Tesla Launches New Model 3 in US, Delivery Timelines Extend

Hey everybody Rob Maurer here and today we have one big piece of news and that big piece of news is of course that the Model 3 Highlander the updated new Model 3 is now available in the United States and in North America and actually in Taiwan as well.

大家好，我是Rob Maurer。今天我有一个重要的新闻要告诉大家，这个重要的新闻当然就是新款Model 3 Highlander现已在美国、北美地区甚至台湾上市了。

So we'll talk about that. Tesla stock on the date today despite this update down for 10% to close at $233.94 on the day, the NASDAQ another strong day up 3.4% so another underperformance for Tesla.

所以我们来谈谈这个。尽管有这个更新，但今天特斯拉的股票下跌了10%，收于233.94美元，而纳斯达克则又创下了3.4%的强劲涨幅，所以特斯拉再次表现不佳。

But we do have exciting news of course with the Model 3 Highlander update finally here in the United States and I say finally but actually a little bit earlier than I think most people would have expected. We did have of course some rumors that maybe this was coming on January 14th then yesterday we did see that promo promotional image show up of a Highlander on the demo drive page and I guess I was wrong and that was a little bit of a hint that maybe this was coming and late last night we did see the official launch and release with this being added to the design studio.

当然，我们有令人兴奋的消息，Model 3 Highlander版本终于在美国上市了。我说终于，但实际上比大多数人预期的要早一些。我们当然听到一些谣言，可能会在1月14日发布，然后昨天我们在试驾页面上看到了一张高地版模特的宣传图片，我想我是错了，那可能是一个小小的暗示，可能是会有这个版本的。然后昨晚我们看到了正式发布和上市的消息，它已经被添加到设计工作室中。

So we're not going to go through every single feature we've already done this I think hopefully if you're listening to Tesla daily you've got a good handle on what the updates are here but just as a reminder got new exterior new interior including the ventilated seats LED lighting at rear screen software touch materials and of course improved noise vibration and harshness or NVH on the vehicle.

所以我们不会逐一讲述已经完成的每一个功能，我认为如果你在听《特斯拉日报》的话，你对这些更新有了一个很好的了解，但只是提醒一下，有新的外观设计、新的内饰，包括通风座椅、后部LED照明、软件触控材料，当然还有车辆的噪音、振动和粗糙度改善（NVH）。

So major updates here despite this Tesla has actually kept the price the same. So if we go into the design studio we can see here that the price is that's what the probable savings but the price here $38,990 for the rear wheel driver standard range version the price for the long range $45,990. So again those prices are the same as previously.

尽管有一些重大更新，但特斯拉实际上将价格保持不变。如果我们进入设计工作室，可以看到标准后驱版本的价格为38,990美元，这可能是潜在的节省，而长续航版本的价格为45,990美元。所以，这些价格与之前的价格相同。

So I want to make sure everything is working here okay there we go. Yep same same prices as previously which may be a little bit unexpected because of course when Giga Shanghai updated to the Highland Model 3 we did see price increases in China and Europe for the Model 3. However when we consider the situation for the Model 3 of course there is no tax credit available on this with the exception of leases it is actually still being included in leases for the time being lowering that starting leasing price so very competitive there.

所以我想确保一切都正常运作，好，我们来看看。是的，和之前一样的价格，可能会有点出乎意料，因为当上海超级工厂升级为高地版Model 3时，我们确实在中国和欧洲看到了Model 3的价格上涨。然而，当我们考虑Model 3的情况时，当然没有提供此车型的税收减免，除了租赁情况下仍然包含在租赁中，降低了起始租赁价格，所以非常具有竞争力。

But for purchase the tax credit is not available on either of these versions. That was the case immediately prior to this change once we went into 2024 of course the performance still had it but as we can see with this update similarly to Giga Shanghai for the moment no performance Model 3.

但是对于购买而言，这两个版本都不能获得税收抵免。在这个改变之前，当然，在我们进入2024年之前是这样的，性能版仍然有这个政策，但是正如我们可以从这次更新中看到的那样，暂时与上海超级工厂一样，没有性能版Model 3。

So we may see that added back in the future but right now just the rear wheel drive and the long range and again at the same price.

因此，我们可能会在未来看到它重新添加，但目前仅提供后驱和远程驱动，而且价格仍然相同。

So although we're not seeing a price increase here like we did for Europe and China remember this is coming fresh off of the exclusion from that full $7,500 tax credit that is very significant and we also of course on inventory vehicles for the Model 3 as we can still see here those have been discounted now for quite some time even after the price cuts that we had in the early part of Q4.

尽管我们此处没有像欧洲和中国那样看到价格上涨，但请记住我们刚刚失去了那笔高达7500美元的税收减免，这非常重要。此外，当然我们在Model 3的库存车辆上也可以看到一段时间以来一直在打折销售，即使在第四季度初期进行了降价。

So although we're not seeing a list price increase this is still effectively a price increase plus because of the inventory situation plus we are of course not having the full electric vehicle tax credit outside of leasing.

尽管我们没有看到目录价格的提高，但这仍然实际上是一次价格提高，并且由于库存状况以及我们在租赁之外没有全额电动汽车税收减免，这一点尤为明显。

So with that considered I don't think it's too surprising and if Tesla can clear the vehicles at these prices I think that's still going to be a nice win for them margin-wise versus where it would have been otherwise.

所以，考虑到这一点，我认为这并不太令人惊讶，如果特斯拉以这样的价格销售这些车辆，从利润率来看，对他们来说仍然是一个不错的胜利，相比其他情况下的情况。

Also to consider because we're seeing them sell it at the same price here even though we've added of course a ton of new features here and hopefully improve the product quality if they're able to do this at the same price in the United States that should build well for what the margins would be out of Giga Shanghai right because if the cost structure is such that these are still sellable at this price Giga Shanghai has the higher price and probably better cost control of course so we should see really healthy margins for the Model 3 out of Giga Shanghai which would be a great sign especially given how quick that transition happened and that would be the same case here too with the transition.

当考虑到这一点时，我们可以看到它们在这里的售价与美国相同，尽管我们在这里添加了大量的新功能，而且希望提高产品质量。如果他们能够以相同的价格在美国销售，那么这对于上海超级工厂的利润率来说应该是一个良好的迹象，因为如果成本结构如此，仍然能够以这个价格进行销售，那么上海超级工厂就具有更高的价格和更好的成本控制，所以我们应该看到来自上海超级工厂的Model 3具有非常健康的利润率，这将是一个很好的迹象，特别是考虑到转型的速度有多快。对于这个转型也是同样的情况。

So we did hear from one of Tesla's VP of supply chain Roshan Thomas on X says the team has been working super hard on this for several months.

我们听到了特斯拉供应链副总裁Roshan Thomas的一位媒体说，团队在这个问题上已经努力工作了数月。

So we talked about this when we got the Q4 results and maybe the production numbers were a little bit lower than what we could have been in terms of just mapping that out factory by factory. With that being the case my hope was that some of this production that maybe could have existed otherwise was not there because of downtime for highly unrelated transition and maybe that would lead to us seeing it a little bit sooner.

所以在我们得到第四季度的结果时，我们讨论过这个问题，也许生产数量稍微低于我们可以从工厂的角度来预测的水平。在这种情况下，我的希望是，由于非常无关紧要的过渡中的停工，一些本来可能存在的生产受到了影响，这可能会导致我们稍早地看到一些生产情况。

This looks a little bit more plausible now that we are seeing the Model 3 highland available and with the delivery estimates originally when this came out last night of January to February. As you can see here they've already been pushed out to February to March in just the 12 hours or so I guess closer to 24 hours now that the vehicle has been available.

现在看起来情况更有可能一些，因为我们可以看到Model 3高地可得并且交付估计在昨晚发布时是一月到二月。正如你在这里所看到的，仅仅在大约12个小时内，或者现在更接近24小时，交付时间已经被推迟到了二月到三月。

Of course that doesn't mean a whole lot until we know what production rates are but given how quick the transition was and how quick they were able to ramp back to full production capacity in Giga Shanghai hopefully that means we're seeing something similar out of Fremont as well.

当然，这并不意味着太多，直到我们了解到生产速度是什么，但考虑到转变是多么迅速，以及上海超级工厂能够多快地恢复到全产能，希望这也意味着我们能在弗里蒙特看到类似的情况。

In terms of other things just kind of note we do see the range numbers a little bit different so you can see the standard range of the rear wheel drive version still at 272 miles they do say EPA estimated for the long range this bumps up to 341 I believe that's up from 333 or thereabouts previously so a little bit over a 2% increase in range for the long range version of course we do still expect these to be the same batteries especially because the IRA credit situation did not change.

就其他方面而言，我们确实注意到了一些不同的数字范围，因此你可以看到后驱版本的标准续航里程仍然为272英里，他们说长续航版的EPA估计会增加到341英里，我相信这比以前的333英里或者周围的范围增加了一点点，应该是续航里程增加了2%左右，当然，我们仍然预计这些电池是相同的，主要因为租赁税收额度的情况没有改变。

So with those being the same batteries we also have to consider that for the EPA range tests of course for the Model Y these had just changed so we can quickly take a look at that because of the new EPA test clarification that the EPA had provided remember the Model Y long range that decreased by 20 miles pretty similar for the Model Y performance so about 6% decreases there. We didn't see an adjustment on the Model 3 I don't know if Tesla was required to make one or if it was only for 2024 model years I'm not sure exactly how many 2024 Model 3s there would be before this highland update with that being said you would expect that the similar results that would push the Model Y EPA range down would also apply to this vehicle in which case we're seeing potentially the stacking of that decline plus this 2% increase which maybe effectively leads to about an 8% increase which would be a little bit more on par of what we'd seen from other countries with the Kiga Shanghai Model Highland so our Model 3 highland so probably a little bit better than what we may have expected or maybe a little bit better than what it would necessarily show on the surface with a 2% increase in range there.

因此，考虑到这些都是相同的电池，我们还必须考虑到对于EPA续航测试来说，当然对于Model Y来说，这些刚有所改变，因此我们可以快速看看。因为EPA提供了新的EPA测试澄清，记住Model Y长续航里程减少了20英里，对于Model Y性能车型来说也是类似的，有约6%的降低。我们没有看到Model 3有任何调整，我不知道特斯拉是不是被要求进行调整，或者这只发生在2024年的车型上，我不确定在这次高地更新之前有多少2024年的Model 3车型。话虽如此，你会期望这种推动Model Y EPA续航里程下降的类似结果也适用于这辆车辆，如果是这样的话，我们可能会看到这种下降的叠加加上这2%的增加，可能实际上会导致大约8%的增加，这将与其他国家的Kiga上海Model Highland所见的情况相当，所以我们的Model 3高地版本可能会比我们预期的要好一些，或者可能比表面上显示的更好，增加了2%的续航里程。

For the standard range again that's the same but that was always the same in terms of if I can get the right page here the Model Y rear wheel drive also did not change either so maybe to be expected on the standard range there.

对于标准型车系，这一点并未改变，无论是现在还是过去，如果我能在这里找到正确的页面，Model Y后驱车型也没有发生变化，所以在标准型车系上或许可以预料到这一点。

Just looking at my notes here so the performance model removed we talked about that there does not appear to be a front camera I don't know if I can zoom in at all on this but remember at some point in time we had seen a front camera on some of the renders for this Model 3 when it first came out in other countries we're not seeing that yet so of course it is on the Cybertruck at this point we'll see if that you know is further delayed on some of these other vehicles there have been rumored that that is coming at some point but nothing yet at least from the render and then colors so the old red and the old midnight silver metallic are now I think gone across Tesla's lineup with the stealth grade being brought over to the Model 3 Highland now replacing midnight silver metallic and ultra red replacing the old multi-coat red as well so those colors are changed over and then the delivery window again hopefully a sign that the order rate so far has been strong again despite the change with the tax credits heading into this year.

仅仅在看我的笔记，所以提到的那个性能模型已经被移除，我们曾经讨论过可能没有前置摄像头。我不知道我是否可以放大这个，但是回忆起在一些其他国家首次推出Model 3时，我们曾经看到前置摄像头。但是目前我们还没有看到它，所以当然，在Cybertruck上是有的。我们将看看在其他车型上是否会进一步推迟，有传言称这可能会在未来某个时候推出，但目前至少从外观来看还没有。然后是颜色方面，红色和午夜银已经从特斯拉的车型中消失，而隐形漆取代了午夜银，超级红取代了之前的多层涂装红色，所以这些颜色已经改变。再次看交货时间窗口，希望这是一个迹象，表明目前的订单速度仍然强劲，尽管今年的税收抵免发生了变化。

So exciting to see this so early if Tesla can transition this pretty quickly throughout this quarter hopefully we don't see too much of a you know a margin impact in in Q1 if more of this transition did end up happening in Q4 maybe that's something to be aware of for the Q4 financials and of course if there was downtime on that that impacted Model 3 production and sales you know we already have the delivery figures but something to keep an eye on as well because there can be transition costs as that occurs.

太激动了，在这么早的时候就看到这个消息，如果特斯拉能够在本季迅速进行这种转变，希望在第一季度我们不会看到太大的利润影响，如果更多的转变发生在第四季度，也许这是第四季财务数据需要注意的事情。当然，如果这导致Model 3的生产和销售中断，我们已经有了交付数据，但也需要留意这方面的转型成本。

That being said I don't expect it to be too bad just given how quickly Gigashang High was able to transition we're probably not looking at quite the same for Fremont but hopefully with this happening so early in the quarter means pretty good signs in that front.

话虽如此，考虑到Gigashang High转变得如此迅速，我并不觉得Fremont会有太大问题，但希望早在学期初这样的事情发生可能预示着前景相当不错。

Alright so I think that is pretty much it for the Model 3 Highland but I'm excited about this I replied to Tesla's comment yesterday that I've got to consider upgrading here I've had my Model 3 now for three years I want to keep it a little bit longer but it is definitely tempting to upgrade so let me know if you're making that same consideration in the comments today.

好的，我认为这就是关于高地版Model 3的全部内容了，但我对此感到兴奋。我昨天回复了特斯拉的评论，表示我要考虑升级。我已经使用我的Model 3有三年了，我希望继续使用它一段时间，但升级的诱惑确实很大。如果你也在考虑同样的事情，请在评论中告诉我。

Like I said not a whole lot of other news today interestingly but we did have a little bit of an update potentially out of India so apparently according to government official in Gujarat looks like the potential announcement that had been hypothesized or speculated about of a Tesla Gigafactory in India that maybe could happen at this Gujarat summit looks like this is no longer expected at least from these comments so we'll see this summit is running the 10th through the 12th so over the next couple of days we should know for sure I don't think the expectations from those initial reports were probably super high from anyone but this seems to be the latest update on that

就像我之前说的那样，今天没有太多其他的新闻，但我们在印度可能有一小段的更新。据古吉拉特邦的一位政府官员称，根据目前的情况来看，我们之前猜测的特斯拉在印度建设Gigafactory的潜在公告似乎不再预期，至少从这些评论来看是这样。我们将在未来几天看到这个峰会将会如何进行，该峰会将持续从10日到12日，所以我们应该很快就会知道确切的情况。我不认为这些初步报告所期望的结果可能会特别高，但这似乎是关于这个问题的最新消息更新。

and then just kind of an elaboration on something that we talked about today or two ago with the US auto inventory situation so automotive news published an article about this it's largely what we had talked about but they made an interesting point that we didn't specifically mention which was that for inventory in the auto market like we talked about year end that was at 2.7 million vehicles 71 days of supply but they also point out that the prior month so end of November there was two and a half million vehicles in inventory at that point so almost a 10% increase I don't know what that exactly is maybe 8% increase in one single month in the available inventory in the United States or I think this is the US yeah so just kind of shows that even with this inventory supply being where it was which we talked about being the most significant in the last three years the rate of change on that inventory in the end of the year which usually is a strong selling period was quite significant as well so worth keeping an eye on and I just wanted to highlight again that rate of change part of it as well

然后，只是对我们前两天提到的美国汽车库存情况进行了一些详细说明。汽车新闻发表了一篇文章，基本上是我们之前讨论过的内容，但还提出了一个我们没有具体提到的有趣观点，即关于汽车市场库存的问题，就像我们谈到的年终时有270万辆汽车的库存，供应量为71天，但他们还指出，上个月底，即11月底，库存中有250万辆汽车，所以增加了将近10%。我不知道具体数字是多少，或许是8%的增加，一单个月内美国可供应库存的增加，我想这是美国吧。这只是表明，即使库存供应处于过去三年来最高水平，年底这个通常是销售旺季的时候，库存的变化率也是相当显著的，所以值得留意。我只是想再次强调这种变化率的部分。

and then another story that we had previously talked about was this common settlement that was supposed to be for about 1.7 billion dollars I saw a headline today that this was two billion dollars now so it looked like that had increased a little bit it looks like it's the same fine that's being paid and then they are also paying we're spending 325 million dollars to quote unquote remedy the excess emissions according to the Reuters report which will be 175 million dollars to California specifically to help reduce nitrogen oxide and it will also be the balance of the funds apparently we use to fund replacement high emitting diesel locomotive engines I'm not sure if that's in the 175 or the 325 but all in total this brings the settlement up to about two million dollars in terms of that Cummins emissions thing related to Ram trucks like we had previously talked about another story we'd briefly mention this one is on SpaceX SpaceX had launched a few days ago six days ago I guess eight days ago now but six days ago after launching their first direct-to-sell capable Starling satellites SpaceX has completed their first test so they've sent and received text messages from an unmodified cell phone to those Starling satellites that have this direct-to-sell capability on the T-Mobile network so exciting to see that in milestone for SpaceX and I think over time this technology is going to be very helpful I would expect that at some point this probably saves a life just having greater connectivity in those situations where otherwise you maybe wouldn't I think it's going to be super helpful for people to have so congrats to SpaceX on that successful test

然后，我们之前讨论过的另一个故事是一项共同解决方案，金额预计为17亿美元。我今天看到的头条消息是这个金额增至20亿美元，所以看起来增加了一点。看起来这是同一笔罚款，另外他们还要支付3.25亿美元来“纠正过量排放”，根据路透社的报道，其中1.75亿美元将专门用于减少氮氧化物在加利福尼亚的排放，剩下的资金将用于资助更换高排放柴油机车引擎的费用。我不确定这是在175还是325的资金内，但总而言之，这将使和康明斯（Cummins）排放相关的解决方案金额增加到大约200万美元。关于Ram卡车，我们之前也讨论过这个故事。 另一个故事是关于SpaceX的。六天前，SpaceX发射了他们的首批直达卫星Starling。在六天前，SpaceX完成了他们的第一次测试，使用未修改的手机向具备T-Mobile网络直达卫星功能的Starling卫星发送和接收短信。看到SpaceX取得了这个里程碑，对于这项技术未来是否能拯救生命、在其他情况下提供更好的连接而言，我充满期待。我认为这对人们来说是非常有帮助的。恭喜SpaceX成功地通过了这个测试。

and then the last couple of things just a reminder that we do have the CPI report tomorrow morning we'll keep an eye on that and it relates to interest rate expectations for January the FOMC meeting is going to be on January 30th I believe maybe the results on the 31st but we can see that expectations are pretty much fully in line with a continued pause at this point there had been some expectation previously that maybe we'd see a rate cut those expectations for a cut have been cut in about half so we'll see how the CPI report affects those expectations if at all but that'll wrap it up for today so as always thank you for listening make sure you subscribe and sign up for notifications you can also find me on X at tessel podcast and we'll see you tomorrow for the Thursday January 11th episode of tessel daily thank you.

然后，最后要提醒大家明天早上会有CPI报告，我们会密切关注该报告与1月份的利率预期相关。据我了解，FOMC会议将于1月30日举行，结果可能在31日出炉，但我们可以看到目前对于继续暂停的预期基本上完全一致。之前有一些预期可能会降息，但现在这种预期已经减少了一半左右，因此我们会看CPI报告是否会对这些预期产生影响。无论如何，今天就说到这里，感谢大家的聆听，记得订阅并开启通知，还可以在X网上找到我，听我的《tessel podcast》，我们明天见，那是1月11日星期四的《tessel daily》节目，再次感谢大家。