All right. Hello, hello, hello. Hey, this is Warren Redlich. I've been active on X, AKA Twitter, talking about what's been going on with Elon's compensation package, the litigation that was filed. I don't see that many people watching it, so I'm probably not going to dive too deeply into this until we get a few more viewers.
But there was a lawsuit that was filed by a class action law firm suing Tesla and Elon over his compensation package from 2018. There was a decision by a judge that just happened good afternoon, Brian. It's actually 1054 p.m. here in Thailand. So I've been getting a lot of questions on the X platform about the lawsuit and a lot of angry shareholders. So I wanted to address some questions.
So I think the first thing I want to talk about, I think the thing that shocks people the most is what do I think is likely to happen in terms of the legal fees? Good to see you, Matthew. Thank you. I think people are going to be shocked by this, but the value of the lawsuit is probably around 55. I think the theory is that Elon received compensation that was valued in the ballpark of $55 billion. And my ballpark estimate is that the attorney's legal fee is going to be somewhere around $5 billion. Now, this is shocking to people. Thank you, Matthew.
So would I lead a countersuit? So this is a question I'm going to just let me let me okay. So first of all, I'm going to tell you why I think the plaintiff attorney, the class action law from the file, the lawsuit is going to get somewhere in the ballpark of $5 billion in legal fees. I'll cover that in a minute. Brian asked a question, would you lead a countersuit? I've seen this question so much on X that we should sue the judge. We should sue the plaintiff who sued. We should sue the law firm that that brought the lawsuit.
Look, the reality is that that's not the way it works. The lawsuit was brought by a shareholder, like it or not, nine shares, nine thousand shares, one share, whatever. A shareholder brought a lawsuit against Tesla. The dispute was between the shareholder and Tesla and Elon and the board. Right, that's are we getting like you guys seeing me okay. I'm feeling seeing an interruption in my video, but breakfast pizza says as a lawyer, I'm disappointed in this ruling. So I'm not thrilled the ruling and I just did a video where I did like a two hour live stream on X and I posted it on YouTube, breaking down the details of what happened in the judge's decision. I disagree with the judge's decision.
Who would listen to this dude wearing a doe shirt? Elon should lose that lawsuit hands down. This is a pathetic discussion. This is from Aaron J. Aaron J is apparently a troll, but thank you for subscribing to my channel Aaron. So I'm wearing a Tesla doe shirt. I'm not wearing a doe shirt. So we don't get to sue the plaintiffs. We don't get to sue the class action law firm. We don't get to sue the judge. The judge is protected by absolute immunity, not qualified immunity, but absolute immunity. The that we don't sue the plaintiff. We don't sue the class action law firm. Their dispute was between them and Elon Tesla and the board. That's and that that dispute was resolved. We as shareholders effectively believe it or not, we were in theory represented by this lawyer who sued Elon, but we were not in we you don't get the opportunity to say, hey, you didn't represent my interests.
Now, I will say this. Ken says the magistrate was mistaken. So I disagree with a number of things that the judge did in her decision. Am I the only one who's seeing that my video is freezing up? Is it everybody else seeing my video freezing up? I don't know. Tell me if my video is freezing up because I'm seeing it freezing up. So I think the judge made the wrong decision for a bunch of reasons. I can dive into that, but I just want to address this first issue that no, we don't get to sue the judge. No, we don't get to sue the class action law firm. No, we don't get to sue Tor Netta, whatever name is the plaintiff. The dispute was between is between the plaintiff, the class action law firm and their named plaintiff and Tesla and Elon on the board. So, yeah, I guess it's just on my end. My my display is showing potential problems, but if you guys are seeing it, great, that's great. So that's the dispute and we don't get to sue. If OJ Simpson was found not guilty, you don't get to sue the judge or the jury for not convicting OJ Simpson. That's just the way the lawsuits work. The lawsuits are between the people who are involved and outsiders don't get to come in. Even though we're shareholders, we could argue, hey, they didn't really represent my interests. Blah, blah, blah. No, I'm getting I'm not getting dropped frames there. I'm just getting an image of stream is healthy, whatever. I'm getting him just but I'm seeing it on my screen, so I was making sure.
So, that's the first thing. Now, let's talk about what I think is likely to happen going forward. Okay, first thing is the law firm that represented the class action lawsuit is going to seek a fee and the judge specifically mentioned the attorney's fee at the end of the decision that there would be some final order that would include attorney's fees. And I would expect they're going to submit their proposed attorney's fee and Tesla's going to oppose the attorney's fee. And that's going to be the result. And there will be an attorney's fee. And my prediction is that the attorney's fee will be close to $5 billion. Why am I saying $5 billion? Because that's about a 10% of the amount of money that was effectively saved by the shareholders.
Now, I don't believe I have no idea why that just happened. Let's see if I can make that happen again. Yeah. So, I don't think that they actually saved the shareholders money. I think they actually cost the shareholders money, but you know, Elon was awarded $55 billion in the compensation package. They've now in theory saved the shareholders $55 billion. A 10% award would be in the ballpark of what I would expect to be awarded. Now, maybe they'll be 8%, maybe they'll be 12%, maybe they'll be 5%. I don't know. I have no idea why that I have no idea why those balloons appeared. That was really weird.
So, and I think this is shocking to a lot of people that the law firm would get that much. And you know, in a typical plaintiff's lawsuit, as I was a plaintiff's lawyer, I sued in car accident cases, and I would typically get a fee of one third. So, one third would be an awful lot in this situation, right? One third would be like, I don't know, $18 billion. So, I believe that, well, Matthew says shares aren't money. The value of Elon's compensation package turned out to be about $55 billion. Now, Elon not getting those options means that shareholders are not diluted in an amount that's valued by about $55 billion.
So, here's the problem with this. Okay. The real problem with this is, what's likely to happen next besides the attorney's fee? What's likely to happen is the board will meet. The board will discuss a compensation package to make up for what Elon lost. They will cross the T's and dot the I's that the judge claims were missed. That compensation package will go to shareholders for approval, and the shareholders will probably approve the compensation package, a retroactive compensation package. And Elon will probably get about the same as he got in the first place. And it will cost the shareholders about the same as it cost us in the first place. And so, the shareholders are out to $55 billion either way. And the plan, we're out an additional $5 billion in the fee to the plaintiff's lawyer, and we're out whatever Tesla spent on its own lawyers. So, the shareholders get screwed.
Zachi says he will take the case to Texas. The case is in Delaware. You don't get to take the case to Texas. Will Tesla move their incorporation state to Texas? It's possible. I'm not sure how much of a gain that is. I will say this. I want to be fair to Tesla and Tesla's lawyers. When you read the judge's decision, it appears that Tesla's lawyers did not make sure that Tesla crossed all the Ts and dotted all the eyes, and that's what blew up in Tesla's face. Now, I would look at this and say, you know, first of all, the judge interpreted some things wrongly, like saying that Ira Aaron Price is not independent, saying Robin Dennholm is not an independent director. I think that the judge's decisions there were terrible. But the reality is any state you go to, you're going to have complications. Delaware has generally been thought to be a state that has very stable and predictable laws regarding corporations, and that you know what you're going to get. If you go to a state that has less history of shareholder litigation, of litigation like this, you are less certain what results you're going to get. So, a lot of lawyers would prefer to have their corporate corporations in Delaware for these kind of lawsuits. And the fact that there's a bad one doesn't mean that on average you expect bad outcomes. Now, there is some indication, I think Alexander Mers, Tesla boomerama brought this up. And I think Elon has brought this up that Delaware has changed and is no longer as predictable as companies like, and that some companies are now deciding to incorporate in other states because Delaware is no longer treating companies the way they used to, and they're no longer as predictable.
So, Mark Plott says the judge is complicit. I don't want to say that the judge is politically motivated. What I would say is it's apparent the judge does not like Elon. The judge has, I think this is the second or third case the judge has handled with Elon. I don't, I'm not saying it was political or wasn't political, I'm just saying, I don't care whether it's political.
I read the decision and the interpretation that Ira Aaron Price from the compensation committee and Robin Denholm from the board of directors and forget the guy's first name but boss or something like that from the board of directors saying that they were not independent directors is borderline absurd. Ira Aaron Price that was basically a hit job on Ira Aaron Price. Now, there's a board member named Antonio Gracias. I think there's a fair argument that he's less independent. He's not fully independent. And I think when the Tesla put out its proxy for the shareholder vote and said that all the directors were independent that in particular when they said that Gracias was independent, I think they may have gone too far, but that's one of those like, okay, they didn't cross that T or dot that I, but when you look at the grand scheme of things, did shareholders know what we were voting on? I think I knew what I was voting on. I wasn't particularly concerned with whether the directors were independent enough. I think I knew understood what I was voting on. I think Jason DeBolt understood what he was voting on. I think Dave Lee understood what he was voting on. We're a significant portion of the shareholders misled by the proxy. I don't think so. I think we all understood that it was an outside compensation package if Tesla delivered outside's growth. And we felt that that was fair.
William asks, well, Mr. Musk, Musk leave Tesla. I don't think Elon is going to leave Tesla. I think there's a chance that if they are not able to compensate Elon adequately for his past work and in particular for his future work, that he might decide to no longer be CEO of Tesla, continue to be involved with product engineering, but put more time into other companies like SpaceX, Neuralink, Boring Company, and particularly XAI. And that that would, in the short run, if Elon made a decision like that, if Elon decided, you know what, I'm not going to be CEO anymore, because I don't think I've been adequately compensated for the amount of work I put in. And I have other things that I want to focus my time on. And I think Tesla will be fine if I take on a diminished role at Tesla. I think if Elon did that, then the stock price would fall 50% in a day. And thank you, Judge McCormick for screwing Tesla shareholders. If that's the result, I mean, I'm kind of hopeful that Elon stays on as CEO, but it is, it is an issue. Like, I think that Elon still wants to have control of Tesla, but I think Elon could decide, I think in particular, Elon could decide. But the development of artificial general intelligence is the most important thing that any of his companies will do. That XAI is the company that he has the most control over that does AI, and that he can recruit engineers from Tesla and elsewhere to join him at XAI. And he can focus his efforts on developing AGI at XAI while partnering with Tesla and supporting Tesla with GRC and supporting Tesla in other ways, and utilizing Tesla resources to help XAI. I think that a deal like that could be worked out, and that would mean that Elon would be less involved with Tesla day to day operations than he is now.
And I think that if that happened, if Elon said I'm not going to be CEO anymore, I'm going to be chief product officer and Drew Baglino is now the CEO. And I'm going to spend more time over at XAI, and I'm really going to focus on AGI. And some of the resources from Tesla are going to be refocused towards XAI. And this will be a deal between XAI and Tesla, and Tesla will benefit from it. But Tesla will end up not being the company that develops XAI. XAI becomes the company that develops XAI, and then Elon has more control over the development of AGI. And we don't get to own that. Now, we still get the Robo-TEXI network, we still get Optimus. And we still, you know, as shareholders long term, we still 10X or 50X or so on. But we, there's an upside cap to that because if we lose AGI, and AGI is potentially bigger even than Optimus, then we miss out on that. And it may be that, you know, Elon sells some more stock in Tesla and buys an insane amount of GPUs for XAI or they buy Dojo from Tesla. And let it use it. But if Elon ever steps down, it'll be over the weekend. The company that will make AGI is NVIDIA anyway. No, I don't.
So the problem is that it's not clear what's necessary to reach AGI. I don't know that large language models alone are sufficient to reach AGI. I don't know that diffusion models and other models in the abstract are going to get to AGI. I mean, you could argue that chat GPT for already is AGI if you want. But I think the combination of real world AI from Tesla and large language models and diffusion models and so on combined may get us a lot closer to AGI. And I think Tesla, Elon could focus the development of that at XAI over Tesla.
So the document said Tesla peers as Amazon and Apple and Google. Does that mean Tesla's a tech company? Yeah, there was a particular point in the decision where the judge was talking about and I think that when the board was deciding on Elon's compensation package, there was this comparison to Amazon, Apple and Google. I'm trying to remember what the specific number was. I think it was like the operational milestones and the ratio of EBITDA to revenue and Tesla's number in this compensation package was larger than Amazon's but smaller than Apple or Google. And it seemed like in line to me and I think the judge wasn't really clear about that but it sounded not good.
So by the way, thank you to Mark Plot and Mark Batachenik for moderating the chat. So I wanted to just be clear, there's a chat here. If you have questions, legal questions, please put them in the chat and I will talk about them. And I want to be clear, I'm not suggesting that the judge's decision was political. I think the judge was biased against Elon. I think the judge was biased against Tesla. I think that it's apparent. I guess I would put it this way. The way I like to put it is when I read the decision, sorry for those who don't know, I am technically still a lawyer. I am a retired lawyer in Florida. I'm still considered active lawyer in New York even though I'm not active. And I consider myself a retired lawyer. And I did not do securities class action work. I think I handled one case as a as a as a a law clerk to a judge and there was I helped the judge research and make a decision on a case that was vaguely in the ballpark of like mergers type securities lawsuit. Most of my I did a lot of civil litigation. I did a lot of criminal defense. I think I have a fair understanding of some of the legal issues here. I don't think the judge really explained her decision from a legal perspective as well as I would have liked. That's a long conversation. I'm used to judges decision saying in such and such a case, this happened in such and such a case, this happened. And I feel like there was less of that in the decision than I expected. Maybe that's normal for Delaware. I don't know.
And Matthew says NVIDIA has very little AI. They only make compute for it. I think NVIDIA makes AI hardware, but there's also a lot of software that NVIDIA makes that assists with operating the hardware. But I don't think they have the AI itself. It could be wrong.
So, he says, so Elon has 13% instead of 25%. Why is it not enough for him to stay as Tesla CEO? Well, I think Elon has about 50% of SpaceX and SpaceX is a $150 billion company and SpaceX has a lot of growth potential and SpaceX is focused on a goal that is more important to Elon than accelerating the transition to sustainable energy. SpaceX is focused on the goal of building a colony on Mars. So, maybe his time has better spent at SpaceX. This is a key distinction there.
The judge compared Elon to Bezos, Gates and Bezos, Gates and Zuckerberg who do not get compensation from their, they do not get like stock options or whatever from their work. But I think the key difference to understand is Zuckerberg, Gates and Bezos did not have some other companies that they were running that they could choose to spend their time at instead of the company that they were running. Elon's stake in SpaceX is pretty substantial. He has something like $60, $70, $80 billion in SpaceX stock. The value of boring company and Neuralink just started their human trials. I mean, the value of Neuralink as it scales is insane. I mean, I could easily see 100 million people a year getting a Neuralink. They have $10,000 a pop. That's a trillion dollars a year. And then every three years they upgrade to the newer hardware. I mean, people are getting new iPhones every year every two years. Are you going to get a new Neuralink every three years? I don't know.
Oh, Ken asked a good question. Ken asked this question. Did the board deceive shareholders in any way? The judge felt that the board in saying that the directors were independent and I would say in particular Antonio Graszias and Ira Aaron Price and Robin Denham. When the board did its proxy to the shareholders, there's a document sent up to Shail Holders to guide the vote saying that the compensation plan was developed and or reviewed by independent directors. I think the one thing that is closest to deceptive is describing Antonio Graszias as an independent. director. I think Antonio Graszias, his relationship with Elon may be too close to classify him as an independent director. Had they not said it at all, it might have been better. It probably would have been better still if they had disclosed Elon's relationship with the various board members. The problem with that thinking is if you take that, you know, apply it to every T and I, every T that might be crossed and every I that might be dotted, you end up with a proxy that's ridiculous. That's a thousand pages long and that's one of the problems.
Elon was worth the compensation. This was a hitchhope. You know, the judge seemed to, I mean, the judge is talking like this compensation package was you know, dramatically larger than any compensation package in history. I will note, by the way, that Peter Rawlinson's compensation package for Lucid at $300 million was far and away larger as a proportion that I believe significantly larger as a proportion of the value he delivered to Lucid as compared to Elon's compensation package and the value he delivered. So, thank you, Burnett Chang. I don't, I just want to be clear. Like, I am not a securities class action lawyer. I'm not a securities defense lawyer. This is not my area of law. I just, I'm capable of reading the decisions and understanding the language that the judges use.
Hopper says was the 73% shareholder vote mentioned or dismissed. The judge decided that the shareholders did not have a proper information and so therefore discounted the vote. The judge felt we were not properly informed. Ryan Forsberg says funds own 47% so the chances are replacing him are decent if we don't vote 25% would make it difficult. So, funds own 47% you know, Ron Barron's fund is going to vote in favor of a compensation package. Our contest is going to vote in favor of a compensation package. I'm sure there are other funds that are going to vote in favor of the compensation package and retail investors are going to vote in favor of it. My guess is that Elon is not going to vote you know, there's an interesting question will Elon vote his shares. I don't think he will. He didn't last time.
Zach, he forelands. So you sell your Tesla shares now. I'm not selling my Tesla shares. I'm holding till for the long haul and I still think Tesla's going to 10x to 50x. Robo taxis at 10x and and uh, uh, optimus is maybe a 20 or 50x. I mean, the, the, the value and don't want to be clear about this. I'm not happy about the result. I believe that in a long and that this is a short term minor impact on Tesla shareholders. Um, arguably it's a plus. So think about this for a second. We as shareholders just got back effectively $55 billion in Tesla stock. This is the biggest, this is Gary Black's best, best result, right? He got a $55 billion share by that. You can't for free. Right. So shareholders just got a windfall in theory. Now it's not a windfall because Tesla's going to read, you know, you know, reissue a compensation package that adequately compensates Elon basically the same. So we're going to lose the same amount of money we just gained and we lose the $5 billion or so fee that the class action lawyers get and we lose the money that we spent Tesla spent on lawyers.
So our books like Walters books considered shareholder disclosures in the public. I don't know who Walter is a Walter Isaacson. No, those are not shareholder disclosures. Can a new compensation package be put forward? So I don't know the answer this question Lawrence. My expectation is that either the board will do a compensation package that combines retroactive compensation for what was lost when this compensation package was thrown out plus a new compensation package going forward or they will do two separate packages and have the shareholders vote on the retroactive package and the future package separately. I'm not sure what the right course of action is and I'm sure they're going to pay lawyers lots of money and I will say this is another issue I have with the judge. The judge on the one hand said that Tesla's lawyers were very talented lawyers and then started talking about all the things they did they failed to prove. Either you think they're great lawyers or you think they aren't great lawyers. Apparently they failed to prove a bunch of things you thought they should approve so they weren't very good lawyers.
Can you explain your t-shirt? Sure. I met with the Thailand Passla Investors Club and they gave me the shirt. They didn't have a Tesla shirt that would fit me because I'm much larger than most Thai people and they don't really make my size. I'm a six feet tall, 183 centimeters and 95 kilos or 210 pounds or so and they just don't make shirts this large.
It's hard to get close here. Elon has a huge package, yes. Who gets to keep $5 billion in lawyer fees? That seems absurd. That's more money than the biggest natural lottery in the natural lottery in by more than 5x. Okay, so first of all, when a plaintiff files a class action lawsuit like this or any kind of lawsuit that's an uncertain outcome, there's a probability that they're going to win and there's a probability that they're going to lose. So the way I understand the compensation package's work is you figure out how much work did they put into this lawsuit and then you multiply by the probability of success and you say, all right, there was only a 20% chance they were going to win this, so you multiply the fees by five. That's a rough ballpark, probably incorrect description of how they do it.
Oh, so let me address this. Mark Potostik brings this question up to the Delaware Supreme Court. Sorry, just really quick about the fee. I think that contingency fees are typically 33% when the numbers are much smaller. I just posted on X and replied to somebody else that some article that said in the larger cases, you would see fees, it's like a billion dollar award, you would see fees of maybe 15%. So I think 10%, 8%, 5%, so maybe it's 3 billion, maybe it's 5 billion, these are ballpark guesses. I think we're going to see in that ballpark. If it's only a billion dollars, I'll be thrilled.
So Mark Potostik brings up to the Delaware Supreme Court. I don't think Tesla is going to appeal this decision. The reason I don't think they're going to appeal this decision is because the length of time it would take the appeal to be resolved is probably a year or longer and they want to resolve Elon's compensation package quicker than that. They want to resolve his not only his past compensation package, but his future compensation package and waiting over a year for a result from an appeal sport and then the probably of winning the appeal objectively, like I don't like the decision, I want to say that the that the appeals court would rule in our favor, but objectively, I would say, you know, probably less than one third of appeals win. So you could say, well, we should win this one. Yeah, but everybody who appeals thinks they're going to win. So your probability of winning the appeal is about 33%. And it's going to take you a year or two to get it resolved. Just fix it. Just fix the compensation package and move forward.
Now, can you do a retroactive compensation package? I think so. I think if you inform the shareholders and the shareholders vote for it fine. Yeah, I'm not selling any shares. Evan says, I don't know if you touched on it at all yet, but if you do not know, what would it entail to incorporate in a different state like Texas? I don't think it's very hard to reincorporate in Texas. I don't know that there's that much to be gained by it. I don't know if I mean, Elon knows more about this than I do when he talked about incorporating in Nevada or Texas. So I think there's a chance they will incorporate in Nevada or Texas. I think Delaware, there's been some criticism of Delaware up in the past, and there may be a decision to reincorporate in Texas. I don't know. I don't know enough about that. I suspect that whatever state you're in, there's class action lawsuits and judges who make decisions you won't like. Wherever you go, you're going to find judges who make decisions you don't like.
Do Elon's on exercise options get subtracted by dilution right away though? I think they do. I think that I think the options just go away. He doesn't have the options anymore. Just vanish. I don't think he exercised any of the options from this package. I could be wrong about that. I don't know if he exercised any options from this particular options package. I thought he had a five-year hold and I don't know if I don't know if we got through five years yet. I think the options that he exercised recently were from the previous compensation package, but I could be wrong.
But why does Tesla have to pay five billion dollars in lawyer fees when the lawyers did not try the case on behalf of Tesla? They tried the case on behalf of Tesla shareholders and the plaintiff's won and they get compensated. Part of the legal remedy for this case is that the defendants have to pay the plaintiff's lawyer fees. That's the class action contingency system we have in a lot of America.
What does this anything? What does any of this have to do with Travis and Taylor? Yeah, I don't know if Travis, Kelsey or Taylor Swift, own any Tesla stock or if they were unhappy with the compensation package. I personally think that Taylor Swift is overcompensated and I think Travis Kelsey's pay package is probably fair. But I think Taylor Swift might be overpaid and I think she should have to give some of her money back. I don't think that lawyer is about being a tax haven.
Have I traveled to Taiwan ever? I have not made it to Taiwan yet. I think there's a chance I will travel to Taiwan in the next couple years. Is there any chance Tesla will be divided under X? I don't think Tesla will be divided. I think there's a chance that Elon will, I think there's a small chance that Elon will decide not to be CEO of Tesla anymore. He will remain something like chief product officer. He will reduce his time commitment to Tesla. He will spend more time at XAI and he will recruit engineers from Tesla to come work at to at XAI. And AGI will be developed at XAI rather than at Tesla and there will be Tesla will still have a 10x to 50x or more growth as a result of Optimus and Robo Taxi. But the AGI upside that a lot of us have been thinking about might happen at Tesla might be more likely to happen at XAI where Elon would have the control he wants and he would have a much greater share of the ownership which will allow him to fund the Mars colony which is why I'm I got more excited about Elon funding the Mars colony. They have my own money. Would Elon take a cash and not stocks as pay and get a lump sum of say 10 billion dollars and like a billion or two a year going forward? I think Elon wants to be compensated in stock or stock options. I think he would because Elon believes that the company is going to grow and so the cost of the stock options to Tesla are lower than the value that he in on derives from it. I suppose they could pay him cash. That might make sense. I don't know. Mark Potashni says I don't feel like I won. Yeah. So in theory the shareholders won. I think in practical reality the shareholders lost. Now did we lose a lot? Well if we lose five billion dollars in the plain of legal fees and that's about what we lost then we lost about one percent of the value of Tesla and that's jump change. I mean it's a big deal but it's not that big of a deal and it is an incentive for more class action lawsuits against more corporations which is detrimental to the functioning of the US economy and I don't think that's a good thing. Matthew Herges says we might have just give him a salary. Now I don't think Elon wants a salary. I don't think he wants the cash. I think he wants stock. He wants control of the company. The judge was a warlone. You mean a vogon? I don't know what you mean. Evan says he didn't exercise any options from this package. I believe that but is correct. I think it was a five year hold but I don't think the five years was up before the lawsuit was filed. So I think any options he exercised were from the previous compensation package from 2012.
So I think I'm answering the questions. Am I answering the questions? Five billion is the cost of a factory should not be paying that in fees. Yeah I know we don't like that. Burnett Chang why not come Taiwan this time you're in Thailand already. I do expect like I expecting to live in Thailand or somewhere else in Asia long term and I expect to travel travel from Bangkok to other places like Thailand is cheap so I will probably travel to Taiwan at some point. I don't have a particular desire to travel to mainland China but I keep hearing a lot of good things about Taiwan. So I bet the Chinese food is good and I like Chinese food. So dim sum and chew my I'm sure there's a lot of good stuff. I got to talk to Tesla Joy I think she goes there a lot.
What if any okay so this comes up a lot. Mark Klott warned what if any does Elon have civil case against the judge. There's no lawsuit against the judge. Judges are protected by absolute immunity and any lawsuit against the plaintiff's law firm or the plaintiff himself. That's part of the lawsuit we just had. You don't have you don't sue over somebody who beat you in a lawsuit. That's not the way it works. I think the concept is called finality but I'm not sure. Do you believe that if they did appeal how long do you think that he would run for? I think an appeal would take more than a year and I think there's only a ballpark 33% chance of success maybe less than that. Since Elon is signaled he may live Tesla Tesla needs to protect itself and maybe play a hard ball with Elon over these compensation shares. If Tesla plays hard ball with Elon over compensation then Elon is more likely to leave. I think you have to ask yourself the question what is the goal. If the goal is to negotiate the most aggressive as aggressively as possible with Elon to minimize his compensation and Elon says well if you guys don't think I'm worth it I'll just stop working at Tesla. I don't think that's what you're going to want. I don't think I though I think the idea that the judge thinks that there should have been aggressive negotiations with Elon misunderstands the role that Elon plays in the company and how people feel about him and how shareholders feel about him. Hopper says I thought you were going to live in Japan I guess I missed a note. I was in Japan I did finally get approved for a visa shortly before. I had to leave Japan after 90 days and then like the 88th day they told me were approved for a visa and I had already booked my travel and I didn't have to start the visa right away so I decided to travel and then after I traveled I decided I think I'd rather I really do like Japan a lot but I think I'm more likely to find what I'm looking for in Thailand or Malaysia or the Philippines. And in particular for those who don't know I have a girlfriend now from Thailand and that's one of the fundamental things I was looking for and I think I found what I'm looking for although it's early yet we've only known each other for a month. Matthew heard just as I'd say give him salary and you can use that say 20 million. I don't know if a salary of 20 billion dollars would be acceptable to a judge either or the shareholders would approve that I don't know.
如果有的话,凯好,这是一个经常出现的问题。马克·克洛特警告说,如果有的话,埃隆能对法官提起民事诉讼吗?现在没有针对法官的诉讼。法官享有绝对豁免权,任何对原告律所或原告本人的诉讼也都无效,这是我们刚刚经历的一场诉讼的一部分。你不会对在诉讼中打败你的人提起诉讼,这不是工作方式。我想这个概念叫作终局性,但我不确定。你认为如果他们上诉的话,持续时间会有多长?我认为上诉需要一年以上的时间,而且成功的机会只有大概33%甚至更低。由于埃隆表示可能离开特斯拉,特斯拉需要保护自己,也许应该对埃隆在这些报酬股份上采取强硬态度。如果特斯拉对埃隆采取强硬态度以争取报酬,那么埃隆更有可能离开。我认为你必须问自己一个问题,那就是目标是什么。如果目标是在与埃隆谈判时尽可能地侵略性地减少他的报酬,而埃隆说:“如果你们认为我不值得,我就不再在特斯拉工作了。”我不认为这是你想要的。我不认为... though I think the idea that the judge thinks that there should have been aggressive negotiations with Elon misunderstands the role that Elon plays in the company and how people feel about him and how shareholders feel about him. Hopper says I thought you were going to live in Japan I guess I missed a note. I was in Japan I did finally get approved for a visa shortly before. I had to leave Japan after 90 days and then like the 88th day they told me were approved for a visa and I had already booked my travel and I didn't have to start the visa right away so I decided to travel and then after I traveled I decided I think I'd rather I really do like Japan a lot but I think I'm more likely to find what I'm looking for in Thailand or Malaysia or the Philippines. And in particular for those who don't know I have a girlfriend now from Thailand and that's one of the fundamental things I was looking for and I think I found what I'm looking for although it's early yet we've only known each other for a month. Matthew heard just as I'd say give him salary and you can use that say 20 million. I don't know if a salary of 20 billion dollars would be acceptable to a judge either or the shareholders would approve that I don't know.
Will the five billion dollars come from Tesla's cash pile as in one-time payment? Probably I think there's a good chance that they will have to pay somewhere in the ballpark of three to five billion. I mean I'm hoping that the judge holds their legal fees to more like a billion dollars but yeah I think Tesla's gonna have to pay that out of their cash pile.
No more Twitter like dealings are be required to step aside and just consult. So I think there's this sense that and then this is something the judge said that and I thought this was irrelevant. I think the word might be extraneous. The judges bringing up facts that are completely irrelevant to the decision like well after the pay package was awarded, Elon bought Twitter. So fucking what? Excuse my French. After the pay package was decided they had the funding secured tweet in the SEC litigation. So what has nothing to do with it and I think the purpose of the judge saying it was it show that the board doesn't control Elon and none of us thought that the board controlled Elon in the first place and none of us wants the board to control Elon. We want Elon to control Tesla and I'd just be clear there was a critical distinction that I think the judge missed or deliberately missed which is yes Elon controls the company and we want him to control the company because he's an awesome CEO when we love the way he controls the company but no he did not control the transaction. That is a major disagreement I have with the judge.
Brian Keck did Elon pay taxes on his compensation plan? I don't know I don't think so. I think the taxes it's possible Tesla paid some taxes on it. I think there were some taxes paid on the award of options but the real taxes come when he exercises the options.
Mark says corrupt. it. I don't want to say the judge is corrupt. I would go more. I think it's easier for me to accept that the judge is misguided or biased without being corrupt.
马克表示这是腐败的。我不想说法官是腐败的。我更倾向于认为法官可能是误导或偏见,而不是腐败。
Was any of the $55 million, $55 billion already claimed in text. I believe the value of the compensation package at the time it was awarded was somewhere in the ballpark of $2.3 billion so there may have been some taxes paid along the way as the tranches were awarded to Elon.
I see I don't see it as a Democratic hitch. I'm not saying that the judge isn't partisan in some way. I thought the judge the judge bringing up the Twitter transaction and this idea that Elon I think the judge has this perception that Elon was not faithful to Tesla because he was busy with Twitter and because he did the funding secured post tweet whatever. Yeah and I think that those were irrelevant extraneous in a sign of the judge demonstrating her bias against Elon and people can be biased against it. There are Republicans who are biased against Elon. It doesn't have to be Democrat bias. I'm not saying it's not Democrat bias. I'm just saying there's lots of people. I just had dinner. I went to a tie class tonight and one of the guys there is British just hates Elon. Like I told him like you know there's this thing happen. He says was it bad in his free lunch? Yeah he says oh that's great and he was just like hardened like hates Elon just absolutely hates Elon and I'm like well you know you have this view of Elon that's very negative. Is your view falsifiable? And he's like that sounds like a word Elon would use. Like no that's a word a scientist would use. So I think this guy is generally a nice guy and he's interesting but when it comes to Elon he's just a fucking moron. He's not he's not when if you're not open to the possibility that you're wrong then you're not giving like what does Elon say we're always wrong we should strive to be less wrong. Well is it possible that you're wrong? Right you know and basically the guys like no well if you think it's not possible that you're wrong then you might be an idiot on the subject that we're talking about doesn't mean he's an idiot overall but on that subject and he's a generally nice guy and pleasant and he's fascinating to learn tie with and so on but head up his ass when it comes to Elon.
No so what the stock that he sold to buy X was not from the options package that came from this award.
所以,他卖出来购买X的股票并不是来自这个奖励的期权套餐。
I don't mark plot is saying war and unseated judge I don't know what unseated judge means mark I don't know what you mean by unseated the judge is probably a point I don't know how judges get assigned to their job in Delaware I'm assuming that they get appointed by the governor or something like that I don't know that they're elected and there's not you know the judge didn't commit a crime I mean like I'd why would the judge be unseated the fact that some people don't like the decision every judge every time a judge makes a decision half the people involved don't like it right we don't the fact that we don't like the decision doesn't mean that the judge is inherently corrupt because if the judges ruled in our favor does that mean the other side would think that the judge is corrupt?
Will, since he says I do believe Elon is a great CEO but providing guidance should likely not be delivered by Elon that's a question um I think it's normal for a CEO to say this is what we're trying to achieve with the company um guidance was typically delivered by Zach Kirkhorn or the CFO rather than the CEO but I don't you know the company says this is what we think we're going to accomplish this year and this is what we're shooting for and I don't think guidance is guidance is like some Wall Street analyst term like I don't give a crap about Tesla's guidance for this is what we think we're going to achieve next year like in terms of like revenue earnings a bit uh profits whatever like tell me what you're gonna what you're trying to accomplish in terms of improving the tech and improving the product and improving um and achieving outsized goals.
I think we all live in our own bubble about how we perceive Musk only Elon Musk knows Elon Musk and Elon Musk might not even know Elon Musk that well does Walter Isaac send no Elon you just did a biography about him um it has to come from somewhere irrational why would you not like someone like Elon that much so so my theory on why people hate Elon it's funny I was talking it was two British guys I was talking to and one of them just absolutely hates Elon not open to any consideration the other guy was sitting next to me and I was explaining to one of the Thai guys who was sitting with us who speaks English really well I said some people in America and this is probably true in Thailand yet their information from certain media outlets and they trust their media outlets and they buy in large or satisfied with what their media outlet tells them and if their media outlet lies to them they don't know the media outlet is lying to them then they tend to trust the media outlet and even when they see Elon talks about this you see a media outlet talk about something that in issue that you actually know and understand and you see that they get it wrong and then you read their next article and you assume that they're right about the next article if you see that they're wrong about stuff you understand they're probably wrong about stuff you don't understand
David Villa says before this decision Elon fired a shot across Tesla's bow by threatened to leave over control of the company as a shareholder that did not sit right with me and Tesla needs to protect itself so David Villa when you say I'd love to see your answer to this when you say Tesla needs to protect itself what exactly do you mean do you think Tesla should fire Elon and hire a new CEO what does it mean to protect yourself if your concern is that Elon might leave how the hell do you protect yourself from Elon might leave you know we have the 13th amendment the United States you can't enslave him he can leave whenever he wants if Elon steps down to CEO what's your prediction for Tesla stock price per share in 2030 or 2032 so I don't I think um if Elon steps down as CEO tomorrow I think the stock price falls 50% in a day the long-term impact on Tesla stock price in say 2030 is relatively small but there's some upside from Elon being CEO let's say Tesla develops AGI there's some upside from Tesla developing AGI that we none of us is really modeled that you know it's already a katinex or 50x or more without AGI but with AGI maybe it's even more than that and so there's some upside we lose I don't think there's a whole lot of downside that we gain I don't think there's a lot of you know I the upside in 2030 or 2032 is so high that I'm not worried
Shamski says hey Warner you're still buying shares are done with increasing your stack I don't have free cash to allocate to buying stock I did acquire some cash last year and I did put half of it into buying stock and I held half or unanticipated and anticipated expenses moving forward with my new life living in Asia um and they appeal they can appeal I think the appeal would take too long to be productive and the probability of success is only about 33% and appeals in general um
the arrow says Elon must have some of the best business lawyers in the world with that said what do you think his best legal recall is or I think read option is so apparently his business lawyers aren't that great because they lost this case and if you read the judge decision she starts talks about a bunch of things that Tesla failed to prove which are things that Tesla's lawyers failed to prove so I don't know if his lawyers are that great um you know Elon's really smart but he may not be smart about hiring lawyers maybe he doesn't hire the best I don't know about his judgment about hiring lawyers I'm not saying I'd be better at hiring lawyers I'm just saying you know maybe his lawyer hiring isn't that great what is it saying a good lawyer knows the law a great lawyer knows the judge and the board of directors increase Elon's compensation more than 56 billion dollars billions off
I believe that the board here's what I think is going to happen the board of directors is going to meet they're going to spend three to six two to three months deciding on a compensation package to make up for what was lost a retroactive compensation package they will submit that to a shareholder vote if the shareholders vote yes they will probably cross the T's and dot the I's of the judge says that they missed um and submit that to a shareholder vote and if the shareholders vote yes it's good um Tesla needs to lock Elon down more and work criteria to prevent him leaving into the new compensate okay David the more you put in the more restrictions you put on Elon and how he has to do what what you want him to do with Tesla the more likely he is to leave do you want Elon to stay or do you want Elon to go if you want Elon to go try to restrict him okay you decide and I'm going to be very clear I want Elon to stay I want Elon spend as much time at Tesla as possible because I'm a Tesla shareholder I want to spend time at SpaceX because I'm rooting for SpaceX I want him involved in other things but I do not want Elon to go and if you are saying or let him leave well then you are not a typical Tesla shareholder we want him staying if you think that Tesla will be fine without Elon and everything's going to be okay and hunky dory and they'll be better off with John Scully a CEO or Gary Black or Ross Gerber is CEO me who the like David Villa you tell me this David Villa who's the replacement CEO for Elon you tell me who the replacement CEO is and I'll tell you how much stock how much Tesla stock falls the day after that CEO is announced and Tesla appeal while simultaneously transferring to Texas or would the appeal have to finish first I'm thinking appeal and transfer to Tesla simultaneously I just think the appeal takes too long I don't think there's any reason I don't think appeal is the right decision I think it takes too long and the probability success is too low the key line would have left Tesla by now he thought there was no future for him there right I think Elon could leave Tesla at any time he has he has a lot of options of places and when I say leave Tesla that doesn't mean he leaves Tesla completely it just means he leaves his CEO mark
you're saying recall process for the judge I don't know Delaware law I don't believe there's a process for moving the judge and I don't think we would succeed in that process if we try I don't think this is about the judge I think you're making this too much about the judge we have a legal system in America that allows class action lawsuits like this and most other countries don't have that's a decision that was made if you want to fix it we need to elect people who are going to change the class limited class action lawsuits like this and I don't think that Donald Trump's going to do that and I don't think Joe Biden's going to do that so I don't think we have any options to get there
Elon replied to warn on X when did he reply to me um oh I got to look at this now can you line reply to me did you line reply to me today uh he replied to me I haven't seen it yet I don't think he replied to me I don't know what you're talking about sorry when did he reply to me mark um um
lost Gerber lost Gerber I want he let us say but I want the stock price to drop to $100 please how many shares I need to hold a vote in this vote I think any shareholder can vote in the vote um very like is starting to get oh very glad is not starting to get Tesla he just fakes it better sometimes
Elon's comment regarding possible departure I didn't like either the answers to happen announced qualified backup that would calm shareholders and even long-term shareholder okay again tell me will anybody who thinks Elon you want Elon to leave or you want a backup plan tell me who you want to be the uh the announced qualified backup who is who the fuck is qualified to back up to be the backup CEO what do I think of Tom Joo as a potential successor after Elon I don't know enough about Tom Joo and either to you none of us knows that much about Tom Joo I think Drew Baglino is the best choice I think Kimball must be a great choice um I personally think Drew Baglino is the obvious successor as CEO of Tesla that's what I think but but if Elon if Elon left and Drew Baglino became CEO as much as I loved Drew stock would fall 50% in a day and I think Drew's fantastic I love Drew I think Drew Baglino is the best choice to replace Elon
David Villa did you answer my question you say a new CEO I don't think David Villa answered my question David Villa you're talking shit I asked you a simple question who's the replacement CEO stop bullshitting and saying a new CEO maybe better like stop bullshitting tell me who the new CEO is tell me who's a better CEO than Elon you're just this is total bullshit if you think there's a better CEO than Elon tell me who it is Grimes yeah Grimes gonna be the next CEO fucking a it's ridiculous and did Elon know about the ruling beforehand and asking for 25% control reason I think that probably that um look I guessed that the court was going to rule against the pay package because it took so long ruling in favor of the pay package doesn't take as long as ruling against it so um it's probable that Elon's lawyer said hey this is taking long enough we think we're gonna lose but I don't think that anything do with Elon asking for 25% control and I don't think Elon was serious about 25% I think 25% might have been a negotiating position and I you know honestly like I love Elon but you sold stock to buy X this is one of the consequences that you own less of a of a Tesla same judge made Elon by Twitter that is true it's the same judge who complained that Elon bought Twitter is the judge that forced Elon to buy Twitter I love it um
do I still sell the Drew Bagelino fan club t-shirt I don't even know if it's still on the on the shop
David Villa I'm not qualified to picky CEO and I don't even know all the options available but there are people at Tesla who are David you claim to be qualified to say that Elon should leave the CEO if you think you're qualified to say he should lead to CEO then step up to the fucking plate and tell me who you think should replace him if you can't name a replacement why do you think somebody else can name a replacement that the people at Tesla don't want a new CEO you think there are people at Tesla who know who's good to be seen those people want Elon to be the fucking CEO so if you think Elon shouldn't be CEO you come up and tell me
我还在卖Drew Bagelino粉丝俱乐部的T恤吗?我甚至不知道它是否还在商店里。
David Villa,我没有资格挑剔的CEO,我甚至不知道所有的选择,但特斯拉有人知道。David,你声称有资格说埃隆应该离开CEO职位,如果你认为有资格说他应该担任首席执行官,那就勇敢站出来告诉我你认为谁应该接替他。如果你不能提出替换者的名字,为什么你认为其他人可以提出替换者?特斯拉的员工不希望有新的CEO,你觉得特斯拉的员工谁知道谁适合接任,这些人都希望埃隆继续担任首席执行官。所以,如果你认为埃隆不应该担任CEO,你就站出来告诉我。
goble says sorry but Kimball is not very sorry he's a super nice guy but not a good CEO or entrepreneur um I think Kimball knows the company better than anybody else and he gets along with everybody and as a CEO not running the tech but managing people I think he's actually pretty good I don't think he's my he's not my choice my choice would be Drew Baglino
but did the plaintiff gain any money out of this I believe that the class action law firm is going to get like five billion dollars in legal fees maybe it's a billion maybe it's three billion it's a big chunk of money
oh Peter Rawlinson that's right they should appoint Peter Rawlinson as CEO a new and better CEO to Musk is like saying a new better quarterback to Tom Brady no no Elon is Tom Brady is great but Elon you know Aaron Rodgers there's plenty of quarterbacks who are almost as good as Tom Brady there's no CEOs who are almost as good as Elon.
Drew Baglino should be the new CEO if Elon doesn't want it I think Baglino is the clear choice I think people who don't follow Tesla closely enough don't realize the extent to which Drew is familiar with the entire company yeah just everybody who says Tesla needs a new CEO will never stop up at the plate and say who should be the new CEO you're all full of shit you think that we with that Tesla needs a new CEO tell me who the fuck it should be
and this judge like like do you think this judge is doing favors to Tesla shareholders Jesus Christ that this is the thing like the judge is supposed to be act the the plaintiff's lawyers the class action lawyers are supposedly acting in the interests of the shareholders so the coppers as the dude had nine shares the dude is a representative of the class of shareholders who were negatively affected by the pay package supposedly right so the question is did this benefit their shareholders did the did this lawsuit benefit Tesla shareholders did the judges defendant decision benefit Tesla shareholders now on paper the Tesla shareholders get back fifty five billion dollars worth of Tesla stock it's it's the biggest buyback in Tesla history
what about Lutz oh Bob Lutz or Jeff Lutz Jeff Lutz will be okay feeling like Elon needs to go his greed is out of control i've made all my money in Tesla but i'm done i think he's gone crazy
okay four seven two water here's another ass hat who says that Elon needs to go tell me who replaces him tell me who's going to replace Elon that's going to help
William PMCD says with regrets the profanity does not improve your argument yeah you're probably correct you know sometimes they just get angry and it comes out it's not like it's a conscious thing
Viva Swami Tesla CEO you mean Vivek mean the guy who just ran for Rama Swami or whatever the guy ran for president god no give Elon whatever he wants he's the heart of Tesla and generates amazing ideas and products yeah i mean i think the thing people don't realize like look at this what what was Tesla's mission what is Tesla stated mission it's accelerate the transition to sustainable energy now Elon has been talking that Tesla is now is not a car company it's an AI and robotics company primarily well AI and robotics is not really accelerating the transition to sustainable energy more and to have a CEO who's able to pivot to AI and robotics and heading towards AGI away from not to say that they're not pursuing robo taxi not to say that they're not pursuing accelerating the transition to sustainable energy but recognizing that optimists might be a 5x uh five times more valuable than anything else Tesla's doing and saying we got to focus on this is important if Elon disappears
bobbles are should be CEO and we would get you a phone i don't even know who bobbles are is you said yourself Tesla will easily 10 to 20x with FSD and robo taxi alone another CEO can do this i'm not an e-line okay depends on who the other CEO is john scully wouldn't get us 10x to 20x with FSD and robo taxi Gary black would probably shut the FSD and robo taxi program down
who's who's the CEO he has seemed erratic and unsteady these last people he has always been erratic and unsteady this is not new he was always erratic the guy took all the money he got from paypal and betted on a rocket company and an electric car company this was insanity hmm four seven two waters is do you think he should be given more shares to 25% so we need to dilute our shares by 10% more can you answer that please thank you i think that a compensation package and i've said this publicly before a compensation package that gives e-line a lot of stock based on i had a specific post on this that he gets this many i think it's 20 million shares if they achieve a two trillion dollar market cap
30 million more shares if they achieve a four trillion dollar market cap 40 million additional shares if they achieved a six trillion dollar market cap 50 million additional shares if they achieve an eight trillion dollar market cap and 60 million shares if they achieve an 10 trillion dollar market cap but that would be 200 million shares and that would get them close to the 25 percent I don't think you could get some all the way to 25 percent but you know if he delivers us a 10 trillion dollar market cap i'm fine with him getting all that And if you're not, then you're not a long-term shareholder
Hope you're sharing some of the air conditioning. So I figured out the air conditioning a little bit. Still annoying, but it's right here. It doesn't always work the way I want it to. That's the issue. Okay. And the board of directors have a special meeting at the meeting. They come with the special similar package and sent out for a special blow to all shareholders at the same time. Reincorporate in Texas.
I believe that the board of directors will meet. They will probably meet several times over a two to three month period is my guess. They will figure out a replacement compensation package retroactive to make up for what Elon lost by the judge's decision. And that will go to a shareholder vote. And I think that's unrelated to whether they reincorporated in Texas. Those are two separate things. Do I regret my previous predictions about Tesla given its stock performance in the last three years? Not everyone has a 10 year horizon. How do you handle the situation regarding your shares? I regret my previous short-term predictions and I don't make short-term predictions anymore. I don't regret my predictions for 2030 and beyond. I'm still fairly confident that Tesla is going to 10x or more by 2030. I think Robotaxi by 2030 is extremely likely. And the value that Robotaxi generates for Tesla is easily a 10x. And I think right now optimists is likely to be significant by 2030. And that's probably a 20 to 50x.
What do we make of the FSD beta delay only Omar has it still? I don't think that's a delay. I think they're taking their time and getting it right and that's fine. Yeah, by the way, thank you Mark Plot for pumping me on X Twitter, Patreon, locals, etc. The place I would most recommend following me is on X. It's WR4NYgov. I would appreciate anybody who subscribes to me on X.
I don't really do a whole lot for subscribers on X. I do early access to my YouTube videos on X for subscribers on Patreon for supporters on the daily live for supporters and on as YouTube channel members as well.
I think Elon was stay as Tesla CEO if he gets 25% of shares. I don't think he needs the 25% right away. I think if the next compensation package gets in close to I don't think he needs all the way to 25%. I think what he said sounded like he would be okay with like 22%. I think that's a fair split.
Mark Potopsics is about Warren's bedtime almost midnight. I still have a lot of energy. I think I drank coffee too late in the day. Without Elon Tesla will not be Tesla anymore and I will sell my shares. I mean it might make sense. I don't like making short term predictions. If Elon left the company and the stock fell 50% and then you sold, I would say that's not a good decision. If you were able to sell before he left the company before the stock fell and then the stock falls 50% and then you buy, that's probably a good decision if you can pull off that timing.
JB Strowbell. I don't think that JB. I don't hate the idea of JB Strowbell as CEO but JB is busy running redwood materials. I don't know how you make that work. I don't think JB is a guy who can run two companies at once. I think Baglinos there and Baglinos the obvious choice.
Honestly, Elon is not gaining any friends by getting involved in politics. Politics got involved in Elon. Before Elon got involved in politics, politics got involved in Elon. Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and AOC were bashing Elon for years. There was some California politician who was bashing Elon. Politics interfered with Tesla's operations during COVID and Joe Biden had an EV summit and didn't invite Tesla to an EV summit. Joe Biden did a whole campaign and pretended that Elon didn't exist and that General Motors was leading the way in electric vehicles. So don't tell me that Elon got involved in politics. Politics got involved in Elon.
Brad says shares will crash without Elon. I think that's very likely. When do you think Tesla will be in a position to pay dividends? Tesla could pay dividends now. I don't think they're going to. Yeah, I agree with you Hugo. That is funny.
Vivek is CEO. Mark Potashnik, Auto CEO. There will be a bloodbath at every company in Vegas and Tesla's price war. Yeah, I mean, you know, they have to lower prices to compete. A shoke? A shoke maybe? I don't think a shoke is the right CEO choice. Ronesh is gone.
Why should Elon leave the company as so much easier to continue AI robotics with Tesla and find a solution regarding his comp? Elon could leave the company and move to X... Not leave the company. Leave a CEO. Stay as chief product officers. Spend more time at XAI and focus on developing AGI at XAI and continue to spend more time at SpaceX and NURLINK's got a lot of shit happening, too. NURLINK's a big deal. I mean, Ryan Tanaka thinks that NURLINK may be part of the solution for AGI.
Does AOC still have a Tesla? I don't know. With all the frustrations that Elon has to go with Tesla being public, do you think this could be motivation for Elon on the board to go private with Tesla? I don't think it's feasible to go private with Tesla. I don't think that's an option. I think that the amount of money that we're required to buy out all the shareholders is just too high.
Alan says Tesla won't pay dividends currently, but surely at some point they will generate so much cash they will give it back to us. First of all, don't call me Shirley. Second of all, I think that when the RoboTaxi network goes live and Tesla starts generating insane amounts of cash, then they'll probably start giving dividends then.
Dojo could be a future Tesla cloud and supercomputer service. Absolutely. But you know, a new CEO might cancel the Dojo program and then Tesla and Elon moves the Dojo program over to XAI. Why is Tesla founding other AI companies? Why is an XAI owned by Tesla and same with NURLINK he's going to get rich without us? Well, because Elon has the freedom to invest his money however he wants and if you don't like it, you can found other AI companies with your money. He's just better at it than you are. He's not a slave to Tesla. He's free to do what he wants with his money. And if you think that Tesla should try to control Elon and stop him from doing these things, you are forcing you are telling Elon to leave Tesla and he will be happy to do so if that's the way that he's treated by the Tesla board and that's why the Tesla board doesn't treat him that way.
Will he stay as chief engineer if he does not get the twenty part? I think he stays as something like chief product officer. Does Elon have to be CEO to have twenty five percent control of Tesla? No, I don't think so.
Can you see a way Elon could spin off optimists and walk from Tesla?
I think it's I don't think he would spin off optimists. I think optimists fits within Tesla because of the manufacturing. confidence within Tesla. I don't think there's another company that Elon has that does manufacturing in the same way so I don't think that makes sense. You don't need to answer all shitty questions. Elon needs to stay with Tesla. Well, no, but this is a reality that there are people who've been saying that you know, Tesla should explore a new CEO and there is a serious risk that Elon does not get compensated adequately. He decides to leave. And there's the judges very clearly saying that the board should have tried to control him more. The Barry Glax and lost Gerbers of the world have been saying that the board should be controlling Elon. You know, Ross Gerber had Elon in a Twitter space and Elon said, you know, call them on it and Ross chickened out. He actually talks big when he had the chance to actually call Elon out on something he shut up and said, I love you, Elon. It's bullshitter. Good option to up to vote to the shareholders so they can decide with lawyers. Oh, was this what is it the stock markets open and the stock is, you know, not moved that much. I'm surprised the stock. I think the stock should be up. If you believe that this judge is ruling is that Elon loses his options package. Then Tesla just gained $55 billion in value by reduced dilution. So the stock should be up like 10%. If what the judge did was good for shareholders, this stock should be up like 10%. I think the fact that the market did not react in a positive way says, gee, it looks like what the judge did wasn't in the interest of the shareholders. Daryl says, because optimus is such a big part of Tesla will be big part of Tesla. Wouldn't it be practical to have X AI a part of Tesla and optimus? I believe that Elon's company is generally cooperate. So the things that X AI does will probably benefit Tesla. We will probably see grok just like grok is on on X. We will probably see grok and Tesla cars and grok will probably be incorporated in optimus. And you know, engineers work across Elon's companies and that's always been the way it is. But as a shareholder, I would love it if X AI was part of Tesla. But I think Elon's view is he wanted to start up an AI company. You know, Tesla is not really in the business of large language models. And there's other kinds of things that X AI is going to do like scientific research. It's not really part of Tesla's mission. So I think it makes sense for X AI to be separate from Tesla and also it gives Elon control over an arm of AI. That's really important. I think Elon's new comp plan should make him have to hold his shares and hold to his word of being the last one out. He used shares for X, which is great for freedom of speech, but. The compensation package that he was that he was just overturned required him to hold the shares for five years. The options for five years he couldn't exercise for five years. So he, you know, he, you can't require him to hold shares that he already has. Like, look, when you try to restrict if you design a package that restricts Elon's freedom, he's you're saying you want him to leave as CEO. Like decide what you want. If you want to, if you think that the board gets to control Elon's behavior outside of Tesla in particular, then you are asking to kick, you are basically saying you want to kick Elon out as CEO because he's not going to run the company. He's not going to devote his full passion to the company if the board and the shareholders aren't going to support him. Just give Elon a salary 10 million a year to pay him back 10 million a year is nothing. I think you mean 10 billion a year. It would be cool to run into you and today sometime I'm here for a month. I was in Da Nang and I'm already gone. Buckaroo. I'm in time back in Thailand. And I don't think I'm going back to Da Nang anytime soon. Elon grew Tesla to what it is now. He can make Tesla 100 X from here. People need to understand that. Absolutely.
Do you think Elon will pursue his city to city 700 mile per hour hyperloop concept and bring it to fruition?
Yes, I think it's going to be more than 700 miles an hour and I think it's going to take 10 years before we see that in any significant way. Although there's talk about a San Antonio to Austin hyperloop soon.
I hate his fake timelines. Okay, there is no model to. So four seven to water. You are demonstrating your not paying attention. The stock is up like eight X over four years.
And there is no model to there's a next generation vehicle platform. Maybe it will end up like Steve Job Story. Leave and then return later. Let's hope it doesn't end up like the second Steve Job Story. Leave and die.
Redwood materials is a four billion dollar valuation. Tesla should just buy it and bring JB back. I think JB wants to run Redwood materials as his own company and that's how he makes his billions become successful and. And he has he's pursuing a different angle on what Tesla is doing.
I think JB is just fine where he is. I don't hate JB as CEO. I'm just saying I don't think these necessarily the one BMW CFO sales growth is mostly electric as combustion engine tipping point passes.
I think the thing people don't understand about internal combustion engines versus EVs is EVs are improving at an accelerating rate and internal combustion engines have hit an asymptote. There's just very little improvement to be had an internal combustion engines.
Thank you FX worldwide. I bought in 2010 I'm up 300%. When is NGV coming next generation vehicle is coming. They're hoping to start production in late 2025. I am of the view that they are sand bagging us and that the next generation vehicle will come sooner than that. But I could be wrong.
I think the bigger issue with the next generation vehicles what's the price point going to be. I've heard anywhere from 25 to 29,000 and I think those price points aren't low enough. I think if the next generation vehicle isn't closer to $20,000 it's not going to sell you on the volume necessary to achieve what they're trying to achieve with vehicles. It doesn't mean they don't achieve robo tax. He doesn't mean they don't achieve optimist. It just means that.
The predator on the last one out thing was always hyperbole anyone with more than two brain cells understands that there's no such thing as a last one out shareholder unless the company goes bankrupt.
Look, he wants to loans 13% of the company owns more a greater share of value of Tesla than I think any CEO anywhere. I want the vote for shareholders what they want today and if they agree with his lawyers from Delaware. I'm not sure what you're saying there Carmen. You need to write that clearer.
How do you think Tesla's board will be broken up or will the board be changed at all curious okay. So this is an interesting question.
你认为特斯拉的董事会将如何被分化,或者董事会是否会有任何变化好奇。这是一个有趣的问题。
I think the judges analysis of the boards lack of independence was deeply flawed. I think that is a reason to move the company to Texas because you can't get you're probably going to be back with this judge. And this judges interpretation of what director independence is is just flat out wrong.
Aaron Price is an independent director. I think there's an argument that Antonio Grazies is not independent, but Robin Denham is an independent director and. And Ira Aaron Price is an independent director. The only director that I saw you know, you want to Campbell are not independent. We can agree on that. Everybody else except maybe Antonio Grazies is the closest call. Ira Aaron Price is as independent as you get. I think it's absurd to say he's not an independent director saying Robin Denham is not an independent director is just absurd. The same judge ruled that Robin Denham was an independent director back in the funding secured trial. And now and that's the same time it's like it made absolutely no sense.
Next generation vehicle the FSD only but my understanding is that there will be a version of the next generation vehicle that will have a steering wheel and pedals and there will be a version that won't have a steering wheel and pedals. And I think there may be more versions. There may be multiple steering wheel versions is probably one or two robo taxi versions will see.
Eventually internal combustion engine vehicle manufacturers lose volume buying power versus their cost structure. There's there's all sorts of ways an internal combustion engine vehicle manufacturers die and be you know be where the maybe the thing that kills them before Tesla does.
I don't know enough about Texas law, Texas securities law, Texas finance law, Texas corporate law to say whether Texas would be better than Delaware. That's a question that some other lawyer would be better position to answer.
Mitchell walrich says Robin Denham filed the cell of massive number of shares recently well. Was it a massive percentage of her holdings. of the company or was it just a massive number of shares because she has a she has an even more massive number of shares that she's not selling.
Harry while Tesla's van should come next 2025 so Drew bag lino when talking about the 46 80 said that they need the cells for Tesla's future vehicle program so there's an interesting question what was he talking about. I think there's a van coming the van come may come sooner rather than later.
Is this the same judge that made Elon by X Twitter yes I believe it is. It's not fit you must acquit. Where is the Toyota solid state yeah Toyota solid state battery. It's right around the corner it's coming any day now. 2028 at the latest. Or later.
Prior to production when do you think Elon will show the text the next generation prototype. The theory is that Tesla will not announce the next generation vehicle details until right before they're ready to deliver. That's my best guess and I could be wrong. It's possible that they'll do a presentation on it and they'll take.
I don't think they need deposits. To sell the vehicle they got deposits in the past and it was like a zero interest loan. At this point I think that keeping it secret what it is until they're ready to deliver is probably more valuable than telling people here's what's coming. I really don't like waiting till the second half of 2025 I think that really slows. Growth on the vehicle side of the business. So that that's a really frustrating thing for me all right.
So I think the questions have slowed down and it's after midnight here in Thailand and I think we've gone long enough. So I want to thank in particular Mark Potatchnick and Mark. We're moderating the chat. I want to thank everybody for watching. And I think it's a good time to wrap up so I hope this was helpful to people and I will talk to you all again soon. Thanks very much. Bye bye.