Elon Loses $55B: The Silver Lining / New Model Y Timeline / GM Earnings ⚡️
发布时间 2024-01-31 02:29:41 来源
Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis. First up today we have progress at Giga Mexico. The surrounding infrastructure, mostly the roads and highways, are currently being expanded. This coming from a press release from Nuevo Leone where they talk about excavation underway for expanding these lanes so that there will be three lanes in either direction. Once completed, the motor grater will begin the fine tuning and the body of the work. This work is proceeding according to the schedule planned by the construction companies. This three lane road expansion will occupy the entire front of the Tesla land. And for the bridge that's set to cross this highway, still in the preliminary stages.
欢迎来到《电气化》，我是您的主持人迪伦·卢米斯。今天首先报道的是墨西哥吉加厂的进展。周围的基础设施，主要是道路和高速公路，目前正在进行扩建。来自新莱昂的一份新闻稿称，他们正在进行扩建这些车道的挖掘工作，以使每个方向都有三个车道。一旦完成，摩托平地机将开始进行微调和整体工作。这项工作正在按照建筑公司计划的时间表进行。这个三车道的道路扩建将占据特斯拉土地的整个前方。至于将要横跨这条高速公路的桥梁，目前还处于初步阶段。
If there were a rupture around Taiwan, it would be catastrophic to both the Chinese and the American economy. And by catastrophic, I think you're looking at great depression circumstances. If there were some sort of, a war, some sort of attack. If we lost access to Taiwanese semiconductors, how many weeks until Tesla stops making cars? Or GM? Or Ford? Or Boeing stops making planes? Those chips are used in every part of our economy. Estimates range from a GDP hit of between 8 and 10 percent if we lost access to Taiwanese semiconductors. So it's really important as a matter of national economic security that we're able to maintain peace in that region of the world.
如果台湾发生断裂，对中国和美国经济都将造成灾难性后果。我说的灾难性是指可能出现类似大萧条的情况。如果发生一场战争，一次袭击之类的事件，如果我们失去对台湾半导体的供应，那特斯拉需要多少周才停止生产汽车？或者通用汽车？或者福特？或者波音停止生产飞机？这些芯片在我们经济的每个部门都有使用。有人估计，如果我们失去对台湾半导体的供应，国内生产总值可能下降8%至10%。因此，国家经济安全的角度来看，我们能够保持该地区和平至关重要。
What about American competitiveness with China? You touched on that briefly. Elon Musk said last week, the only thing stopping Chinese EV makers is protectionism, basically trade barriers. The UID dethron Tesla in the fourth quarter is the top EV seller. And then just this morning, GM came out, reported a steep decline in operating income in part due to losses from its EV unit. What do you make of the state of American competitiveness with China, especially as it pertains to some of our key industries, EVs, chips, etc?
关于美国与中国的竞争力如何？你扼要提及了这个问题。埃隆·马斯克上周表示，阻碍中国电动汽车制造商的唯一因素是保护主义，也就是贸易壁垒。中国的一个电动汽车制造商在第四季度超越了特斯拉，成为销量最高的电动汽车销售商。而今天早上，通用汽车公布运营收益大幅下滑，部分原因是由于其电动汽车部门的亏损。对于美国在一些关键产业，如电动汽车、芯片等方面与中国的竞争状态，你如何看待？
So solar, EVs, consumer electronics, these are all areas in which the Chinese have done extraordinary well from a competitive perspective. And watching BYD surpass Tesla in global sales was a bit of a heartbreaking moment. But we often lose sight of the fact that the Chinese economy represents 1.4 billion people. So they have a huge advantage when it comes to simple economies of scale, combined with a strong education system that produces four times as many STEM graduates. We've got a real competitor in China. And Elon's right that the West has to grapple with the issue, Europe in particular, California, trying to achieve a very, very different future in terms of how we consume energy in an EV-led future in particular. California wants no internal combustion cars in the foreseeable future. Are we going to make that happen by buying Chinese vehicles? Because that's the most cost effective way to do so for American consumers. What do you think? I think that's a really hard pill to swallow.
太阳能、电动汽车和消费电子等领域是中国在竞争角度取得了非凡成就的领域。看到比亚迪超过特斯拉成为全球销量第一是令人心碎的瞬间。但我们常常忽视了中国经济代表了14亿人口这一事实。所以他们在简单的规模经济方面拥有巨大优势，再加上一个培养出四倍于我们的STEM毕业生的强大教育体系。我们在中国面临着一个真正的竞争对手。埃隆说西方必须应对这个问题，特别是欧洲和加利福尼亚，试图在消费能源方面实现非常非常不同的未来，特别是在电动汽车主导的未来。加利福尼亚希望在可预见的未来没有内燃机车辆。我们是不是要通过购买中国车辆来实现这一目标？因为这对美国消费者来说是最具成本效益的方式。你觉得呢？我认为这是一个非常难以接受的现实。
So what would you suggest from a policy standpoint? From a policy perspective, how fast do we need to push the drive towards EVs? How much do we need to accelerate that at a moment in time where the US companies, your fords and GMs are still trying to catch up with Tesla? And Tesla has one great asset. Elon is a phenomenal entrepreneur. And I think that don't lose sight of the fact that Tesla makes a great car, but there's an opportunity at Tesla to create the software platform for the future of automobiles. The self-driving car, good chance will first happen at Tesla.
从政策角度来看，你会提出什么建议呢？在政策的视角下，我们需要以多快的速度推动向电动汽车的转变？特斯拉目前正是美国企业（例如福特和通用）追赶的对象，我们需要在这个时刻加快推进吗？而特斯拉有一个巨大的优势，伊隆·马斯克是一位出色的企业家。不要忽视特斯拉生产出了一款优秀的汽车，但特斯拉还有机会成为未来汽车软件平台的先驱。无人驾驶汽车很可能会首先在特斯拉实现。
From car news, China, we got the weekly Tesla insurance data coming in at 12,800. But if you keep reading, they also say the new generation of Tesla Model Y, code named Uniper the refresh, is rumored to start production in the Shanghai factory in April. It's just a rumor, but everything we've really heard so far had Project Juniper sometime in the second half of 2024. So if it were to start production in April in Shanghai, could that mean a quarter three or quarter four launch in North America? It certainly would make some sense if it follows the Model 3 Plus arc.
从中国的汽车新闻中，我们得到了每周特斯拉保险数据为12,800。但是如果你继续阅读，他们还说特斯拉全新一代的Model Y，代号为Uniper the refresh，据传将在四月份在上海工厂开始生产。这只是一个谣言，但到目前为止我们听到的关于Project Juniper的消息是2024年下半年。所以如果它在四月份在上海开始生产，那是否意味着在北美地区将在第三季度或第四季度推出呢？如果它遵循Model 3 Plus的模式，这确实有一定道理。
In case you missed it, it is now official. The Model Y was the best selling car by unit volume of any kind in the world in 2023. Plugging that data into the table, if you wanted to compare it to the same weekend quarter four, that number was 10,800. So through the first four weeks of quarter one, we're now 7,700 units ahead of the record Q4 pace. Tesla would have to average about 15.3,000 deliveries each week over the final nine weeks of the quarter to set yet another new quarterly record. The result this week was indeed the highest fourth week of a quarter ever. When it comes to the Model 3 and Y breakdown over the past few weeks, the main sources have not been reporting these figures. So if any of you actually have a reliable source for those numbers, please let me know.
如果你错过了，现在已经正式宣布了。Model Y车型是2023年全球销量最高的汽车，不论是哪一种类型。将这个数据填入表格，如果你想将其与同一周末的第四季度进行比较，那个数字是10,800辆。因此，在第一季度的前四周，我们现在领先7,700辆的历史季度第四季度的速度。特斯拉必须在季度的最后九个星期每周平均交付约15.3千辆汽车，才能创造另一个季度交付新记录。本周的结果确实是有史以来第四周最高的。就过去几周的Model 3和Y销售情况而言，主要的信息源没有报告这些数据。所以，如果你们中有任何人知道一个可靠的数据来源，请告诉我。
From Roland, Tesla, Norway, Spain, and the Netherlands had their best January and their best first month of the quarter ever, Sweden likely to join the list by the end of the month. There was at least one, if not a few ships that did not arrive in time for Q4 delivery, so that could be boosting these figures, but either way, very strong start.
罗兰、特斯拉、挪威、西班牙和荷兰在一月份取得了有史以来最佳的一月销售业绩，而瑞典很可能也会在月底之前加入这个榜单。有至少一艘，甚至可能有几艘船只没有按时交付，可能会对这些数据产生一定推动作用，但无论如何，这是一个非常强劲的开端。
We got the California New Car Dealers Association report for quarter four. This data matters because California is leading the EV push when it comes to US adoption. For 2023, full be EV market share hit 21.4% but something to keep an eye on that be EV market share did actually tail off in quarter four.
我们收到了加利福尼亚新车经销商协会第四季度的报告。这份数据很重要，因为在美国的电动汽车普及方面，加利福尼亚一直处于领先地位。根据报告显示，到2023年，全电动汽车市场份额将达到21.4%，但需要注意的是，第四季度的全电动汽车市场份额确实有所下降。
Looking at the top 15 best selling electrified models for the year, the Model Y and the Model 3 dominated. The Model Y did 132.6,000 registrations, the Model 3 at 82.7,000. The closest competitor in third place was the Chevy Bolt with 19,000 registrations. Then for the overall market, the top selling light trucks, which includes the Tesla Model Y, the Model Y outsold the RAV4 and Honda CRV combined with the Toyota Camry in second place a full 30,000 units behind the Model 3. And to anybody trying to paint this as a negative for Tesla, their market share going from 71% in 2022 to 60.5% in 2023 simply does not understand mathematics. I've walked through that math many times before but the simple takeaway as other be EV players enter the market, Tesla's be EV share is naturally going to come down.
从今年销售最好的15款电动车型来看，Model Y和Model 3占据了主导地位。Model Y有132.6万辆注册，Model 3有82.7万辆注册。而排名第三的最接近竞争对手是雪佛兰Bolt，有1.9万辆注册。在整个市场上，最畅销的轻型卡车，包括特斯拉的Model Y，Model Y的销量超过了RAV4和本田CRV加起来，而第二名的丰田凯美瑞则比Model 3落后整整3万辆。而对于那些试图将这视为特斯拉的负面消息的人来说，他们将特斯拉的市场份额从2022年的71％下降到2023年的60.5％，他们显然不了解数学。我以前已经多次进行过这种数学运算，但简单来说，随着其他纯电动车制造商进入市场，特斯拉在纯电动车市场的份额自然会下降。
How can you convince a large percentage of Americans who live in middle America to go electric? Well, I mean, you know, the Ford F-150 is a great example of a big car that has gone electric and is very exciting. So, but people have to make their own decision. I get it. Nobody's going to force anybody to make these decisions. I honestly think that the price as the price of the electric vehicle comes down and it has dropped 23% year over year, 23% reduction, which means that they're on par now a new EV and a new gas powered vehicle and the price of operating the car and not having to go to the gas station and being able to fill it up for much less and more conveniently. Honestly, I think it's going to sell itself. And I think you'll see, I mean, this is why, I mean, you know, Tesla, for example, their uptake has been amazing. They have accounted for a huge percentage of the increase in electric vehicle sales. It's because they've offered a lower, not a low, but a lower cost model, an entry more entry level model. And people just love driving the car. You're going to see this throughout all of these models.
如何说服居住在中部美国的大部分美国人使用电动汽车呢？嗯，我的意思是，你知道的，福特F-150是一个很好的例子，它是一辆大型的电动车，而且非常令人兴奋。但是，人们必须自己做决定，我理解。没有人会强迫别人做这些决定。我真的认为，随着电动车价格的下降，它已经每年下降23%，这意味着现在电动车和燃油车的价格相当了，而且使用电动车的成本也更低，不需要去加油站，更加方便。老实说，我认为电动车本身就会畅销。而且我认为你会看到，比如特斯拉，他们的销量一直非常惊人。他们的成功在很大程度上是因为他们推出了一个价格较低的入门级车型。人们非常喜欢驾驶这些车。你将会在所有的车型中看到这个趋势。
Do you think this is going to be a common topic on the campaign trial talking about electric vehicles in this push? I mean, it could be. But here's the interesting part is that all of those factories that I was talking about regarding electric building electric vehicles and electric vehicle batteries, 60% of them are going into red states. So, you know, people in red states love their EVs too and are working at these factories. So I think, you know, again, I just think that over time, the political nonsense about it will die down and people's experience will speak much more loudly. I think it's important, you know, for for those who care about global warming, climate change, and doing their part, you know, EVs are a solution for them. For those who care about cost, EVs are a solution for them. For those who care about power, EVs are a solution for them. I mean, people just have to get used to it and understand it. And I think, you know, you'll see this uptake continue to snowball.
您认为在竞选活动中谈论电动汽车是否会成为一个常见的话题呢？我是说，可能会。但有趣的是，我刚才提到的所有建造电动汽车和电动车电池的工厂中，60%都位于红色州。所以，您知道的，在红色州，人们也喜欢他们的电动汽车，并在这些工厂工作。所以我认为，随着时间的推移，对政治的胡闹会消失，人们的经验将更有力量。我认为对于关心全球变暖、气候变化和尽自己的一份力的人来说，电动汽车是一个解决方案。对于关心成本的人来说，电动汽车也是一个解决方案。对于关心动力的人来说，电动汽车也是一个解决方案。我是说，人们只需要适应并了解它。我认为，您会看到这种趋势继续蔓延。
First and foremost, you'll love to see the current administration actually acknowledge Tesla and its success. Second, I think she's right that in the long run, EVs won't be weaponized politically as much. I'm just not sure that shift is going to start to happen this year ahead of the election. It's very unfortunate. I just think we all need to be prepared for it in the months ahead.
首先，您会喜欢看到现任政府真正承认特斯拉及其成功。其次，我认为她说得对，从长远来看，电动车不会再像现在一样被政治化。我只是不确定这种转变是否会在选举之前开始发生，这一点非常不幸。我只是认为我们所有人都需要为接下来的几个月做好准备。
The what's inside channel just uploaded a video getting the new model three plus trading in a model S, but they did a range test of sorts. Just want to share his quick summary. If you remember at the beginning, it said 333 miles is estimated what we could get with most Teslas that I have the S and the X and even the Y. We'd probably get I'm just going to tell you this like 280 270 miles range. This is what we got in here. 327. Are you kidding me? Six miles worse than what it said at the beginning? That's incredible. That really is incredible. I know it's just one test, but it would be great to start seeing more Teslas getting real world range closer to the estimate.
What's inside频道刚刚上传了一个视频，展示了换购Model S的新款Model 3，并进行了一次续航测试。只想分享一下他的快速总结。如果你还记得开头的话，他说大多数特斯拉车型（包括S、X和Y）的续航里程大约是333英里。我们可能只能达到280到270英里的续航里程。事实上，我们这次测试得到的续航里程是327英里。你开玩笑吧？比一开始说的差了6英里？这真是令人难以置信。我知道这只是一个测试，但如果我们能看到更多的特斯拉在实际使用中能够接近预估的续航里程，那将是很棒的。
We have a new world's largest battery energy storage project in California. This one 3.287 gigawatt hours. This is paired with a solar farm and the batteries are provided by three different companies LG Samsung and BYD. This site has now reached substantial completion and is fully online. Also of note, part of this project is on the Edwards Air Force base and it's the largest public private collaboration in the US Department of Defense history.
我们在加利福尼亚州有一个全球最大的电池储能项目。这个项目具有3.287千兆瓦时的容量。它与一个太阳能发电厂配套，并由三家不同的公司提供电池，分别是LG、三星和比亚迪。该项目现已基本完工，已经完全投入使用。此外，值得注意的是，该项目的一部分位于爱德华兹空军基地，被视为美国国防部历史上最大的公私合作项目。
LG energy is now predicting 30% growth for battery storage in 2024 globally, but driven by the United States. They also just said production of their LFP cells in that factory in Arizona will be a major growth engine. Their dual purpose gigafactory in Arizona will make both cylindrical cells that are going to be 4680s presumably for Tesla, as well as 16 gigawatt hours of production for battery energy storage via LFP cells. Here's the proof that LG is emphasizing the production of 46 millimeter diameter cells and their recent announcement indicates a strengthening collaboration between LG and its major long time Tesla. LG plans to start mass production of the 4680 battery by the end of 2025. So you can see that's a Tesla plan right?
LG能源目前预测全球2024年电池储存市场将增长30%，但增长的主要推动力来自美国。他们还表示，位于亚利桑那州的工厂生产的LFP电池将成为主要增长引擎。亚利桑那州的双功能超级工厂将生产圆柱形电池，其中预计一部分将用于特斯拉的4680电池，并且还将生产16千兆瓦时的LFP电池用于储能系统。以下是LG强调生产46毫米直径电池的证据，最近的宣布表明LG与其长期合作伙伴特斯拉之间的合作关系正在加强。LG计划在2025年底开始大规模生产4680电池。所以你可以看出这是特斯拉的计划，对吧？
That's my everyday car. The Tesla plan. They're fabulous. You like Tesla's? Wonderful car. Yeah. Is it Elon Musk is a genius? Yes. Genius. Yeah. You've actually had him you went to meet him in here. You know something he's a a lot of geniuses are dreamers. He's a manufacturer. I mean he's an engineer.
那是我的日常用车。特斯拉计划。它们真棒。你喜欢特斯拉吗？绝妙的车。是啊。埃隆·马斯克是个天才吗？是的。天才。是的。你实际上见过他，你曾在这里会见过他。你知道吗，他是一个制造者，许多天才都是梦想家，但他是一个制造商，也是一名工程师。
He came to he ended the Scraj in 2007 with his prototype electric roadster. And I know that's pretty cool. And he says you know Jay I'm going to build charging stations all up and down the coast. It'll be free and you can pull it and charge it. I'm going yeah right there like that'll happen. But he was smart enough to build the infrastructure at the same time. Yeah everybody else who builds electric car. Where can I charge it? Oh you can charge anywhere. Just plug it. Well no you can't. I mean he's the first one to really get the thing. So no he he's a genius.
他在2007年推出了他的原型电动公路车，从而结束了Scraj的历史。我知道这真是很酷。他说，你知道Jay，我要在整个海岸线上建充电站，而且是免费的，你可以随时停下来充电。我当时说，哦，像这样的事情肯定不会发生。但是他聪明到同时建设了基础设施。其他人建造电动汽车时，每个人都问，哪里可以充电？哦，你可以随便充。其实不能，我是说他是第一个真正解决这个问题的人。所以，他是个天才。
A Reddit user shared a video of the new functionality of the adaptive headlights on the model 3 plus. So far this is only in Europe and I'm not sure when Tesla will push an update for older cars and other regions. If you watched closely it didn't look perfect but it's certainly a start. Here we have it. Bloomberg was reporting that Elon's 2018 CEO compensation plan that trial has finally reached verdict. This is indeed the one we've been waiting for. Tesla's board rather has been waiting for so that they can construct Elon's next compensation plan. Unfortunately though for Elon the judge has ruled in favor of the plaintiff. Bloomberg said Tesla's board will have to start over and come up with a new proposal. We also have to keep in the back of our mind. Elon may appeal or challenge this ruling but he's in quite the predicament. If he goes that route that's only going to further delay his next compensation plan because the board can't figure that out and hammer out the details until this case is actually settled. It should go without saying but this court case is actually worth spending time to look into because it's going to have an outsize impact on Elon's future at Tesla specifically when it comes to his compensation. The 2018 CEO Comp plan with a 55.8 billion dollar maximum value was the largest potential compensation opportunity ever observed in public markets by multiple orders of magnitude. 250 times larger than the contemporaneous median peer comp plan and over 33 times larger than the plan's closest comparison which was Elon's prior plan.
一位Reddit用户分享了一段关于Model 3 Plus自适应头灯新功能的视频。目前这仅在欧洲有，我不确定特斯拉何时会为旧车和其他地区推送更新。如果你仔细观察，你会发现这看起来并不完美，但至少是一个开始。布隆伯格报道称，埃隆2018年的首席执行官薪酬计划的审判最终已经达成裁决。这确实是我们一直等待的结果。特斯拉的董事会一直在等待这一刻，以便他们可以制定埃隆的下一个薪酬计划。不幸的是，法官已经裁定支持原告。布隆伯格表示，特斯拉的董事会将不得不重新开始，并制定新的提案。我们还需要铭记在心的是，埃隆可能会上诉或挑战这一裁决，但他陷入了困境。如果他选择这条路，将进一步延迟他的下一个薪酬计划，因为在此案件解决之前，董事会无法找到解决方案并确定细节。毋庸置疑，这个法庭案件值得花时间去研究，因为它将对埃隆在特斯拉的未来产生重大影响，特别是在他的薪酬方面。2018年首席执行官薪酬计划的最大价值为558亿美元，是公开市场上观察到的潜在薪酬机会中最大的，相对于同行的薪酬计划，会高出多个数量级，是埃隆以前计划的33倍多。
What's unique in this case is that the defendants, Elon and the board actually bore the burden of proof proving that the plan was fair. Part of the reason that's the case because Elon enjoyed thick ties with the directors that were tasked with negotiating on behalf of Tesla and Elon dominated the process that led to the board approval of his comp plan. This whole case may actually have shifted on a technicality. Delaware law allows defendants to shift the burden of proof under the entire fairness standard where the transaction was approved by a fully informed vote of the majority of the minority stockholders. That's exactly how Tesla conditioned this plan. But the defendants were unable to prove that the stockholder vote was fully informed because the proxy statement inaccurately described key directors as independent and misleadingly omitted details about the process.
在这个案例中独特的是，被告埃隆和董事会实际上承担了证明这个计划是公平的责任。其原因之一是埃隆与被委托代表特斯拉进行谈判的董事们有着密切的关系，并且埃隆主导了导致董事会批准他的报酬计划的过程。这整个案件实际上可能会因为一个技术性细节而转变。特拉华州法律允许被告在整体公平标准下转移举证责任，前提是交易经由少数股东中大多数投票全面知情的赞同得到批准。特斯拉对这个计划就是这样进行条件设定的。但被告未能证明股东投票是全面知情的，因为代理表决声明错误地将关键董事描述为独立，并隐藏了有关流程的细节。
Translation, in the judge's eyes, Tesla did not provide enough accurate information to the shareholders to actually have an informed vote on this compensation plan. Which resulted in the defendants, Elon and the board having the unenviable task of proving the fairness of the largest potential comp plan in the history of public markets.
在法官眼中，特斯拉并没有向股东提供足够准确的信息，以便能够就这个补偿计划进行明智投票。这导致被告方，即埃隆和董事会，不得不面临证明这个史上最大潜在补偿计划的公平性这一艰巨任务。
The two main factors that were considered throughout this trial were process and price, process being how did the board, Elon and Tesla actually come up with this plan and price was the actual compensation amount, reasonable effectively.
在整个审判中，考虑的两个主要因素是流程和价格。流程指的是董事会、埃隆和特斯拉是如何制定这个计划的，而价格则是实际的补偿金额，合理有效。
Without going too far into the detail, what you need to know is that Elon proposed a grant size and a structure that a few ones down the road he was actually fine lowering. But throughout the whole process, it was a cooperative venture between Elon and the board. The board members did not take a position on the other side of Elon. And of course, the plaintiff then pointed out Elon's deep ties with specific board members that were involved in the process.
不详细展开讲，你需要知道的是，埃隆提出了一个补助规模和结构，而后来他实际上对降低规模也表示了认可。但整个过程中，埃隆和董事会是合作的。董事会成员并没有站在埃隆对立面。当然，原告还指出埃隆与参与这个过程的某些特定董事会成员有紧密的关系。
Part of the board and Tesla's defense was that they're comparing what Tesla gave with this plan to what Tesla got, arguing the structure of this compensation plan was all upside for the stockholders. This plan offered Elon the ability to increase his Tesla ownership by roughly 6% from 21.9% to at most 28.3%. That's if and only if Tesla's market cap went from 50 billion to 650 billion while also hitting operational milestones.
董事会和特斯拉的辩护部分是，他们正在将特斯拉提出的计划与他们所得到的进行比较，认为这个补偿计划对股东来说都是利好。这个计划给了埃隆将他在特斯拉的持股比例从21.9%增加约6%的能力，最多达到28.3%。前提是特斯拉的市值从500亿美元增长到6500亿美元，并且还要达到运营里程碑。
The judge said this 6% for $600 billion argument has a lot of appeal, but that quickly fades when you remember that Elon owned 21.9% of Tesla before this compensation plan. Saying this ownership stake gave Elon every incentive to push Tesla to levels of transformative growth, Elon stood to gain over $10 billion for every $50 billion in market capitalization increase without this plan. Elon had no intention of leaving Tesla and he made that clear at the outset of the process and throughout this litigation.
法官表示，这个针对6000亿美元的6%比例的主张非常有吸引力，但当你记起埃隆在制定这个补偿计划之前拥有21.9%的特斯拉股权时，这种吸引力很快就消失了。这个股权使得埃隆有充分的动力推动特斯拉实现转型性的增长，如果没有这个计划，埃隆每增加500亿美元的市值就能获得超过100亿美元的收益。埃隆从一开始就明确表示他无意离开特斯拉，并在整个诉讼过程中再次表明了这一立场。
Simply put, was the plan even necessary for Tesla to retain Elon and achieve its goals? Then we have the defendants arguing that the milestones Elon needed to meet were ambitious and hard to achieve, but they failed to prove that point.
简单来说，为了留住马斯克并实现其目标，特斯拉是否真的需要制定这个计划呢？然后我们有被告辩称，马斯克需要达到的里程碑是雄心勃勃且难以实现的，但他们未能证明这一点。
The principal defect with the defendants give get argument which was their fair price argument as a whole, is it does not address the $55.8 billion question. Given Elon's pre-existing equity stake, was the grant within the range of reasonable approaches to achieve the board's purported goals? Or at a minimum, could the board have accomplished its goals with less and would Elon have taken it?
被告方所提出的主要缺陷在于他们所谓的合理价格论述，是因为它未解答一项重大问题，即558亿美元的问题。考虑到埃隆之前所持股权，授予他的股票是否在合理达成董事会所谋求目标的范围内？或者至少，董事会是否可以以更少的股份实现其目标，并且埃隆是否会接受这样的安排？
This was an interesting argument from the defense. Tesla's ambitious goals forced it to the point of an existential crisis in 2017 and Elon was critical to Tesla's future. Musk was on the verge of walking away and was distracted by his other ventures. Elon required an added incentive to stay at the helm and he's uniquely motivated by highly ambitious goals. As the board member said, the board looked to fashion milestones that would give Elon the dopamine hits he needed. There we have conflicting testimony here saying that Elon was on the verge of walking away, but many other times he was going to be a lifer at Tesla.
这是来自辩护方有趣的论点。特斯拉雄心勃勃的目标使其陷入了2017年的存在危机，埃隆对特斯拉的未来非常重要。马斯克正处于放弃的边缘，被他的其他事业所分心。埃隆需要额外的激励才能继续留任，他独特地受到高度雄心勃勃的目标的驱动。正如董事会成员所说，董事会试图制定里程碑，以满足埃隆所需的多巴胺反应。在这里，我们有相互矛盾的证词，一方说埃隆正处于放弃的边缘，但在很多其他时候他又决心一生都服务于特斯拉。
The counter argument from the plaintiff when it comes to these lofty goals, if transformative growth is the goal, why set milestones at the time of the grant that were 70% likely to be achieved? All you need to know from Tesla's own internal projections, the first three milestones were actually probable to be achieved by Tesla, so not really the stretch goals that the defense was arguing. They also said further, how can one conclude Elon was on the verge of walking away from a leadership role at Tesla when Elon made it clear he would not quit Tesla and is heavily invested in Tesla, both financially and emotionally, and views Tesla as part of his family.
原告在谈到这些崇高目标时的反驳是，如果转型增长是目标，为什么在授予时设定的里程碑有70%的可能性能够实现？从特斯拉自己的内部预测来看，前三个里程碑实际上是特斯拉能够实现的，因此并不像辩护方所争论的那样困难。他们还进一步表示，当特斯拉明确表示埃隆不会辞去特斯拉的职位，并且在经济和情感上都对特斯拉投入了很大的努力，并将特斯拉视为自己家庭的一部分，怎么能得出埃隆即将放弃领导角色的结论呢？
It also hurt the defense's case here that the compensation plan had no guardrails or requirements for Elon actually investing certain amounts of time into Tesla. So if encouraging Elon to prioritize Tesla over his other ventures was so important, why not put those guardrails in place?
这也使辩方的辩词受到了打击，因为这一补偿计划在埃隆投资特斯拉的时间上没有任何限制或要求。因此，如果鼓励埃隆优先考虑特斯拉而不是其他事业如此重要，为什么不设置这些限制呢？
The takeaway? There is simply no evidence that the added incentive provided by a grant of this magnitude was necessary much less fair. Here's the bit where the defendants concede three operational milestones aligned with internal projections. As a remedy, the plaintiff only seeks rescission, arguing further at a minimum. The court should rescind the options for the first three tranches given the lack of disclosure regarding the probability of achievement.
结论是什么？根本没有证据证明这种巨额补贴所提供的额外激励是必要的，更不用说公平性了。以下是被告承认与内部预测相一致的三个运营里程碑。作为一项救济措施，原告仅寻求撤销，进一步辩称至少应该根据未披露的实现可能性来撤销前三期期权。
And one of the plaintiffs arguments here held up, so the court orders rescission of the grant as a remedy for the defendant's fiduciary breaches. The remedy of rescission restores the party's substantially to the position which they occupied before making the contract. The grant or the award is not too complex to unscramble and the entire grant sits unexercised and undisturbed.
在这里，原告的一个主张得到了支持，因此法庭下令撤销授权作为对被告违反信托义务的救济措施。撤销的救济措施可以将当事人的地位恢复到他们签订合同前的实质性位置。授权或奖励并不复杂，还未被执行或干扰。
The defendants argue that rescission is a harsh consequence that would leave Elon uncompensated. Then the judge goes back to saying Elon's pre-existing equity stake provided him tens of billions of dollars for his efforts. Which is quite honestly the same, Elon should work for free argument because he already has so much money.
被告辩称撤销（合同）将导致埃隆无法得到补偿，这是不公平的后果。然而法官重新提到埃隆已有的股权为他的努力带来了数十亿美元。说实话，这就像说埃隆应该无偿工作一样，因为他已经有了那么多钱。
In case you're thinking to yourself, wait a second, didn't the shareholders vote to approve this plan? The answer is yes, but in this court trial, that really didn't matter because in the judge's eyes again, the board, Elon and Tesla, did not provide enough accurate information for that vote to effectively carry weight. Basically because of some legalese.
如果你自己在想，等一下，股东们不是投票批准了这个计划吗？答案是肯定的，但在这次法庭审判中，这个并不重要，因为在法官看来，董事会、埃隆和特斯拉没有提供足够准确的信息，使得这次投票的有效性被质疑。基本上是因为一些法律术语的缘故。
The two main things working against Elon here, the first one had to do with the process. The judge argued that Elon had too much control over the company and over the board with his long standing relationships. And there wasn't really that much pushback from the board at all. And to the price or the size of this plan was just not warranted because Elon already had substantial incentive with the 21% of Tesla that he already owned.
埃隆面临的两个主要问题，第一个与流程有关。法官认为埃隆对公司和董事会的控制过于强大，因为他与他们有着长期的关系，而且董事会对此几乎没有任何反对意见。而且，根据这个计划的价格或规模，这样的计划并不值得，因为埃隆已经拥有了21%的特斯拉股份，已经有了足够的动力。
And yes, as it stands now based on the court documents, Elon's entire $55 billion compensation plan is now rescinded or avoided. Going forward, if Elon does not challenge this ruling, his next compensation plan is most likely going to have to have wildly ambitious targets, the first few tranches of which are not like internal projection type of tranches. That's part of what got them into trouble with this prior plan.
是的，根据目前的法庭文件，埃隆整个550亿美元的薪酬计划现已被撤销或避免。未来，如果埃隆不对这一裁决提出挑战，他下一个薪酬计划很可能会设定非常雄心勃勃的目标，其中最初几个阶段不是像内部预测那种类型的阶段。这正是之前计划导致他们陷入麻烦的部分原因。
The second thing would be the board actually having much more say, much more negotiation power, much more leverage in the actual back and forth between the board and Elon when it comes to figuring out the numbers, not just Elon setting the numbers and then the board saying okay.
第二件事将是董事会实际上拥有更多发言权、更多谈判力和更多对于董事会和埃隆之间的实际数字问题来回协商的筹码，而不仅仅是埃隆设定数字然后董事会说好的。
And third, when it comes to the shareholder vote for this upcoming compensation plan, the board and Elon need to be much more forthcoming sharing accurate information with the shareholders. So they're actually informed on Elon's relationship with each board member and the process of how they actually came up with the numbers in the plan.
第三点是，在即将举行的股东投票中，董事会和埃隆需要更加坦诚地与股东分享准确的信息，以便他们了解埃隆与每位董事成员的关系，以及他们如何制定该计划的具体过程和数字依据。
With Elon being worth around $200 billion, losing this part of his compensation would be about 25% of his net worth. Elon's response slash advice never incorporate your company in the state of Delaware. I do think it's worth mentioning at the end of this document said, Something tells me this is not the end of the story.
随着埃隆身家约为2000亿美元，失去这部分薪酬将占到他净资产的大约25%。埃隆的回应兼建议是永远不要将自己的公司注册在特拉华州。我认为在这份文件的结尾值得提及的是：直觉告诉我这并非故事的终结。
The Model Y drove record breaking performance for their IZEV program in 2023. Tesla registered nearly as many qualifying deliveries as the combined total of its three closest competitors. Tesla delivered 43.6,000 vehicles that were eligible for this rebate program last year. That figure nearly quadrupled Tesla's total from 2022. In second place was Hyundai with 16.7,000 deliveries.
2023年的“零排放车辆计划”中，Model Y取得了屡创纪录的出色表现。特斯拉几乎与其三个最近竞争对手的总量相当。去年特斯拉交付了43.6万辆符合该回扣计划要求的车辆，这一数字几乎是该公司2022年交付量的四倍。而以第二名的是现代汽车，交付了16.7万辆。
Here we have BYD claiming it wants to work with Tesla to grow the EV market. The head of BYD's public relations said I think this is an inevitable process, but it may take another two to three years. In the end, many brands that are not able to compete in the market will be eliminated. He said Tesla is our very respected industry peer. It's also our client. I think this market is very large. It's not that we must surpass them or they must surpass us. Instead BYD and Tesla together, or more new energy vehicle brands together, we need to think about how to increase the new energy vehicle cake.
在这里，比亚迪声称希望与特斯拉合作推动电动车市场的发展。比亚迪公关负责人表示，我认为这是一个不可避免的过程，但可能需要再两到三年的时间。最终，许多无法在市场竞争中立足的品牌将被淘汰。他说特斯拉是我们非常尊敬的行业同行，也是我们的客户。我认为这个市场非常庞大，不是我们必须超越他们或者他们必须超越我们，而是比亚迪和特斯拉共同，或者更多新能源汽车品牌共同，我们需要思考如何扩大新能源汽车市场的规模。
Ford is supplying more than 1000 F-150 Lightning and Mustang Mach E vehicles to EcoLab to replace their water treatment firms gas powered vehicles in California.
福特将向EcoLab供应超过1000辆F-150 Lightning和Mustang Mach E轿车，以取代他们在加利福尼亚州的水处理公司所使用的汽油动力车辆。
Here are the highlights from GM's Q4 earnings. Mary Bar said the pace of EV growth has slowed, creating uncertainty, but many third party forecasts have US EV deliveries rising from 7% in 2023 to at least 10% in 2024. Demand for GM's EVs globally has been weaker than expected. I do want to say right now is not a great time to read into GM's financial metrics declining quarter over quarter and insinuating it's the end. There were many one-time items that are impacting GM's financials for Q3 and Q4, one of which is the UAW strikes.
以下是通用汽车第四季度收益的亮点。玛丽·巴尔表示，电动汽车增长速度放缓，产生了不确定性，但许多第三方预测显示美国电动汽车交付量将从2023年的7%上升至2024年的至少10%。全球对通用电动汽车的需求比预期要弱。我想现在不是一个好时机去研究通用汽车每个季度下降的财务指标，并暗示这是末日的开始。影响通用汽车财务状况的有许多一次性项目，其中之一就是美国汽车工人工会的罢工。
GM expects their US EV portfolio will become variable profit positive in the second half of 2024. I just want to make sure everybody knows this does not mean gross profitability, they're different things.
通用汽车公司预计其在美国的电动车型组合将在2024年下半年实现可变利润的正转。我只是想确保大家知道这并不意味着总利润率，它们是不同的概念。
Variable profit is also known as contribution margin. It's just the revenue that remains after actually subtracting for variable costs. Variable profit is a per item profit metric where gross margin is basically company-wide gross profit. Your variable costs are different than your cost of goods sold because your cost is made up of variable costs but also your fixed costs. Simply put, it's much easier to achieve variable profitability than it is gross margin profitability.
变动利润也被称为贡献利润。它是在实际减去可变成本后剩下的收入。变动利润是一种每件商品的盈利指标，而毛利润基本上是公司整体的毛利润。你的可变成本与你的销售成本不同，因为你的成本是由可变成本和固定成本组成的。简单来说，实现可变利润比实现毛利率利润更容易。
GM's global market share in 2017 was 13.3%. It's down to 8.5% at the end of last year, which was down from 9.2% at the end of 2022.
2017年，通用汽车在全球市场上的占有率为13.3%。到去年年底，占有率降至8.5%，而去年年底的占有率又下降至2022年末的9.2%。
Bara said cruise is already implementing changes from these investigations and they need to focus on ensuring communities understand the mission of cruise, a problem Tesla doesn't really need to tackle. Cruise is working on new financial targets and a timeline to relaunch. They do plan to spend $1 billion less this year on the cruise line.
巴拉表示，巡航已经开始执行这些调查的变革，并且需要专注于确保社区理解巡航的使命，这是特斯拉并不需要应对的问题。巡航正在制定新的财务目标和重新启动的时间表。他们计划今年在巡航线上节省10亿美元的开支。
Perfect timing after we just talked about the dealer pushback yesterday, GM is now planning to sell plug-in hybrids in North America. This is to help GM comply with more stringent tailpipe emission standards. They'll bring them to the market at a time where GM needs them from a compliance perspective.
正当我们昨天刚讨论过经销商对抗时，通用汽车现在计划在北美销售插电混动车型。这是为了帮助通用汽车符合更严格的尾气排放标准。他们将在通用汽车需要从合规角度出发的时候将其引入市场。
This right here is what we call corporate speak. The real reason we just talked about yesterday, GM needs to keep its dealers happy. No details were given on the hybrid models or when. The BEV launches are still a priority for GM this year.
这就是我们所谓的企业用语。我们昨天讨论的真正原因是，通用汽车需要保持经销商的满意度。关于混合动力车型的细节以及发布时间没有提供。通用汽车今年仍将把纯电动车的推出视为优先事项。
GM again postponed their investor day that was supposed to be in March, the first time around it was supposed to be November of last year. This is to showcase their software and digital strategy.
GM再次推迟了原计划在三月举行的投资者日活动，此前该活动本该在去年十一月举行。这次活动是为了展示他们的软件和数字战略。
If you're wondering why GM stock was up today, it's because they gave bullish guidance when it comes to operating profit for 2024 of between $12 and $14 billion. How are they doing this? Well, they still have a very lucrative business for ICE trucks and SUVs. They lost $1.7 billion on the EV business, the UAW strikes cost GM $1.1 billion across Q3 and Q4, and they're planning for auto prices to fall between 2 and 2.5% this year.
如果你想知道为什么今天通用汽车的股票上涨了，那是因为他们对2024年的营业利润给出了乐观的预测，预计在120到140亿美元之间。他们是如何做到这一点的呢？嗯，他们仍然拥有非常有利可图的内燃机卡车和SUV业务。他们在电动汽车业务上亏损了17亿美元，美国汽车工人联合会的罢工使通用汽车在第三季度和第四季度损失了11亿美元，并且他们计划今年汽车价格下降2到2.5%。
This was a fun reminder I saw from Holmars on X where Cruz got $1.15 billion from Tiro Price and Softbank. This was back in 2019 and this funding for Cruz came weeks after Tiro Price said it sold 92% of its stake in Tesla. In May 2019, Tesla was around $15 per share.
这是我在X上看到的一条有趣的提示，Holmars提到了Cruz从Tiro Price和Softbank获得了11.5亿美元。这发生在2019年，而且这笔资金是在Tiro Price宣布出售其在特斯拉92%股权的几周后提供给Cruz的。2019年5月，特斯拉的股价大约是15美元每股。
Akyo Toyota, the chairman of Toyota, just addressed his company after the recent embarrassments. He said the group has lost sight of its founding principles. We were expecting a grand new vision forward for Toyota from this meeting, but this is what we got. Intentionally vague principles to inspire each leader and each company to formulate their own road to improvement. These principles being think of others, support each other, hone our skills, make things the right way, and continue dialogue. This new global vision has nothing in the way of hard targets. Translation? Why don't all of you guys figure out the new strategy and plan going forward and just be good to each other and do the right thing in the process.
丰田汽车公司的董事长丰田章男在最近的尴尬事件发生后向公司发表了讲话。他表示集团已经迷失了自己的创始原则。我们原本期望在这次会议上能听到关于丰田的新愿景，但我们得到的却是故意含糊的原则，以激励每位领导和每个公司制定自己的改进计划。这些原则包括关心他人、互相支持、磨砺技能、正确生产产品，以及保持对话。这个新的全球愿景没有明确的目标。翻译过来就是：为什么不让大家自己找出前进的新战略和计划，并在过程中友好相处，做正确的事情呢？
India's EV adoption is also hitting roadblocks. The main reason the lack of EV charging infrastructure is proving to be a big factor in buyers opting to not choose an EV.
印度的电动车普及也面临阻碍。缺乏电动车充电基础设施是导致购车者不选择电动车的一个重要因素。
Lucid has expanded its factory in Arizona by 3 million square feet in preparation for production of the Gravity SUV. This makes the factory more than four times its previous size. It did not say what the new annual production capacity will be.
卢西德已经将其在亚利桑那州的工厂扩大了300万平方英尺，为Gravity SUV的生产作准备。这使得该工厂的规模超过了之前的四倍以上。然而，它没有透露新的年产能将是多少。
Renault has scrapped those IPO plans for its EV and software arm and peer, citing valuation concerns, and VW has put efforts to seek outside investors for its power co-batter unit on the back burner.
雷诺取消了其电动汽车和软件部门以及同行的IPO计划，原因是对估值的担忧，而大众汽车则将寻求外部投资者进入其动力电池单位的努力暂时搁置了起来。
Tesla stock closed today at $191.59 up 0.35% compared to the NASDAQ down 0.76%. Tesla stock traded about 1.4 million shares lower than the average 30-day volume.
特斯拉股票今天以191.59美元收盘，比纳斯达克下跌0.76％。特斯拉股票的交易量比30天平均交易量低了约140万股。
Hope you guys have a wonderful day. Please like the video if you did. You can find me on X linked below and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.
希望你们今天过得愉快。如果你喜欢这个视频，请给它点赞。你可以在下方找到我的X链接，非常感谢所有支持我的Patreon赞助者们。