New Video Stifles WSJ Musk Report, Advertising Cybertruck, Honda Series 0

Hey everybody Rob Merritt here and today we've got new insight on some recent reporting around Elon Musk. We've also got new data out of China, an update on Gigamexico and more. Not a strong day for Tesla stock today, closing down 2.3% to $234.96 while the NASDAQ rallied back and did finish up about 1.10th of a percent on the day.

大家好，我是罗布·梅里特。今天我们将就有关埃隆·马斯克的最新报道提出新的见解。此外，我们还获得了中国的最新数据，对Gigamexico项目也有了最新进展。然而，今天特斯拉的股票表现不佳，收盘下跌了2.3%，至234.96美元，而纳斯达克指数则反弹回升，当天收益约为1.10%。

We'll start off with a couple updates out of China. We are starting to get the final December numbers broken out so previously we had the whole sales figure. We now have that broken down between retail or domestic sales and exported vehicles for the month and the Model 3 and Model Y breakdown between the whole sales figure.

我们首先来看中国的一些更新。我们开始获得最终的十二月份数字，之前我们只有整体的销售数字。现在我们把这些数字细分为本土零售销售和出口车辆的销售，并且还有整体销售数字中Model 3和Model Y的细分情况。

We'll start with retail sales though, almost 76,000 vehicles sold domestically in China in December. It's a strong way to close the year, this is nearly a record month for Tesla in China following a couple thousand vehicles short but this does move Q4 as a whole to almost 170,000 sales in China for the quarter and that is a record quarter by about 8% over the previous record. Nice to see such a strong end to the year for Tesla in China.

尽管销量还要补上几千辆车，但在中国市场，特斯拉12月份国内零售销售几乎达到了7.6万辆，这是年底的良好开局，几乎刷新了特斯拉在中国市场的销售记录。这让整个第四季度在中国的销量达到了近17万辆，创下了大约8%的增长，这是一个创纪录的季度。看到特斯拉在中国市场以如此强势的方式结束了这一年，真是太好了。

For exports we have about 18,000 vehicles exported in December and then for wholesale sales we can see the breakout between Model Y and Model 3 at first glance nothing too notable 31,981 Model 3, 60,158 Model Y but that Model 3 number is a record wholesale sales figure for the Model 3. We already had a pretty good idea about this but more evidence that Model 3 Highland Production after that transition continues to be quite strong.

对于出口方面，我们在12月份出口了大约18,000辆车，而对于批发销售，一眼就可以看到Model Y和Model 3的销量分布，没有什么太显著的特点，其中Model 3是31,981辆，Model Y是60,158辆，但Model 3的销售数字是创纪录的批发销售数字。我们已经对此有了一个相当好的了解，但这是更多证据表明，Model 3在转型后的生产仍然非常强劲。

And then because this is December we now have the full year figures so retail sales are domestic sales in China up 37% year over year to just over 603,000 vehicles and exports up 27% for the full year to about 344,000. Of course those are both records as well.

因为现在是12月，所以我们有了全年销售数据。就零售销售而言，去年中国国内销量同比增长37%，达到了略高于603,000辆，并且出口销量全年同比增长27%，达到了约344,000辆。当然这两个数字都创下了历史纪录。

So we move into 2024 and we've got our first China insured vehicle numbers for the year with the week of January 1st through the 7th coming in at 3,200 vehicles insured for Tesla in China. Now obviously this is a significant decline from the previous weeks but as we can see from the chart pretty typical for a week 1 of a quarter. This is actually up 50% from the first week of last quarter and 3 times more vehicles than last year's first week. Of course as we can see here from Q4 that first week the quarter sales really doesn't mean too much in terms of where the total quarter ends up.

所以我们进入2024年，我们得到了中国今年第一个保险车辆数量的数据，1月1日至7日的一周内，特斯拉在中国有3200辆车被保险。显然，这与之前几周相比，有了显著下降，但从图表可以看出，这在季度的第一周是相当典型的。实际上，这比上一季度的第一周增长了50％，是去年第一周车辆数量的3倍。当然，从去年第四季度的数据来看，季度销售的第一周并不代表整个季度的情况。

Alright moving on we've got a continuation of our discussion from yesterday about a Wall Street Journal report that Elon Musk had used illegal drugs. As I mentioned yesterday one of the examples that the Wall Street Journal used as evidence of this was a SpaceX company update back in 2017. Specifically they said that Musk was an hour late for this company update that when he finally took the stage he was quote unquote strangely incomprehensible at times saying that he slurred his words, rambled for around 15 minutes and that Gwynne Shotwell had to step in and take over the meeting because of this behavior. The suggestion was that Elon was just so drugged out that he couldn't make it through the presentation.

好的，我们继续昨天的讨论，关于《华尔街日报》的报道，称埃隆·马斯克使用了非法药物。就像我昨天提到的那样，《华尔街日报》举了2017年的一次SpaceX公司更新会作为这一指控的例证。具体来说，他们说马斯克在这次公司更新会上迟到了一个小时，当他最终上台时，据称他说话时有些“怪异地难以理解”，口齿不清地讲了约15分钟，因此行为问题引发会议由Gwynne Shotwell接手。报道暗示马斯克可能因吸毒过多而无法完成演讲。

Well SpaceX has the receipts last night they posted the full company presentation that is being referenced in this article. I'll link to it in the description you can check it out yourself but as I was watching I kind of kept waiting to get to that 15 minute mark and see what transpired where ultimately Gwynne Shotwell had to eventually take over the meeting sounded pretty interesting right but shockingly note this hark has him there. Shockingly this moment never came I'm going to play a clip from one hour into this company update it's about a minute long and let's just listen and see how Elon sounds in this clip. And the economic feeling pretty optimistic about the economics of earth to earth transport for a couple of reasons. One is that because it's moving so fast you can get 10 times as much use out of it as an airliner. So if you go for LA to Sydney it's about a 14 hour flight. You can't even do a round trip and even if they're absolutely best it would take more than 20 or take 28 hours and that's if they land and they get like forming a one style fuel injection it's 28 hours. This is California to Australia 30 minutes. So maybe 35 you know round up a little extra 5 minutes a minute. But the point is that it's more than a it's what you can use you can use this system 10 times for every one use of a commercial airliner. Like wow like that that's that's that's quite a revelation. So your capital cost is then 10 times better than than an aircraft provided we have truly achieved a rapid reflike without refurbishment. Which also I'm highly confident can be done for earth earth earth stuff.

SpaceX昨晚公布了完整的公司演示，本文中提到的内容可在描述中链接中查看。当我观看时，我一直等待着跳到15分钟的时刻，看看发生了什么，最终Gwynne Shotwell不得不接管会议，听起来相当有趣，但让人惊讶的是，这一时刻从未出现。我将在公司更新一小时后播放一个片段，大约一分钟长，让我们听一下埃隆在这段片段中的表现如何。我对地球间运输的经济前景感到非常乐观，有几个原因。首先，由于速度很快，您可以获得比客机多10倍的使用率。所以如果你从洛杉矶飞往悉尼，大约需要14个小时的飞行时间。你甚至不能做一个往返，即使他们绝对最好的情况下，需要超过20小时，甚至需要28小时，而且这还是在他们降落并获得类似一型燃料喷射的情况下。这是从加利福尼亚飞往澳大利亚只需要30分钟，所以也许35分钟，再多加上5分钟。但要知道的是，您可以使用这个系统比商用飞机多使用10倍。哇，这真是令人惊叹。因此，您的资本成本比飞机好10倍，前提是我们确实实现了快速无需翻新的加注。我也非常有信心，这对地地天地的事务来说是可以做到的。

All right so yeah there's a little bit of stuttering that's normal for Elon we hear that all the time. There's a little bit of slurring but again this isn't 2017 this is during the most difficult stages of the model three ramp up this is one of the most difficult periods of time in Elon's history and he even mentioned in this update that he was extremely low on sleep. So is this peak lucidity Elon peak annunciation Elon probably not but is the only possible explanation for this drugs absolutely not if this was incomprehensible to anybody maybe those are the people that are on drugs. And again this is an hour into the talk there is no point in time where shot well in any way takes over the meeting she assists with parts. Elon asks her to take some pieces of it because he doesn't have as much familiarity with those pieces again the focus during the period of time for Elon was very likely to predominantly Ben Tesla during one of the most critical periods of Tesla's history so I'm not seeing how that would at all be surprising.

好的，是的，埃隆有一些口吃是正常的，我们经常听到这样的情况。有一些口齿不清，不过这不是2017年，而是在Model 3大规模生产的最困难阶段，这是埃隆个人历史上最困难的时期之一。在这次更新中，他甚至提到他缺乏睡眠。所以，埃隆在这次演讲中是否思维清晰？是否口齿清楚？可能不是，但难道唯一的解释就是药物吗？绝对不是。如果有人听不懂他说的话，那可能是那些在吸毒的人。并且再次强调，这个演讲已经进行了一个小时，不存在肖特威尔在任何时候接管会议的情况，她只是协助一些部分。埃隆要求她参与其中是因为他对这些部分不太熟悉。埃隆在那段时间的主要关注点很可能是特斯拉的最关键时期，所以我不明白为什么这会让人感到惊讶。

In any case reviewing this it's very clear that the reporting from the Wall Street Journal again unsurprisingly does not accurately reflect this situation so if it weren't already the case which should have been certainly calls into question the other parts of the article as well. All right so we'll move on from this but again the full video will be linked in the description it's actually a pretty interesting video about SpaceX in general so even setting this stuff aside probably still actually worth a watch.

无论如何，重新审视这一点很明显，华尔街日报的报道再次出人意料地没有准确反映这种情况，如果事先不是这种情况的话，那就应该对文章的其他部分产生质疑。好吧，我们将离开这个话题，但是请注意，完整的视频链接已经放在描述中，这实际上是一个关于SpaceX的相当有趣的视频，所以即使抛开这些问题，它仍然值得一看。

Next up we've got some new reporting on Gigamexico this is coming from a radio formula out of Mexico they are saying that Governor of New Wave of Leon St. Milgarcia has announced that the start of construction for Gigamexico will begin in the first quarter of 2024 also known as this current quarter. The report goes on to mention that Garcia has assured that the works that correspond to the government of New Wave of Leon have already begun and will begin to be visible in the first month of this year. So from that piece it's a little bit unclear to me if he's actually talking about Tesla starting their work on the Gigafactory or if he's referring to the municipality starting some of their work on the infrastructure for the Gigafactory. The direct quote that they provide although we don't have the full context around it sounds more like it's referring specifically to Tesla starting it says and Tesla as soon as they finish they call it a production line construction begins the start should be this quarter obviously a translated quote there too. I would not be surprised if there is infrastructure work beginning I would be a little bit surprised if Tesla is actually starting construction this quarter that doesn't really seem to fit with the most recent status update comments from Elon regarding Gigamexico so for now I'm taking this with a grain of salt I feel like we've heard Samo Garcia say quite a few things we probably haven't had enough time to evaluate the track record on those things yet but there have been enough of them that I am a little bit skeptical at least at this point so we'll see but I'm not putting a whole lot of weight in this report right now.

接下来，我们有一些关于Gigamexico的新报道，这是来自墨西哥的Radio Fórmula广播电台。他们表示，新莱昂州州长圣·米尔加西亚宣布Gigamexico的建设将于2024年第一季度开始，也就是今年的第一季度。报道继续提到，加西亚确保了新莱昂州政府的工程已经开始，并将在今年的第一个月开始显露出来。对于我来说，这篇报道有点不清楚，他究竟是在谈论特斯拉在Gigafactory上开始工作，还是在指这个市政府开始进行基础设施的工作。他们提供的直接引用虽然我们没有完整的背景信息，听起来更像是在特指特斯拉开始，他们说到：“特斯拉一旦完成生产线，施工就会开始，这个季度应该会开始。”这个引用也是经过了翻译的。我不会对于基础设施工作的开始感到意外，但如果特斯拉真的在本季度开始建设，我会有点惊讶，因为这似乎不符合埃隆最近关于Gigamexico的最新状态更新评论。所以目前我对这个报道持保留态度。我觉得我们听到了很多加西亚说过的话，但我们可能还没有足够的时间来评估这些事情的真实性，但已经有了足够的事例让我对此持怀疑态度，所以我们拭目以待，但目前我对这个报道并不是很重视。

Next we've got a quick model three update there were some reports that Tesla on the schedule a demo drive page on Tesla's website in the United States had displayed a photo of an updated Highland Model 3 in the Model 3 section it looks like this has already been changed back to a pre refresh version so even though we did have a rumor yesterday about the Highland update I'm not taking this as any additional indication that that might be correct or anything like that I think it's more likely that somebody just grabbed the wrong asset by mistake and now it has been corrected.

接下来我们有一个关于Model 3的快速更新。有报道称特斯拉在其美国的网站上的试驾页面上展示了一张更新的Highland Model 3的照片，但目前已经改回了更新之前的版本。尽管昨天我们曾听到关于Highland更新的传闻，但我不会将此视为任何额外的证据来证明这可能是正确的或其他相关信息。我认为更有可能是有人不小心选错了资源，现在已经进行了更正。

Alright last couple of items for today yesterday we had talked about the 60 second video that Tesla put together around Cybertruck features I mentioned off-handedly that I didn't think it'd be a bad idea for Tesla to just give a Super Bowl ad a shot see how it goes and I got a bunch of comments saying that it doesn't make any sense for Tesla to advertise the Cybertruck because of the order backlog so the first thing is that I didn't say they should run this specific video as the Super Bowl ad I was just saying that Tesla in general as a company shouldn't consider a Super Bowl ad but I do think those strongly worded comments do bring up an interesting discussion and because sometimes I like to be contrarian or play Devil's Advocate and consider the other side of things I wouldn't go so far as to say that if Tesla were to advertise for the Cybertruck that it would be something that would be entirely pointless just because of the obviously significant order backlog.

好的，今天最后几件事。昨天我们谈到了特斯拉制作的关于Cybertruck功能的60秒视频，我随口提到特斯拉尝试一下在超级碗中播放广告是个不错的主意，看看效果如何。然后我收到了很多评论，说特斯拉不应该为Cybertruck做广告，因为订单积压。首先我并没说他们应该把这个视频作为超级碗广告播放，我只是想说特斯拉作为一家公司，不妨考虑一下超级碗广告的可能性。但是我认为那些强烈表态的评论确实引发了一个有趣的讨论，因为有时候我喜欢持异议或者进行辩证逻辑，考虑另一种观点。我不会说如果特斯拉为Cybertruck做广告就完全没有意义，仅仅因为订单积压的问题。

Before I elaborate on that let me reiterate that I'm not advocating for this I just think that there are some interesting points worthy of discussion that while ultimately may not raise it to the level of being worth doing probably raise it a little bit above pointless. The first and probably most obvious thing is the brand the Cybertruck is a vehicle unlike any other vehicle it is a great halo product for Tesla making people more aware of what the Cybertruck is as a vehicle all the technology in it all of its capability that can very easily help people's perception of Tesla's other vehicles as well. Another layer of that is that the Cybertruck is so crazy so attention getting so conversation starting that even just the inclusion of it raises questions peaks interest and then maybe those people do some research and maybe through that research they found out a little bit more about Tesla about EVs in general and maybe another Tesla product is one they would actually buy even though the Cybertruck is what initially peaked their interest.

在我详细描述之前，让我再次强调一下，我并不是在提倡这件事，我只是认为有一些有趣的值得讨论的观点，尽管最终可能没有达到值得做的程度，但可能会提升它的不无意义性。首先，而且可能是最明显的一点是，塞伯特卡是一辆与其他任何车辆都不同的车辆，它是特斯拉的一款重要的产品，让人们更加了解塞伯特卡作为一款车型的所有技术能力，这非常容易提升人们对特斯拉其他车辆的认知。另一个层面是，塞伯特卡是如此疯狂、引人注目、能引发讨论的，即使仅仅包含它也会引发问题，引起兴趣，然后也许那些人会做一些研究，也许通过这些研究他们会更多地了解特斯拉，了解电动汽车，也许另一款特斯拉产品是他们实际上会购买的，即使最初是塞伯特卡引起了他们的兴趣。

Similarly maybe they see a long wait time for the Cybertruck but they decide in the interim period to buy or lease a different Tesla. Even for the Cybertruck itself car buying decisions are big decisions these are most people second most expensive purchases it can take people a long time to make those decisions so raising awareness earlier on even if they're not going to place an order for a year or two is probably helpful and if you're able to introduce the Cybertruck into the customer's possible decision set then perhaps they're going to hold off on buying another vehicle a nice vehicle that they would have otherwise bought while they say hey I really want this it's going to be a little bit but I can definitely extend the life of my current vehicle another year or two and just get to the Cybertruck versus otherwise maybe buying another vehicle in that period. Are those type of things enough to make it worth doing? I don't know that's for Tesla to decide but it's far from being worthless or pointless if they did decide to do it.

同样的，也许他们会看到Cybertruck有很长的等待时间，但他们决定在此期间购买或租赁另一辆特斯拉。即使对于购买Cybertruck本身而言，汽车购买决策也是一个重大决策，这是大多数人第二大开支，人们可能需要很长时间来做出这些决策，因此尽早提高意识，即使他们不打算在一两年内下订单，可能也是有帮助的。如果您能够让顾客考虑购买Cybertruck，那么也许他们会推迟购买其他车辆，一个他们本来会购买的不错的车辆，同时他们可能会说，我真的很想要它，可能再等待一段时间，我可以继续使用我现在的车一两年，并购买Cybertruck，而不是在这段时间内购买另一辆车。这些事情是否足以使其值得去做？我不知道，这是特斯拉要决定的，但它绝对不是毫无价值或无意义的。

I think the risks of advertising are pretty low sure it's going to cost them cash but Tesla is not cash constrained at the moment and haven't been for quite some time so the opportunity cost of not learning about it is probably quite a bit greater than any cash consideration and it's not a fundamental part of the cost structure because if this were not effective Tesla could obviously stop doing it at any time and return to the same cost basis that they had before

我认为广告的风险相当低，确实会花费一些现金，但特斯拉目前并不受现金限制，而且很长时间以来也没有受限制，因此不了解广告的机会成本可能会比现金考虑更大很多。而且，广告并不是成本结构的基本部分，因为如果广告不起作用的话，特斯拉显然可以随时停止，并返回到之前的成本基础上。

so maybe it seems a little bit antithetical to how Tesla is historically operated but if Tesla spends some cash that ultimately doesn't have a good ROI as they learn about advertising I'm not going to have any problem with that as a shareholder the learnings I think are going to be much more valuable than any possible ROI on a few million dollars here or there as Tesla tries to learn about it.

也许这似乎有点违背特斯拉历来的运营方式，但如果特斯拉花费一些现金去学习广告，并最终没有获得良好的投资回报率，作为股东，我不会对此有任何问题。我认为学到的经验将比特斯拉在学习过程中花费的几百万美元的任何潜在投资回报率更有价值。

Anyway I know there are plenty of counterpoints to be made it's tough to have those type of conversations when it's a one-sided recording like this but wanted to at least clarify what I was saying yesterday and raise some of these points as well.

无论如何，我知道有很多可以提出的反对观点，但在这种仅有单方录音的情况下，很难进行这种类型的对话。但我希望能够至少澄清我昨天所说的，并提出一些这些观点。

Alright last item for today then Honda at CES has announced their next line of electric vehicles this is supposed to begin in the US in 2026 it's called the series zero lineup and originally it's going to start off with two vehicles which are apparently going to be called the saloon and the space hub the saloon would be the flagship sort of sedan-like vehicle which very kind eyes might view as sort of Lamborghini-esque which probably means a very low chance of any production version actually looking like this and then the space hub which is sort of a mini van esque platform which I guess looks a little bit more like something that could actually end up being produced at some point.

好的，今天最后一条消息来自Honda参展CES，他们宣布了他们的下一代电动车系列，预计从2026年开始在美国推出，这个系列被称为零系列。最初将推出两款车型，分别被称为"saloon"和"space hub"。"saloon"将成为旗舰型轿车，看起来有些类似兰博基尼，但实际上量产版本可能不会像这样。而"space hub"则是一种迷你货车平台，看起来更像是有可能真正投产的车型。

Honda says they'll be introducing series zero vehicles in 2026.

本田表示他们将于2026年推出零系列车辆。

Alright that'll wrap it up for today then as always thank you for listening make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications and also find me on x at Tesla podcast and we'll see tomorrow for the Wednesday January 10th episode of Tesla Daily thank you. you.

好的，今天就到这里吧，一如既往地感谢你的收听。请确保你已经订阅并开启了通知，同时你也可以在Tesla播客中找到我。明天我们会见到你，谈论1月10日星期三的特斯拉每日动态。谢谢你。