The Ups And Ups Of The Stock Market
发布时间 2024-01-22 21:00:00 来源
What goes up must go up? Motley Fool Money starts now. Welcome to Motley Fool Money.
究竟什么上升了就必须上升呢？《疯狂愚人金钱》现在开始了。欢迎来到《疯狂愚人金钱》。
I'm Deidre Willard here with Motley Fool analyst Jason Moser. Jason, how's your Monday going so far?
我是迪德拉·威拉德，与万圣愚者分析师杰森·莫泽一同在这里。杰森，你的星期一进行得如何？
Hey, Deidre, just great. How about yours?
嘿，迪德拉，你好棒。你的情况怎样？
Well, pretty good and really good. I guess if you're watching the stock market, we hit an all-time high for the S&P 500 on Friday and this morning it zoomed up again. Interesting because the last all-time high was set in January of 2022. Not that long ago, but it feels like a long time.
嗯，相当不错，真的很好。我猜如果你在关注股市，我们在周五创下了标普500指数的历史新高，而今天早上它又飙升了。有趣的是，上一个历史新高是在2022年1月。虽然并不久远，但感觉时间过得挺久的。
It does, doesn't it?
是的，对吗？
It does. What should we be thinking as we look at this rally?
它确实是如此。当我们看着这次集会时，我们应该如何考虑呢？
Well, you know, I was saying on Motley Fool Money on Friday, as well as the market performed in 2023, it just didn't quite feel like it.
嗯，你知道的，我上周五在Motley Fool Money节目中说过，虽然2023年的市场表现不俗，但感觉还不够满意。
Maybe there are just sort of pockets about performance into that point.
或许只是在那个阶段里有一些关于表现的局限区域。
这句话的意思是，在特定的阶段里可能只存在一些关于表现的局部问题或限制。
We can't ignore the Magnificent Seven, right? I mean, a lot of people are probably sick of us saying this, but the fact of the matter is while we've talked about the Magnificent Seven for a while, their outsized impact cannot be ignored. I mean, when you look at these seven companies and then you think that over the course of 2023, the laggard of the seven was Apple, which was still up like 50% and essentially better than double the market's returns there.
我们不能忽视这七家公司，对吧？我的意思是，很多人可能对我们说这个感到厌倦，但事实是，尽管我们已经谈论过这七家公司一段时间了，但是它们对市场的巨大影响不容忽视。我是说，当你看着这七家公司，然后再想到在2023年期间，表现最差的苹果公司股价仍上涨了50%，基本上是市场回报的两倍，这一点就更不容忽视了。
I mean, we can just see that clearly those seven companies have had a big impact on the way the overall market has performed. Now that doesn't mean that the rest of the market hasn't performed well or offered an investor's opportunity. I mean, obviously stocks on the whole are performing very well.
我的意思是，显然可以清楚地看到这七家公司对整个市场的影响很大。这并不意味着其他部分的市场表现不好或没有为投资者提供机会。我的意思是，总体而言，股市表现非常出色。
I think a lot of that really is being driven by this idea that inflation really is now starting to come back down. The Fed's actions have made a difference. The conversation that comes with that right is that now we went through such a long stretch of pushing rates up. Now it's a matter of when will they start cutting rates. And maybe the question is, are they going to be cutting rates sooner rather than later or is this something that will be put off for a little while?
我认为这很大程度上是由于通胀开始回落的想法驱动的。美联储的行动产生了影响。随之而来的对话是，我们经历了很长一段时间的加息。现在的问题是他们何时开始降息。也许问题是，他们会较早降息还是要推迟一段时间？
It's that question of cutting rates because you can versus cutting rates because you have to. And I think we're not quite there yet as to understanding exactly which scenario will play out. But I mean, there's still reason I don't want to be a Debbie Downer. I mean, one only is glass that full as possible. But there are reasons at least to at least be sort of skeptical.
这是关于降息的问题，因为你能够降还是因为你不得不降的区别。我认为，我们还没有完全明白哪种情况会发生。但是，我并不想完全悲观。我们至少要尽可能保持积极态度。但是，至少有一些理由让人持怀疑态度。
I mean, you look at the holiday spending here, for example, you look at credit card debt and credit card debt at a record high. The delinquency rates have actually doubled over the past two years. And if you look back during the pandemic, right, those delinquency rates were one thing. But if you look at the delinquencies while they were at historic lows during the COVID-19 pandemic, the rating people have gone more than 30 days about paying their credit card bill has recently it topped pre pandemic levels.
我的意思是，你看看这里的节假日消费，例如你看看信用卡债务，信用卡债务已经创下历史新高。过去两年，拖欠率实际上翻了一番。回顾一下疫情期间，那时的拖欠率是另一回事。但是如果你看看拖欠率，在COVID-19疫情期间，拖欠率处于历史最低点，但最近已经超过了疫情前的水平，有超过30天没支付信用卡账单的人数达到了前所未有的高点。
So I mean, that that just is all to say that, you know, we were we're comparing sort of apples to apples, right? It's a bit more of a normal time versus a normal time.
所以我的意思是，这就是说，你知道，我们在比较类似的情况，对吧？这更多地是将一种正常时间与另一种正常时间进行比较。
Buy now pay later. You look at that. That's something we talk about a lot on this show. I mean, that that was a big contributor to holiday spending boosted holiday spending about 14%, which which is obviously a lot. We're starting to see some impacts there of some questions as to whether that is is debt that's going to be paid back or at least is going to be paid back on time. Student loan payments kind of coming back into play.
现在购买，以后付款。你看看这个。这是我们在节目中经常谈论的一个话题。我的意思是，这在提高节日消费方面起到了很大的推动作用，大约提高了14%的节日消费，这显然很多。我们开始看到一些影响，一些问题涉及到这是否是一笔会被偿还的债务，或者至少是否会按时偿还。学生贷款开始再次受到关注。
So I feel like there's a lot of stuff we're going to see unfolding here over the course of the next couple of quarters that'll kind of determine whether we, you know, hit that soft landing that I think a lot of a lot of optimists are hoping that we hit versus something like maybe a less than soft landing. Should I just say, you know, yeah, I think that's a concern. And so yeah, so we're looking for for interest rates. We're looking to see something there that will probably know in a couple of months.
我感觉在接下来的几个季度中，我们将会看到很多事情的展开，这将决定我们是否会实现一种柔和着陆，我想很多乐观主义者都希望我们能够达到这种柔和着陆，而不是一种不太柔和的着陆。我该怎么说呢，是的，我认为这是一个值得关注的问题。因此，我们正在关注利率的情况。我们很可能在几个月内就会有所了解。
But the other thing that I'm thinking about is you said, like you said, the magnificent seven so much of this is the AI story is so what is it as we look forward to earning earnings? Is that going to be a like, could that be a place where we get we get a little blip here of like a not a full blown reckoning, but definitely a check it.
但另一件我在思考的是，你说过，正如你所说，这个AI故事是非常壮观的，那么当我们展望盈利时，这会是什么情况呢？它会像我们期待的那样，出现一个小小的波动，而不是完全崩溃，但肯定是值得检查的。
I mean, it's absolutely possible. I mean, AI has become the headline du jour, right? And I mean, for a long time, and I mean, I read a great article over the over the weekend by I think it was Christopher Mims and in the Wall Street Journal that was kind of talking about these technologies that have gotten so much attention over the last several years that maybe it's time we start pulling back the expectations on them.
我的意思是，这是完全可能的。我的意思是，人工智能已经成为当今的头条新闻，对吧？而且，我是说，有很长时间了，我是说，上周末我读了一篇非常棒的文章，我想是克里斯托弗·米姆斯在华尔街日报上发表的，他谈到了这些在过去几年里备受关注的技术，也许是时候开始降低对它们的期望了。
I mean, artificial intelligence clearly kind of taking over, whereas, you know, all of these technologies we've been talking about in regard to things like blockchain and crypto or autonomous driving, you know, maybe or even the metaverse.
我是说，人工智能明显地开始主导，与此同时，你知道的，我们一直在谈论的区块链、加密货币、自动驾驶，甚至是元宇宙这些技术，也许会被AI取代。
I mean, these are those are the three the three points of the article where it's like so much money has been invested in these spaces and so much time has been spent on talking about the merits and sort of the benefits of these spaces. But we haven't really seen that stuff materialize yet. And so now we're kind of the conversations moving on to AI.
我是说，这些就是这篇文章中涉及的三个观点，就像在这些领域已经投入了大量资金，花费了大量时间讨论这些领域的优点和好处。但是我们还没有真正看到这些东西实现。所以现在我们的对话转向了人工智能。
We're talking a little bit less about these other things and that makes sense. I mean, the question is, will AI actually materialize into something, at least in a near term? That's a bit more tangible. I think a lot of these technologies and it's not to say that things like crypto and autonomous driving and in whatnot, the metaverse is not to say they won't pay off.
我们对这些其他事情谈论得少一些，这是有道理的。我的意思是，问题是，人工智能是否会在近期内真正变成实际存在的东西？这更加具体。我认为很多这些技术，并不是说像加密货币、自动驾驶以及诸如此类的东西，甚至元宇宙这些都没有回报。
But it is to say that maybe it's going to take a little bit longer than perhaps a lot of people expected. I don't know that AI is necessarily going to fall into that bucket. I think we can we can really see a lot of the benefits that come from AI, but they not they may not necessarily be directly connected to us as investors, right?
但这意味着也许会比很多人预期的时间要长一些。我不知道人工智能是否会遇到这种情况。我认为我们确实可以看到人工智能带来的许多益处，但它们可能并不一定与我们作为投资者直接相关。
It feels like a lot of this is stuff. AI is really is really benefiting us behind the scenes, making our lives easier, but not necessarily as explicit of an opportunity for investors as we may hope. I guess I guess time will tell.
感觉很多东西都是人工智能。人工智能真的在幕后改善着我们的生活，使之更加便利，但对于投资者来说，可能并不像我们希望的那样明显地提供机会。我想时间会告诉我们答案。
I think the other thing that I'm looking at is we're seeing these results in aggregate, but I'm also I mean, January has been a rough month in terms of layoffs. I mean, some of the companies kind of expected like Stitch Fix or even Solar Edge, but Amazon, Alphabet.
我认为我关注的另一件事是我们正在看到这些结果的总体情况，但是我也是指，从裁员的角度来看一月份过得很艰难。我的意思是，一些公司比如Stitch Fix甚至Solar Edge，我们对这些公司的裁员有所预料，但是亚马逊，Alphabet居然也有。
So I'm wondering if we're seeing signs from individual companies versus the kind of the aggregate rise up. Does that worry you at all? It worries me a little bit.
所以我想知道我们是否看到了一些个别公司的迹象，这与总体上升相比。这会让你有些担心吗？这让我稍微有些担心。
Well, I mean, I think that's fair, right? I mean, it's important to know that we're seeing these cuts across the spectrum. I mean, the companies that are doing well and companies that are not doing well are all cutting, cutting jobs, right? I mean, this is not something that's just like you limited to one specific demographic of capitalism, so to speak.
嗯，我的意思是，我认为这是公平的，对吧？我的意思是，了解到我们在各个领域都看到了这些削减是很重要的。不管是做得好的公司还是做不好的公司，都在裁员，对吧？我的意思是，这不是仅仅针对某一个特定的资本主义角度而言的。
You look at a report published by Challenger Gray and Christmas, which is in the hiring space, the pace of job cuts by US employers in 2023. We saw that number surge 98% compared to the previous year.
你查看了一份由招聘领域的公司Challenger Gray and Christmas发布的报告，报告指出美国雇主在2023年裁员速度增长了98%，相比之前的年份。
I mean, layoffs are a real thing and they're happening across the board. I mean, the cost of employment are going up. We're seeing unions. Clearly, unions have been a big story over the last couple of years. And I mean, whether you're pro union or anti union, I mean, it doesn't matter to me, but they are taking advantage of this point in history, right?
我的意思是，裁员是真实存在的，而且在各个行业都在发生。我的意思是，雇佣成本正在上升。我们看到了工会的存在。显而易见，工会在过去几年一直是一个重要话题。而且，不管你是支持还是反对工会，对我来说并不重要，但他们正在利用当下这个历史节点。
This advantage of the cycle. And I think that's what makes sense, right? Unions have to take advantage. They've got to strike while the iron's hot, so they're doing that. And so what that does is that changes the cost structure of some of these businesses, right? The cost of doing everything is going up. Even with inflation coming back down, I mean, I think most people would agree the cost of living is a lot higher.
这是周期的优势。我觉得这是有意义的，对吧？工会必须要利用这个优势。他们必须要趁热打铁，所以他们正在这样做。这样做的结果就是改变了一些企业的成本结构，对吧？做任何事情的成本都在上升。即使通胀开始回落，我觉得大多数人都会同意生活成本是在大幅上升的。
You just tie this, tie this into just your everyday life. I was looking at this the other day. The cost of auto insurance is up 20.3% in December from a year earlier. And when you look at something like auto insurance, which is basically a requisite. Everybody needs it. If you're going to be driving a car and most people are, you're paying auto insurance in some form or another.
你只需要将这个与你的日常生活联系起来。前几天我看到了这个。去年12月份，汽车保险费用上涨了20.3%。而当你看一下像汽车保险这样的东西，基本上是必需品。每个人都需要它。如果你要开车，而大多数人都在开车，那你就需要以某种形式支付汽车保险费用。
I mean, when those costs jump like that, when they increase like that, that's something that impacts everybody from consumers to the places that those consumers shop. So it's always something to keep in mind.
我的意思是，当这些成本跳涨时，当它们增加时，这将影响从消费者到消费者购物地点的每个人。所以这是一件需要牢记的事情。
Yeah. And I think this is just a reminder that a rally is great. A rally is exciting, but a rally is also stock markets have cycles. We are going to go through cycles and everything that goes down goes up and things that go up. Well, they go down at some point. Yeah. Unfortunately.
是的，我认为这只是一个提醒：投资大会很棒，令人兴奋，但股市也有周期。我们将经历周期，所有下跌的事物都会上涨，而上涨的事物在某个时候会下跌。是的，不幸的是这样。
Let's talk about a company that has had some layoffs recently at the Macy's that they announced layoffs on Friday announced their closing more stores. And then over the weekend, they confirmed what we knew in December, which is that they had received a takeover offer for $5.8 billion. They officially rejected it, but I felt like they left the door open.
让我们来谈谈最近有一家公司进行了一些裁员的情况。梅西百货公司在上周五宣布了裁员计划，并宣布他们将关闭更多的门店。随后在周末，他们确认了我们在去年12月已经知晓的消息，即他们收到了一个价值58亿美元的收购要约。他们正式拒绝了这个要约，但我觉得他们似乎还给了一丝机会。
And it's an interesting play because it's a brand. It's a great brand, a fading brand. And in a vertical that is definitely seeing pressure, you've also got a nice bit of real estate, including that prime flagship store in Harold Square. We know private equity wants it. Do you think there's a public play here?
这是一个有趣的戏剧，因为它是一个品牌。它是一个伟大的品牌，但正在逐渐消失。在这个行业中，无疑面临着压力，但你还是拥有一块不错的房产，包括哈罗德广场的主要旗舰店。我们知道私募股权对此很感兴趣。你认为这里有公开交易的机会吗？
So I mean, there absolutely could be a public angle there. I would imagine this is more attractive from a private equity perspective. I mean, when you look at the reason why this deal didn't happen, right? There are concerns over financing and valuation. And then evaluation is obviously a bit more subjective. I mean, the financing pieces, I mean, you're going to make that assessment and go forward.
所以我的意思是，这完全可能有一个公众的角度。我会想象从私募股权的角度来看，这更有吸引力。我是说，当你看看这笔交易未能实现的原因，对吧？担忧涉及融资和估值。而估值显然更具主观性。我是说，融资部分，你会进行评估并继续推进。
To me, though, when you look at Macy's, Macy's as a business, I think we all would agree. I mean, every metric, this is a business that is challenged right now, right? Every metric tells you that this is a challenged business. I mean, revenue growth is not there, right? Cash flow. We're seeing cash burn margins on the decline. I mean, they're there. Every metric tells you this is a challenge business. And from that perspective, it was probably nicer to be able to keep that stuff off of the public radar. So many like a private equity can get in there, buy this out and then go in there and do their thing to try to fix the business. Now, the problem is at the end of the day, if that happens, then at some point down the line, you probably see it IPO again. And then they're just saddled with a ton of debt. I mean, it's happened before. So I mean, I don't know that that necessarily is the ideal long term play, but to me, it feels like still, even though this deal didn't really work out and it still may, you never know, they could come to a negotiation. But it does seem like the PE perspective is a bit more of an attractive one as opposed to staying in the public guy.
对我来说，当你看着梅西百货(Macy's)作为一家企业，我想我们都会同意。我的意思是，无论从哪个角度来看，这是一家正面临挑战的企业。每个指标都表明这是一家受到挑战的企业。我的意思是，营收增长无法实现，现金流也在下滑。这些都存在。每个指标都告诉你这是一家挑战性的企业。从这个角度来看，能够将这些问题保持在公众视野之外，或许是件好事。这样私人股本就可以进入其中，买下这家企业，然后按照他们的方式来解决问题。然而，问题在于，最终如果发生这种情况，他们可能在未来某个时候再次上市。而且还将背负大量债务。这种情况已经发生过。因此，我不确定长期来看这是否是理想的策略，但对我来说，即使这笔交易没有真正成功，目前看来还不确定，他们仍然有可能达成协议。但从私募股权的角度来看，似乎更具吸引力，而不是以公开身份存在。
Yeah. And it's I've been watching this too, because you've got a CEO who's been there for a while. He announced his retirement last year. It's supposed to be in February. Yet no official date has been released yet, but you've got this new CEO, Tony Spring, who's the president of Bloomingdale's coming in with an idea of we're going to do smaller stores. We're going to get off mall. If you were in charge of Macy's at this pivot point, what would you do? That is a that is a big question. It's a fun one though.
是的。我一直在关注这件事，因为你们有一位已经在那里工作了一段时间的首席执行官。他去年宣布了退休的消息，预计在二月份退休。然而，目前还没有发布正式的日期，但是你们有这位新的首席执行官托尼·斯普林，他是布卢明代尔百货公司的总裁，他带来了一个新的想法：我们要做小型店铺，我们要离开购物中心。如果你是梅西百货的负责人，在这个转折点上，你会怎么做？这是一个很大的问题。不过，也挺有趣的。
Yeah, it is. I mean, because there are a number of different ways to look at it, right? I'm assuming that you want to continue on as a retail concept. I mean, the key for retail operators, you want to you want to keep growing your revenue, right? And selling stuff and that ebbs and flows. I mean, you can't force people to buy stuff. I mean, obviously you can create a store with with things that people want to buy. But I feel like I'd focus more at least on what in the near turn, at least what I could control, right? And in looking at the metrics, like I was talking about earlier, the metrics of this business are in decline. Focus on the cost structure of the business, right? Focus on the inputs that go into making this business run. And if you just look at operating margin alone for this business, you go back 10 years, right? Operating margin has been cut by more than half over the last 10 years. So clearly, this is a business that is not operating as efficiently as it could. And that's exacerbated when you consider declining sales. And so obviously they need to they need to figure the sales part out. But I think that the operating side is a bit more in their control in the near term. So I think I would really just be laser focused on that.
是的，没错。我的意思是，有很多不同的方式来看待这个问题，对吧？我猜你希望继续作为零售概念存在。我的意思是，对于零售运营商来说，你希望能够继续增加收入，对吧？销售量有涨有落，你不能强迫人们购买商品。当然，你可以开设一家供人们购买的商店。但是我觉得至少在短期内，我更愿意把注意力放在我能控制的事物上。看一下之前我提到的指标，这个企业的指标正在下降。关注企业的成本结构，关注为企业运营所需的投入。如果你仅仅查看这个企业的营业毛利率，在过去的十年里，它减少了一半以上。很明显，这个企业的运营效率还有待提高，特别是考虑到销售量的下降。显然他们需要解决销售方面的问题，但是我认为在短期内，他们更能控制的是运营方面。所以我认为我会把重点放在这方面。
And then the other thing I keep coming back to. And I just I wonder if this is not something that we might not see at some point. Because you hear folks talk about Macy's and the real estate dynamic, right? They're real escaping a big part of the investment thesis there. I mean, I wonder if there's not something where Macy's figures out a way to become a real estate investment trust, right? Or read or if they merge with a read or something like that to take advantage of the real estate side of that of that argument. Because I mean, it is something worth keeping in mind. I mean, there is that dynamic to the business. But yeah, I think near term I'd be really focused on just the cost that go into maintaining this business.
然后，我还想谈谈另一件事。我想知道这是否是一种我们在某个时候可能会看到的情况。因为你会听到人们谈论梅西百货和房地产市场，对吧？他们确实逃避了投资的一大部分。我想知道梅西百货是否有可能找到一种成为房地产投资信托的方式，或者与房地产投资信托合并，以利用这一业务方面的优势。因为我觉得这是一个值得注意的因素。但是，我认为在短期内，我会非常关注维持这家企业所需的成本。
Yeah, you were just giving me flashbacks to to Sarah Taj there with what Sears did to try to spin, try to spin out that read aspect and get the value there at that. That that did not work out. Although those properties definitely still have value. It's a really tough problem.
是的，你刚才让我回想起了塞拉·塔吉，塞尔斯为了试图改变、试图摆脱那种读取方面的印象并从中获取价值而做的努力。但那并没有成功。尽管那些资产确实还有价值，这确实是一个非常棘手的问题。
Yeah, absolutely. Well, Jason, did you watch football this weekend? I did. I watched a lot of football this weekend. How about did you? I think a lot of people did. I did.
是的，绝对没错。那么，Jason，你这个周末看了足球比赛吗？我看了很多。你呢？我想很多人都看了。我看了。
And I'm thinking about the reason I'm asking is because it was a tough weekend for sports illustrated. A bunch of their employees were let go on Friday. And it's interesting case because the brand used to be owned by Meredith with publishers, Food and Wine and a bunch of other things. They sold it in 2019 to authentic brands, which owns Reebok. It's got Brooks Brothers. It's got, I think, Dolce and Gabbana as well as some sports figure licenses like Muhammad Ali. And so what happened was a green arena group had been operating sports illustrated. They failed to make payment. That agreement's terminated.
我在思考我提问的原因是因为上周对于《体育画报》来说是一个艰难的周末。他们的许多员工在星期五被解雇了。这个案例很有意思，因为这个品牌过去是由梅雷迪斯出版公司拥有的，他们还拥有《美食与美酒》等许多其他品牌。他们于2019年将它卖给了拥有锐步的真正品牌。真正品牌还拥有布鲁克斯兄弟、我想还有杜嘉班纳，以及一些体育明星的授权，比如穆罕默德·阿里。结果是，绿色竞技集团一直在经营《体育画报》，他们未能支付款项，导致协议终止了。
I'm wondering what do you think is the value of the sports illustrated brand now? I mean, this was the sports brand when I was growing up. But now you've got things like the athletic. Did sports illustrate still have that cache? I don't think it does.
我在想，你认为《体育画报》的品牌价值现在是多少？我是指我在成长过程中，它可是当地著名的体育品牌。但现在，像《The Athletic》这样的新兴品牌纷纷崛起。《体育画报》还拥有那种吸引力吗？我认为不再有了。
It reminds me like watching sports illustrated sort of this sports illustrated story play out over the over the last several decades. I mean, it was a big part of my childhood growing up. And I remember very well, like just every week, you know, the new sports illustrated came in. And I mean, it was just it was a big deal, right? I mean, it reminded me that immediately just reminded me of the warm but the quote first come to the innovators, then come to the imitators, then come to the idiots. And I think for the longest time, sports illustrated was the innovator in the space. They were the ones that really were doing something special, something noteworthy, something different.
这让我想起了观看《体育画报》的故事，在过去的几十年中一直发展演变。我是说，它曾经是我童年的重要组成部分。我非常清楚地记得，每周新一期的《体育画报》到来时，那是一件大事，对吧？它立刻让我想起了一个温暖的格言：先是创新者，然后是模仿者，接着是傻瓜。我认为在很长一段时间里，《体育画报》在这个领域是创新者。他们是那些真正做出特别、有价值、不同寻常的事情的人。
And I think a lot of that was was based on just the landscape at the time, right? This is pre-internet. So distribution was a big deal in that regard. And sports illustrated had figured that out, right? Distribution was a big part of the equation. When you think about sports reporting on the whole, I mean, it really isn't the end of the day. It's a commodity business. Personalities, I think, play a bigger role today than probably ever before when it comes to sports reporting.
我认为很大程度上是因为那个时代的情况决定的，对吧？那时还没有互联网。因此，分发在这方面是非常重要的。《体育画报》找到了这个方法，对吧？分发是方程式的重要组成部分。当你考虑整个体育报道时，说实话，这并不是一家独大的产业。个人品味，在今天的体育报道中起到比以往任何时候都更重要的作用。
And I think you can you can look at the sports landscape now. And you mentioned the athletic. That's one of many names out there that really are out there competing in this space. I mean, look at look at how quickly things like barstable sports are out kick. And look at personalities like Pat McAfee or Colin Coward, Steve and Steve Eddy Smith. I mean, it's much more now than it used to be before, right? Distribution is what was once a competitive advantage, not really the advantage anymore, right? SI had to lock on that back in the day. It was how we got it. But as we've seen with so many businesses, the internet has brought those costs down to basically nothing, which brings a lot of new competitors into the space, right? The imitators. And I mean, people may hear the word imitator and think poorly, but honestly, I mean, that's where a lot of money is made there. Folks that are kind of copying what you're doing. We've got new ways of disseminating information, disseminating that content.
我认为你可以看一下现在的体育领域。你提到了运动健将，这只是许多在这个领域竞争的名字之一。比如看看像巴斯特布尔体育这样的快速崛起，还有像帕特·麦卡菲或科林·考沃德、史蒂夫和斯蒂夫·埃迪·史密斯这样的人物。我意思是，现在比以前更多了，不是吗？分发曾经是一种竞争优势，但现在不再是优势了，对吧？《体育画报》曾经垄断这个领域。这是我们获得信息的方式。但正如我们看到的，互联网已经把这些成本降到几乎为零，这就给这个领域带来了许多新的竞争对手。我意思是模仿者这个词可能会让人们有负面的印象，但老实说，那里才是赚钱的地方。有很多人在模仿你的做法。我们有了新的传播信息、传播内容的方式。
I think you could be argued very effectively that SI has been completely asleep at the wheel when it comes to this stuff. And so yeah, it's a shame to see a brand that carried so much sway for so many years, really kind of lose its status. But it has. I don't know that the brand itself is even enough really to get it back.
我认为可以很有说服力地认为SI在这方面完全失职了。所以是的，看到一个曾经有如此大影响力的品牌真的失去了它的地位，这真是令人遗憾。但是它确实失去了。我不知道仅凭品牌本身是否足够使其恢复。
Yeah, yeah. I think that's a really good point. You know, it's interesting because I mean, we've seen so many brands go this way. And there's always the chance that authentic finds someone else to manage it. But at this point, it's not the happiest way to see it go. No, it just requires constant attention. It requires reinvention. You can never take your audience for granted. It's just it's not something where you can rest on your laurels. And it feels to me like maybe SI for a while really kind of perhaps is a little bit guilty of maybe resting on its laurels. And I think that's kind of gotten where they are where they are today. Yeah, yeah. Brand is a living thing.
是的，是的。我觉得这是一个非常好的观点。你知道的，有趣的是，我们已经看到这么多品牌这样做了。而且总会有机会让Authentic找到其他人来管理它。但是此时此刻，这并不是最开心的方式看待这一切。不，它需要不断地关注和改变。你不能把你的观众当作理所当然。它不是你能凭借过去的成就而安逸的东西。对我来说，也许SI在一段时间内确实有点过于满足于过去的成就。我认为这就是它们今天所处的位置的原因。是的，是的。品牌是一个活生生的东西。
Well, thanks for breaking it down with me today, Jason. Thank you.
嗯，Jason，感谢你今天和我详细解释清楚。谢谢你。
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You may know H&R Block is a tax prep company, but that's just one part of its growth story. I caught up with a chief strategy in small business officer, Jamil Khan, for a conversation about how H&R Block is harnessing artificial intelligence and what he's seeing in the gig work economy.
您可能知道H&R Block是一个税务准备公司，但这只是其增长故事的一部分。我和首席战略和小型企业官员Jamil Khan进行了一次对话，谈到了H&R Block如何利用人工智能以及他在零工经济中的观察。
I think most people think of H&R Block simply as a tax prep. We've all seen the commercials, but what would you like people to know about the company as a whole as we get started here?
我认为大多数人只是将H&R Block视为一个报税准备公司。我们都看过他们的广告，但在我们开始之前，您希望大家对这家公司有什么整体的了解呢？
Yeah, I'd agree that our core competency is tax prep. We meet the needs of our clients by blending human expertise and cutting edge tech to maximize their tax outcomes. But I'd also share as a company, we do so much more than seasonal tax prep. Through our small business block advisor services and Spruce, our mobile banking app, we're meeting our customer needs throughout the year. And with our clients, our single mom, a small business owner who zones a plumbing business or an Uber driver who has a side hustle, we're committed to maximizing their financial wellness and providing a human touch too.
是的，我同意我们的核心竞争力是税务准备。我们通过结合人类专业知识和尖端技术来满足客户的需求，以最大化他们的税务结果。但作为一家公司，我们做的远不止季节性的税务准备。通过我们的小型企业区块顾问服务和Spruce，我们的移动银行应用程序，我们在整年都满足客户的需求。对于我们的客户，无论是单身母亲、经营管道业务的小企业所有者，还是一名兼职开Uber的司机，我们致力于最大化他们的财务健康，并提供人性化服务。
Interesting. I'm curious about Spruce because I don't think most people would associate H&R Block with banking. Can you tell us a little bit more about that?
有趣。我对Spruce很感兴趣，因为我认为大多数人不会将H&R Block与银行业务联系起来。你能否再多给我们介绍一些呢？
Yeah, absolutely. It's not my area of expertise, but I'll give you a little high level. It's a mobile banking app we launched about a year ago. And really, it's providing and checking accounts, savings accounts for clients. It's no fee. And it's really, we've had some great feedback from our clients. We have both H&R Block tax clients who use it and also people who just use the app by themselves as well.
是的，完全正确。虽然这不是我的专长领域，但我会给你一些高层次的概要。这是我们大约一年前推出的一款手机银行应用。它主要提供给客户支票账户和储蓄账户，并且没有费用。我们从客户那里得到了一些很好的反馈。使用这个应用的人群包括H&R Block税务客户以及单独使用该应用的其他普通用户。
Interesting. So you joined the company in 2019. Of course, you'd heard of the company, probably seen it from afar. What surprised you once you got on the inside?
有趣。那你是在2019年加入该公司的。当然，你可能听说过这家公司，可能远远地看到过它。一旦你进入了公司，有什么事情让你感到惊讶？
Yeah, I think that's a great question. I mean, my biggest surprise was just how big the growth opportunity was for us as a company. We've been flat for many years. And the reason I joined is I saw some growth, but once I got a little closer and I peek under the hood, so to speak, I could just see the opportunity. So we're three lines of business, consumer tax, which we're really well known for. And that's how everyone thinks of us, small business and financial products. And we were best known for, as I mentioned, consumer tax at the time. I really didn't realize just how big the growth opportunity was for the other lines of business, which included small business, financial products. They were meaningful, established businesses, but were a lot more upside. And over the last few years, we've realized some of that growth and it's been a pretty exciting journey.
是的，我认为这是一个很好的问题。我的最大惊喜就是我们作为一个公司所面临的成长机会是多么的巨大。我们公司多年来一直处于停滞状态。我加入的原因是因为我看到了一些增长的机会，但是一旦我靠近一点并深入了解，我就能看到这个机会。所以我们有三个业务领域：个人税务，这是我们非常有名的业务领域。这是每个人对我们的认知，小企业和金融产品。当时，我们最为人所知的就是个人税务。我真的没有意识到其他两个业务领域（包括小企业和金融产品）的成长机会是多么巨大。它们是有意义的、成熟的业务，但有更多潜力。过去几年，我们已经实现了一些增长，这是一段非常令人兴奋的旅程。
I'm sure it has. And of course, last year, it probably got a lot more exciting with generative AI. And the AI craze that I think has swept up every company. And even from the outside, I can see some potential applications for for H&R Block. As a chief strategy officer, this thing comes at you. You see everybody integrating AI. How did you start the process of thinking about how it would work with the company?
我相信这肯定会发生的。当然，去年，生成式人工智能（generative AI）可能会使事情变得更加令人激动。我认为人工智能风靡了每家公司，甚至外部我也能看到H&R Block可能有一些潜在的应用。作为首席战略官，这种事情会主动向你靠拢，你看到每个人都在整合人工智能。你是如何开始思考它如何与公司协同工作的过程的呢？
We tend to really think about the customer and start of the customer because everything we do is for our customers. So I'd say speaking to block advisors, which is the brand we go to market for with small businesses, we knew that small business owners feel pressured to make the best choices for their company. Entrepreneurs often want to know, what should they be doing now? What should they be doing in the future to optimize their taxes? And these needs really inspired our AI tax assist product, which we launched in the last month or so, which helps clients choose which helps clients who choose to do the M-taxes. So the products, you know, this product is an AI product. It helps them efficiently work through their tax preparation process, answer questions, as well as give it specific guidance on tax rules. We're still in the first innings. We're still learning a lot here. But you know, that's really how we started thinking about this.
我们很注重客户，并且从客户角度出发思考，因为我们的一切都是为了客户。所以我可以说，我们与小企业合作的品牌Block Advisors非常了解小企业主面临为公司做出最佳选择的压力。企业家通常想知道，他们现在应该做什么？未来如何优化他们的税务情况？这些需求真正启发了我们在最近一个月左右推出的AI税务助理产品，该产品帮助选择做M-税务的客户。这个AI产品帮助他们高效完成税务准备过程，回答问题，并给出税务规则方面的具体指导。我们还处在初期阶段，仍在学习很多东西。但是这就是我们开始思考这个问题的方式。
Interesting. So I'm assuming that you would have to sort of figure out a large language model of all of the rules and regulations across the entire country. Like, how did that even start? How did you even start that process?
有趣。所以我假设你必须研究整个国家的所有规则和法规，这好像是一个庞大的语言模型。那么，这是如何开始的呢？整个过程是如何启动的？
Yeah, we think about a couple of ways. Firstly, we have a partnership with Microsoft and their OpenAI service. That's helped us a lot. And we've really taken that partnership and their technology, and we've combined it with our own expertise. So we have an organization called a Tax Institute, which is also our internal think tank, which really helped us update those thousands of tax law changes that occur every year at the state level, at the federal level, at the city level. And we're making sure our model works with our in conjunction with the LLMs we have, and really it's kind of providing answers. And we've seen, you know, it's been running for about a month now, and we've seen it having an impact on our customers.
是的，我们考虑了几种方法。首先，我们与微软及其OpenAI服务建立了合作伙伴关系。这对我们非常有帮助。我们将这种合作关系和他们的技术与我们自身的专业知识相结合。因此，我们组建了一个名为“税收研究所”的组织，也是我们的内部智库，它帮助我们更新每年在州级、联邦级和市级发生的数千项税法变更。我们确保我们的模型能与我们所拥有的LLM（硕士法学学位）一起工作，真正提供问题的答案。我们已经运行了大约一个月，看到它对我们的客户产生了影响。
I'm curious about the ways that people choose to interact with H&R Block, because you've got this AI, and I'm assuming that AI maybe doesn't necessarily connect with anybody, with everybody. You know, some people really want to use AI driven tools. Some people really want to go into an H&R Block office and talk face to face with someone. What are you noticing in terms of who wants to do what? Are there demographic differences? What do you see?
我对人们选择与H&R Block互动的方式很感兴趣，因为您有这个人工智能，我猜想这个人工智能可能并不一定能与每个人建立联系。您知道，有些人真的想要使用由人工智能驱动的工具。有些人真的想要亲自进入H&R Block办公室与某人面对面交谈。您在想要做什么方面注意到什么？是否存在人口统计学上的差异？您看到了什么？
Yeah, I'd say, you know, it's less so around demographics and more about kind of customer need, and they'll want them where they are. So we think about our customers. We have customers who, what we call do DIY tax, that's you're doing your own taxes, you do it online. And that's where our AI Tax Assist is really helping them now. I can share some examples of stories I've heard already. But then you have customers who want a human. They want a human, they want their tax professional to help them. And you know, you can see them in a couple of ways. There's those who want human help, but never want to go into an office. They'll send their details. They'll work by phone, they'll work by email. It's how I get my taxes done with my tax pro for five years now, and I haven't yet met my tax pro. And it's all done virtually. It works really well. But then I can tell you that most Americans live within a five mile drive of an H&R Block office. And we have, you know, thousands of clients, millions of clients who are coming in into an office, they want to meet their tax professional, shake their hand, ask them questions, and sit with them. So we have different options for how they want to interact. And I'd say that they all cut across different demographics. It's really about the need for the client and what they're looking for.
是的，我想说，你知道的，与其说是基于人口统计学，更多的是关于客户需求，他们会想要在他们身边的地方提供服务。所以我们考虑的是我们的客户。我们有一些客户，我们称之为“自助报税”，也就是你自己在线报税。而我们的AI税收助手现在正真正帮助他们。我可以分享一些我听到的故事例子。但是也有一些客户希望有人来帮助他们。他们想要一个人类，他们希望他们的税务专业人士来帮助他们。你知道，你可以以几种方式看到他们。有些人想要人类帮助，但是从不想去办公室。他们会发送详细资料。他们通过电话，通过电子邮件工作。这就是我五年来通过我的税务专业人士处理我的税款的方式，我还没有见过他们。一切都是通过虚拟完成的，效果非常好。但是我可以告诉你，大多数美国人住在距离H&R Block办公室不超过五英里的地方。我们有成千上万的客户，数以百万计的客户来到办公室，他们希望见到他们的税务专业人士，握手、咨询问题，并与他们一起工作。所以我们为他们提供了不同的互动方式。我想说，这些方式都涵盖了不同的人口统计学。真正关键是客户的需求和他们所寻求的服务。
Well, thinking about the small business aspect of things, one of the trends that I've been following just has to be the gig economy, the rise of entrepreneurship and side hustles. It seems to me that that gets even more complicated. What types of shifts are you seeing? And what are people kind of asking for on that front?
嗯，考虑到小型企业的方面，我一直在追踪的趋势之一就是零工经济的崛起，创业精神和副业的兴起。在我看来，这似乎变得更加复杂。你注意到了哪些变化？人们在这方面有什么需求？
Yeah, that's another great question. First, I'll say yes, we've seen huge growth in this space, in the gig space, side hustle. People use different words. And I'd say one of the biggest things we've learned and one of the biggest trends I've seen is that gig workers don't know what they don't know. And let me explain what I mean by that. You know, the basic example is many of them don't realize that in the eyes of the US government that they classified as a small business. And that comes with burdens and additional reporting needs, but also a ton of opportunity as well, in terms of being able to deduct expenses, amortization, different tax things you can do. So that's been a real big trend in just showing how you're considered a small business now and how we can optimize you and your taxes is a big part of our business.
是的，这是另一个很好的问题。首先，我要说是的，我们在这个领域，即零工空间和副业方面，见证了巨大的增长。人们用不同的词语来表达。我要说我们所学到的最大的事情之一，也是我所看到的最大的趋势之一，就是零工工作者不知道他们不知道的东西。让我解释一下我的意思。你知道，一个基本的例子是，他们中的很多人并没有意识到在美国政府的眼中，他们被归类为小企业。这意味着他们需要承担额外的报告负担，但同时也有很多机会，比如能够扣除费用、分期摊销以及其他可以进行的不同税务操作。所以，对于我们的业务来说，展示你现在被视为小企业的这个趋势，并且如何优化你和你的税务问题是一个重要的部分。
How do you get the word out for people who may not know they're a small business?
如何广告宣传给那些可能不知道自己的企业规模较小的人呢？
Yeah, so firstly, it's when people come and see us in person, we have to explain to them. So like you're doing a schedule C now, you're considered a small business. I'd say a couple of things we're learning. One is when you tell someone you're considered a small business and they are doing selling someone Etsy on the side, they're like, that's not me or they're driving for Uber, they didn't see themselves as that. So what we'll often say is, hey, here is your, you know, here's your tax situation, here are the implications of that. So I think, you know, using language, they're comfortable, like, you know, your gig worker or you work for Uber and we'll talk to you in those terms as opposed to, you know, we've had some robust debates sometimes with clients, I'm not a small business.
是的，首先，当人们亲自来见我们时，我们必须向他们解释。所以比如你现在在填写C表，你就被认为是一家小企业。我觉得我们学到的一些东西是，当你告诉某人他们被认为是一家小企业时，而他们只是在Etsy上兼职销售，或者只是在开Uber，他们没有把自己当作小企业。所以我们经常会说，嘿，这是你的税务情况，这是相关的影响。所以我觉得，使用他们舒服的语言，比如你是零工工作者或者你在Uber工作，我们会用这些词语和你交流，而不是说我们有时和客户打过一些激烈的争论，我不是小企业。
I was like, well, you know, this is just how your taxes play out and how we can optimize for you. I'd also say, and I was going to say before, the other thing we help, you know, the other trend we see with gig workers is as they get, you know, bigger and grow, their lives get more sophisticated and more complicated. And there's a ton of new regulations. So for example, I don't know if you heard of it, but the new beneficial owner information guidelines that the US government actually report, they started in the last month. You know, we believe 32 million small businesses, which includes gig workers, going to have to register their business. In fact, let me just do a redo on that. Not all gig workers, but some of them will need to do that. So I don't want to scare people off here. But I can need to register their business and we help them do that with new services we have.
我觉得，你知道的，这就是你的税收如何运作和我们如何为您进行优化的方式。我还想说，在此之前，我们还帮助了其他一些事情，你知道的，我们在兼职工作者中看到的另一个趋势是随着他们的规模变大和成长，他们的生活变得更复杂、更复杂。还有许多新的法规。例如，我不知道你是否听说过美国政府最近开始报告的有关受益人信息的新指导方针。我们相信，包括兼职工作者在内的3200万家小企业将不得不注册他们的业务。实际上，让我重新解释一下。并不是所有的兼职工作者，但有些人需要这样做。所以我不想吓倒大家。但是他们可能需要注册他们的业务，我们提供了帮助，有了我们的新服务。
As they get even bigger and they become more professional, they may need bookkeeping, they may even need payroll to pay others or pay themselves. And we see some people start as a gig side hustle and it can end up in a full time job, which is just an amazing part of the American entrepreneurial experience. So what are you watching in general beyond tax prep as growth areas for H&R Block in general?
随着他们的业务规模越来越大和专业化程度的提高，他们可能需要簿记服务，甚至可能需要发放薪资给其他人或自己。我们看到一些人开始从兼职工作开始，最终发展成为全职工作，这是美国创业经历中令人惊叹的一部分。那么除了税务准备，你们在整体上还关注哪些增长领域？
Yeah, if I think of the small business area that I oversee, you know, I'd expect there to be growth in all the areas. So let me say, you know, if in small business tax or benefit from the growth of gig and side hustle workers, as those businesses mature, we expect bookkeeping and payroll to grow as the more people need that. As I mentioned you, we're just getting started with the beneficial ownership service that we have. And I think that has a lot of potential. And we're also helping our clients think through the implications of registering their business, becoming an LLC or other forms of registration. So I think all of those have a lot of headway. You know, our biggest share, relative is in tax and we keep this a lot of upside and all the other areas. So be pretty excited about the coming years and it's going to keep us all very, very busy.
是的，如果我考虑我负责的小企业领域，我期望在所有领域都会有增长。所以让我说，你知道，在小型企业的税务方面或从零工和副业工作者的增长中获益时，随着这些企业的发展，我们预计会有越来越多的人需要簿记和工资单。正如我之前提到的，我们刚刚开始提供有益所有权服务，我认为这有很大的潜力。我们还在帮助客户思考注册他们的企业、成为有限责任公司或其他形式的注册的影响。所以我觉得所有这些领域都有很大的前景。你知道，我们在税务方面占据了最大的份额，其他领域也有很多增长空间。所以对未来几年我感到非常兴奋，这将让我们非常忙碌。
As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about and the Motley Pro may have formal recommendations for or against. So don't buy or sell stocks based only on what you hear. I'm Deja Woolard. Thanks for listening. We'll see you tomorrow.
一如既往，节目中的人可能对他们谈论的股票有兴趣，Motley Pro可能会就某些股票提供正式的推荐或反对意见。因此，不要仅仅根据您所听到的内容来买卖股票。我是Deja Woolard。感谢您的收听。我们明天见。