Dara Khosrowshahi, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner, & Jason Calacanis on Uber's growth and future | E1778
发布时间 2024-01-12 05:28:40 来源
Hey, Dara, how are you? I'm doing great. How about you? Pretty great, pretty great. Looks like I'm stuck on another pod with two lunatics. I don't know. I was asking about this. This is a real thing now. It's amazing. It's an experiment. It's an experiment. It's an experiment. It's an experiment. It's just a couple of guys. It's like it's a thing that Bill, the girl in the earth, is an experiment. I love it.
嘿，达拉，你好吗？我很好。你呢？非常棒，非常棒。看起来我又跟两个疯子被困在一个胶囊里了。我不知道。我是在问这个。这现在是真的。太棒了。这是一个实验。这是一个实验。这是一个实验。这是一个实验。只是一些家伙。就像是一个叫比尔的人和地球上的女孩的实验。我喜欢它。
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All right, everybody. Welcome back to this week in startups slash BG squared. It's a little bit of an experiment we're doing here. Last week we got such a tremendous response to having two of my besties on the program and two legends here in Silicon Valley, two of the greatest investors in the history of Silicon Valley. Of course, Brad Gerstner from Altimeter and of course, legendary venture capitalist, Bill Gurley and friend of mine. Welcome back to the program. Thank you.
大家好，欢迎回到本周创业活动/ BG平方。这是我们进行的一次小小的实验。上周，在节目中我邀请了两位我最好的朋友以及硅谷的传奇人物，他们是硅谷历史上最伟大的投资者之一。当然，我们有Altimeter的Brad Gerstner以及传奇风险投资家Bill Gurley，也是我的朋友。欢迎回到节目。谢谢。
We decided this week we would try something new. We decided we'd look for, you know, some operators, people operating businesses, maybe businesses at scale and see if there's anything we can learn from them. And we thought, you know, interesting business that all three of us were involved in as investors is a taxi company called Uber and their CEO, Dara Khosra Shahi is here with us. How are you doing, Dara?
我们决定尝试一些新的事情。我们决定寻找一些运营商，他们经营着一些规模较大的企业，看看我们能否从他们身上学到一些东西。我们还觉得，我们三个人都作为投资者参与的一家有趣的企业是一家名为Uber的出租车公司，他们的首席执行官达拉·科斯拉·萨希与我们在一起。你好吗，达拉？
I am doing very well, although I am quite nervous. This is a very dangerous group to be talking with.
我过得很好，尽管我相当紧张。和这个团体说话很危险。
Well, knowledge is not my friend right now, but we'll see how it goes.
嗯，目前知识并不是我的朋友，但我们会看情况如何。
Well, easy to go up against a journalist, right? They have partial information. You can use your charm, but here you actually have quite paradoxically in some ways. I was the third or fourth investor in Uber. Bill and the seed round, Bill Girly, of course, did the series A. And Brad, I'm not sure when you came in, but I think it was when it was a private, yeah?
嗯，对付记者很容易，对吧？他们只有部分信息。你可以利用你的魅力，但有些方面实际上你相当矛盾。我是Uber的第三或第四个投资者。Bill在种子轮投资，当然，Bill Girly做了A轮投资。至于Brad，我不确定你是在什么时候进来的，但我想当时是私人股份，对吗？
Yes, we came in a couple of rounds before they went public and then also were involved in the IPO and then have been very involved in the company ever since. This has been quite a journey for this company. We all backed it knowing that there was something special here. All of us had a, you know, a different thesis about it.
是的，在他们上市之前，我们进行了几轮投资，然后还参与了首次公开募股（IPO），从那时起一直对该公司非常投入。对于这家公司来说，这是一段相当的旅程。我们所有人都支持它，因为我们知道这里有特别的东西。我们每个人都有不同的观点。
But let's set the stage right now for Uber going into 2024. The company had been pitched, I think, as it will never make money. It's impossible to make money on this. And great job, I think, Dara in Sheperity and the company to profitability. So maybe Brad, it would be good for you to maybe just talk a little bit about the Uber-free cash flow story and pull up the slides while we set the stage here. You know, the interesting thing about Uber is they were forced to get fit before everybody else because it's a travel company and COVID hit in March of 2020. And Dara, I'm sure, can tell the story, but gross bookings turned upside down. We still had excess capital and competition in the world. And so if you look at the slide one, Uber-free cash flow generation, I think it really tells the story. The company went from losing over two and a half billion or around two and a half billion when Dara took over to profiting over three and a half billion. And we're talking free cash flow. This is not a bunch of manipulated, you know, kind of numbers, you know, last year. And if you look at the consensus forecast for the business, which is pretty mind-boggling, it's estimated by the consensus that will reach almost 10 billion in free cash flow just a few years from now. And then if you look at the second chart, just on stock price and then, you know, kick it back over to DK, but you know, the stock price has reflected that there was a lot of questions, Jason, as you talked. I mean, listen, how many times did you and I and Bill and Dara talk about the fact that these headlines, where this was an impossible category would never be profitable. But what really happened was this, you know, capital being used as a weapon of economic destruction, destroying profits. And so the second chart shows when that stopped happening, when interest rates got real and Dara's changes that he put in place kicked in, you saw massive separation in terms of performance between Uber and Lyft. And so maybe just Dara, take us through one or two of the key levers. What part of the story maybe hasn't been told?
但让我们现在为2024年的Uber做好准备。这家公司曾经被认为是永远不会赚钱的。在这上面赚钱是不可能的。我认为，谢里巴提和公司为赢利做出了巨大贡献。所以，也许布拉德，你可以稍微谈一下Uber的自由现金流现象，一边在这里设定舞台。Uber的有趣之处是，他们被迫在其他人之前变得适应环境，因为它是一家旅游公司，而COVID在2020年3月爆发。达拉，我相信，可以讲述这个故事，但毛收入逆转了。我们仍然有过剩的资本和全球竞争。所以，如果你看看第一个幻灯片，Uber的自由现金流产生，我认为这真的能说明问题。在达拉接手之前，公司每年亏损超过25亿美元，而现在已经盈利超过35亿美元。而且我们所说的自由现金流。这不是去年的一堆被操作的数字。如果你看看关于该业务的共识预测，这是非常令人难以置信的，根据共识估计，几年内将达到近100亿美元的自由现金流。然后，如果你看看第二张图，关于股价，然后，你知道，将其传回到DK，但是，你知道，股价反映出有很多问题，Jason，正如你所说的那样。我的意思是，听着，你和我、比尔和达拉多少次讨论过这个事实，这些头条新闻，这类别是不可能盈利的。但真正发生的是，资本被用作经济破坏的武器，销毁了利润。所以第二张图展示了当这种情况停止发生时，当利率变得现实，达拉并实施了他的变革时，Uber和Lyft的业绩出现了巨大的差异。所以也许，达拉，带我们去了解一两个关键的杠杆。有没有什么故事没有被告诉到？
Yeah, absolutely. So I do think that the, listen, the early years with Uber, we were engaging like everyone else, especially private companies and private companies at scale and growth at all costs because you had this free money regime, everybody was doing it. And all valuations were based on growth rate and no one cared about profitability, as long as you had some theoretical business model that you could show to investors.
是的，完全正确。所以我确实认为，在 Uber 的早期阶段，我们与其他人一样与各私人公司合作，尤其是那些大规模增长和一味追求成长的私人公司，因为那时候的金钱是自由的，每个人都在这么做。所有估值都基于增长率，没有人关心盈利能力，只要你能向投资者展示一些理论上的商业模式就行。
And who knew when that would happen? It kind of reminded me of, I think it was Chuck Prince, he was CEO of CityBankies. Like when the music starts, everyone has to get up and dance. I think it was free, the real estate crash, et cetera. So I think the music was like really loud in the free money era and everybody was dancing.
谁知道那会发生在什么时候呢？这有点让我想起，我想那是Chuck Prince，他曾是花旗银行的首席执行官。就像音乐开始时，每个人都得起身跳舞一样。我记得是在房地产崩盘等等情况下。所以我认为在免费金钱时代，音乐真的很大声，每个人都在跳舞。
And for us, the music stopped earlier, which was COVID. And literally overnight, 85% of our business disappeared in terms of our ride share business. That was the profit generator at the time. And it was a complete disaster and nobody knew when it was gonna come back. Now, our Uber Eats business actually grew and grew very, very quickly. But it was an unprofitable business at the time. It was much less mature, et cetera. So that was a toughest time in my career. I never thought that I would come to Uber to do a mass layoff, but we laid off over 25% of our workforce. When you lose 85% of your revenue, you can't take kind of casual actions, so to speak.
对于我们来说，音乐在更早的时候就停止了，那就是COVID。字面上来说，我们的共乘业务，也就是赚钱的主要来源，由此一夜之间消失了85%。这是一场完全的灾难，没有人知道它将何时回复正常。而我们的Uber Eats业务实际上却迅速增长。但那时它是盈利困难的，也远没有成熟。所以那是我职业生涯中最艰难的时刻。我从未想过我会去Uber进行大规模裁员，但我们裁掉了超过25%的员工。当你损失了85%的收入时，你不能采取什么轻率的行动。
And more importantly than just cutting costs, we actually completely got out of certain businesses or we decided to get out of certain businesses. We were developing our autonomous technology that was not a fan of that. And I remember, and we totally got out of that business, bikes and scooters, hardware. We really had to decide what our core skill set was.
更重要的是，我们不仅仅是为了削减成本，实际上还彻底退出了某些业务，或者决定退出某些业务。我们正在开发一项自主技术，而这并不是我们青睐的。我记得，我们完全退出了那个业务，自行车和滑板车硬件。我们确实需要决定我们的核心技能集是什么。
And our core skill set is to build marketplaces, matching supply and demand at great scale with the best matching and pricing technology than anyone else on earth, because we've got the most data. And so we really had to restrict back to our core.
我们的核心技能是构建市场，利用世界上最先进的匹配和定价技术，在巨大的规模上匹配供需，因为我们拥有最多的数据。因此，我们真的不得不限制自己专注于核心领域。
And while it was very, very painful and while I never want to go through that again, one of the things that I sworn to myself and my team, kind of we talked about it is, we never, ever want to have another layoff. So post COVID, while a lot of companies started spending, again, when things started coming back, we were actually very, very disciplined in terms of costs.
尽管那段时间非常非常痛苦，而且我绝不希望再次经历那样的情况，但我和我的团队誓言从此再也不要进行任何裁员。因此，在COVID疫情过后，许多公司开始重新投入开支的时候，我们在成本方面实际上非常严格。
And I think since 2019, our growth bookings have doubled, but we've added about only 10% in terms of heck count. And to your words, brat, we stayed fit. And listen, it hasn't been easy because there are a lot of demands on the team to do more and to grow the business. And for our business, the first thing is growth. So if you look at this chart, I won't comment on the expectations, but since 2017, we've more than doubled our audience.
我认为自2019年以来，我们的增长预订量翻了一番，但我们只增加了约10%的员工人数。按照你说的，年轻人，我们保持健康。听着，这并不容易，因为团队面临着更多的要求，要做更多的事情，发展业务。对于我们的业务来说，首要的是增长。所以如果你看看这张图表，我不会对预期发表评论，但自2017年以来，我们的受众增加了一倍以上。
This is even with COVID, right? More than doubled our audience, trips has grown about two and a half times. Growth bookings has grown, basically three and a half times as well. But we have the discipline as a company to keep heck count flat, to be very, very disciplined in investments that we're making, to stay in the area where we have clear vanishes, which is this marketplace science and a great consumer, set of great consumer apps and a great set of earner apps and not getting out over skis.
这是即使在COVID的情况下，对吧？我们的受众增加了一倍以上，旅行次数增长了约两倍半。预订增长也增加了大约三倍半。但作为一家公司，我们拥有保持成本平稳的纪律，非常严谨地对我们所做的投资进行控制，始终在我们在这个市场科学和伟大的消费者应用程序以及一套伟大的赚钱应用程序上拥有清晰的优势，并不过度冒进。
And then very kind of having discipline on every single cost center, right? It's like credit card cost, customer service cost, like every single cost center for others has an owner. There's real pride. And I think that the heroes that the company aren't the people who, you know, are growing from 50 heck count to 100 heck count to 150 heck count. They're the ones who keep driving and keep building and keep innovating with small teams. You know, the definition of heroes change within the company.
然后非常善于对每个成本中心进行纪律管理，对吧？就像信用卡成本、客户服务成本，每个成本中心都有一个负责人。他们真的对此感到自豪。我认为，公司的英雄不是那些从50个人才队伍增长到100个人才队伍，再到150个人才队伍的人。真正的英雄是那些一直驱动、一直建设、一直保持创新的小团队。你知道，在公司内部，对英雄的定义是会改变的。
And I think the nice thing is that with success comes kind of the positive reinforcement that people are looking for. And we definitely, you know, because we are multi-product in our rides, rides business can help eat in terms of demand. The East business can help a rides business in terms of supply, the platform that we have, the scale that we have. We've, you know, the stock is definitely outperformed competition and hopefully we can keep it up. All right.
我认为美好的事情是，成功带来了人们所期待的积极反馈。而且，由于我们有多种产品，在乘车方面，乘车业务可以帮助满足需求。东方业务可以帮助乘车业务提供供应，我们拥有的平台和规模。我们的股票绝对表现超过了竞争对手，希望我们能够继续保持。好的。
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Okay, so Bill Gurley, this is an incredible segue into when you hear Dara and this level of competency and discipline and getting the company to this point, it wasn't always that way. It was a high growth company as we both know, had a seat at the table watching this, in this massive zerp environment, massive investment, global takeover, it was really inspiring, I think, what Travis did in terms of building out the company and the speed at which he did it. But you were intimately involved in Dara getting selected for the slot. Can you take us back to the competition for the CEO slot at Uber and maybe give us some inside information and take on what it was, or your champion of Dara, etc.
好的，Bill Gurley，这是一个了不起的过渡，当你听到Dara以及他的能力和纪律使公司达到这一水平时，可能并不总是这样。我们都知道，它是一个高速增长的公司，在这个庞大的零售环境中，大规模的投资，全球接管，我认为特拉维斯在建设公司以及他建设的速度上真的很激励人。但是你亲身参与了Dara在Uber CEO一职上的选择。你能回想一下Uber CEO一职的竞争，也许给我们一些内幕信息，谈谈你对Dara的支持之处等等。
Yeah. Technically, I was on the outside, I wasn't on the board at the time, I'm at Kohler taking my spot. But I would tell you this, because I remember the conversations we had internally and there were really two issues, or two characteristics that we talked about that you would want an CEO for this business. And the first one was someone that could help put out the fire and there were a lot, it's easy to forget because of how far the companies come under Dara's leadership, just how many fires there were at the time, but there were many states, attorney generals that were upset with the company, there were issues in London, there was a, we were losing market share because of what was going on with the brand. And so it wasn't an easy decision, I'm sure, for Dara, just because there was so much work to do. And then the second part was if someone could successfully put out all the fires, how would you go about growing the business and would someone be great at that?
是的。从技术上讲，我当时是在公司外部，不是在当时的董事会上，我在柯勒担任我的位置。但我可以告诉你的是，因为我记得我们内部的对话，我们谈到了两个问题，或者说两个特征，你希望这个业务的首席执行官具备这两个特质。第一个是能够帮助解决危机，当时存在很多危机，由于达拉的领导，公司取得了很大的进步，很容易忘记当时有多少危机，但当时有很多州的总检察长对公司感到不满，伦敦也存在问题，由于品牌问题，我们的市场份额正在下降。因此，这并不是一个容易的决定，我相信对于达拉来说，需要做很多工作。然后第二部分是，如果有人能够成功地解决所有的危机，那么你将如何发展业务，有人能够做得更好吗？
And around that time, around that time, I, for some reason, decided to tweet that I felt the business could be worth 100 billion one day and I've taken a lot of heat over the years for that assertion, but when I look at it. I was your 420 tweet? Yeah, when I look, and look, I think the pandemic made the timing, they took a little longer. But when I look at where we are today and the company is today and 130 billion dollar market cap, I have to give Dara, you know, he's right here in front of us, but I have to give him a plus on both of those initiatives are characteristics that we're looking for. So clearly the company made the exact right choice. And it wasn't easy.
大约那个时候，我不知为何决定发推文声称这家公司未来有可能价值一万亿美元，结果多年来我因为这个声明承受了很大的压力，但当我审视这一切时，我是你的第420条推文吗？是的，当我审视，再次审视，我认为疫情使得时间拖得有点久。但当我看到我们今天的发展和公司现在的市值为1300亿美元时，我不得不承认达拉（Dara）做出了正确的两项决策，并且我必须给予他肯定，这正是我们所期望的特点。所以显然公司做出了完全正确的选择。而且这并不容易。
This idea of competing when capital's free, we talk about the game on the field or zipper, you know, cash being everywhere. I can remember being in it at the time and having the thought. And I even had a chance to talk to some of the best business people in the history of the world. They've never been through it. Like you could have grabbed, you know, Warren Buffett and Jeff Emm. You grab all these people, they haven't seen that game where your competitors willing to lose $2 billion. That was the first time in the history of business that people had faced something like that. And so I think that the degree of difficulty was, you know, super hard. And it created enemies of the company just for the burn alone.
在资金自由的情况下进行竞争的想法，我们谈论的是比赛现场或者拉链，你知道的，金钱无处不在。我记得当时我就身陷其中并产生过这样的思考。我甚至有机会和世界上一些最优秀的商人交谈过。他们从未经历过这样的情况。就好像你可以抓住沃伦·巴菲特和杰夫·埃莫特一样。你抓住所有这些人，他们从未见过竞争对手愿意输掉20亿美元的游戏。这是商业史上第一次出现这样的情况。所以我认为这种困难程度是非常高的。它仅仅因为燃烧本身就让公司招来了敌人。
I can remember how painful it was the morning of the IPO two legendary people from Silicon Valley were on CNBC, just throwing shade for like three hours while they were trying to open the stock. And that was, you know, that was what was in Boge at the time. So it's really, anyway, massive hat tip Dara. It's really incredible how far the company's gone. Who was the close second, Bill? Who was the close second? If there was some.
我还记得当初IPO的早上，有两位来自硅谷的传奇人物在CNBC上直播，他们在努力开启股票的同时，长达三个小时投射阴影。那时候，这就是Boge公司正在经历的情况。所以，无论如何，我要向达拉致以巨大的敬意。这家公司走过的路程真的令人难以置信。比尔，第二名是谁？如果有的话。
I think Megan and Jeff and all the names that were out there. Yeah. Dara, when you hear Bill Gurley's sort of recap of that time period, when you had to make the decision and you're like, this is going to be hard. There's a lot of fires. And let's face it, you needed a wartime CEO to make Uber even exist. The fact is you had to take on every city. You had to take on a lot of corruption medallions, et cetera, people who were incumbents didn't want to do this. Travis did an exceptional job of that. But yeah, it was pretty expansive and it was spending money. So take us through your decision. Were you ever thinking, this is not the juice, ain't worth the squeeze here or this is just too hard. I'm being set up to be the fall guy taking this company over. There's just the chance. And what did you think the chances were that you could get it to where it is now? Give you a little bit of a victory lap here. It's actually funny that, and by the way, we don't count as a victory like every day can be a victory failure.
我认为梅根和杰夫以及所有其他名字都在那里。是的，达拉，当你听到比尔·格利对那个时期的回顾时，你不得不做出决策时，你会觉得很难。有很多问题和困难。面对现实吧，要让优步存在下去，你需要一个能在战争中指挥的首席执行官。事实上，你必须进军每个城市。你必须对付很多附加条件，包括腐败的车牌之类的，现有的竞争者不愿意这样做。特拉维斯在这方面做得非常出色。但是，是的，这是一个相当庞大的任务，需要花钱。所以，告诉我们你做出决定的过程。你是否曾经想过，这不值得花费这么大的精力，或者这太难了。我是不是将接手这家公司成为替罪羊的机会。毕竟，这可能性是存在的。你认为你能把它发展到现在的地步的概率是多少？在这里，让我为你加油吧。实际上挺有趣的，顺便说一句，我们不能每天都说这是胜利或失败。
But I do remember I got a call from a headhunter at that point. And my first reaction was like, hell no, like no way. I'm CEO of Speedya, love what I'm doing. It's a great company. I've been a company for 12, 13 years, worked for a person who I really am our Barry Diller. So the initial answer was absolutely not. But I actually had drinks with the friend, Daniel Eichro, runs Spotify. And he's like, Dario recommended you for this job. I don't know where, and I recommended you to this headhunter. Did you say yes? And did he call you? I'm like, yeah, but I said, heck no. And Daniel gave me a really hard time. And I still remember he's like, I said I'm happy at Expedia. Like since when is life about happiness? It's about impact. And Uber is, you know, one of the most impactful companies in the world. And I would say that this is the magic of magical product. Right. If I hadn't used Uber myself, if I didn't love the product and what it did for me, and how it improved my life personally, and how I was in every day part of my life, no way I would have taken the job.
但是我记得那时我接到了一个猎头的电话。我的第一反应是，不，绝不可能。我是Speedya的CEO，喜欢我现在的工作。这是一个很棒的公司。我在这个公司工作了12、13年，曾为我敬仰的人贝瑞·迪勒工作过。所以最初的回答是绝对不可能的。但是我确实和我的朋友丹尼尔·艾克罗喝了点东西，他是Spotify的负责人。他说，达里奥推荐你去做这份工作。我不知道他从哪里知道的，然后我也推荐你给这个猎头了。你说了yes吗？他给你打电话了吗？我说，是的，但我回答的是当然不行。丹尼尔对我进行了严厉的斥责。我仍然记得他说，我说过我在Expedia很满意。但是，生活什么时候变成了只追求快乐了呢？它是关乎影响力的。而Uber是全球最具影响力的公司之一。我会说，这就是魔幻产品的魔力。如果我自己没有使用过Uber，如果我不喜欢这个产品以及它为我做的事情，以及它是我每天生活的一部分，我绝对不会接这份工作。
But the fact is that, you know, I'm not going to be a business person, I'm not going to be taking the job. But the fact is that, you know, Travis had to fight and do a lot of good and a lot of, you know, things that were actually cost his job in the end. But he built a company and he had to fight to build that company. And yes, there were messes that had to be cleaned up. But the service was a magical service. It continues to be a magical service. And it was that impact in the end. And it was that product in the end that convinced me, you know what? I can put out these fires. I did not know everything. And that's probably one of the reasons why I joined. It's always harder on the inside. But it's been one of the greatest experiences of my professional life. And I'd say like of my life, it's been a great ride. It's been a hard ride. But I would never second chance that decision was a great decision.
但事实是，你知道的，我不会成为商人，我不会接受那份工作。但事实是，你知道的，特拉维斯不得不努力并做了许多好事，实际上这些事情最终也付出了他的工作。但他建立了一家公司，他为了建立这家公司不得不奋斗。是的，有一些问题需要解决。但这项服务是一项神奇的服务。它仍然是一项神奇的服务。正是这个影响力和产品最终说服了我，你知道吗？我可以解决这些困难。我并不知道所有的事情。这可能是我加入的原因之一。内部总是更困难的。但这是我职业生涯中最伟大的经历之一。我可以说，对于我的生活来说，这是一次伟大的旅程。这是一次艰难的旅程。但我永远不会后悔那个决定，它是一个伟大的决定。
You seem like you wanted to add something there. Oh, no, I was thinking we owe Daniel a hat tip too. I guess. Absolutely. I'm just upgrading to the family plan on Spotify and playing the walk in his life. The random walk of life, you know. One of the lessons, I think, you know, perhaps to come out of this. I think, you know, at the time I was talking to Dara, I was talking to Bill and others. And whenever people brought up Dara, it was like, Oh, he's running another globally complex travel business. He's running Expedia. So that's why he mapped to potentially a good CEO. But when you talk to Bill Gurley at the time, Bill's like, that's not the most important thing. Right. And I had done an interview with Dara probably five, four or five years before that. And before we did the interview, Dara, if you remember this at Summit, I asked you to take the Enneagram. And yeah, Dara on the Enneagram is a number nine. He's a peacemaker, right? And lots of presidents and CEO. So CEOs tend to fall in a couple of buckets. Either a nine or an eight, eight is kind of the Frank Slutman model of CEO. Nine is kind of the peacemaker model. And at that moment in time, having a high integrity CEO with a north star that Dara had who had dealt with really tough customers. I mean, yes, Barry Diller is extraordinary, but everybody knows Barry is tough. And Victor Kaufman, we're tough when you were CFO of USA networks.
你们似乎想在那里加些东西。哦，不，我在考虑我们也要感谢一下丹尼尔。我猜是吧。当然。我只是在Spotify上升级到家庭套餐，并播放他的人生旅程。你懂的，人生就像随机漫步。我认为，这其中有一个教训。我想，在那个时候我和达拉、比尔和其他人交谈时，每当人们提到达拉时，都是像说：“哦，他又在经营另一个全球复杂的旅游业务了。他在Expedia经营。” 因此，这就是他有可能成为一位优秀的CEO的原因。但是当你跟比尔·格雷在那个时候交谈时，他会说，这不是最重要的事情。对了。在那之前，我曾经采访过达拉，大概是五年或者四五年前。在采访之前，达拉，如果你还记得，在峰会上我让你做了九型人格测试。是的，达拉在九型人格中是属于九号，也就是和平斡旋者。很多总统和首席执行官都会分为几个类别。要么是九号，要么是八号，八号类型是弗兰克·斯拉特曼的CEO模式。九号类型是和平斡旋者模式。那时，我们需要一个高度诚信的CEO，达拉具备这些特质，并处理过一些非常难缠的客户。我是说，贝瑞·迪勒确实非常出色，但大家都知道他很难应付。而维克托·考夫曼，当你担任USA网络的首席财务官时，我们也很难应付。
And then you took the handoff from a very popular rich Barton Expedia and doing that founder to CEO handoff, which he had done before. And we knew he was going to have to take the baton from an incredibly popular Travis at Uber and be the CEO who came in after him. So I would say that was the first thing for me that was the most important. Was who he was as a person and why that fit the needs of the company so much.
然后，你从非常受欢迎的富巴顿·Expedia手中接过了交接权，他是那位创始人兼首席执行官之间的接班人，这是他之前就做过的。我们知道他将不得不从一个极受欢迎的Uber的特拉维斯手中接过接力棒，并成为他之后的CEO。所以我认为，对我来说，最重要的第一件事是他作为一个人的品质，以及为什么这样符合公司的需求。
And the second one was, which I think was deeply underappreciated. But Bill and I talked a lot about, which was capital markets, right? Dara understood capital markets. He understood the value of capital assets, both good and bad. He understood the need to raise money and how to raise money. He understood capital deployment. He understood efficiency and delivering profitable growth and free cash flow because Barry was, you know, you know, so so instrumental in driving that 99 2000 when the world melded down, it was Diller who found his way through the door. And Dara was the CEO of CFO of that company. And Uber at the time was hemorrhaging cash, needed to get rid of some divisions, needed to focus on the core. And so I think there was a lot of confidence and a great fit in terms of your capital markets background and the needs of Uber.
而第二个是我认为被严重低估的一个，但是比尔和我谈了很多，这个是资本市场，对吧？达拉对资本市场有着深刻的了解。他了解资本资产的价值，无论是好是坏。他了解筹集资金的需求以及如何筹集资金。他了解资本配置。他了解效率和实现盈利增长和自由现金流，因为贝里在1999年和2000年的时候，当世界崩溃时，他在推动这一切起了非常重要的作用。而达拉当时是那家公司的首席执行官兼首席财务官。而Uber当时正处于现金亏损的状态，需要摆脱一些业务部门，需要专注于核心业务。因此，我认为在您的资本市场背景和Uber的需求之间，存在着很大的信心和契合度。
The private kind of spending as much as you can to put off competition, like. That was not my comfort zone. You know, I was running a public company for 13 years and the public markets instill a discipline is instill a kind of return on, invest the capital discipline that that I was quite comfortable on. So I did have to play the game. I did have to dance, you know, to to the music, et cetera. But this is this is like this is a great environment for me personally, that I'm quite comfortable with. And I'm glad that we made the transition. I'm glad that we're in this environment, but that, you know, the free money environment. Some people had a party, but it wasn't a party for me. I'll tell you that.
在私人领域中，尽可能多地消费以避开竞争，这并不是我所乐见的。你知道，我经营一家公众公司已经有13年了，公开市场灌输了一种投资回报的纪律，这是我非常习惯的。所以我不得不玩这个游戏，跟着音乐舞动等等。但对我个人来说，这是一个非常适合我的环境，我很庆幸我们做出了这个转变，很高兴能处在这样的环境中，但你知道的，这种免费资金的环境。有些人狂欢了，但对我来说并不是个狂欢。我可以告诉你这一点。
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听着，不是每个企业都能获得风险投资。如果你没有这个能力，你就无法从风投机构那里融资。我们都知道这一点。而且，并不是每个人都有一个富裕的家庭成员来支持他们的亲友轮融资。所以，如果你想用5万美元来启动你的业务，让我告诉你关于Painbrush贷款的情况。Painbrush推出了一种新型贷款产品。他们将初创企业与银行资本联系在一起。所以你不需要放弃任何股权，也没有需要准备商业计划书或者收入要求。而且，Painbrush贷款可在创意阶段获得。事实上，你在注册公司的那一刻就可以申请了。每月还款金额是固定的，使现金流规划变得非常简单。所以，请行动起来。如果你是美国的创始人，去getpaintbrush.com看看你是否有资格在两分钟内获得5万美元的创业贷款。就是getpaintbrush.com，在两分钟内查看你是否有资格。
Uh, girly, I think this is sort of interesting for you and I to discuss having been there since the early days. It wasn't clear to everybody until they used the product that it was magical. I remember when I helped Travis raise the first million dollars for the company. I had 21 people at an event in San Francisco. And I said, okay, Travis, he says, what do I do? I said, just demo the product and then tell them how much you're raising. So a demo in front of 21 investors and the demo, Dara, you don't know the story. So you took out his phone and he just said, I'm ordering a cab. And then he said, Hey, everybody come to the window and everybody went to the window and they looked out the window and the cab was there. And then three people, I said, who wants to invest in three of us? Right. First round, I am a bad master myself. 19 people said no, it wasn't clear that this product was like as incredible as it was until you used it and actually started building it.
嗯，小姑娘，我觉得我们俩讨论这个话题还挺有趣的，因为我们从一开始就参与了其中。在大家使用了这款产品之前，它并不对所有人都很明显地表现出它的魔力。我还记得我帮助特拉维斯为公司筹集了第一百万美元。在旧金山的一次活动上，我邀请了21个人参加。当时我说，好吧，特拉维斯，他问我该怎么做。我说，先演示产品，然后告诉他们你要筹集多少资金。于是，在21位投资者面前进行了产品演示。达拉，你不知道这个故事。他拿出手机，说，我要叫一辆出租车。然后他说，嘿，大家来窗边看看。于是大家都走到窗边，看见出租车就停在那里。然后我的话是这样说的，谁愿意投资呢？我们三个。第一轮，只有我一个人筹集到了资金。其它19个人都说不行，大家直到亲自使用并开始构建它才发现，这款产品如此令人难以置信。
I'm curious in having watched the ZERP environment bill, it seemed obvious to me when I watched Uber go public and they were reporting, Oh, we lost a billion dollars this quarter. We did a billion rides and I just talked to myself, well, if you raised it, two dollars, would anybody stop taking Uber's answer was obviously no. So why do you think there was such a messaging problem, Bill, in terms of, could this company ever be profitable? Wasn't it obvious to you, Bill, that it would be?
对于观看零排放区域计划(ZERP)环境法案，我很好奇。当我看到Uber上市并报告称，“这个季度我们亏损了10亿美元。我们完成了10亿次乘车。” 我就自言自语地想，如果他们将价格涨两美元，有人还会坐Uber吗？显然答案是否定的。那么，你认为为什么会有这样的信息传达问题呢，比尔？难道不明显吗，比尔，这个公司有望盈利吗？
Well, there's a really interesting kind of mental math puzzle, which is I used to talk with Mike Mohsen about, which is, is a game theory question. But if you had two companies who both believed in network effects and they were going to compete against each other, how much would you spend to try and win?
嗯，有一种非常有趣的心算谜题，我以前常和迈克·莫森讨论过，它是一个博弈论问题。假设你有两家都相信网络效应的公司，它们将互相竞争，你会愿意花费多少来争取胜利呢？
And I think if you talk to game theorists, you'd spend right up until you die, like, because if you think it's winner, take all like that's how it's going to play out. And so to a certain extent, Mike and I had had that conversation prior to this environment showing up and then, and then the real world example played out in the middle of it, there were all kind of rationales that I think were wrong.
我觉得如果你和博弈论的人交谈，你会一直论道直至你死去，因为如果你认为这就是赢家通吃的情况，那就是游戏的规则。所以在某种程度上，我和迈克之前已经有过这样的对话，然后现实世界中的例子就在其中发生，有很多推理我认为是错误的。
But like one of them was people would say, oh, this is a natural duopoly or triop, like, like with no, it was just like airlines, like with no, no, no actual rationale behind it. They would just state that.
但其中一个观点是人们会说，哦，这是一种天然的两家或三家垄断现象，就像航空公司一样，没有任何实际的理由支持这种说法。他们只是这样陈述的。
And so, you know, and it was an effort, I think, but, but, but what finally happened, I think, as Dara mentioned, moving into an environment he's more comfortable with interest rates finally came up. Money quit being free.
因此，你知道的，这是一种努力，我想，但是，但是，但是最终发生的事情，我想，就像达拉所提到的那样，移入一个他更适应的环境，利率最终出现了。金钱不再免费了。
Thankfully, all the competitors went public, I think, because that helped. And everyone decided that they wanted to see profitability. And now, you know, I think you get into a position where you can see the power of the model, you know, and David, David Sachs did that great napkin drawing years ago that I put in several of my blog posts on Uber of why there would naturally be network effects, because the more users, the more drivers, the more drivers, the more coverage area, faster pickup times. It was meant to do this and it was meant to be profitable.
谢天谢地，我想所有竞争对手都上市了，因为这对助力有所帮助。而且大家都决定希望看到盈利。现在，你知道，我觉得你能够看到这个商业模式的力量，你知道，大卫·萨克斯几年前画的那张很棒的餐巾纸图，我在几篇关于优步的博文中都有插入，说明自然会有网络效应，因为用户越多，司机也越多，司机越多，覆盖范围就越广，接车时间也更快。它就是为了这个而存在，并且是为了盈利。
But when companies are losing shit tons of money and it was record levels of money, it's very easy for the press or whoever else to say. And look, there've been plenty of businesses, especially in like the commercial and stuff where they lose a ton of money and they are selling dollars, you know, are selling dollars for 90 cents and they can't get to profitability. So I think it's natural that people would have taken that mindset.
当公司正在亏损大量资金且达到创纪录的水平时，媒体或其他人很容易说。看，确实有很多企业，特别是商业领域，他们亏损了大量资金，他们以90美分的价格出售1美元，但却无法盈利。因此，我认为人们会自然而然地持有这种想法。
But it's been, I would tell you just as both as a shareholder and as a kind of an intellectual business strategist, I'm thrilled to watch this day finally arrived. It's, it is what I expected. But boy, it took a long time and it was frightening along the way.
作为一位股东和一位智力商业策略师，我非常高兴能够见证这一天的到来。正如我的预期一样，但是，天哪，这花费了很长时间，并且在过程中也感到了恐惧。
And Bill and Brad, I'm curious, just one, one comment. And this, do you think that the valuation has got into the mind of the finders or the founders or the companies? Because this is something that, you know, we were guilty of dancing as well. Right.
比尔和布拉德，我很好奇，就只有一个评论。你们认为估值是否已经渗透到了投资者、创始人或公司的思想中？因为我们自己也犯过这样的错误。没错。
And part of it came from, Bill, when you said this company can be worth a hundred billion, right? And this is pre IPO, it's at around a lot of people made fun of you and it's proven to be true. But like that goes into the back of my mind. Right.
这其中的一部分来自Bill，当你说这家公司可以达到1000亿美元价值时，对吗？而且这还是在上市前，许多人取笑过你，但事实证明你是对的。但是，这一点一直在我心里挥之不去。
And I'm like, how big do I have to be in order to prove Bill right? And then like you actually start to do things to fit the valuation that someone made up for you. And can that create or behavior, you know, oh my God, I've got to invest more in this business or oh my God, I have to be an autonomous and I can't depend on an autonomous kind of environment like the way that we are doing right now?
我就像在想，我需要变得多强大才能证明比尔是对的呢？然后你真的开始为了达到别人给你设定的价值而去做一些事情。这会不会引发某种行为，你知道的，哦天啊，我得在这个业务上投入更多，或者哦天啊，我必须要独立自主，不能依赖像我们现在这样的环境？
So is there this like double loop, which is not only is money free, but then founders and or seals have to do stuff to justify that elevated valuation. So they actually lose discipline to 100%. That is that is the negative reflexivity of an overpriced round.
所以说，是否存在这样一种双重循环，不仅金钱是免费的，而且创始人和/或公司必须采取行动来证明估值的提高。因此，他们实际上失去了100％的纪律。这就是过高定价偏差的负面循环反应。
I, you know, I just posted in our other thread, Jason, you know, this, this clip from Silicon Valley that's going viral. Oh, you're sitting at the bar and they're talking about money. I should have raised at a lower price. He's like, oh, if I had raised a lower price, I'd still have my job. The company would have survived. I wouldn't have had to lay anybody off. I wouldn't have had to spend money like a fool. Da, da, da, da, da, they nail it yet again.
我说，你知道的，我刚刚在我们之前的交流中发布了这个来自《硅谷》的剪辑，现在在迅速传播。哦，你坐在酒吧里，他们在谈论钱。我本应该以更低的价格筹资。他说，哦，如果我以更低的价格筹资，我还能保住工作。公司就不会倒闭。我也不用解雇任何人。也不用像个傻瓜一样花钱。啦啦啦，他们又一次抓住重点。
The negative reflexivity that occurs when you have a headline valuation, which by the way, barely saves any dilution for most of these companies. Like if you actually do the dilution math on it, it's really driven more by ego than it is by dilution. And we can, because most of these companies aren't raising that much money, but it, what it does is it forces the business strategy to fit that outcome and worse yet, Dara, not only do you have to get to that number, you have to double that number.
当你面临一则标题估值时，负面的反应性就会出现，顺便说一下，对于大多数公司来说，这几乎没有节约资金稀释的效果。如果你真的计算资金稀释比例，你会发现这更多是出于个人利益而不是资金稀释。尽管大部分公司筹集的资金并不多，但这种情况会迫使企业战略适应这样的结果，更糟的是，达拉，你不仅需要达到那个数字，还需要将其翻一倍。
So if the number is a hundred billion, you have to get to 200 billion. If the number is a billion, you got to get to 2 billion in order to raise your next round. So I think it's one of the most nefarious things that occurred in the ZERP environment. And in 20 and 21, I remember talking to founders and I would say, you're going to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory here.
所以，如果数字是一千亿，你就必须达到两千亿。如果数字是十亿，你必须达到两十亿才能筹集下一轮资金。所以我认为这是ZERP环境中最可恶的事情之一。在2010年和2011年，我记得曾与创始人们交流，我会说，你们将在胜利即将到手之际自取败亡。
You're over pricing your company. When interest rates go back up, which they will, as soon as COVID's over, multiples will adjust down. At that point in time, you're going to be forced to do a 30 to 50% down round and very few Silicon Valley companies, even the best ones survive the morale hit and all of the challenges associated with the down round of that size. And we've seen it happen. And in fact, we have over a thousand unicorns that are trying to work that out right now. A lot of these really good companies, but it's very tough when an Instacart has to go from 39 billion to six and a half billion.
你对你的公司定价过高。当利率回升时，它们将会回升，一旦COVID结束，倍数将会下调。到那时，你将被迫进行一个30%到50%的降轮融资，很少有硅谷公司，即使是最好的公司，能够在这样规模的降轮融资中挺过士气打击和所有相关挑战。我们已经见证了这种情况。事实上，我们有超过一千家正在努力解决这个问题的独角兽公司。有很多非常优秀的公司正在面临困境，但当一个Instacart（印度超市电商）被迫从390亿美元降至65亿美元时，情况非常艰难。
So another way to frame this, you know, that even before this all happened, this issue would come up is just and people that have been in public companies know this, but, but stock prices represent discounted future expectations. And so if you raise a huge round, the expectations in front of you are huge. And to your point, Brad, if you compound at a cost of capital of 15% over five years or whatever, it's a doubling. Like that's what you got to get to. And too many, I think founders lack of an understanding. It's really partially just financial, like understanding how financial markets work, right? And understanding, you know, and if you don't have that experience, you don't have that education, there's no way to know.
那么，用另一种方式来表述，你知道，即使在发生这一切之前，这个问题也会出现，这是有经验在上市公司工作的人都知道的。但是，股票价格代表的是对未来预期的折现。因此，如果你筹集了一笔巨额回报，你面前的期望也是巨大的。正如你所说，布拉德，如果你在五年内以15%的资本成本复利增长，那就是翻倍了。这是你所需要达到的目标。然而，我认为太多创始人缺乏理解。这在很大程度上只是理解金融市场运作的问题，而没有这方面的经验和知识，是不可能知道的。
Another thing that really complicates that this issue is secondaries. If founders are taking money off the table, I have found them to be remarkably singularly focused, let's say that. It can be a distraction. It can be a massive distraction. Yeah. Well, and they just get very price sensitive. Like it's, it's all about the price, all about price maximization and it's harder for them to think about these other issues that might affect the company in the future.
另一个使这个问题变得复杂的因素是二级市场交易。如果创始人获得了部分资金退出，我发现他们会非常专注于这一点。这可能会成为一种分散注意力的事情，甚至是一种巨大的干扰。是的。而且他们会变得非常关注价格。一切都是关于价格，关于最大化价格，这就让他们更难考虑到可能会对公司未来产生影响的其他问题。
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Do you guys think secondaries are going to be a thing in the past? Like when I grew up and I was not in the tech space, but in investment banking, etc. Like the founder didn't sell and then it became okay for the founder of sell. Do you think in this more expensive environment, etc. That's going to go the other way or no? When we went through the zipper world and there were people raising billion dollar funds left and right and they were begging their way into rounds. They were encouraging secretaries because the current investors didn't want to part with ownership and everyone was dilution sensitive. So it was the only way to get in the company. And it was it was even more nefarious, Bill. There were people who would use the secondary Dara to win the deal.
你们觉得二级市场会成为过去吗？就像我成长的时候，我不在科技领域，而是在投资银行等行业。创始人没有卖出股份，然后创始人出售股份变得可以接受了。你们觉得在这个更昂贵的环境下，会走相反的路吗？当我们经历过快速增长的时代，有人筹集了数十亿美元的资金，而且他们在各个方面都会争取加入某一轮。他们鼓励二级市场的出现，因为现有投资者不想与所有权割舍，而且每个人都对稀释非常敏感。所以这是进入公司唯一的途径。而且更糟糕的是，有些人会利用二级市场的资料赢得交易。
So imagine you're coming into a deal, Brad's offering, you know, whatever, a hundred million at a billion dollars post. And then, you know, I come in and say, I'll give you a hundred billion, a billion off posts, but I'm also going to allow you to sell 25, the founders to sell 25 million in secondary. And then those two things being in the same term sheet was insane when you think about the conflict of interest, right, Bill? Girl, I think. Yeah.
想象一下，你参与一笔交易，Brad提供了价值10亿美元的交易，他提出以10亿美元的后期价值提供1亿美元。然后，我进来说，我将提供10亿美元，并且让创始人可以在次级市场卖出2500万美元的股份。当你考虑到利益冲突时，这两个条件出现在同一份条款中真是令人匪夷所思，对吧，比尔？女孩，我觉得是的。
And look, I think it's still an issue today. I think in a, in, in, it is still very common across a broad array of companies. I think it's the number one thing that allows a company to stay private for a very long time because the, the thing that eventually causes a founder to almost be forced to go public is the employees eventually say, Hey, what about me? But some of these companies are doing broad base secondaries across the entire employee base almost on an annual basis. Yeah. SpaceX would be the, the prototypical company for this or stripe and Dara.
看，我认为这仍然是一个问题。我认为在很多公司中，这仍然非常普遍。我认为这是使一家公司能够长时间保持私有地位的首要因素，因为最终会导致创始人被迫上市的原因就是员工最终会说：“嘿，我呢？”但是这些公司中的一些几乎每年都在全体员工中进行广泛的二级市场交易。是的，SpaceX可能是典型的这种公司，或者是stripe和Dara。
I think to your question, when it's fair and it's, you know, I guess, Pari Parsoo and everybody gets to participate and it's modest and controlled. I think it's a benefit to the company because people will stay in long term, right? You're in your six or seven and you got to buy your house or put a down payment on it. It's, it's great. The problem was like, uh, Brad, you saw this up close, uh, in personal with Poppin, uh, which the founder took out 200 million. Yeah, that was peak zerp and then the founder wasn't motivated.
我认为对于你的问题，当条件公平合理，每个人都能参与并且控制适度的时候，我认为这对公司是有益的，因为人们会长期留在这里，对吧？当你工作了六七年后，你可以买房或者支付首付，这很好。问题是，啊，布拉德，你近距离亲眼目睹了这一点，比如Poppin公司的创始人提出了2亿美元。是的，那是zrep的巅峰时期，然后创始人就没有了动力。
I want to go to two issues. I've seen, I've seen that a lot. Like, like when founders get too much off the table, I mean, the bird example is a great example. And how much did that Travis take off the table? I think 50. I could be wrong. like we should do. I got to tell you, when the number starts equaling private aviation or second home, that's when I was super distracted. Whenever you start thinking about private aviation or a second house, it's very hard to focus at work.
我想谈两个问题。我已经看到了，我看到了很多类似的情况。比如，当创始人从公司中取得太多利益时，我觉得这只是一个很好的例子。Travis从中取了多少呢？我想是50%，但我可能记错了。就像我们应该做的一样。我必须告诉你，当数字开始等同于私人航空或者第二套房子的时候，我就会心烦意乱了。每当你开始考虑私人航空或者第二套房子时，很难专注于工作。
Darl, let's get to two really important questions for you. Uh, number one, I think one of the myths about and the attacks that Uber just constantly, even to this day, to a certain extent, there's some people going after this. Oh, they're abusing drivers. Oh, the drivers are making $6 an hour. It's below minimum wage, all this nonsense. And it was really people I remember during the private days. It was people of such bad faith because they would say, oh, somebody in this on demand world who's sitting at home waiting for a ride. They waited for a ride for three hours. They did a $10 ride. Therefore, four hours divided by, you know, $10 equals this, which is not how the on demand economy works. But despite that, the hourly rate has gone up 15, 20, 30, et cetera. There are minimums in certain markets. And the number of people choosing to work for Uber on a global basis is extraordinary. And companies like Apple, Walmart, Target, Starbucks are losing their employee base to people who want to work for Uber or DoorDash or any other on demand because it gives them flexibility and the rates have kept going up.
达尔，我们来谈一谈你的两个非常重要的问题。第一，我认为关于Uber的一种误解和攻击，甚至在某种程度上，现在仍然有人在攻击。噢，他们虐待司机。噢，司机每小时只赚6美元。这低于最低工资，全都是无稽之谈。在Uber成为上市公司之前，我记得有些人就是恶意攻击。他们会说，在这个即时服务的世界里，有人坐在家里等待乘车。他们等了三个小时才接到一个10美元的订单。然后他们就根据这个订单时长和收入进行计算，这并不是即时服务经济的运作方式。但尽管如此，每小时收入已经提高了15%，20%，30%等等。在某些市场上有最低工资标准。而且全球有越来越多的人选择为Uber工作，像苹果，沃尔玛，塔吉特和星巴克这样的公司正在失去员工，因为人们更愿意为Uber或DoorDash等即时服务公司工作，这使他们具有灵活性，并且报酬一直在增加。
So what's the truth, the honest truth about what drivers are making and how many drivers are in the network now when compared to Starbucks, Walmart, Target in those places? Because you've spent a lot of time with drivers now. That was a big part of your peacetime initiative was to empathize with drivers more. Yeah, it helped us build a better product. Like the service doesn't exist without drivers. And actually, I say drivers are the number one growth driver for the company. As we get more drivers, the network becomes more liquid. ETA's come down, surge comes down. Just the demand almost shows up. It's not that simple, but that's the most important element of our growth formula. So it wasn't just peacetime. I was like, I need to understand what it's like to drive for Uber. And by the way, it's a lot harder than it looks. Don't take the job that your drivers are doing for you for granted.
那么，关于司机们的实际收入以及目前网络上有多少司机，与星巴克、沃尔玛、目标等地相比，真相是怎样的呢？因为你现在已经花了很多时间与司机们在一起。这也是你在和平时期倡议中的一个重要部分，更多地去理解司机们的感受。是的，这有助于我们打造出更好的产品。因为没有司机，这项服务根本无法存在。实际上，我认为司机是公司最重要的增长驱动因素。随着我们拥有更多的司机，网络变得更加活跃，预计到达时间下降，高峰时段需求也下降。需求几乎会像魔术般出现。当然，并不是那么简单，但这是我们增长方案中最重要的因素。所以这不仅仅是和平时期所做的事情。我想了解开车给Uber的体验。顺便说一句，这比看起来的要难得多。请不要把司机们为你所做的工作视为理所当然。
And I think for us, the truth is drivers are making about 30% more than they were making five years ago, but so is everybody kind of, you know, so that that is the spot cost of labor. It's gone up, but drivers are absolutely doing better.
我认为对我们来说，事实是司机们的收入比五年前增加了大约30％，但几乎每个人的收入都有所增加，你懂的，因此劳动力的成本也增加了。虽然司机们的工资增加了，但他们的状况确实有所改善。
Our take rate, it's affected by revenue recognition and kind of merchant versus agency, et cetera. Kind of the true take rate of the mobility business has stayed flat around 20 to 21% for the past five, six years. And we want to grow the business without taking take rate up because it forces a discipline on the company in terms of cost structure, et cetera. You know, Bill, if he wants to talk about the, you know, rate too far, take too far, sort of speak. So we've kept that take rate flat. And while I do think we've got flexibility to take it up, we don't want to. That that's the last lever that that we want to use.
我们的抽成率受到了收入确认、商家和代理商之间关系等因素的影响。过去五六年，移动业务的真实抽成率一直维持在20%至21%左右。我们希望在不提高抽成率的情况下发展业务，因为这样可以迫使公司在成本结构等方面保持纪律性。如果Bill想要过多地探讨抽成率的问题，我们将保持沉默。因此，我们将抽成率保持不变。虽然我认为我们有可能提高抽成率，但我们不想这样做。这是我们最后不愿使用的手段。
Now, what is happening in the US, two things are happening in the US that I do think are affecting driver perception. And how they feel, which is real, that we haven't done a good enough job managing through and we have to do better. One is that on the driver side, instead of drivers getting paid a flat rate based on distance and time. In order for us to show drivers the upfront destination, we now essentially algorithmically price a specific ride.
现在，在美国发生了两件事情，我认为这两件事情正在影响驾驶者的感知和感受，而这是真实存在的。我们在这方面做得还不够好，需要做得更好。其中一件事是在驾驶者方面，我们不再根据路程和时间支付固定费用给驾驶者。为了向驾驶者显示目的地的费用，我们现在使用算法将特定的乘车费用确定下来。
So we tell you exactly where you're going and we price out the ride. And for example, if you're going to the suburbs and the boondocks, we will price more than what would the normal rate be because you're going to come back. Your utilization is going to be low. You're going to have a bunch of empty miles. If you're going from the airport to the center of SF and it's going to be really busy, we take a little bit off that rate for the driver to fund the other, the other route.
所以我们会告诉您准确的目的地，并给出价格。例如，如果您去郊区或偏远地区，我们会相对提高价格，因为您需要返回，因此利用率会较低，将会有许多空驶里程。而如果您从机场去旧金山市中心，并且路上非常拥挤，我们会稍微调低司机的费率，来资助其他路线。
So our average revenue margin stays the exact same. But by pricing these two trips differently, we're actually bringing in more demand into the network. And one of the things that we haven't handled well is for that trip into the city, a driver may notice that that price is lower than they're used to and our take may be higher for that price out into the boondocks. Our take rate is lower. Our average take rate is exact same. People tend to, you know, there's this other investors like they remember pain more than they remember doing well. Drivers tend to remember the trips where our take is might be higher than the ones that take as lower. So for example, we show drivers what's been our take rate for the past week, et cetera, to remind them that our take rate past day the same. But we've got to do a better job like it.
所以我们的平均收入利润率保持不变。但是通过对这两个行程进行不同定价，实际上我们为网络带来了更多的需求。我们没有很好地处理这样一个问题，即驾驶员可能会注意到进城的价格比他们习惯的要低，而我们的利润可能会在开到偏远地区时更高。我们的利润率较低。我们的平均利润率完全相同。人们倾向于更多记住痛苦而不是成功。驾驶员往往记得那些我们可能利润更高的行程，而不太记得那些利润较低的行程。因此，例如，我们向驾驶员展示了过去一周的利润率等，提醒他们我们的利润率没有变化。但是我们必须在这方面做得更好。
How many drivers now and what's the longevity of drivers? Is it a transient job or are people kind of sticking with this as a third of their income, part-time income? How would you describe? I know it's not one thing, but I know there's millions of drivers who are active. So how many drivers are active and how do they fall into buckets of sort of participation in the network as it were?
现在有多少司机，司机的工作寿命是多长？这是一种临时性工作还是人们把它作为他们收入的三分之一，或者是一种兼职收入呢？你能如何描述这种情况？我知道这不是一个简单的问题，但我知道有成千上万的司机在活跃。所以有多少司机是活跃的，他们如何参与到整个网络中？
We've got six and a half million drivers globally. Active drivers. It has active drivers globally. Our driver base has grown over 30% on a year on your basis. So we have a lot of drivers coming into the system. It's a great flexible work opportunity. The majority of drivers are part-time, but that changes. That's different geography to geography. So in a England where there's it's harder to become a driver, the regulatory burden is higher. A higher percentage of drivers tend to be full-time. In a Brazil, a lower percentage of drivers tend to be full-time. So you do have a mix of full-time part-time. The majority of drivers are part-time, but there's a core of full-time drivers that are very valuable to us who really understand the system, just as well as our top engineers do.
我们在全球拥有六百五十万名活跃司机。全球都有活跃的司机。我们的司机群体在年度基础上增长了30%以上。所以我们有很多司机加入到系统中。这是一个很好的灵活工作机会。大多数司机是兼职的，但这是随地域而变化的。所以在英国这样一个成为司机更加困难、监管负担更大的地方，有更高比例的司机是全职的。而在巴西，全职司机的比例较低。所以我们有兼职和全职司机的混合。大多数司机是兼职的，但我们还有一批全职司机对我们来说非常宝贵，他们对系统的了解程度与我们的顶级工程师一样高。
Now, the other issue that I do want to make sure that I cover too is the cost of commercial insurance in the US has gone up significantly. It's been a disaster. There was like a Wall Street Journal article about people not being able to get car insurance, you know, home insurance, etc. That, so in the US, our take rate, net of those insurance costs are less than 20%. They're 15, 16%. If you include that insurance cost, which is really just the pass through, they're north of 20%. And that is a pain that drivers are feeling. So in California, for example, commercial insurance costs have been increased by over 60% over the past two to three years. It's a huge increase. We've passed that on to riders. Most of that costs.
现在，我还想确保我也要涵盖的另一个问题是美国商业保险成本大幅上涨。这是一场灾难。像《华尔街日报》上有一篇文章说人们得不到汽车保险、家庭保险等等。所以在美国，我们的净利润率减去保险费用不到20%。它们是15、16%。如果你把保险费用算进去，那就超过20%。这是司机们感受到的痛苦。举个例子，在加利福尼亚，商业保险费用在过去两三年里增加了60%以上。这是一个巨大的增长。我们把大部分这些费用转嫁给了乘客。
Why has it gone up? Are there more accidents? Are there more claims, more litigious? It's more tort reform. People are incredibly litigious. You know, lawyers, fine, you know, people on Facebook, etc. So I think that there is work to be done in terms of, you know, these litigation costs are sky high for everybody. And we need to essentially get some control of that. And it does involve some regulations, etc.
为什么费用上涨了？是不是发生了更多事故？是不是提出了更多索赔，引起了更多的诉讼？这更多地涉及到侵权法改革。人们太容易诉讼了。你知道，律师，没错，还有人们在Facebook上等等。所以我认为在处理这些诉讼成本问题上还有需要努力的地方。我们需要采取一些控制措施，并且这需要一些法规等。
In Florida, for example, those costs are just too high and they're unfairly high. And a bunch of the court lawyers are getting that benefit. And if we can bring that cost under control, then prices for riders are going to come down. Demand is going to come into the system and drivers are going to make more. But that is absolutely one thing that's affecting perceived take rate in the US. And it's a bad, you know, it's a it's a bad trend that we're doing everything that we can to reverse.
例如，在佛罗里达州，这些成本实在太高了，而且不公平。而且许多法庭律师从中获得了利益。如果我们能够控制这些成本，乘客的价格就会下降。需求会进入系统，司机也会赚更多钱。但这绝对是影响美国所感知的利润率的因素之一。这是一个糟糕的趋势，我们正在竭尽所能来扭转它。
Is there a concept of self-insuring to certain extent or because Uber is such a scaled business? Could you buy an insurance business or somehow do this internally? We self-insure we self-insure a majority of the liabilities, but the liabilities are still there. Got it. Awesome.
在某种程度上，或者因为Uber是一个规模庞大的业务，是否存在自行承保的概念？你是否可以购买一个保险公司或通过其他方式在内部处理这个问题？我们在大部分的责任方面进行了自行承保，但这些责任仍然存在。明白了，太棒了。
Gurlie, you had some thoughts, I think, just on. Uber has a global question. Uber has a global company. As you scale Uber in, you know, as a truly global company, probably more global than even some of the Magnificent Seven. And you're also simultaneously driving down costs. I'm curious how you think about employment and specifically employment in Silicon Valley. And I was at a conference recently and a bunch of enterprise CEOs were talking in. They said the Valley is a great place to start a business, but a horrible place to scale a business. And they actively discussed moving headcount away from the Bay Area. And then I work with startups who have a lot. Ironically, their headcount, they're having the hardest time coming into the business, into the office by the ones in the Bay Area. And if you were going to hire a hybrid worker, the last place on Earth you would hire them is in the Bay Area because it's so expensive. So I'm just curious, you know, how you think about that big picture question.
妮儿，我想你对此持有一些观点。优步面临一个全球性问题。优步是一家全球性公司。随着优步作为一家真正的全球公司不断扩展规模，你也同时在推动降低成本。我很好奇你如何看待就业问题，特别是在硅谷的就业问题。最近我参加了一个会议，一群企业的首席执行官讨论到这个话题。他们说硅谷是一个很好的创业地，但是不适合业务规模的扩展。他们积极讨论将员工数量从湾区转移出去。然后，我与一些初创公司合作，他们面临很大的困难。具有讽刺意味的是，他们每次招聘的员工，在湾区的员工是最难上班的。如果你要雇佣一个混合工作者，地球上最不可能雇佣他们的地方就是湾区，因为那里太昂贵了。所以，我只是好奇，你如何看待这个大问题。
Yeah. The majority of our engineering headcount or technical headcount is in the Bay Area, SF, Sunnyvale, etc. And the fact is that there is great freaking talent in the Bay Area. And despite what some people say, it's great talent who works hard. Like our engineers, like I have to be careful. If I ask them a question on Thursday, they'll be up Saturday, 3 a.m. answering the question. And it's awesome. So the power and the talent that we have is great. That said, the majority of our growth in headcount is coming outside the Bay Area. And there are incredible town hubs, India, for example, in Brazil, Sao Paulo, for us, in Amsterdam. So we are actively looking to diversify our technical talent with a core of, you know, rock, star ninjas in the Bay Area. They really, like it is an excellent core. But just like we've diversified our business globally, we should diversify a talent based globally. And sometimes, you know, having talent outside of the Bay Area can actually help you build better product. And for us, you know, product touches, drivers, riders, it's very, very local. It looks really different in Brazil. So having an engineering team in Sao Paulo who sees our product translates there makes a lot of sense.
是的，我们工程师或技术人员的大部分人员都在湾区，比如旧金山、圣尼古拉斯等地。事实上，湾区有很多优秀的人才。而且，尽管有些人说的不同，这些人才都非常努力工作。就像我们的工程师一样，我必须小心。如果我在星期四问他们一个问题，他们会在星期六凌晨3点回答这个问题。这真是太棒了。所以我们拥有的能力和人才非常出色。话虽如此，我们人员增长的大部分来自湾区以外。在印度、巴西的一些城市，比如圣保罗，在阿姆斯特丹等地有一些令人难以置信的城市中心。因此，我们正在积极寻求多样化我们的技术人才，以湾区作为核心，拥有一支卓越的团队。但就像我们全球业务的多样化一样，我们应该全球化地多样化我们的人才。有时候，拥有湾区以外的人才实际上可以帮助你建立更好的产品。对于我们来说，产品与司机、乘客密切相关，很大程度上取决于当地情况。在巴西，看起来真的很不一样。因此，在圣保罗设有一个工程团队，他们了解当地情况并进行产品本地化是非常有意义的。
I have an important question about, you know, this cleanup work you did and divesting from a bunch of businesses. Well, that then leads to innovation and new businesses and new business lines. Right now, Uber, I believe we refer to as a three-legged stool, maybe not a four-legged one. Obviously, you have rides, mobility, you got food delivery. And then of course, you have Uber freight. And there's this fourth one. I noticed you ran a test and you and I talked about it. I was super excited about it of maybe workers and having Uber, you know, I called it Uber exec. But I think you guys are calling it something else. And in this test, and you've been public about the test, maybe you could talk about is there going to be a fourth leg to the stool? And then how do you think about innovation is now the time to think about launching new innovative products? Or is there just still so much growth left in terms of rides and food delivery in the competition with DoorDash and Grab and other places around the world that you should just stick to the three legs of the stool?
关于你们进行的清理工作和剥离多个业务，我有一个重要的问题。这样做会导致创新和新业务、新业务线的出现。现在，Uber被称为一个三腿的凳子，也许不是四腿的。显然，你们有搭车服务、移动服务，还有外卖送餐。当然，还有Uber货运。还有一个第四个业务。我注意到你们进行了一次测试，我们也谈过这个问题。我对这个测试非常兴奋，可能是关于雇员方面的，即Uber领导层服务。不过，我觉得你们现在用了其他的名字。在这个测试中，你们一直公开谈论，也许你可以谈谈是否会有第四个腿，以及你们如何考虑创新，现在是否是考虑推出新创新产品的时机？还是在搭车和外卖配送的领域，还有与DoorDash、Grab和其他地方的竞争中还有很大的增长空间，你们应该坚持这三条业务腿？
So I think that there might potentially be a fourth leg, but I don't have an agenda.
我认为可能存在第四个因素，但我没有任何特定的目的。
Listen, I want growth. I want innovation. I want to build cool shit. Right. And so the majority of the growth that you see, for example, in our mobility space, we have a bunch of new verticals, taxi, reserve, Uber for business, low-cost, high-capacity vehicles. All of these businesses have been built in the past five years. It's about $9 billion worth of GBs that literally has been built in the past five years by our engineers, by our product folks, etc.
听着，我想要成长。我想要创新。我想要打造酷炫的东西。对的。所以你看到的大部分成长，比如在我们的出行领域，我们有一系列新的垂直领域，出租车，预订服务，Uber商务服务，低成本、高容量的交通工具。所有这些业务都是在过去五年里由我们的工程师、产品人员等打造而成的，总价值约为90亿美元的全球业务。
That kind of innovation, which is kind of adjacencies that you have natural rights to win at. We, you know, who would have thought that Uber would now be powering New York City taxis, but that's a very natural adjacency for us, right? Like we have, you've got to tune the product. Now there's really important tunings, which is for taxis, they might be full, etc. So we sent a blast dispatch for taxis. We don't do a one to one match like we do with our drivers, because we know when a driver is when a car is open or not with taxis, we don't. So we send a blast dispatch there. The taxi who's open says, yes, the taxi who's not open says no. And we will work to integrate, by the way, with the taxi dispatch system. So we can be smarter about that. But that that's it's exciting. It scales. It's much less expensive to go into, etc.
这种创新，也就是与你所拥有自然竞争优势相邻的创新。谁能想到Uber现在会为纽约市的出租车提供动力呢？但这对我们来说是非常自然的一个领域，对吧？我们必须调整产品，进行一些非常重要的调整，比如针对出租车，它们可能是满载的，等等。所以我们给出租车发送了一次性的调度信息。我们与司机一对一匹配不同，因为我们知道司机的车是否空闲，但对于出租车我们不知道。所以我们向它们发送了一次性的调度信息。空闲的出租车回应“是”，而不是空闲的出租车回应“否”。我们还将努力与出租车调度系统进行整合，以便更加智能地处理这些情况。这是令人振奋的创新。它具有扩展性，进入该领域的成本也比较低等等。
Same thing with each getting into grocery or getting into the direct business where we deliver for an apple or a Walmart. These are great adjacencies. And the great thing about Uber is they're big, right? Groceries of five plus billion dollar business. It could be a 50 billion dollar business. Direct, you know, is billion dollar business. Multiple billions a dollar. So the reason why I'm a little neutral, as to the fourth leg is, there are very large opportunities right in my backyard. So that's the stuff that we are focusing on.
每个人进入杂货店或直接经营业务（例如为苹果或沃尔玛进行送货）都是一样的情况。这些都是很好的相邻领域。而Uber的好处在于它们非常大，对吧？杂货的市场价值超过50亿美元。直接送货业务价值数十亿美元。因此，我对于公司进一步扩大的可能性持中立态度，因为我周围已经有非常大的机会。所以这就是我们正在关注的事情。
But what you're talking about, which is this work platform, we do have a global work platform. It's better than any other work platform. And what we found is the more flavors of work we can offer someone, the more engaged they get with our platform. For example, in India, it's actually pretty cool. We have some of our drivers now working on an artificial intelligence labeling, right? We're from home or drive for Uber during the day. You have a mechanical type business in AI labeling. Yes. How quality mechanical Turk business they're building. It's a nice little adjacency. I'd love for it to get to a nice big adjacency. And so we are definitely working on different kinds of work because we do have this work platform, flexible work platform. That's absolutely second to not.
但是你所说的这个工作平台，我们确实拥有一个全球化的工作平台。它比任何其他工作平台都要好。我们发现，我们能够为某人提供越多种类的工作，他们就越能与我们的平台产生兴趣和参与度。例如，在印度，情况实际上相当酷。我们现在有一些司机在进行人工智能标注的工作。他们可以在家里工作，或者白天开Uber。你也可以建立一个机械领域的人工智能标注业务。是的。他们正在构建一个很不错的机械土耳其业务。这是一个不错的相关业务。我希望它能发展成一个很大的相关业务。因此，我们肯定在进行不同类型的工作，因为我们确实拥有这个灵活的工作平台。绝对不是次等的。
This is fascinating that I think, you know, in terms of a framework that I hadn't considered, there's one side, which is customers have the app and they have the super app experience. But on the other side, six and a half million people who you've vetted and have done jobs and have been rated, hey, what else could they do? And some of them might want to work from home. Hey, you know, I'm dropping my kids off, you know, and then I do a couple of Uber rides or deliver some food. But there's this other opportunity, hey, I'm home. My kids are doing homework or my kids are asleep. I can't leave the house, but I could do two hours of work. The Uber app gives me an alert. Hey, do you want two hours at X dollars per hour? Wow, that's quite brilliant. Our driver app is the closest thing, I think, to a Western super app there is, but not that many people see it. Most people don't see the driver. Don't see it. Yeah.
这真是太有趣了，我认为，你知道的，在一个我没有考虑过的框架中，有一方面是顾客拥有这个应用，他们享受超级应用的体验。但另一方面，有六百五十万经过你们核实过、做过工作并且得到评价的人，他们还能做什么呢？他们中的一些人可能想在家工作。嗨，你知道的，我送孩子上学之后，可能会做几次优步车或者送些食物。但还有这样一个机会，嘿，我在家里。我的孩子在做作业或者睡觉。我不能离开家，但我可以做两个小时的工作。优步应用给我发送一个通知，“嘿，你想要每小时X美元的工作吗？”哇，这真是太聪明了。我们的司机应用是我认为最接近西方超级应用的东西，但并不是很多人看到它。大多数人不知道司机这个角色。是的。
No, let's talk about super apps for a second. I know Uber had, we have Uber one, right, a membership. I think that's like an incredible product, but I don't hear too much talk about it from the company or from individuals. So maybe you could just talk a little bit about Uber one and then how that fits into everything that we're seeing.
不，让我们来谈谈超级应用吧。我知道Uber有一个，我们也有Uber一会员制，对吗？我认为那是一个非常棒的产品，但我没有听到公司或个人对它的太多讨论。所以也许你可以简单介绍一下Uber一，以及它如何与我们目前所看到的一切相契合。
It's not exactly rocket science, which is what we find is people who use more of our stuff tend to engage with our platform more. They tend to stay longer. They tend to spend more. And so we actually have Uber one, which is our membership program. It's growing very, very well. We'll have more to say about it and earnings coming up. So I don't want to say too much, but have you ever released the number of subscribers, the number or no? I think the last time it's 15 million and it's grown since. And more importantly, I look at the percentage of gross bookings that come from Uber one members.
这并不是什么高深莫测的科学，我们发现，使用我们产品更多的人往往会更多地参与到我们的平台中来。他们往往会停留更长的时间，花费更多的钱。因此，我们推出了Uber One会员计划，目前发展非常顺利。关于会员数量，我们即将发布财报时会有更多消息。所以我不想说得太多，但是你有没有公布过会员数量？我记得上次是1500万，而且会员数量还在增加。更重要的是，我关注的是来自Uber One会员的总订单额占比。
And for example, with Eats, it's getting to that 50% mark. And it is, it's priced the same exact as our competitors. And we have more content, which is there's you not only get delivery benefits, but you get mobility benefits. So over a long period of time, we think that'll be a winning strategy. But at the same time, we're constantly upselling people from a regular Uber ride to a reserve ride, for example, or from a ride to Eats, you just got home. Why don't you have dinner, etc. We'll give you $5 off.
例如，就拿Eats来说，它已经达到了50%的市场份额。而且，它的定价和我们的竞争对手完全一样。而且我们拥有更多的内容，这意味着不仅能享受送餐服务的好处，还能享受出行的好处。因此，从长远来看，我们认为这将是一个成功的策略。但与此同时，我们不断地向乘客推销从普通的Uber乘车到预订车辆的升级服务，或者从乘车转到Eats服务。比如你刚到家，为什么不吃晚饭呢？我们会给你$5的折扣。
And what's fun about those kinds of upsells is it used to be a bunch of people kind of sitting around table having ideas. Let's do this upsell. Let's do that upsell. And then it's like, let's put this percentage of inventory to, you know, upsell on safety, etc. All of that is now being driven by AI. All of it is being targeted. So, you know, we have Algos figuring out, you know, is Bill, will he take that upsell going to work for a coffee and will Brad take that upsell, which is, hey, if you order, because he's got a family, he's got kids, $50 order, you get 10% off, etc. So what it started with like a bunch of people with ideas. Now, oh, it's all algorithmic. And again, like, I have no idea what the algorithms are going to come up with. But we got more consumers, more services than anyone else, more upsells than any other player. That combination is a potent combination, even outside of membership.
还有什么有趣的是，关于这种附加销售的事情，以前都是一群人坐在桌子旁边提出想法。我们做这个附加销售，做那个附加销售。然后我们设定了一定比例的库存用于提升销售安全等。现在所有这些都由人工智能驱动。所有这些都是有针对性的。所以，你知道的，我们有算法来判断比尔会接受那个提升销售的咖啡，布拉德会不会接受那个提升销售，因为他有家庭，有孩子，加上他的订购金额是50美元，可以享受10%的折扣等等。所以最初只是一群人的想法，现在，哦，全都是由算法驱动的。再次强调，我不知道算法会产生什么样的结果。但我们拥有比其他任何人更多的消费者、更多的服务和更多的附加销售。这种组合是一个强大的组合，即使在会员资格之外。
Is that happening with AI right now? Or is it, you know, Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. It's, it's, you know, that the team is, and you always start with simple algorithms and that Algos get more complex. But the idea is what's the next best thing, right? What is here's Jason? What is the next? What's that pixel that we can optimize? Because any pixel that upsells you something takes away from your base experience.
现在人工智能真的发展到了这个地步吗？还是说，你知道的，噢，是的。是的。你知道的，团队总是从简单的算法开始，然后算法变得更加复杂。但是目的是什么？下一个最好的东西是什么？这里是Jason，接下来是什么？那个像素怎么优化呢？因为任何一个像素向你推销什么东西，都会削弱你的基础体验。
And ultimately, where we came from the realm of design and opinion, we're going to realm of data. And it's just a much better place. Hey, Dar, with, with your mentioning AI, that we've been through this period where I think everyone got super excited, right? And video stock went up and everyone dove in and everyone told every CEO, you got to do it in every department and all this. And I think, I think we're moving towards a more rational mindset of like, where's this stuff really fit? Where does it really add value? Where do you really get ROI? What's happening inside of Uber? And where do you think the big early winds up?
最终，我们从设计和观点领域来到了数据领域。而这是一个更好的地方。嘿，达尔，你提到了人工智能，我们之前经历了一段时间，我觉得每个人都非常兴奋，股价上涨，每个人都跃跃欲试，告诉每个CEO，你必须在每个部门都使用它。我认为，我们正在朝着更加理性的思维方式迈进，就像我们真正适用这种东西的地方在哪里？它真的增加了价值吗？在Uber内部发生了什么？你认为哪里是最早获得成功的地方？
So I think one, one no brainer when is developer productivity. So we are in, and listen, it's, it's, it's actually, it sounds easier than it is, because we have a bunch of developers and they're like, listen, I'm working hard enough. Don't tell me use this thing. Don't tell me how to do my job. Just let me do my job. Let me get my gifts and et cetera. So the, we now have a subset of our developers who are power users of GitHub co-pilot. And it is excellent. And so the job now is to, to, and it's, and it's truly adding productivity. But we now have to sell it from like 20% of those power users to 50% to 80%. And, and you shouldn't take that for granted by like, why can't you do that tomorrow? Because we want developers to do their day jobs while they're training on how to get more productive.
我认为，其中一个不用考虑的因素就是开发者的生产力。嗯，听着，这个问题实际上比较容易解决，因为我们有很多开发者，他们会说，“听着，我已经很努力地工作了。别告诉我用这个东西。别告诉我怎么做我的工作。就让我做我的工作吧。让我发挥我的才能等等。”因此，我们现在有一部分开发者是GitHub co-pilot的超级用户。它非常棒。现在的任务是，将这个比例从20%提高到50%甚至80%。不要认为这是理所当然的，以为为什么明天就不能做到？因为我们希望开发者在培训提高效率的同时能继续完成他们的日常工作任务。
That's one angle. It's absolutely going to happen. It's, it will be a home run for everybody. And it will, it'll, it takes some of the kind of BS work away from developers so they can truly be creative. So I do think it's a, it's a win, win, win.
这是一方面。它绝对会发生。对每个人来说，这将是一个巨大的成功。它会减少开发人员不必要的繁琐工作，使他们能够真正发挥创造力。因此，我认为这是一个三赢局面。
Next for us is customer service, which is, you know, actually for Uber, right? When you call in, we have to know what kind of customer you are, because there's a lot of fraud in the system. There are a lot of people taking advantage of the system. Second, we have to understand the context, what happened, you know, to Bill in terms of his food didn't, he said he didn't go as food. Is that true or not? And the third is what's the policy and the policy is going to be different place to place. All the way we're trying to make that more consistent. A human being has to go through all that.
我们接下来要做的是客户服务，这其实是针对Uber的，你知道吗？当你打电话来的时候，我们必须知道你是什么类型的顾客，因为系统中存在很多欺诈行为。很多人在利用这个系统。其次，我们必须了解情境，比如对于比尔来说，他说他的餐品没有送达。这是真的还是假的？第三点就是政策，而政策在不同地方会有所不同。我们一直在努力使这些政策更加一致。所有这些都需要人来逐一处理。
Now, essentially, and we take it in steps, right? First step is AI summarizes all of it. So it's in a nice little package. Now the AI not only summarizes it, but gives a recommendation to, to the customer service agent. We look at those recommendations, so they write, are they wrong? And eventually, we'll be able to move much more of the customer service to, to AI as well. So that's another one.
现在，基本上我们会采取分步骤的方式，对吧？第一步是人工智能（AI）对所有内容进行概括，让其变得简洁明了。现在AI不仅会概括，还会向客服代理提供建议。我们会查看这些建议，确认它们是否正确。最终，我们将能够将更多的客服工作转移到AI身上。这是另一个方向。
We are building out customer facing products as well for eats, some cool stuff. My instinct is the next 24 months are going to be much more focused on backend stuff. On the customer facing side, it's still too slow. Like, you know, our responses have to be in milliseconds. And there's, you know, even very small delays can, can cause drop off, etc. But I'm confident that the customer side is going to come in. And this is a big wave. It just may be a little bit slower than some people expect. But the backend stuff is, is dynamite.
我们正在为外部客户构建一些很酷的外卖产品。我的直觉是未来的24个月将更加专注于后台工作。在客户面前，进展仍然太慢。就像你知道的，我们的响应时间必须在毫秒级。即使是很小的延迟也会导致用户流失等问题。但我相信客户端的进展会到来的。这是一次大的浪潮，只是可能比某些人预期的要慢一些。但后台工作是非常出色的。
And Dara, are you, are you building custom models to help drive these? I mean, you mentioned GitHub co-pilot, obviously a Microsoft product. But are you, I'm just curious, there's this debate in the LLM land, whether everything's going to be large frontier models. What I hear from a lot of companies is that those are very expensive. And they have to figure out how to do this within the context of a, you know, expense side of their business that makes sense. So I'm just curious, are you using open source? Are you customizing or are you doing a combination thereof?
Dara，你在构建自定义模型来推动这些吗？我的意思是，你提到了GitHub co-pilot，显然是Microsoft的产品。但我很好奇，LLM领域存在着这样的争论，即一切是否都将变成大型开拓模型。我从很多公司那里听说，这些模型非常昂贵。他们必须找出如何在具有实际意义的商业环境中进行此类操作。所以我只是好奇，你是否使用开源技术？是进行定制，还是两者结合使用？
Right now, all of the buffs. So we have an application layer that is our own layer layer and we can plug in public models, open source models, and we work with all of the larger players. And I actually think the answer is going to be all the buff. There's certain highly idiosyncratic use cases where a smaller custom built model will be the right solution. And then for, I think, a GitHub co-pilot, etc. It might be you want more general models and some of these larger models. So I don't think it's going to be an if, if, or it's going to depend on the circumstance. I think we're going to use all that.
现在，我们拥有所有的增益。所以我们有一个我们自己的应用层，它是我们自己的层次结构，我们可以接入公共模型、开源模型，并与所有大型参与者合作。实际上，我认为答案将是所有的增益。在某些高度特殊的用例中，较小的定制模型可能是正确的解决方案。对于GitHub co-pilot等，可能需要更通用的模型和一些较大的模型。所以我认为这不会是一个假设，而是会取决于具体情况。我认为我们将使用全部的增益。
Like they, they are, you know, and when you're dealing, we're, we're a little bit of a unique piece, which is our data sources are changing and are so variable so quickly that these AI models are quite, quite powerful with data sets that generally don't change. And for us, sometimes like we're going to have to layer models on top of each other in order to get that right customer interaction.
就像他们一样，他们，你懂的，而当你在处理时，我们，我们是一个有点独特的存在，这是因为我们的数据源在不断变化且变化迅速，所以这些AI模型对于通常不变的数据集来说非常强大。对于我们来说，有时我们需要将模型叠加在一起，以获得正确的客户互动。
Moving down the docket here as we, as we go, Bill, I saw on the Twitter that you are taking a book. Is it a cool X now? Oh, yeah, sorry on X. Yeah, exactly. Your post, your post on X. I reposted your post. But you're going to join the board of Zillow. That's interesting, Rich Barton, obviously a friend of everybody here on the pod. What you're thinking there, and is this going to be the trend? You're going to go back on the Uber board or you just start being public boards again?
在继续我们的议程之前，我发现在Twitter上你正在读一本书，是一本很酷的X吗？噢，是的，对不起，我是在谈论X。没错，你的帖子，我转发了你的帖子。但是你计划加入Zillow董事会，这很有趣，Rich Barton显然是我们这里每个人的朋友。你对此有什么想法，这会成为一种趋势吗？你会重新加入Uber董事会，还是打算再次成为公开董事会成员？
As the world knows, because I've announced it like a couple of years ago, I stopped doing new investments. So I've taken boards historically as part of my day job and as part of investing. And as I look towards the future, you say, what board would you take just because it's interesting to you as an independent human and not as a venture capitalist. And here's a board that I've had an experience on Rich and Lloyd and the entire team are just remarkable. The level of the strategic conversations that are ahead in that boardroom are very different from other places I've been. They are both engaged as founders, despite being a decade in, they're hungry. They look at the, we're talking about the magic of the Uber app. My partner, Matt Kohler, used to say that the smartphones, they remote control for your life. And the phrase one click, like, can you one click something? And one clicking an Uber ride, or an Uber meal to you is a magical experience. But the real estate industry is still far from a one click. If you've been to a transaction, all the different pieces of paper you have to fill out, visits, things you have to schedule, there's still quite a bit of opportunity for innovation. And so I'm excited to be back in the room with that incredible team and board. But also because I know Rich and Lloyd are so hungry still at this point in their career, it's an exciting problem to go work on also.
众所周知，我在几年前就已经宣布停止进行新的投资。因此，作为我的日常工作和投资的一部分，我一直担任董事会成员。展望未来时，你可能会问，你会选择哪个董事会，仅仅因为它对你作为一个独立的个体来说是有趣的，而不是作为一名风险投资家。这个董事会是我拥有丰富经验的董事会，其中的理查德和洛伊德以及整个团队都非常出色。在那个董事会室里，战略性的讨论水平与我曾经参与的其他地方非常不同。尽管已经过去十年，他们仍然像创始人一样投入，他们渴望进步。我们正在谈论优步应用的魔力。我的合作伙伴马特·科勒曾经说过，智能手机是你生活的遥控器。一个点击就可以实现某件事的概念，像在优步上一键打车或订餐对你来说是一种神奇的体验。但房地产行业仍然离实现一键操作非常遥远。如果你曾经进行过一次交易，你就会明白你需要填写各种文件、安排访问、预约等等，这里仍然存在着创新的机会。因此，我很高兴能够再次与这个令人难以置信的团队和董事会共同工作。而且因为我知道理查德和洛伊德在职业生涯的这个阶段仍然充满渴望，这也是一个令人兴奋的问题去努力解决的。
Are you on the boardroom? Sorry, you may not be able to talk to this, but do you think this realtor, the antitrust case, is that a good thing or a bad thing for Zilla?
你在会议室里吗？抱歉，也许你不能发表意见，但你认为这位房地产经纪人涉及反垄断案对Zilla来说是好事还是坏事？
My gut, and I'm not a lawyer. But my gut is that if anything, it's probably a positive. I think the NAR operates as a pseudo monopoly. They've been accused of that a lot by the different governmental agencies and can create constraints. And if you look at countries where there's not a NAR, I think you typically see more innovation and more more market cap per home for the leading real estate player than you do here in the US. And for people who don't know, National Association of Real Estate is NAR, and they just had a giant $1.8 billion judgment against them based on it.
我的直觉，我不是律师。但是我的直觉是，如果有什么影响的话，可能是积极的。我认为NAR运作得像个伪垄断组织。他们一直被不同的政府机构指责，并且能够制造限制。如果你看看那些没有NAR的国家，你会发现领先的房地产公司通常比美国拥有更多创新和更高的房屋市值。对于不了解的人，全国房地产协会就是NAR，他们刚刚因此被判决付了18亿美元的巨额赔偿。
As an example, the ridiculous document that you're handed by a realtor every time you want to buy a house, that is a creation of NAR. And the primary objective function of that document is to protect your realtor from liability. And that's why you have to sign it on all 35 pages and initial five different times on inside the 35 pages. And that's all about the realtor. And it's not about the consumer. And so that's the kind of thing that I think you could see innovation that would be pro-consumer and better for the industry.
举个例子，每当你想要买房，房地产经纪人总会递给你一份荒谬的文件，这就是美国全国房地产经纪人协会（NAR）的一个创作。而该文件的主要目标是保护你的房地产经纪人免受责任。这也是为什么你需要在所有35页上签字，并在这35页中的五个不同地方进行认证的原因。这一切都只是为了房地产经纪人，而不是为了消费者。因此，这就像是一种我认为可以带来对消费者有利且对行业更好的创新。
It was extraordinary to think. I don't know if you guys have ever done a private market transaction, but I bought a home in a private market transaction. It was $12,000 initially, and then there was like a $3,000 upsell from my real estate attorney. And this was for a non-insignificant home, my primary residence. And I am now hated by real estate agents everywhere in my location, because what would have been hundreds of thousands of dollars in commission, I just bought the house from my friend. I spent $15,000 total on the purchase of the home, and there was no commission.
这令人惊讶地想到。我不知道你们有没有做过私人市场交易，但是我在私人市场交易中买了一套房子。最初价格是12000美元，然后我的房地产律师又加价了3000美元。而且这是一套并不低价的主要住所。现在，在我所在地的房地产经纪人们都讨厌我了，因为原本他们能从这笔交易中拿到几十万美元的佣金，但我只是从朋友那里买了房子。我总共花了15000美元购买这套房子，而没有支付佣金。
No, I'm going back to even before I invested in Uber, I looked at a lot of the companies that were starting in taxis. And because of the tax in the taxi authority, your flexibility around price, and how you get the app in the car, all that was regulated in a way that prevented flexibility of innovation. And so that's, I just think if anything less than our means more innovation.
不，我要回到甚至在我投资Uber之前的时候看看很多开始进入出租车行业的公司。因为出租车管理局对于出租车的价格灵活性以及车内应用程序等方面的限制，阻碍了创新的灵活性。所以我认为，任何限制都会导致更多的创新。
Yeah, the other piece of this, and I was on that board with Bill and Rich, and for probably between 2005, when we led the series B in 2010 or shortly before they went public, as soon as chat GPT came out, and this is, Bill said that they've been at this for a decade. They've actually been out of for two decades now. It's extraordinary to see founders in the case of Rich Barton and Lloyd Frank, who care as much. And why do they care so much in this moment? Chat GPT comes out, Rich Barton, text Bill, and I, and said, hey, I want you guys to come to an executive offsite with me. We're going to red team, blue team, AI. What is the impact that AI is going to have on 10 blue links? What is the impact that AI is going to have on vertical search? We're a major vertical search engine that lives in this larger ecosystem. And we think that this might be changing everything. And so I tweeted about this at the time, and Rich gave me permission to do it. But the blue team was this idea, how do we make our existing team better? How do we just go through the list of all the things we do, customer service, all the things Dara talked about, co-generation and make it better? Red team was this idea is, if we were starting today with the power of LLMs, and we wanted to put the magic of the world's best realtor in your pocket, what would it look like? And that to me, that story just captured the founder led journey of a company like Zillow with Rich. He's not 20 years in resting on his laurels thinking, I've done great. And now it's just time to serve like, we are all enthusiastic to see what AI is going to do to actually put the power of that one click, the power of that remote control in everybody's pocket. And for those of you who don't know, red team, blue team, it's like a generally a cyber, I think the origin is cyber security. Blue team tries to protect, red team tries to attack, and you get you get both teams making a company more secure.
是的，还有另外一件事。我和比尔和里奇一起在董事会上，大概从2005年开始，直到2010年他们上市之前不久，当Chat GPT一推出时，他们已经在这一领域经营了十年，这是比尔说的。他们实际上已经在这个领域摸爬滚打了20年。看到像里奇·巴顿和洛伊德·弗兰克这样的创始人如此关心，这真是非常非凡。他们为什么在这个时刻如此关心呢？Chat GPT问世之后，里奇·巴顿给比尔、我发短信说，嘿，我希望你们和我一起参加一次高层会议。我们要以红队、蓝队的方式来评估人工智能的影响。人工智能对于10个蓝色链接会有什么影响？人工智能对垂直搜索会有什么影响？我们是一个重要的垂直搜索引擎，生存在更大的生态系统中。我们认为这可能会改变一切。当时我在推特上发了一条相关的推文，并得到了里奇的允许。但蓝队的目标是如何让我们现有的团队变得更好？我们如何逐项审查我们所做的所有事情，包括客户服务、达拉谈到的所有事情，以及协同生成，如何让它们变得更好？红队的目标是，如果我们今天从头开始拥有LLMs的能力，并希望将世界上最好的房地产经纪人的魔力放在你的口袋里，那会是什么样子？对我来说，这个故事完美地捕捉了像Zillow这样的公司在创始人带领下的旅程。里奇不是已经在这行业摸爬滚打了20年，以为自己已经做得很好，现在只需要服务。我们都怀着热情期待人工智能会如何实现把一个点击、一个遥控器的力量放在每个人的口袋里。如果你们不了解红队、蓝队，它基本上是一个关于网络安全的概念。蓝队负责防御，红队负责攻击，两个团队共同使公司更加安全。
Maybe we could wrap here, since we have Dara and talk a little bit about markets and just where we're at in terms of, I saw the interest rate print was a little bit hotter, I think. I'm sorry, the inflation print was a little bit hotter than people thought it might be concerning, not concerning. And then maybe we'll go over to you, Dara, just in terms of how do you, how does this stuff impact you as a CEO?
也许我们可以到此为止，因为我们有达拉在这里，可以稍微谈一下市场情况，以及我们目前所处的位置。我看到利率数据显示的通胀略高于人们的预期，我认为这或许引起了一些关注，或者说并没有引起关注。然后也许我们可以转向你，达拉，就你作为首席执行官如何看待这些情况的影响。
It's amazing as we look over the last five years. I think all of us spend our time thinking about technology, super cycles, internet, mobile, cloud, AI, how that's going to change the world. But really, since the start of COVID, we've all been overwhelmed by macro, right? Like, you know, Dara had to lay off 25% of the company, not because anything idiosyncratic about marketplaces or mobile or anything else, but we were fighting a global pandemic and rates went negative. And so, as we come out of this, I think it's important for us to keep our eye on that prize and understand, and Dara and I talk about this often, is the world look normalized or not?
回顾过去的五年，真是令人惊叹。我想我们所有人都花了很多时间思考技术、超级周期、互联网、移动、云、人工智能，以及它们将如何改变世界。但事实上，自从新冠疫情开始以来，我们都被宏观因素淹没了，对吗？比如，你知道达拉不得不裁员公司25%，不是因为市场或移动等其他方面出现了什么特殊情况，而是因为我们正在与全球疫情作斗争，利率也出现了负值。所以，当我们走出这个阴影时，我认为我们应该把握那个目标，并理解其中的意义。达拉和我经常谈论这个，世界是否会回归正常状态。
And I think if you look at that first chart that I shared with Nick, just the CPI glide path, you know, there's really nothing to see here today. There was some noise this morning that it came in a little bit hotter. But I mean, if you just look at this longitudinally, right, where the dotted line represents the consensus forecast of where inflation is going to go. And Bill and I talk about this all the time. Of course, nobody knows with any degree of accuracy exactly where it's going to go. But I think it's important to understand what's baked into the cake.
我认为如果你看一下我与尼克分享的第一张图表，就是CPI的滑行路径，今天其实并没有什么特别的。今天上午有些噪音表示通胀有点高涨，但是如果你从长期来看，意思是虚线代表通胀预测的共识。比尔和我经常讨论这个问题。当然，没有人能够准确地知道通胀会走向哪里。但是我认为了解这个问题中的已知因素是很重要的。
If you go to that second chart, Nick, we've talked about this a lot tenure tips. This measures the restrictiveness in the economy. So effectively think about what is the future interest rate less the future inflation rate. And as you can see, whereas restrictive really, as we've been since 2008 and 2009, this is above the Fed's neutral rate. That's why, you know, the third chart I sent you, which is what is the Fed funds projection? We expect rates to come down this year. So if you just look at the Fed, the Fed's own forecast, a point and a half, and 1.5% positive growth on GDP, you know, that inflation is going to follow that consensus curve. And that rates are going to come down. That to me is the backdrop for a very healthy economy.
如果你看一下第二张图表，尼克，我们已经讨论了很多关于终身聘用的提示。这里衡量了经济的限制程度。所以实际上是指未来利率减去未来通胀率。正如你所看到的，自2008年和2009年以来，我们的限制程度一直很高，这超过了美联储的中性利率。这就是为什么我给你发的第三张图表，显示了美联储基金利率的预测。我们预计今年利率会下降。所以如果你只看美联储自己的预测，一点五个百分点，以及国内生产总值增长1.5%，你知道通胀会跟随这个共识曲线。利率将会下降。这对我来说是一个非常健康经济的背景。
Now, of course, there's a lot of stuff that can go wrong. But you know, yesterday, I think it was Fed's Williams was out and he said, listen, I think rates are high enough, restrictive enough. Remember, every month that inflation goes down, the effective restrictiveness of the economy goes up, holding all else equal. So you got to take rates down just to keep it at the same level of restrictiveness. And so I think that's where we're seeing, you know, we started the year Mag 7 was down 10, 15%. There's a bunch of jitters around interest rates. They popped up from 3.5% back to 4%. So we're coming out of this from my perspective, from the cheap sheets, cheap seats. It seems like we're on the glide path. Things are normalizing. And that, you know, for a CEO like like Dara, there's a lot of predictability in the world, hell of a lot more than there's been over the last four years.
当然，有很多事情可能会出错。但是昨天，我记得是Fed的威廉姆斯出来说，我觉得利率已经够高了，够限制的了。记住，每个月通胀下降，经济的有效限制性就会增加，其他条件不变。所以你必须降低利率，才能保持相同的限制水平。所以我认为这就是我们观察到的情况，你知道，我们年初开始时，Mag 7下跌了10到15％。对利率产生了许多不安。利率从3.5％上升到4％。所以从我的角度来看，从廉价的座位上看，似乎我们正在逐步走向正常化。事情正在变得可预测。对于像达拉这样的CEO来说，世界上的可预测性要比过去四年多得多。
And I guess I've kicked it over to you, Dara, is that the way that you see it relative to the challenges you've had trying to manage the business through the ZIRP period of the last few years?
我猜我已经把话题转给你了，达拉，你觉得你在过去几年的零利率政策期间努力管理企业时遇到的挑战是否是这样的？
That very much. I mean, I can't comment on rates and where they're going, but we had to fight, we felt inflation hugely post COVID, which is the cost of bringing drivers up, the cost of labor. And we have to translate that into more expensive rides, etc. If you look at this year, we have actually actively been trying to keep the cost of rides lower. And essentially, it's been flat. We've been working with our restaurant partners. If the Conmi weekends, you know, building out a tool set of kind of merchants able to fund promotions to being prices down. So like the focus of our business is how do we create a win-win and try to keep prices down for riders and keep prices down for eaters and really drive volume through the system as much as we can. And I say so far, so good. We haven't seen, you know, let's say inflation rearing its ugly head again. But I've seen a lot of very fast changes in the marketplace, so I take nothing for granted.
非常感谢这个问题。我的意思是，我无法评论利率和走势，但在疫情后我们不得不努力抗击通货膨胀，这是提升司机水平的成本，劳动力成本。我们不得不将这些成本转化为更昂贵的乘车费用等等。如果你看今年，我们实际上一直在努力降低乘车成本。实际上，我们一直与我们的餐厅合作伙伴合作。在Conmi周末，我们为商家提供了一套工具，能够资助促销活动以降低价格。因此，我们的业务重点是如何实现双赢，尽量降低乘客和吃货的价格，并且尽可能推动系统的交易量增长。我可以说到目前为止一切都还不错。我们还没看到通货膨胀再次抬头的情况。但是市场变化非常快速，所以我对任何事情都不敢掉以轻心。
By the way, I wanted to give a little nod to Brad. I thought using the word glide path in a CPI slide is very suggestive, but soft landing is like a really good first subtle language. Yes.
顺便说一下，我想给Brad一个小小的点头。我认为在CPI幻灯片中使用"滑行路径"这个词非常暗示性，但"软着陆"就是一个非常好的第一个微妙的措辞。是的。
I mean, listen, listen, let's be clear. He's hoping the Fed listens to this. Just listen. I know that there's a delight. I know there's some people who told us to go into cash at the beginning of last year. Some people in our group who said hard landing Mike Wilson Q1 going to cash. And then surprisingly, even at the end of the year, they thought that that was a good decision. Five percent on cash versus 30 to 40 percent in the market seems like a pretty bad decision to me. And I think it'll be a bad decision again this year. That's not to say that there aren't risks in the world. But when I look at the balance of risk, I would say that these seem like pretty decent environments, whether it's soft or medium or whatever. I think it's a pretty decent environment for for for Dara to build the business this year. So with that, thanks so much, Dara for coming on and being so candid with us.
我的意思是，听着，听着，让我们明确一点。他希望美联储能听到这一点。只要听一下。我知道有一种满足感，我知道有些人告诉我们去年初要转为现金。我们小组中有些人说，第一季度会出现硬着陆，所以要转为现金。然后令人惊讶的是，即使到年底，他们仍认为这是一个明智的决定。现金的回报率只有5%，而市场可以达到30%到40%，对我来说，这似乎是一个相当糟糕的决定。我认为今年再次做出这样的决定也是个糟糕的选择。这并不是说世界上没有风险。但当我审视风险的平衡时，我认为这些看起来是相当不错的环境，不管是轻微的还是中等的什么样。我认为这是Dara今年发展业务的一个相当不错的环境。因此，在此感谢Dara的到来，并对我们非常坦诚。
GIRLY, GIRSNER, you're incredible. And none of this is investment advice. Make your own decisions. Do your own underwriting disclaimer, disclaimer, disclaimer. We all are absolute degenerate gamblers at the poker table and thoughtful bettors on public markets. That does not mean you should do what we do. I have watched GIRLY lose his entire staff with a pot of set to lunatics who hit runner runner. I've seen GIRSNER lay down pocket aces to people with seven high. Do not follow us in making bets. Make your own goddamn decisions. Reminder yourself. Don't go to Vegas with any of this group. Thank you.
GIRLY, GIRSNER，你们太棒了。并且这里面都不包含任何投资建议。你要自己做决定。自己进行核保声明，声明，声明。我们在扑克桌上是绝对的赌徒，在公开市场上是深思熟虑的投注者。但这并不意味着你应该做我们所做的。我曾亲眼看到GIRLY输掉了他所有的筹码，因为疯子们连续发牌。我也见过GIRSNER放弃手里的两张A，输给了手上只有一对7的人。不要追随我们的赌注。做你自己该做的决定。提醒自己。千万别和这群人一起去拉斯维加斯。谢谢。
Dara, do you have an interest in learning poker? Because we know you have a little bit of money to put to work now. My daily job as a gamble, you know, kind of running this company called Uber. So after that, I like to just stay still. Oh, you know, one thing I didn't ask you is, it's one more thing there. This is my Colombo after I do the outro. Drizzly Postmates, you did a couple of acquisitions years ago. The market's been closed for acquisitions. Do you just put that out of your mind or are bankers calling you about acquisitions? What do you think is going to happen the next two or three years? Or do we have to wait for a regime change, lean a con to get out of there for maybe acquisitions to happen again? Is it even on your radar? Do you think about it? Listen, it should always be on a radar. But one thing that I've learned with Uber is running a business and trying to integrate other businesses into a two-sided marketplace is really hard. And the organic path for the company is great unless I screw it up. But it looks great. So the cost of an acquisition in terms of just the distraction from the daily grind, which is a wonderful grind that we love, it's pretty high. So it would have to be awesome for us to look. We should. It's part of my job to look. But it's not the baseline of what the next three years is going to look like.
嗨Dara，你对学习扑克有兴趣吗？因为我们知道你现在有一点点钱需要去运营。我的日常工作就像赌博一样，你知道，经营这家叫Uber的公司。所以在那之后，我喜欢保持不动。哦，还有一件事我忘了问你。这是我在尾声之后的一件事。Drizzly和Postmates，你们几年前进行了几次收购。市场已经关闭了收购。你是不是忽略了这件事，或者有银行家给你打电话谈收购？你认为接下来的两三年会发生什么？或者我们必须等到政权的改变，Lean Acon才能走开，也许收购会再次发生？在你的视线范围内吗？你有考虑过这个吗？听着，它应该一直在我们的视线范围内。但是我从Uber学到的一件事是，运营一家企业并将其他企业整合到一个双边市场中是非常困难的。对公司而言，有机增长的路径很好，除非我搞砸了。但看起来很好。所以从仅仅分散日常工作这一点来看，收购的成本相当高。所以它必须非常棒，我们才会考虑。我们应该考虑。这是我工作的一部分。但这并不是未来三年的基本预期。
Do banks pitch you regularly? Hey, buy this, buy this startup, buy this startup? Is it like a constant change? And especially the public markets are closed. So the only M&A is the way forward. So I get a lot of pitches and free drinks and leave it there. Well, the public markets aren't closed. They just think that you're dumber than the public markets and that you'll pay a bigger price. But I think what they're finding, the reason we don't see a lot of M&A is because folks like Dara aren't willing to pay the big bucks. And the public market is sober. And the reality is, if you're trying to sell a business today, you got to get on the same pages of public markets, your multiples going to reflect your growth rate and your profitability that's demanded by the public markets and all those people still living in make believe land, that there's some strategic inherent value to their business that's losing money. And it's just not going to end well. I think we've seen it this week, a bunch of layoffs again at Amazon at Google and others. And what it tells me is, if 2023 was the beginning of time to get fit, I really see it kicking into high gear right now. And you heard it from Dara. They're not growing headcount a lot. Amazon's not, Apple's not, they're doing more with less. AI is enabling that. And to me, M&A is only going to happen for those companies that are accretive and profitable. And they're going to have options. They could go public today or they could sell their business today. But the broken things that are still expecting high prices, I don't think are going to find a home. I agree with that. I think you got another year of people getting in touch with the reality that exists, which is the real issue that prohibits both of those to transaction. Yeah, accepting reality. That could be a theme for 2024. All right, we'll see you all next time on this round table with me. Bye bye.
银行经常向您推销吗？嘿，买这个，买这个创业公司，买这个创业公司？这是不是一直在变化？尤其是公开市场关闭了。所以唯一的合并与收购是前进的方式。所以我得到了很多推销和免费饮料，就到这里了。嗯，公开市场并没有关闭。他们只是认为你比公开市场更傻，你会付出更高的价格。但我认为他们发现的问题是，我们看不到很多并购的原因是像达拉这样的人不愿意付出巨额资金。公开市场比较稳定。事实上，如果你今天想出售一家企业，你必须与公开市场达成一致，你的倍数将反映公开市场对你的增长率和盈利能力的要求，所有还生活在虚幻世界中那些认为他们的亏损企业存在某种战略内在价值的人，必然会以失败告终。我认为我们这周已经见识到了，亚马逊、谷歌和其他公司又进行了一系列裁员。对我来说，如果2023年是健身的开始时间，我觉得现在才是加速器的启动时间。你从达拉那里听到了。他们的员工数量增长不多。亚马逊、苹果也是如此，他们用更少的资源做更多的事情。人工智能使这成为可能。对我来说，只有那些增长和盈利的公司才会进行并购。他们将有选择权。他们今天可以上市，也可以出售他们的企业。但那些仍然期望高价的破产公司，我认为不会找到买家。我同意这一点。我认为还有一年的时间，人们会接触到现实存在的问题，这是阻碍这两种交易的真正原因。是的，接受现实。这可能是2024年的主题。好了，下次见，再会。