Markets Weekly January 13, 2024

Hello, my friends. Today is January 13th, and this is Markets Weekly. So this week, we're going to talk about three things. First, we got some really important inflation data the past week, and it moved markets. Let's talk about what the data is saying and what it might mean for markets going forward.

大家好，朋友们。今天是1月13日，欢迎收看《市场周报》。本周我们将谈论三件事。首先，上周我们获得了一些非常重要的通胀数据，它引起了市场的波动。让我们来看看这些数据所传递的信息以及对未来市场可能产生的影响。

Secondly, so I've had a longstanding question on consumer credit. The overall state of the consumer seems quite strong. After all, unemployment is low, wage gain is high, net worth is high, and consumer spending continues to chug along. But at the same time, there's some data that suggests there is fierce weakness in pockets of consumer credit. Now, there's a Fed study that just came out the past week that reconciles these two facts. Let's listen to what the study is saying.

其次，我一直对消费者信贷有一个长期的问题。消费者的整体状况似乎相当强劲。毕竟，失业率低，工资增长高，净资产高，消费支出仍在持续增长。但与此同时，一些数据表明消费者信贷在某些领域存在严重弱点。现在，最近一周刚刚发布了一项联邦储备系统的研究，将这两个事实进行了调和。让我们来听一下这项研究都在说些什么。

And lastly, this past week, we also got the preliminary annual financial statements of the Fed and it's showing a whopping 100 billion plus operating loss. Let's talk about the mechanics behind this and why it's really not that important.

最后，就在上周，我们也收到了美联储的初步年度财务报表，其中显示了巨额的1000亿美元以上的营业亏损。让我们来谈谈其背后的机制，并解释为什么这并不是非常重要。

Okay, starting with inflation. So at a high level, inflation is basically the change in the overall level of prices. It's a very difficult thing to measure since we have hundreds of thousands of different prices and they all move in different directions. And so in order to get a sense of the general tendencies, people construct indexes of prices and there are a few.

好的，我们先从通胀开始说起。从宏观角度来看，通胀基本上是价格总水平的变化。通胀的测量非常困难，因为我们有数十万个不同的价格，而且它们都朝不同的方向变动。为了获得整体趋势的了解，人们构建了价格指数，有几个不同的指数。

Now this past week, we got CPI and PPI. CPI is the consumer price index, which measures prices paid by consumers and PPI is the producer price index, which measures prices paid by businesses. Now, CPI came in a little bit hotter than expected. It wasn't hot, but it was warm. If you look at CPI on a month over month basis, you notice that while we got kind of a jump the past month, but it is a noisy series. The higher than expected CPI seems to be driven by higher than expected in shelter prints. So shelter, the way that the CPI measures shelter, it measures average rents rather than newly signed leases.

这过去的一周，我们得到了CPI（消费者价格指数）和PPI（生产者价格指数）。CPI是衡量消费者支付价格的指数，而PPI是衡量企业支付价格的指数。现在，CPI的数据比预期略高，虽然不是很高，但也有一定幅度。如果你从环比的角度看CPI数据，你会发现我们在过去的一个月里出现了一定的增长，但这是一个波动较大的指标系列。比预期高的CPI似乎是由于住房价格高于预期引起的。所以CPI中衡量住房的方式是以平均租金为基准，而不是以新签租约为基准。

So because that's the case, newly signed leases is a leading indicator of CPI shelter inflation. Now, when you look at the Zillow rent index, you'll notice that rents increased significantly during the pandemic, but the pace of increases have moderated significantly. And so CPI shelter has basically been following that path. The expectation then is CPI shelter, well, pretty lumpy, we'll continue to moderate going forward. And so this increase in shelter, it could be a one off thing, but it's hard to say.

因此，由于这个原因，新签订的租约是CPI住房通胀的一个领先指标。现在，当你查看Zillow租金指数时，你会注意到在疫情期间租金上涨得很快，但上涨的速度已经显著放缓。所以CPI住房通胀基本上一直在跟随这个趋势。那么预期是，CPI住房通胀会继续放缓，虽然可能会有些波动。所以这种住房费用的增加可能是一次性的，但很难说。

One thing to note is that, and I get this from Michael Ashton, the inflation guy who studies this, is that if you look at rents from a cost perspective, so from the landlord's perspective, you'll notice that landlord expenses are rising. So property taxes are rising as is home insurance. So if you have your costs rising, then that kind of puts a floor as to how low shelter inflation can go. And that's something to think about going forward.

需要注意的一点是，我是从研究通脱胀的迈克尔·阿什顿那里得到的，如果你从成本角度来看待租金，也就是从房东的角度来看，你会注意到房东的开支在增加。因此，不仅房产税增加了，住宅保险也在增加。如果你的成本在上升，这将为住房通脱胀设立了一个底线。这是一个我们未来需要考虑的问题。

Now the second thing, the second inflation index data that we got past week was producer price index. Now, PPI data, if you look at a time series has been, you know, pretty disinflationary for the past few months, you have outright deflation in goods. And you also have PPI services that is basically flat. So PPI overall is not really showing any sign of inflationary pressures.

现在来说第二件事，我们上周获得的第二个通胀指数数据是生产者物价指数。现在，如果你观察时间序列的PPI数据，你会发现过去几个月一直呈现出比较温和的通缩趋势，商品方面甚至出现了明显的通缩。而服务方面的PPI数据基本上保持平稳。因此，从整体上看，PPI并没有显示出任何通胀压力的迹象。

Now even though we got PPI and CPI data, these two price indexes are not the most important one. The most important one, which is the one that the Fed looks at, is PCE, which is personal consumption expenditures. We did not get that the past week, but with the data that we had, we can make a pretty good forecast as to what PCE was show when it's published. Now the Cleveland Fed inflation now cast, PCI forecast is showing that PCI is going to come in at a pretty benign number. So you'll notice that it has a two hand though. So you know, that's pretty close to the Fed's two percent inflation.

现在，即使我们获得了PPI和CPI数据，这两个价格指数并不是最重要的。最重要的是美联储关注的PCE指数，它是个人消费支出。上周我们没有得到这个数据，但根据我们拥有的数据，我们可以对PCE的公布进行相当准确的预测。现在克利夫兰联储的通胀预测显示，PCI的数据将会显示为一个相当温和的数值。所以你会注意到它有两只手，这就接近于美联储设定的2%通胀目标。

So looking at all this inflation data, what is our takeaway? Remember, we are looking at this because the Fed is focused on inflation and the Fed's actions are what move markets. Well, the market has actually already spoken. The market's verdict on all this inflation data is a very dovish Fed. We can see that over the past week, interest rates declined significantly from the front end to the belly. Market is pricing in around seven rate cuts this year. So the market is very, very dovish right now.

看着所有的通胀数据，我们可以得出什么结论呢？请记住，我们关注这些数据是因为美联储专注于通胀，而美联储的行动是市场的推动力。事实上，市场已经发表了看法。对于所有的通胀数据，市场的判断是美联储非常鸽派。我们可以看到，在过去的一周里，短期到中期的利率大幅下降。市场正在定价今年会有大约七次降息。因此，目前市场非常非常鸽派。

I think something interesting to note is that long-rated yields, the 10 year and the third year, actually didn't seem to be all that impacted by this. So it seems like the market's expectation is that the Fed is going to look at this data and think that, you know, my fight against inflation is lower. So I should start cutting rates maybe rapidly.

我认为有一个有趣的观察点是，长期收益率，例如10年期和三年期，并没有受到太大的影响。因此市场似乎预期联储将会从这些数据中认为，我的抗通胀斗争力度较弱，因此可能会迅速降低利率。

Now we'll look for additional confirmation of this perspective on Tuesday when Governor Waller speaks. Now recall, Governor Waller was one of the more hawkish members on the Fed, but he took a more dovish turn and was expressed openness to rate cuts given low inflation data a couple months ago. And so that kind of unleashed a big rally in basically everything. And we covered Governor Waller's pivot in our video a couple months ago.

现在我们将在周二倾听沃勒州长的讲话，以进一步确认这种观点。请记住，沃勒州长曾是美联储内较为鹰派的成员之一，但他在几个月前转向了鸽派，并表达了对降息的开放态度，原因是通胀数据较低。因此，这在基本上所有领域引发了一波大规模的市场反弹。我们在几个月前的视频中已经讲解了沃勒州长的转变。

So I think the market is going to be hyper focused on whether or not Governor Waller still what the Governor Waller thinks about this latest inflation data and whether or not he will push back against the seven rate cuts priced in the market. Mike Bestgas is Governor Waller will continue to be open to rate cuts in March, assuming that inflation data continues to be benign. I don't think you're going to get that much push back from him. So that could be a point for potential furtherance in the risk on episode that we're seeing in markets. But we'll find out on Tuesday. Remember Monday is a market holiday in the US.

所以我认为市场将高度关注沃勒州长对最新通胀数据的看法，以及他是否会反对市场上的七次降息预期。迈克·贝斯特格斯认为沃勒州长在三月仍然会持续支持降息，前提是通胀数据继续保持温和。我认为他对此并不会有太多反对意见。这可能是市场上正在出现的风险偏好进一步扩大的一点。但我们将在星期二揭晓。请记住，美国星期一是一个市场假日。

All right. So the next thing that I want to talk about is the really interesting study that we got from the Fed on consumer credit. So if you look at consumer credit, you're getting a kind of an interesting picture. Now in the US, everyone has a credit score. The credit score is basically a measure of how credit worthy you are. If you pay your bills on time, if you don't have too big of a balance, your credit score will improve. Now credit scores can largely be broken down into two segments. Prime, which are people with very good credit scores. Subprime, which are people with very bad credit scores. And in between, you can say someone has a near prime credit.

好的。接下来我想要谈论的是我们从美联储得到的关于消费者信贷的研究，这个研究非常有趣。如果你看一下消费者信贷，你会得到一个有趣的图景。现在在美国，每个人都有一个信用评分。信用评分基本上是衡量你的信用价值的指标。如果你按时支付账单，没有太大的欠债余额，你的信用评分会提升。信用评分大致可以分为两个部分。Prime，即信用评分非常好的人群。Subprime，即信用评分非常差的人群。而在这两个之间，我们可以说某人具有接近Prime的信用评分。

Now when you break down consumer credit delinquencies, say in auto loans and in credit card loans, by credit rating strata, you come away with a very stark picture. Subprime borrowers have been increasingly delinquent in their loans. And that's kind of into a shocking extent. And that kind of doesn't make sense because when you look at the overall economy, how can there be such high delinquencies when a job growth is fine and overall the economy continues to grow? And many people have been looking at this rise in subprime delinquencies and painting it as a picture of the consumer struggling. But then again, that's kind of a difficult to see when you look at the big picture.

现在，当你把消费信贷违约分解开来，比如汽车贷款和信用卡贷款，按照信用评级层次来看，你会得到一个非常严峻的图片。次级借款人的违约情况越来越严重。而且这种情况相当令人震惊。这似乎没有道理，因为当你看整体经济时，如果就业增长良好，整体经济也在持续增长，怎么会有这么高的违约率呢？很多人一直在关注次级违约率的上升，并将其描述为消费者的困境。但当你看整体情况时，这种观点有点难以接受。

Now when you zoom out a bit and look at overall consumer delinquencies, they're really not that concerning. They've risen from very low levels in 2021, but they're basically around where they've been the past 10 years. So it really just seems to be this particular subprime pocket of consumer credit that seems to be struggling. How do we reconcile this?

现在，当你稍微放大视野，审视整体消费者拖欠情况时，它们其实并不那么令人担忧。它们从2021年的非常低水平上升，但基本上还是维持在过去10年的水平。所以似乎只是消费信贷中的这个次级信贷领域似乎有些困难。我们如何解决这个问题？

Well this interesting fed study seems to say that this thing that you're seeing in consumer in subprime delinquencies, well it's just because credit scores are inflated and so what was subprime today is basically people that would have never gone alone in the past. Let me put this in great inflation terms. So in the US, let's say two decades ago, most people got B's or C's and very few people got A's. So when you got an A, you were doing a really good job. Now fast forward to today when you go to university, basically everyone gets an A, some people get B's and almost never one gets a C. If you get a C today, you are really, really, really in trouble and you did really poorly. Now it seems according to this research that the same thing is happening in credit scores.

这个有趣的美联储研究似乎表明，你在消费者次级违约中所看到的情况，只是因为信用评分被夸大了，所以现在被视为次级的人，实际上是过去根本无法获得贷款的人。让我用通胀的术语来解释一下。所以在美国，假设20年前，大多数人得到的是B或C级别的分数，而只有很少人能得到A级。那时如果你得到A，你做得非常出色。现在快进到今天，当你上大学时，基本上每个人都能得到A，一些人得到B，但很少有人得到C。如果你今天得到C，那你真的，真的，真的遇到了麻烦，你表现得非常糟糕。现在根据这项研究，似乎信用评分也出现了同样的情况。

Now since we've been in benign economic times, everyone has a job, everyone is paying their bills, credit scores have risen for a lot of people and basically they're inflating upwards such that the people who are rated subprime today are actually historically speaking really, really bad credits. So what the researchers did to correct this is that they recast the data by keeping everyone's credit score today back to where it was in 2019. So basically taking away some of that credit score inflation. Now when you take away the credit score inflation, you walk away with a picture of delinquencies. That's much, much more benign than before. You notice that subprime delinquencies risen a bit, but still very much within historical ranges, kind of like what you'd expect in an economy that's growing but at a slower rate. And of course, prime and near prime delinquencies take up a little bit as well, but just a little bit and a solidly among historical ranges.

现在由于我们一直处于良性经济时期，每个人都有工作，每个人都在支付账单，很多人的信用评分已经提高，基本上他们的信用评分正朝着上升的方向发展，以至于如今被评为次级贷款的人实际上从历史的角度来看是真的非常差的信用。因此，研究人员为了纠正这一点，他们将数据重新计算，将每个人的信用评分都恢复到2019年的水平。因此，他们消除了一些信用评分的通胀。现在当你消除信用评分的通胀时，你会看到一幅违约的画面。相比以前，这个画面要好得多。你会注意到次级贷款的违约率略微上升，但仍然在历史范围内，就像你在一个增长速度较慢的经济中所期望的一样。当然，优良和接近优良的违约率也有所上升，但只是稍微上升，并且仍然在历史范围内。

So the takeaway, the takeaway I get from this is that this concern about subprime delinquencies is completely unfounded and it's merely due to a change in measurement or credit score inflation where people who are really, really, really bad credit somehow became subprime and got, never should have got loans, but did get loans. So now that actually makes a lot of sense to me. So I don't think there's any concern in consumer credit at the moment. Again, this is more consistent with the totality of the data.

所以，从这里我获得的要点是，对于次级违约的担忧完全是没有根据的，只是由于测量标准的转变或信用评分的通胀，导致一些信用非常差的人被归类为次级违约，并且他们从未应该获得贷款，但却确实获得了贷款。所以现在这对我来说非常合理。所以我认为目前没有任何对消费信贷的担忧。再次强调，这更符合全部数据的总体情况。

Okay. Now, the last thing I want to talk about is this super interesting, a preliminary annual financial report we got from the Fed. This past week, which shows that the Fed made an operating loss of over $100 billion and that's a lot of money. Now, how does this actually work? How's it possible for a central bank to have such a large operating loss? Well, at a high level, the Fed is like any other bank. It has interest income from the assets that it owns and it has interest expense by paying interest on its deposits.

好的。现在，我想要讨论的最后一件事是美联储提供给我们的一份非常有趣的初步年度财务报告。这份报告显示，上周美联储出现了超过1000亿美元的营业亏损，这是一笔巨额资金。那么，这个到底是如何运作的呢？中央银行怎么可能出现如此大规模的营业亏损？嗯，在一个高层面上，美联储就像任何其他银行一样。它通过所拥有的资产获得利息收入，同时通过支付利息给存款人产生利息支出。

Now, for the Fed's case, its assets are all the, so, treasuries and agency MBS it bought during its QE operations and its interest expense are the interest it pays on reserves, which are basically deposits that commercial banks float at the Fed. So the Fed bought tremendous amounts of securities when interest rates were low in 2020, 2021 and also aggressively hiked interest rates, thus hiking its interest rate expense. This has placed the Fed in a large negative carry position where it basically keeps losing money. And you know what? The Fed is not like you and I, it can print money. So even though it's losing money, it doesn't really matter. It just prints money and it makes up the difference. It's not a problem at all.

现在，对于美联储而言，它的资产全部是在其量化宽松操作期间购买的国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券，而其利息支出则是它支付给商业银行在美联储的存款利息。因此，美联储在2020年、2021年利率低时购买了大量证券，并且积极加息，从而增加了其利息支出。这使得美联储处于巨大的负债头寸，基本上就是一直在亏钱。而且你知道吗？美联储不像你和我，它可以印钱。所以即使它亏钱，也没关系。它只需要印钱，就能弥补差额。这根本不是问题。

Now, one other thing to keep in mind is what the Fed does with its income and its losses. So when the Fed has an operating profit, what it does is that it kicks that profit back to the US Treasury. And for the 10 years after the Great Financial Crisis, the Fed was a tremendous profit center. After all, interest rates were zero, so the Fed basically owned a whole bunch of treasuries and agency back mortgages and was funding them by paying 0% interest. So for the 10 years after the Great Financial Crisis, the Fed made the Treasury over $1 trillion huge profits. And so that was all good.

现在，还有一件要记住的事情是美联储如何处理其收入和亏损。所以当美联储获得经营利润时，它会将这笔利润返还给美国财政部。在大金融危机之后的10年里，美联储成为了一个巨大的利润中心。毕竟，利率为零，所以美联储基本上拥有一大批国债和机构抵押贷款，并通过支付0%的利息来为它们提供资金支持。因此，在大金融危机之后的10年里，美联储为财政部创造了超过1万亿美元的巨额利润。所以一切都挺好的。

Now that the Fed is making a loss, it's not going to ask the Treasury for money to make up that loss. What happens is that the Fed simply stops remitting profits through the Treasury after all the Fed has no profits and eventually, eventually in the future when the Fed gets back to making an operating profit, what it would do is that it will use that money to repay its losses. And then when its losses are finally fully repaid, it will begin to resume remitting profits to the Treasury.

现在，由于美联储出现了亏损，它不会向财政部请求资金来弥补这部分亏损。事实上，美联储会停止通过财政部转移利润，因为它没有利润，最终，当美联储重新开始盈利时，它将利用这些盈利来偿还亏损。而当亏损最终完全偿还时，美联储将重新开始向财政部转移利润。

Now it's hard to know exactly when that will be. It would depend on the size of the Fed's balance sheet, so that is to say the pace of quantity of tightening and also the path of interest rates. Now my best guess is the Fed will probably be earning a profit in probably two years, but again really hard to say. Now the path of QT is also unknown at the moment. Right now we have a public debate among Fed officials as to how to think about quantitative the tapering of QT, which of course will help decide whether when QT stops. Now I will write about this in my blog where I lay out the different arguments made by Fed officials and my best judgment as to how QE will be ended going forward.

现在很难准确地知道那会是什么时候。它将取决于美联储资产负债表的规模，也就是说紧缩力度和利率路径的速度。现在我最好的猜测是，美联储可能会在大约两年内盈利，但是很难说。此外，QT的路径目前也是未知的。现在，美联储官员之间正在公开辩论如何思考量化收紧（QT）的缩减问题，这当然将有助于决定何时停止QT。我会在我的博客中写一篇文章，详细阐述美联储官员提出的不同论点以及我对未来如何结束量化宽松（QE）的最佳判断。

But in any case, so basically the Fed printed $100 billion because it had an operating loss $100 billion in the grand scheme of things. Sounds like a big number, but I think for an economy the size of the US government, not that big a deal. It's going to make some people in Congress mad and it's going to make J. Powell have an uneasy congressional hearing in the future, but ultimately it's really just not that important. My expectation is this operating loss shrinks this year as rates get cut.

但无论如何，总之联邦储备系统印了 1000 亿美元，因为它在整个体系中的运营亏损达到了 1000 亿美元。听起来是个很大的数字，但我认为对于像美国政府这样规模的经济来说，并没有那么重要。这将令国会中的一些人生气，也会让鲍威尔在未来的国会听证会上感到不安，但最终这并不是那么重要。我的预期是随着利率的降低，这种运营亏损会在今年减少。

Okay, so that's all I prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in. If you're interested in my thoughts, check out my blog, FedGuide.com, where I try to keep you abreast on the latest developments in markets and my views on it. And if you're interested in learning more about how markets work, check out my classes at essentialbanking101.com. Alright guys, talk to you all next week.

好的，那就是我今天准备的全部内容。非常感谢大家的收听。如果你对我的观点感兴趣，请查看我的博客FedGuide.com，我会尽量向你传递市场的最新动态和我的观点。如果你对了解市场运作更感兴趣，请访问essentialbanking101.com上的我的课程。好了，各位，下周再见。