Tesla Lowers Range Estimates, Samsung Integration, Argus Says TSLA Among Top Picks
发布时间 2024-01-06 03:41:41 来源
Hey everybody Rob Manward here, happy Friday. Today we've got updates on the ranges that are listed on Tesla vehicles on their website. We've also got a partnership with Samsung, some news on paint colors for the Model Y, and a couple other items as well.
大家好，这里是罗布·曼沃德，祝大家周五愉快。今天我们将为大家提供关于特斯拉网站上列出的车辆续航里程的最新消息。我们还与三星建立了合作伙伴关系，以及有关Model Y车辆的涂层颜色的一些新闻，还有其他一些项目的更新。
Alright, looking at the stock, sorry, just refresh my memory there, looking at the stock, tessel it down 2.10% today to $237.50, 49 cents, the NASDAQ with its first green day of the year this year, with a finish up 1.10% on the day today. So relatively little movement for both the broader markets and for Tesla on the day.
好的，看着股票，抱歉，让我回忆一下，看着股票，今天特斯拉下跌了2.10%，至237.50美元，下跌了49美分，而纳斯达克指数在今天年初迎来了第一个涨势，上涨了1.10%。所以对于整体市场和特斯拉来说，今天的波动都相对较小。
We'll start off with an analyst update. Argus has indicated that Tesla is one of their top picks for stocks for 2024. You can see that this is a pretty extensive list and cross a number of different sectors, but in the consumer discretionary sector, Tesla being one of their top picks here, they do have a $316 price target on the stock, and they highlighted Tesla's growing dependence on artificial intelligence in their manufacturing process and factory utilization, which they feel is given Tesla a significant competitive advantage. They also point out that Tesla with things like full self-driving, battery self-production, and AI enabled robots becoming a future part, a bigger part of the future at Tesla. And with other electric vehicle makers struggling to right size their future capital expenditure budgets for EVs, they believe that Tesla has the opportunity to grow market share in 2024.
我们首先来看一份分析师报告更新。Argus指出，特斯拉是他们对2024年股票的首选之一。你可以看到这是一个相当广泛的清单，涵盖了许多不同的行业，但在消费性可自由支配行业中，特斯拉是其中之一，他们给出了316美元的股票价格目标，并强调了特斯拉在制造过程和工厂利用率方面对人工智能的日益依赖，他们认为这给特斯拉带来了重大的竞争优势。他们还指出，随着特斯拉全自动驾驶、电池自制和人工智能机器人成为特斯拉未来更大一部分的一部分，其他电动汽车制造商努力调整未来电动汽车资本支出预算的艰难处境中，他们认为特斯拉有机会在2024年扩大市场份额。
So nice to see that from Argus and actually interesting that they highlighted the AI role in Tesla's manufacturing abilities in this note today, because Tesla also highlighted that on X from their Gigafactory's account, noting that Gigashang Hi today operates at 95% automation on the production line, enabling a cycle time of less than 40 seconds. So kind of a cool video, we won't play the whole thing here, but it goes through from, oh, sound comes on there, but it goes through from the beginning to kind of the end of the production process, and you can see sort of A to B start to finish in terms of all the different processes coming together to finally form a vehicle as it drives out of the factory. So we've known the cycle time, this isn't anything new, but just kind of nice to see that piece together in the way that Tesla has done it on X today.
很高兴从Argus看到这个消息，而且有趣的是，他们今天在这份笔记中强调了人工智能在特斯拉制造能力中的作用，因为特斯拉也在他们的Gigafactory账户上强调了这一点，指出Gigashang Hi今天在生产线上的自动化率达到了95％，从而实现了不到40秒的循环时间。这个视频挺有趣的，我们不会在这里播放整个视频，但它从生产过程的开始到结束进行了展示，你可以看到从开始到最后如何将各种不同的工艺过程结合在一起，最终形成一辆车从工厂驶出。我们已经知道循环时间，这并不是什么新鲜事，但很高兴看到特斯拉今天以这种方式将各个环节组合到一起。
Alright, probably the biggest news for today, Tesla has lowered the EPA estimates on their website for various different vehicles, all the vehicles except for the Model 3 affected, and potentially Cybertruck weft wait and see, obviously, we don't have the full design studio, but for now, I don't think we've seen any changes on the Cybertruck. But you can see here, not a Tesla app recapping the changes to the various vehicles. The most significant was a 9% decrease in the estimated range on the Model S Plata. You can see the various other decreases here sort of in the 5% range. So not hugely impactful, but for some vehicles like Model Y Performance, it's crossing a threshold between 300 miles and 285 miles. So changing that first digit there, which psychologically a little bit more impactful. So a pretty significant change, I would say, in terms of just the stated ranges, even though it is a little bit small in terms of the actual number or percent change.
好的，今天最重要的新闻可能就是特斯拉在他们的网站上降低了美国环保署（EPA）对不同车型的估计数据，除了Model 3之外的所有车型都受到影响，还有可能会影响Cybertruck，不过我们需要等待瞧瞧，显然，我们还没有完整的设计工作室，但就目前而言，我认为我们对Cybertruck没有看到任何变化。但是你可以在这里看到，有一个特斯拉应用程序总结了各种车型的变化情况。最重要的是，Model S Plaid的估计里程减少了9%。你可以在这里看到其他车型的估计里程降低大约在5%的范围内。所以影响并不是很大，但对于一些车型，比如Model Y Performance，它的里程从300英里降到了285英里，这在心理上更有影响力，因为改变了那个第一个数字。所以从所述的里程方面来说，这是一个相当重要的改变，尽管实际数字或百分比的变化可能有点小。
But the reason for this isn't anything to do with the vehicles. There's no difference in efficiency or battery capacity or anything like that that actually is changing the real world range. This is just a clarification on testing from the EPA. So they sent a letter out to auto manufacturers. And what this change has to do with is driving modes. So the test cycles previously, I don't believe had to test for different driving modes. Like for Tesla, you might have sport mode versus chill mode, things like that. My understanding is that any of these driving modes that can be specified for a driver profile or how they put it latched to a driver profile must be tested with the EPA test cycle. And I think the intent of this is so that you don't have a driving mode that is, you know, amplifying efficiency in a way that isn't realistic to how a person would drive in the real world and then trying to use that for the EPA test, which would obviously be pretty deceiving.
但这个原因与汽车本身无关。在效率、电池容量或其他实际上影响真实续航里程的方面并没有任何差异。这只是美国环境保护局(EPA)对测试的澄清。所以他们给汽车制造商发了一封信。这个改变与驾驶模式有关。以前的测试循环我不认为需要测试不同的驾驶模式。比如说对于特斯拉来说，你可能有运动模式和冷静模式等等。我理解的是，任何可以为驾驶配置文件指定的驾驶模式，或者说与驾驶配置文件关联的模式，必须经过EPA测试循环的测试。我认为这样做的目的是为了避免有一种驾驶模式，它以不真实的方式增加了效率，而这不符合人们在现实世界中的实际驾驶，然后试图将其用于EPA测试，这显然会很具有欺骗性。
But I think how it's actually being implemented is a little bit troublesome in terms of, you know, the actual effect in the real world.
但我认为它实际的实施方式在现实世界中的实际效果上有点麻烦。
So how this actually works is that if there are, again, these modes that can be latched to a driver profile, the manufacturer can either use the worst case one for the test, or they can determine the best case and the worst case out of all of those different available modes and then test both of those and then average those two.
实际上，这是如何运作的是，如果有可以锁定到驾驶员配置文件的模式，制造商可以选择测试最糟糕的情况，也可以确定所有可用模式中的最佳情况和最糟糕情况，然后测试这两种情况并对其求平均。
So I've seen some reporting on this today that says it's an average of all the modes or different ride heights or things like that. That's not my understanding reading through this. It's, you know, a little bit difficult to fully interpret this, but this is kind of the most succinct way that I've seen. It's most succinct way that I've seen it worded in this, in this sort of updated guidance.
所以我今天看到了一些报道，说这是各种模式或不同行驶高度的平均值或类似的东西。但根据我阅读的理解来看，并不是这样的。完全解读这个有点困难，但这是我见过的表述最简明扼要的方式，这也是在这份更新指南中见到的最简明扼要的方式。
So basically take the worst driving mode, best driving mode, average those out throughout the test cycle. Now, this does probably results in more realistic real world ranges.
所以基本上是将最差的驾驶模式、最佳的驾驶模式，在整个测试周期内取平均值。这样可能会得到更真实的实际行驶里程。
We've talked a lot about EPA, WLTC, CLTC. I think there was another one in there in China, any something, any DC. We've talked a lot about these test cycles over the years and how they don't necessarily always reflect real world range.
我们在过去的讨论中经常提到环保署（EPA）、世界轻型车型测试循环（WLTC）、城市轻型车型测试循环（CLTC）。我记得在中国还有一个测试标准，名字好像是“any something, any DC"。这些年来，我们对这些测试循环进行了很多讨论，它们并不总是能反映真实世界中的续航里程。
So anything that is causing those to show decreased numbers, yeah, that's going to be a more realistic reflection probably of real world range, especially if we're talking about real world highway range, which is generally probably more important to range figures.
所以，任何导致这些数字减少的因素，是对真实世界续航里程更为现实的反映，尤其是当我们讨论真实世界的高速公路续航里程时，这在续航数据中可能更为重要。
But I think the way that this is going about being implemented, it kind of reminds me of, you know, if you're doing a math homework problem or a math test or something and let's say in grade school or middle school or something like that, and you get the right answer, but you did it in an incorrect way, your math teacher might not give you full points.
在我看来，这种实施方式有点让我想起，你知道的，就像你在做数学作业或数学考试时，假设是在小学或中学，你给出了正确答案，但是用了错误的方法，你的数学老师可能不会给你满分。
This is kind of what that reminds me of. It seems like, yes, maybe it's ultimately yielding something that's a little bit more accurate. But I think the reason for the, you know, the update or the more accurate result isn't really the best implementation because it's really not giving any credit to drivers to be able to understand why they might want to or why they might select different driving modes.
这有点让我想起来。似乎它最终可能会产生更准确的结果。但我认为，更新或更准确的结果的原因并不是最好的实施方式，因为它实际上没有给予驾驶者因为何时选择不同驾驶模式的原因的任何认可。
Sometimes those things can be pretty easy to understand, right? It might be as simple as selecting a range mode if you're trying to maximize your range. A lot of EVs have modes like that.
有时候，那些事情其实很容易理解，对吧？如果你想要最大化续航里程，可能只需要选择一个续航模式就可以了。很多电动车都有类似的模式。
So it doesn't really make a lot of sense for me to say, okay, you know, your driver might not understand that. So even though there's a range mode, you also have to test it in a performance mode that maybe isn't amplifying for those types of things. When if they are trying to travel for long distances, they could pretty easily select a range mode.
所以说，对我来说，说你的驾驶员可能不明白这个并没有太多意义。所以即使有一个行驶模式的范围，你也必须在性能模式下进行测试，也许不会对这些事情进行放大。如果他们要长途旅行的话，他们可以很容易地选择一个行驶模式。
Yes, maybe ultimately yielding more accurate real world results, but it seems like the process for getting there is pretty flawed in my opinion and doesn't really respect, you know, drivers capability of understanding these different things.
是的，也许最终能够产生更准确的真实世界结果，但在我看来，实现这一点的过程似乎存在相当大的缺陷，并且并不真正尊重驾驶者对这些不同事物的理解能力。
So I think probably well intention but poorly implemented.
我认为可能是出于善意但实施得不好。
I think in general, the whole sort of EPA testing or WLTC, whatever test cycle is, it really should just be built up from scratch, right?
我认为通常来说，整个EPA测试或WLTC，无论是哪种测试循环，它都应该从零开始重新构建，对吗？
There are a number of different flaws in here. Certainly with the EPA test cycle, like speed, various different things. There's, you know, these aren't even tested outdoors. So it would be nice if this could just be sort of rebuilt and started from the ground up.
这里存在多个不同的缺陷。尤其在美国环保局的测试周期中，如速度等各种不同因素。而且，你知道的，这些甚至没有在户外进行测试。因此，如果能重新构建并从基础开始进行测试，那将是很好的。
But obviously with all of the things that are tied into this from a legislative and a regulatory perspective tied in EPA ratings and things like that, it's unrealistic to expect something like that to happen. So it's a little bit unfortunate, but nevertheless, I think the biggest thing to understand here is that nothing really changes in terms of the actual ranges of Tesla vehicles, just the updated EPA estimates there.
但显然，考虑到立法、监管以及与EPA评级等相关的事项，期望这样的事情发生是不切实际的。所以这有点可惜，但无论如何，我认为最重要的一点是特斯拉的车辆实际续航里程并没有真正改变，只是更新了EPA的估算值。
The interesting thing too that I wanted to point out is that this is only guidance for battery electric vehicles.
我还想指出的有趣的事情是，这仅仅是针对电池电动车的指导。
I'm not sure why because ICE vehicles could certainly have different driving modes and I don't know if there's other guidance for that that kind of ties that in, but this is specifically for BEVs only.
我不确定是为什么，因为燃油车肯定可以有不同的驾驶模式，而且我不知道是否有其他相关指南来解决这个问题，但这只是针对纯电动汽车。
So I don't know if that's like a level playing field again with some other guidance that applies for ICE vehicles, but kind of strange to see that specifically for just BEVs.
所以，我不知道是否有其他适用于传统燃油汽车的类似标准，是否能够实现公平竞争，但是对纯电动车而言，这是有些奇怪的看法。
Alright, the other update that we have in the design studio today is the Model Y in North America has now received the stealth gray and ultra red paint colors. So the self gray is available as the included default base color for free.
好的，今天我们在设计工作室还有另一个更新是北美地区的Model Y现已推出了隐形灰和超级红这两种车漆颜色。因此，隐形灰可以作为免费的默认基础颜色。
Ultra red coming in at $2,000 for that color option.
Ultra red的价格为2,000美元，适用于该颜色选项。
So we've seen this now with the model S and the model X now making its way to the model Y in North America. I think we've seen it pop up in. I want to say gigashang high can't recall exactly, but we've seen this before. So now an expansion of these two colors to Tesla's most popular vehicle in North America. So presumably we'll see that update with model three. I think that's where we've seen it before. Now that I'm remembering it internationally and I would imagine that as Fremont transitions will probably see that for the model three as well.
所以我们现在已经在Model S和Model X上看到了这一点，现在Model Y也在北美市场推出。我记得以前看到过类似的情况，可能是在Gigashang高中，虽然不太确定。现在，这两种颜色的扩展也将应用到特斯拉在北美最受欢迎的车型上。因此，我们可以预计Model 3也会进行这个更新。我想这就是我们以前见过的情况。现在我回想起来，在国际市场上，随着弗里蒙特工厂的转型，Model 3很可能也会采用这种更新。
All right, next up we've got an announcement from Samsung. They are announcing that Samsung will be integrating with Tesla's API. Tesla's various products like Powerwall, Home batteries or inverter, Wall connector charging solutions and EVs into their smart things sort of smart home type of system. So for iPhone users or Apple users, this would be something that's sort of comparable to Apple's home kit, where you'd be able to see various different devices. And kind of manage those in one integrated hub.
好的，接下来我们有来自三星的一则公告。他们宣布三星将与特斯拉的API进行整合。特斯拉的各种产品，如Powerwall、家庭电池或变流器、墙壁连接器充电解决方案和电动车，将纳入他们的智能物联网家居系统中。因此，对于iPhone用户或苹果用户来说，这将类似于苹果的家居套件，您将能够看到各种不同的设备，并在一个集成的中心进行管理。
This now allows Tesla products to be integrated into that with the Tesla API. So kind of cool to see that Samsung's VP or EVP of their internet of things development team said that Tesla energy customers can now manage and monitor the power status of their homes through smart things energy and Samsung devices in addition to the Tesla app, ensuring more access and connectivity. So kind of cool to see that. I would imagine that as this happens with Samsung, we'd probably see this hopefully integrated into other similar setups as well, but kind of nice for those people that do have that smart things set up. So we'll hear a little bit more about that at CES, the Consumer Electronics Show coming up pretty soon.
现在，特斯拉的产品可以通过特斯拉API与之集成。很酷的是，三星的副总裁或物联网开发团队的副总裁表示，特斯拉能源客户现在可以通过智能设备和三星设备的智能事物能源来管理和监控他们家中的电力状况，除了可以使用特斯拉应用程序外，这确保了更多的接入和连通性。这真是太酷了。我想象一下，随着与三星的合作，我们希望这种集成也能出现在其他类似的设置中，这对于那些已经安装了智能设备的人来说是不错的。所以我们很快就会在消费电子展（CES）上听到更多这方面的消息。
All right, next up, we've got a report out of Sweden. So Tesla already covering this today, saying that IF metal, of course, is, you know, trying to engage in the strike or sympathy strike, you know, kind of against Tesla in Sweden, which we've talked quite a bit about. They have offered one solution to resolve this, which could be for Tesla to hire a contractor to help with logistics and interface essentially with the transport workers union, which is sort of facilitating the strike against Tesla.
好的，接下来我们有一份来自瑞典的报告。特斯拉今天已经谈论了这一点，称IF金属正在试图发起或支持对瑞典特斯拉的罢工，我们之前已经谈了很多次。他们提出了一个解决方案，即特斯拉可以雇佣一个承包商来协助物流并与运输工人工会进行接口对接，这样可以在一定程度上缓解对特斯拉的罢工。
So kind of weird. I mean, basically, they're suggesting, hey, work with a unionized intermediary and that would resolve the issues that they seemingly have. But I thought the whole purpose of this originally was to be striking in sympathy with Tesla workers, and I don't really see how this would change anything for Tesla workers if there's just an intermediary layer, a layer between the entities. It doesn't really seem like that changes anything for the, you know, the end party, which would be Tesla, which apparently this is supposed to all be for kind of their protection, you know, even though the Tesla workers themselves aren't actually striking.
有点奇怪。我的意思是，他们基本上是在建议，嘿，与一个有工会的中介合作，这样就能解决他们 seemingly 有的问题。但我原本以为这一切的目的是与特斯拉员工表示同情的罢工，而且我不太明白如果有一个中介层，也就是两个实体之间的层次，那么对特斯拉员工来说这将如何改变任何事情。这似乎对于最终受影响的特斯拉并没有什么改变，显然这一切都是为了他们的保护，尽管特斯拉工人们并未真正罢工。
It's all very convoluted at this point, but this solution doesn't really seem to match the, you know, alleged issues. So I think it just shows that, again, it's more about the threat to the union than it really is about the workers for Tesla specifically. So we'll see. I don't know if Tesla would pursue that option. I'm not sure exactly how that would come to be. I think Amazon has done something like that. It sounds like, but, you know, we'll obviously continue to keep an eye on it.
目前情况非常复杂，但这个解决方案似乎并不真正与所谓的问题相吻合。所以我认为这只是表明，再次强调，这更多是针对工会的威胁，而非特斯拉的工人。所以我们拭目以待。我不知道特斯拉会不会选择这个选项，也不确定具体如何产生这种情况。听起来亚马逊好像做过类似的事情，但我们显然还会继续关注。
All right. We've got another recall quote unquote recall. This is in China. This is the exact same autopilot or very similar autopilot update that we had talked about with all the US recall news that we'd heard about recently. So a couple million vehicles in the US, of course, 1.6 million vehicles in China that are going to receive the over the air software update to update autopilot with some of the things that Tesla integrated in terms of the front camera, the monitoring, things like that that have been on FSD now coming over to autopilot. Most importantly, though, just another over the air update that is again getting reported as a recall. So we've talked plenty about those as well.
好的，我们又有一次所谓的召回了。这次是在中国。这是与我们最近听到的所有美国召回消息中讨论过的完全相同或非常相似的自动驾驶更新。所以美国有几百万辆车，当然中国也有160万辆车将接收通过空中软件更新来更新自动驾驶功能，其中包括特斯拉集成的前置摄像头、监控等功能，这些功能现在已经在全自动驾驶上应用了。最重要的是，这又是一个通过空中更新发布的更新，再次被报告为一次召回。所以我们也已经充分讨论过这些。
All right. Next up, we've got a lucky new cyber truck owner here with Farel Williams, music producer, very involved in the fashion world these days, but pretty big celebrity. I think he's got like 15 million followers on Instagram. He's got a cyber truck now. It looks like so he's pulling up to some event and showing off the cyber truck a little bit. It's some excellent parking there. But getting the job done, I guess, he exciting to see someone of this prominence, showing this off. It's obviously good marketing for Tesla for this to be seen like this. So I think nice to see that and definitely happy for all Williams on that.
好的。接下来，我们有一个幸运的新版网络卡车车主，Farel Williams，他是一位音乐制作人，最近在时尚界非常活跃，是一个相当知名的名人。我想他在Instagram上有1500万粉丝。他现在有了一辆网络卡车。看起来他正抵达某个活动并展示网络卡车。停车得很漂亮。我想他是为了完成任务而购买的，我猜他很兴奋能看到这样一个知名人物展示这个产品。显然，对于特斯拉来说，这是很好的营销机会。所以我认为很高兴看到这样的场景，也为Farel Williams感到高兴。
And then the last couple of things, we do have Elon commenting on a list of things that Tesla has delivered or Elon has delivered over the many, many years here by Alex Voight on X and mentioning some of the things that are coming compact car, full self driving, Robot X, humanoid robot, etc.
然后最后一件事，我们的埃隆评论了一份关于特斯拉或埃隆在这些多年里交付的事物清单，这份清单是由亚历克斯·沃伊特在X上提到的，并提到了即将推出的一些事物，如紧凑型汽车、完全自动驾驶、机器人X、人形机器人等等。
But Elon replied to this saying a few other products coming to you. So it's exciting. We haven't heard a whole lot about things that are beyond the roadmap, but Elon has alluded to things like that before that Tesla's working on that we just don't know anything about yet.
但埃隆回复说，还有一些其他产品即将面世。所以这是令人兴奋的。我们还没有听说过路线图之外的许多事情，但埃隆之前暗示过特斯拉正在研发的类似产品，只是我们目前并不了解任何详情。
So another little teaser for those types of things, maybe not specifically Tesla, but I think these are all Tesla related things. So hopefully that does apply here. So kind of exciting to see that comment from Elon.
所以这是关于一些小小的预告片，也许不专指特斯拉，但我认为这些都与特斯拉相关。希望这里也适用。所以从埃隆的评论中看到这样的消息确实很令人兴奋。
And then the last thing for today, just a quick click at the calendar for next week. We will have CPI and PPI reports coming. Those will be on Thursday and Friday morning.
接下来，今天的最后一件事，只需快速点击一下日历，看一下下周的安排。我们将有即将发布的CPI和PPI报告。这两项报告将会在周四和周五上午发布。
All right, that'll wrap it up for today. So as always, thank you for listening. Make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications. You can also find me on the X at Tesla podcast. And we'll see on Monday for the January 8th episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.
好的，今天就到这里吧。一如既往地感谢你的收听。记得订阅并打开通知，也可以在X上找到我参与的特斯拉播客。我们下周一见，那是1月8日的特斯拉每日播报。谢谢你。