Markets Weekly January 24, 2024

Hello my friends, today is January 20th and this is Markets Weekly. What a great week in markets, right? S&P 500 closing at record highs. And of course I don't think we're done yet. But that's not what we're going to talk about today. Today I want to talk about three things.

大家好，今天是1月20日，欢迎来到本期的Markets Weekly。市场上这是一个多么出色的一周啊！标普500指数创下历史新高。当然，我认为我们还未见顶。但今天我们不会讨论这个。今天我想谈谈三个事情。

First, I want to look at some of the recent economic data and suggest that we may be seeing signs of the re-acceleration of the US economy.

首先，我想看一下最近的经济数据，并暗示我们可能正在看到美国经济再次加速的迹象。

Secondly, there's a very interesting report in Bloomberg saying that banking regulators in the US are thinking about forcing banks to top the Fed's discount window at least once a year. Let's talk about what's driving that and how it might impact monetary policy, specifically quantitative tightening and the BTFP facility.

其次，彭博社中有一份非常有趣的报告称，美国银行监管机构正在考虑强制要求银行每年至少一次向美联储的贴现窗口交纳款项。让我们来讨论一下是什么推动了这种做法，以及它可能如何影响货币政策，特别是数量收缩和草案临时融资机构的影响。

And lastly, I want to go over some of the things that I heard from Big Bank earnings. So last week we got a bunch of big banks reporting earnings and big banks are involved in all aspects of the US economy. So they are a very good source of information. Let's listen to what they're saying about the US consumer.

最后，我想简要介绍一些我从大银行财报中听到的事情。上周我们得到了许多大型银行的财报，而大银行参与了美国经济的各个方面。因此，它们是非常好的信息来源。让我们来听听他们对美国消费者的说法。

Okay, first starting with the economic data. So let's level set a bit first. So broadly speaking, people estimate the trend growth rate of the US economy to be 1.8%.

好的，首先从经济数据开始。让我们首先统一认识一下。广义上来说，人们估计美国经济的趋势增长率为1.8%。

And last year was a very good year for the US economy. So the first and second quarter, we grew above 2%. Third quarter, we grew at a bonkers 4.9%. And the fourth quarter data isn't in yet. Many people have been speculating that the fourth quarter would be relatively weak because part of the strength of the third quarter is due to people pulling forward their expenditures.

去年对美国经济来说是非常好的一年。所以第一季度和第二季度，我们的增长超过了2%。第三季度，我们的增长达到了疯狂的4.9%。而第四季度的数据尚未出来。许多人一直在猜测第四季度可能相对较弱，因为第三季度的增长部分是因为人们提前支出。

So the Atlanta Fed has this very interesting program called Atlanta Fed Now, which is a GDP now cast. What it does is that it takes the latest data releases and uses it to estimate where GDP will print for the quarter. Now, if you look at the path of the Atlanta Fed Now, GDP now cast for fourth quarter 2023, you'll see that it started out relatively low. But over the past few weeks, it's been steadily rising. Now it's rising because the data has surprised to the upside.

亚特兰大联邦储备银行有一个非常有趣的项目，名为“亚特兰大联邦银行现状预测（Atlanta Fed Now）”，它可以预测国内生产总值（GDP）的未来发展情况。该项目利用最新的数据发布来估计季度GDP的增长。现在，如果你看一下亚特兰大联邦银行现状预测对2023年第四季度的预测路径，你会发现它一开始相对较低，但在过去几周中逐渐上升。这是因为最新的数据对GDP的预期超出了预期，所以预测值在不断上升。

For example, as we all know, the US consumer consumer spending is a huge part of the US economy. So one measure of US consumer spending is retail sales. The past week, we got retail sales data and it was good. So first, it showed acceleration from the prior period and secondly, it printed comfortably above estimates. The US consumer continues to spend.

例如，众所周知，美国消费者支出是美国经济的一个重要组成部分。因此，衡量美国消费者支出的一个指标是零售销售额。上周，我们获得了零售销售数据，数据表现良好。首先，它显示出与之前时期相比的加速度，其次，它明显高于预期。美国消费者继续消费。

And one reason they can continue to spend is because they still have jobs. So many people are looking at the labor market and worried that, you know, are we able to sustain these multi-decade low unemployment rates? And are we able to sustain a wage growth that continues to be above pre-tamemic pace? So right now a wage growth is about 5%.

他们可以继续支出的原因之一是因为他们仍有工作。很多人关注劳动力市场，并担心我们能否维持这几十年来的极低失业率？以及我们是否能够保持高于疫情前的工资增长速度？目前工资增长约为5%。

Now, one of the data points that we can look at in the labor market as a leading indicator is initial claims. So in the US, when you lose your job, what you will usually do is you go to your local state unemployment office and you file an unemployment claim because that's how you can get some unemployment insurance money. Now, initial claims this past week was really low. Now, if you look at a broader time series of this, you notice that it was looking pretty stable around a relatively low level and now it looks like it's trending downward. And that could suggest some strength in the labor market.

现在，我们可以在劳动力市场中观察到一个前导指标，那就是首次申领失业救济。因此，在美国，当你失去工作的时候，你通常会去你当地的州失业办公室申请失业救济，因为那是你可以得到一些失业保险金的途径。现在，过去一周的首次申领数字非常低。如果你看一下更长时间序列的数据，你会注意到它在一个相对较低的水平上保持相对稳定，现在它看起来正在向下趋势。这可能表明劳动力市场有一些实力。

Now, one other way to look at the state of the US economy is to look at consumer sentiment. So the US University of Michigan does this consumer confidence survey and it's basically a survey that asks consumers, how are you feeling about your financial situation and that of the economy? Now, consumer sentiment index is still lower than the highs in prior years, but if you look at it, you can see that it's steadily rising and that shouldn't be surprising. Now, people continue to have jobs, wages continue to grow, inflation is moderating and interest rates are coming down. And of course, the stock market is surging. So that all-in-all seems to be pointing to improving consumer sentiment, which of course can suggest that going forward consumers might be more confident and more comfortable spending.

现在，观察美国经济状况的另一种方式是关注消费者情绪。因此，美国密歇根大学进行了一项消费者信心调查，基本上是一项调查，询问消费者关于他们自己的财务状况和经济状况的感受如何。现在，消费者情绪指数仍低于前几年的高点，但如果你看一下，你会发现它在逐步上升，这一点并不令人意外。现在，人们继续有工作，工资继续增长，通胀趋于稳定，利率也在下降。当然，股市也在上涨。总的来说，这似乎表明消费者情绪在改善，这当然可以暗示未来消费者可能更加自信和舒适地消费。

Now, the big change this year compared to the last is that the Fed is expected to keep cutting rates. And so, one potential path for a re-acceleration of the US economy is to see these interest rates sensitive sectors re-accelerate. And as we know, mortgage rates have been coming down the past few weeks, but if you look at housing starts, single-family housing starts, you'll notice that although they declined last month, the trend is solidly upward. And as mortgage rates continue the trend lower, maybe the US housing market re-accelerates. And of course, that's going to be a boost to GDP because when you build a house, you got to hire a lot of people, you got to buy a lot of materials, you got to buy appliances and so forth. So it's very stimulative to the goods sector of the economy.

现在，与去年相比，今年的重大变化在于市场预计美联储将继续降息。因此，美国经济重新加速的一种可能途径就是看到这些对利率敏感的行业重新加速发展。众所周知，过去几周房贷利率一直在下降，但如果你看看住房开工数、单户住宅的开工数，你会注意到尽管上个月有所下降，但趋势是持续向上的。随着房贷利率不断下降，或许美国住房市场会重新加速发展。当然，这将对国内生产总值（GDP）产生推动作用，因为建造一座房子需要雇佣大量人员，购买大量材料和家电等。因此，对经济的实体部门非常有刺激作用。

So going forward, if interest rates sensitive sectors re-accelerate, we could have actually a pretty good year. And that remains to be seen. So, all in all, definitely don't really see any signs of recession. What I do see though is signs of re-acceleration. And let's follow this more closely going forward.

所以，从现在开始，如果利率敏感的行业再次加速增长，我们可能会有一个非常不错的一年。当然，这还有待观察。总的来说，我确实没有看到任何衰退的迹象。不过我看到的是重新加速的征兆。让我们更加密切地关注这个情况。

Okay, the second thing that I want to talk about is this really interesting report from Bloomberg saying that baking regulators in the US want to force banks to tap the fit discount window once a year. And now, first of all, let's talk about why that might be the case. Well, this is probably the case in response to what happened last March. So as we know, last March Silicon Valley Bank failed and it caused a panic in the regional banks. Now, at the time, Silicon Valley Bank had tremendous amounts of treasuries and agency MBS. Now, many more wondering, why don't they just borrow from the Fed? After all, it's not a credit problem. All this stuff they have is money good. It's more of a interest rate risk problem. Well, it turns out Silicon Valley Bank actually wasn't set up to use the discount window. So they basically had a liquidity run that was very fast, borrowed from the home loan banks, tried to borrow from the Fed, but wasn't set up and so wasn't able to do that in time. Which is kind of ridiculous when you think about it, the Fed, obviously, as the central bank is a lender of last resort. And yet, there are many banks, it seems, who don't even know how to tap the discount window. So the regulators realized that this was ridiculous in our forcing banks to basically be ready operationally to tap the discount window in case they run into liquidity problems, which is, I think, a really good idea.

好的，我想谈论的第二件事是一份来自彭博社的非常有趣的报告，称美国的银行监管机构希望强制银行每年至少一次通过紧急贴现窗口获取资金支持。首先，让我们讨论为什么会出现这种情况。这可能是对去年三月发生的事情的回应。我们知道，去年三月，硅谷银行破产了，这引起了地区银行的恐慌。当时，硅谷银行拥有大量的国库券和机构抵押贷款支持证券。很多人想知道，他们为什么不向美联储借款呢？毕竟，这不是一个信用问题。他们所拥有的都是可靠的资产。问题在于利率风险。事实证明，硅谷银行实际上没有准备好使用紧急贴现窗口。因此，他们发生了非常快速的流动性危机，试图从房贷银行借款，试图从美联储借款，但由于没有做好准备，无法及时实现。这种情况有些荒谬，想一想，美联储作为中央银行显然是最后的贷款人。然而，似乎有很多银行甚至不知道如何使用紧急贴现窗口。因此，监管机构意识到这种情况很荒谬，他们强制要求银行在遇到流动性问题时，从操作上准备好使用紧急贴现窗口，我认为这是一个非常好的想法。

Now, this is also going to have some implications on monetary policy. Oh, first off, secondly, of course, now traditionally, there is a stigma in tapping the discount window because the thinking is that if a bank is tapping the discount window, they're really desperate. And so they're in big trouble. And so no, no, no, bank wants to telegraph that. Now, part of the effort that the Fed has been making, not just now, but over the past recent years, has been too destigmatized to the discount window to make banks comfortable borrowing from it whenever they have trouble. That way, they would be that way, if they feel more comfortable borrowing from it, it's less likely that they will be in trouble. And we saw this in March 2020 as well. March 2020, the Fed basically forced all the huge banks to borrow from the discount window, even though they didn't need to. And publicly tell everyone that they were borrowing from the discount window, trying to lessen some of the stigma doesn't seem to have worked that well, but maybe it will work better going forward.

现在，这也将对货币政策产生一些影响。首先，当然，传统上，借用贴现窗口存在一种耻辱感，因为人们认为如果一家银行借用贴现窗口，它们确实是非常绝望的，陷入了巨大的困境。因此，没有一家银行想要传达这种信息。现在，联邦储备系统努力的一部分，不仅是现在，而是过去几年，一直在努力消除贴现窗口的耻辱感，使银行在遇到困难时舒服地从中借款。这样，他们会感到更舒适地从中借款，就不太可能陷入困境。我们也在2020年3月看到了这一点。2020年3月，美联储基本上迫使所有大型银行从贴现窗口借款，即使他们并不需要。并公开告诉所有人他们正在从贴现窗口借款，试图减轻一些耻辱感，看起来效果不太好，但也许今后会有更好的效果。

But anyway, going to the monetary policy implications of this. So this is going to have reasonable implications on both the BTFP facility and quantitative tightening. So as we talked about in a prior episode, the bank term funding program is basically lending to banks at a very low rate. Bakes are basically being able to borrow for free. And that facility is seeing increasing popularity, participation in that is surging.

但无论如何，我们来看看这对货币政策的影响。因此，这将对BTFP机构和量化紧缩产生合理的影响。正如我们在以前的一集中讨论的那样，银行长期融资计划基本上是以非常低的利率向银行借款。银行基本上可以免费借款。而且这个机构的受欢迎程度不断增加，参与其中的人也在激增。

Now, you don't really know why banks are doing this, though many people guess that it's just to do some kind of arbitrage. But if you are a regulator, you can't really just say this, we're just giving these guys free money. And so we got to shut it down. When you're when you're a regulator, and you're seeing increased participation in one of your liquidity facilities, in the back of your mind, you have to also think that maybe some people out there really, really need this. Now, I don't think that's the case. But when you're a regulator, you got to be conservative. And so when you're thinking about whether or not you should renew this facility, which is set to expire in March, well, you don't want to cut off the people who might actually need it, then you're just causing problems for yourself. But on the other hand, you don't want to be seen as giving this a lot of free money to the banking sector.

现在，你并不真的知道银行为什么这样做，尽管很多人猜测这只是为了进行某种套利。但如果你是一个监管者，你不能只是说，我们只是在给这些人免费的钱。所以我们必须关闭它。当你是一个监管者，并且看到你的流动性机制中参与人数增加时，在你的脑海中，你也必须想到可能有些人真的非常需要这个。现在，我不认为事实是这样的。但当你是一个监管者时，你必须保守一点。因此，当你考虑是否应该续签这个将在三月到期的机制时，你不希望切断那些可能真正需要它的人，否则你只会给自己招来麻烦。但另一方面，你也不想被视为给银行业提供大量免费资金。

So it seems like a good way to solve this dilemma is to re-emphasize that you have this other facility here called the discount window that any bank that really needs liquidity can borrow from it. You are encouraging them to use it. And potentially, potentially in the future might adjust the rate to make it a bit more attractive too. So it seems like regulators are emphasizing the discount window as a way to ease the transition away from the BTFP for any banks that might actually be borrowing from the BTFP because they need it. And of course, I don't think there are any, but I don't know, there are thousands of banks. So the announcement of this discount window facility, in my mind, pretty much seals the fate of the BTFP facility. And you can listen to very smart people like John Pompeo, who used to be John Pompeo, who used to be work at the FDIC. He comes away with a similar take.

所以，解决这个困境的一个好办法似乎是重新强调你们还有另外一个称为折扣窗口的设施，任何真正需要流动性的银行都可以从中借款。你们鼓励他们使用它。而且未来可能会调整利率，让它更有吸引力。所以，监管机构似乎正在强调折扣窗口作为一种缓解从BTFP过渡的方式，对于那些实际上需要借款的银行而言。当然，我不认为有这样的银行，但我不知道，银行数量有成千上万。对于我来说，这个折扣窗口设施的公告基本上决定了BTFP设施的命运。你可以听一听像约翰·庞皮欧这样非常聪明的人，他曾经在FDIC工作。他持类似观点。

But this move towards desigmatizing the discount window is going to have big implications on the path of quantitative tightening as well. So right now, the Fed is shrinking their balance sheet and drawing reserves out of the banking system. Now, the Fed wants to shrink their balance sheet, but they also want to be cautious to make sure the banking system has enough reserves. The quote unquote lowest comfortable level of reserves that many Fed people are pondering over, but no one knows for sure. John Williams of the New York Fed recently had a paper where he comes up with this economic model, guessing where it is. And you have other people who have their models and methods of knowing as well. The bottom line is the Fed is, you know, shrinking its balance sheet, but it doesn't know how far it can go. And that's a big problem.

但是这种去除贬低借贷窗口的动向也将对量化收缩的路线产生重大影响。目前，美联储正在缩减其资产负债表并从银行体系中撤出储备金。现在，美联储希望缩减其资产负债表，但他们也希望谨慎确保银行体系有足够的储备金。许多美联储人士正在思考的“最低舒适储备水平”，但没有人能确定。纽约联储的约翰·威廉姆斯最近发表了一篇论文，提出了一个经济模型来猜测储备水平。还有其他人也有各自的模型和方法来预测。问题的关键是，美联储正在缩减其资产负债表，但它不知道可以走多远。这是一个大问题。

But if they have the discount window, that is un-signatized, and everyone knows how to use, it's much less of a problem. Because at the point where the Fed might potentially be shrinking their balance sheet too much, then a bank, any bank that needs reserves can just turn around and borrow from the Fed. So the more people, the more banks that are comfortable and set up to use the discount window, the less the Fed has to worry about shrinking their balance sheet too much. And that gives the Fed a lot more room to conduct quantitative tightening. Now, I don't know if this discount window initiative is going to be in time for this round of QT, but going forward though, I think this gives the Fed a lot more flexibility to shrink their balance sheet. It will be possible to significantly shrink their balance sheet if they have this destigmatization of the discount window ready or successfully do that.

但如果他们拥有一个未经签署的贴现窗口，并且每个人都知道如何使用，那就不是太大的问题了。因为在联邦储备可能会缩减他们的资产负债表过多的情况下，任何需要储备的银行都可以向联储借款。因此，越多的人，越多已经熟悉和设置了使用贴现窗口的银行，联储就越不必担心自己的资产负债表过分缩小。这样一来，联储就有更大的空间来进行量化收紧。现在，我不知道这个贴现窗口计划是否适用于这一轮的量化紧缩，但展望未来，我认为这为联储在缩减自己的资产负债表方面提供了更多的灵活性。只要他们准备好或成功进行贴现窗口的非污名化，就有可能大幅缩减他们的资产负债表。

Okay, the last thing that I want to talk about is all the information we got from the big banks.

好的，最后我想谈论的是我们从大银行那里得到的所有信息。

So big banks have tremendous information on the economy. You know, a lot of people bank with them, get their loans from them, and the big banks of course see credit card data.

大型银行拥有大量关于经济的重要信息。你知道的，很多人选择在这些银行开户、贷款，而且这些大型银行当然也能获取信用卡数据。

So what are the big banks saying? The message seems to be one of normalization. So the Bank of America is one of my favorite banks when it comes to this because they provide a lot of good graphs that they see from their defaults and from their credit card spending. So what the Bank of America data is showing that during the pandemic, we have a surge in spending as people had a lot of money and so forth.

那么大银行们都在说些什么呢？它们似乎传达的是一种正常化的信息。所以当涉及到这个问题时，美国银行是我最喜欢的银行之一，因为他们提供了很多关于逾期贷款和信用卡消费的好图表。根据美国银行的数据显示，在疫情期间，由于人们有了很多钱等等，我们看到了消费的激增。

And now that surge in spending is plateauing towards growth rates that were consistent where with how things were pre-tent pandemic. Basically, you have a normalization in consumer activity.

现在，消费支出的激增趋势正在接近疫情前的增长率水平。基本上，消费者活动正在逐渐恢复正常。

Now the Bank of America looks at their consumer balances and notes that although consumer balances, so they're checking deposit balances, have gone down from their highs, they're still significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. And so Bank of America has a pretty upbeat look view on the consumers.

现在，美国银行审视了他们的消费者余额，并注意到尽管消费者余额（即支票存款余额）已经从高点下降，但仍显著高于疫情前的水平。因此，美国银行对消费者持乐观态度。

Now when you look at credit quality though, they also have very interesting charts on consumer credit quality and commercial credit quality. And you can see that overall, although defaults and charge-offs have ticked up slightly over the past few months, they still very much remain within historical ranges. And many banks describe this as normalization. We were at a very historically low level of defaults and losses during the pandemic. And now we're going back to historically normal levels. And that makes total sense to me.

现在当你看着信用质量时，他们也有非常有趣的关于消费者信用质量和商业信用质量的图表。你可以看到尽管最近几个月违约和核销增加了一点点，但它们仍然大多数保持在历史范围内。许多银行将此描述为正常化。在疫情期间，我们的违约和损失水平非常低，现在我们正在回归到历史上的正常水平。对我来说，这是完全合理的。

Now when we listen to what JP Morgan is saying, they're saying basically the same thing. The field of consumer is fine. And what they're seeing in their data is just a normalization of spending activity to pastes that were in line with how things were pre-pandemic. I will note though that JP Morgan was slightly more cautious on consumer balances. So from their perspective, they get the sense that a lot of the quote unquote excess savings have been spent so going forward, they want to see how things will be for the consumer.

现在当我们听到JP摩根所说的时候，他们基本上是在说同样的事情。消费领域没有问题。根据他们的数据，他们只是看到支出活动回到了与疫情前相符合的水平。不过我要注意的是，JP摩根在消费者债务方面稍微更加谨慎。所以从他们的角度来看，他们感觉很多所谓的过剩储蓄已经被花掉了，所以在未来，他们想看看消费者的情况会如何发展。

But the takeaway that I get from this, inconsistent with other measures of data that I'm looking at, is that basically we have rising default rates, but two levels that were pastes and rates that is prevailing pre-pandemic and consumers spending monitoring to pre-pandemic levels as well, basically just normalization, nothing to be worried about. And of course, as we discussed earlier, there is a potential that could re-accelerate.

但从中我所得出的结论与我正在查看的其他数据指标不一致，即我们的违约率正在上升，但两个水平分别是过去和危机前的水平，消费者支出监测也回到了危机前的水平，基本上只是恢复正常，没有什么可担心的。当然，正如我们之前讨论的，有可能会重新加速。

Now one last thing that I would note about bank earnings is that there were some people noting that bank earnings were low. And the reason for that, of course, is that the FDIC basically forced all the banks to shoulder some of the rescue costs of SBB through a special FDIC charge, and that had a big impact on bank earnings. But that's a one-off thing that we all knew were coming.

现在，我想提一件与银行收益有关的最后一件事，一些人指出银行收益较低。当然，原因是美国联邦存款保险公司基本上迫使所有银行通过特殊的FDIC费用承担SBB救助成本的一部分，这对银行收益产生了很大影响。但这仅是一次性的事情，我们都知道这将会发生。

And yeah, that's why I prepared for this week. If you're interested in my thoughts, check out my blog at fettaguy.com. And of course, if you're interested in learning more about macro and markets, check out my courses at centralbanking101.com. Talk to you guys next week.

是的，这就是为什么我为这一周做了准备。如果你对我的想法感兴趣，可以在我的博客fettaguy.com上查看。当然，如果你对宏观经济和市场更感兴趣，可以参加我在centralbanking101.com上的课程。下周再聊。