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Tesla Fights Back Against Media, China Sales Updates, Cybertruck

发布时间 2023-12-13 01:39:07    来源
Hey everybody RobMower here and today we are going to be talking about some pushback from Tesla on a media report. We've also got updated information out of China, some news on batteries, and a few other items as well.
大家好,这里是RobMower。今天我们将谈论特斯拉对媒体报道的一些反驳意见。我们还有来自中国的最新信息,一些有关电池的消息,还有其他几个项目。

Tesla stock was down again today 1.1% to close at $237.01, an Aztec up 7.10% of a percent on the day. We didn't see the same distribution of gains in the Aztec that we saw yesterday with mega caps underperforming. It was a little bit more mixed today. Tesla and Google down but the rest of the bigger market cap companies were up.
今天特斯拉股票再次下跌1.1%,收于237.01美元,阿兹特克股指上涨了7.10%。与昨天表现强劲的大型股票不同,阿兹特克股指的涨幅没有出现相同的分布情况。今天的行情略微复杂一些,特斯拉和谷歌股票下跌,但其他市值较大的公司股票上涨。

Before market opened today as we talked about the consumer price index or CPI report for November was released. Largely in line with expectations as we can see recap from Bloomberg here. Year over year was up 3.1% in line with expectations. Core up 4% year over year also in line with expectations. The only difference between expectations was the month of a month change for the headline number up 1.10% versus estimates of flat.
今天市场开盘前,我们谈到了11月消费者价格指数(CPI)报告的发布。正如我们在这里从彭博社回顾的情况,这一报告基本符合预期。与预期一致,同比增长了3.1%。同比核心指数也增长了4%,也与预期一致。唯一与预期不同的是总体数值的环比变化,上涨了1.10%,而预期是持平。

As such no major changes in expectations for the FOMC meeting tomorrow with that interest rate decision coming. Markets are saying there's a little bit of a possibility of an increase but largely expecting a continuation of a rate pause and then eventual rate cuts sometime around March or May next year. Any reaction to that FOMC meeting tomorrow will mostly be determined based off of what the statement says and what Fed Chair Jerome Powell says in the press conference afterwards.
因此,对于即将举行的FOMC会议,市场对利率决策并没有太大的预期变化。市场表示存在稍微加息的可能性,但主要预期是继续保持利率不变,并在明年3月或5月左右最终进行降息。对于明天的FOMC会议的任何反应,主要将取决于声明和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在之后的新闻发布会上说了什么。

Let's start off with some China data here. We have updated insured vehicle numbers for the last week. This is for December 4th through the 10th and the numbers did decline a little bit week over week but still a very nice number 15,400 vehicles from Tesla and shared. Again this was only about 3000 Model 3s. We know weekly production on the Model 3 has been well above that level so Tesla mostly exporting those at the moment. We'll see if that changes in the last few weeks but this now puts the quarter through 10 weeks at about 120,000 vehicles insured. Continuing to improve the trend versus prior quarters this is up 7% from Q3 quarter to date, 36% from Q2 and 8% from Q1. With three weeks left in the quarter Tesla has about 40,000 vehicles to go to set a quarterly insured vehicle record. So about 13,000 per week based on how the last few weeks have come in that certainly seems possible plus the potential upside of higher Model 3 numbers and remember Tesla had previously announced that the Model Y standard range version was sold out for the rest of the year. So depending on Tesla's export strategy for the Model Y it looks like the strength in those numbers could continue as well. So nice insured vehicle numbers for Tesla and China.
让我们从一些中国数据开始讨论。我们更新了上周的被保障车辆数量。这指的是12月4日至12月10日的数据,与上周相比,数量稍微下降了一点,但仍然是一个非常好的数字,特斯拉和共享车辆总共有15,400辆。其中大约有3,000辆是Model 3。我们知道Model 3的每周产量远远超过了这个水平,所以特斯拉目前主要是出口这些车辆。我们将看看最后几周是否会有所改变,但目前已经有120,000辆车接受了保险,这使得本季度已经过去的10个星期的保险数比之前的季度有了进一步的提升,比第三季度同期增长了7%,比第二季度增长了36%,比第一季度增长了8%。在本季度还剩下三个星期的时间,特斯拉还需要再有大约40,000辆车才能打破季度保险车辆的纪录。所以基于过去几周的情况,每周大约需要达到13,000辆,这当然是可能的,而且还可能有更高的Model 3数量,还要记住特斯拉此前宣布Model Y标准续航版在今年其余时间内已售罄。因此,根据特斯拉对Model Y的出口策略,这些数字的增长势头可能会继续。所以特斯拉在中国的被保障车辆数据非常不错。

I did also want to return to the wholesale and retail sales as well as production for China. We had talked about a report of production previously and now have had a chance to verify that report. So Giga Shanghai production for November was indeed 90,800 vehicles, a record for Giga Shanghai all time. That's fantastic to see. And then I do now have the precise split between Model 3 and Model Y. The Model 3 number was a little bit lower, Model Y a little bit higher than the estimates previously. So a bit over 32,000 for the Model 3, a little bit over 58,000 for the Model Y. For the Model 3 we had previously thought the number was going to be a record production number for the Model 3. It didn't quite hit that. November last year was just a couple hundred units higher but very close and still a tremendous number of course this close to the refresh of the Model 3. We've also got the split between Model 3 and Model Y filled in therefore retail or domestic sales and exports but no major surprises there as we've had a pretty good feel for that from the insured vehicle numbers.
我也希望回到中国的批发和零售销售以及生产领域。我们之前谈到了一份生产报告,现在有机会验证该报告。所以上海超级工厂在11月的生产量确实达到了90,800辆,这是上海超级工厂有史以来的最高纪录。这太棒了。现在我也知道了Model 3和Model Y之间的具体分配比例。Model 3的数字略低于预期,而Model Y的数字略高于预期。Model 3的数量略高于32,000辆,Model Y的数量略高于58,000辆。之前我们认为Model 3的数量将创下纪录,但实际上并没有达到那个水平。去年11月的产量只比这个数字高了几百辆,非常接近,特别是考虑到Model 3刷新前的时间点,这仍然是一个惊人的数字。我们还填补了Model 3和Model Y之间的分配比例,因此了解了零售或国内销售以及出口的情况,但并没有什么大的意外,因为我们从投保车辆数量已经有了很好的了解。

Alright next up we've got a story on autopilot and specifically Tesla pushing back on a media report from the Washington Post around autopilot. So a little bit of public relations efforts from Tesla something a lot of people have asked for since this has not been a focus for Tesla in recent years and those efforts have varied over time but in this case Tesla pushing back and providing a lot of details against this Washington Post report. So for those that didn't see this this was a couple of days ago.
好了,接下来我们要谈的是关于自动驾驶和特斯拉针对华盛顿邮报关于自动驾驶的一篇报道进行反驳的故事。这是特斯拉为公众关系做出的一些努力,这是很多人近年来一直期盼的,特斯拉在这方面的努力多有不同。但在这个案例中,特斯拉进行了反击,并提供了很多细节来驳斥华盛顿邮报的报道。所以对于那些没有看到这条新闻的人来说,这是几天前的事情了。

Probably something we normally would have covered there's not really anything new in it but I actually have to admit that I didn't even see it until Tesla had posted this. Good example of a little bit of this dry sand effect there but again in my opinion not really news from the Washington Post more of an opinion piece about autopilot and some restrictions that they seem to be in favor of or suggesting should be enforced upon Tesla particularly around drivers having the ability to choose when or when not to operate autopilot.
可能是我们通常会涵盖的内容,里面并没有什么新的东西,但我不得不承认,直到特斯拉发布这个之前,我甚至都没有看到它。这是一个很好的例子,展示了一点干燥沙漠效应,但在我看来,这并不是《华盛顿邮报》的新闻,更像是关于自动驾驶系统的观点文章,提到了一些他们似乎支持或建议对特斯拉进行强制限制,尤其是关于驾驶员是否有权选择何时使用自动驾驶系统。

So as we have seen done countless times now over the years the article highlights instances of crashes that had autopilot associated with them. They highlight one in particular I think mostly an attempt to drum up a motion obviously any car crash is going to be something that is potentially devastating very sad situation no matter what the circumstances are. So they write about that and then they say what seems to be the essence of the article writing quote in all the post has identified about 40 fatal or serious crashes since 2016 involving Tesla driver assistant software the bulk of them were identified through NHTSA's data and the rest surfaced through lawsuits. Many occurred on controlled access highways but at least eight occurred on roads where autopilot was not designed to be used end quote.
正如我们多年来已经看到过无数次的那样,这篇文章突出了与自动驾驶相关的事故。他们特别强调其中一起事故,我认为这主要是为了引起议论,显然任何车祸都有可能是一个潜在的毁灭性、非常悲伤的情况,无论其背景如何。所以他们写道,并且引用了文章写作的核心观点:“自2016年以来,总共发生了约40起涉及特斯拉驾驶员辅助软件的致命或严重事故,其中大部分是通过NHTSA的数据进行确定的,其余通过诉讼浮出水面。许多事故发生在受控通行的高速公路上,但至少有八起事故发生在不适合使用自动驾驶的道路上。”

Again the argument seems to be around that saying that because these crashes occurred there should be enforcement on autopilot being able to be activated or not being able to be activated in certain circumstances which of course is already the case but they presented in a way that suggests it should be more heavily enforced more restricted. As usual with these types of articles there is very little thought given to trying to normalize data or to provide any sort of a counterpoint at all so Tesla stepping in and giving a bit of the other side of the story on X.
再次,争论似乎围绕着这样的说法,即由于发生了这些事故,应该对自动驾驶的启用或在某些情况下禁用进行执法,当然这已经是现实情况,但他们提出的方式表明它应该得到更严格的执法和限制。和这类文章一样,很少有人试图对数据进行归一化处理或提供任何反方观点,所以特斯拉介入并在某个方面提出了与此相反的故事。

Tesla highlights some of the autopilot safety statistics that they have shared over the years we've talked about those many times. I think those are inconclusive because they don't seem to control for the type of driving that autopilot is handling versus the general crash rate for all vehicles. Various things like that so it's helpful to have that context but it's not an inarguable point on Tesla side. I think more admissible in this instance are some details that Tesla shared about this crash that the Washington Post was highlighting which comes from court testimony. They say the driver later testified in the litigation he knew autopilot didn't make the car self-driving and he was the driver contrary to the post and angular claims that he was misled over reliant or complacent. He readily and repeatedly admitted I was highly aware that it was still my responsibility to operate the vehicle safely and he agreed it was his responsibility as the driver of the vehicle even with autopilot activated to drive safely and be in control of the vehicle at all times.
特斯拉强调了他们多年来分享的一些自动驾驶安全统计数据,我们之前已经多次谈论过这些。我认为这些数据并不具有说服力,因为它们似乎没有考虑到自动驾驶处理的行驶类型与所有车辆的一般碰撞率之间的差异。诸如此类的事情,所以有这种背景信息是有帮助的,但从特斯拉方面来说,并不是一个不容争议的观点。我认为在这种情况下更为可信的是特斯拉在这起事故中提供的一些细节,这些细节是《华盛顿邮报》在法庭作证中提到的。他们表示,这名驾驶员后来在诉讼中作证说,他知道自动驾驶并不能使汽车完全自动驾驶,他是驾驶员,与《华盛顿邮报》和某些观点声称的被误导、过度依赖或麻痹不同。他坦然且反复承认,我非常清楚我仍然有责任安全驾驶,他同意即使启用了自动驾驶,作为车辆的驾驶员,他有责任始终安全驾驶并控制车辆。

There is this persistent attempt to frame crashes like this as the responsibility of Tesla as though drivers are getting into these cars that are just using basic autopilot and somehow assuming that they are fully autonomous which I don't recall ever hearing of one time a driver say that they thought that because even if you overlook the numerous warnings that Tesla gives that clarifies those details it's just obvious. Now full self-driving is a little bit different but again here we're talking about just basic autopilot. Anyway finally Tesla highlights that the post also failed to disclose that autopilot restricted the vehicle speed to 45 miles per hour in this case the speed limit based on the road type but the driver was pressing the accelerator to maintain 60 miles per hour when he ran the stop sign and caused the crash. Of course when you're doing that Tesla shows a warning on the screen that says autopilot will not break because the accelerator is pressed so finding Tesla responsible for this I just I don't understand that train of thought.
有一种持续不断的尝试将这类事故归咎于特斯拉,仿佛驾驶员上了这些仅使用基本自动驾驶的汽车时,会认为它们是完全自主的。我不记得有过一次驾驶员说过他们是这样认为的,即使你忽视特斯拉提供的大量澄清细节的警告,这都是显而易见的。完全自主驾驶另当别论,但这里我们只谈论基本的自动驾驶。总之,特斯拉最后强调,这篇文章还未透露的是在这种情况下,自动驾驶限制了车辆的速度为每小时45英里,即基于道路类型的速限,但驾驶员则按下油门维持车速在每小时60英里,结果闯过了停车标志造成了事故。当然,在这种情况下特斯拉屏幕上会显示一个警告,说明由于油门被踩住,自动驾驶不会刹车。因此我真的不理解为什么会追究特斯拉的责任。

In general it boils down to how much regulation there should be on technology if technology can be possibly misused in a way that is harmful should nobody get to use that technology anymore because if that's the case well we have to say goodbye to a lot of the things that we use every day. Anyway at this point I think it's a topic that has been sufficiently beaten to death but I am glad to see that Tesla is putting the effort to provide some counterpoints to articles like this.
总的来说,问题归结于科技应该受到多少监管。如果科技可能被恶意利用造成伤害,那么是否应该禁止人们再使用这项技术呢?如果是这种情况,那我们就得告别很多我们每天使用的东西了。无论如何,目前我认为这个话题已经被讨论得足够多了,不过很高兴看到特斯拉正在努力提供一些对这类文章的反驳观点。

Alright, moving on from that we've got some further coverage of a reported whistleblower from back in May when the handles blad had reported that a former Tesla service technician in Norway had passed over 100 gigabytes of data that this person had saved down from Tesla. With the opinion that much of this data was too widely accessible within the organization since then I think even before the whistleblower came out but certainly since Tesla has implemented changes within their data policies but nevertheless this is showing up again today from a report from the Telegraph which says that the whistleblower has written the information commissioner's office in the UK warning that personnel in China or Russia could access the data creating a quote-unquote significant security risk Tesla is believed to have restricted access since. Telegraph also says they could not confirm claims that employees in China had access to employee data. I don't think I have much more to add to this other than kind of just passing it along as an update. I don't think we have any way to confirm accuracy or not whether or not it was taken advantage of if accurate but in general since this data was handed over I would have to expect that Tesla has pretty thoroughly reviewed this type of access and put much better controls in place if necessary but that's just my assumption.
好的,接下来我们对于今年5月爆出的一起吹哨人事件有进一步的报道。当时handles blad报导称,挪威的一名前特斯拉服务技术员向外传递了100多GB的特斯拉数据,这个人在特斯拉工作期间保存了这些数据。此人认为这些数据在组织内部的可访问性太广泛。虽然这一事件在吹哨人出来之前可能已经引起了特斯拉的重视,但自那时以来,特斯拉已经在其数据政策上进行了一些改变。然而,今天从《电讯报》的一份报道中可以看到,吹哨人已经向英国信息专员办公室写信警告称,中、俄等国家的人员可能会访问这些数据,构成了所谓的重大安全风险。据信,特斯拉自那以后限制了对这些数据的访问。《电讯报》还表示他们无法确认中国员工是否访问了员工数据。除了简单地作为一个最新消息的传递,我觉得我没有太多可以补充的了。我觉得我们无法确认数据的准确性,也无法确认是否有人利用了这些数据。但总的来说,既然这些数据已经被传递出去,我想特斯拉肯定已经对这类访问进行了仔细审查,并在有需要时加强了更好的控制措施,但这只是我的猜测而已。

Alright, next up we've got a few quick ones. This one from the Verge. One of their reporters had exchanged a couple of text messages with one of the first owners of the cyber truck, Alexis O'Hanyan, who had taken delivery at the delivery event so the reporter asked how's the cyber truck and Alexis said handles even better than my ex feels like I'm driving the APC from aliens plenty of room for my two kids my two 100 pound dogs love it. As a big fella this is the first car that really feels comfortable to me. I think I read that he is around six foot five so certainly bigger than most. The reporter then also asked how's the windshield wiper and Alexis said massive in all caps. No surprise to see positive comments from an early owner they're likely to be quite supportive but still nice to hear some of those initial thoughts and specifics about what he is enjoying.
好的,接下来我们有几个简短的消息。这条消息来自Verge。其中一位记者与cyber truck的首批车主之一Alexis O'Hanyan交换了几条短信,Alexis在交车活动上收到了这辆车。因此,记者问他cyber truck怎么样,Alexis说比我的前任开起来还要好,感觉就像开着《异形》里的APC一样,非常宽敞,足够容纳我两个孩子和两只100磅的狗。作为一个身材高大的人来说,这是我真正感到舒适的第一辆车。我记得他的身高大概在六英尺五英寸左右,所以明显比大多数人都高大。然后记者又问他雨刮器怎么样,Alexis说庞大(用了大写字母写)。能从早期车主那里听到积极的评论并不意外,他们很可能会给予很大的支持,但还是很高兴听到一些他喜欢的初步想法和具体细节。

Next we've got a new country for Tesla. Tesla's announced that they have opened the configurator for Tesla vehicles in Qatar. This isn't going to be a huge market for Tesla there's only tens of thousands of vehicles sold in Qatar each year so nothing too significant there but an expansion nonetheless.
接下来,特斯拉进军了一个新的国家。特斯拉宣布已经在卡塔尔开启了特斯拉车辆的配置器。尽管这对特斯拉来说不会成为一个巨大的市场,因为每年在卡塔尔售出的汽车仅有数万辆,因此对特斯拉来说并不是非常重要,但这仍然是一次扩张。

We also had a quick post from Tesla's megapack account on X today saying congratulations megapack team on 12 gigawatt hours of operating industrial storage at 99% availability. We know how important uptime or availability is for Tesla across their product lines particularly with the supercharger network which also has a greater than 99% availability. Nice to see those kind of figures extending to megapack as well.
今天,我们也从特斯拉的超级电池账户上看到了一条快速的帖子,祝贺超级电池团队在12千瓦时工业储能方面达到了99%的可用性。我们知道对于特斯拉的所有产品线来说,正常运行时间或可用性是多么重要,尤其是对于具有超过99%可用性的超级充电网络来说。很高兴看到这样的数据也扩展到了超级电池。

Finally today on the battery front Panasonic has announced a partnership with sealantano technologies to purchase their next generation nano composite silicon anode material for EV batteries silicon anodes as you may remember from Tesla talking about it at battery day or on other occasions offers the potential for improved energy density in battery cells but presents a degradation challenge as silicon is more prone to cracking than what might otherwise be the anode with graphite. So Panasonic has used a little bit of silicon for years but they are saying that the high performance silicon material supplied by sealant outperforms conventional silicon by offering higher capacity as well as suppressing expansion during charging. Not a whole lot else shared in the announcement specifically Panasonic just says to achieve a 25% increase in battery energy density from the current levels of 800 watt hours per liter to 1000 watt hours per liter by 2031. It is essential to incorporate next-generation silicon materials in its battery development. I don't think they're saying that's all that would be required just that that would be one of the components that would help get to that level of improvement.
今天,关于电池方面的消息,Panasonic宣布与Sealantano Technologies合作,购买他们的下一代纳米复合硅负极材料,用于电动汽车电池的硅负极。正如你可能记得特斯拉在电池日或其他场合谈到的那样,硅负极可以提高电池电能密度,但由于硅材料更容易开裂,会对电池寿命产生负面影响。因此,Panasonic多年来一直在使用少量硅材料,但他们表示,Sealantano提供的高性能硅材料通过提供更高的容量并在充电过程中抑制膨胀,胜过传统的硅材料。公告中没有提到太多其他细节,Panasonic只是表示,为了在2031年将目前每升800瓦时提高到每升1000瓦时的增加电池能量密度。 关键是将下一代硅材料纳入其电池开发中,而不仅仅是硅材料就可以实现这一目标,该组件将有助于实现这一改进水平。

Alright, that is where we'll wrap it up for today then as always thank you for listening make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications you can also find me on X at Tesla podcast and we'll see you tomorrow for the Wednesday December 13th episode of Tesla daily thank you.
好了,今天的节目就到这里了,感谢你们一如既往地收听。记得要订阅并开启通知,你也可以在X平台上找到我,那就是Tesla podcast。明天见,在12月13日星期三的节目中,感谢大家。



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