Selling $5.5B+ Worth of Car Dealerships | Alan Haig
发布时间 2023-12-28 10:00:21 来源
He has sold over $5.25 billion worth of car dealerships and he's ready to share all his secrets.
他已经卖掉了价值超过52.5亿美元的汽车经销商，并且他愿意分享自己的所有秘密。
Today I'm speaking with Alan Hay, the founder and president of Hay Partners, a dealership by-sell advisory that helps dealers maximize their value in selling their business. We discuss Alan's perspective on the current state of the auto market, the most and least desirable dealership franchises, Toyota's strategic retail moves, what's next for dealership profits, and much more.
今天我将与Alan Hay进行对话，他是Hay Partners的创始人和总裁，该公司为经销商提供交易咨询服务，帮助他们最大化销售业务的价值。我们将讨论Alan对当前汽车市场状况的观点，最受欢迎和最不受欢迎的经销商特许经营权，丰田的战略零售举措，经销商利润的下一步发展方向等等。
Don't forget to click subscribe so you never miss an episode.
不要忘记点击订阅，这样你就不会错过任何一集了。
What's up everyone, this is Car Dealer Ship Guy, you're listening to the Car Dealership Guy podcast which is my effort to give you access to the most unbiased and transparent insights into the car market.
大家好，我是汽车经销商的人，你正在收听的是我的汽车经销商人播客，我的努力是给你提供对汽车市场最公正和透明的见解。
But before we get into the show, this episode is brought to you by Car's Commerce. The platform will simplify everything about buying and selling cars, including the quote-unquote follow-up.
在我们开始演出之前，本集节目由Car's Commerce赞助。该平台将简化买卖汽车的一切，包括所谓的后续工作。
Let me explain. Dealers, fast and effective follow-up is crucial for converting leads into customers. But here's the problem. 40% of shoppers report that they are not getting timely or helpful responses from dealerships. This is a huge problem because your own team could be leading four out of every ten sales opportunities on the table. Car's Commerce makes it simple to measure and improve your follow-up performance. A Cars.com Experience Report tracks the percentage of leads your team is responding to and how customers rate those responses. While Dealer Inspires Retailing Technology enables your team to quickly text follow-ups with personalized financing options to make the most out of every opportunity.
让我解释一下。对于将潜在客户转化为顾客来说，经销商快速有效的跟进至关重要。但问题在于，有40%的购物者表示他们在经销商处得不到及时或有帮助的回应。这是一个巨大的问题，因为你的团队可能会因此错失十分之四的销售机会。Car's Commerce使得衡量和改善你的跟进表现变得简单。Cars.com的购物体验报告追踪你的团队对潜在客户的回应率以及顾客对这些回应的评价。而Dealer Inspire的零售技术使你的团队能够快速通过短信跟进，并提供个性化的融资选择，以充分利用每一个机会。
To learn more about how you can measure and improve your team's follow-up performance, go to carscommerce.ink slash experience or click the link in the show notes below.
要了解如何衡量和提高团队的跟进表现，可访问carscommerce.ink slash experience或点击以下节目备注中的链接。
This episode is also brought to you by Hague Partners. I'd like to thank Hague for coming on as a guest and also supporting this podcast.
本集由 Hauge Partners 赞助。感谢 Hauge Partners 作为嘉宾出席并支持这个播客节目。
We're probably going to have the third best year in the history of our industry in terms of the number of rooftops that are selling. The value is still quite high for these dealerships. The values are coming down. We're going to have our best year as a firm, which is wonderful.
在销售数量方面，我们很可能会成为行业历史上第三好的一年。对于这些经销商来说，价值仍然相当高。价值正在下降。作为公司，我们将会有我们的最佳一年，这是非常棒的。
We saw a little fewer stores this year than last year. The value per store has been very high. We've had some transactions get pushed from the fourth quarter to the first quarter. The first quarter for us, if everything we have that's under definitive agreement and L.O.I. closes, we'll sell more stores in the first quarter than we sold all last year. That's just our firm. Sometimes you get these fluctuations, a group of stores closes one month later, it's always cheap economics. But it's still a very active buy-sell market.
今年我们看到的商店比去年少了一点。每个商店的价值非常高。我们有一些交易从第四季度推迟到了第一季度。对我们来说，如果所有我们达成明确协议和意向书的交易都落实了，我们在第一季度将比去年全部销售的商店还要多。这只是我们公司的情况。有时候你会遇到这种波动，一批商店在一个月之后关闭，这总是一个廉价的经济学。但市场买卖仍然非常活跃。
One of our clients signed a letter of intent on Friday for a group of three stores that priced above the top of the range of estimated to him. Now those stores included a lot of Toyota, which is maybe the hottest franchise today. We're in the market with over 60 other dealerships where they were engaged to sell. The response we're getting so far is still a lot of interest, but also a lot of questions. People are wondering, how do you value these stores now? Because the earnings are dropping. The supplies come back, which means that dealers are now having to compete to sell the products. They can't just sit back and take orders. They have to go become retailers again. Some cases that means not charging over sticker. In some cases with some products like the EVs, we just talked about, they're significant discounting.
我们的一位客户在上周五签署了一份意向书，以高于估值范围顶部的价格购买了一个由三家商店组成的集团。现在这些商店包含着许多丰田品牌，可能是当今最热门的特许经营权。我们正在市场上与其他60多家经销商一起销售这些商店。到目前为止，我们得到了很多的兴趣回应，但也有很多问题。人们想知道，现在如何评估这些商店的价值？因为利润正在下降。供应恢复，这意味着经销商现在必须竞争销售产品。他们不能坐下来等待订单。他们必须再次成为零售商。在某些情况下，这意味着不再高价销售。对于一些产品，例如我们刚刚讨论的电动车，他们正在提供重大折扣。
When I'm high, my teammates send me a text today for a Porsche Taycon lease. The lease is $483 a month for a Taycon. Two-year lease, low mileage lease, I think it's 10,000 miles over two years. But no, excuse me, $4.2353. This was a $95,000 car. How do you reconcile that? What's driving that?
当我处于嗨的状态时，我的队友今天给我发了一条关于保时捷Taycon租赁的短信。租赁每月需要支付483美元，租期为两年，里程较低，我想是两年内10000英里。但是，不好意思，是 42,353美元。这辆车原价为95,000美元。你如何调和这个差距？是什么原因导致这个价格？
All the factories, the OEMs have committed to produce a certain amount of vehicles, certain percentage of their vehicles in the vehicles. They're going to have to prime the pump and somehow get the existing EVs sold and maybe begin to lobby behind the scenes just like all the dealers have. There was $3,000, all the dealers sent. President Biden's administration a letter was two weeks ago saying we need to slow down this ship from ICE to EVs because the demand's not there. It's creating all types of distortions and inefficiencies. They're going to cost jobs and they're going to cost consumers a lot of money and they're going to make people unhappy. I think the politicians are going to listen because politicians are voted into office by consumers and if the consumers believe they're being forced to buy products they'll like at expensive prices, the deltzer of all their needs, they're going to react by putting different people in power.
所有工厂和原始设备制造商（OEMs）已承诺生产一定数量的电动车辆，并将其中一定比例的车辆用于销售。他们将不得不采取措施，以某种方式推动现有的电动车销售，并可能开始在幕后进行游说，就像所有经销商一样。两周前，所有经销商一起向拜登总统的政府发送了一封信，表示我们需要减慢从传统燃油车到电动车的转变的速度，因为市场需求还不足。这会引发各种扭曲和低效，导致失业，给消费者造成很大负担，令人不满。我认为政界人士会听取这个声音，因为政界人士是由消费者选出的，如果消费者认为他们被迫购买昂贵的产品，而这些产品并不符合他们的需求，他们会通过改变权力的方式来回应。
I think this is a technology that I think many of us want to have more of in our lives to use the carbon footprint that we're putting out there. But dealers are on the front lines. They're kind of the grease between the consumer and the factory and they're saying loud and clear, the dealers that this push towards EVs coming too soon, too hard and many of them point towards Toyota as a rational proponent of hybrids where you can have the benefits of a plug-in hybrid can go 40 miles on only EV power which satisfies maybe 90% of the daily trips or 40 miles or less but still have the range to drive 400 miles if you need to go to grandma's house or in South Florida, escape or hurricane. You can just get in the car and go.
我认为这是一项我们很多人都希望在生活中有更多应用的技术，以使用我们所排放的碳足迹。但是经销商处于前线，他们是消费者和工厂之间的润滑剂，而他们明确表示，对于电动汽车的推动来得太快、太激烈，其中很多人指向丰田作为混合动力的合理拥护者，混合动力能够享受到插电式混合动力的好处，其仅凭电池就能行驶40英里，这能满足可能90%的日常行程或者行程在40英里以下的需求，但仍然拥有400英里的行驶里程，以便在需要去奶奶家或南佛罗里达逃离飓风时使用。你只需要坐上车就可以出发。
I want to ask you two questions there. First of all, you put out a quarterly report called the Hagerport, right? We're linking in the show notes below. Super, super in-depth, comprehensive report on the state of the car market and then with an even more in depth, I'll do just the car market M&A dealership M&A. So highly recommend checking it out. You mentioned in the Hagerport, dealership profits are down 17% year over year, still up 2.5x from pre-pandemic levels, yet valuations remain more or less the same. How does this make sense? What are investors? What are people seeing in the car market? What are they gravitating towards?
我想在这里问你两个问题。首先，你发布了一个名为“Hagerport”的季度报告，对汽车市场的状态进行了非常非常深入、全面的分析，然后还更加详细地分析了汽车市场的并购以及经销商的并购。非常推荐大家去查阅一下。在“Hagerport”中提到，经销商的利润同比下降了17%，但仍然比疫情前水平增长了2.5倍，然而估值基本保持不变。这是怎么解释的？投资者看到了什么？人们在汽车市场上倾向于什么？
Well, profits drive value and when the pandemic hit, initially there was a deterioration in dealership values because buyers weren't sure how long this pandemic was going to last or what the impact was going to be and sellers were also a little bit scared with how long it's going to be and what would the values be after the pandemic ended, if it ever ended. So the dealership values dropped maybe 15% in 2020 and then we saw them just take off and they really grew. When I talk about dealership values, I'm going to focus on the goodwill component, the intangible value. Real estate hasn't changed that much the last couple of years. Other asset values are kind of set by the market, but the goodwill value is what varies a lot based upon the profitability of the business. And so as the profits took off and profits tripled, more than tripled at the average dealership, blue sky values went up about 2.5x. They didn't triple like profits did because buyers knew that eventually these profits would begin to decline and go back somewhere towards where they were before the pandemic hit. So profits tripled, dealership values went up about 2.5x. Now they're trending back down. We estimate that dealership values have fallen 17% since the end of 22. So that's a material change. So it's down 17% from the, I call it almost the peak in 22. And our expectation is that they're going to continue to decline on average as the supply increases, supply gives less leverage to the dealer, more leverage to the consumer, interest rates are still pretty high. Next year, they're going to come down. We hope the floor plan rates are high. There's been inflation, et cetera. So the new vehicle grosses have dropped, gosh, 25% according to our math on average. Since the end of 2022, used vehicle grosses have dropped 13%. F&I is flat. Fixed is up. That's been a wonderful source of incremental profit for dealers and it demonstrates the strength of the auto retail model where you might sell from one department, but you can make up for a different department.
嗯，利润驱动着价值。当大流行爆发时，由于买家不确定疫情会持续多久或会产生什么影响，汽车代理商的价值一开始出现了下降，卖家也对疫情持续时间和疫情结束后的价值感到担忧，如果疫情真的会结束的话。所以，在2020年汽车代理商的价值可能下降了15%，然后我们看到它们开始飙升，实际上真的是增长了。当我谈论汽车代理商的价值时，我将重点关注无形价值中的商誉部分。房地产在过去几年里变化不大。其他资产价值有点由市场决定，但商誉的价值很大程度上取决于企业的盈利能力。所以，由于盈利开始飙升，而汽车代理商的盈利增长了两倍半。它们没有像利润那样增长两倍，因为买家知道这些利润最终会开始下降，并回到疫情爆发之前的水平。所以，利润翻了两倍，汽车代理商的价值增长了2.5倍。现在它们正在趋于下降。我们估计，自2022年底以来，汽车代理商的价值已经下降了17%。这是一个实质性的变化。所以，它下跌了17%从22年的峰值来讲。我们预计，随着供应量的增加，汽车代理商的价值将继续平均下降，供应量对经销商具有较少的影响力，对消费者具有更多的影响力，利率仍然相当高。明年，利率会下降。我们希望库存计划的利率高。目前存在通胀等问题。所以，根据我们的计算，新车的毛利率平均下降了25%。自2022年底以来，二手车的毛利率下降了13%。金融与保险业务处于平稳状态。固定成本有所增加。这对于经销商来说是一种增量利润的好来源，它也证明了汽车零售模式的强大之处，即你可以从一个部门销售，但可以弥补另一个部门的损失。
Correct. And friend, anyone listening, like, so just want to couple terms here to define, right? You mentioned goodwill. Goodwill, you're referring to blue sky, blue sky goodwill, same thing, same term and car business fixed. Of course, you're referring to service department, parts department at a dealership, pretty much anything that's not sales or the finance income that dealers have. That's right. Would you're referring to goodwill has risen for dealerships? Is it that the actual absolute value has risen because profits are higher? Or is it that the actual multiple has risen? Meaning, I may have paid four times on earnings of a dealership and now I'm paying five times earnings of the dealership or a combination of both. What is it?
正确，朋友，如果有人在听的话，好像是要把几个术语结合起来定义一下，对吗？你提到了商誉。商誉，你指的是蓝天，蓝天商誉，也就是同样的概念，在汽车经销商固定资产中。当然，你指的是经销商的服务部门、零部件部门，几乎包括所有与销售或金融收入无关的部门。没错。你所指的商誉上升是指汽车经销商的实际价值上升了吗？是因为利润增加了吗？还是指实际倍数上升了？也就是说，以前我可能会为经销商的收益付出四倍的价格，现在我为经销商的收益付出五倍的价格，还是两者兼而有之？这是什么情况？
It's two factors that go into calculating goodwill. And for traditional dealership buyer, they're looking at a multiple of pre-tax earnings that they expect to make in the future. And sometimes the best predictor of the future is the past, right?
计算商誉需要考虑两个因素。对于传统的经销商买家来说，他们会关注未来预计获利的税前收益倍数。有时候，过去是最好的未来预测指标，不是吗？
So if before the pandemic hit, dealership profits were very flat for five years before the pandemic hit. So you can take a look at last risk profits and estimate that would be the same as next year's profits. And different franchises trade for different multiples.
所以，在疫情爆发之前，经销商的利润在疫情爆发前五年非常稳定。因此，你可以查看最近一年的利润，估计明年的利润也将相同。而不同的特许经销商会以不同的倍数进行交易。
So Portia's are super desirable. Franchise is very rare. They almost never come. When they do, people pay a lot. They might pay nine or 10 times the prior year's earnings for a Porsche store.
所以，保时捷是非常受欢迎的。保时捷特许经营店非常罕见。它们几乎没有出现。一旦出现，人们会支付很多钱。他们可能会为了一家保时捷店支付前一年收益的九到十倍。
Four dealership, General Motors dealership, Solanus dealership, they're way more numerous. And so there, frankly, there's less competition to buy that was there more options for buyers, so they don't pay the same multiple.
有四家经销商，通用汽车经销商，索拉努斯经销商，它们的数量更多。而且，坦率地说，由于竞争较少，购买者更有选择，因此他们不会支付相同的溢价。
So I think when the pandemic hit, it kind of scramble the math for buyers because the earnings were going up significantly. So as a dealership buyer, you kind of had to project, well, how far will they go and how long will they stay up there?
所以，我认为当疫情爆发时，买家们的数学运算有点乱套了，因为收入一直在大幅增长。作为一名经销商的买家，你必须预测，他们的收入将增长到什么程度，能够维持多久。
So we started to see some different formulas being used, rather than just last year's earnings, this combination of maybe last year's earnings and the last 12 months, aren't it? Average those two together say, well, it's going to go up.
所以我们开始看到一些不同的公式被使用，不仅仅是去年的收益，可能是去年的收益和过去12个月的收益的结合，对吗？将这两者平均起来，会得出结论，嗯，它会增长。
It's not going to stay up somewhere between pre pandemic and pandemic loans. And that formula has evolved. Partially, the ship guy over the last couple of years, and it's evolving again now.
这意味着贷款额度在疫情前和疫情期间之间不会保持稳定。而且这个计算公式已经发生了变化。部分原因是过去几年中的金融市场波动，现在又再次发生了变化。
Where for certain franchises, the grossest have come down significantly like it's Solanus. You know, I think the average Solanus store today may be making the same for the last than it was in 2019.
对于某些特许经营店铺来说，最恶心的情况已经显著改善，就像是索兰纳斯（一种商业地产）一样。知道吗，我觉得如今的平均索兰纳斯店铺的收入可能与2019年相比持平或者更多。
So any buyer that's buying a Solanus store is just going to throw out what happened in 2020 and 2021 and 2022, because those profits are history. Now they're going to wonder how long is the current state going to continue where they have too much supply and therefore their gross profits on the front end or too low.
所以，无论是哪位购买 Solanus 商店的买家，都将抛弃 2020 年、2021 年和 2022 年的所发生的事情，因为那些利润已经成为历史。现在，他们将想知道目前的状况还会持续多久，即他们面临供应过剩而导致前端毛利过低的情况。
So for Solanus, it's a totally different math than for instance, at Toyota or Honda, where they're still in a situation of very short supply that excellent product coming out. We have one Toyota representing, it's very profitable.
对于Solanus来说，这是一种完全不同的数学，与丰田或本田等公司完全不同，在那里，他们仍处于供应非常短缺但优质产品仍然源源不断的情况下。我们有一个代表丰田的，它非常有利可图。
So we're $29 a year. Their profits are higher over the last 12 months than they were in 2022 or 2021. They're still going up. So Josh, that business is how do you explain that? Like, how is Toyota doing so well when their market share keeps declining?
所以，我们每年有29美元。他们过去12个月的利润比2022年或2021年都要高。他们的利润仍在增长。所以，乔什，你怎么解释这个生意呢？就是说，尽管丰田的市场份额持续下降，但是他们的表现如此出色，你有什么解释呢？
I don't know why they've had a harder time producing units compared to Korean brands. The Korean brands did an excellent job keeping their dealer supplied during the pandemic. They didn't seem to have the same chip shortages as some of the Japanese brands did.
我不知道为什么与韩国品牌相比，他们在生产单位方面遇到了更多困难。韩国品牌在疫情期间的供货方面做得非常出色。与某些日本品牌相比，他们似乎没有遇到同样的芯片短缺问题。
So you know, there's the Korean manufacturers maybe been very well, because it was selling a lot of cars without having to discount them. Some of the Japanese brands and I would say Honda and Toyota both suffered from Malacca supply the last two, three years.
你知道，韩国制造商可能表现得非常出色，因为他们能够不打折就卖出很多车。而过去两三年里，一些日本品牌（尤其是本田和丰田）都受到了马六甲供应问题的影响，遭受了一些损失。
They may not be making as much money as they could have. They had more products to sell. But for the dealers, they're still in the situation of under supply when it comes to consumer demand.
他们可能没有赚到他们本可以赚到的那么多钱。他们有更多的产品可以销售。但对于经销商来说，当涉及到消费者需求时，他们仍然处于供给不足的境地。
And Toyota Financial Services is an excellent captive finance company for Toyota dealers. They get a lot of deals placed that other lenders might not place. So they're a great source of success for Toyota dealers. And now they've got this new wave of products coming out. They haven't really hit the showroom floor.
丰田金融服务是丰田经销商的优秀专属金融公司。与其他放贷机构不同，他们能获得很多其他放贷机构可能无法获得的交易。因此，他们对于丰田经销商来说是成功的重要来源。现在他们有一批新产品即将推出，尽管这些产品还没有真正进入展厅展示。
So I'm not sure that Toyota has peaked yet in terms of dealership profits. You have the new Tacoma coming, the new Forerunner, the new Landcraiser is out. There's a lot of really good truck products coming that are going to bring full price. If not over, full sticker for those when they are beginning to show up in dealers' lots.
所以我不确定丰田在经销商利润方面已经达到巅峰。丰田即将推出新款Tacoma、新款Forerunner和新款Landcraiser。这些都是非常好的卡车产品，将以全价销售。当它们开始出现在经销商的库存中时，很可能会以原价甚至高于原价销售。
What is the right multiple to use? What is the right formula for an auto dealership today? I'm going to give it all depends response. It really depends on the franchise.
使用哪个正确的倍数？今天的汽车经销商使用哪个正确的公式？我将给出一个全部取决于的回答。这实际上取决于特许经营权的情况。
For Solanus dealers, they could probably project the next 12 months or give back the last 12 months. But we've totally lost the COVID bump for Solanus dealers.
对于索拉努斯的经销商来说，他们可能能够预测接下来的12个月的情况，或回顾过去的12个月。但我们已经完全失去了COVID-19给索拉努斯经销商带来的增长。
For Toyota dealers, we're still on the COVID bump. And I think we're going to be in it for at least another 6, 8, 10, 12 months, especially if these new products hit and are as successful as they seem like they will be.
对于丰田经销商来说，我们仍然在COVID疫情的冲击中。我认为我们至少还会在这种情况下持续6、8、10、12个月，尤其是如果这些新产品发布并且像它们看起来那样成功的话。
So you think Toyota's is it that inventory won't rebound to equilibrium and should consumers still expect just high demand markups and whatnot for Toyota product?
你认为丰田的库存能否恢复到平衡，并且消费者是否仍然应该对丰田产品预期高需求的价格上涨等情况？
I think so. I mean, they have products that are very affordable. You could go get a Camry today. I think they're available on many dealership lots for maybe $30,000, $20,000, $30,000.
我这么认为。我的意思是，他们有一些非常实惠的产品。你今天就可以去买一辆卡罗拉。我认为你可以在许多经销商那里找到它们，价格可能在30000美元、20000美元或者30000美元左右。
Camry is as a, to me, that is all you need in the vehicle. It's large, it's comfortable, it's fast, got a lot of technology, excellent reliability, excellent resale value for $30,000. That's a great value. And it supports the Toyota dealers. They may not make a lot of money on that Camry, but that car is going to come back for service for next 50,000 miles. That dealer is going to be able to service it.
对我来说，卡罗拉（Camry）就是你在一辆车中所需要的全部。它宽敞舒适，速度快，拥有众多的科技配置，可靠性卓越，三万美元的售后价值也非常出色。这是一笔很好的价值。而且，它支持丰田经销商。虽然经销商在销售卡罗拉上可能赚不到很多钱，但这辆车在接下来的5万英里里将会需要回去维修保养。而经销商正好能够为它提供服务。
The new ever is buying the Camry may come and trade in a four or five year old Corolla, perhaps, and that's going to make a great use vehicle for that dealer. So it's just a, I mean, the Toyota business model is one that I'm sure many other OEMs look at and I would hope they try to simulate it because the consumer is happy, right? They get a great product at a great price with great visual value. So that overall is a positive experience, very good financing available. The dealers are really happy. They feel like Toyota really is their business partner and supporting them and success their business. And I think Toyota had record profits last year. So it's just a win, win, win right now in the Toyota. And I say, Toyota, I shouldn't flex this and that as well.
购买新卡罗拉（Camry）的人可能会将四到五年前的卡罗拉（Corolla）进行置换，这对经销商来说是一笔很好的交易。因此，我认为丰田的商业模式是其他许多原始设备制造商都会关注并希望模仿的，因为消费者是满意的，对吧？他们以很好的价格和极高的视觉价值获得了一个优质的产品。总的来说，这是一个积极的体验，提供了非常好的融资选择。经销商非常满意，他们觉得丰田真的是他们的商业伙伴，支持他们的成功。我认为去年丰田实现了创纪录的利润。所以，现在的丰田可以说是赢、赢、赢。我应该为丰田骄傲，并感谢他们。
Look, when you say brands are doing well, the first thing that comes to my mind is profits are high, right? And dealers are chasing that brand and likely dealers assume that that brand will continue doing well because the product is desirable. That's kind of the full circle in my head. And so knowing that what other brands are dealers kind of flocking towards and what does that tell you about the product? I think Honda has also been in a situation of under supply. So the products that they are making available to the dealers are selling very quickly for strong margins. BMW, we're representing a number of BMW dealers now and they're margins have stayed very high. The fixed operations are excellent. I've been trying to buy a BMW. They're not in stock, you know, at least the ones that I'm looking for.
嘿，当你说品牌表现好时，我脑海中首先想到的是利润高，对吧？经销商会追逐那个品牌，很可能他们认为那个品牌会继续表现良好，因为产品是受人喜欢的。这在我脑海中形成了一个循环。所以，知道其他经销商都倾向于哪些品牌，这能告诉你产品的什么信息呢？我认为本田也曾面临供应不足的情况。因此，他们向经销商提供的产品以很高的利润快速销售。我们现在代表一些宝马经销商，他们的利润率一直很高。售后服务也非常出色。我一直在努力购买一辆宝马。你知道的，至少我想要的型号没有现货。
I'm smiling because you said the fixed operations are excellent for BMW. So I'll leave it at that. The parts and service, this is for dealers. And that can mean two things. It can mean the vehicles break or it could just mean that people drive them a lot and want them to be well maintained. I would say in terms of vehicles that break, you could put maybe Land Rover in that net bucket. Land Rover is another franchise that we're representing right now and we're seeing X-LUT profits in that brand. And that from a consumer standpoint, you know, is a little bit, maybe they don't love it because this client we have, their average front end gross is $15,000. They're making an average of $15,000. That doesn't include finance and insurance profits. That's just the spread between what they cost by the vehicle, what they're selling for. That's about as high as McLean. On a Land Rover? Yeah, that's about as high as we've seen with anything except for maybe Bentley, Rolls, Ferrari type brands. And you're saying that that is the average per unit profit that you're seeing right now? At that dealership. Yep.
我在微笑，因为你说BMW的固定运营非常优秀。所以我就这样吧。部件和维修服务，这是给经销商的。这可能有两种含义。一种是汽车容易出故障，另一种是人们经常使用汽车并希望保养得很好。如果要说哪种汽车容易出故障，可能是陆虎。陆虎是另一个我们现在代理的品牌，我们在该品牌上看到了超高的利润。从消费者的角度来看，你知道，可能他们不喜欢，因为我们的客户，他们的平均毛利润是15,000美元。他们平均赚15,000美元。这还不包括金融和保险利润。这只是他们在汽车成本和销售价之间的差额。这差不多是麦克林（汽车品牌）的水平。对于一辆陆虎车来说，是的，这大概是我们看到的除了宾利、劳斯莱斯、法拉利等品牌以外的任何品牌所能获得的最高利润了。你说这是你目前看到的每辆车的平均利润吗？在那家经销商是的。
Because there's just so much demand for that product. I mean, the design of the new full size Land Rover and the Sport and Defender, those three products are at hot. So much really want to buy those products. But they do have a reputation for breaking. So not only is a dealer making good money selling those vehicles, but they come back to the service arm and for various items.
因为那个产品的需求非常大。我的意思是，新款Land Rover全尺寸车型、Sport和Defender的设计都非常抢手。许多人都非常想购买这些产品。但它们在质量上的声誉并不好，容易出问题。因此，不仅经销商能够通过销售这些车辆赚到不少钱，而且这些车还会因为各种问题回到售后服务中心。
Did you see the news from out of the UK about Land Rover, the thefts? Do you see that? No. So yeah, I mean, there's apparently a big, big issue in the UK with just thefts of Land Rovers. And what's happening is insurance costs are like rising astronomically. And the values are taking a massive hit because of it. And so I first heard about this like three months ago, I got one of a follower DM'd me from the UK say, Hey, listen, I just want you to know, I have a Land Rover here. And like, I can't get this thing in the shirt. It's absolutely crazy. And then this morning, I see Bloomberg put out an entire article about it. And I'm like, Oh my God, wow, this is like coming full circle. Wow, I heard that about Andre Kia that it's easy to somehow replicate the key. You can somehow, these can listen when someone's using their key and copy the code somehow. But I've not heard that about Land Rover. So that's that's too bad. I hope we don't fix that.
你有没有看到关于路虎在英国的新闻，有关盗窃的那些？你看到了吗？没有。嗯，我是说，显然在英国有一个非常严重的问题，就是路虎的盗窃案。由此导致保险费飙升，价值也因此受到了巨大的打击。大约三个月前，我第一次听说这个问题，一个来自英国的关注者通过私信告诉我说：“嘿，听着，我这里有一辆路虎，但我无法保护好它，这真的太疯狂了。”然后，今天早上，我看到彭博社发布了一整篇关于这个问题的文章，我就惊呆了，哇，事情反复出现在眼前了。我曾听说过安德烈·基亚（汽车制造商）的钥匙很容易被复制，你可以一些方法监听别人使用钥匙的过程并复制出代码。但我还没有听说过关于路虎的这种情况。这太糟糕了，希望我们能解决这个问题。
Yeah, I think hunting, you have mostly put remedies for that in the US mostly, but for yeah, for Land Rover in the UK, just something, something to benchmark because, you know, I'd be curious to know if that could, you know, spill into the US or if that's very much, you know, confined to the UK for whatever reason, it might be some technological differences. I don't know. I mean, it's it's a measure of demand, I guess, that there's still a lot of Land Rovers. It means there's a market for Law Ram. Maybe they see the parts.
是的，我认为在美国，你主要解决的是狩猎问题，但对于英国的路虎来说，只是一些参考，因为你知道的，我很好奇是否能够扩展到美国，或者它是否非常局限于英国，可能是一些技术差异。我不知道。我猜这是一种需求的衡量，它意味着还有很多路虎车辆，这意味着有一个法律拉姆的市场。也许他们看到了这些零部件的需求。
Yeah, definitely in the UK. So tell us about like the least interesting brands right now. I think, you know, what are dealers sort of flocking away from or where you see the biggest declines in value? I think that there's some increased concern about some of the domestic brands, you know, the strike, effectively raised the labor costs. I think it was for maybe estimated, it was another 800, 900 hours in cost per vehicle.
是的，在英国肯定是这样。所以告诉我们现在最不吸引人的品牌。我认为，你知道的，经销商们正在远离的是哪些品牌，或者你认为价值最大幅度下降的是哪些品牌？我认为人们对一些国内品牌有了更多的担忧，你知道的，罢工实际上提高了劳动成本。据估计，对每辆车来说，这可能增加了800到900小时的成本。
General Motors seem to have a different outlook that they share. They thought they could reduce that additional labor by value engineering or something. I'm not sure how they're going to just get away from it. So I think that there is some a little bit concern that the domestic three will be at a greater cost as advantage compared to the other brands that are now making cars in America, Kia, Hyundai, Toyota, Subaru, Honda, I mean, all those, they're all competitors, right?
通用汽车似乎持有不同的看法，并且他们互相分享。他们认为通过价值工程或其他方式可以减少额外的劳动力。我不确定他们怎么能够完全避免它。因此，我认为国内三家汽车制造商将相对于其他在美国生产汽车的品牌，如Kia、Hyundai、Toyota、Subaru、Honda等，面临更高的成本优势。这些都是竞争对手，对吗？
So I've heard some people concerned about the domestic. I think Stellanus, I mentioned, you know, it's very unfortunate what's happened there. They had such a great run going. Yours were making a lot of good money. And I have a good friend, who happened to advise him on the sale of his business last earlier this year, January. He owned the Chrysler store, the Solanus store in Charlotte, Lake Norma.
我听到一些人对国内情况表示担忧。我认为我提到的斯特拉努斯（Stellanus），你知道，那里发生的事情非常不幸。他们一直经营得非常好。你还赚了很多钱。我有一个好朋友，恰好在今年早些时候的一月份为他的企业出售提供了咨询。他拥有夏克勒商店和太阳店在夏洛特市的诺玛湖地区。
And he just said that Stellanus increased its wholesale prices, the prices they charge for the products and the dealers more than any other OEM raised it. And that then raises the price to the consumer. And now Stellanus is dropping the two lowest price vehicles out of the Jeep lineup. So Stellanus dealers are saying, like, I don't have cheap cars to sell anymore. And you need that kind of starter vehicle, someone buys a Jeep Compass Patriot or something. And they get that Jeep experience, and they want to come back and get a Wrangler or a Rancherky or a Grand Wagon year. But like I mentioned, and if you go to a Toyota dealership, you can get a camera, you can get a Corolla, I mean, those vehicles are excellent value for $30,000 for less.
他只是说Stellanus增加了其批发价格，这是他们向产品和经销商收费的价格，比其他任何原始设备制造商涨得更多。由此会导致消费者价格上涨。而现在，Stellanus将Jeep系列中的两款最低价格车型取消了。所以Stellanus的经销商们都表示，我再也没有便宜的车能卖了。而你需要这种入门级的车型，当有人购买Jeep Compass Patriot或其他车型时，他们就能体验到Jeep的特点，并且他们会想回来购买Wrangler、Rancherky或Grand Wagon Year等车型。但正如我提到的，如果你去丰田经销商那里，你可以买到一台相机，可以购买Corolla，我的意思是，这些车型以30,000美元或更低的价格提供了极高的价值。
You go to a Solanus store, I'm not sure how many vehicles are sitting on a lot for $30,000 for us. Especially now where interest rates are high, it's putting pressure on those dealers to compensate by trying to sell more used cars. They have a hard time selling new, so they try to spend towards selling more used. And that, Mike Jackson, the former CEO from Modern Nation, had a phrase that's, I think, is powerful, which is, there's a battle for talent and capital at R retail. What do you mean by that?
你去了一家索拉纳斯商店，我不确定有多少辆车是以3万美元的价格摆在一旁等待我们。尤其是现在利率较高，给那些经销商带来了压力，他们试图通过销售更多的二手车来补偿。他们很难销售新车，所以他们试图朝向销售更多二手车的方向努力。此外，来自现代国家的前首席执行官麦克·杰克逊有一句我认为有力的话，即在零售业存在着人才和资本的激烈竞争。你对此是什么意思？
So if I am a general manager or a salesperson or a technician, and I'm working at a Solanus store, and I see my business coming down, I see fewer customers able to afford my product, I get concerned. And so if I'm a technician or a salesperson or a manager, and I'm looking across the street at the Toyota store, or the Honda store, or the Hyundai or the Kia store, and I see their customer parking spaces are full and mine are empty, I say to myself, maybe I should walk across the street and see if there's an opportunity for me. So that's the battle for talent, right? Because they can get out of their chair and go right across the street and maybe make more money that same week.
所以，假设我是一个总经理、销售人员或技术员，我在一个Solanus商店工作，而且我发现我的生意下滑，越来越少的顾客能够负担得起我的产品，我会感到担忧。因此，如果我是一个技术员、销售人员或经理，我看到对面的丰田店、本田店、现代店或起亚店的顾客停车位都被占满，而我的却是空着的，我会对自己说，也许我应该过去看看有没有机会。这就是人才争夺战，对吧？因为他们可以站起来过马路，也许在同一周就可以赚更多的钱。
The battle for capital is, if I'm a dealership group owner, I have four, six, eight, ten stores, I'm going to invest in the dealerships that are making me the most money. I'm going to invest in facilities, I'm going to invest in technologies, I'm going to invest in training, I'm going to invest in marketing, I'm going to invest in inventory, because that's giving me a good return on my investment. So my dollars start to shift towards the brands that are performing well for me, and away from the brands that aren't.
资本之战，如果我是一家经销商集团的老板，拥有四个、六个、八个或十个门店，我会投资于给我带来最多利润的经销商店铺。我会投资于设施、技术、培训和市场营销，我会投资于库存，因为这些投资给我带来了良好的回报。因此，我的资金开始转向那些为我表现出色的品牌，而远离那些表现不佳的品牌。
So for Stellanus dealership network, if the talent moves out of that building, out of those buildings somewhere else, if dealers are no longer investing in advertising in inventory or anything else, it's hard to get that capital to float back. So that's the unfortunate phrase or the effect of that phrase that Mike Jackson has, and something that I really hope that the OEMs pay attention to, because if you don't treat your dealer as well, they react, and they move to where they're treated better, just like a consumer would. I'm going to just take up my attention, my time, my money, and I'm going to go to different address and a bus is there.
对于斯特拉努斯经销商网络来说，如果人才离开那些建筑物，移到其他地方，如果经销商不再投资于广告、库存或其他任何方面，就很难将资金再次流动起来。这就是那个短语的不幸影响，或者说迈克·杰克逊所描述的影响，我真心希望原始设备制造商们能够注意到这一点，因为如果你不好好对待经销商，他们会做出反应，会去被更好地对待的地方，就像消费者一样。我会把我的注意力、时间和金钱放在别的地方，去不同的地方，乘坐一辆公交车。
Yeah, it makes sense. It's like a downward spiral, can only. And I've definitely had some messages from people in the industry, just they've asked, they work at Stellanus store specifically, and you can see they're poking their nose, asking some questions. So what you're saying, it's pretty close to home, but it's also not surprising.
是的，这很有道理。就像一个向下的螺旋，只能这样。我肯定得到了一些行业内人士的信息，他们只是问了一些问题，他们在斯特拉努斯商店工作，你可以看到他们在打听一些事情。所以你说的话，非常贴切，也不令人惊讶。
Yeah, and it's a little bit tough there too, Carl, you know, Carl, you know, because some of the products they're making design-wise are great. When they're really nice, you know, and they're trying to, I guess, evolve their brand and take enough of market. But I feel like maybe they've gone up market faster than their traditional customers are ready. And I'm not sure they're requesting a lot of customers or Alexa's buyers or Mercedes buyers at this point.
是的，而且卡尔，你知道，卡尔，你知道，那里也有点困难，因为他们一些设计方面的产品真的很棒。当它们真的很好的时候，你知道，他们试图改进他们的品牌并占领足够的市场份额。但我感觉他们也许比他们传统的客户预期得更快地进入高端市场。而且我不确定他们此时正在吸引很多亚马逊Alexa或梅赛德斯的买家。
Yeah, I posted a chart that showed different car manufacturers and how much they've raised MSRP on average since 2019, and Stellanus topped that chart at about 50%. So is that the highest of the brands that you call? Yeah. Yeah, so the brands. That's Jack Saltzman, my former client who talked about that.
是的，我发布了一张图表，显示了不同汽车制造商自2019年以来平均提高的建议零售价（MSRP），而Stellanus在该图表中名列前茅，提高了约50%。那是你称呼的品牌中的最高吗？是的。是的，所以这些品牌，那是我以前的客户杰克·索尔兹曼（Jack Saltzman）谈论的。
So that's hard. Meanwhile, you've had other brands like Hyundai and Kia that have brought out fantastic products that tell you ride, Palisade, they were bringing $10,000 over sticker. Now, Hyundai and Kia could have just raised the sticker by that, or the wholesale price of the dealer by $10,000 to capture all that for themselves, but they didn't. They wanted to keep their products affordable for consumers, and they've got a whole new type of customer base in those stores now that the viewers tell me compared to pre-pandemic. With the credit quality has gone up, they're also bringing the vehicles back to the service department for me. That's pairs. Those are the same people who buy vehicles from Honda. So they couldn't get the vehicles they wanted. Kia Hyundai provided a really desirable or attractive alternatives, and now there's another Hyundai Kia drivers. Which is pretty ingenious if you think about it. It was the ultimate opportunity for car manufacturer over the last three years, when brand loyalty has been at all-time lows because of the supply issue to just capitalize on that market.
所以这很困难。与此同时，像现代和起亚这样的其他品牌推出了令人惊艳的产品，如Palisade，他们会在标价上额外收取1万美元。现代和起亚完全可以把标价提高1万美元，或者把经销商的批发价提高1万美元，以便自己获得全部利润，但他们没有这样做。他们希望让产品对消费者来说可负担得起，并且现在在这些门店里有了一个全新类型的客户群，观众告诉我与疫情前相比。随着信用质量的提高，他们也开始将车辆送回维修部门。这些是一对。这些人也是购买本田车的人。所以他们无法获得他们想要的车辆。现代和起亚提供了非常理想或有吸引力的替代方案，现在又有了其他现代和起亚车型的车主。如果你思考一下，这相当聪明。在过去的三年里，由于供应问题，品牌忠诚度一直处于历史最低水平，这对汽车制造商来说是最终机会。
And look, Hyundai and Kia have raised their prices also pretty substantial amount, but, and this is a big but, their day supply has remained low. Which just means that the demand is still there. They're at equilibrium unlike the jeeps of the world or Christ-star or whatnot where their day supply keeps climbing at these higher prices.
看，现在现代和起亚也大幅提高了他们的价格，但是有一个很大的例外，在这种情况下，他们的库存仍然很低。这就意味着需求仍然存在。与全球吉普车或克莱斯勒公司等等那些库存持续上升的情况不同，他们已经达到了均衡。
Well, I would also say that the vehicle quality and size at Hyundai Kia has evolved because of the policy and the tell-your-ride. They didn't have those products before the pandemic hit really. And so that's one reason why the transaction values have gone up. I mean, back to those brands.
恩，我也可以说，由于政策和乘车分享计划，现代起亚汽车的质量和大小得以改进。在疫情爆发之前，他们并没有这些产品。这也是交易价值提高的一个原因。我的意思是，回到那些品牌。
I remember hearing a story from a friend of mine who owns exotic dealerships, and he was attending the concourse Dela Gont, that at Pebble Beach, which is the world's pre-eminent, classic car show auction extravaganza weekend, out in Carmel, California. And he was walking through the logic Pebble Beach, you know, the famous golf club there where they have the Pebble Beach and somebody called out his name, he turned around, he went over to this table and there were four or five guys sitting on this table. And he says, gosh, I haven't seen you guys forever. And these people who was talking to, they were the designers that used to work at Bentley, Rolls, Aston, et cetera. He knew from when he was, because he was a done deal, I would see these guys all the time. He said, I haven't seen you guys for years, where have you been? And they responded, we've been in Korea. We've been designing products for the Hyundai Kia group. And that to me explains how Hyundai Kia evolved so much. I mean, you look at a Genesis now, the styling, the stitching and the seats, the switch gear, the technology, it's beautiful. It's the same as you get an premium, almost exotic level vehicle. And so for the average customer who can show up and purchase a Genesis or tell your ride, and they're getting some of that styling that only European exotic retail is just able to offer. So that's incredible transformation that comes from design.
我记得我听过一个朋友的故事，他拥有一家销售名贵汽车的经销店。他在加州卡梅尔的蒲波比彻底推托，这是世界上最重要的经典汽车展览和拍卖盛会的周末。当时他走过蒲波比彻底，你知道那里著名的高尔夫俱乐部，他听到有人呼唤他的名字，他转过身去，走向那张桌子，桌子上坐着四五个人。他说，天哪，我好久没见你们了。而这些人正是曾经在宾利、劳斯莱斯、阿斯顿等公司工作过的设计师。因为他是个行家，所以以前常常见到这些人。他说，我好几年没见你们了，你们去哪里了？他们回答说，我们去了韩国。我们一直在为现代起亚集团设计产品。对我来说，这解释了现代起亚为什么会有这么大的变化。你看看现在的起亚Genesis，外观设计、缝线和座椅、开关设备、技术，都非常漂亮。它与豪华品牌的车型几乎媲美，甚至有些超越。因此，对于普通消费者来说，他们可以购买一辆现代起亚Genesis或泰瑞德，并享受到只有欧洲奢侈品牌才能提供的一些设计风格。这是设计带来的令人难以置信的转变。
In addition to the engineering of the vehicles, most reliable or long term reliability, I think Hungary got the longest warranty in the business.
除了车辆的工程设计以外，就可靠性和长期可靠性而言，我认为匈牙利在行业中拥有最长的保修期。
It's funny you mention that because I have a friend, he's a doctor. And he makes probably like around 300, 400,000 dollars a year. And he was asking me about cars and asking, you know, he wasn't asking me what to buy. He was just asking me general questions.
很有趣你提到这个，因为我有个朋友，他是一名医生。他大概每年挣30到40万美元。他问我关于汽车的事情，他并不是在问我应该买什么车，只是在随便问一些一般性的问题。
I asked him, what do you currently drive? And he told me he tried to tell you ride. And I just found that, you know, I've said this story before, but I always think about that because when I was starting in the business, Hyundai, that was like the back down car, right? Or I remember the old Sonata's with that body style. I mean, that was the vehicle that you save for the customer that maybe, you know, couldn't get approved on anything else. And you need it.
我问他，你目前开的是什么车？他告诉我他试图告诉你他骑的是什么车。我刚发现，你知道吗，我以前说过这个故事，但我总是会想起来，因为在我刚开始做生意的时候，现代汽车就像是那辆性能平平的车，对吧？我还记得以前的索纳塔车型，那个车身样式。我的意思是，那辆车是为那些可能无法在其他地方获得批准的顾客保留的车辆，你需要它。
And it's funny. Now, I speak with him. I'm like, wow, like, so you drive a tell your ride. They've definitely moved up market. And you know, they've done it with great products, great body style prices have moved up, you know, somewhat as well. But overall, they've definitely executed very well. And I think that explains why, you know, there's desirability by dealers to acquire these franchises.
而且挺有趣的。现在，我与他交谈。我就像“哇”，就像“所以你开的是脱骑车”。他们肯定升级了范畴。你也知道，他们用出色的产品，时尚的外观和相应的价格升级了。但总的来说，他们的表现确实非常出色。我认为这解释了为什么经销商渴望收购这些特许经销权。
Yes, I think that it was there. Those were brands that you kind of avoided. They weren't very profitable. You know, we got some data from a reliable source years ago that showed profits per dealership location by franchise. And the most profitable brands were Lexus, BMW, Mercedes, Land Rover, Toyota, Honda, the least profitable brands were some of the Korean brands. I think that's totally transformed now.
是的，我认为确实是这样的。这些品牌是你比较避开的。它们并不是很赚钱。你知道的，在多年前我们从一个可靠的数据来源得到了一些数据，显示各个特许经销店地点的盈利情况。最赚钱的品牌是雷克萨斯、宝马、奔驰、路虎、丰田和本田，而最不赚钱的品牌则是一些韩国品牌。我认为现在这种情况完全改变了。
And I'm happy for the dealers who had these franchises for a long time, weren't really worth their time or money. And now are being rewarded. And of course, the catch is now they've got to invest a lot of money in these facilities to make it bigger and nicer. So there's there's a little bit of a fly anyway.
我很为那些长时间经营这些特许经销商的人感到高兴，他们之前投入的时间和金钱并不真的值得。现在他们得到了回报。当然，问题是现在他们不得不投资大量资金来扩建和美化这些设施。所以总体来说，有点不太完美。
I want to dig deeper into the M&A market right now, right? So first of all, buyers, sellers, what's easier for you to find right now? There are always far more buyers than there are sellers. And that stayed pretty consistent? Yes.
我想现在要进一步深入了解并购市场，对吗？那么首先，对于你们买方和卖方来说，现在什么更容易找到？买方总是比卖方多得多。这种情况一直保持得相当稳定吗？是的。
There was a big spike of viewership sales in 2021 and 2022 that was driven partly for tax reasons, partly for economic reasons, partly for out of fear. And then I'll talk about those separately.
2021年和2022年的观众销售出现了一次大幅增长，部分原因是出于税务原因，部分原因是经济原因，部分原因是出于恐惧。然后我将分别谈论这些原因。
But when the pandemic hit, I mentioned the dealership values kind of tanked initially because people were afraid to buy a store. And so M&A just dried up for about three months. And then it took off again.
但是当疫情出现时，我提到经销商的价值一度大幅下跌，因为人们害怕购买商店。所以，大约持续了三个月的并购交易完全停滞了。然后又重新起步了。
And buyers were really confident because they could see every month how much more money they were making in their stores. And it's all, this is great. I want more. So I'm going to take the cash that I've made. And when I'm making now and invested in buying more dealerships and the public companies were driving a good portion of that M&A.
买家们非常有信心，因为他们每个月都能清楚地看到他们的店铺赚了更多的钱。这太棒了，他们想要更多。所以他们把赚到的现金和现在的收益投资于购买更多的经销商，而公共公司则推动了这一并购的很大一部分。
They bought before the pandemic hit, there were probably 300, 350 stores a year that we could tell that we're trading hands in this country. And then in 2021, that number went to 700 stores. So the number of rooftops doubled for sale. That's dropped down now to, I think, this year might be around 500. So we're still, you know, what's that roughly 50% higher the volume.
疫情爆发之前，每年可能有大约300、350家店铺在这个国家更换所有权。然后在2021年，这个数字增加到了700家店铺。因此，店铺的数量翻了一番。现在这个数字降至大约500家，我认为今年可能会是这个数字。所以，交易量仍然比之前高出约50%。
But, but I think sellers have said, well, some sellers that I'm not really ready to retire yet, but because the goodwill value has doubled or more than doubled, I can retire today and have the same amount of money as if I were to send you work three years. So it pulled forward some people who might not be ready to sell, they just said, well, the prices are so high, I'm just going to take advantage of more conditions, get out.
但是，我认为卖家们中有些人表示，虽然我真的还没有准备好退休，但是因为商誉价值翻了一番甚至更多，我现在可以退休了，拥有与我继续工作三年所得到的同样金额。所以这吸引了一些本来还没有准备好卖出的人，他们觉得价格如此之高，所以利用更好的条件抓住这个机会，离开。
I think there's also, you know, technology created some more confidence in the part of buyers. And what I mean by that is, when I got started in 1996 in this industry, I wrote a business plan for AutoNation. The business plan was all about national brands, economies of scale, best practices, and AutoNation would do in the car business what Blockbuster had done in the video business, you know, which is going to take over the market.
我认为，你知道的，科技也增加了买家的信心。我指的是，我在1996年开始进入这个行业时，为AutoNation写了一份商业计划。这个商业计划完全关注国家品牌、规模经济、最佳实践，AutoNation在汽车业务上会像Blockbuster在视频业务上做的那样，也就是占领市场。
And we quickly found that none of what I had written in my business plan and predicted came true. You know, we didn't have any real economies of scale. We didn't have any better business practices. We didn't have brands that consume, since we were scared more about than other brands. We really just had a ton of capital that we used to quickly grow.
我们很快发现，我在商业计划中写的和预测的都没有实现。你知道的，我们没有任何真正的规模经济。我们没有任何更好的商业实践。我们没有像其他品牌那样消耗品牌，因为我们更担心其他品牌。实际上，我们只是有大量资金用来快速扩张。
And then, you know, over 20, 30 years, AutoNation tried to then develop some some special abilities that would help it outperform a mom and pop operator. But when the pandemic hit, e-commerce spiked, right? Because people are saying like, I'm not going to a dealership, I'm afraid to go in there. So I'll just see if I can buy a car online.
然后，你知道的，20、30年过去了，AutoNation尝试开发一些特殊的能力，以便能够超越一家小型独立经营者。但是当疫情来袭时，电子商务迅速增长，对吧？因为人们都说，我不去汽车经销商那里，我害怕进去。所以我就看看能否在线购买一辆车。
And so now, now, larger dealers believe they have a greater capability to serve consumers that are interested in purchasing online. They have bigger inventories. They can ship cars, you know, across these, they can share even stores across different stores. They may have a brand like AutoNation as a national brand. Lithia is investing in driveway.com. So I have feeling one day Lithia becomes driveway with that company, maybe. Which, by the way, it's interesting because I just had the podcast with Darryl Cunningham to see a group on that, you know, you connected me with Darryl, which I'm very thankful for. It was a great conversation. But he has completely taken the other direction. He is all about staying local, you know, car dealership is a local business. I am not going with one centralized, you know, national brand. So just, you know, interesting dichotomy. And he really, you know, we dug into it and kind of, you know, he explained his thinking there.
现在，大型经销商相信他们有更大的能力为对在线购买感兴趣的消费者提供服务。他们有更大的库存。他们可以跨店铺发货，甚至可以在不同店铺之间共享。他们可能拥有像AutoNation这样的全国品牌。Lithia正在投资driveway.com。所以我有一天，Lithia可能会成为那家公司的"driveway"。顺便说一下，这很有趣，因为我刚刚和Darryl Cunningham做了一期播客，他对此非常感兴趣，你给我介绍了他，对此我非常感激。那是一次很棒的对话。但他完全走向了另一个方向。他追求本地化，他认为汽车经销商是一个本地业务。他不选择一个集中的全国品牌。所以这是一个有趣的对立。他真的很深入地解释了他的想法。
So, so that is still out for the jury. I mean, we'll see what happens in the marketplace because what I learned is that, oh, business plus I wrote economies scale, national brands best business. It was all, it was all just what should have happened because it happened in other industries. But it didn't happen in our business because of the franchise nature of our industry and the fact that there are almost no economies of scale. You know, you buy the same product from the supplier at the same price. Right. So if I've got 54 stores, I've been the same price for 150s on the new side, on the new side. All they use, it's true too. You know, you're going to buy that vehicle at the market value because the customer can flip it to somebody else for 100 hours more, they will. Labor is the same. Real estate is the same. Utilities, you know, pretty much the same. If you look at all the major cost blocks, the public companies don't really have much of a win advantage or even large consolidators. But I think technology is an area where larger dealers do believe they're going to start to have over time some advantages or smaller dealers.
所以，对于陪审团来说，这仍然是一个未定之事。我的意思是，我们将会看到市场上的情况会如何发展，因为我所了解的是，在商业领域，经济规模、国内品牌是最好的生意。这一切都是因为在其他行业中都发生了这样的情况，而在我们的行业中却没有发生，因为我们行业是特许经营的，并且几乎没有经济规模效益。你知道，你以同样的价格从供应商那里购买相同的产品。没错。所以如果我有54家店铺，在新产品方面，我可能也需要支付和150家店铺一样的价格。他们也是这样做的。你知道，你购买的车辆的价格是市场价，因为顾客可以将其转手卖给其他人获得更高价格，他们会这样做的。劳动力成本也一样。房地产也一样。公共设施，基本上都是一样。如果你看看所有主要的成本方面，上市公司实际上并没有太多的优势，甚至大型整合商也是如此。但我认为科技领域是大型经销商与小规模经销商相信他们将会渐渐具备优势的一个领域。
So for instance, and this does have to be just public companies, if I have a dealership group with 10 stores in a market, I've got a brand name and I could promote my website as a place where people can go and shop for vehicles and I have Honda Toyota for Chevy, Kia Hyundai Mercedes, whatever. I have a broad selection of products that I can offer to my customers. In between those 60-10 stores, I've got thousands of new used vehicles in inventory. There's a good chance that if I attract somebody to my site, I can sell them a vehicle, either just invite them to come and look at it in the dealership or if you want to go through online purchase, you can do that. And I would say people my age today, they still go to the dealerships, they might look online but still want to go to the store. People my kids age and I've got kids in 20s, they might be very comfortable clicking some buttons and buying a car from Carvana site on C or from modern nation site on C. And I think the population is growing in that section that is interested in in transacting online. Today is still small, maybe 5%. But in five years and 10 years, going to be 7, 8, 10%. I think it can. And just taking a little bit of market share every year can have a big impact on a dealer's bottom line and vice versa. Giving up a little bit of market share every year. And you start to get into that, well, and I'm not selling many cars these two. So I got to have fewer sales people. I'm going to advertise a little less. I'm going to have fewer units in inventory. You start to kind of slowly imperceptively get weaker and the other guy across towns taking that share slowly, slowly getting stronger. It may be a trend that is over time, a little hard to overcome if you're just sitting in one store.
例如，这并不限于只有上市公司。如果我在市场上有一个拥有10家门店的经销商集团，我拥有一个品牌名称，我可以将我的网站宣传为一个可以供人们选购车辆的地方，同时我还有本田、丰田、雪佛兰、起亚、现代和奔驰等多种选择的产品，我可以向我的客户提供广泛的产品选择。在这60-10家门店之间，我有成千上万辆新车和二手车。如果我吸引到某人浏览我的网站，很有可能我就能向他们卖车，无论是只是邀请他们来经销商门店查看车辆，还是进行在线购买，都可以。我想今天的人们，尽管他们可能会在网上看一下，但他们仍然会去经销商门店。而我孩子们的年龄段，他们可能更愿意轻松点击几下按钮，从Carvana或CarMax等网站上购买汽车。我认为对于在线交易感兴趣的人口正在增加。尽管今天的比例还很小，也许只有5%。但在五年或十年后，这个比例可能会增加到7%、8%或10%。我认为是可能的。每年稍微抢占一点市场份额可能会对经销商的底线产生重大影响，反之亦然。每年稍微放弃一点市场份额，你开始发现，呃，这两年我卖的车不多了。所以我要减少销售人员。我要少做一点广告。我要减少库存量。你开始慢慢地感觉到自己变得弱势，而对方在城市另一边慢慢地变得强势。如果你只是坐在一个门店里，这可能是一个难以克服的趋势。
Where do you think the economies of scale are operating leverages driven for groups that grow and are making acquisitions? What's driving that? Is it technology or is it other stuff as well? I think there's technology. But you know, at the end of the day, it's you're training people and deploying the technology. And there's some really good vendors out there, Cox, Reynolds, CDK, cars.com that can offer technology to large groups and make that same technology available to to a single store dealer. So you're not I'm in no way ever going to bet against some person sitting in a store that's the general manager or owner that's store because if they're a talented entrepreneur and they get out there every day after it, they're going to do just fine.
你认为在增长并进行收购的集团中，规模经济是通过何种杠杆机制实现的？是技术推动还是其他因素？我认为技术是其中之一。但说到底，你需要培训人员并应用技术。目前有一些非常好的供应商，如Cox、Reynolds、CDK和cars.com，他们可以为大型集团提供技术，并将同样的技术提供给单店经销商。因此，我绝对不会对那些作为店铺的总经理或所有者的人抱有任何怀疑，因为如果他们是富有天赋的企业家，并且每天都全力以赴，他们一定会取得好的成绩。
And that may be what what Darryl's talking about. You know, Darryl Kenningham, where he says that the low old guys can still succeed and that's been proven for decades. It's true. But but I think that if you have a way to attract eyeballs to your website and you've got 10 stores in an area, I don't think you have to pay the same price per impression to get concerned with your website as if I had one store. So if I'm if I'm paying a little bit less than advertising to sell a car, that makes my the rest of my store more efficient. Right. My salespeople are making more money because they're getting more more customers. That means I get the best salespeople. If I get the best salespeople, I'll have the happiest customers and I'll have the highest throughput. So again, that balance for talent and capital.
这可能就是达里尔所说的。你知道，达里尔·肯宁汉姆，他说老一辈的人仍然可以成功，这已经被证明了几十年了。这是真的。但是我认为，如果你有一种吸引人们关注你的网站的方法，而且在一个地区有10家店铺，那么你不必像我只有一家店铺那样支付相同的印象费用来关注你的网站。所以，如果我为了卖一辆汽车而支付比广告费用少一点，那就使得我店铺的其他部分更高效。对吧，我的销售人员因为有更多的客户而赚更多的钱。这意味着我能招到最好的销售人员。如果我招到了最好的销售人员，我就会拥有最快的出货量。所以，这又涉及到人才和资本的平衡。
I think there's also, you know, on the technology side, I know AutoNation pays less for its tech stack. You know, the products it uses in its stores and a single dealer would. I know they pay less for insurance than a single dealer would, their self-assure in many cases. So these little areas and again, they're small. We pay a little bit less for technology, a little bit less than advertising, a little bit less for a sure business, baby. Yeah. Yeah.
我觉得在技术方面，我知道AutoNation在技术堆栈方面支付的费用较低。你知道的，在商店里使用的产品和一个单一的经销商相比，他们支付的费用更低。我知道他们支付的保险费比一个单一的经销商要低，他们在很多情况下使用自我保险。所以这些小细节，虽然不起眼，但我们在技术方面，广告方面和保险业务方面都支付了稍微少一些。
So, so Darryl Kenningham, I spoke with him, I don't know, a month or two ago and you know, he talks about how it's a 5% business. And I think maybe you guys talked about that too. And I think what he means by that is for every dollar of revenue we make, we take in our profit is 5%. So it's a very low margin business compared to almost any other business out. I mean, care it's a jewelry or, you know, home improvement or anything. Auto retailers make probably less per dollar revenue than just about any category I can think of. So if you can, you can shave little portions of your expense structure off, like I don't have to have this many people because I can use technology. I don't have to pay for as much per car. I could pay less for insurance that if I can take out 1% of my cost structure, when I go from 5% to 6%, I just increased my profits by 20%.
所以，达里尔·肯宁汉姆，我和他交谈过，大概一个月或两个月之前，他谈到了这是一个5%的行业。我想你们可能也讨论过这个问题。我认为他的意思是，对于我们每赚取的一美元收入，我们的利润只有5%。所以与其他行业相比，这是一个非常低的利润率行业。我是指，无论是珠宝、家庭装修还是其他任何行业，汽车零售商的每一美元收入可能比我能想到的任何类别都要少。所以，如果你能够削减一些费用结构，比如我不需要这么多员工，因为我可以使用技术，我不需要为每辆车支付那么多费用，我可以支付更少的保险费，那么当我从5%增加到6%时，我的利润就增加了20%。
Right. So when you start from a small base, grocery store, baby. Yes. Yes. So, so people like Darryl are keenly focused on getting a little bit more scale so they can reduce the average cost per transaction. And maybe they can also increase the gross profits they get from their vehicles too. If they have the exact vehicles that a customer wants, maybe they can charge a little bit more of that customer because they can transport across 20 miles, 50 miles, 200 miles. Obviously, you know, we're in a very low margin industry. How do you explain this rise in non-car business investors that are trying to enter the industry? Obviously, you have the big headline, you know, Nick Saban, the legendary football coach, who's been partnered with another dealer and has made lots of acquisitions.
没错。所以当你从一个小基础开始，比如杂货店，亲爱的。是的。是的。因此像达里尔这样的人非常注重获得更大的规模，以便减少每笔交易的平均成本。也许他们还可以增加从车辆上获得的总收益。如果他们有客户需要的确切车辆，也许他们可以稍微多收一点钱，因为他们可以运输20英里、50英里、200英里。显然，我们处于一个利润率很低的行业。你如何解释那些试图进入行业的非汽车业务投资者的崛起？显然，你们有一个大标题，知名足球教练尼克·塞班与另一家经销商合作，并进行了许多收购。
I get messages all the time from business owners, people to just have, you know, idle cash that I want to put it to work in the car business. I'm curious here from your perspective, how you're, you know, what you're seeing in this area, how much demand you're seeing from kind of quote-unquote, dumb money just from the industry. And what is attracting people to the car business for investment? People are interested in franchise auto retail because it is proven to be highly resilient to downturns and highly lucrative during upturns. The cash on cash returns and auto dealerships it's needs most other businesses. It also enjoys support of a global manufacturer that designs the product, produces the product, markets the product, finances the product, finances the dealer. So there's a lot of support for that dealer.
我一直都在收到企业主和那些仅仅拥有闲置现金的人的信息，他们希望把这笔钱用在汽车业务上。我很好奇，从你的角度来看，你在这个领域看到了什么，以及你看到了多少来自所谓的“愚蠢的钱”对这个行业的需求。人们为什么对汽车业务投资感兴趣呢？人们对特许经营汽车零售感兴趣，是因为它被证明在经济衰退时非常有韧性，在经济复苏时非常有利可图。汽车经销商的投资回报率超过了大多数其他业务。它还享受到一个全球制造商的支持，该制造商设计产品、生产产品、市场产品、为产品提供融资，同时也为经销商提供融资。因此，这为经销商提供了很多支持。
The business is diversified, you know, you're in the new car business, you're in the use car business, you're in the finance and insurance business, you're in the arts business, you're in the service business, you're in the body shop business. So if one part of your business is down, keep calm and sit in other ways.
这个企业非常多元化，你知道的，我们经营新车业务，二手车业务，金融和保险业务，艺术业务，服务业务，还有汽车维修业务。因此，如果业务的某一部分不景气，保持冷静并寻找其他的方式。
And it's a, it's a franchise system that is protected by state laws. And when I say protected, it means that if I own a Ford dealership in Orlando, Florida, Ford can't just drop another Ford point in across the street. There are laws that create certain amount of protection, like it needs to be 15 miles away before you can put it down. The laws say that every dealer can buy the Ford same product the same price. So there's, there's legal protections in place that support the longevity of these businesses.
这是一个受国家法律保护的特许经营制度。当我说受到保护时，意思是如果我在佛罗里达州奥兰多拥有一家福特经销商，福特不能随便在街对面再开设一家福特经销点。有一些法律规定了一定的保护措施，比如必须相隔15英里才能设立新经销点。这些法律规定每个经销商都可以以同样的价格购买福特的同一产品。因此，存在着支持这些企业长期生存的法律保护措施。
And I think that a lot of investors have said, you know, I can invest in technology and maybe one of every 10 or 20 tech companies successful. I can invest in pharma and maybe one of every 20 drugs that gets tested becomes a blockbuster. Or I could put my money in these businesses that exist in every town in America. And I've been in here for over 100 years.
我认为很多投资者都表示，你知道，我可以投资于科技行业，也许每10到20家科技公司中会有一家成功。我可以投资于制药业，也许每20种经过测试的药物中会有一种成为畅销品。或者我可以把我的钱投资于这些存在于美国每个城镇的企业。而且我已经在这个行业里经营了100多年。
In the great recession we had 2008, 2009, General Motors went bankrupt. Chrysler went bankrupt. The average dealership made $600,000 a year. So there, I mean, this is not a very nice term. But some people have said that, you know, all the retailers are like cockroaches of any retail business. They're just going to survive. Good times, bad times doesn't matter. The business model is so strong, it's going to remain on average profitable. Now, certainly some dealerships do lose money and have lost money. But very few have closed because they went out of business.
在我们遭受的大衰退期间(指2008年和2009年)，通用汽车公司破产了，克莱斯勒也破产了。平均每家经销商每年赚取60万美元。所以说，这个词可能不太友好，但有人说，你知道的，所有的零售商都像是零售业的蟑螂一样，它们只会生存下来。无论是好时光还是坏时光都无所谓。这个商业模式非常强大，平均来说都是有利可图的。当然，有些经销商确实会亏钱，也有亏损的情况出现过。但很少有因为破产而关闭的经销商。
So I think investors look around like, you know, if I can get 15% on an on leverage basis, that type of return and with some debt on, I can get high teens, low twenties. They'll take that all day long.
所以我认为投资者会四处寻找，你知道的，如果我可以以15%的杠杆基准获得这种回报，并且再加上一些债务，我可以获得高青少年到二十几岁的回报率。他们会一整天都接受这样的回报。
Now, I will also say that it's not easy for investors to enter our industry. I refer to dealerships as sticky assets. They're hard to get and they're hard to get rid of. And what I mean by that is if you're, you want to buy a dealership and, you know, there's no, you can't just, you know, open up the, the, you know, Zillow website and look for dealerships for sale, right? It's a private market. Most dealerships sellers don't want to interact with a new buyer. The only one to interact with somebody that believe will be approved because there's a two-step transaction process. A buyer and a seller have to be on the price and the buyer has to apply to the factory to be approved to become a dealer.
现在，我也要说投资者进入我们的行业并不容易。我称汽车经销商店为沾手资产。很难获得，也很难摆脱。我的意思是，如果你想购买一家汽车经销商店，你知道，你不能只是打开Zillow网站寻找待售的经销商店，对吧？这是一个私人市场。大多数经销商店卖家不想与新买家互动。他们只愿意与那些他们相信会被批准的人互动，因为这是一个两步交易过程。买家和卖家必须就价格达成一致，买家还必须向工厂申请批准成为经销商。
The factories don't really want newcomers. Nor do they want what I'll call fast money, you know, private equity firms buy business, put a lot of leverage on it, try to pull some levers in three or five years exit. That's the traditional private equity model. And auto manufacturers are really interested in a long-term relationship with a dealer 10, 20, 30 years, maybe even multi-generational because they want that dealer to be investing back to our balance for capital and talent. They want people to invest in nice facilities. They want people to invest in training to try to attract and retain great general management. Long-term thinking. Exactly. You know, that's kind of the Toyota way, onto way. And I think the domestic brands kind of feel the same way.
工厂实际上并不希望新来者。他们也不想要我所说的快钱，你知道的，私募股权公司购买企业，给企业施加很大的杠杆，试图在三到五年后退出。这是传统的私募股权模式。而汽车制造商真正感兴趣的是与经销商建立长期的关系，可能是10年、20年、30年，甚至是跨越几代人，因为他们希望经销商将资金和人才再投回我们的平衡中。他们希望人们在优良的设施上投资。他们希望人们在培训上投资，以吸引和留住优秀的总经理。这是长期思维。确切地说，这就是丰田的方式，也是其他国内品牌的方式。
So the private equity firms, family offices that we see being successful in entry now, and there are a number of them that have done very, very well, they're coming in with Evergreen capital. Meaning I'm going to put this money in and there is no timeline on when I'm going to take it out. Could be in there for three years, could be in there for 30. So long as you feel like we're getting a good return, we're going to leave it at. And we're going to partner with existing successful proven management teams. So you're not to worry about us being the investor messing up the business we're going to buy. We've got vetted, smart, successful, well-known management teams that are going to run these stores for us. We're just replacing one family's money with another investor's money. That's the pitch that we've seen be successful.
所以，在目前看到的私募股权公司和家族办公室中，有一些取得了非常好的成绩，它们投入的资金是长期资本。这意味着我将把这笔钱投入进去，没有时间限制来取出。可能在里面待上三年，也可能待上30年。只要我们觉得回报不错，我们就会保持不动。我们还将与现有成功的经过验证的管理团队合作。所以你不必担心我们作为投资者会搞砸要收购的企业。我们有经过审查、聪明、成功、广为人知的管理团队来为我们运营这些商店。我们只是用另一个投资者的资金取代了一个家族的资金。这是我们见过成功的推销方式。
And I think that, you know, there's certainly more investor groups to come in if they pursue that same model of long-term partnership with proven talent. Because, you know, these businesses have become so valuable and the groups keep on getting larger. You know, we're representing a transaction now. We're on full sale. It's over a billion dollars. You know, so you need a lot of capital out there that can buy these businesses.
我认为，你知道的，如果他们采用与经验丰富的人才建立长期合作关系的相同模式，肯定还会有更多的投资者团体加入。因为你知道，这些企业变得如此有价值，团体也越来越庞大。你知道，我们现在正在处理一项交易。它价值超过十亿美元。你知道，所以需要很多资金来购买这些企业。
Can you give us a preview? Give us a little sneak peek? I don't want to jinx it. Fair enough. Maybe the next time we speak, I could be more open about it. But I'm still a little superstitious. I'm eager. Yeah. I hear you.
你可以给我们一个预览吗？给我们一个小小的预览吗？ 我不想扫兴。挺公平的。也许我们下次交谈时，我可以更加坦诚一些。但我还是有点迷信。我很渴望得知。是的，我听得懂你的。
But, you know, every year, there's a couple of these big deals that happen. And sometimes there are public companies that are the buyers, but a good amount of time, there's still individuals, families that are stepping up to say, have that amount of capital to acquire these groups.
但是，你知道的，每年总会发生几笔大的交易。有时候买方是上市公司，但很大一部分时间，仍然是个人、家族出面表示愿意拥有足够的资本来收购这些集团。
What are you seeing in terms of dealer sentiment? Like, is there fear in the market? Cox automotive puts out this dealer sentiment index, which has been, you know, taking quite a dip. But I'm curious to know from you, you know, anecdotally, just, you know, on the street with your polls. What are you seeing?
从经销商的情绪来看，你看到了什么？市场上有恐惧吗？Cox汽车公司发布了经销商情绪指数，这指数一直在持续下滑。但是我很想知道，从你这里听到的，你在街头采集的信息，你看到了什么？
I would say there are kind of maybe three types of auto retailers. You know, the people that want to grow, and they have confidence. You know, they want to get bigger. They like this industry. They want more of it. They want to shovel all their chips in. There are people that have decided they want to exit. They're on the sell side, you know, and that's probably, I could be 20 to one buyers to sellers, you know, could be that kind of ratio. And there are people in the middle who say like, well, I don't want to get out because I still like the money I'm making. And I like having the job that I do, like my position on my community, the lifestyle that provides to me. But I'm not sure I want to put in more. So there, in many ways, they're the future sellers, five years, 10 years, 20 years, whatever, they're not going to grow.
我认为汽车零售商大致可以分为三种类型。首先是那些希望增长并充满信心的人。他们希望扩大业务，他们喜欢这个行业，想要更多的业务，想要全力以赴。其次是那些决定退出的人。他们处于出售的一方，买家可能是卖家的20倍。第三种是介于两者之间的人，他们可能会说：“我不想退出，因为我还喜欢我目前的收入来源，我喜欢我的职位、社区和生活方式。但我不确定我是否想要扩大投入。”因此，从很多方面看，这些人是未来的卖家，可能在5年、10年或20年后，他们不会再扩大业务。
And there's a phrase that friend of mine had years ago, Sam Swope, the erratic in Tucky. Smart man, he had a phrase when you're green, you're growing, when you're ripe, you're rotting, you're green, you're growing when you're ripe, you're rotting. So that growth that you get through acquisitions, in my opinion, is very healthy for an organization. Because to be approved by the factory, you have to have good sales efficiency, good customer satisfaction, and nice facilities. So you have to be a good dealer in order to be a dealer of another store. So your core operations have to be healthy. But also when you acquire a business, you're usually going to absorb some talent, some young people there, and that maybe it's just a single store. Maybe they one day could be your CFO, or maybe one day they could run your biggest dealership. So these acquisitions are a way that organizations can acquire more talent. And then they become a snowball, right? If I've got three stores, I'm going to go to four stores, I'm bigger, I'm stronger, I have more leverage with my vendors, right, getting back to the economy scale. If I have 10 stores, now I've got the ability to hire fixed ops expert, an F&I trainer, digital marketing expert, and that all should make me perform better than the guy that doesn't have those special consultants or advisors in the company. So I think M&A acquisitions make organizations healthier, and stronger, and more resilient towards downturns, as opposed to that, you know, if you're right, you're rotting, you're just sitting there standing still.
有一个朋友几年前提到过一个短语，Sam Swope，肯塔基的不定时的人。聪明的人，他有一个短语，当你还年轻时，你在成长，当你成熟时，你在衰退，当你还年轻时，你在成长，当你成熟时，你在衰退。所以，我认为通过收购来实现增长对一个组织来说是非常健康的。因为要获得工厂的批准，你必须具备良好的销售效率、客户满意度和良好的设施。所以，为了成为另一家商店的经销商，你必须是一家好的经销商。所以你的核心运营必须健康。但是当你收购一家企业时，通常会吸收一些人才，一些年轻人，也许只是一家单店铺。也许他们有一天可以成为你的首席财务官，或许有一天他们可以经营你最大的汽车销售网点。所以这些收购是组织获得更多人才的一种方式。然后它们会滚雪球一样变大，对吧？如果我有三家店，我会去开四家店，我变得更大，更强大，我在与供应商的业务中拥有更多的优势，回到规模经济的问题。如果我有10家店，那么我就有能力雇佣维修运营专家、金融和保险培训师、数字营销专家，这些都应该使我比那些没有这些专业顾问或者顾问公司的人表现得更好。因此，我认为并购收购使得组织更加健康、更强大、更具抗风险性，而不是那种只是原地踏步、不前进的情况。
People in your organization, they're ambitious. You know, if you're a sales person, and you're not going to grow at all, and there's a sales manager that's 40 years old, sitting there, how are you ever going to get promoted in that company? It's just one position that you could one day compete for. So those people may leave and join larger groups.
你组织里的人都是雄心勃勃的。你知道，如果你是销售员而你完全没有任何进步的机会，而且有一个40岁的销售经理坐在那里，那你怎么可能在这个公司得到晋升呢？可能只有一个职位你有朝一日能够争夺。所以这些人可能会离开，加入规模更大的团队。
You reminded me of something that is pretty embarrassing, but when I was in my teens, I had just, you know, started getting into like the business world, like more formally and stuff like that, you know, interested in it. And I remember learning for the first time as a team, that a business is supposed to always grow. It sounds so childish, but I found that just mind boggling because it was bizarre to me. You know, I grew up at an entrepreneur or household, but you know, immigrant family, like small business, just wasn't anything corporation. And so the businesses, as far as I saw physically, they were never growing. You know, maybe they were growing behind the scenes, but physically something like that, to me, looked like something pretty stagnant. And then when I discovered that a business is healthiest, and generally speaking, it's supposed to always grow. I just, it's so funny when you say that, because I think back to those days and just not knowing.
你提醒我一个相当尴尬的事情，就是在我的十几岁时，我刚刚开始进入商业世界，更正式地参与其中，对此非常感兴趣。我记得作为一个十几岁的人，第一次学到一个企业应该始终保持增长，听起来很幼稚，但我觉得那简直让我难以置信，因为对我来说太奇怪了。你知道，我在一个移民家庭长大，经营小生意，并不是公司。就我所见，这些企业从物理上来说，并没有增长。也许在幕后有增长，但在我的眼里，它们看起来是相当停滞的。当我发现一个企业最健康的状态通常应该是始终在增长时，你说这个话时，我觉得很有趣，因为我回想起那些不知道的日子。
And so yeah, funny little story there. I maybe, if it's a ten of capitalism, but maybe it's not healthy, I'll be better off if we just found the light will be added, it's black or more.
所以，是个有趣的小故事。或许，如果用资本主义打分的话，我可能是十分之一，但也许这并不健康。如果我们只是找到一点光亮来增加它，无论是黑色还是更多的光亮，我会过得更好。
I think by now I've seen businesses on both sides of the aisles. And I think you definitely want to be moving forward because, you know, the way I say it is if you're not growing, you're regressing. Well, that's, that's so when you're growing, you're growing when you're right, you're running. It's a, it's another agricultural way to say it.
我想到现在为止，我已经见过两侧过道上的企业。而且我认为你肯定想要向前发展，因为，你知道的，我说的是如果你不在成长，你就在退步。嗯，那样的话，你在成长时，你就在前进。这是另一种农业的说法。
Lots of people listening to this podcast, you know, are looking for opportunities in this business, whether it's employment opportunities, whether it's, you know, opportunities to build a company or a technology to sell to dealers. Maybe it's consumers that are just curious to know kind of what's changing if I'm going to need to go buy my car, or maybe it's investors that want to invest.
很多听这个播客的人，你知道的，都在寻找这个行业的机会，无论是就业机会，还是建立公司或销售技术给经销商的机会。也许是那些对汽车购买是否需要变化感到好奇的消费者，或者是想要投资的投资者。
So with that said, where do you see dealers adding value the most nowadays? As if you're advising dealers, right, on their businesses nowadays, how are you having that conversation with respect to value creation so they can get the most money for their dealerships, you know, or, you know, build the best possible dealership? Is it, does it step from a specific department? Is it, hey, focus on your service department versus this? Is it kind of more holistic? How do you think about just adding value, creating value at a dealership nowadays?
那么，就这样说，你认为目前经销商最能增加价值的地方在哪里？如果你要给经销商提建议，关于如何在他们的业务中创造价值以便能够最大化他们的车行收益，或者说，打造最佳的车行，你是如何进行这样的对话的呢？是要从特定部门入手吗？比如重点放在维修部门？还是更加以整体角度来考虑？你对如何在车行中增加和创造价值有何思考？
So profits drive a lot of value. And I think that for dealers that are seeking to maybe sell in the next couple of years, we definitely recommend taking a hard look at their business. And we regularly provide valuations to dealers that are thinking about selling. And those valuations, we identify areas of improvement that we think the next guy could make. And if we take that information and ensure that with a deal, like we had a presentation yesterday to do two owners, they own two stores, one's a Toyota store, and their gross profits they're getting on new vehicles we didn't see any room for improvement there, but their finance and insurance profits were under $900 per car. That's less than half what they should be. And then their fixed operations has actually declined over the last four years. That's also really surprising. We haven't seen that at all in any other group that I can think of because labor rates have gone up significantly. The more people trying to get their car service because they can't get new cars. So almost every other service department has expanded significantly.
利润带来了许多价值。我认为，对于计划在未来几年内出售的经销商来说，我们强烈建议他们仔细审视自己的业务状况。我们经常为考虑出售的经销商提供评估报告。这些评估报告会指出我们认为下一位经销商可以改进的地方。如果我们将这些信息与交易结合起来，就像我们昨天向两家店铺的所有者进行的演示一样，他们拥有两家店铺，一家是丰田店，他们从新车销售中获得的毛利润并没有发现任何改进空间，但他们的金融与保险利润每辆车不到900美元，不到正常水平的一半。而且他们的固定运营时间在过去四年中实际上有所下降，这也非常令人惊讶。在我所能想到的其他任何团体中，我们都没有见过这种情况，因为劳动力费用已大幅上涨。更多人想要维修他们的汽车，因为他们无法购买新车。因此，几乎每个其他的售后服务部门都有了显著扩张。
So our advice to these folks were, well, if you want to sell now, what we can sell now, we'll point these areas out to a buyer, we'll get some value for that upside, because buyers will pay a little bit more if they can see a room to improve business than if it's hitting on all cylinders. And so we can recommend to them, you know, here's some F&I companies that could come in and train your existing staff, you don't have to fire people, but you need to tend about what products you're selling, how are you selling those in the store, what's the process like, because they should be making an extra thousand dollars car in F&I on new annuals. And then on the fixed operations, you know, this company had increased its labor rates by about $60 during the pandemic. So they pushed the rates up a lot, but none of that money is really flowing through the bottom line. So to us, that's almost an internal audit. Like, how's that possible? War ROs, vortex, higher labor rate, no more gross, there's something that doesn't really add up to us.
我们给这些人的建议是，嗯，如果你们想立即出售，我们可以将现在可以售出的部分展示给买家，我们可以从中获得一些增值，因为买家如果能看到业务改进的空间，他们会愿意支付更高的价格。因此，我们可以向他们推荐一些F＆I（财务和保险）公司，他们可以来培训现有员工，你不需要解雇人员，但你需要关注你正在销售什么产品，如何在店内销售，流程是怎样的，因为他们应该每年在新车的财务和保险上增加1000美元的收入。而在固定运营方面，这家公司在疫情期间将劳动力费率提高了约60美元。所以他们大幅抬高了费率，但其中的利润并没有真正反映在底线上。对我们来说，这几乎是内部审计。不太可能有，工单数量增加，费率更高，利润没有增加，这对我们来说有点蹊跷。
So that we recommended, you know, hiring in a fixed-up specialist to come in and review, how does it go from the customer drives in the service driver, even before they drive in, you know, what marketing are you doing to get customers come in? They do come in. What happens between when they drive in and starts to talk about the needs they have and then when they pick up the vehicle, how is it that there's not more gross profits in location? But these two departments are the ones that could be most quickly impacted by dealers.
所以我们建议，你知道，雇佣一个经验丰富的专家来进行审查，了解顾客开车进入服务区之前，你们在进行什么市场营销活动来吸引顾客前来？他们确实会前来。在顾客开车进来并开始谈论他们的需求之间到他们取车之前，为什么这个地方的毛利润并不足够？但这两个部门是最容易受到经销商影响的部门。
So years ago, when I was at our nation buying stores, F&I was a real strong suit for automation. It's always been one of the leading F&I companies in the country. They do an excellent job in financing their customers and providing insurance products to their customers.
很多年前，当我在我们国家的购物商店时，F&I（金融和保险）服务是自动化的一大亮点。它一直是国内领先的金融和保险公司之一。他们在为客户提供融资和保险产品方面做得非常出色。
And then fixed operations, you know, for years it was a leader and advertising to customers. Don't just advertise in the car sale, but promote your ability to service those customers, get them back into the service drive. Those are two areas when all our nation was buying fewer ships that it focused on immediately and did have a quick impact on improving those departments.
然后，我们进行了改进操作，你知道的，多年来，我们在广告上一直是行业的领导者。我们不仅仅在汽车销售方面进行广告，而且还宣传我们为顾客提供服务的能力，让他们回到服务站。在我们国家购买船只的数量减少时，我们立即关注了这两个领域，并且对改善这些部门产生了快速影响。
Often it had a hard time sustaining the sales levels of the businesses it bought because that's sometimes where the entrepreneurial talent come in. It's not a one size fits all in sales. You have to know the local market quite well. But those two areas, if you want to add value as a dealer, I would say you can do that within weeks. Because if you're improving F&I, you're not really taking any business away from a competitor. If you want to improve your new car sales, you're probably going to have to take business from somebody. That's a very good point. And used, again, you're competing with a lot more people on the use side. That's an investment in capital to get more products done to train, etc. There is some risk in boosting your use car operations. But F&I and fixed, that is in my opinion, the fastest way to improve the profit and dealership. Using your current staff, you don't have to think about hiring new managers.
经常情况下，它很难维持收购的企业的销售水平，因为这有时候涉及到创业才能。销售不是一刀切的。你必须对本地市场非常了解。但是如果你想作为经销商增加价值，我会说你可以在几周内做到这一点。因为如果你改进F&I（金融与保险业务），你实际上并没有从竞争对手那里夺取任何业务。如果你想提高新车销售，你可能需要从某人那里夺取业务。这是一个非常好的观点。而且，对于二手车销售来说，你将与更多人竞争。这需要投资资金来增加产品数量和培训等。增加二手车运营存在一定风险。但在我看来，改进F&I和维修服务是提高利润和经销商效益最快的方式。利用现有员工，你不需要考虑雇佣新经理。
Yeah, just changing some things around. I'm curious to know, last time we spoke, you were talking about talent in this industry. And specifically how you never knew how much money you could make in the car business. And I think many people don't. I think I've posted some stuff about it. And people have been surprised by a cop that a general manager can make or sales manager and whatnot.
是的，我只是在做一些变动。我很好奇上次我们交谈时，你提到了这个行业的人才问题。尤其是你从未想到在汽车业可以赚到这么多钱。我想有很多人并不知道。我记得我之前发布了一些相关的内容，人们都对警察能成为总经理或销售经理这类职位赚得那么多感到惊讶。
What do you think in terms of growing talent in this industry? Do you think we still have to make some structural changes or systemic changes to the way dealerships operate to attract more talent? Do you think just virtue of the income that's there more talent will start flocking to the car business? What's your outlook on industry talent? As we just mentioned, are we progressing or are we regressing?
在培养这个行业的人才方面，你的想法是什么？你认为我们是否仍需进行一些结构性或系统性的变革，以吸引更多的人才加入汽车销售行业？你认为仅仅凭借行业的收入就能吸引更多的人才涌向汽车销售业吗？对于行业人才，你的展望如何？正如我们刚才提到的，我们是在进步还是在倒退？
It's a great question. I think that the amount of money that salespeople, sales managers, general managers, fixed managers, F&I folks have made in the last year, three years from industry has been incredible. I was on the phone yesterday with somebody who invested in a dealership. He borrowed the money to invest in a small Korean brand. And he did great things with it. He really, really grew this company significantly. And part of his pay package when he joined was he would get 20% of the profits because it was a small store. He's making like $3 million a year now as a general manager of his business. He deserves it in many ways because he took the risk. He made the investment, etc. And that won't be sustained probably. And you can't say that this is a path that people should just go because to make $3 million a year is remarkable for anybody. But I'm hoping that this word of compensation leaks out to our industry.
这是一个很好的问题。我认为销售人员、销售经理、总经理、固定经理、金融保险（F&I）人员在过去一年、三年从行业赚到的钱是令人难以置信的。昨天我和一个在一家经销商投资的人通电话。他借钱投资了一家小型韩国品牌，并取得了巨大的成功。他确实为该公司取得了显著增长。在加入时，他的薪酬计划的一部分是根据盈利的20%来计算，因为那是一家小店。现在，作为他的企业的总经理，他每年赚取了300万美元。从很多方面来说，他是应该得到这样的报酬的，因为他冒险了，他进行了投资等等。这种情况可能不会持续下去。并且，你不能说这是一个人们应该追求的道路，因为每年赚取300万美元对任何人来说都是非凡的。但我希望这种补偿方式的消息能够传播到我们的行业中。
But I actually think we could be in for a little bit of an exodus of talent because the salespeople who are used to making 100, 300, 700,000 dollars a year selling new cars at Oversticker, they're going to have a significant retraction or compensation when cars are selling for sticker or less. And will they be accepting of that declining compensation or are they going to leave and get back into mortgage brokerage business or selling something else rather than cars. So I think a number of the orders are a little afraid that as these grosses come down, as the profits come down, there's going to be a flight of talent from our industry.
但实际上我认为我们可能会面临一些人才大量流失，因为那些一直在以高出市价销售新车为生的销售人员，他们的年薪可能从10万、30万、70万美元会有显著的缩减或补偿，因为车辆的售价可能只能达到市价甚至更低。他们是否会接受这样下降的补偿，还是会离开行业，重回房屋抵押经纪业务或销售其他产品，而不再销售汽车。所以，我认为一些经销商可能担心随着利润和总收入下降，我们行业将会有一大批人才流失。
I would love it if it were more public, how much money you can make in the car business. One of my teammates wrote a piece that he published in LinkedIn, and I think it's on Twitter too, or Acts about GM versus MD. And he talked about how much money the average general manager makes, how much money the average doctor makes. General managers make war. And one general manager never went to college, they didn't need that formal education, they just were good entrepreneurs and worked hard. And in many ways, they have our quality lifestyle. Status, I think that's one big distinction that whether we like it or not, the reality is to tell the world operates. If you're an MD of status, and frankly, when I was in my earlier days making more money than any of my friends, hundreds of thousands, people were like, oh, you sell cars, right? So I think status is a real big thing here.
如果能更加公开地了解在汽车行业可以赚多少钱，那将非常棒。我的一个队友在LinkedIn上发表了一篇文章，我觉得他也在Twitter上讨论过GM和MD之间的比较。他谈到了普通总经理的平均收入和医生的平均收入。总经理赚了不少钱。有些总经理甚至没有上过大学，他们并不需要正式的教育，他们只是很优秀的企业家，努力工作而已。从很多方面来说，他们过着优质的生活。地位，我认为这是一个很大的区别，不管我们喜不喜欢，现实就是这样告诉世界的。如果你是一个有地位的医生，说实话，当我年轻的时候挣了比我朋友们多得多的钱，数十万，人们就会问：“哦，你是卖车的，对吧？”所以我认为地位在这里是非常重要的。
I think you're right. I have two boys that joined our company here earlier this year. They're 24 and 26. And I suggested to them, you should go work at a dealership six months a year or whatever to have some knowledge, some experience, because I'd never worked in the car business before I joined Auto Nations. I didn't bring anything to the award, just brought some investment banking experience.
我认为你是对的。我有两个儿子在今年年初加入了我们公司。他们分别是24岁和26岁。我建议他们每年去汽车经销商工作六个月或更长时间，以获取一些知识和经验，因为我在加入Auto Nations之前从未在汽车行业工作过。我没有带来任何奖项，只有一些投资银行的经验。
But because I sat in on all of the operations meetings, I absorbed a lot about what was really going on at the dealership level. I think my kids, and I suggested that to them, year would be better off in the future if you take six months or a year of work to a dealership. They both looked at me like, they didn't say no way, dad. But that wasn't what they had been raised to do. That wasn't what their peers were doing. One of my kids was in an undergraduate business program, and he was doing spreadsheet modeling, LBO modeling, finance and economics. There was no, what do you say to a customer when they walk in the door? There's none of that. The other son was doing consulting. He was working with strategic issues about how to advise companies. You got to go sit in that lot, or you're going to sit in that BDC center and you're going to answer phone calls and deal with what it takes to get a customer in the door and then sell them a vehicle.
但是因为我参加了所有的经营会议，我了解了在经销商层面上正在发生的事情。我认为我的孩子们，我向他们建议，如果你们在将来花半年或一年的时间去经销商那里工作，将会更好。他们都看着我，好像他们没有说不，爸爸。但这并不是他们被养育的方式。这也不是他们的同龄人所做的。我的一个孩子正在攻读本科商务课程，他正从事电子表格建模、杠杆收购建模、金融和经济学。没有人告诉他，当顾客走进门时你要说什么？没有这样的事情。另一个儿子在从事咨询工作。他在处理关于如何为公司提供建议的战略问题。你得去那个停车场坐一下，或者你要坐在那个BDC中心，接听电话并处理吸引顾客进门然后销售给他们车辆的工作。
So I think that you're right. There's still a change needed in our industry because the reality is I think a lot of general managers who work really hard and I think it is sort of every penny they make, tell you that it is challenging and fun what they do to orchestrate a company of 50, 70, 100, sometimes 200 people are in these organizations and get the new card apartment to work with the U-Scard apartment to work with service department to work with the body shop, advertising, HR, IT. You're running a big enterprise, a $100 million more enterprise. Then some doctors, I think have finished medical school and certainly that we need physicians. Why they save our lives at J-O-S. We need doctors.
所以我认为你是对的。在我们的行业中仍然需要一些改变，因为实际上，我认为很多非常努力工作的总经理，他们挣的每一分钱都证明，他们告诉你这是一项具有挑战性和有趣的工作，他们要组织一个拥有50、70、100人甚至有时候是200人的公司，而且还要与销售部门、服务部门、车身修理厂、广告、人力资源、信息技术等合作。你是在经营一个价值1亿美元甚至更多的大企业。然后，有些医生已经完成了医学院的学业，当然我们需要医生，因为他们拯救了我们在J-O-S的生命。我们需要医生。
But some might say, well, I'm just kind of punching a clock and working for a big company to tell me what I do, when I do it, how I do it. I'm not really ever going to ever do anything different than this. And so for some people, I would think that a career in automotive, if you're actually in business, can be really exciting because within a short amount of time, you can be the CEO significant enterprise versus if you go into consulting, you go and you work at Deloitte. You know, you're going to be, Bill and Miley, our clients to get advice about technology, HR, whatever, you probably will never have a chance to really want a business and be an entrepreneur. And that's what I think attracts and attains people to our industry is the excitement. They love the products. They like working with people and they can make a great living doing it.
但是也许有人会说，我只是按时上班，为一家大公司工作，由他们告诉我该做什么，什么时候做，如何做。我可能永远都不会有机会做些不同的事情了。因此，我认为，对一些人来说，如果你真正从事汽车行业，那可能非常令人兴奋，因为在短时间内，你可以成为一家重要企业的首席执行官。相比之下，如果你从事咨询工作，在德勤工作，你会成为比尔和迈尔的客户，给他们提供建议，无论是关于技术、人力资源等方面，你可能永远没有机会真正想要经营一家企业，成为一名企业家。这就是我认为吸引和留住人们进入我们行业的原因，这个行业充满了刺激。他们喜欢产品，喜欢与人合作，并且可以通过这样做过上美好的生活。
Alan, hey, give us your outlook for the car market for the next year. I think it's going to continue to be really strong in terms of demand for products. We've been told by the Fed, they're going to be three interest rate cuts, probably the second half of next year. I think there's going to be a decline in the profit of dealerships during that time. We estimate, you know, dealership values are coming down one to two percent per month. That could accelerate a little bit if margins come down faster than what people think. But there are going to continue to be a lot of people that want to grow. They like the car business. They understand that the profits will come down. They're going to factor those declining profits into their offers. We'll still see dealership values really more than twice what they were before the pandemic. I don't think anybody really believes we're going to go back to the level of profits we were at in 2019. If nothing just goes in inflation, cars cost more. If the Martin stays the same, the profits are going to be higher.
艾伦，嗨，告诉我们一下你对未来一年汽车市场的看法。我认为从产品需求角度来看，市场将继续保持强劲。联邦储备委员会告诉我们，他们将在明年下半年进行三次降息。我认为在此期间经销商的利润将会下降。我们估计，经销商价值每个月会下降一到两个百分点。如果利润下降速度超出预期，这种情况可能会加剧。但是仍然会有很多人希望扩大业务。他们喜欢汽车行业，并理解利润会下降。他们会将这些下降的利润纳入他们的报价中。我们仍然会看到经销商价值比疫情前增长了一倍以上。我认为没有人真的认为我们会回到2019年的利润水平。如果没有通胀，汽车成本会更高。如果利润保持不变，利润将会更高。
I think there are also some entrepreneurs who say that, hey, once the managers, the salespeople, they're used to making a certain amount of money, they want to maintain that living. So people are not going to go right back to cutting these prices to the bone and making no money on the sale of a gorilla or a camera. This won't make sense to them anymore. So I think that the business is going to continue to be strong in 2024.
我认为还有一些企业家会说，嘿，一旦经理、销售人员习惯了赚取一定数量的钱，他们就会想要维持那种生活水平。因此，人们不会再立即将价格压到最低，以至于在猩猩或相机的销售上不赚钱。这对他们来说已经不合理了。所以我认为2024年这个行业将继续保持强劲。
I think M&A is going to continue to be strong in 2024. I love all the new products that are coming out. We're going to probably deal with some rocky issues on the EV side, because there's an oversupply of those vehicles. I think the politicians will roll back their requirements for going all EV. I think that the plug-in hybrids to me is a great compromise that satisfies consumers that want to burn no fossil fuels when they go to school or to work. Like a man, you go to 40 miles, but they can also drive 400 miles to the beach or to the mountains or to grandma's house. So I feel like that technology is going to rise in its importance to our future.
我认为2024年并购行动将继续保持强劲。我喜欢所有即将推出的新产品。我们可能要面对电动车领域的一些困难问题，因为这些车辆供应过剩。我认为政治家们将会放宽对纯电动车的要求。对我来说，插电式混合动力车是一个很好的折衷方案，可以满足那些希望上下班或上学时不燃烧化石燃料的消费者。像一个男人一样，你只需要40英里的驾驶里程，但他们也可以开400英里去海滩、山区或祖母家。所以我觉得这项技术将在未来变得更加重要。
And hopefully we'll have peace in the Middle East and in Ukraine next year. Amen. Alan Hake, thanks so much for coming on. If anyone wants to learn more about you or HakePartners, of course, you can visit HakePartners.com. Link is going to be in the show notes below. We're also going to attach a link to the Hake Report below, which again is a wealth of knowledge. And if anyone wants to get in touch with you, how can they reach out? My email is Alan at HakePartners.com. And you can call me. I fear in my phone is the my own phone number I have. That's 954-646-8921. Extremely accessible and easy. I'd love to see it.
希望明年中东和乌克兰都能实现和平。阿门。Alan Hake，非常感谢你的到来。如果有人想要了解更多关于你和HakePartners的信息，他们可以访问HakePartners.com。我们也将在下方的节目备注中附上Hake Report的链接，这是一个非常丰富的知识来源。如果有人想要与你联系，他们应该怎么办？我的电子邮件是Alan@HakePartners.com。你也可以给我打电话，我在手机上保留了我的电话号码，就是954-646-8921。非常容易接触和联系。我很乐意帮助。
Alan, thanks so much for coming on. It was great. Pleasure talking with you. All right. Hope you enjoyed that episode. Please give the podcast a rating. Consider subscribing to the show and check the show notes for links to what we talked about. Thanks for tuning in. I'll see you guys next time.
Alan，非常感谢你能参加。这真是太棒了。很高兴和你交谈。好了。希望你喜欢这一集。请给这个播客评个分。考虑订阅节目，并查看节目说明中我们谈论的相关链接。谢谢你的收听。下次见。