缩小。股市会上涨还是下跌？所以这就是我的关注重点。

So when it comes to markets, the market cares about the headline number. So that's coming from the establishment survey about these other surveys that maybe show we can play mid growth. Maybe they're right, but honestly, the market doesn't care about that stuff and so I don't either. Same thing with inflation, maybe true inflation shows something different. But the Fed looks at PCE, market looks at PCE, so PCE is what matters. Same thing for GDP or GDI, market cares about GDP. And so that's what I focus on and that's what I think matters. Now if you're trying to figure out what the economy is actually doing, maybe you got out taken to look at these other measures, but if you care about what the markets will do, then you want to focus on what the markets care about. So far, it's looking like there is a prospect of the economy actually re-accelerating and if that's the case, it's going to be very interesting as to what the Fed would do because inflation is definitely coming down. But there is also the prospect of re-acceleration. So I guess we'll have more clues into what they're thinking heading forward.

所以当谈到市场时，市场关心的是头条数字。这是来自与其他可能展示我们能够实现中速增长的调查报告。也许他们是对的，但是老实说，市场并不关心这些事情，所以我也不关心。关于通胀也是如此，也许真正的通胀数据显示了不同的情况。但是美联储关注个人消费支出指数（PCE），市场也关注PCE，所以PCE才是重要的。国内生产总值（GDP）或国内生产总收入（GDI）也是一样，市场关心的是GDP。所以这是我关注的，也是我认为重要的。如果你想弄清楚经济实际上在做什么，也许你需要看这些其他指标，但是如果你关心市场会做什么，那么你应该关注市场关心的方面。到目前为止，看起来经济实际上有可能重新加速，如果是这样的话，联储会做出怎样的决策将非常有趣，因为通胀肯定在下降。但是也有重新加速的可能性。所以我想，我们将对他们未来的想法有更多线索。

Okay, now let's talk about the quarterly refunding announcement. So the QRA is the quarterly announcement where the Treasury announces to the world how they're going to fund the government. We get two things we want to focus on at the QRA. First is how much they're going to issue and that's going to be a function of the fiscal deficit. The fiscal deficit, even though we have all these things assigned into law, as to how much money the government will spend, we don't actually have a good grasp of tax receipts of the government's quote unquote revenue. This is because tax receipts are dependent upon a lot of things. How is the economy doing? If the economy is doing well, if we have a lot of growth, then you have a lot of payroll and so you can get a lot of payroll, a lot of employment taxes. Also depends on things like what's happening in the stock market. Stock market goes up a lot. Capital gains income tax receipts increase and so that decreases the fiscal deficit.

好的，现在我们来谈谈季度退款公告。所谓的季度退款公告是财政部宣布给全世界知道他们将如何筹资政府的公告。在季度退款公告中，我们要关注两个方面。首先是他们将发行多少资金，这将取决于财政赤字。尽管我们已经将政府支出的资金分配定为法律规定，但我们实际上对政府税收收入并没有很好的把握。这是因为税收收入取决于很多因素。经济状况如何？如果经济状况良好，我们有很多增长，那么我们可以获得很多薪资和就业税款。它还取决于股市的情况。如果股市大幅上涨，资本收益所得税收入就会增加，从而减少财政赤字。

The first thing in the QRA is that we found out that the fiscal deficit was slightly smaller than expected. It's not a big deal. It seems like it's about 50 billion. Sometimes the surprise can be large. The second thing we want to talk about is, and what I've been writing about and many people have been focusing on, is whether or not the US Treasury will continue to shift issuance towards bills. As a reminder, the US Treasury has a policy of having marketable treasuries be about 15 to 20 percent in treasury bills. Last October, when they surprised the market by announcing a substantial increase in coupon sizes, the market seemed to panic a bit and we saw a large increase in interest rates. The Treasury began to, I guess, try to soften that blow by heavily leading their issuance towards bills. And expressing a willingness for their bills as a share of marketable debt to significantly deviate from their guidance. And so as of December, bills were about 21.5 percent of marketable treasuries, so notably above the 20 percent threshold.

QRA的第一件事是我们发现财政赤字比预期略小，这并不是什么大问题，大约是500亿左右。有时候，这种意外可能会很大。第二件我们想讨论的事情是，我一直在谈论并且很多人关注的是，美国财政部是否会继续向短期国债转移发行。提醒一下，美国财政部的政策是，可销售国债中约占15%到20%是国债券。去年十月，当他们突然宣布大幅增加固息国债规模时，市场似乎有些恐慌，我们看到利率大幅上升。财政部开始试图通过大量发行国债券来软化这一打击，并表示愿意让国债券占可销售债务的份额明显偏离他们的指导。所以到去年12月，国债券约占可销售国债的21.5%，显著高于20%的阈值。

Now, the thinking right now at the QRA is that Treasury going to continue to do this in a big way. If they were to do this, though, there would be monetary policy implications.

现在，在资产质量评估办公室的思考是，财政部将继续大规模进行此项工作。然而，如果他们这样做，将会产生货币政策的影响。

Like I wrote about last week, one of the things the Fed is looking at when they're taking about T-pring quantity of tightening, well, they're looking at a lot of things and it's not clear what's more important, but first, they're going to look at money market rates. If they see repo rates rising, for example, maybe they're getting a bit concerned that QT is getting too aggressive, reserves are too low, and maybe they'll stop QT.

就像我上周写的那样，当美联储谈到量化紧缩（T-pring）的时候，他们关注的其中之一是很多事情，并且目前还不清楚什么更为重要，但首先，他们将会关注货币市场利率。例如，如果他们看到回购利率上升，可能会有一些担心QT的紧缩行动过于激进，储备资金过低，可能会停止QT的进行。

There are also some Fed officials who have been looking at the balances in the reverse repo facility and thinking that when the reverse repo facility gets too low, maybe we should stop doing QT. And so this is the Fed's data reaction function, but those two things are directly impacted by Treasury bill issuance.

还有一些美联储官员一直在关注逆回购设施的余额，并认为当逆回购设施的余额过低时，也许我们应该停止进行定向降息（QT）。因此，这是美联储的数据反映功能，而这两个因素直接受到国债发行的影响。

When the Treasury issues a lot of Treasury bills, that drains the RFP as it's been doing over the past few months. Again, it also puts upward pressure on repo rates. So the Treasury could have theoretically, if they wanted to, just kind of turbocharge bill issuance a little bit more and maybe gone QT a little bit earlier. But it looks like actually they were quite even handed.

当财政部发行大量国债券时，就像过去几个月一直在做的那样，这会耗尽拍卖回购操作（RFP）的资金。此外，这也会对回购利率产生上升压力。因此，理论上来说，财政部本可以稍微加大国债发行规模，可能提早进行定量紧缩（QT）。但实际上，他们似乎相当公正。

Now the key word that I was looking for that I saw in these statements is that they increase coupon size one more quarter as they predicted last November, but then they're telling you that they're done for several quarters. So the coupon size increase that we got this time around is going to be the last increase that we'll get for until maybe sometime next year. So I think that's very encouraging to the market because then there's no more surprises like there was in October. So the market can feel comfortable that coupon sizes are going to be what they are for the foreseeable future.

现在，我在这些陈述中看到的关键词是，他们与去年11月的预测一样，将在下个季度再次增加优惠券大小，但是他们告诉你，他们将在几个季度内不再增加。所以这次我们得到的优惠券大小增加将是我们在明年某个时候之前的最后一次增加。所以我认为这对市场来说是非常鼓舞人心的，因为这样就不会再像十月份那样出现意外情况。所以市场可以放心地认为优惠券的大小将会在可预见的未来保持不变。

Now Treasury did adjust them a little bit to try to soften the blow in the market. Looking at the guided sizes compared to last time, you can see that they slightly shifted lower the 30 year size. So the long bond, which we all know the market has had trouble digesting and said are issuing slightly more across the belly. So two to two to five years. So that that's them being sensitive to market demand. But even with this one more coupon size increase, the Treasury is still going to steadily increase its share of bills. It's not going to be an aggressive increase, but over the next couple years, we'll still see bills as a share of marketable treasuries steadily increase further from 21.5%. So they are definitely leaning towards short dated issuance, but you know, in a, I think in a moderate way. So it's going to gradually, I think, drain the RFP and gradually put upward pressure on money market rates. And so that has implications for the time of QTA. It doesn't look like they're going to be forcing it to do to pull it earlier.

现在，财政部对它们进行了一些调整，试图缓解市场的冲击。从与上次相比的指导规模来看，你可以看到他们稍微降低了30年期的规模。所以长期债券，我们都知道市场很难消化，并且正在稍微增发两到两到五年期的债券。所以这是他们对市场需求的敏感反应。但即使有了这种增发，财政部仍然会稳步增加国债的份额。这不会是一种激进的增长，但在接下来的几年里，我们仍然会看到国债作为可交易国债的份额逐渐提高，超过21.5%。所以他们显然倾向于发行较短期的债券，但我认为是以适度的方式。因此，我认为它会逐渐减少回购操作，逐渐对货币市场利率施加上升压力。因此，这对降准的时间有着重要影响。看起来他们不会迫使提前降准。

All in all, I think this was a good quarterly refunding announcement in. It's hard to know whether or not it moved markets. There was a lot going on, but I'm thinking that it probably didn't have too much of an impact.

总的来说，我认为这是一个不错的季度退款公告。很难知道它是否对市场产生了影响。虽然事情很多，但我认为它可能没有太大的影响。

Okay. The last thing that we'll talk about is what actually did have a big impact on that same day. So the same day as we had quarterly quarterly refunding announcement, the same day as we had the Fed meeting, we also had this announcement from New York Community Bank that, you know, the quarter wasn't really what we would have liked it to be. And their stock price, as we can see, has basically been cut in half, which is kind of funny because at the same day, as the Fed released their statement, they deleted a line that said that the banking sector was really safe and everything was okay. And then you have this happen on the same day.

好的。我们最后要谈论的是对那一天实际上产生了巨大影响的事情。就在我们发布季度退款公告的当天，就在我们举行联邦储备会议的当天，纽约社区银行也宣布，你知道，这个季度并不如我们所希望的那样。正如我们所看到的，他们的股价基本上被砍了一半，这有点好笑，因为在同一天，当联邦储备发布他们的声明时，他们删除了一句话，说银行业真的很安全，一切都还好。然后在同一天，你看到了这个发生。

Now to be perfectly clear, I believe the banking sector has a whole totally sound, totally not a problem. But then when you have over 4,000 banks, you're going to have a few that are not doing well. New York Community Bank is one of them. So what was their problem? Well, the problem seemed to be two things. First off, they announced some degree of credit problems in large part due to their office portfolio. So when we look at commercial real estate, we have to be careful commercial real estate. It's not just one big asset. You have things like hospitals, you have things like data centers, you have warehouses, you have multifamily, and of course, you have office space. So across all these different kinds of commercial real estate, they all have different fundamentals. What's clearly not doing well, of course, is office, especially office in big office centers.

现在要非常明确，我认为整个银行业都非常稳健，完全没有问题。但是，当你拥有超过4,000家银行时，就会有一些表现不佳的情况。纽约社区银行就是其中之一。那么他们的问题是什么呢？嗯，问题似乎有两个。首先，他们宣布了一定程度的信贷问题，这在很大程度上是由于他们的办公室资产组合所导致的。所以当我们看商业房地产时，我们必须小心商业房地产。它不仅仅是一个大的资产，你有像医院、数据中心、仓库、多户单位，当然还有办公空间这样的东西。所以在所有这些不同类型的商业房地产中，它们都有不同的基本面。当然，明显表现不佳的是办公室，尤其是位于大型办公中心的办公室。

Now let's look at this presentation from New York Community Bank. Well, they have an office portfolio and unfortunately about half of it is Manhattan office space. So as you can see, a lot of these, a lot of loans against this Manhattan office space, you know, potentially not doing that well. And so their credit provisions have been rising. So there's a lot of people concerned that maybe this office space really goes south. Maybe the banks that hold a lot of loans against office space take big losses. And that's certainly the concern here. So that's totally understandable.

现在让我们一起看一下来自纽约社区银行的这份演示文稿。嗯，他们有一份办公室资产组合，不幸的是其中大约一半是曼哈顿的办公空间。所以你可以看到，有很多贷款都是以这些曼哈顿办公空间为抵押，有可能表现不佳。因此，他们的信贷拨备一直在增加。大家都很担心，也许这些办公空间的市场状况会恶化。如果持有大量办公空间贷款的银行遭受巨大损失，这当然是一个令人担心的问题。所以这完全可以理解。

In fact, around the same time, we also had a report from a small Japanese bank that no one has ever heard of also having their stock price decline significantly. Reason US office space. So this small bank, which no one has ever heard of, actually had been very active lending in US office space. They were thinking that this was a stable asset. After all, everyone goes to the office, right? Well, yeah, except when COVID happened and everyone is working from home. And so they also took a big hit. So this could be suggesting that these small banks, which are not systemic, but who do have concentrated portfolios in office space, could be in some trouble. Now, I don't.

事实上，在大约同一时间，我们还收到了从一个没人听说过的小日本银行的报告，他们的股价也大幅下跌。原因是美国的办公场地。所以这家没人听说过的小银行实际上一直在积极向美国的办公场地提供贷款。他们认为这是一项稳定的资产。毕竟，每个人都去办公室，对吧？然而，嗯，除了COVID发生时每个人都在家工作。所以他们也受到了重大打击。这可能表明，这些非系统性的小银行，尽管他们在办公场地领域有集中的投资组合，但可能会遇到一些麻烦。现在，我并不认为。

So one thing to note though is in part, this is due to high interest rates, but I think the much bigger part is just a structural shift where many people are working from home. Now, even if rates were much lower, if you have a lot of people working from home, that office space is just not going to be worth the same thing that I used to. So there are some things that are happening here that are cultural rather than, let's say, whatever the Fed is doing.

有一件事需要注意的是，部分原因是由于高利率，但我认为更大的部分是由于工作场所结构的转变，许多人正在家里工作。即使利率降低了很多，如果有很多人在家工作，办公空间的价值也不会和过去一样。所以这里发生的一些事情是文化上的，而不是美联储正在做的事情。

Okay. Now, the second thing that seemed to really bother investors in your bank core was they cut your dividend substantially. Now, this cut in dividend is more idiosyncratic. Now, although they have problems in their portfolio, they also have some regulatory concerns in that they got bigger. So New York Community Bank War swallowed part of Signature Bank, which as we know went under, that pushed the size of their balance sheet to over a hundred billion and put them under more stringent regulations. In the US, you are regulated according to how big you are. And when you get to a certain size, the regulators are forcing you to hold more capital.

好的。现在，让我们来看你们银行核心业务中似乎真正困扰投资者的第二件事情，那就是你们大幅削减了分红。现在，这个分红的削减更具特殊性。尽管他们的投资组合存在问题，但他们还面临一些监管上的担忧，因为他们扩大了规模。所以，纽约社区银行吞并了Signature银行的一部分，而正如我们所知道的，Signature银行已经破产了，这使得他们的资产负债表规模超过了一千亿美元，并受到更严格的监管。在美国，你的监管取决于你的规模。当你达到一定规模时，监管机构会强制你持有更多资本。

Now, capital on a bank's balance sheet is a liability. What it is, is basically a cushion to absorb potential losses. Now, as you get bigger, you have to hold more capital. So where do you get money to fund that extra cushion? Well, if you're New York Community Bank, what you're trying to do is you're going to fund it out of your earnings. And so they are paying out fewer earnings as dividends to shareholders and just keeping that to cushion to top up their capital. So that's a regulatory thing that they kind of have to do. And maybe they could have prepared it a different way. But that's obviously going to hurt their stock price as well when investors are expecting a dividend.

现在，银行资产负债表上的资本是一项负债。它基本上是一个缓冲区，用于吸收潜在的损失。现在，随着规模的增大，你必须持有更多的资本。那么，你从哪里获得资金来资助这个额外的缓冲区呢？如果你是纽约社区银行，你想做的就是用你的盈利来资助它。因此，他们将少分红给股东，而是将盈利留作缓冲区以增加他们的资本。所以这是一项他们必须做的监管事项。也许他们可以以不同的方式准备，但当投资者期望获得股息时，显然这也会对他们的股价造成伤害。

So part of the story seems to be just exposure to US office space. Again, work from home is killing a lot of these portfolios. But part of it is just idiosyncratic regulation as the bank grew bigger. Now overall, as we've shown through FDIC data, commercial real estate as an exposure to banks, not that big, totally manageable. But if you are a small bank with big exposures to these office space things, I think you're going to have a tough time. It's not going to be systemic, but I think it's going to hurt if you're an investor in these individual banks. And

这个故事的一部分似乎只是暴露在美国办公空间中。同样，远程办公正在对很多投资组合造成伤害。但另一部分原因只是因为银行规模扩大时的特殊监管。总体而言，根据FDIC的数据显示，商业房地产作为银行的风险敞口，并不是太大，完全可控。但如果你是一家有大量办公空间风险敞口的小银行，我认为你将会面临很大困难。这不会成为系统性问题，但我认为如果你是这些个别银行的投资者，将会受到伤害。

OK, all right. That's all I prepared for this week. Thanks so much for tuning in. If you're interested in hearing more about my thoughts, check out my blog, FIDGuY.com. And of course, if you're interested in learning more about how markets work, check out my courses at centralbanking101.com. Talk to you all next week.

好的，没问题。这就是我这周为大家准备的全部内容了。非常感谢大家的收听。如果你对我更多的想法感兴趣，可以访问我的博客FIDGuY.com。当然，如果你对市场运作有更多了解的需求，可以参加我在centralbanking101.com上的课程。下周再见！