Here's What's Going Wrong in the US Offshore Wind Industry | Odd Lots

发布时间 2023-11-22 11:06:10 来源

Hello and welcome to another episode of the Oddlots podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthall. And I'm Tracy Allaway. Tracy, I have to say, there are a lot of exciting things happening in energy decarbonization, electrification of the grid, things we've talked about recently with people like Jiggersha and so forth. But I have to say, I keep seeing negative headlines about wind.

大家好，欢迎收听另一期的Oddlots播客。我是乔·韦森萨尔。我是特蕾西·阿勒维。特蕾西，我不得不说，在能源去碳化、电网电气化等领域，有很多令人兴奋的事情正在发生，我们最近与像吉格夏这样的人讨论过。但我必须说，我一直看到关于风能的负面报道。

Oh my gosh. You know, just before we came in studio to record this, I was taking a look at the S&P Global Clean Energy Index.

哦天啊。你知道的，在我们进来录音室之前，我刚刚查看了S&P环球清洁能源指数。

Yeah. It's down 30% this year, more than 30% this year. And a lot of that is thanks to what's been going on in wind.

是的。今年它下降了30%以上，其中很大一部分要归功于风能行业目前所经历的情况。

Yeah. And in fact, if you look at Orsted, which I think is the world's biggest provider of offshore wind farms, it's down 50% year to date.

没错。事实上，如果你看看奥斯特德公司，我认为它是世界上最大的海上风电场供应商，它今年的股价已经下跌了50%。

Yeah. So we are recording this November 15th. I think just earlier in the week, two top orsted executives departed the company. I think there was a project off the shore of, I think, New Jersey that they that recently the plug was pulled on. And it just seems that every story everywhere around the world with the exception maybe of China, it seems to be something seems to be wrong, whether it's the math doesn't pencil out on the actual projects themselves, there are companies, I think Siemens wind has had all kinds of manufacturing issues with respect to turbines, etc. And so just trying to understand like what is going on with this industry and how bad is it in terms of if it's not going as planned, reaching our decarbonization goals as a country?

是的。所以我们是在11月15日录制这个节目。我想在本周早些时候，两位顶级奥斯特尔德高管离职了。我记得他们有一个项目，在我想是新泽西州的海岸线上，最近中止了。而且似乎每个地方的故事都有些问题，除了可能中国以外。无论是在实际项目本身上，数学计算是否可行，还是像西门子风电公司在涡轮机制造方面遇到各种问题等等。所以我们只是想了解一下这个行业到底发生了什么，如果按计划进行得不顺利的话，对我们国家达到碳减排目标有多糟糕？

Yeah. So my understanding is there are two things kind of happening at once. You could say two headwinds for the wind power industry creating a perfect storm. I'm just going to get a perfect storm would be good for wind. I'm just going to get as many weather puns as I can into this conversation. But there's higher borrowing costs because of surging interest rates. And then there are also higher component costs.

是的，我的理解是同时发生了两件事情。你可以说风电行业面临两股逆风，构成了一场完美的风暴。我只是想在这个对话中尽量多地使用天气双关语。但是由于利率上涨，借贷成本更高。另外，零部件成本也更高。

Yes. And I guess my question is how much of all of this is sort of growing pains for an industry that at least in the US is still relatively new, although it is true that it's also facing problems in places like the UK. Or is this a kind of permanent change in the industry's rejection? Basically, is wind power a low interest rate phenomenon like I don't know, we work or cheaper ubers? Is wind power a lot of hot air?

是的。我猜我的问题是，所有这一切中有多少是一个至少在美国相对较新的行业所面临的成长痛苦，尽管在英国等地也存在问题。或者这是行业拒绝的一种永久性变化？基本上，风力发电是否只是像WeWork或更便宜的优步一样的低利率现象？风力发电只是虚有其表吗？

You mentioned the renewable energy stocks and that is sort of another, I don't know, funny is the right word, but we're having this great year in the stock market so far. And how many people would have been? It's like, oh, the inflation reduction act passed. All this money pouring into renewable energy. All these incentives can't lose betting on these companies. And wind, and I think solar, I mean, it's been pretty dismal.

你提到了可再生能源股票，这种情况有点另类，我不知道怎么形容，但是股市今年表现得相当好。有多少人会这样想呢？‘哦，通胀减少法案通过了。大量资金涌入可再生能源，有这么多激励措施，投资这些公司肯定赚钱。’不过风能和太阳能，我觉得表现相当糟糕。

Yeah, absolutely. And wind especially was like a much hyped component of the renewable energy revolution. And you're right with the inflation reduction act. There is this question about how much of this is a temporary hold up given permitting issues that we've discussed with people like Jigger versus how much of this is the math just doesn't pencil out. There is something fundamentally challenging in wind. Lots of questions and we have the perfect guest to get the answers. We're going to be speaking with Chelsea Jean-Michel. She is an offshore wind analyst here at Bloomberg NEF, one of our colleagues on a different floor. So excited to chat. Chelsea, thank you so much for coming on.

是的，绝对正确。而风能尤其是被炒作为可再生能源革命的重要组成部分。你在通胀缩减法案方面也是对的。关键问题是，这究竟有多少是因为许可问题而导致的暂时滞后，这个问题我们已经与Jigger等人讨论过，而有多少是因为数学计算不合理。风能方面存在着一些根本性的挑战。这里有很多问题，我们请到了一个很合适的嘉宾来解答。我们将和Chelsea Jean-Michel进行交谈。她是彭博NEF的一名离岸风能分析师，也是我们在不同楼层的同事。非常高兴能与你聊天，Chelsea。非常感谢你的到来。

Thank you so much for having me, Jo and Tracy. Is our premise correct more or less that it's been a dismal year for the industry?

非常感谢你们邀请我，乔和特蕾西。我们的前提大致上是对的，即这对行业来说是一个糟糕的年份，对吗？

I think dismal is a bit of a big word to use. But it hasn't been great. And there have been a lot of negative headlines. And you guys highlighted a lot of the key issues already. I think maybe to highlight at a grander scale, we have seen a lot of the impacts most most saliently in the US. And Tracy mentioned, you know, it's a very new industry in the US for context. There's only seven operational turbines, 42 megawatts installed. However, there are two offshore wind farms currently under construction right now, almost a gigawatt. So the industry is growing, but we've also seen over 12 gigawatts of offshore wind projects seek to cancel or renegotiate their off-take contracts in the US.

我认为“悲惨”这个词用得有点夸张了。但事情并不太好。还出现了很多负面的报道。你们已经强调了很多关键问题。我想可能需要更广泛地强调，我们在美国看到了很多最显著的影响。特雷西提到过，你知道，在美国这是一个非常新兴的行业。目前只有七座运营中的风力涡轮机，总装机容量42兆瓦。然而，目前有两个海上风电场正在建设中，总装机容量接近1千兆瓦。所以这个行业正在增长，但我们也看到超过12千兆瓦的海上风电项目寻求取消或重新谈判他们的购电合同在美国。

Now what I mean when I say an off-take contract is that's typically an agreement that these offshore wind developers, their projects, will sign with states, state utilities to essentially guarantee that they're going to buy their power for usually around 20 to 25 years. And that's really key for an offshore wind project because they need, you know, you have variable generation. So if you can't guarantee your generation, you can guarantee the price at which that generation is sold. And that makes it easier for these projects to reach financial close, make a business case for them.

当我提到“购电合同”时，我的意思是通常是这些近海风电项目与州政府或州公用事业公司签订的协议，用于确保其电力在通常为20至25年的时间内被购买。这对于近海风电项目非常关键，因为其发电量存在不稳定性。因此，如果无法保证发电量，那么可以保证以某个价格出售该发电量。这使得这些项目更容易达到财务目标，为其提供商业案例。

Now in the US, this is interesting because this happens a little bit earlier on in a projects process. So in the UK, before you bid for an off-take contract, you need to have a grid connection agreement. You also need to have your permits in, in the US that's not needed. And so you might have a couple of years when between when you lock in your off-take contract until you finally reach financial close and then you want to construct and build the project. So that leads to a certain level of risk that's a little bit higher in the US than you see in other parts of the world. And that's also why, you know, we've seen just how much interest rates have shifted over the last few years, how much inflation's changed. And that has meant that now when these projects are looking to reach financial close, they're in a different macroeconomic environment than when they had initially placed their bids and made those assumptions back in 2019, 2020.

在美国，这很有趣，因为这在项目过程中稍微提前一些发生。所以在英国，在你竞标购买合同之前，你需要有一个电网连接协议。你还需要拥有你的许可证，在美国是不需要的。因此，在你锁定购买合同之后，可能会有几年的时间，直到最终达到财务封闭，然后想要建设和建造项目。这就导致了在美国比世界其他地区看到的风险水平稍高的情况。这也是为什么我们看到近年来利率变化如此大，通胀程度发生了多大变化。这意味着现在当这些项目试图达到财务封闭时，它们处于一个不同的宏观经济环境中，而当初在2019年、2020年进行竞标并作出那些假设时。

Oh, that's really interesting because I was wondering how higher rates are actually feeding into a lot of this given you would have assumed that the financing was in place, but you're highlighting the discrepancy between the revenue coming in through the off-take agreements and the financing that is still coming up in the higher interest rate environment.

哦，这真的很有趣，因为我一直在想在这种情况下为什么更高的利率实际上对许多问题起到了推动作用。你可能会以为融资已经到位了，但你指出了通过购销协议进入的收入与在更高利率环境中仍在进行的融资之间的差异。由这些差异造成了不一致。

So just on this note, could you maybe tell us like the factors or the calculations that go into creating a wind farm, whether it's onshore or offshore? Like if Joe and I were at a bar and we were riding on a napkin, here's our rough cost and here's like our rough revenue source. What would that napkin actually contain?

那么就这一点，你能告诉我们创建风力发电场（无论是在陆地上还是海上）所涉及的因素或计算吗？比如说，如果我和乔在酒吧里坐着，在餐巾纸上大致计算出成本和收入来源，那餐巾纸上会写些什么呢？

Yeah, so there's a lot that goes into it and it depends on, you know, if you're building in the US versus if you're building, say in the Netherlands or in Germany, but we're building in the US. We're building in the US. I'm going to move on to the Netherlands. Sorry, go on.

是的，这需要考虑很多因素，具体取决于你是在美国建造还是在荷兰或德国建造，但我们正在美国建造。我们正在美国建造。接下来我会谈论荷兰。对不起，你说吧。

Yeah, so if we're building in the US, right, for context, offshore wind development takes a really long time. As I mentioned, there's very few projects currently operational in the US right now, but around eight to 10 years is what we see globally, but in the US, you know, this can take as long as 14 years. We've seen that for some other projects that are currently in the process of getting built right now. But when you take a look at that really long process, one of the first things you think about is, okay, so that's like 10 years where you have like development costs going in, right? So you need the people that are going to help formulate the bids in the US. You have a seabed lease auction. So this is usually the first step in the process where you're like, I want to acquire my seabed for X amount of dollars. We recently saw the New York bite lease auction last year, millions and millions of dollars of revenue for the US government over $4 billion to secure these sites. And that's just step one. And then you also have, can I ask really quickly to share the US government own all the seabed beds on the outer continental shelf they do. Yeah. However, that being said, I think it's three nautical miles. That's the state waters, but most offshore wind development is going to take place in federal waters. Ah, yes. I remember this from my offshore gambling days. But yeah, so that's like a cost you can expect to pay for the seabed. Then you have kind of other development costs when it comes to, you know, bidding into an offshore and offshore wind procurement or bidding into an offshore wind solicitation. So this is where you go into say, I will bid X price. I will bid Y price. I'll bid Z price for, you know, this off take contract that we've talked about in state solicitations. And so that takes also some costs.

是的，如果我们在美国建设，就需要提供上下文，离岸风电开发需要很长时间。正如我之前提到的，美国目前只有很少几个项目正在运营，但全球来看，需要大约8到10年的时间，而在美国，可能需要长达14年的时间。我们已经看到一些目前正在建设中的其他项目需要这么长的时间。但是当你看到这个漫长的过程时，你首先会想到的是，那意味着有10年的发展成本，对吧？所以你需要有人来帮助制定美国的投标方案。你需要进行海底租赁拍卖。这通常是流程的第一步，你会说，我想以多少美元购买我的海底。去年，我们看到了纽约的海底租赁拍卖，为美国政府创造了数百万甚至数十亿美元的收入来确保这些场地。这只是第一步。还有一个问题，我可以很快地问一下，美国政府是否拥有外陆架上的所有海床？是的。然而，我认为这是在三海里范围内，那是州水域，但大多数离岸风电的开发将在联邦水域进行。啊，是的。我还记得我在离岸赌博时听说过这个。但是是的，这就是你需要为海床付费的费用。然后，当涉及投标参与离岸风电采购时，你还会有其他开发成本。你会说，我会以X价格来投标，我会以Y价格来投标，我会以Z价格来投标，以获得我们之前在州地方采购中谈到的那份合同。所以这也需要一些成本。

Now you have costs over the development lifetime. Then let's say you get to the point where you need to reach financial close and actually build that project.

现在你要面对整个开发周期的成本。然后假设你达到了需要达成财务封闭并实际建设该项目的阶段。

So let's talk about the equipment costs. This includes your turbines. This includes your foundations. This includes your transition pieces, which are kind of, you know, the pieces that exactly what they sound like transition from the foundation into the turbine. You have your array cables, which connect the turbines to each other. You have your offshore substation, which kind of collects all the power within the offshore wind farm to then get it ready to transmit to shore. Then you have your offshore cable, onshore substation, et cetera, et cetera.

那么让我们来谈谈设备成本。这包括你的风力涡轮机，包括你的基础设施，包括你的过渡件，它们就像它们的名字所听起来的那样，是从基础设施到涡轮机的过度件。你还有连接涡轮机的电缆网，还有离岸变电站，它收集离岸风电场内的所有电力，并使其准备好传输到岸上。然后你还有离岸电缆、岸上变电站，诸如此类。

So part of the reason why I mentioned, you know, the Netherlands and Germany is because these are markets where they pay for offshore transmission in the US. That responsibility falls in the developer. And then of course, you know, as you're financing the project, you also have different financing costs involved with that. So if you're using project finance and you're going to go to the bank, then you have, you know, to factor in the payments that you're going to be making to pay off your loan.

我提到荷兰和德国的原因之一是因为在这些市场上，美国的离岸输电是开发商付费的责任。当然，在你融资项目的同时，还会涉及到不同的融资成本。所以，如果你使用项目融资，并且打算去银行贷款，那么你必须考虑到你将要支付的偿还贷款的款项。

And if you're talking about lifetime costs, renewable energy is great because you don't have to pay for fuel costs. But that being said, you do have some O&M, so operate some operations and maintenance that you need to take care of as well.

而且，如果你谈论终身成本，可再生能源非常好，因为你不必支付燃料成本。但话虽如此，你还是需要负责一些运营和维护工作。

This seems complicated, Joe. So complicated. Also, you know, I have to, you know, I have one in a while, a trace that you try to convince me to write a book, you know, and I'm with me, with you. And the reason I, you know, I can't do a project that's going to take two years. That's just too long. And so when I hear, oh, the process is going to be 10 to 14 years, I can't even imagine thinking about starting out a project 10 to 14 years. I can't even do a two year project. So just that blows my mind.

这看起来真的很复杂，乔。如此复杂。而且，你知道的，我得，你知道的，过一段时间，还有一个关于你劝我写书的迹象，你知道的，我跟你是站在一起的。我也理解为什么我不能做一个需要两年时间的项目。那实在太长了。当我听到，哦，这个过程可能要花上10到14年，我甚至无法想象要开始一个要花上10到14年时间的项目。我甚至连一个两年的项目都做不了。所以那真的让我觉得难以置信。

But when you're talking about such long development timelines, it really drives home, you know, how much financing costs can matter. That's a lot of time where you're spending a lot of money on various things without revenue. And the whole math changes without the change in financing conditions.

但是，当谈到如此长的开发时间时，它真正表明了资金成本的重要性，你懂的。在这段时间里，你会在各种事情上花费大量资金而没有收入。而且，如果融资条件没有改变，整个计划的数字将发生变化。

But what do you talk to us about? Okay, what are the conditions for these developers in 2023 versus 2019, both in terms of the rate environment, but also just the inflation environment, the cost of labor, the cost of construction, the cost of steel for the materials and so forth. Like how much have things changed for them in four years, three years?

但你们跟我们讨论些什么呢？好的，那么对于这些开发商来说，2023年与2019年相比，无论是利率环境还是通胀环境，劳动力成本、建筑成本以及材料中的钢铁成本等方面的情况如何？在这四年或三年中，这些因素发生了多大的变化？

Significantly, I actually, I have those numbers. When we're talking about the impact that inflation interest rates and also you mentioned, Tracy, the inflation reduction act have had on the levelized cost of electricity. So what this means is this is essentially the price at which electricity must be sold in order to kind of break even make sure your returns are met, et cetera. So in 2021, we did some analysis estimating that the LCOE for offshore wind projects in the US, assuming a 30% investment tax credit. So this is investment tax credits as allowed in the inflation reduction act was around $77.30.

实际上，我对这些数据非常清楚。当谈到通胀、利率以及你提到的通胀削减法案对电力平均化成本产生的影响时，确实非常重要。所谓电力平均化成本，指的是必须以这个价格进行销售，以确保平衡盈亏和回报。所以在2021年，我们进行了一些分析，估计美国离岸风电项目的电力平均化成本（假设有30%的投资税收优惠，即通胀削减法案允许的投资税收优惠）约为77.30美元。

So this is assuming a 30% ITC. If you take into account CAPEX and OPEX rise, so OPEX being operational expenditure, this added around $17 per megawatt hour, then taken to account interest rate hikes. So it's around $27 per megawatt hour. But then we also had when the IRA came out, bonus tax credits. So developers could also get plus 10% for certain meeting certain requirements that took down. So it reduced the levelized cost of electricity by around $7 per megawatt hour.

假设这里考虑到30%的投资税收抵免（ITC）。如果考虑CAPEX（资本支出）和OPEX（运营支出）的增加，OPEX增加约每兆瓦时17美元，再考虑到利率上涨的影响，这个数字大约是每兆瓦时27美元。不过，当投资税收抵免（IRA）出台时，我们还获得了额外的税收优惠。开发商可以因为达到特定要求而获得额外10%，从而将电力平均成本降低约每兆瓦时7美元。

So when we're sitting here in 2023, this means that now the LCOE, assuming a 40% investment tax credit, stands around $114.20 per megawatt hour. So you can see comparing that $114 to that $77 per megawatt hour number, just how much that environment has changed.

所以，当我们坐在2023年的这个时候，这意味着现在以40%的投资税收减免计算，每兆瓦时的平均发电成本（LCOE）大约是114.20美元。因此，你可以看到将这114美元与每兆瓦时的77美元相比较，这个环境已经发生了多么大的变化。

And I think to highlight a couple of movement pieces in terms of what has been happening on a macroeconomic scale. So US CPI, so this is consumer price index to average at around 1.9% before COVID-19 in 2019. And then if you take a look at how it peaked in 2022, it was at around 9%. And so you can really see how that environment has shifted.

我认为可以强调一下在宏观经济层面上所发生的一些运动情况。所以美国的消费者价格指数（CPI）在COVID-19之前的2019年平均约为1.9%。然后，如果你看一下它在2022年的高峰时期，大约为9%。因此，你真的可以看到环境发生了如何的变化。

Also for several projects, the secured overnight financing rate. So this is the base rate for interest rates in the US, stood out around 0%, almost nothing in kind of N2020 into 2021. And then when you take a look at where it is in 2023, it's around 5.5%. And so you can see just how much the base rate for borrowing money has increased.

就几个项目而言，隔夜担保融资利率也称为美国利率基准，在2020年至2021年期间一直维持在0%左右，几乎没有变化。但是当你看看2023年时，它已经上升到了约5.5%。可以看出借贷利率的基准上升了多少。

Wow. Like a almost 50% increase in the cost, which is almost perfectly tallied with the drop in or studs share price.

哇，成本几乎增加了50%，这几乎完美地与股价下跌相吻合。

Oh, perfect. Yeah. So efficient markets right there. Okay. So you just laid out wonderfully all the different cost pressures that have landed on the wind industry. And I guess my question now is what levers can they pull to offset some of these? So you have fixed rates on the revenue side because of those off take agreements. Can they renegotiate to try to get additional money?

哦，太完美了。对啊，市场效率就在这里。好的，你刚才很出色地列出了压在风力行业身上的各种成本压力。我现在的问题是，他们可以采取哪些手段来抵消其中的一些压力呢？因为他们的收入方面有固定费率，这是由于那些购电协议所导致的。他们能否重新谈判以争取额外的资金？

And then on the cost side, I imagine putting together these massive wind turbines is a pretty expensive and complicated endeavor. But we have seen for instance in the oil industry that you can do things like have standardization on components and things like that that can bring down costs. So which of these is the industry looking at? Which in your opinion might be most effective here?

然后在成本方面，我想组装这些巨大的风力涡轮机是一项相当昂贵且复杂的任务。但是我们在石油行业中看到，可以通过标准化零部件等措施降低成本。那么行业正在关注哪些措施？在您看来，哪一种可能最有效？

So I think what comes to mind are three things. So one, the first you mentioned being renegotiation. So that's what a lot of these developers have been trying to do. So far, not really any of the renegotiation attempts have been successful. We did see some green lights in New Jersey when Orsted requested basically being able to keep some of the upside of their federal tax credits. So traditionally in their contracts, they're meant to pass down those benefits to ratepayers if they're going to get any extra access. But New Jersey passed a bill saying that no, this is okay. Orsted can keep the upside to make sure that that project goes forward.

我认为让人首先联想到的是三件事情。第一，你提到的重新谈判。很多开发商一直在尝试这么做。到目前为止，重新谈判的尝试并没有取得多大成功。不过，在新泽西州，当奥斯蒂德请求能够保留他们的联邦税收抵免中的一些盈余时，我们看到了一些积极的信号。在传统合同中，如果他们获得额外的利益，他们应该将其转给电费支付者。但是新泽西通过了一项法案，允许奥斯蒂德保留该盈余，以确保项目顺利进行。

Now even though that bill passed and Orsted was able to receive the upside, that project still did not go through. If we take a look at renegotiation attempts in Massachusetts, the regulators had also said no, we're not willing to renegotiate. And so then we saw fines of around $50 million, $60 million that these developers were paying to kind of exit those agreements so that they could then rebid into future solicitations. In New York, we also saw regulators decline requests to increase off-take prices. And so for New York, we're still waiting to see what exactly might happen. But basically renegotiating kind of opens up a whole can of worms because this is a competitive process that these developers are competing against each other for. And then the second you reopen that up to say, oh, I want to hire off-take price, then that kind of calls into question the competitive nature of the award. Wait, sorry. Explain that further when you say it calls into question. Can you clarify that?

尽管该法案通过了，Orsted也能够获得好处，但该项目仍未得以实施。如果我们看一下在马萨诸塞州的重新谈判尝试，监管机构也表示他们不愿意重新谈判。因此，我们看到这些开发商支付了大约5000万美元、6000万美元的罚款，以退出这些协议，以便能够重新竞标未来的招标。在纽约，我们还看到监管机构拒绝增加收购价格的请求。因此，对于纽约来说，我们仍在等待看到可能发生的事情。但基本上，重新谈判会带来一连串的问题，因为这是这些开发商彼此竞争的一个竞争过程。一旦重新打开这个问题，说我想要提高收购价格，那就会对获奖的竞争性质产生质疑。等等，对于你提到的“这将引起质疑”的解释，请你进一步说明吗？

Yeah. So essentially when we see something like an offshore wind solicitation, I've been using a lot of different words, solicitation procurement. They're also known as request for proposals, RFP. Some people might call them an auction. So these are essentially developers coming in. The state says, I want to procure, let's say, four gigawatts of electricity, of offshore wind power. And so then you'll have multiple developers kind of develop a proposal with different projects. They'll say, I'm developing a one gigawatt project. I'm developing a 500 megawatt project, etc. They'll then say, I'm willing to provide this project at, let's say, $100 per megawatt hour. And this project is going to commission in 2030. And so then you'll have all of these different elements.

是的，当我们看到像离岸风电招标这样的情况时，我使用了许多不同的词语，比如招标采购。它们也被称为建议书请求（RFP）。有些人可能称之为拍卖。所以基本上是开发商们进来了。州政府说，我想采购，比如说四千兆瓦的离岸风电。然后你会有多个开发商提出不同项目的建议。他们会说，我正在开发一个一千兆瓦的项目。我正在开发一个五百兆瓦的项目，等等。然后他们会说，我愿意以每兆瓦小时100美元的价格提供这个项目。而且这个项目将在2030年投产。所以你会有所有这些不同的要素。

Now usually in the US, they'll take into account the bid price. So the lower your price, the more that you can save ratepayers' money. And so then the better that looks. So that's usually around maybe 70% of the evaluation. And then you'll have 30% be attributed to things like environmental attributes, economic development opportunities, how much are you investing in the state? Also things like project viability, developer experience, different pieces like that. But the big portion is how cheap can you sell electricity to me?

通常在美国，他们会考虑投标价格。因此，您的价格越低，就能为用户节省更多的费用。所以这看起来就越好。因此，这通常占评估的大约70%。然后，还有30%归因于环境属性、经济发展机会，您在州内投资了多少等因素。此外，还有项目的可行性、开发者经验等诸多因素。但最重要的部分是您能以多低的价格卖电给我。

And so when you have these different developers essentially saying, I can sell it at this price. And this is the lowest one, or this is the most attractive one that the state selected. You award it. And then a couple of years later, you say, oh, I need an increase, then that calls into question, okay, what about the previous developers that lost out in the auction? Were they bidding at a price because perhaps they had less optimistic assumptions about what the future would be like? And their math was better.

当你面对这些不同的开发者时，他们基本上在说，“我可以以这个价格出售。” 这是最低价格，或者这是国家选定的最有吸引力的价格。你决定授予他们这个项目。几年后，你说，“哦，我需要增加价格”，那么这就带来了一个问题，之前的竞标失败者是怎么回事？他们出价的原因可能是因为他们对未来的情况持有较少乐观的预期？他们的计算可能更准确。

Exactly. So when you think about contingency planning, things like that, it's good to have an optimistic view of the future. But when the optimistic view doesn't actually end up happening, then that kind of makes it a little bit more difficult.

没错。所以当你考虑应变计划之类的事情时，对未来保持乐观态度是很重要的。但当乐观的展望实际上并未发生时，这会让事情变得有些困难。

And what about on the supply side, like the component idea, how much can be squeezed out of costs there?

在供应方面，比如零部件方面的思路，成本可以被压低多少呢？

That is a great question. So a lot of the cost declines we've seen in offshore wind has been due to increasing sizes and turbines. And so what that means is that as a turbine gets bigger, that means that oftentimes you need less turbines for the same amount of output. So for a one gigawatt wind farm, you need less turbines. If you have bigger turbines at higher rate capacities, you also need less array cables to interconnect them, less foundations, oftentimes less vessel trips needed to go in and install the turbines because there's fewer of them.

这是一个很好的问题。所以，近年来离岸风力发电成本的大幅下降主要归因于风机的尺寸和容量的增加。这意味着随着风机变得越大，通常来说，为了产生相同的输出功率，你需要的风机数量就会减少。举个例子，对于一个1吉瓦的海上风力发电场，你需要更少的风机。如果你使用容量更高的大型风机，你还需要更少的阵列电缆来连接它们，更少的基础设施工程，通常需要更少的船只来安装风机，因为风机数量减少了。

So with that being said, sometimes when you have this longer runway for offshore wind development, that means, oh, OK, well, I have a little bit longer time to kind of pick the biggest newest technology that is going to allow for cost savings on a per megawatt basis. Now that being said, a lot of these projects that have been raising red flags are a little bit more in the later stages. And so kind of reconfiguring and getting the newest and biggest turbine or signing new supplier agreements and trying to figure out where to squeeze can be a little bit more challenging because oftentimes a lot of these supplier agreements are already being put in place or have already been put in place.

因此，有时当你有更长时间来开发海上风电时，这意味着你有更长的时间来选择可实现每兆瓦成本节约的最新技术。然而，需要注意的是，很多引起担忧的项目都已经进入了较后期阶段。因此，重新配置和获取最新、最大的涡轮机，或者签订新的供应商协议，并找到节约空间的地方，可能会更具挑战性，因为很多供应商协议已经或者正在被制定。

So this was the case for Ocean Wind 1 and 2, where if you take a look at Orsted's impairment, the vast majority of it was due to supply chain complications, mostly in Ocean Wind 1. And this is because they experience kind of knock on effects from delays and kind of scheduling issues that they were having with suppliers, predominantly with vessels. And so there is some wiggle room that you can do with reconfiguration and redesigning the project. We have seen Orsted mentioned for their Skip Jack projects in Maryland that they are revisiting some reconfiguration to see if they can make the project as valuable as possible. But that being said, for some projects, it's not always possible. Sometimes you reconfigure as much as you can until you kind of have to make a final investment decision. And for some projects, you have less runway. So if you're early on in the development process, then you have more leeway to shift your designs and change your suppliers. If you're later on, it's a little bit more challenging.

所以这就是Ocean Wind 1和2的情况，如果你仔细看Orsted的减值损失，其中绝大部分是由供应链复杂性引起的，主要是在Ocean Wind 1中。这是因为他们遇到了一些与供应商的延迟和安排问题有关的连锁效应，主要是船只方面的问题。所以在项目的重新配置和重新设计方面是有一些调整的空间的。我们已经看到Orsted在马里兰的Skip Jack项目中提到，他们正在重新审视一些重新配置，以尽可能提高项目的价值。但尽管如此，对于一些项目来说，这并不总是可行的。有时候，你可以尽力重新调整，直到不得不做出最终投资决策为止。对于一些项目，你的余地较小。所以如果你在开发过程的早期阶段，那么你有更多的调整空间来改变设计和供应商。如果你现在进展较晚，这会比较困难一些。

So you mentioned supply chains. And the big stress point has actually been the vessels. For Orsted's Ocean Wind 1 and 2, that's what they mentioned. Is that the one that was going to be off of New Jersey? Yes. And wait, what's the vessel constraint? Is it actually the number of ship? What's going on there? Yeah, so the US has essentially this law called the Jones Act. I'm not sure you guys familiar. Oh, we love it. It always comes back. It always comes back to the Jones Act. No, we've done a couple episodes. I had no idea this is going to turn into a Jones Act episode. Now I'm really excited. So I have my own personal feelings about it, but that aside. I've noticed, by the way, it's like on social media, that's one of the most hot button topics that you can talk about. So you never, I never say anything about the Jones Act online. People have a really strong opinion. Okay, sorry. I mean, it's a hot button topic. So essentially, basically, if you are traveling between two points in the US, you're going to have a lot of them. Then that ship has to be US-built, US-crewed, US-flad. And what that means for offshore wind is that that offshore wind farm counts as a point. And so the US has, I mentioned seven turbines currently installed, two projects currently under construction. But what happens is because of the Jones Act, you either have to have a Jones Act compliant vessel that can do that transportation. That doesn't exist in the US right now. Basically, there's only one wind turbine installation vessel that Dominion is building right now. So I'm getting dredging. Yeah, oh my God, this is so amazing. It all comes full circle.

所以你提到了供应链。而真正的压力点实际上是船舶。对于奥斯特的Ocean Wind 1和2，这就是他们提到的。那是计划在新泽西外海的那个吗？是的。等一下，船舶限制是什么？实际上是船舶数量吗？里面出了什么问题？是的，美国实际上有一个被称为琼斯法案的法律。我不知道你们对此是否熟悉。哦，我们很了解。这总是回头看琼斯法案。不，我们已经做了几集。我完全不知道这会变成一个关于琼斯法案的节目。现在我真的很兴奋。所以我对此有自己的个人感觉，但暂且不提。我注意到，顺便说一句，这是社交媒体上一个最敏感的话题之一。所以我从不在网上讨论琼斯法案。人们对此有很强烈的意见。好吧，抱歉。我的意思是，这是一个敏感话题。基本上，如果你在美国的两个地点之间旅行，你将需要其中很多。那艘船必须是美国建造、美国船员、美国国旗的。对于离岸风电来说，这意味着离岸风电场被视为一个地点。美国目前安装了我提到的七台风力发电机，两个项目正在建设中。但由于琼斯法案的原因，你必须要有一艘符合琼斯法案规定的船舶进行运输。而目前在美国并不存在这样的船舶。基本上，只有一艘风力涡轮机安装船正在Dominion公司建造。所以，我明白了。哇，这太神奇了。一切都循环成整。

So, yeah, there's only one vessel currently under construction right now, and that's not going to be ready until a few years from now. And Dominion's planning on using that on their 2.6 gigawatt coastal Virginia offshore wind projects that's set to be the largest in the US when it commissions one of the largest in the world, which is great for them. But for other projects, Orsted was actually hoping to use this for their sunrise wind and revolution wind projects. But now that the vessel has been delayed, they are no longer able to use that Jones Act compliant wind turbine installation vessel.

嗯，目前只有一艘船正在建造中，但要等几年才能完工。Dominion计划将其用于他们的2.6千兆瓦弗吉尼亚沿岸海上风电项目，该项目一旦投入使用将成为美国最大的项目，也是世界上最大的之一，这对他们来说是很棒的。但对于其他项目来说，Orsted原本希望将其用于他们的日出风和革命风项目。然而，由于船只延迟，他们将无法使用符合琼斯法案要求的风力涡轮机安装船只。

So another thing that you can consider doing is using a European wind turbine installation vessel and then using kind of like feeder barge method. And so this is what a lot of US offshore wind projects are hoping to do. Essentially, the feeder barges are Jones Act compliant and you feed in the components to the European vessel that stays at the offshore wind site. This is traditionally not how projects are installed in Europe.

另一个可以考虑的方法是使用一艘欧洲的风力涡轮安装船，然后采用类似供应驳船的方式。这是许多美国近海风电项目所希望的做法。基本上，供应驳船符合琼斯法案要求，并将组件供给停留在离岸风电场的欧洲船只。在欧洲，传统上并不是以这种方式安装项目。

As you might imagine, usually the European WTIV will go to the port, pick up the components, load it up, go to site and then install the components. And so you kind of have this mishmosh way of doing things. And then the last one that we don't really expect to see because it's super expensive, but you might stage your components in say Canada and then use a European WTIV and then go get the components and then install them. So the Jones Act has essentially created a situation where so many vessels involved in the offshore wind installation process need to be built here and right now there's only one. So that's a huge constraint.

正如你可以想象的那样，通常情况下，欧洲的风力涡轮安装船会前往港口，装载部件，再前往现场安装这些部件。因此，你会发现这种安装方法比较混乱。而最后一种情况，我们并不真的希望看到，因为它非常昂贵，但是你可能会把部件存放在加拿大，然后使用一艘欧洲风力涡轮安装船去获取这些部件，并将其安装。所以琼斯法案基本上创造了这样一种局面，即参与海上风力涡轮安装过程的船舶需要在本地建造，而现在只有一艘这样的船。这是一个巨大的限制。

Joe, I dare you to tweet that the Jones Act causes pollution and adds to the US's carbon load by denying wind energy. I'll tweet it from my locked off that nobody knows about. Okay.

乔，我敢你发推特说琼斯法导致污染，并通过拒绝风能增加美国的碳排放量。我会从我私人的、没有人知道的账号上转发它。好的。

This actually leads nicely into another question. Just going back to the IRA. A lot of this sounds like difficulty with how the US system is set up for wind power. So you have the ship constraints via the Jones Act that you just described and then you have the permitting process, which can also be difficult. You have the sort of time discrepancy between when the off take agreements are agreed and when the financing is actually secured, which is different to other countries, different types of subsidies and things like that.

这实际上很好地引出了另一个问题。再回到IRA（美国关于风力发电的法案）。很多事情听起来像是美国的风力发电系统设置上的困难。首先，你已经提到了通过琼斯法案对船只的限制，然后还有可能比较困难的许可流程。与其他国家不同的是，在达成购电协议和确保融资的时间上存在一定的时间差异，还有不同类型的补贴等等。

How much can the government do to alleviate some of these pressures? And then on the IRA specifically setting the griping aside about the permitting process, what does it actually do to help wind power here? Does the existence of a very large underwriter in the form of the US government provide some certainty to the industry at a time when it seems like there are a lot of challenges?

政府可以做多少来缓解这些压力？关于IRA（美国风险投资公司）的问题，撇开许可流程的抱怨不谈，它真正为这里的风电行业做了什么？在看似充满了诸多挑战的时候，美国政府这一庞大的担保机构的存在是否给该行业提供了一定的确定性？

Yeah. So I think that you mentioned like what can governments do. So I think going back to one of your initial questions that I think that I'd end up missing at some point, starting at the state level, what states have begun to do is starting to introduce inflation adjustment mechanisms in their off take contracts. And so the US, I mentioned having that timeline between being so long between, you know, when you agree with that off take to the off take price and then when you actually finance the project being really long, that makes it really risky. But also another piece is that the US off take contracts are not indexed to inflation. And so what that means is that in the UK in Poland, partially in Ireland, over the 20, you know, 15, 20, 25 year off take contract lifetime, the price might go up by a certain percentage that is usually up by inflation. In the US, these projects bid at like a flat price or at a set escalator, say two or three percent. And so again, given the shifts that we've seen in the environment over the last few years, this means that these projects are not nearly as protected as they are elsewhere.

是的。所以我认为你提到了政府可以做些什么。我想回到你最初的问题之一，我觉得我在某个时候可能忽略了。从州一级开始，一些州已经开始在他们的销售合同中引入通货膨胀调整机制。所以在美国，我提到了从你同意销售合同到实际融资项目之间的时间线非常长，这使得项目非常风险。但另一个问题是，美国的销售合同没有与通货膨胀挂钩。这意味着在英国、波兰和爱尔兰部分地区，在20年、25年的销售合同期内，价格可能会按照通常由通货膨胀决定的一定百分比上涨。而在美国，这些项目以固定价格或设定的上涨比例（如2%或3%）进行竞标。因此，鉴于过去几年环境发生的变化，这意味着这些项目的保护程度远不如其他地方的项目。

And so states have been starting to say, okay, we're not necessarily going to index this price over the lifetime of the contract, but we will say we'll give you a one time and adjustment mechanism. And so in New York, what this means is from the time that you bid until the time you receive your final federal permits, your price will be indexed to metrics like steel, labor, fuel, copper, different pieces like this to help kind of protect the developers a little bit more and stay off a little bit more of that risk. So that's one beneficial thing that we've seen kind of helping this way at the state level.

因此，各州开始表示，我们不一定会在合同的整个期限内调整价格，但我们会提供一次性的调整机制。在纽约，这意味着从投标时刻到获得最终的联邦许可之前，你的价格将与钢材、劳动力、燃料、铜等因素相关联，以帮助开发商保护一些风险。这是我们在州级看到的一种有益的措施，有助于更好地支持开发者和减轻一些风险。

Now the federal level for the inflation reduction act, a lot of the big drivers for offshore wind have, you know, has been at the state level. And so, you know, the Biden administration came out with a 30 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2030 goal a few years ago.

现在，在通胀缓解行动的联邦层面，许多推动离岸风能发展的关键因素主要来自州级层面。因此，拜登政府几年前提出了到2030年将离岸风电容量增至30千兆瓦的目标。

And that's a good sign for the industry. But in reality, these off take agreements that are really what, you know, these developers need a guarantee of like route to market and, you know, a future for like how much build is going to be is there going to be in the future, you know, that kind of long term certainty. That's what the states have really been giving.

这对于行业来说是一个好的迹象。不过实际上，这些销售协议确实是开发商所需的一种保证，可以确保市场销路和未来建设规模的确定，以及长期的稳定性。这正是各个州实际上一直在提供的内容。

And so the Biden administration's goal while a good sign also just for context at Bloomberg any F in our last didn't one of your colleagues call it a pipe dream. One of my colleagues did call it a pipe dream. And you know, part of the reasons for that is because we've never once forecasted that the US was going to meet this goal even before it came out.

因此，拜登政府的目标是一个好的迹象，这在彭博社的背景下，我们上次的一位同事将其称为白日梦。我的一位同事的确称其为白日梦。你知道，其中一部分原因是因为在它公布之前，我们从未预测过美国会实现这个目标。

But it is a good sign for the industry just to kind of, you know, hammer that home. The ambition is good, but it doesn't look like it's realistic. And in our latest forecast, it looks more likely that it's going to be half of that.

但是这对行业来说是一个好兆头，可以明确地强调一下。雄心勃勃是好的，但看起来不太现实。根据我们最新的预测，更有可能只实现原来的一半。

And for the inflation reduction act, I think that the tax credits that are included in it are a very good sign. They help kind of decrease the price of offshore wind onshore wind onshore renewables in general, right? And so it becomes a more attractive space to certain investors, let's say.

就通胀减轻法案而言，我认为其中包括的税收抵免是一个非常好的信号。它们有助于在岸风能、离岸风能和其他可再生能源的价格上下降，对吗？这样一来，某些投资者就会更有吸引力。

But offshore wind is one of the most expensive renewable energy technologies out there. And so when we take a look at why developers and countries are building it, it's not necessarily because, you know, it's the cheapest, you know, form of electricity.

但离岸风力发电是目前最昂贵的可再生能源技术之一。因此，当我们研究开发者和国家为何选择建设离岸风电时，并不一定是因为它是成本最低的电力形式。

Metro wind has super high capacity factors. And so what that means is that essentially if you take the entire year and assume a wind farm is generating at 100%, the wind speeds are like ideal, generation is at 100%, but then you actually take the actual generation.

地铁风具有超高的容量因子。这意味着，基本上如果你以整个年份为基准，假设一个风力发电场运转在100%的状态，风速理想且发电量达到了100%，然后你再来看实际发电量。

So, you know, sometimes wind is variable and wind speeds are lower and the turbines, you know, aren't spinning always at high speed all the time. There's some curtailment, perhaps that percentage of the year, which it's like fully operational, is the capacity factor.

你知道，有时风力是变化的，风速较低，风力涡轮机并不总是以高速旋转。在一年的某些时间，可能会有一定程度的下调，而“容量因子”指的就是运行完全正常的百分比比例。

And so for solar, where you might have a capacity factor like 20%, and that makes sense given that, you know, it's only really generating when the sun is out, onshore wind, you might have something like 30%, or so 35%, offshore wind in the US, you can get, you know, 40, 45%. And so it's a lot higher.

因此，对于太阳能来说，它的利用率可能只有20%左右，这是有道理的，毕竟只有在阳光照射时才能真正发电。而在陆上的风电方面，它的利用率可能达到30%左右，甚至可能达到35%。在美国的海上风电方面，你能够达到40%至45%的利用率。所以，它的利用率要高得多。

And so when you're looking at renewable generation as it gets more and more integrated into the grid, having higher capacity factors, you know, having technology, which is able to generate a lot more is more beneficial for the system.

因此，当您将可再生能源发电越来越整合进电网时，拥有更高的装机利用率，拥有能够产生更多电力的技术对于系统来说更有益处。

And then also scale. So you have gigawatt scale projects that are offshore wind projects, you know, for context, you might see 100, 200 megawatt onshore wind project in the US, but that turns to 1000, sometimes 2000 megawatts when you go offshore.

然后还有规模扩大的趋势。所以你会看到吉瓦级别的项目，这些项目是离岸风电项目。作为对比，你可能会在美国看到100到200兆瓦的陆上风电项目，但是当你转向离岸风电时，这个数字会变成1000，有时甚至2000兆瓦。

And so you have things like scale, higher capacity factors, also their huge economic development opportunities really kind of being the driver for offshore wind, more so than it is the price of that electricity.

因此，你会发现像规模和更高的容量因素之类的事情，它们以及巨大的经济发展机会真的是海上风能的推动因素，而不仅仅是电力的价格。

And so I think the IRA is great for, you know, taking the impact off, you know, the price of that electricity and the amount that like states are going to have to be paying and, you know, kind of putting that on the federal budget side of things. But in terms of actually spurring on that build and making it, you know, essentially being a driver for more offshore wind growth, I think that that's really lying more so with the states than it is with the federal government in the IRA.

所以我认为IRA对于减轻电力价格和各州需要支付的费用有很大帮助，而且还可以将这种影响转到联邦预算上的一方面。但是，就在促进更多的海上风力发展并成为其推动力而言，我觉得这更多地取决于各州而不是IRA和联邦政府。

Just to hammer this point home, how much of the challenge here is the physics of wind power versus financial conditions, the increase in borrowing costs and the higher, you know, cost of physical components like labor, like ships, things like that. In other words, could there be an argument that unless those costs come down really significantly that wind power just isn't, I guess, energy dense enough to make financial sense?

为了进一步强调这一点，风力发电所面临的挑战中，物理因素和财务条件之间的比重是多少？例如，借贷成本的增加以及劳动力、船只等实际组件的成本上涨。换句话说，是否有人可以提出论点，除非这些成本显著下降，否则风力发电在能源密度方面就无法达到财务上的合理性？

That's a really interesting question. I think that one thing that's important to contextualize is that these things that we've been talking about in terms of inflation interest rates, it's not just relegated to wind, right? We have been seeing this hit, other renewable technologies, we've been seeing it hit other sectors.

这是一个非常有趣的问题。我认为重要的一点是要将我们一直在讨论的通胀利率与风力发电联系起来，并不仅仅局限于此。我们已经看到这种影响不仅仅限于风力发电，也波及到其他可再生技术以及其他行业。

I know I go to the grocery store now and say, oh my goodness, what? Like this has gone up by X amount. This is a ridiculous amount of money. Or now when, you know, you try to, you know, go for a loan, I think my parents were saying the other day the interest rates are crazy nowadays.

我知道现在我去杂货店时会说：“哦，我的天哪，怎么会这样？这个涨价了X金额。这是一个荒谬的数额。或者现在，当你尝试申请贷款时，我想我父母前几天说利率现在很高。”

And so this is something that's hit a lot of industries and it's not necessarily just wind power. If we take a look at offshore wind in particular, I think that one of the reasons why we've been seeing so much news around it is because these are large infrastructure projects. You know, they're billions of dollars. The second one project says, you know, I can no longer develop. It's huge news because that's like a gigawatt of clean electricity versus, you know, if one solar project doesn't move forward, you know, maybe that's 50 megawatts and it's gone. So it's a smaller fraction.

这种情况影响了很多行业，并不仅仅是风力发电。如果我们特别看一下离岸风力发电，我认为之所以在这方面听到了这么多新闻，是因为这些都是大型基础设施项目。你知道，它们价值数十亿美元。如果有一个项目宣布无法继续开发，这将是一个巨大的新闻，因为相当于失去了一千兆瓦的清洁电力。而如果一个太阳能项目没有前进，也许只是损失了50兆瓦，仅仅是一个较小的部分。

These are also, you know, huge government initiatives. So you might have government backed contracts now being called into question versus, you know, if you have like a corporate bilateral PPA at a smaller scale, you know, that's a little bit easier to renegotiate, perhaps have a little more wiggle room.

这些还是一些重大的政府倡议。所以现在可能有些政府支持的合同被质疑，而如果是在更小规模上有公司之间的双边购电协议，你懂的，重新谈判可能会更容易一些，或许会有更多的灵活性。

And so I think that a big portion of it is on, you know, the financing side of it and the macroeconomic situation that's impacting, you know, everything. But also if we take a look at wind and offshore wind in particular, there are some unique pieces to it that I think make it a little bit more susceptible to say, I'm trying to figure out the right words, but let's say grandiose-ness or like bigger news because they are larger projects. They are billions of dollars. They are huge when it comes to like amount, the amount of clean energy that you see it can contribute to countries, portfolios, but also from a company level as well, right?

所以我认为其中很大一部分是关于融资方面和宏观经济形势的影响，你知道，这影响了一切。但是如果我们看看风能和离岸风能，尤其是离岸风能，它有一些独特的特点，我认为会使它稍微更容易受到一些，我在寻找正确的词，但让我们称之为宏大或更重要的新闻报道，因为它们是大型项目。它们价值数十亿美元，就清洁能源产量而言，它们对国家而言贡献巨大，而且对公司层面来说也是如此，对吧？

We've seen a lot of oil and gas majors get into offshore wind and it's because, you know, they've been starting to integrate, you know, renewable energy goals into their strategies and offshore wind, you know, you win a huge seabed lease, a seabed lease auction, you get gigawatts immediately added to your clean energy portfolio. And so I think the bigness of the projects, bigness is not a word, but we'll go with it. How expensive they are, but also, you know, these longer timelines.

我们已经看到很多石油和天然气巨头进入离岸风电领域，这是因为他们开始将可再生能源目标融入到自己的战略中。离岸风电能够通过参与海域租赁拍卖获得大量千兆瓦时刻添加到他们的清洁能源资产组合中。因此，项目的规模很重要，尽管规模并非一个词，但我们使用它。项目的规模不仅仅是昂贵的，还需要更长的时间推进。

I think, I mean, I don't know about you guys, but I'm a lot more upset when I've been working on something for a really, really long time and it doesn't work out than, you know, when you've been working on it for, you know, a couple of years. Joe just admitted that he doesn't work on any long-term projects. Yeah, I don't do long-term projects. So I completely agree.

我认为，我的意思是，我不知道你们怎么看，但是当我花了很，很长的时间努力做某件事情结果失败时，我会更加心烦意乱，相比于你知道的那种花了几年时间努力做的情况。乔刚刚承认他不参与长期项目。是的，我也不做长期项目。所以我完全同意。

I have one last question, which is, okay, there are all these challenges from interest rates to statewide legal issues to the Jones Act, do whatever, if things don't get figured out. How important is the wind component to overall clean energy goals? Especially I know in the Northeast, we don't get a ton of sunlight. There aren't a ton of other alternatives for decarbonization. Just talked a little bit about the significance of somehow getting this right in terms of the U.S. is bigger strategy.

我还有一个最后的问题，就是，如果各种挑战，从利率到州级法律问题再到琼斯法案等等不能解决，那么风能在整体清洁能源目标中有多重要？尤其是我知道在东北地区，阳光相对较少，减碳的其他选择也不多。能否简单谈谈如果在美国的整体战略上做对这件事有多重要？

Yeah, I mean, I think it's huge. For context, our view at BNF is that this is more of a bump in the road than anything. So for years, we've seen cost declines, cost declines, cost declines, cost declines, especially in solar. And now is one of the first time in years where we've seen a little bit of a bump in costs. And so a lot of it in part is due to the inflationary pressures and higher cost of capital that we've been seeing. Now we do think we're going to see a return to normal, whatever that means to you in the next few years. And so then we should come back to seeing some cost declines. And yes, there are bigger components. And I think that there are some structural issues that the industry needs to work out.

是的，我的意思是，我认为这是一个巨大的问题。在BNF这方面，我们的观点是，这只是一条颠簸在前方的路而已。多年来，我们见证了成本不断下降，尤其是太阳能。但是现在是多年以来第一次我们看到成本开始有所上涨。其中很大一部分是由于通货膨胀压力和资本成本上升所导致的。现在我们认为，在未来几年内将会恢复到正常水平，无论对于你来说正常意味着什么。因此，我们应该会看到一些成本下降的回归。是的，存在一些更重要的组成部分。我认为这个行业还需要解决一些结构性问题。

I mentioned bigger turbines being a huge push, a huge reason why we've seen cost declines in offshore wind. Then there's also the question of how big can those turbines get? Yeah. I saw like one of them or some of them are now like 350 feet or like 100 meters, something like that, the blades. Yeah, I think in meters. The Vestas 15 megawatt turbine has a 236 meter rotor diameter. Oh my gosh. Yes, they're really big. But yeah, as they get bigger, you need vessels that are going to be able to install them ports that can house them, factories that can manufacture them. The entire supply chain has to grow with it. And so there's some structural issues there that also need to be worked out. And turbine makers have differing strategies on whether or not it's better to keep going big or to kind of maintain it one turbine size.

我提到大型涡轮机是一个巨大推动力，也是我们看到离岸风能成本下降的一个重要原因。然后还有一个问题，那就是这些涡轮机能有多大？是的，我看到它们中的一些现在已经达到了大约350英尺或100米的叶片长度之类的尺寸。是的，我想用米来表示。Vestas 15兆瓦涡轮机有236米的转子直径。天哪。是的，它们真的很大。但是，随着尺寸越来越大，你需要能够安装它们的船只，能够容纳它们的港口，能够制造它们的工厂。整个供应链也必须随之发展。因此，在这方面也存在一些结构性问题需要解决。而且涡轮机制造商在是否继续增大尺寸或保持一个统一的涡轮机尺寸方面有不同的策略。

Now that aside, in terms of like how important it is to your question, Joe, yeah, we can't necessarily just have an energy system that's made completely of solar panels, right? The sun's going to rise. You're going to have lots and lots and lots of solar energy and then it's going to set and then everyone's in a blackout. You know, that doesn't really make sense. Then you add storage. How many batteries can you add? You have wind. You want to have different sorts of electricity sources with differing profiles so that your system can be a little bit more flexible. You can be a little bit more nimble with moving your resources around so that you can actually go where demand is needed. So that includes investments in the grid, right? And making sure that that is upgraded to a point where electrons can flow a little bit more easily. And in the northeast, as you mentioned, there's not a lot of sun and it doesn't always make a whole bunch of sense to build solar even if it might be cheaper on a levelized cost of electricity basis than onshore offshore wind.

现在来说，就像对于你的问题来说有多重要，乔，我们不能仅仅建立一个完全由太阳能电池板构成的能源系统，对吧？太阳会升起，你会有大量的太阳能，然后它会落山，然后大家就会陷入黑暗。这其实并没有什么意义。然后你再加入储能设备。你可以添加多少电池？你有风能。你希望拥有不同类型的电源，具有不同的特点，这样你的系统就可以更加灵活。你可以更加灵活地调配资源，以满足需求的地方。所以这包括对电网的投资，确保它升级到一个电子流更加顺畅的程度。正如你提到的，在东北地区，阳光很少，即使太阳能在电力成本水平化比上岸外海风能更便宜，建设太阳能系统也并不总是完全合理。

So the big push in the northeast for offshore wind has to do with, you know, we see these really high electricity price spikes in the winter because, you know, gas, due to gas constraints and high prices for gas. And so offshore wind kind of helps offset that a little bit more. So those kind of tie into some of the other benefits that I mentioned, not necessarily environmental attributes and economic benefits, but when you look at the electricity system as a whole and kind of trying to reduce, you know, those price spikes and price drops, offshore wind can kind of help add wind that way. So there are benefits there that I think are good for the industry. And I think wind is a really big, necessary part of the energy transition.

东北地区海上风力发电的主要推动力与冬季出现的高电力价格峰值有关，原因是天然气受限和价格高企。因此，海上风力发电可以在一定程度上缓解这种情况。这些好处与我之前提到的环境属性和经济利益有一定的联系，但更多地是从整个电力系统的角度考虑，试图降低价格的波动，海上风力发电可以提供更多的风力发电。因此，我认为这些好处对这个行业来说是有益的。而且，我认为风能是能源转型中非常重要且必不可少的一部分。

Chelsea, Jean-Michel, that was amazing. That answered so many questions. Really appreciate you coming on the podcast.

切尔西、让·米歇尔，太棒了。你回答了那么多问题。非常感谢你能参加这个播客节目。

Yeah, we're sure happy to be here. Thank you guys.

是的，我们非常高兴能来到这里。谢谢你们。

Yeah, that was great. Tracy, I thought that was great. That answered so many questions and the fact that it ended up coming back around to being a Jones and up to just, it was like a classic interview from my perspective. We should have seen it coming. I didn't, I had no idea. I had no idea that was a big part of the story. Yeah. There was so much packed into that. Chelsea got so much in, struggling to think about where to start.

是的，太棒了。特蕾西，我觉得太棒了。那个回答了很多问题，而且最后又回到了琼斯家族，简直就是一场经典的采访，我的观点如此。我们应该早就预料到了。可是我没有，我一点都不知道那是故事的重要部分。是的。那里面包含了太多的内容，切尔西问得太多了，我想都不知从哪里开始。

But so one thing I'm thinking is like on the one hand, a lot of this sounds really complicated to solve. So these are huge infrastructure projects as she laid out, working on very long timelines. And so you would imagine that the macro environment might change, you know, as the project actually matures and comes to fruition. On the other hand, it does seem like there are some little things that could be kind of fixed almost immediately. So the idea of off take contracts actually being indexed to inflation. I'm sure that would be a extremely politically unpopular move. But I guess if other countries are doing it, maybe you could make the argument. And if wind power is a necessary source of energy to get us to our carbon goals, like maybe there is some political appetite for making the projects more financially sound. But yeah, it seems like it's complicated. It seems like there are like multiple things happening here and multiple levers you could pull. And the question is, again, like, which are the most efficient and at the end of the day, if you do all of them, is wind power still efficient and financially viable?

所以，我在想的一个问题是，一方面，很多事情听起来解决起来非常复杂。正如她所提到的，这些都是庞大的基础设施项目，需要长时间的施工。因此，可以想象，随着项目的成熟和实现，宏观环境可能会发生变化。另一方面，似乎也有一些小问题可以立即解决。例如，将收购合同与通货膨胀挂钩的想法。我敢肯定，这将是一个极不受欢迎的政治举措。但是如果其他国家正在这样做，也许你可以提出这个论点。并且，如果风能是实现碳减排目标所必需的能源来源，也许政府有意愿使项目在财务上更可行。但是，问题似乎很复杂。似乎同时发生了很多事情，可以采取多种措施。问题是，再次强调，哪些措施最有效？如果所有措施都采取了，风能是否依然高效且具有财务可行性？

Yeah. And you could see though too, like even with all of these challenges from engineering to financing, the prize is great. Right. I think I saw some stand when the all it takes is one spin of the blade, literally just one. And that powers multiple houses for a few days or something like that. And there's just so much potential energy out there, you know, a couple miles off the shore that you could see why there's this pursuit.

是的。而且你也可以看到，尽管有这么多来自工程学到融资的挑战，这个奖励仍然很大。没错。我想我看到一些展示，只需要一次风车叶片旋转，真的只需要一次，就可以为几天甚至更长时间为多户人家供电。而且在离岸几英里处存在着如此巨大的潜在能源，你能明白为什么要追求这个了吧。

But then also, you know, there are so many different follow up conversations that we can now have related to questions about, well, what is the optimal size of the blade or the optimal size of the turbine and all these different things that you could see or the ultimate, the optimal bidding process as you described. Oh, yeah. That was really interesting.

然后，你知道的，现在我们可以有很多不同的后续对话，与关于最佳叶片尺寸或最佳涡轮尺寸以及其他你能想到的各种问题有关。还有，像你所描述的，招标过程的最佳方式也是一个非常有趣的话题。哦，是的，那真的很有意思。

Also, like the idea, the renegotiation of the off take agreements and the idea that, like, obviously the environment has changed. So if you're an energy provider, you might want to get additional revenue to cover your costs, but given the way those auctions are structured, you can't really do that in a fair way. So that's the market's future episodes for sure.

另外，还像这个理念，重新协商收购协议以及明显的环境变化。因此，如果你是一个能源供应商，你可能希望获得额外收入来弥补成本，但鉴于这些拍卖的结构，你无法以公平的方式实现这一点。所以这对市场的未来来说肯定是一个问题。

Yeah. And probably a Jones Act debate in our future. Yes, for sure.

是的。也许我们将来会有一场琼斯法案的辩论。是的，肯定会有的。

All right. Shall we leave it there for now?

好的。我们现在就暂时停在这里可以吗？

Let's leave it there.

我们就把它放在那里吧。

Okay. This has been another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. And I'm Jill Wiesenthal. You can follow me at the stalwart. Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Armin, Dashal Bennett at Dashpot and Kel Brooks at Kel Brooks. Thank you to our producer Moses Ondom. For more Odd Lots content, go to Bloomberg.com slash Odd Lots where we have a blog, transcripts and a newsletter. It comes out every Friday.

好的，这是奇怪的乐事播客的又一集。我是特蕾西·阿劳韦。你可以在特蕾西·阿劳韦的推特上关注我。我是吉尔·威森塔尔。你可以在the stalwart 的推特上关注我。还请关注我们的制作人卡门·罗德里格斯（Carmen Rodriguez），推特名为Carmen Armin，达夏尔·贝内特（Dashal Bennett），推特名为Dashpot，以及凯尔·布鲁克斯（Kel Brooks），推特名为Kel Brooks。感谢我们的制作人莫西斯·昂顿（Moses Ondom）。如果想要获取更多奇怪的乐事内容，请访问Bloomberg.com/Odd Lots，我们有一个博客、文字记录和每周五发布的电子简报。

And if you want to chat with people about energy, one of the favorite places I go to check energy news in the Discord, we actually have two channels that this is relevant to. We have a climate channel energy. People are chatting in there about these topics 24 seven discord.gg slash.

如果你想与人们讨论能源问题，我会推荐你去Discord查看能源新闻。实际上，我们有两个相关的频道可供使用。我们有一个气候频道和一个能源频道。人们在那里24/7地讨论这些话题。网址是discord.gg/ [斜杠]。

And if you enjoy Odd Lots, if you want us to hold that Jones Act debate, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks for listening.

如果你喜欢《奇怪的货架》，如果你想让我们进行那场关于Jones法案的辩论，请在你最喜欢的播客平台上给我们一个正面评价。感谢你的收听。