Does Tesla Have a Battery Problem? / Cybertruck Delays? / Dealers Opting Out ⚡️
发布时间 2023-12-21 23:41:38 来源
With the exception of Tesla, which I believe will struggle next year, as the womb is off the electric rose.
除了特斯拉之外，我认为明年将会面临困境，因为电动汽车行业的黄金时期已经过去。
Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis, so today we're going to zip through the news a bit faster than usual, that's because we have a special guest appearance later in this video from our friends over at Rebellioner.
欢迎来到Electrified，我是你的主持人迪伦·卢米斯。今天我们要比平常快速地浏览一下新闻，因为在这个视频中，我们将会有来自我们好友Rebellioner的特别嘉宾露面。
Matt Smith and Bradford Ferguson have been doing some really good research and they put together a video for us, so stay tuned for that.
Matt Smith 和 Bradford Ferguson 进行了一些非常好的研究，并为我们制作了一个视频，所以请继续关注。
First up today, as you can tell by the title, we have another negative piece about Tesla coming from Reuters, according to sources.
今天首先，正如标题中所描述的，我们有一篇关于特斯拉的负面报道，据消息来源称该报道由路透社撰写。
Either way though, let's go through and see what they have to say. 9 people familiar with the matter are saying Tesla's 4680 production and the speed it can make those cells for the Cybertruck with the dry coating technology is the limiting factor.
不管怎样，让我们继续来看看他们都有什么话要说。熟悉此事的9个人表示，特斯拉的4680电池生产和使用干式涂布技术加速为Cybertruck生产这些电池的速度是制约因素。
Gigatexus is currently only making enough 4680s for 24,000 Cybertrucks per year or about a tenth of the required output.
Gigatexus目前只生产足够的4680电池，每年可供应2.4万台Cybertruck，大约只达到所需产量的十分之一。
I'm guessing what they mean by required output is that 250,000 Cybertruck per year number, but let's not forget, they're not expecting to do that in terms of maybe even a run rate until 2025.
我猜他们所说的"所需产量"是指每年25万辆Cybertruck，但我们不能忘记，他们在2025年之前甚至可能不希望达到这个产量。
So to argue that Tesla's current 4680 production rate is a tenth of where it needs to be right now is just disingenuous at best.
所以，要说特斯拉目前的4680电池产量仅为其实际需求的十分之一，最好是在欺骗人的程度上夸大其词。
These 9 sources said that Tesla had yet to crack the dry coating technology at scale, and that specifically they're struggling with that technique for the cathode.
这9个消息来源表示，特斯拉尚未能够大规模应用干涂层技术，并且特别是他们在阴极的这种技术上遇到了困难。
This really isn't news we've known for months now that Tesla has DBE figured out for the anode, but the cathode has been giving them challenges.
这真的不是什么新闻，我们早就知道特斯拉已经解决了关于阳极的DBE问题，但阴极一直是他们面临的挑战。
As I often say, don't forget the immense challenge that Tesla is undertaking with this 4680 production.
正如我经常说的那样，不要忘记特斯拉正在承担的这项巨大挑战，即4680电池生产。
We have a battery consultant saying the challenge is that not only does Tesla have to scale it up and speed up the process, it also lets develop its own equipment and tools, it's daunting to save the least.
我们有一个电池顾问表示，挑战在于特斯拉需要不仅扩大规模并加快进程，还需要自行开发设备和工具，这让人感到非常困难。
Plus, when it comes to this tricky DBE tech for the cathode, Tesla is the first one to try to commercialize this.
此外，当涉及到阴极的这种棘手的DBE技术时，特斯拉是第一个尝试商业化的企业。
According to three of the sources, each Cybertruck pack has 1,360 4680 cells.
根据三个信息来源，每个Cybertruck电池组装有1,360颗4680电池单体。
Then it's lines like this that give you insight into how the author of this article is trying to frame the situation by saying the Cybertruck is entering a hot market with rivals like the F-150 Lightning, the R1C, and the Hummer from GM.
然后，像这样的句子使你能够洞察到本文作者试图通过说Cybertruck进入一个竞争激烈的市场，与F-150 Lightning、R1C以及来自通用汽车的Hummer等竞争对手相比来描述这种情况。
Hot market seems like a stretch though, don't you think? The F-150 Lightning just cut their production forecast in half for next year.
尽管如此，您认为热销市场似乎有点夸张吗？F-150 Lightning刚刚将明年的产量预测减少了一半。
Rivians definitely making progress, but they're still only doing a few thousand units per month, and then the Hummer from GM were talking a few thousand sales per year.
Rivian公司无疑正在取得进展，但他们每个月只能生产几千辆汽车，而通用汽车（GM）的悍马每年销售也只有几千辆。
So in a pickup market that sells millions of trucks per year in the United States, I would not classify the EV section as hot right now.
在美国每年销售数百万辆卡车的货车市场上，我不认为电动车（EV）部分目前火热。
They said right now, Gigatexus makes 10,04680 cells every 16 weeks, so every roughly 4 months. Only roughly 32 million cells per year, and if you divide by that 1,364 each battery pack, that's only enough for about that 24,000 Cybertrucks per year.
他们说，目前Gigatexus每16周生产10,04680个电池单元，大约每4个月生产一次。每年大约只生产约3200万个电池单元，如果按每个电池组含有1364个电池计算，那么一年只够生产约24000辆Cybertruck。
Don't forget though, 24,000 a year, divided by 52 weeks, is about 460 Cybertrucks per week, and Tesla definitely is not making that many trucks just yet.
不过不要忘记，每年24000辆，按照52周计算，大约是每周约460辆Cybertruck，而特斯拉目前显然还没有生产那么多卡车。
So the fact is Tesla's 4680 production, if this article is accurate, is still ahead of the pace of the Cybertruck production, so it's really not a limiting factor.
所以事实上，特斯拉的4680电池生产，如果这篇文章准确的话，仍然领先于Cybertruck的生产进度，所以这真的不是一个限制因素。
When they sneak in, two sources said 4680 production will likely gain steam, especially once it achieves stability with the production know-how on one production line.
据两位消息人士称，当他们偷偷潜入时，4680生产很可能会迅速增长，尤其是一条生产线在生产知识方面达到稳定之后。
Saying once you crack the code and establish stability, it's like exponential. Speed would pick up. There's already a lot of traction in dry coding, according to this source.
一旦你破解了代码并建立了稳定性，进展会像指数增长一样。速度会加快。据这个消息来源称，干燥编码已经取得了很大的进展。
And as Drew said on the call right now, Tesla has two lines of 4680 production, but they plan to install a total of 8 lines there in two phases, with the last four due to be running toward the end of 2024.
正如德鲁刚才在电话中提到的，特斯拉目前有两条4680生产线，但他们计划分两个阶段在那里安装总共8条生产线，其中最后四条计划于2024年年底开始运行。
Back to the DBE, one of the sources said Tesla's dry coding method for cathodes was not proving to be any faster than the old wet process, though scrap rates had dropped to as low as 10-20%.
回到DBE，一位消息人士表示，特斯拉干法阳极的编码方法并没有比旧的湿法工艺更快，尽管废品率已经降低至10%至20%的低水平。
They're saying the DBE process on the cathode is working for small amounts, but when Tesla tries to scale it up, it's generating a lot of heat and it's actually melting the binder.
他们说阴极上的DBE过程在小量上有效，但当特斯拉试图扩大规模时，它产生了大量的热量，实际上还融化了粘合剂。
One source said specifically, it was about building data infrastructure around Tesla's battery development, manufacturing and in-field use, because in some cases, the flaws were hidden in the coding and did not show up for a few months down the road.
据一位消息人士表示，这个消息是关于在特斯拉的电池开发、制造和使用过程中构建数据基础设施的，因为在某些情况下，缺陷可能隐藏在编码中，数月后才会显现出来。
Implying there's a delay until Tesla actually figures out which of these dry cells are good to use.
这句话的意思是，暗示特斯拉需要一些时间来弄清楚哪些干电池适合使用，直到确定之前会有一些延迟。
I have a few thoughts. First, let's not forget about Kato Road, although technically it's a pilot line, right now it's actually down for upgrades, so when that comes back online, most likely in quarter one, hopefully they have better production rates and better yields and they can start using some of those cells in addition to what they already have at Gigatexas.
我有几个想法。首先，我们不要忘记卡托路(Kato Road)，虽然从技术上来说它只是一条试生产线，但现在它实际上已经停止运营进行升级。所以当它在第一季度重新上线时，希望他们能够提高生产速率和产量，并且能够开始使用一些这些电池，除了他们在Gigatexas已经拥有的电池之外。
Two, just because 4680 production for the Cybertruck is not a limiting factor yet, doesn't mean that if Tesla can't solve DBE at scale for the cathode sometime in 2024, that it won't become a limiting factor over the next 12 months. And I have to say, given that this has never been done before at scale, there really are no guarantees that Tesla is going to figure it out in time before it does start slowing down Cybertruck production rates. But as we know, Tesla has already pulled many rabbits out of hat, so hopefully they can do it again.
尽管Cybertruck的4680电池生产目前还不是限制因素，但这并不意味着如果特斯拉在2024年之前不能解决阴极材料的大规模问题，它不会成为未来12个月内的限制因素。我必须说，由于这个问题在大规模上还从未做过，所以不能保证特斯拉能在时间之前解决它，以避免减缓Cybertruck的生产速度。但正如我们所知，特斯拉已经展现了许多突破性的成就，所以希望他们能再次做到。
Three, one thing the article didn't really mention that certainly wouldn't be ideal for Tesla, but they could just continue with the wet process for the cathode if need be. That's at least until they can figure out the DBE process, because don't forget the DBE process hasn't been really working to date, but they've still made great progress with overall 4680 production.
在这篇文章中没有提到的一件事是，对于特斯拉来说肯定不理想的，但是如果有必要，他们可以继续使用湿法工艺来制造正极。至少在他们能够解决DBE工艺之前，因为别忘了DBE工艺到目前为止并没有真正起作用，但他们在整体4680生产方面取得了巨大进展。
Four, nowhere in that article did they break out anything about the Cybersale or the Gen 2 cell, because that's what Cato Road is supposed to be shut down to upgrade to. And the word based on all of the public data we have is that 4680 production has been growing at a rate around 20% per month. So yeah, I think you get the picture, I could go on, but for now it's not a problem just yet, however it is absolutely something to keep an eye on, there are no guarantees that get this sorted out, so it is a risk of sorts over the next 12 months. And for now we just rely on Tesla's proven track record and the talent at the company that they'll figure this out before it comes more of a problem.
在那篇文章中，他们没有提及Cybersale或Gen 2电池，因为据说卡托路将关闭进行升级。根据我们所掌握的公共数据来看，4680电池的产量每月增长约20%。所以，是的，我认为你明白了，我可以继续说下去，但目前还不是一个问题，然而这绝对是需要密切关注的事情，在未来的12个月内没有任何保证能够解决这个问题，所以在目前我们只能依靠特斯拉的过去记录和公司里的人才，在问题变得更加严重之前他们将会解决这个问题。
When it comes to Tesla in Sweden we have another Danish pension fund, Pategorni's, selling it steak in Tesla stock as the mafia, I mean as the sympathy strikes carry on. What's this though, we have 24 sources reporting on this story, 7 of which lean left politically and 3 of which lean right. And check this out, some spot on main points to bring us up to speed on the story as quickly as possible. This useful interface that you're seeing right now is brought to us by ground news to sponsor of this video. Ground news is a website and an app that shows you the bias behind breaking news stories and helps you stay updated on the topics you care about most. Take this one for example, I can scroll down and right away see all of the different sources reporting and I can compare all of the different headlines for left leaning sources, center and right leaning. I can also look at these tags right here that will tell me the reliability of each article, the political bias and the ownership of that article. I can also click on any article and go read the full one anytime. So you know, the bias distribution is based on three independent news monitoring organizations. I have to say, it's been very insightful to actually see the ownership of all of these different news sources. If you'd like to support the ground news mission staying informed without the propaganda and media bias while also supporting Electrified, head to ground.news slash electrified to check it out. And subscribe through my link for just $1 a month or you can get 40% off unlimited access to the vantage subscription, which is what I use.
提到在瑞典的特斯拉，我们有另一个丹麦养老基金—Pategorni，像黑帮一样抛售特斯拉的股票，我是说，斗争继续进行。然而，我们有24个报道这个故事的来源，其中7个偏向左派政治立场，3个偏向右派。看看这个，有些主要观点能够让我们尽快了解这个故事。你现在看到的这个有用的界面是由Ground News撑起来的，它是这个视频的赞助商。Ground News是一个网站和应用，它向你展示了突发新闻故事背后的偏见，并帮助你随时了解你最关心的话题。以这个为例，我可以向下滚动，立刻看到所有不同的报道来源，还可以比较左倾、中立和右倾报道的不同标题。我还可以看到这些标签，告诉我每篇文章的可靠性、政治偏见和归属权。我还可以点击任何文章，随时阅读完整篇幅。所以，你知道，偏见分布是基于三个独立的新闻监控组织的。我必须说，实际上看到所有这些不同新闻来源的所有权是非常有启发性的。如果你想支持Ground News的使命——在没有宣传和媒体偏见的情况下保持知情，同时也支持Electrified，请访问ground.news/electrified了解详情。通过我的链接订阅，每月仅需1美元，或者你可以获得40%的无限访问折扣，这是我使用的订阅方式。
Just to highlight making EVs profitably is an immense challenge, let alone spinning up an entirely new battery production line. The Wall Street Journal identified 43 companies that went public between 2020 and 2022. EV startups, five have already filed for bankruptcy or been acquired. For the remaining 38, they found 18 companies were on track to run out of cash by the end of next year if they didn't cut costs or raise new capital. Seven of those companies had just weeks of cash on hand. A clean energy analyst said everyone was out there looking for the next Tesla. They should have listened to us. We've been saying Tesla is one of one now for years.
只是为了强调，让电动汽车有盈利能力本身就是一项巨大的挑战，更别提快速建立一条全新的电池生产线了。《华尔街日报》报道称，2020年至2022年间已有43家公司上市。其中，有5家电动汽车初创公司已经申请破产或被收购。对于剩下的38家公司，他们发现如果不削减成本或筹集新的资本，将有18家公司在明年底之前将面临资金不足的问题。其中有7家公司仅能维持几周现金流。一位清洁能源分析师表示，每个人都在寻找下一个特斯拉，他们应该听我们的意见。多年来，我们一直在说特斯拉是独一无二的。
From the journal, the Biden administration is discussing raising tariffs on some Chinese goods, including electric vehicles. Chinese EVs are already subject to a 25% tariff on top of a 2.5% tariff on auto imports. Other targets for potential tariff rate increases are Chinese solar products and EV battery packs. However, the administration has not decided on these tariffs. For some context, I was able to find from auto news that China exported around 48,000 EVs to North America as of October this year compared to 564,000 it sent to Western Europe.
根据这份报告，拜登政府正在讨论提高中国某些商品的关税，包括电动汽车。中国的电动汽车已经须支付25%的关税，此外还有2.5%的汽车进口关税。潜在加征关税的其他目标包括中国的太阳能产品和电动汽车电池组。然而，政府尚未对这些关税做出最终决定。为了提供一些背景资料，从汽车新闻中我了解到，今年10月份为止，中国出口到北美地区的电动汽车约为48,000辆，而向西欧出口的电动汽车数量为564,000辆。
Ford said half of its dealers in the US or about 1,550 have chosen to stick with selling hybrid and ice vehicles only in 2024, meaning they are not opting into the Ford Model E certification program for the dealers. Speaking of that, customers shopping for EVs at Ford dealers will soon see signage that identifies dealers as Model E certified elite or Model E certified.
福特表示，在美国有一半的经销商，约1550家，选择在2024年仅销售混合动力和内燃机车辆，意味着他们不选择加入福特的经销商模型E认证计划。说到这一点，购买福特电动车的顾客将很快能够见到标识，将经销商标识为模型E认证的精英或模型E认证商。
It's not that half of their dealers are opting out of selling full BEVs for good, as Ford will have another round of an opt-in period in 2027. And it's not just Ford dealers that are opting out. We also have the free press saying that half of the Buick dealerships or about 1,000 will opt out of moving forward with GM as it transitions to all electric by 2035. Just so you know, I have seen other sources out there that say Buick is looking to go all electric by 2030. GM bought out around half of its 2,000 Buick dealers over the past year as part of the voluntary buyout program. That's after telling its dealers to invest at least $300,000 to facilitate selling and servicing EVs or give up the Buick franchise.
并不是说他们一半的经销商都选择停止销售全电动汽车，因为福特将在2027年进行另一轮选择的期限。而且不仅仅是福特的经销商在选择退出。我们还看到自由媒体报道说，大约1,000家别克经销商将选择不继续与通用汽车公司合作，并在其到2035年的全面电动化转型中退出。只是提醒一下，我还看到其他消息来源称别克计划在2030年之前实现全面电动化。在过去一年里，通用汽车将其2,000家别克经销商中的大约一半买断，作为自愿买断计划的一部分。在要求经销商至少投资300,000美元以便销售和维修电动汽车，否则放弃别克特许经销权之后。
I won't get into this one on Tesla safety by Brandon Patek because most of us here already know the real story, but it was a very well-written article getting into a lot of detail, probably worth a bookmark, maybe something to share with people when they have questions about Tesla safety. This one is below.
我不打算就Brandon Patek关于特斯拉安全性的文章展开讨论，因为我们大部分人都已经了解真相。但这是一篇非常好的文章，涉及了很多细节，可能值得收藏，也可以在人们对特斯拉安全性有疑问时与他们分享。以下是这篇文章。
Speaking of GM and Chevy, we have this article from Edmunds saying our Chevy Blazer EV has 23 problems after only 2 months. Here they listed all of the Blazer EV's faults in that time period. As you can see, it's a fairly lengthy list on what is effectively a brand new car. And how could we forget that the Chevy Blazer EV was Motor Trends 2024 SUV of the year? Now yeah, this is just one anecdote, but this is a major brand for GM. They need to get this EV right and so far the production has been pretty slow. I think they only sold around 18 in quarter 3, so we'll see what happens with the Q4 data.
说起通用汽车和雪佛兰，我们有一篇来自Edmunds的文章，称我们的雪佛兰Blazer EV在仅仅2个月后就出现了23个问题。文章列举了这段时间内Blazer EV的所有故障。正如你所看到的，这是一份相当长的列表，而这款车实际上是崭新的。而且我们怎么能忘记雪佛兰Blazer EV曾被评为2024年度的Motor Trends SUV呢？是的，这只是一个案例，但对于通用汽车来说，这是一个重要品牌。他们需要解决这款电动汽车的问题，而目前生产速度相当缓慢。我想他们第三季度只销售了大约18辆，所以我们拭目以待第四季度的数据会如何。
Here we have a Swedish article and specifically we have a lawyer who is an expert on collective agreements weighing in on the situation. She said now this is affecting small business owners and private individuals who have nothing to do with the dispute, saying EF Matal has gone too far. The sympathy measures hit small businesses that run taxi operations with Tesla cars, paint shops that carry out car repairs, and private individuals. She said what's the value of this Swedish model when you are exposed to trade union sympathy measures even though you yourself have a collective agreement. And she said it's dead quiet from a political point of view. In summary, I think the union damages the Swedish model more than Tesla does. I doubt this changes anything, but it's at least good to see an expert on the matter speak out against what's going on.
在这里，我们有一篇瑞典文章，特别是一位专门研究集体协议的律师对这种情况发表了评论。她表示，现在这影响到与纠纷无关的小企业主和个人，她认为 EF Matal 做得太过分了。这些同情措施打击了经营特斯拉汽车出租车服务的小企业、进行汽车维修的喷漆店以及个人。她说，当你自己有集体协议但仍受到工会同情措施的影响，那么瑞典模式还有什么价值呢？她还说，从政治角度来看，没有任何声音。总而言之，我认为工会对瑞典模式的损害比特斯拉还要大。我怀疑这并不会改变什么，但至少很高兴看到一位专家对所发生的事情发表了批评的言论。
Pretty interesting timing with this one after what we just talked about yesterday, now we have Tesla facing an inquiry by Norway's traffic safety regulator into suspension failures. For this one, a decision is expected by Christmas, but this agency has the authority to order a recall if Tesla refuses. The regulatory review in Norway was prompted by more than 10 customer reports to the agency in 2022 about suspension parts like the control arms suddenly breaking. So maybe for the last year, this regulatory agency was gathering data about the Tesla situation, but again, I just find it to be very peculiar timing.
听起来真是巧啊，就在我们昨天刚谈论过之后，现在特斯拉面临挪威交通安全监管机构对悬挂故障的调查。预计将在圣诞节前作出决定，但如果特斯拉拒绝执行，该机构有权下令召回。挪威的监管审查是因为2022年有超过10份顾客报告向该机构投诉悬挂部件（如控制臂）突然断裂。所以也许在过去的一年中，这个监管机构一直在收集有关特斯拉情况的数据，但我仍然觉得时机非常奇怪。
BMW is aiming to sell more than 500,000 EVs next year for the first time, this coming after selling 247,000 fully electric vehicles in the first nine months of this year.
宝马计划在明年首次销售超过50万辆电动汽车，此前该公司在今年前九个月销售了24.7万辆纯电动汽车。
Apple's next-gen car play is going to start its rollout with Porsche and Aston Martin vehicles in 2024. Here's a quick glimpse of the expanded UI in an Aston Martin. The theme will be distinct to each automaker and gives car play access to the vehicle's features like your radio and temperature settings. In the Porsche setup, there will be a three-dial layout with a speedometer on the left and a wallpaper made to match its houndstooth seat pattern.
苹果的下一代车载系统将从2024年开始在保时捷和阿斯顿·马丁车辆上推出。以下是阿斯顿·马丁车内扩展用户界面的一瞥。每个汽车制造商都将具有独特的主题，使车载系统能够访问车辆的功能，如收音机和温度设置。在保时捷的设置中，将采用三个转盘布局，左侧是速度表，壁纸将与其犬牙图案座椅相匹配。
In case you heard the news about that fire at a GM EV plant, now we know it was caused by a forklift that accidentally punctured a container holding battery materials. Authorities did have to request triple the usual number of firefighters and equipment, but production has already resumed at the plant as of yesterday.
如果你听说了关于那家通用电气（GM）电动汽车工厂失火的消息，现在我们知道这是由一辆叉车意外刺破了一个装有电池材料的容器导致的。当局确实不得不请求比平常多三倍的消防员和装备，但从昨天起，该工厂的生产已经恢复。
I won't play the audio due to potential copyright issues, but Tesla on X posted a video of a new light show this time featuring Cybertrucks, rolling out now in this year's holiday update.
由于潜在的版权问题，我不会播放音频，但特斯拉在X发布了一个视频，展示了今年假日更新中的一个新的灯光秀，这一次的特色是Cybertrucks正在推出。
Alright, so here's that special research report from Matt Smith and Bradford Ferguson over at Rebellioner. If you don't already know, they help Tesla investors handle their positions with all types of different strategies, so their information will be below.
好的，这是来自Rebellioner的Matt Smith和Bradford Ferguson的特别研究报告。如果你还不知道，他们帮助特斯拉的投资者运用各种不同的策略来处理他们的持仓，所以他们的信息将在下面给出。
At the very least, I'd encourage you to follow both of them on social media as they have done excellent research. This is not at all a sponsored spot or anything like that. They're just friends of the channel we sometimes talk about Tesla offline, and I wanted to learn a little bit more about this news item. Enjoy.
至少，我鼓励你在社交媒体上关注他们两个，因为他们做了很好的研究。这绝对不是一个赞助位置或任何类似的东西。他们只是我们频道的朋友，我们有时会在线下讨论特斯拉，并且我想多了解一些关于这个新闻的内容。愉快阅读。
So a few weeks ago, I noticed a tweet from Simon Mayhand who was attending the Southeast Renewables Conference in Charlotte. He had been listening to a presentation by an attorney named Keith Martin. Keith is an incredibly well regarded attorney within energy circles. He actually specializes in renewable energy financing deals, and I would say he's arguably the most informed energy lawyer at maybe the most esteemed energy-focused law firm. So a huge quantity of US energy projects pass over his desk.
所以几个星期前，我注意到西蒙·梅汉德在夏洛特参加东南再生能源会议时发推文。他刚听完一位名叫基思·马丁的律师的演讲。基思是在能源界非常受尊敬的律师。他专门从事可再生能源融资交易，并且我可以说，他可能是最知情的能源律师，所在的律师事务所也是最受推崇的以能源为重心的律师事务所。所以大量美国能源项目都会经过他的审查。
Now one of the slides from his presentation included the line, Tesla is circulating a legal opinion that its megapacks have 95% domestic content. That was the tweet from Simon, which caught my eye.
现在他的演示文稿中的一张幻灯片包含了这样一行文字：“特斯拉正在传播一份法律意见，声称其巨型电池组有95%的国内成分”。这是我注意到的Simon的推文。
So why is this important? Well, it's important because projects that meet the domestic content requirements under the IRA are eligible for a 10% bonus credit on top of the baseline 30% credit available for all projects. So this would be a very good thing for megapack demand. It's also important because it might give us some insights into Tesla's cell supply strategy. If 95% of the cost of a megapack is actually US based, then that would seem to imply that Tesla must be using cells manufactured in the United States. There's no other way to get that math to work.
为什么这一点很重要呢？因为符合IRA国内内容要求的项目可以额外获得30%基准积分之外的10%奖励积分。所以这对于强大需求的巨型电池组来说是一件非常好的事情。这也很重要，因为这可能为我们提供一些关于特斯拉电池供应策略的洞察。如果巨型电池组的成本实际上有95%是在美国制造的，那么这似乎意味着特斯拉必须使用在美国制造的电池。没有其他方法可以使这个数学计算成立。
But last we knew the cells for megapacks in Tesla's Lathrop facility were actually being provided by CATL and manufactured in China. Bradford and I thought this might be an interesting bit of information. So we put out a video where we're hoping the community could help us fill in some of the gaps.
据我们上次了解，特斯拉在拉斯罗普工厂生产的超级电池组的电池实际上是由CATL提供并在中国制造的。我和布拉德福德认为这可能是一个有趣的信息。因此，我们发布了一个视频，希望社区能帮助我们填补一些空白。
The first pushback we received was from MadManks89 on X, who is another great follow in addition to Simon Mayhan, who pointed out that there could be some legalese or definitional reasons why a megapack made with CATL cells might still technically qualify for the domestic content bonus. His point was that qualification for the ITC bonus is not particularly restrictive, noting that just final assembly of the cells needs to happen in the US.
我们收到的第一个质疑来自X上的MadManks89，他是另一个很值得关注的人，和Simon Mayhan一样。他指出，使用CATL电池制造的大容量电池组之所以在法律条文或定义上仍然可以符合国内产地奖励的条件，可能存在一些法律术语限制。他的观点是，ITC奖金的资格要求并不是特别严格，只要电池的最后组装在美国进行即可。
It's possible that this is the correct interpretation, but I do think it's worth a deeper look. Specifically, there is a table on the IRS's notice on this matter, which notes that the cells are included in the definition of a manufactured product component. So cells themselves must be manufactured in the US in order to qualify. You can't just assemble the cells into a megapack and have that count.
这种解释可能是正确的，但我认为还值得深入研究。具体来说，美国国税局关于此事的通知中有一张表格，指出电池单元被包括在制造产品组件的定义中。因此，为了符合资格，电池单元本身必须在美国制造。你不能仅仅把电池单元组装成一个巨型电池组来计算资格。
But how exactly do you determine whether the cells have been manufactured in the US? Here is the IRS guidance on the matter. And just fair note, there's a little bit of legalese here, so stick with me. A manufactured product is considered to be produced in the United States if, one, all of the manufacturing processes for the manufactured product take place in the United States, and two, all of the manufactured product components of the manufactured product are of US origin.
那么，你如何确切判断细胞是否是在美国生产的呢？以下是税务局对此问题的指导意见。请注意，这里有一些法律术语，请持续阅读。如果一个制造产品符合以下两个条件： 一，该制造产品的所有制造过程都在美国进行；二，该制造产品的所有组成部分都是美国原产的，那么它将被视为在美国生产的。
A manufactured product component is considered to be of US origin if it is manufactured in the United States, regardless of the origin of its sub-components. Now that is a lot of legalese for sure, but the key line to me is that a manufactured product component, so for our purposes, read that as cell. So a cell is considered to be of US origin if it is manufactured in the United States, regardless of the origin of its sub-components.
如果一个制造产品的组件在美国制造，那么它被认为是美国原产，而不考虑其子组件的产地。尽管这句话听起来很多法律性的，但对我来说，关键的一句是“一个制造产品的组件”，所以根据我们的目的，可以将其理解为“电池”。因此，如果一个电池在美国制造，不管其子组件的产地如何，它被认为是美国原产。
So for the Madmanx interpretation to be correct, Tesla would need to be doing some final assembly of the individual cells from CATL at Lathrop, and then further assembling those into the megapack. That's possible, but it seems like it would be a bit of a mess to be doing that with many gigawatt hours of individual cells. The Lathrop facility is not particularly large, and I'm skeptical they would have the equipment and space to handle final assembly of that many cells, unless it were some extremely basic definition of assembly.
为了使Madmanx的解释正确，特斯拉需要在拉索普进行来自CATL的个别电池的最后组装，然后进一步将其组装成超级电池组。这是可能的，但要用许多吉瓦时的个别电池来做这件事似乎有点混乱。拉索普工厂不是特别大，我对他们是否拥有设备和空间来处理那么多电池的最终组装持怀疑态度，除非这里的“组装”是一种极为基本的定义。
And if it were some superfluous amount of assembly, like putting a logo on the cells or something very small instead of, you know, actually assembling anodes and cathodes together, then it seems like this would actually open Tesla up potentially to some quite intense scrutiny or maybe even legal liability.
如果这个组装步骤是一些不必要的过程，比如只是在电池上放置一个标志或者执行一些非常小的操作，而不是真正地将阳极和阴极组装在一起，那么似乎这会给特斯拉带来相当严厉的审查甚至可能引发法律责任。
Another possibility is that Tesla isn't planning to use CATL cells in Lathrop anymore, but could be supplying megapacks with 4680 cells, either from Gigataxis or maybe even Cato Road once that facility gets back up and running.
另一个可能性是特斯拉不再计划在Lathrop使用CATL电池，而是可能使用来自Gigataxis或者甚至是Cato Road的4680电池供应Megapack。这是在Cato Road工厂恢复运营之后。
Now I have not seen any evidence of this other than Elon noting that some of the 4680 cells from the future Giganovata expansion would be used for megapacks. But the final possibility I can see is that Tesla could be moving some of the 2170 cells from Giganovata to the megapacks being assembled in Lathrop.
目前除了埃隆提到未来Giga诺瓦塔扩建计划中将使用一些4680电池，我没有见到任何证据。但我能想到的最后一种可能是特斯拉可能会将一些来自Giga诺瓦塔的2170电池转移到在拉索普组装的超级电池组中。
This could make sense, and it does seem to track with another bit of news we heard recently, which is that Model 3 will no longer be eligible for the $7,500 tax credit. So could it be that the cells which had been supplying the Model 3 are now supplying megapack? And so that's why this Model 3 is not eligible for the credit anymore, but the megapack is. And the cells which had been supplying the megapack are now in the Model 3.
这可能是有道理的，并且似乎与我们最近听到的另一条消息相吻合，即Model 3将不再有资格获得7500美元的税收抵免。所以可能是那些原本供应给Model 3的电池现在供应给megapack了吗？所以这就是为什么这个Model 3不再有资格获得税收抵免，而megapack有。而原本供应给megapack的电池现在则用于Model 3了。
I'm not sure, and I'm certainly not an attorney, but I do think there are some interesting implications brought about by this piece of news. And even if it turns out that Tesla's megapack cells are in fact still being supplied by CATL, this is still good news for Tesla in my mind, because they are able to demonstrate the 95% domestic content for their megapacks, which does make the economics more attractive for their customers.
我不确定，而且我绝对不是一名律师，但我认为这则新闻带来了一些有意思的影响。即使后来证明特斯拉的超级电池组实际上仍然由CATL供应，对我来说这仍然是好消息，因为他们能够证明其超级电池组中有95%的国内内容，这使得经济效益对他们的客户更具吸引力。
I hope you found this information helpful. If you're interested in hearing more about this topic, you can check out the video Bradford and I did with Jordan Geecidi on this topic at our Rebellionary YouTube channel. And if you're interested in working with a financial advisor who understands Tesla as well as you do and wants to help you grow your shares instead of selling down to get to some diversified amount, you can find some more information at Rebellionary.com.
我希望你觉得这些信息对你有帮助。如果你对这个话题还想了解更多，你可以在我们的Rebellionary YouTube频道观看我和Bradford与Jordan Geecidi讨论这个话题的视频。如果你有兴趣与一个了解特斯拉并希望帮助你增加股份而不是卖出去达到某个多元化数量的财务顾问合作，你可以在Rebellionary.com找到更多的信息。
Thanks. Don't forget, check out Ground News, linked below. In my humble opinion, it's absolutely a mission worth supporting.
谢谢。不要忘记，看一看下面链接的Ground News。以我卑微的观点来说，这绝对是一项值得支持的使命。
Hope you guys have a wonderful day. Please like the video. If you did, you can find me on X, linked below. And a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.
希望大家有一个美好的一天。如果你喜欢这个视频，请点赞。如果你喜欢，你可以在下方的链接找到我。还要特别感谢所有支持我的Patreon支持者们。