Rise of Lease Here Pay Here Dealerships

Vehicle affordability is at an all-time low. One company thinks it has the solution. It's called LHPH Capital and it stands for Least Here Pay Here. If you haven't heard of the term before, you're in for a fun episode.

车辆的负担能力处于历史最低点。一家公司认为他们有解决办法。这家公司叫做LHPH Capital，意为“最低这里付款”。如果你之前没听说过这个词，那么你将在这一期节目中获得一番乐趣。

I sat down with the CEO of LHPH Capital, Tim Lawrence, and we discussed the rise of Least Here Pay Here programs, innovating consumer payment affordability, economics of a used car lease, subprime consumer health check, and much more.

我与LHPH Capital的首席执行官Tim Lawrence坐下来，我们讨论了最近兴起的Least Here Pay Here（最先租后购）计划、创新的消费者付款能力、二手车租赁经济学、次级消费者的健康状况检查等等。

Don't forget to click subscribe so you never miss an episode. What's up everyone, this is Car dealership guy. You're listening to the Car dealership guy podcast, which is my effort to give you access to the most unbiased and transparent insights into the car market.

不要忘记点击订阅，这样你就不会错过任何一集了。大家好，我是汽车经销商。你正在收听的是《汽车经销商》的播客，我努力让你能够获取到对汽车市场最公正透明的见解。

But before we dive into the show, this episode is brought to you by CDK Global. CDK Global has been empowering nearly 15,000 dealers with the tools and technology they need to build deeper relationships with customers. Their team is keenly aware of the state of dealership technology and while many vendors promise seamless experiences between your CRM, DMS, digital retail, and fixed ops, most of these bolt-on solutions tend to break workflows and cause more harm than good. That is why CDK has launched a new dealership experience platform.

但在我们深入讨论节目之前，本集由CDK Global赞助。CDK Global为将近15,000家经销商提供工具和技术，帮助他们与客户建立更深入的关系。他们的团队非常了解经销商技术的现状，尽管许多供应商承诺在您的CRM、DMS、数字零售和固定运营之间提供无缝体验，但大多数这些附加解决方案往往会破坏工作流程，带来更多危害。这就是为什么CDK推出了新的经销商体验平台的原因。

This new integrated software consists of everything you need to operate a dealership officially while delivering an unparalleled experience to your customers. Basically, everything working together, not separate, one system to run your dealership as opposed to 10. CDK developed it with an outside-in approach listening to dealers every step of the way. You can learn more about CDK's dealership experience platform by visiting CDKGlobal.com slash DXP or clicking the link in the show notes below.

这款全新的综合软件包含了您在经营一家正式经销商时所需的一切，同时为您的客户提供无与伦比的体验。基本上，所有功能一体化，而不是分散的，只需一个系统来运营您的经销商，而不是十个。CDK根据外部需求，密切听取经销商的意见，在每个步骤中进行了开发。您可以访问CDKGlobal.com/ DXP 或点击下方节目注释中的链接，了解更多关于CDK经销商体验平台的信息。

This episode is also brought to you by Auto-Fi. Auto-Fi helps progressive dealers like you sell smarter, not harder on your dealership website and now in your showroom too. Auto-Fi solves the everyday problems dealers actually face like bottlenecks at the sales desk, customer distrust, and decision overload. And their all new showroom solution includes deal estimation, desking, lender routing, and an F&I menu. All of this in one powerful platform that bridges the gap between the CRM and the DMS.

本集节目也由Auto-Fi为您带来。Auto-Fi帮助像您这样的进步型经销商在您的经销商网站和展厅中更加智能地销售，而不是更加努力。Auto-Fi解决了经销商实际面临的日常问题，如销售桌面的瓶颈、客户的不信任和决策过载。而他们全新的展厅解决方案包括交易估算、交易桌面、贷款人路由和F&I菜单。所有这些功能都集于一个强大的平台中，弥合了CRM和DMS之间的差距。

Dealerships with Auto-Fi can manage the floor more efficiently, fast-track the yes, and make better lender decisions enabling them to sell cars faster with higher satisfaction and more profit. In fact, deals with Auto-Fi take an average of 28 minutes from customer check into loan approval and dealers are making $411 more backend PVR per deal. Go to Auto-Fi.com slash CDG to learn more. That's Auto-Fi.com slash CDG and start selling smarter today.

拥有Auto-Fi的经销商可以更高效地管理展厅，快速通过审批，并做出更好的借贷决策，使他们能够更快地以更高满意度和更高利润销售汽车。事实上，与Auto-Fi合作的交易平均只需要28分钟，从客户检查到贷款批准，并且经销商每笔交易的后台PVR收入增加了411美元。请访问Auto-Fi.com/CDG了解更多。这是Auto-Fi.com/CDG，并立即开始更加智能地销售吧。

So, Tim, tell me, going from marriage counseling to a career in sales, how did this happen?

所以，Tim，告诉我，从婚姻咨询到销售事业，这是怎么发生的？

Well, my father-in-law thought I was crazy to do it, but it was really out of necessity. I was newly married, maybe a year and a half in, starting to build a private practice and marriage and family therapy. We just couldn't really afford our monthly nut.

嗯，我的岳父认为我这样做很疯狂，但其实是出于无奈。那时我刚结婚，可能过了一年半左右，开始建立一个私人诊所从事婚姻和家庭治疗。我们实在支付不起每月的开销。

So, one of my good friends had just gotten into medical device sales and he was in the operating room helping the surgeons. It was really fascinating to me. He was making good money. I just thought, well, at least for now, that could be something to help get us through it, but just table the marriage and family therapy.

所以，我有一个很好的朋友刚刚进入了医疗设备销售行业，他在手术室帮助外科医生。这对我来说真的很有吸引力。他赚了不少钱。我只是想，至少目前来说，这可能是帮助我们度过难关的办法，但婚姻和家庭治疗的计划暂时搁置。

I got hired by a company called BioMet, a large organization and was immediately captivated by it. Just loved it, loved the sales side, the education side, and then continued to work my way up to manager, area manager, area vice president and so on. It was great. The rest is history.

我被一家名叫BioMet的大公司聘用，立刻被它所吸引。我非常喜欢销售和教育方面的工作，并且逐渐晋升为经理、区域经理、区域副总裁等职位。一切都非常棒。剩下的就是历史了。

But walk me through, today you're running, you're the CEO of large leasing company, a focus on use car space. Couldn't be more of a stark difference from marriage counseling. So, I'm just curious and I understand the driver there, what led you initially to go into marriage counseling? Like why? What was that innate desire? Why did you want to do that?

走过来和我讲讲，今天你是一家大型汽车租赁公司的首席执行官，专注于二手车领域。这与婚姻咨询的工作完全不同，真是大相径庭。所以，我只是好奇，我明白那个驱动力，但是最初是什么导致你从事婚姻咨询的？为什么？那种内在的渴望是什么样的？你为什么想要这样做？

Yeah. So, originally, I wanted to be a pastor. So I went into college thinking, I'm going to be a pastor and about two years in, I realized that, well, it's really the one-on-one relationships that are the most meaningful. If I can help somebody through a difficult time, then I think I'm adding value to their life. And so, halfway in, I had already had a major in theology, but so I minored in psychology and then after that, did post-graduate in psychology.

是的。所以，最初，我想成为一名牧师。所以我进入大学时想着，我要成为一名牧师，大约两年后，我意识到，实际上是一对一的关系最有意义。如果我能帮助别人度过困难时期，那么我认为我为他们的生活增加了价值。所以，在上半学期结束时，我已经主修了神学，然后我辅修了心理学，之后又进行了心理学的研究生课程。

So, now, instead of counseling marriages, you're counseling people and leasing cars. Let's go, baby.

所以，现在你不再咨询婚姻问题，而是咨询人们并租赁汽车了。走吧，宝贝。

Yeah, that's right. And, you know, I can't tell you how valuable it's been to me in every part of my business life.

是的，没错。而且你知道，我无法向你形容它在我的商业生活的每个领域中是多么有价值。

Like, how so? Tell me. I'm curious.

像怎样？告诉我。我很好奇。

So, first, I think managing your team, you get all these different personalities and conflicts that come up between personalities and really trying to help coach people through it, not so that I'm the one who's solving the problem for them, but to really help them be empowered to improve their relationship with their peer. So, I think that's a big part. I think also maintaining my cool in certain situations has been really valuable because early on when I was doing MFT stuff, it got pretty heated with couples and families. And I had to learn early on how to just stay cool that you'll figure out a way through this and you'll be able to help them. And so, building that confidence, I think, was really helpful as well.

首先，我认为管理团队时，你会遇到各种不同的个性和个性之间的冲突，而我真的很努力地帮助教练他们，不是为了我解决问题，而是真正帮助他们有能力改善与同事的关系。所以，我认为这是一个很重要的部分。另外，我认为在某些情况下保持冷静也非常重要，因为在我刚做婚姻和家庭治疗时，与夫妻和家庭之间的问题会变得非常激烈。我必须从一开始就学会保持冷静，相信你能找到解决方法并能够帮助他们。因此，建立这种自信心也非常有帮助。

Yeah, we used to, I remember coming up in the dealership world, we used to have this saying in the dealership called T-Mobile Voice. And if someone, when you're in retail, naturally in retail, you have crazy things that happen. And I remember the first time I discovered that one of our managers was carrying, was strapped, having gone on him. And I was really bizarre. I was like, wait, what? And I was much younger, mind you. But I just remember that. I was like, interesting. I was like, so this is the type of world we're in. And this wasn't in a terrible area or anything, but maybe from where he came from previously. Needless to say, T-Mobile Voice, keep it calm, keep it cool. I like it, keep it cool.

是的，我记得在经销商界经历的时候，我们经常在经销商里有一个叫做T-Mobile Voice的说法。如果有人，当你在零售业中，自然会发生一些疯狂的事情。我记得第一次发现我们的一个经理随身携带了一把枪的时候，真的很离奇。我当时很惊讶，说不出话来。而且我当时还很年轻。但我一直记得这件事。我觉得很有意思。所以我就想，原来我们生活在这样一个世界中。虽然那个地区并不糟糕，但也许是他以前来自的地方有所差异吧。不用说了，T-Mobile Voice，保持冷静，保持冷静。我喜欢，保持冷静。

That's what we said. And one other thing I'll mention is, I don't remember where I read this, but someone posted a really interesting article about if you show the customer that you are just as upset, if not more upset than them about somebody that happened to them, they suddenly toned down. They give someone coming in, freaking out at you, something happened. Who knows what? It could be nothing, it could be something big. But regardless, if you give them that feeling back that you take it more seriously than them, suddenly they take a step back to like, okay, whoa, this person gets it. I want to be heard and I'm being heard. Yeah. No, I think that's a really good point that just covers basically all grounds is people really want to feel heard and seen. So if you can do that in your personal or professional life, it's so helpful.

我们就是这么说的。还有一件事我想提一下，虽然我不记得在哪里看到的，但有人发布了一篇非常有趣的文章，说如果你向客户表明你对他们发生的事情感到非常痛心甚至比他们更痛心，他们会突然安静下来。他们可能会进来，对你发火，说发生了某些事情，谁知道是什么呢？可能是小事，也可能是大事。但无论如何，如果你能传达给他们这种比他们更认真对待的感觉，突然间他们就会退后一步，好像在想："哇，这个人明白了"。我想要被倾听，而我正在被倾听。是的，我认为这是一个非常好的观点，它基本上涵盖了所有方面，人们真的想要被倾听和被看到。所以，如果你在个人或职业生活中能做到这一点，那将非常有帮助。

Yeah. So that's lessons from the dealership world. Can you just give us a background on what is Lisa here pay here? What do you guys actually do? What's the business model?

是的。那就是经销商世界的教训。你能给我们介绍一下“Lisa here pay here”是什么背景吗？你们实际上做什么？你们的商业模式是什么？

Yeah. So the Lisa here pay here is essentially an in-house financing product. And it's targeted to a demographic of consumers that have little or poor credit. And that could be based off of any number of life experiences or just lack of building credit and who's not bankable. And so because this consumer has very little options, they'll likely go into a dealership and try to figure out a way to finance the vehicle. The dealership has no other options for them. So the dealer provides the financing themselves. And that's really where the term comes from by here pay here and lease here pay here. You're buying the vehicle there and then you're paying for it there or you're leasing it there and then you're paying for it there. And decades ago, it is really where it came from. And it's the consumer used to come in weekly with their cash payment and give it to the dealership. And then the dealership could take a look at the vehicle and make sure that it was still okay, that you were still breathing and that you would probably be back next week.

嗯，Lisa车行的“在这里买车，在这里付款”基本上是一种公司内部融资产品。它的目标消费群体是信用较差或很少的人群，可能是由于各种生活经历或缺乏建立信用所致，无法从银行贷款。因此，由于这类消费者的选择非常有限，他们很可能会去汽车经销商那里寻求汽车融资的方法。然而，汽车经销商并没有其他选择，所以就由经销商提供融资。这就是“在这里买车，在这里付款”和“在这里租车，在这里付款”这个术语的来源。你在那里购买汽车，然后在那里付款，或者你在那里租车，然后在那里付款。几十年前，这实际上就是它的来源。过去，消费者每周都要拿着现金付款到经销商那里，并且经销商还要检查车辆是否正常，确保你仍然活着，并且下周还会再来。

Yeah, I mean, up until very recently, I saw dealers advertising weekly payments just to kind of show a low monthly payment. I want to say two really important distinctions for a second and please push back if I'm incorrect here. So the way consumers can, this is a used car lease that consumers can do through a dealership. That is where, that is the spoke. If I want to leverage your program as a consumer, I go to a dealership and that's where I can do a used car lease.

是的，我是说，直到最近，我看到经销商在广告中进行每周付款的宣传，只是为了显示一个低月付款。我想暂时讨论两个非常重要的区别，如果我这里有错，请提出异议。消费者可以通过经销商来进行二手车租赁，这就是其中的一个关键点。如果我作为消费者想要利用您的项目，我会去经销商那里进行二手车租赁。

That's right. Exactly.

没错，完全正确。

Great. All right. And then the second thing is buy your pay here. Like how is this different from by here pay here? And for anyone that's listening, that's not familiar with the term. And I'm going to assume it's not most people, but buy your pay here, meaning you go to buy a used car or a car from a dealer and they are the lender essentially for one reason or another, the dealer is the lender that is actually financing that loan for you. And you pay your monthly payment to the dealer. So how are you different from just a traditional buy your pay here on the lender side?

非常好。好的。然后第二个问题是通过这种方式购买您的付款。这和直接在这里付款有什么不同？对于那些不熟悉这个术语的人来说，我假设大多数人都不熟悉，通过这种方式购买您的付款意味着您去买一辆二手车或者从经销商那里购买一辆车，而这个经销商基本上就是您的贷款人，不管出于什么原因，这个经销商实际上为您提供贷款。您每月向经销商支付贷款还款。那么，您在贷款人的角色上与传统的通过这种方式购买有何不同呢？

So it essentially is the same thing, but we're the intermediary. So we lend money to the dealership so that they can have a lease here pay here program. And the leases that they end up putting out have been financed by us. And that's also our collateral. Most of these dealerships, they don't have the financing themselves to be able to have 500 lease contracts out on the street or 1000 because it costs them the basically the cost of the vehicle each time they're putting a lease contract out. And that's really cash intensive. So that might cost them five million or 10 million dollars. So instead they would borrow a portion of that from us combined with their own money. And then that allows them to be the lender.

因此，基本上是同样的事情，但我们是中间人。所以我们向经销商借钱，以便他们能够提供这里付这里的租赁计划。他们最终提供的租赁合同都是由我们融资的，这也是我们的抵押品。大多数经销商自己没有足够的资金能够在市场上有500个或1000个租赁合同，因为每次他们提供一个租赁合同，费用基本上等于车辆的成本。这确实需要投入大量现金。因此，他们会从我们这里借入一部分资金，再加上他们自己的资金。这样他们就能够成为贷款人。

Got it. So me as a dealer, you come to me, you put up the money. Do you do the underwriting? I approve your underwriting. And then that's the box that you're going to continue to underwrite on. And that really helps streamline it. So then that gives you the autonomy as a dealership to do the underwriting then and there. And you don't have to make any phone calls to me. There's nothing that I'm going to approve at the time that the consumer is with you. So you can desk a deal a lot faster as long as you know your own criteria and it lands within that box, then it's solely up to you to make that decision based off of that criteria.

懂了。所以你作为一个经销商，你来找我，你拿出钱。你负责承销吗？我批准你的承销。然后那就是你将继续承销的范围。这真的有助于简化流程。这样，作为一个经销商，你可以立即进行承销，无需给我打电话。在消费者与你在一起的时候，我不需要批准任何事情。只要你了解自己的标准，并且交易符合这些标准，那么决定就完全由你基于这些标准来做。

All right. So I know my audience. There's two main main questions in people's minds right now. One of them is consumer focused. One of them is dealer focused. All right. Let's start with the consumer focus. Is this detrimental to the consumer? Right? Like is it does this put the consumer in a worse position than they would otherwise be with alone? Like what's the what's the cost benefit here? I think it's totally the opposite. And the reasons are if you're the consumer then by leasing the vehicle you're likely going to have a shorter term which is going to promote a successful transaction the longer the term the more likelihood that you're going to have some sort of mechanical failure that you're responsible for and then that's going to put you in a tougher situation to be able to get back on track to both cover the expenses of the mechanical failure and to maintain your payments. So as a consumer you're essentially test driving the vehicle over the period of the least whether that's 24, 36 or 42 or 48 months and then you get to really know that vehicle. Is this something I want or can I upgrade once this transaction is over? And by having that option it really does help you in both those fronts.

好的。所以我了解我的受众。现在人们心中有两个主要问题。其中之一是以消费者为重点。另一个是以经销商为重点。好的。我们先从消费者的角度来谈。这对消费者来说有害吗？就是说，这会让消费者处于比独自购买时更糟糕的位置吗？这里的成本和效益如何？我认为完全相反。原因是，如果你是消费者，通过租赁车辆，你很可能会有较短的租期，这将促使交易成功。租期越长，你负责的机械故障的可能性就越大，这会让你处于更困境的情况，无法支付机械故障的费用，并维持你的支付。所以作为消费者，你实际上是在租赁期内对车辆进行试驾，无论是24个月、36个月、42个月还是48个月，然后你就可以真正了解这辆车。这是我想要的东西，还是一旦这次交易结束，我可以升级？通过这种选择，你在这两方面真的会得到帮助。

Got it. So when I'm finished with that vehicle I send it back to the dealer then does the dealer have the option then to buy it back or how does that or not buy it back I guess just keep it how does that work?

明白了。那么，当我完成修理那辆车后，我会将其送回给经销商，然后经销商是否有购买它的选择呢？或者他们是否不购买它，只是将其保留？这是怎么回事？

Yeah. So from the dealer's perspective it's your vehicle you're the owner of it and you've been really renting it out over the course of the contract and so then if you can reassess it is it in good enough condition for me to recycle it and put it back out on the lot and do either a 24 month lease or even shorter lease or should I wholesale it have you know ACV combined pick it up or ship it out to auction.

是的。因此，从经销商的角度来看，这辆车是你的，你是车主，并且在合同期间一直在租用它。因此，如果你可以重新评估，那么它的状况是否足够好，我可以将其回收并再次放到车库中，进行24个月的租赁，甚至更短的租赁，或者是否应该批发出去，通过ACV的组合进行接收或者运往拍卖会。

So the second question that I had in mind that I think you know is going through people's head and it's definitely going through mine is how do you make money and then how do the dealers make money here like give us like the you know give us the nitty gritty of like the economics of how this works.

我心里所想的第二个问题是，我认为你也知道，并且也是人们心头疑惑的问题，那就是你们是如何赚钱的，以及经销商在这里是如何赚钱的？能不能详细给我们解释一下这个项目的经济学运作细节呢？

Yeah. I see smiling. I totally get it. It's my favorite part. Economics I love that. So we make money off of interest and fees because we're the intermediary we're essentially the bank but because this is a higher risk segment we're borrowing a portion of our money from syndication of banks and other financial partners to be able to lend it to the dealer. So because we're here we're able to create really a new niche for dealers who typically wouldn't be able to get financing for a lease or pay your program or a buy your pay your program then we offer the financing to the dealer and it's going to have a little bit more of a margin in it than if you were borrowing directly from let's say Wells Fargo and that's because that's how we're able to stay in business and create that longer term continuity for you as the dealer and then when you're the dealer so the way that our program works is you're you're essentially borrowing on the cost of the vehicle let's say the cost is $10,000 and you put a thousand reconditioning so that's $11,000 and we set up a principal and interest amortizing alone with you on that cost down to zero over the same term as the lease so let's say it's 42 months we're going to amortize $11,000 down to zero over that 42 months and you put out a 42 month lease with your consumer your payment to us let's say it's $250 a month and you're collecting $450 from your consumer because you put in a warranty and you're going to make sure that that vehicle runs so as you collect. that $450 you then pay us that $250 and you have that cash cushion spread of operating cash for you while you're paying down the vehicle with us it creates an asset for you that you can then either sell or recycle later.

是的，我明白你在微笑。我完全理解。那是我最喜欢的部分。经济学，我热爱它。所以我们通过利息和费用赚钱，因为我们是中间人，基本上就像银行。但由于这是一个更高风险的领域，我们从银行和其他金融合作伙伴的联合融资中借用一部分资金，以便将其借给经销商。所以因为我们在这里，我们能够为经销商创造一个新的利基市场，通常无法获得租赁金融或买车付款计划，然后我们向经销商提供融资，并且这将具有比如果您直接从威尔斯·法戈（Wells Fargo）借款时更高的利润空间，这是因为这样我们才能维持业务并为您作为经销商创建更长期的持续性。接下来，当您是经销商时，我们的计划工作方式是，您本质上是在借用车辆成本，假设成本为10000美元，您进行了一次1000美元的重新调整，那就是11000美元，我们与您一起建立一个逐渐偿还的本金和利息分期贷款，在与租赁周期相同的时间内将11000美元的贷款偿还为零，假设为42个月，我们将在这42个月内将11000美元偿还为零，然后您与您的消费者签订42个月的租赁合同，您向我们支付250美元，您从消费者那里收取450美元，因为您提供了保修，并确保这辆车正常运行。在您收取了450美元后，您支付我们250美元，并且您在与我们一起还款期间有一个现金垫。这为您创建了一个资产，您可以之后出售或回收。

Got it so I got so I basically I get a dividend but I'm not I'm not getting that like upfront windfall of like you know a three grand deal or whatever maybe I'm just not getting got it. I'd have to imagine how many dealers do you work with I mean are you nationwide? We are we're in 17 states right now happy to enter new states as well. So you're looking to expand what are you seeing right now this is I'm just curious about you know what you're able to see in terms of performance what are you seeing from a consumer perspective right now are you seeing an uptick in you know vehicles being repossessed or like what are these like trends that you're seeing right there happening? Yeah seeing very slight increase in repossessions but here's what's on my mind is we haven't really seen delinquency get worse all that much and in our portfolio with our dealers but I'm anticipating that that it will this quarter and before tax season so I'm really curious if it's going to continue to deteriorate as a lot of the other subprime data is showing. I think we expect delinquencies to get worse but we haven't seen it yet we're just basically a pre pandemic levels and what's how is this going to play out. I can't imagine that it wouldn't get worse based off of inflation and consumer savings decreasing there's just less cash available to be able to support all of these auto payments. When you say you haven't seen it get worse do you mean you haven't seen it get worse than 2019 levels or do you mean it hasn't been getting worse than 2021 levels. Over the last 12 months it hasn't gotten worse and it seems like we're at about where we were in 2019.

明白了，所以基本上我可以获得股息，但我不会像一笔三千美元的交易那样从中获利，也许我只是没有获取到这样的机会。我想象一下，你们与多少个经销商合作，国家范围内吗？是的，我们目前在17个州有业务，并且乐意进入新的州份。所以你们正在寻求扩张，现在有什么情况？我只是好奇，你们从消费者的角度所能看到的表现是什么，你们是否看到了汽车被收回的增长趋势或者其他什么趋势？是的，我们看到了汽车被收回的轻微增长，但我在想的是我们并没有看到逾期情况恶化，至少在我们与经销商的合作中，但我预计在本季度和税务季节之前会恶化，所以我真的很好奇，如果像其他次贷数据所显示的那样会不会继续恶化。我认为我们预计逾期情况会恶化，但我们还没有看到，我们只是基本上回到了疫情前的水平，这将会如何发展。我无法想象它不会恶化，通货膨胀和消费者储蓄的减少意味着可用于支持所有这些汽车付款的现金更少。当你说你没有看到情况变得更糟，是指你没有看到它比2019年的水平更糟，还是说它并没有比2021年的水平更糟？在过去的12个月里，情况没有变得更糟，看起来我们和2019年差不多。

How do you think about EVs putting numbers on right now especially EVs this year have seen massive volatility. How are you working through that how are you navigating that landscape it seems like many dealers I'm speaking with are really struggling with just forecasting given the volatility and frankly I mean it's to be expected we're still at like their early point of adoption cycle for electric vehicles so it doesn't surprise me that we're kind of you know hitting some bumps in the road and some volatility needless to say though I mean people have to respond to that like how are you handling that.

你现在对电动汽车的发展前景有什么看法，尤其是今年电动汽车市场的巨大波动。你们是如何应对这一情况，如何在这个行业中驾驭这一波动的局势。我发现很多经销商在预测市场时都面临相当大的困难，毕竟电动汽车的普及阶段还很早，波动是可以预料的。不过，人们必须对此做出应对，你们是如何处理这种情况的呢？

We're fortunate enough to where we there's really not that much EV penetration in this market market segment but I think no doubt it's going to eventually reach this remarketing segment I mean the target ACB for dealers in this type of program are usually in between 8,000 and 14,000 from auction that would make a retail price probably in the 16,000 to 20,000 and so there's not a lot of EVs that would reach that at this point because they've been so expensive in the past and there's just not that long of a like of a life cycle yet for these EVs to reach there.

我们很幸运，因为在这个市场细分领域，电动汽车的渗透率并不高，但我毫不怀疑它最终将进入二手车销售市场。这类销售项目中，经销商的目标ACB通常在8,000到14,000之间，这样的价格定位可能会使零售价在16,000到20,000之间。因此，目前还没有很多电动汽车能达到这个价格范围，因为过去它们价格昂贵，并且这些电动汽车的使用寿命也还不够长。

Got it so and that makes sense I mean subprime it's definitely not I don't know the exact percentage but definitely not much penetration of EVs and subprime market. The interesting thing with EVs is that it sure seems like they're going to be economical at some point just because of the way that S curves work and really what Tesla's done to the EV market and if they're gonna end up being successful with their $25,000 economical model if EVs really can last that 500,000 to a million miles then it sure is gonna make a lot of sense to have a lot of EVs and in subprime especially if you're a dealer who has at least your pay here program you want vehicles that are gonna last longer because it becomes an asset for you longer than as you said getting a dividend or an annuity payment from.

明白了，这也很有道理。我的意思是次贷绝对不会有很高的电动汽车渗透率，我不知道具体的百分比，但肯定不会很高。电动汽车的有趣之处在于，它们似乎在某个时间点上将变得经济实惠，这是因为S型曲线的工作方式，以及特斯拉对电动汽车市场所做的努力。如果特斯拉通过他们的经济型车型（售价25000美元）取得成功，如果电动汽车真的能够行驶50万到100万英里，那么拥有大量电动汽车将变得非常有意义，特别是在次贷市场。特别是如果你是一个至少有自己的自助付款计划的经销商，你需要拥有更持久的车辆，因为它们会成为你的资产，比起你所说的分红或年金付款更久。

How have you been able to like break into the market you know given I always think about like our industry has such tight margins right and like it's a it's a pretty big proposition to ask a dealer hey don't make you know whatever three grand up front today rather wait make more but it's gonna be over three years. How do you like cross that how do you cross that chasm what do you do?

你是怎么成功进入市场的呢？毕竟，我们所在的行业利润空间非常小，要求经销商不再立即获得3000美元的收益，而选择等待三年以获取更多收入，这确实是个巨大的挑战。你是如何跨越这个鸿沟的？你采取了哪些措施？

Yeah so I think there's two parts to this the first is through education when I first started not that many people knew what least your pay here was or subprime leasing however you want to characterize it and we made a big focus from the beginning on education so if you look at our website we have tons of information we do annual conferences we try to get in with speakers at conferences so that we can help educate people on the benefits and really what it is so that was the first part is just creating that awareness of what this in-house financing product is.

是的，我认为这个问题有两个方面。首先，通过教育。当我刚开始时，并不是很多人了解“最小租金付款”或次级租赁，无论你如何称之，所以我们从一开始就非常注重教育。如果你浏览我们的网站，你会发现我们有大量的信息，我们每年举办会议，我们努力与会议上的发言人接触，以便帮助人们了解这种内部融资产品的好处，以及它到底是什么。所以，第一部分就是创造这种内部融资产品的意识。

The second part is that it's really been other dealers that successes their successes have been able to illustrate that for us because it's great if you can get two thousand three thousand a copy on the short term but if that same vehicle can earn you ten thousand or fifteen thousand over the life of its cycle then that can that can make you quite a bit of money if your portfolio is five hundred leases a thousand leases three thousand leases now all of a sudden as a dealership you're both dealer and lender and so it's it's really just adding in a new segment to your business as long as you do it well and and look at it as an actual lender then you could have pretty good success.

第二部分是其他经销商的成功为我们证明了这一点，因为如果你能够在短期内获得两三千辆的销售量，那将是很棒的，但如果同一辆车能在整个生命周期内为你赚取一万或一万五千辆的销售量，那么你的投资组合中有五百份、一千份或三千份租赁合同，突然间你既是经销商又是贷款人，这样就为你的企业添加了一个新的业务领域，只要你能做得好，并将其视为一家真正的贷款机构，那么你就能取得相当大的成功。

I got to ask like are you guys did you guys pioneer this model I mean who else who else is doing this exact model in the market.

我得问一问，你们是不是开创了这个模式？我是说市场上还有谁在做和这个完全相同的模式。

So we didn't dealerships have been doing leasing it's just have been a very small small margin of dealers but maybe for the last 20 years there have been dealers doing lease here pay here maybe 30 years but what we did was we helped commercialize it more so that it's more accessible to dealers that otherwise wouldn't have this the ability to get capital like this so some of the larger dealers previously worked with like Wells Fargo to get their financing or a large regional bank and but for the normal dealer it wasn't accessible.

所以我们并不是说经销商一直在进行租赁，只是一小部分经销商在进行这项业务，可能过去20年来有一些经销商在这里进行租赁，可能30年来一直如此，但我们所做的是更加商业化，让更多经销商能够获得这种融资的能力，这样对于那些本来无法获得这种融资能力的经销商来说更加容易。之前一些大型经销商可能与威尔斯·法戈（Wells Fargo）或一家大型地区银行合作获得融资，但对普通经销商来说这并不可行。

What are that what are the actual economics for the dealer when it's all said and done like what what's the IRR on the loan over three years you know when it's all said and done like what are you seeing what is the average. We typically see a dealer making eight to ten thousand on each vehicle over the span of the vehicle's life so it's that's about five years I think give or take. I'm curious how it how it stacks up as just an investment in a portfolio period.

当一切都说完了，实际上像那样，对经销商来说是怎样的经济效益？比如，贷款在三年内的内部回报率是多少？你知道一切都说完了后，你看到了什么？平均来说是多少。我们通常看到经销商在车辆寿命期间每辆车赚取八到一万美元左右，大约是五年左右。我很好奇作为投资组合中的一项投资，它如何表现。

Yeah it's going to vary by dealer because there there are so many variables to this depending on the ACB of the vehicle. So if the ACB of the vehicle is higher ACB and the dealership has the infrastructure to have a really good service center and they're adding. on a warranty and maybe let's say that they're through the warranty they have their own captive reinsurance company then the internal rate of return is going to be much higher for that dealer because they're they're able to keep that vehicle out on the street longer they have the service ability to maintain that annuity and then they're also on the back end getting the reinsurance money that has its own tax benefits.

嗯，这会根据经销商而有所不同，因为这取决于车辆的ACB有很多因素。所以如果车辆的ACB较高，经销商有良好的服务中心基础设施，并且他们提供了保修，也让我们假设他们通过拥有自己的再保险公司提供了保修，那么内部回报率对于该经销商来说将会更高，因为他们能够让该车辆更长时间地在街上行驶，他们有维护该年金的服务能力，并且他们还在后端获得再保险金，这具有自身的税收优惠。

Yeah so you mentioned service how does how does all this play into to this model. Well look for consumers for dealers like who's accountable for service here. So if you're the consumer and it's not in your lease contract then it's just like as if you bought the vehicle and you're responsible for it a lot of our dealers add in warranty into the lease contract and the unique thing about a lease is that you if it's part of your program from a dealership standpoint you can just put the warranty as part of the rent charge because as long as you do it consistently across the board and it's not one of the ancillary products that's an add-in. So it's different if you offer it after the fact then it's an ancillary product. If it's part of your program and it's on every vehicle and every lease contract then then the warranty is there and what what that does if you have your own service center is it it really does increase the likelihood of it going to term and it increases the likelihood of you being able to recycle those vehicles again and again.

嗯，你提到了服务，那么这一切如何与这个模式相契合呢？好吧，对于消费者和经销商来说，谁来对服务负责呢？所以，如果你是消费者，而在你的租赁合同中没有包含服务，那就好像你买了这辆车一样，你需要为其负责。我们很多经销商会在租赁合同中增加保修服务，而租赁的独特之处在于，如果从经销商的角度来看，将保修作为租金的一部分很容易，只要你在所有车辆和租赁合同上都如此，而不是作为附加产品。如果你是在事后提供保修，那就是附加产品了。如果它是你计划中的一部分，并且在每辆车和每个租赁合同上都有，那么保修就在那里。如果你有自己的服务中心，这样做确实会增加租赁期限，并增加你能够重复利用这些车辆的可能性。

How do you think about given that how do you think about like your business and you know I don't know how closely been following just but like that you know there I want to say that there's no new cars that were sold in the last quarter transacted below 20k right like the affordability is like a serious crisis and anyway so when you think about this right like I have to imagine this presents an opportunity for you right but like do you do you think that you know are we just headed to a point where you know there's that saying all over twitter you won't own anything you'll be happy or however that goes like is that the world we're in like because affordability is just so out of touch like how do you how do you just balance that with the fact that you know new cars I mean you can't even get anything under 20k anymore realistically.

你对此事有何看法，考虑到你的业务情况以及我不清楚你是否密切关注，但无论如何，我想说的是，上个季度没有新的汽车售出价格低于2万美元，这个问题的严重性就像是一场危机。那么当你思考这个问题的时候，我必须想象这对你来说是一个机会，但是你认为我们是否正在走向那种“你将不再拥有任何东西，但你会感到幸福”的世界，因为现实中的汽车价格已经超出了20,000美元的范围，你如何平衡这一点呢？

Yeah I think there has to be a tipping point at some at some level and I think organizations like Tesla are going to have a big advantage to that because the more efficient that the OEMs are like Tesla they can produce vehicles that cost a lot less which is going to meet that market demand that has really been abandoned or put on the shelf as of right now and the impact of that is making things harder on the use car market because it keeps the level of the prices a little bit elevated because there's less newer cars and same for affordability it's like back in during the financial crisis in 2009 was the least amount of new cars that were manufactured and what that did by 2017 and 2018 is it made it so much harder for dealerships like the ones that we finance to acquire inventory that was actually valuable because those were the there was the most scarcity during those years and so it meant that those vehicles that they were targeting were overpriced for the actual value that they were providing to the consumers so it'll be interesting to see what happens in the next five to ten years based off of what's happened through covid and manufacturing but back to OEMs and these lower these lower cost markets I think that this is like a Tony Siba thing I don't know if you follow him or not so Tony Siba is a is a futurist he's he is all about technology and electric vehicles and autonomous electric vehicles and so we we brought him into our office as a consultant to get his his thoughts as we're trying to game plan our next five to ten years and what he said was that based off of how economic S-curves work is electric vehicles are no doubt going to be a huge disruptor to ice vehicles purely based on economics because if those vehicles do actually last 500,000 and 1 million miles and they cost less because there's only 200 working parts in an in an EV motor versus 2000 to we want 1 million miles 1 million 1 million is this the theory out there this is the this is the theory out there I think Tesla is probably the only manufacturer that could produce a vehicle like that at this point but if let's say Tesla does produce their economic $25,000 vehicle that can make it 500,000 to a million miles that's going to be a game changer on this market segment yeah

是的，我认为在某个程度上必须存在一个临界点，而像特斯拉这样的组织将在这方面具有很大的优势，因为与特斯拉这样的OEM（原始设备制造商）越高效，他们能够生产成本较低的车辆，这将满足那些目前被抛弃或搁置的市场需求，而这对二手车市场造成了一些困难，因为它使价格保持在较高水平，因为新车辆较少。同样，对于可负担性来说，在2009年金融危机期间，新车辆的产量最少，这导致在2017年和2018年，像我们所融资的那些经销商更难以获取实际有价值的库存，因为在那些年份，这些车辆是最稀缺的，所以它们的定价超过了它们提供给消费者的实际价值，所以接下来的五到十年里会发生什么令人感兴趣，这将取决于疫情和制造业的影响，但回到OEM和这些低成本市场，我认为这就像托尼·塞巴（Tony Siba）的东西，我不知道你是否在关注他，塞巴是一位未来学家，他热衷于技术、电动车辆和自动驾驶电动车辆，所以当我们试图规划未来五到十年的时候，我们邀请他作为顾问来我们办公室听听他的想法，他说基于经济学S型曲线的工作方式，电动车辆毫无疑问将是冰燃车辆的巨大颠覆者，纯粹基于经济学原因，因为如果这些车辆实际上能够行驶50万英里到100万英里，并且成本更低，因为电动车发动机只有200个工作部件，而冰燃车则有2000个，我们那时候就想要1百万英里，这是一个理论，特斯拉很可能是目前唯一能够生产这样一款车辆的制造商，但是假设特斯拉真的能够生产出经济实用的价值25000美元的车辆，并且能够行驶50万英里到100万英里，这将对这个市场领域产生革命性的影响。

I mean when I think a million miles to we used to call it the rollover at you know the auctions I mean used to see like like a work van and this was like a it was very rare where you would see it again the millions you know pushing it but you'd see like 500,000, 600,000 on some like crazy work van that I haven't heard that one yet so that's that's pretty aggressive so did he say anything else he did but I'm going to hold that close to the best because we we paid him as a consultant to come down it was very valuable I think if you haven't read any of his works or seen his docs check him out he's got millions of followers he's great yeah now the only thing I'm reading nowadays is Dr. Seuss to my daughter at 7 p.m. every night so and do you remember Ized yet? not quite not quite no I'll be honest I did I did just buy a Kindle though I'm trying because you know at night trying to embed with that little like backlight which is pretty nice so trying to get back into that groove but definitely definitely on the children's book scry now things I hear you I love it

我的意思是，我指的是当我想到"百万英里"这个词时，我们过去在拍卖会上称之为"翻新"，我的意思是过去我们会看到像工作货车这样的车辆，这在百万英里（读数）以下是非常罕见的，你可能会看到50万、60万英里的疯狂工作货车，这是我从未听说过的，所以这真的很夸张，他还说了其他的吗？是的，但我会对此保持保密，因为我们聘请他作为顾问过来是非常有价值的。如果你还没有阅读过他的作品或看过他的纪录片，我建议你去看看，他有数百万的粉丝，非常棒。是的，现在我每天晚上7点给我的女儿读Dr. Seuss的书，你还记得Ized吗？还没有完全记起来，老实说，我刚买了一个Kindle，因为晚上用那个小小的背光灯很不错，所以想重新进入那种状态，但现在主要还是在读儿童书。我理解你的感受，我喜欢这样。

I did want to ask you about interest rates you know you obviously work with the capital markets some extent you're raising money to lend it how is that like impacting your business and how is it impacting consumers is it just as simple as they're paying a higher payment or are you seeing anything else when it comes to conversions and actual adoption of this product at dealerships yeah actually it's made it a lot harder in general because we on the borrowing side we all borrow at variable rates and those variable rates are a lot higher based off of the Fed increasing rates and because they shot up so quickly it really put a heavy burden on organizations like us but really at the dealership level because they were watching their cost of capital double and it really compressed their margins and in this demographic for the consumer there's only a certain payment that is tolerable before you're just setting somebody up to fail so the dealers really had to combat the supply chain issues the inflation issues on vehicles and parts the the labor costs that they've been incurring that are higher along with interest rates so they've had to get really creative on how to reduce expenses on their end so that they can afford to keep their program going while also keeping an affordable payment for the consumer and I think that's one of the other reasons why leasing has gained in popularity for this specific demographic of consumer is because it makes it more affordable the the payment for the quality of vehicle that you can get with a shorter term yeah so you're pretty much saying as these rates have risen they're pretty much the cars.

我确实想问你有关利率的问题，你知道，很明显你在某种程度上与资本市场合作，你筹集资金以提供贷款，这对你的业务有什么影响，对消费者有什么影响，这只是他们支付更高的款项，还是你在转化和实际采用这种产品方面看到了其他什么问题，对于经销商来说，实际上变得更加困难了，因为我们都以浮动利率借款，而这些浮动利率基于联储会增加利率，而且因为他们上涨得如此迅猛，真的给像我们这样的机构带来了沉重负担，但真正给经销商带来了困扰，因为他们看到了他们的资本成本翻了一番，这真的压缩了他们的利润率。对于这类消费者而言，只有在支付一定额度之前才能接受，否则你只是在让某人面临失败的局面。因此，经销商确实不得不应对供应链问题、汽车和零部件的通货膨胀问题，以及他们所承担的更高劳动成本和利率问题，所以他们必须在如何减少支出方面变得非常有创意，这样他们才能负担得起维持他们的计划，同时为消费者提供负担得起的付款。我认为这也是为什么租赁在这类特定消费者中变得越来越受欢迎的另一个原因，因为它使得更高质量的车辆在较短期限内的付款变得更加负担得起。所以你的意思就是随着利率的上升，汽车的价格也随之上涨。

dealers have had on the road their payments on those vehicles has risen as well it had to yeah I mean it doesn't surprise me I you know I can imagine though that now is probably a better time to enter the spaces of dealer given the fact that you know we're unlikely to see rates rise as much as they've risen last two years again not saying can't happen anything can happen but it's less likely yeah I think you're right because if you based your business model off of what rates were in 2017 and weren't able to accommodate that that swift increase but today you're building your model around what the cost of capital is and what you believe your consumer can tolerate as a payment that's you know bearable to the market then it's going to be more successful

经销商们在这段时间里的汽车按揭付款也有所增加，这并不令我感到惊讶。我可以想象，现在可能是一个更好的时机进入经销商领域，因为我们很可能不会再见到像过去两年那样的利率上涨，当然我不是说不可能发生，一切皆有可能，只是不太可能而已。是的，我认为你说得对，如果你的商业模式是基于2017年的利率，而无法适应那种迅猛的增长，但是现在你正在根据资金成本以及你认为你的消费者可以接受的付款来构建你的模式，那么它将更加成功。

do you think that like use car leasing in general you think this is ever going to go mainstream like do you think we're going to see it with you know prime customers and not just in like the subprime segment or do you think it's really like a payment thing for low-income consumers or what's your thoughts there I think that it's easy for the subprime deep subprime segment because vehicles typically have already depreciated quite a bit and so it's not having that drastic depreciation over the life of the vehicle to where you're you may not be able to predict the residual value because that's sort of the concern for dealers or lenders and use car leasing is what how close am I going to be at the targeted residual value in three years and so if you're if you're able to do that with this this market segment that has used cars that are a little bit older it's easier however I think based off of data and generative AI that it's going to increase the likelihood of used car leasing throughout the credit spectrum instead of it just being super prime and just being subprime and deep subprime it's going to help fill in the gaps because there's going to be better predictive models and if you can do that based off of those predictive models then there's a huge market opportunity a lot of people want to lease cars they just can't yeah I mean like I said it's never really been like a hot thing used car industry to begin with for for one reason or another it's um you know I've heard of leasing programs for years. and I definitely know the hundred dollars a week by here payer you're talking about but it's interesting to see that you know it makes me wonder is this an area that you know it's going to get increased adoption given where affordability is at interest rates and just you know the prices of cars I'm with you Tim

你认为像二手车租赁这样的方式是否会成为主流？你认为会有更多的人使用，而不仅仅是次贷客户群吗？或者你认为这只是为低收入消费者提供的一种支付方式？你是怎么看待这个问题的？我认为对于次贷和深度次贷客户来说很容易接受，因为车辆通常已经贬值了很多，所以在车辆使用寿命内不会有太大的贬值，从而无法预测残值的问题不会那么明显，而这是车商或贷款人们担心的。而二手车租赁只需要关注三年内的目标残值，所以如果你能够在这个市场细分中做到这一点，那就会更容易。然而，根据数据和生成型人工智能的观察，我认为二手车租赁会在整个信用范围内逐渐普及，而不仅仅是超级顶尖和亚顶尖客户群。这将填补市场中的空白，因为会有更好的预测模型。如果能够基于这些预测模型做到这一点，那么将会有巨大的市场机会，因为很多人希望租车，只是目前无法实现。我觉得就像我之前说的，二手车行业本身就从来没有像新车市场那样火爆过，这是由于各种原因。我多年来一直听说有二手车租赁计划，我也确实知道每周支付一百美元这种方式，但有趣的是，我不禁想知道，鉴于价格、利率和车价的问题，这个领域是否会得到更多的采用。我和你的看法一致，Tim。

if anyone wants to learn more about yourself lhph like working to go to learn more so our website is easy it's lhph.com you can look through all of our information there you can reach out to us or you can email me t lorence at lhph.com spine and I'll get you to the right person on our team for whatever you're looking for appreciate that any any last words for the audience for for a wrap up hang in there through this tumultuous time in the market um for this turbulent time I think there's a lot of opportunity to be had and in any crisis there is opportunity so let's go find it together

如果有人想更多了解你的LHPH（可能是某个公司或机构），比如想学习如何参与工作，可以通过我们的网站lhph.com来轻松获取更多信息。你可以在那里浏览我们的所有信息，与我们联系，或者给我发送电子邮件至tlorence@lhph.com，我会将你联系到我们团队中对你所需的合适的人。感谢你的支持。对于听众最后一点总结，我想说在这个市场动荡的时期要坚持下去。在任何危机中都有机会，所以让我们一起去找到它吧。

look at that very inspiring all right my friend Tim Lawrence thanks for coming on to the pod really appreciate it and thanks for sharing all your insight super interesting. thanks for having me all right hope you enjoyed that episode please give the podcast a rating consider subscribing to the show and check the show notes for links to what we talked about thanks for tuning in I'll see you guys next time

看那个非常激励人心，好的，我的朋友蒂姆·劳伦斯，感谢你参加这个节目，非常感谢，并感谢你分享的所有见解，非常有趣。谢谢你邀请我进来，好了希望你喜欢这一集，请给这个播客节目评分，考虑订阅这个节目，并查看节目说明中我们所讨论内容的链接，感谢你的收听，下次再见。