Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis. First up today, Cyber Truck is officially in China and, no surprise, attracting many people's attention. We also got this short video of a cyber truck pulling into a Tesla showroom in China and you can see all of the people huddled around it taking video per the usual.
This drive Tesla Canada article didn't have any special information, it was really just using the comments from the Q4 call when Tom Zu said that based on their current conversion rate, they're expecting to fill out their 2024 production allotment relatively soon. And so far, no Canadian customers have actually got emails to place their order. Canadians therefore may be waiting until 2025 to get their hands on a cyber truck.
This is the homepage of the DelVal International School District where it's showing Tesla donating $600,000 for a new Gigafactory for their manufacturing studio with a cyber truck in the background. DelVal is in Travis County, Texas. Currently they have just over 11,000 students spanning elementary schools, middle schools, high schools, and a few others. This P-Tech Manufacturing Studio is a four-year program preparing students for careers in robotics and automation. The Tesla team is proud to help provide manufacturing and automotive training equipment and already 144 students have been hired into full-time Tesla jobs through the Manufacturing Development Program. This partnership between Tesla and DelVal started back in 2021 when they created a student training program for high school students that were interested in working at Gigatexas.
Martin Vieja spilled the beans on the Model 3 Plus performance saying congrats James May who used to work at Top Gear. Martin said you should get the performance one once that comes out. So if it wasn't official before, I think this is enough to make it official now. Sadly, the big question still remains when is the performance Model 3 Plus coming out but hopefully this removes any doubt if there was some left.
Here we have a Tesla software update that's already been pushed and the problem has been fixed. It had to do with a software glitch where the backup camera may not function when the car is in reverse. This covered 200,000 Tesla Model Ys and X vehicles from 2023. A cyber truck owner shared this screenshot of his user interface and at the bottom you can see locking differential controls coming soon. Lockers as they're called can lock the axles together to provide all of the torque that's available to the tire that has the traction which can make the off-road experience much more enjoyable. In an off-road situation where your traction may be limited and one tire is slipping or spinning, that's where these locking differentials will come in.
Checking fuel economy.gov we now have 8 different variants of the VW ID4 that all qualify for the full $7,500 tax credit. This car is produced in Chattanooga, Tennessee and does start around $38,000 last year in the US alone. The ID4 sold roughly 30,000 units. The tech and the specs with the ID4 will not knock your socks off but it now starts at $31,500 compared to the cheapest you can get into a Model Y after the tax credit of about $36,500 so about $5,000 more affordable for the entry ID4. Is it worth the savings though for all of the tradeoffs? As we know that's an entirely different question.
Kathy Hochl, the first female governor of New York State today just announced two giant computing projects totaling more than $900 million in state and private sector investment. As part of that $900 million total, Tesla will be spending more than $500 million over 5 years to install a dojo supercomputer at Giga New York. The other $400 million will be for an empire AI computing center at the University of Buffalo. Elon chimed in saying the governor is correct, this is a dojo super computer but $500 million while obviously a large sum of money is only equivalent to a 10,000 H100 system from Nvidia or about 50,000 a pop. Tesla will spend more than that on Nvidia hardware this year. The table stakes for being competitive in AI are at least several billion dollars per year at this point. Then Elon was asked if Tesla has any plans to buy chips from AMD to which Elon said yes.
Pretty interesting timing for Elon to chime in on the AMD chip acquisition as just a few weeks ago AMD announced their MI 300X GPU that's supposed to be a direct competitor to the Nvidia H100. AMD has claimed the MI 300X outperforms the H100 across various critical metrics. AMD is expecting the MI 300X chips will be the quickest product to surpass a billion dollars in sales. A milestone it projects will be reached around mid 2024.
Certainly encouraging to hear this from Tesla right after reiterating those long shot comments. Doing the math though if we assume Tesla spends roughly $3 billion on Nvidia and AMD chips that means the dojo spent on this project is only about 16% of that. However if you've been following along over the past few months we've also heard that Tesla was working on that bunker at Gigatexis for another dojo super computer As I said yesterday even if dojo is a long shot I love to see Tesla taking the risk because looking at their track record they have a pretty good one when it comes to making long shots successful and we know Tesla started this dojo project at a facility in Palo Alto. Additionally Elon told us last year Tesla plans to invest well over $1 billion in developing dojo by the end of this year. Between Palo Alto, Gigat Austin and now this new facility in Buffalo, Tesla most likely on track for over a billion dollars spend with dojo already.
I think Elon's announcement that Tesla's going to buy AMD chips as well is almost as important as this dojo announcement because we know it can be tough to get those H100s from Nvidia. At this point Tesla is just buying as much compute power as it can get since that is the limiting factor when it comes to training all of this video data. Going forward now they'll have three main options to see which one works the best and they can iterate from there.
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The purchase of an EV is completely discretionary and so when you lay over some of the concerns that you know I mentioned a little earlier you know combined with an economy that's somewhat uncertain. You know from a pricing standpoint it could be it could be a tough year for selling EVs. It's going to continue to grow on that front today. Polestar just announced it plans to cut around 450 jobs globally or about 15 percent of its total workforce amid challenging market conditions. They'll also reduce their external spend and now we have some analysts calling for Polestar to go private again. All time Polestar stock is down about 77 percent and sits at roughly a four and a half billion dollar market cap.
That Elon tweet back in 2018 about factory workers potentially losing some of their stock options if they were to unionize is under scrutiny again. This time a US appeals court is considering whether the National Labor Relations Board has the power to police social media. The takeaway so far it's not clear how the court is leaning. One circuit judge said it seems to me if we uphold a categorical barrier where the NLRB can't consider what's on Twitter it just creates a potential wild west of unfair labor practices that could never be addressed. The counter argument allowing the NLRB to police comments made outside the workplace would violate employers free speech rights under the constitution. Too early to know how this one ends.
You know Tesla is the spahimith in the AI space. It's going to be one of the greatest AI opportunities of our time and I think to ignore that is frankly wrong when thinking about the stock so I'm excited about it. I mean when you look at EVs as a whole traditional automakers are cutting back on their electric vehicle platforms. I mean that's a bad idea because EVs are already cost competitive with gas powered cars and guess what it's only going to get cheaper so this is the future and Tesla is the leader there.
Yes so you know we're currently updating our model look out for let's say for the next few months an updated price target for MOSFRA at 2028 and actually our big ideas deck or annual research presentation on you know the technologies that we cover as a whole is coming out soon so that'll give you a little preview.
From renew economy in the Australian market battery storage is now the dominant player in the provision of key services to the grid. Batteries took a 50% share in the frequency and ancillary services fca s market in the December quarter up 38% from a year earlier. Part of the reason is the speed and versatility of battery storage and these systems are the only technologies quick and smart enough to respond competitively. Overall total frequency and ancillary service cost for the quarter were $33 million a $6 million reduction from the September quarter last year and it was just slightly more than half the $64 million cost of the same quarter in 2022.
We want to deploy zero emissions via polls reduce our carbon footprint but we still got to make sure we can run our operations and deliver our goods across the country. Pepsi operates about 21 Tesla semis out of their Sacramento distribution center. Their goal is to work out any operational challenges that come with replacing diesel power trucks which can cover more than a thousand miles on a tank. These trucks can run up to 500 miles on a single charge in a single day so between two drivers one truck 24 hours we were able to run 1,076 miles on a single electric truck so we've got 750 kilowatt chargers here in Sacramento to allow us to charge those trucks quickly. Pepsi continues to be a great champion for the Tesla semi and hopefully by the end of this year we start to see that volume production in giga Nevada and I would imagine the semi is going to have some pretty healthy margins. As always once the production line is running closer to scale.
For some context on Tesla deploying 14.7 gigawatt hours of battery storage in 2023, Germany's total cumulative installs as of the end of 2022 stood at 6.5 gigawatt hours across all market segments rising to 11.2 gigawatt hours by the end of 2023. Translation Tesla installed more battery energy storage than Germany has cumulatively as of the end of last year.
So first I'll say on Robotaxes I mean you know I encourage everyone to look at the videos online that are coming out of FSD full self-driving version 12. It's amazing. It drives like a human. People are doing full drives, zero interventions. So the fact of the matter is Robotaxes are already possible today just in you know select areas. I'm not saying it works everywhere right but we have evidence that it's possible. We see other companies like Waymo also telling us that it's possible but Tesla itself has great technology and when we think of scale and you know the number of cars that they're producing to put this in perspective the data advantage that Tesla has is orders of magnitude higher than other players. Tesla has is able to look at data from more than 2 million miles per day of customers driving in full self driving mode. You know that compares with other players like Waymo that you know they might have collected single digit millions in the lifetime of the project. So again I think Robotaxes are already here. Don't miss this opportunity.
The board chair of Mercedes dealerships is saying that the industry needs to get a better handle on demand and adoption rates for electric vehicles. He said I think adoption rates maybe didn't fall into some of the numbers we would have hoped for which would have made this transition a little bit easier. We want to help shape their sales programs in this world where the adoption rates are not equal across the country. That's a real challenge for every manufacturer. How do you deal with California that's at 40 or 50% either adoption and maybe New York that's 15% with others at 5% when asked what the biggest challenge for Mercedes dealers in 2024 would be figuring out the adoption. Secondarily vehicle affordability is an issue and interest rates have not helped.
There's one other issue investors need to look at and that is for the last 10 years when it comes to EVs it's all been about range and price. Now it's moving over to being about tariffs and privacy because as you point out you know will Tesla and will BYD come to the US they're absolutely coming to the US already selling buses here successfully they've started selling in Europe but consumers are increasingly going to ask the question do I feel comfortable driving a car with a Chinese IoT device that knows where I'm going maybe listening in on me that's a big issue and then the tariff issue is another big one.
US needs to be careful on tariffs because we may feel good with a 25% tariff we've slapped on but there's a much bigger auto market in China than there is here and if China reciprocates we may think twice about that. I thought it was interesting hearing the confidence from Steve Wesley a former Tesla board member when he talked about BYD's entry into the American market more than just buses that they're already selling.
Model 3 plus long range deliveries have been pushed back one month to March to April the rear wheel drive variant still sits at February to March. We got a quote from Ron Barron's son David Barron saying he expects Tesla stock to reach $1,200 by 2030 up about 550% from current levels perhaps even more encouraging for some he said he still expects Tesla stock to touch around $300 in the next 12 months up from the roughly $183 right now. David manages Barron's focused growth fund which is composed of about 11% of Tesla stock so naturally you would expect some bullish comments.
Model 3长续航版本的交付时间已经推迟一个月,从三月到四月,而后驱版本仍在二月到三月之间。我们从罗恩·巴伦的儿子大卫·巴伦那里得到了一份报价,他预计特斯拉的股票价格将在2030年达到1200美元,相比当前水平大约涨了550%,甚至更令人鼓舞的是,他还表示他预计特斯拉股票在未来12个月内将上涨至约300美元,而当前价格仅约为183美元。大卫管理着巴伦集团的重点成长基金,其中约11%的股份是特斯拉股票,所以我们可以预料到他会有一些看涨的评论。
This week GM announced new plans to invest $1.4 billion over the next 5 years in Brazil for EV production. Stellantis and VW are expected to make similar investments and it sounds like they're all after some tax incentives. GM authority is also reporting that there's an enormous new structure being added in Michigan that is expected to support the production of new GM EVs. The last time we heard about this was when the Sierra and the Silverado EVs were delayed toward the end of 2025 so we'll see if anything changes.
We've talked about this one a few times before but now we have crews under investigation by almost all of the US federal agencies. Crews said it's cooperating with the Justice Department, the SEC, among other state and federal agencies examining how they handled that one pedestrian accident. Crews hired an independent law firm to review the company and the conclusion the reason for crews' failings in this instance are numerous.
Poor leadership, mistakes and judgment, lack of coordination in us versus them mentality with regulators and a fundamental misapprehension of Crews' obligations of accountability and transparency to the government and to the public. Even worse, even after the agencies got their hands on the full video of what happened when crews only shared a portion of it, crews still did not correct public narrative but continued instead to share incomplete facts and video about the accident with the media and the public.
Honda's first all-electric SUV the prologue is set to arrive in dealerships this March with 296 miles of EPA range, starting price $47,400. Honda said it'll have an 85kWh pack and charge up to 150kWh. The word is this car is going to be built in Mexico but the groove Honda website is saying the 2024 Honda prologue will be eligible for a tax credit up to $7,500.
In Germany, Mercedes plans to sell all of its car dealerships but they said it's not because of financial problems. They're describing this move as a realignment. The article doesn't give much information, they just said these dealerships are not going to cease operations, they're just going to be sold to other operators.
I'm not quite sure where this is from but John shared this image of the project midsize the third EV from Lucid Motors that's supposed to come after the Lucid gravity, still under wraps and we'll see if they can make it to production of that vehicle. This is supposed to be Lucid's Model Y.
According to some public documents, it looks like Rivian is setting up for an event on March 7th this year where they may actually unveil their R2 platform. Rivian was looking to book part of Laguna Beach for a half day public event on March 7th.
Porsche has announced its second EV, the Macon, starting at $80,400. It'll have a 100kWh battery on an 800V architecture with charging speeds up to 270kWh. Porsche said it'll release the range of this vehicle closer to delivery. Pre-orders for the Macon are open now and Porsche estimates deliveries will begin in the second half of this year.
This right here was a top 10 list shared by Dan Ives on what Tesla and Elon need to do to turn around the narrative on Wall Street. I'm not going to read them to you so pause if you would like.
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别忘了查看下面的Soilent链接,利用那个折扣优惠,如果您能这样做,先提前感谢您。
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