Hey everybody Rob Maer here and today we actually have a lot going on. We have a Tesla bot update, actually a pretty quick one after the last one with a lot of progress from Tesla. So we'll talk about that. We've got the FOMC meeting. We've got EV tax credit changes in terms of how interpretations are being made for Tesla and quite a few other items. We had a big recall from Tesla today, which over the air software update, but actually some interesting details on that as well. So lots to go through.
Tesla stock up 1% on the day to day, closing at $239.29. Still a bit of an underperformance to the NASDAQ up 1.4%, but less of a trail than we saw from Tesla early on in the day. If we look at the charts for both, you can see the NASDAQ mostly flat throughout the day, Tesla down around 2 o'clock Eastern time with the FOMC statement release. This is when things changed for the day and continued through close. So we've got to talk about that.
If we look at the FOMC meeting statement, here is the previous meeting in November. Here is the statement now from December. And you can see they changed the language here to say recent indicators suggest that economic activity expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter. Now to read that recent indicators suggest that the growth of economic activity has slowed from its strong pace in the third quarter. Right when I read that, I knew the market would be up by that, which is counterintuitive, but with slowing economic activity, that means a greater chance of declining interest rates. The market at this point in time is going to prefer that. Of course, because the economic data is already there, the interpretation of from the Fed of how that affects their interest rate decisions is what the market is going to be looking at from a statement like this. They also added that inflation has eased over the past year, but remains elevated. Previously that statement just said remains elevated. So again, more language there that would indicate more likelihood of cutting rates if inflation is better controlled. And they said in determining the extent of any additional policy firming, though, you know, taking into account things that they've done so far, the any was added there. That was not previously in the previous statement. So again, that makes it a little bit more likely that they are heading toward rate cuts rather than continuing to increase.
On that piece, Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his press conference did say that they are likely at or near peak for this cycle, but they don't want to take the possibility of rate hikes off the table when he was asked about the addition of that any. He said really they're seeing strong growth moderating. They're seeing labor market conditions coming back into balance and inflation making real progress said, quote, these are the things we've been wanting to see and quote. So with that in combination with this statement here, they also released their summary of economic projections or SEP. We'll just look at the dot plot. We don't need to go through everything here, but this is one of the first things that people are going to be looking at as well when the statement comes out. We get these quarterly.
So here is the September version of the dot plot. This is interest rate expectations from each committee member by year. So if you look 2024, maybe they were expecting around five or five and a quarter to be the rate that they were at. They at that time expected for the rate increases in 2023. Now the axes here are the same. So you can see how these dots have shifted course. Now we're through 2023. This last meeting for the year, but you can see expectations for both 2024 and 2025 dropped by call it half a basis point or sorry, half a percent around 50 basis points in terms of where those expectations are coming in at. So that's basically highlighting a further expectation from committee members that rates will be cut in 2024, which we're heading into now.
If we look at one more thing that came out this morning, the producer price index, those came in a little bit below expectations across the board. You can see roughly one to two, you know, 10 to 20 basis points in terms of how those actuals came in versus estimates. So with all of this new data today, we look at the CME Group FedWatch tool and look at rate expectations. We're on March right now. So it's two meetings from now, but you can see expectations for a rate cut by that point in time have increased now to about 85% from previously sitting around 40%.
So it shows the impact of the FOMC meeting today in the comments, as well as the PPI report, but mostly, I think the kind of the dot plot here that we're seeing. So basically the Fed kind of happy with where things are. They're of course going to say that they're going to wait and see and interpret data as it comes in as they have been saying consistently, but more devilish, I guess, in terms of where interest rates are going to go going forward. So the market likes that. And that's why we saw this spike here and that kind of continuing throughout close. So that's going to be a key thing, you know, over the next long time, but shifting into Tesla specific news, we got a very exciting update here from the Tesla Optimus account on X. Say there's a new bot in town.
So even though we just had a Tesla bot update not too long ago, Tesla is now introducing the next generation hardware for the Tesla bot. So this video is really dedicated to showcasing what this next generation hardware can do. The last video update that we had talked about was more about the training process and how the bot was interpreting the world with its software with neural networks and things like that. This is more of a hardware demonstration, I think. So they say introducing the generation to Optimus here. And already we can see some things that we have not seen previously with the Tesla bot.
So really cool to just see these hands in motion, you can see the actuation on the neck, which we have not previously seen as a reminder, what we had been looking at before from Tesla bot was gen one, which was this version. So already a huge step forward in terms of just the look of the Tesla bot matching more to the original unveiling. This is much, much closer. We're seeing some cool features added like the little LED around the head or face area there, which Tesla may have plans for that to kind of indicate things for the Tesla bot in the future. So kind of cool to see something like that. And just overall a smoother design. This is the version that I assume would be built with Teslas in-house actuators. They had said I think on the Q3 earnings call might have been Q2, that they were very close to putting that into production with the Tesla bot.
So you can see the smoothness in the hands there, very lifelike, very human like. You can see the walk speed and this isn't sped up or anything like from this playback here. You can see the walk speed improved 30%. Again, much, much smoother. And if you compare this to, I think, AI day two when Tesla had the bots on stage and it was tethered and things like that, this is night and day in a very short period of time. The progress that Tesla has made here. So really exciting to see this. This one I love. It's just again a shot of the hands in motion. You can just see the dexterity, the fluidity of all those things. And then Tesla doing a nice demo here of the bot handling an egg, showing the touch capacity of the fingers there, the interpretation of what it's sensing, the force and things like that and the pressure. Then they say stay tuned to see what Optimus will do next. And then there was a little bit of an Easter egg after that egg video with the bots dancing here at the end. Maybe a little bit of a call back to the original unveiling of the idea of the Tesla bot, which of course had someone in a Tesla bot suit doing a little bit of a dance. Then they kind of pointed the camera there at the end too, which is kind of fun.
So overall, just really cool to see this update on the Tesla bot. And again, I think the pace of progress that we're seeing here on the Tesla bot is tremendous. I think this is something that is underappreciated, not that it's a should necessarily carry hundreds of billions of dollars of market cap value right now, but the implication or the possibility for that kind of value in the future should be understood, should be discussed. And I think the Tesla community is doing that. But beyond that, I think it's largely written off as some sort of hope and dream that is never going to materialize. But if the rate of progress on the hardware that we're seeing here continues, if the rate of progress on the software with neural networks, if that continues as well, there's a lot to be excited about with Optimus. And I'm glad Tesla is sharing these things with us as they progress. In particular, the hands, I think, just are so impressive. So exciting to see this, exciting to just watch this journey and we'll look forward to more from Tesla.
They do also say a couple of Tesla engineers here saying that they're with this video, everything was done in real time. So the previous video, it did have a little bit of speeding up. Tesla did indicate that just to be clear, but it did have a little bit of that. This is all real time speed. And they say that this is not any CGI or anything like that. So all just, you know, shots of the Tesla bot. Now, they could have done those demos, of course, many times to get out the footage, but important that it is, you know, real no CGI again. Nope, didn't mean to highlight that. All right.
So exciting there for the Tesla bot. We'll move on. We do have a few other updates here on the tax credit situation for Tesla. This has been something that's been a little bit in flux over the last few months as people try to understand interpretations of this legislation. I think those interpretations and the guidance around those interpretations has changed a couple of times just in recent weeks.
It's kind of frustrating that it is, you know, we're coming up in the year end now just a few weeks away from significant changes and how the structure works, both from a point of sale perspective, from the battery materials perspective, all those sort of things. Those changes take effect in the new year.
So Tesla's been waiting to get clarified guidance on some of these things, how they impact Tesla's lineup. Looks like they've gotten some of that guidance today. They announced on X that unfortunately the federal $7,500 EV tax credit will end entirely for model three real wheel drive in long range delivered after December 31st. Of course, that is a strong incentive to if you're looking for that tax credit to order before then. They also of course are now highlighting that on the delivery page or the order page for the model three.
With the model three, of course, we know that as we head into the new year, we are expecting some sort of an update to the Highland Model three at Fremont at some point. With this change happening, I would expect that Tesla decides to do that in Q one. That was already my expectation, but certainly that that would make sense because you're going to have people pulling forward some demand on the model three to try to take advantage of this tax credit before it ends.
And you're going to have people that are then so that's going to pull forward some demand and then you're going to have people that are of course waiting for the Highland update, which is already affecting model three, I think. So that's just the perfect time to do it. It's really if just just if Tesla can execute it because they now have this understanding of how these tax credits are going to affect these vehicles seems to particularly affect the LFP or lithium iron phosphate battery packs. We could see them decide to make some changes in terms of how the Highland Model three will work and where those batteries are coming from to maybe try to maximize this tax credit.
It's a good time for this to change because without any other changes, the Model three compared to the Model Y with a tax credit was going to be kind of a weird positioning. So Tesla's going to have to kind of figure that out. Otherwise you potentially have a Model Y for cheaper than a Model three. That kind of makes it a little bit difficult to sell Model three. Certainly some people will prefer that form factor, but arguably the Model Y is, you know, a more valuable vehicle with its size and a little bit more utility.
So positioning for the Model three is tough, but I think Highland will help that. And this gives Tesla an opportunity as they are going to sort of reset the lineup anyway to maybe think about that in terms of how this all comes together post Highland update in the US. So I don't want to belabor that point too long, but Tesla, you know, I think we'll I think we'll probably see some changes in just in terms of how this line up is structured with the Model three. Of course, the performance would still be eligible because that would be the, you know, the different batteries. So how that will work is still a little bit unclear. Tesla has added some language in the detailed view of the tax credit situation here to say that reductions are likely after December 31st on the Model Y page here. And I did double check that that is a little bit different than what they say on the Model three details, which specifically says that they'll end for those long range and rear wheel drive versions. So this does seem to indicate that Tesla does still expect some reductions for the full $7,500 tax credit to be reduced a bit on the Model Y as well.
Not as clear in this case on the Model Y. And of course, we have seen a 4680 Model Y before, which should be fully eligible for the tax credit. That is not currently the case with the Model Y lineup. So a lot of uncertainty. Unfortunately, it would be nice. Again, if that was a little bit further planned out or made clear a little bit further out, but we'll see how Tesla adapts to it because obviously that can be pretty impactful.
All right, moving on, we do have a new incentive from Tesla. This is in partnership with Uber. So this is for Uber drivers. They can potentially get up to $3,000 off when they buy a new Tesla vehicle before the end of the year. Now that discount amount depends on their status as an Uber driver. So blue and gold drivers receive $1,000 off, platinum drivers $2,000 off, diamond drivers $3,000 off.
I don't know if this credit is provided by Tesla, Uber, or some combination of the two of them. And it's not exactly clear if this credit is something that happens at the point of sale or afterwards. But my take from the language here, they say that's, I mean, I guess it is kind of clear here, but they say the Tesla incentives will be electronically transferred to the drivers registered. Uber account within 30 days of the driver completing all the requirements of this promotion, as set forth in terms of incentives awarded on the Uber platform are taxable income to the recipient and subjects that said 99 NEC reporting.
So one of the stipulations is they just have to complete 100 trips by February 15. So once they do that, then they get this credit, which means that I believe the inventory discounts that show up when you were to go through to the Tesla order page. And though this $3,000 potentially stacks on top of that, and then of course you've got the tax credit and stuff too. So should be a pretty compelling promotion for Uber drivers that are interested in this to take advantage of it before the end of the year. And again, I don't know if that is supplied fully by Tesla or some sort of a partnership, but a little bit new structure and center structure that we have not seen previously.
All right. Next up, we've got a pretty exciting announcement from Best Western here. Not something I expected to really say, but exciting announcement from Best Western, they are going to be adding universal wall, excuse me, universal wall connectors from Tesla at selected hotels across North America. So this is going to begin in 2024. This of course will offer much greater access to charging for Tesla, destination charging style access for Tesla vehicles and for third parties with this being the universal wall connector.
This is very similar to the announcement that we heard from Hilton. So we talked about this back in September. They said that they're installing up to 20,000 of these at 2000 hotels. Unfortunately, Best Western doesn't give us those specific numbers in their press release, but it's worth noting that they do have approximately 43 4300 hotels in 100 countries worldwide. So I don't know the split between North America and worldwide, but it's of a similar magnitude as that Hilton announcement, at least in terms of the number of hotels they have. We just don't know on the exact exact number of chargers. Still exciting to see this.
When we heard this Hilton announcement at the time, we talked about how this might put pressure on other hotel chains to do the same. This further adds to that pressure as well as just being another step in that process. So very exciting to see that more access always better.
Okay. Next, we've got an update on Gigamexico, millennia today reporting that the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources has now authorized the change of land use designation for the Gigamexico site area. So exciting to see that. We had previously had, I think, state approval. There was, you know, you need state and federal approval. So this would be the federal approval. The governor of New York, who we often hear from, has said that they can now start their plant. Now that doesn't mean that Tesla will start that immediately. Of course, that is still up to Tesla's discretion. But for this step to be out of the way is definitely exciting. It just means that when Tesla is ready to take that step, things should hopefully move pretty quickly from that point forward. So good to see that regarding Gigamexico.
Over in Gigamexico, we've got a great flight, great drone flavor here from Joe Tegmeyer spotting 23 different cyber trucks here outside of the factory. I think this is the biggest number that we've seen so far. Also noted that these do appear to have them in Roni stickers in the sort of dash here, which would likely indicate that these are vehicles that would be eventually delivered to customers, vehicles for sale. So exciting to see these. Hopefully we'll continue to see these in future drone flavors and hopefully bigger and bigger groupings of cyber trucks going forward. But nice to see that sign of hopefully, hopefully a sign of progress in the ramp.
And also relating to cyber truck, the car wow, cyber truck review is now out. It looked like they just had a little bit of time to drive it around and test some things at Gigatexas, but about a 25 minute long review here. Good to hear their thoughts. Obviously one of the bigger car review channels. So they opened it up just trying to try to damage the cyber truck here or I guess more accurately showing that it was not easily damaged. Just the whole crew kind of kicking the vehicle as hard as they could. So just showing off some of the impressive exterior strength. We had heard a little bit about some of the potential sharpness in some of these panels. So Matt here was running his hands across it saying that it's rounded off and it wasn't cutting him or anything like that. So that's a good contrast to some of the other comments that we had heard about that potentially being something that would happen. You can see here a little bit of a view of the backspace. So this is with the cyber truck passenger seat slid forward, but I don't think we had seen a view of that yet. But you can see just how much space that that potentially grants if there isn't somebody occupying that front passenger seat. He said it's like a limousine for him back there. So he enjoyed that. We got a nice little comparison of the loaded or the load capacity in terms of volume for the bed. So you can see 2800 liters for the Tesla cyber truck versus 800 liters for the Rivian R1T, 1000 liters for the EV Hummer, 1500 liters for the Ford F-150 lighting. So almost double the best case performance from these other trucks, EV trucks in terms of just the volume capability there in the bed. So nice to see those comparisons. And then just a couple of negative things he did point out that just getting into the vehicle, there wasn't, you know, with the the sill here, there wasn't really a great way of avoiding that for getting in. So he noted that his legs were getting dirty if he was wearing pants that those would have maybe been dirty from from getting in. Obviously, it's it's a little bit of a minor detail, but something that he noted. He also noted the rear camera was for the vehicle they were driving was quite dirty, just based on, you know, dust and things like that kicking back up into it. So a couple of minor things there. But overall, he recommended this as a buy for, you know, his conclusion of the review. He said he's going to do his best to order one and try to get try to get one over to the UK somehow. So we'll see if he's able to accomplish that, but overall very positive towards the cyber truck.
All right. Next up, we've got a recall today, quote unquote recall, right? This is another over the air update that gets reported as a recall. If we go to the top here, try to get back to my place, but you can see two million vehicles. So of course, that drives a lot of headlines. This is relating to the ongoing for quite some time, you know, quote unquote investigation from NHTSA into autopilot. So we've talked about this on a number of different occasions dating back to August of 2021. It's it opened a preliminary evaluation. That's usually one of the items that spawns eventual recalls like this. So preliminary evaluation into autopilot. Remember this related to stationary first responder vehicles on highways. They were wondering if there was an outsized frequency of Tesla colliding with those type of vehicles, potentially due to autopilot and any of things that could be updated to fix there. They eventually upgraded that to an engineering analysis. So sort of the second stage of an investigation, which we had talked about at that time. And now we're seeing the final result from from these reviews and these investigations. So this is a multi year thing that is now being resolved. Actually thinking that's more of a positive that this is something that has been hanging out there for so long that is now sort of coming to an end with this resolution.
And what the resolution is specifically, Tesla is going to be, I'll come back to that one.
具体来说,特斯拉在这个问题上的解决方案是什么,我会在稍后回答。
Oh, we'll go to this first. So before we get to the resolution, they just note that some of the issues are that in certain circumstances when auto steers engaged, the prominence and scope of the features controls may not be sufficient to prevent driver misuse of the SAE of L2 advanced driver assistance feature. So you know, basically just that they may may be unprepared to intervene fail to recognize that the features canceled are not engaged or fail to recognize when the features operating in situations where it's functionality may be limited.
So to resolve what the conclusion is that this is an issue, what they are doing is depending on the vehicle hardware, the additional controls that they're implementing will include increasing the prominence of visual alerts on the user interface, simplifying engagement and disengagement of auto steer, additional checks upon engaging auto steer.
And while using the feature outside controlled access highways and when approaching traffic controls and eventual suspension from auto steer, use if the driver repeatedly fails to demonstrate continuous and sustained driving responsibility while the feature is engaged. So of these, I think the most notable one in terms of the user experience is probably going to be this additional checks upon engaging auto steer and while using the feature, just to, you know, that's the sort of thing that we see from from the nags as well as potentially the please pay attention notices. If your eyes aren't, you know, from the camera, if the camera's perception of your eyes isn't that they are focused on the road, then you get those sort of warnings. So that seems to be the fix in terms of what this over there update will do. Just in certain circumstances kind of increase those, those types of monitoring type of checks.
So as an autopilot user as an FSD user, though this relates specifically to autopilot, I think many people find those nags to be annoying. That's I guess part of the intent of them. It is kind of frustrating though because I do think the eye monitoring, at least for the FSD version of the software is so good that the nag feels pretty redundant and unnecessary. So to have both of them be required is a little bit annoying when I think the eye tracking does does well. But apparently, NHTSA and Tesla have kind of come to this agreement that this is is the resolution. So Tesla did say that they don't necessarily I don't think I have it highlighted here, but they did say that they don't necessarily agree with it, but just to resolve this. Yeah, so here we go. While not concurring with the agency's analysis and the interest of resolving this engineering analysis up here, they Tesla's determined on December 5th to voluntarily administer a recall and provide the remedy described below that we just walked through. So a little bit of a, you know, of a middle, middleing solution here, I think in terms of how how it benefits the customers or, you know, how it relates to Tesla. On one hand, great to have this now resolved. On the other hand, hopefully this doesn't become, you know, sort of overbearing in terms of the monitoring requirements. And unfortunately, we'll just have to kind of wait and see how those changes impact the user experience. So we'll keep an eye out for that, but ultimately, I think positive to have this matter hopefully, at least for a while, probably not forever. But hopefully for a while kind of puts a bit.
All right, last item for today, Bloomberg today reporting that Elon Musk is founding a school called the foundation in Texas. So there is an IRS filing that actually gives us quite a few details on the school. I'm going to have to remember my notes here. There's a lot of paperwork, but in terms of, let's see.
So this one I had highlighted because the school initially is going to be a primary school, a primary and secondary school. And then it could they ultimately intend to expand it to a university. So it'll start there as kind of a small primary school. And then over time is something that could grow into being a full university, which would be, you know, pretty significant. This part of the filing says that the school, when it becomes a university, would be doing world class research. And to that end, will develop intellectual property as part of its research and educational functions. So I thought that point in particular showed the sort of scale of aspirations of what the school eventually hopes to become, which is obviously pretty significant if they are saying that this would be doing world class research, which would have an IP rights. So kind of interesting to see that we can see that this was funded a hundred million dollars worth.
I don't know exactly when that funding would have been, you know, given to the school, it looks like that happened within the tax year from July of last year to June this year. And then you can see some expected funding amounts for the next couple of years. Looks like about 15 million dollars there. Let's see.
Again, bear with me as I remember my notes here. But one thing that was interesting, they had to fill this out within 27 months of the end of the month in which the entity was formed. So if we look a little bit closer at the filing, we can see that this entity was formed that will eventually become the school was in October of 2021. We go back to Elon's posts around that time, October 29th versus the filing on October 18th. October 29th, Elon said he's thinking of starting in the new university, of course, Texas Institute of Technology and Science. We don't know if that will end up being the name. It still could be on the table. Of course, this was the name of this LLC, which will become the school is the foundation. So that could be the school or the school name could of course still be to be determined, which this could be one possible option that obviously Elon was considering at the time this formation happened.
So interesting to see this, it does seem like this is getting very close to happening. They actually have their student body lined up for the next year. I believe that's their fiscal year too. And that starts, it looked like in June. So they have 50 students lined up already. All the students would be on scholarship as indicated here. But it looks like this is something that is happening pretty soon. And they again, already have those students kind of selected. So we'll keep an eye on this. It'll be an interesting thing to follow, I think, in the future as it seems again, that they have pretty big aspirations for it.
All right. Long one today, as I said, we had a lot of news, but that'll wrap it up for today. As always, thank you for listening. Make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications. You can also find me on the X at Tesla podcast. And we'll see you tomorrow for the Thursday, December 14th episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.