Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis. For the schedule this week, only two videos from me today, Monday and tomorrow, Tuesday. Ashley and I are heading back home, so we'll be cleaning, packing and driving across the country. So the next time, after Tuesday, you'll see me again, we'll be Monday, December 18th.
First up, today we got a new filing from Tesla in response to some regulatory action from the California DMV that was brought against Tesla last year. This action itself against Tesla is not new. We have the DMV seeking remedies that could include suspending Tesla's license to sell cars in California and or requiring Tesla to make restitution to drivers when it comes to false advertising on autopilot and FSD. Just last week, Tesla is now responding, saying the DMV chose not to take any action against Tesla or otherwise communicate to Tesla that its advertising or use of these brand names was or might be problematic.
Tesla also said the DMV in 2016 decided not to prohibit the use of self-driving and similar language when drawing up regulation about statements on autonomous tech. Tesla relied on the DMV's implicit approval of these brand names. We also know on the Tesla website, they have disclaimers when it comes to these features like the user is still responsible, they have to keep their hands on the wheel and be ready to take over at all times. Tesla said the DMV has known now for years that Tesla was using these names for its technology dating all the way back to 2014 and back then the DMV never said anything.
And when it comes to free speech, Tesla claimed the DMV's false advertising rules on autonomous vehicles, impermissibly restrict constitutionally protected speech that is truthful and non misleading. But this is the latest in this legal proceeding. Paril Jain, who works on AI and Optimus at Tesla set on X, V12 based smart summon and parking derivatives will finally be smart. Initial dev builds are fire. It's not like any of us needed any more excitement for the V12 rollout. The latest word is it has been pushed back to sometime in January. That could of course could be delayed again, but for now that's what we're looking at. And yes, the word on the street is that with version 12 will come a solution to Tesla's auto wiper problem.
Tim Zaman, who served as the head of AI infrastructure at Tesla from 2019 until just this year, has now left Tesla to join Google and deep mind confirming on X, he said my intuition pulls me to my next venture that has the ingredients to change the world again. Tesla Chan on X said in the comments of this post that this is coming from multiple sources that rumors are growing that FSD beta will begin in China as early as the end of this month. This is certainly just that a rumor, but over the past few weeks, it's absolutely true that many signs have been pointing to both Tesla and the Chinese government gearing up for more autonomous pilots and specifically FSD being enabled in China.
I'm just speculating here, but even if this were to roll out to some employees or customers before the end of this month, I'm guessing it's going to be on a very limited basis like Tesla has done in North America. Then throughout 2024, they would slowly actually roll out this feature to more and more users. Whenever the first FSD rollout in China happens, that will definitely be exciting news. But when it comes to a material impact for Tesla financials and deferred revenue recognition, I would not expect anything material until 2024 at the earliest.
I'll tell you this, after everything I've learned over the past two weeks, El Cybertruck SL-Kamiyone Mas Impresio Nante, Hamas Construido. Not sure what I just said? It really is a shame, given that you would have known had you been using Babel, the sponsor of this video. I'll come clean. There's a golf resort in Mexico, Porto Los Cabos that one day I'd like to spend a few days playing with Ashley riding along. Babel is the go-to app when it comes to learning a language quickly, especially when it comes to travel conversations. I do most of my learning on my cell phone while I'm on my daily walk or relaxing after a long day of work, as I do really enjoy the lessons. Each one is designed by an actual language teacher and they've been proven to help people start speaking a new language in just three weeks.
我要告诉你这件事,在过去两周中我所学到的一切之后,El Cybertruck SL-Kamiyone非常令人印象深刻,堪称是被哈马斯建造的。不确定我刚才说的是什么吗?真是可惜,如果你使用了本视频的赞助商Babel,你早就知道了。我要坦白了。墨西哥有一个高尔夫度假胜地,Porto Los Cabos,我希望有一天能在那里和Ashley一起度过几天。Babel是学习语言的首选应用,特别是在旅行交流方面。我在日常散步或工作结束后,最常使用手机学习语言,因为我真的很喜欢这些课程。每个课程都由专业的语言教师设计,已被证实能在短短三周内帮助人们开始流利地说一门新语言。
Aque te redicas. El pastel de chaco latte por favor. Babel also offers two free live classes and a 20 day money back guarantee. The podcast on the Babel app offers a laid back way to continue your learning while you're on the go and el coce aciendo a Hercicio, Limpiano, La Casa, etc. I'm curious if you could learn any one language, what would it be and why? The Babel UI is clean, modern and easy to use. It syncs across all your devices so you can pick up where you leave off seamlessly. Right now you can get up to 60% off your subscription using the link in the description below. Did you really think I'd leave you hanging?
SF gate shared an image from December 7th of the progress of Tesla's drive-in diner in California. There's no official word on when this location will open up to the public but based on the progress sometime next year certainly seems likely.
SF gate分享了一张来自12月7日特斯拉驶入餐馆在加利福尼亚建设进展的图片。虽然尚无官方消息表明这个地点何时向公众开放,但根据目前的进展情况,明年某个时候似乎很有可能。
We got registration data from Jato Dynamics for 28 countries across the EU. Taking a look at model three sales year to date through October, they're up 19% year over year while the Model Y is up 144% year over year. Zooming out, looking at OEMs as a whole you can see Tesla is up 99% year to date this year compared to last year. The only other OEM group to have grown at a faster rate over the same time was labeled the Chinese. Also of note are the two biggest losers with negative year over year growth, Honda down 13% and Mitsubishi down 25%.
This page is very eye opening when it comes to the Chinese strategy for taking over the EU market. You can see many different options and it's all over the map in terms of year over year growth. Some are up significantly, there are many new models and some other models are actually already down significantly year over year. Simply put, the Chinese strategy has been to flood the market with many different models across different price points to see what sticks and then quickly iterate from there. In terms of unit volume year to date from a Chinese brand, the highest unit volume is actually coming from MG. BYD's bestseller year to date has done 9500 units and that was the Addo 3. So to anybody out there saying that Tesla's model three demand in Europe has been cratering, it's just not accurate according to the data. Up 19% year to date and that's with the Osborne effect of the model 3 plus lingering for a large portion of this year paired with the production shutdowns from Gigas Shanghai of the model three line for those upgrades.
The biggest bull case for the stock is all the things that no one talks about. It's the charging network. Everyone is adopted or signed on to their charging network. That could be potentially another $5 billion in revenue for them going forward. And if you look at what they gave up, they cut prices to gain share. If you had to say the next best EV player, it would be Rivian, which I'm long, but it's a very, very distant second. They've proven to be the only ones that are capable of turning a profit.
So you're not really on board with this call from Tony Second Aggie? No, and I think that if you look technically and Carter sees this too, it stopped much higher than 150. You've seen them break that declining trend line. It stopped around 185. It marked itself up. And I think that you're going to see a lot of hiccups on the way down. But anybody who is bet against Elon Musk is pretty much licking their wounds every time. That call from Tony is that his best idea for 2024 is shorting Tesla stock. I most definitely added that one to the prediction tracker. And I will say there are still some macro and hard landing risks that are involved for 2024 when it comes to Tesla stock. But definitely one will look forward to coming back to.
所以你并不完全支持Tony Second Aggie的决策?不,而且我认为如果你仔细看并且Carter也认同,它的停止价格远高于150。你已经看到它们打破了那个下降趋势线。它在185左右停下来,并且自身上涨了。我认为在下降过程中还会有许多起伏。但是每次有人押注对马斯克有损失都会几乎继续亏损。Tony的想法是,他2024年的最佳策略是做空特斯拉的股票。我确实将这个加入了预测追踪器。我会说,当涉及到特斯拉股票在2024年仍然存在一些宏观和硬着陆的风险。但无论如何,我都会期待回来再看一看。
We only have a handful of cyber trucks now out in the wild with initial customers, one of which is Alexis O'Hanean, who is married to Serena Williams. So we have the cyber truck already getting the paparazzi and celebrity treatment. If you didn't know, Alexis is most well known for being the co-founder of Reddit. In these photos, they were spotted leaving a party with some other huge name celebrities in attendance, including Leonardo DiCaprio, Tom Brady, Cindy Crawford, Dwayne Wade, Venus Williams, Snoop Dogg, and Little Wayne.
As far as I know, cyber truck reservations are non transferable. However, if you go to eBay and search cyber truck reservations, sort by sold, you will see that some have actually sold for thousands of dollars. All of these that you're seeing on the screen right now actually happened today or in the last two or three days. Let me be very clear. I am not showing you this encouraging anybody to go participate in this because I'm expecting this is something that Tesla is going to sniff out and put an end to not to mention the logistical challenges of getting a reservation under your account with your information potentially with your credit card transferred over to someone else. Now, yes, you can make burner accounts and there are always workarounds, but again, I think Tesla will find out. So again, definitely not encouraging this. I just found it pretty interesting to have a look.
The rumors flying around the internet right now are that Tesla will make around 1000 foundation series cyber trucks. Just remember that certainly a rumor. We also have confirmation that for those purchases, Tesla has put back the cyber truck no resale clause for the first year of ownership for a few weeks leading up to the cyber truck delivery event Tesla seemingly removed the cyber truck clause. But now it is indeed back.
If you go to fuel economy.gov and look at what vehicles are going to qualify for the IRA credits, they're currently listing both variants of the cyber truck that will be available in 2024 as being eligible for the credit. However, this might be a mistake because as we know, the cyber beast variant is well over the $80,000 limit. I suppose there's a small chance Tesla figured out some sort of sorcery when it comes to the actual MSRP and keeping that under the $80,000 cap, meaning the additional roughly $20,000 in cost for the cyber beast variant would actually not technically be MSRP. But again, I think that's pretty unlikely.
And because I know a few of you are indeed in Colorado, they have an innovative tax credit for $5,000 that you could get in addition to the $7,500 IRA tax credit, meaning come next year if you're in Colorado, you could get $12,500 off a cyber truck. The link will be below Bloomberg any F put out a ZEV fact book and I had to share this slide showing ice vehicle sales peaked back in 2017 and are undergoing a long term structural decline. Ice sales have taken the biggest hit declining on average 6% each year since 2019. In 2022, only 59 million ice cars were sold globally, excluding hybrids 5% fewer than a year earlier and 29% fewer than at their 2017 peak.
Even sweeter as ice sales have tumbled sales of battery electric vehicles full be V have taken off. EV sales were 68% higher in 2022 than the year before and 253% higher than in 2019. Despite all of the propaganda about hydrogen being the future and propagated by companies like Toyota and others, sales of hydrogen fuel cell passenger vehicles has been falling. Poor F.C.V. demand has hindered hydrogen refueling deployment and the network is dwarfed by the EV charging infrastructure. Some refueling stations and markets like California, Norway and the UK have even closed.
They did also highlight that EV sales in India have been on a rapid increase over the past few years, however these numbers do include both full BEV and plug-in hybrids as well. But the good news is that full BEVs are still beating out plug-in hybrids and fuel cell vehicles in all of the major markets, China, Europe and the US. A pretty interesting stat, the IRA has already attracted over $100 billion of EV investment into North America. Most of that in the form of battery and EV manufacturing followed by battery component production.
And perhaps most importantly, after an uncharacteristic battery pack price increase from 2021 to 2022, we have resumed the long-term trend of battery pack prices continuing to fall down 14% year over year. Finally, a bit of good news for Tesla and Sweden, we have E-Game at all, the union in Germany, coming out and saying they will not be joining in on the sympathy strikes. An E-Game at all spokesperson said that would be illegal. You strike for your own business, a political strike would mean violating the duty to work and then the employer could take action against the employees.
Bear in mind to this next part that these comments are coming from a representative of E-Game at all. Either way though, he said the number of members at Tesla is increasing. It's rising quickly and it's rising faster than expected. Saying if E-Game at all got to decide Tesla's employees would have a collective agreement. But the initiative must come from the employees. E-Game at all is not saying publicly how many employees at Gigabrelin are looking to join the union. However, reading between the lines given that they have not gone public, yet that would indicate that they don't have enough interest to move forward.
Monroe Live uploaded their deep dive video on the Cybertruck with five other Tesla executives. Honestly, for me to just spit out some of the highlights, it would be a disservice to the video itself that by nature was actually very technical and packed with a lot of new and good information. There are a few quick things I wanted to touch on though. First, Drew Baglino did say that long term the goal for the range extender for the Cybertruck is going to reach over 500 miles of range. We also had Pete Bannon talking about the 48 volt architecture. My takeaway from what he said was that when it comes to that, Tesla is really going to use that 48 volt for new cars or going forward.
Monroe Live在Cybertruck的深度解析视频中与其他五位特斯拉高管一起进行了上传。老实说,光简单概述一些亮点对于这个视频本身来说是不公平的,因为它本质上是非常技术性的,并且包含了大量的新信息和好信息。不过,我还是想简短谈谈其中的几个要点。首先,Drew Baglino确实表示,从长远看,Cybertruck的续航增程器的目标是超过500英里的续航里程。我们还听到了Pete Bannon提到的48伏电压构架。从他的话中我得出的结论是,特斯拉在这方面真的会在新车型或者未来中广泛应用48伏电压构架。
In terms of actually changing over Model Y or Model 3 lines, I personally would not be expecting that anytime soon. I would say that in the long term, once the supply chain for these 48 volt components are more built out, then at that point it may make sense for Tesla to rebuy and retool all of that line for 48 volts for the Model Y. But at least for now, when it comes to Pete Bannon's comments on 48 volts, it sounds like it's for future Tesla vehicles. It was also confirmed that the rear Gigacast in the Cybertruck is indeed 9000 tons, but the front Gigacast is actually only 6500 tons, which means they can use the same equipment for both the Model Y Gigacast as well as the front version for the Cybertruck. That does certainly help a bit when it comes to cycle time and also gives Tesla a bit more production flexibility when it comes to allocating Gigacast production. Drew Baglino confirmed what we thought to be true that the first iteration of Tesla's structural pack, they would give it a C grade, but now when it comes to the Cybertruck, that's been boosted up to a grade of a B. It's always been an A architecture, but the first iteration of it was a C and Tesla has upgraded to a B when it comes to the Cybertruck.
But again, this really was pretty dense with technical information. So if you're into that type of thing, I would highly encourage you check it out. The full video will be linked below. For me, it's served as another reminder that Elon is nowhere in this interview. We have these Tesla execs that are all leading their own teams and these individuals are all highly talented, committed and passionate in their own regard.
In case any of you have been following our next energy, one of the next-gen battery tech darlings of the past few months, their CEO and founder was just replaced yesterday, this after a UK investment fund just climbed it with Drew as lead investor in a series C fund raising round, this left the company one with a severe cash crunch. At one point, this company was valued at $1.2 billion and they were looking to use that series C funding to build a battery manufacturing site in Michigan. This was one of the next-gen battery tech companies that was widely expected to bring their product to the market first. This is certainly a big setback for them, we'll see where they go from here.
Just last week, Rivian laid off 20 members of its long-range battery cell development team, which means they laid off most of their R&D team working on future batteries for the company's vehicles. In a statement, they said, while we place a very high value on the cell engineering competence we've built at Rivian, we're focusing the team on the company's future electric R2 SUV and its defined programs. Just last week, we talked about how there were no federally funded public charging stations that were yet up and running. Fast forward to today and finally, one is up and running in Ohio, it opened on Friday. This site includes four EVGO fast chargers under an overhead canopy with restrooms, Wi-Fi, food beverages, and other conveniences.
The founder of CATL just came out and said that their partnership with Ford for this joint battery factory in Michigan will not be affected by the White House's new rules on foreign entities of concern. Remember, the foreign entities of concern, China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. We also learned that CATL will be playing the patent game as they're setting up a new R&D headquarters in Hong Kong. The company already has over 22,000 patents and that number is increasing by more than 7,000 every year. Don't forget, Tesla is one of CATL's biggest customers so all of this will be relevant to Tesla's business as well. The products generated by the R&D center will be patented and CATL will license these patents for a fee. Additionally, CATL can provide services to outside companies for a fee.
As we said last week, if this project does indeed move forward, this will lay the groundwork for Tesla to do something very similar in partnership with CATL for LFP cells. This is a great feature for anybody renting a Tesla as Kyle Connor pointed out, you get in your rented Tesla, you simply scan a QR code and then instantaneously you have your entire profile imported into the Tesla vehicle.
Adrienne in the hat who has been tracking the gigamexico progress said after a long 90 business days, the Mexican Ambient Agency has approved the change of land use for gigamexico. This clears the path to start work on the site. I looked around, I don't think this document has been made public yet but in the weeks ahead, I'm sure that will change.
Something to watch at a marine core site, they installed a battery energy storage system using CATL technology but for now it's been shut down. That's thanks to security concerns and Duke Energy decided to disconnect it for now as they figure out what's going on. This followed a high profile accusation by US lawmakers that CATL is directly funded and enjoys support from the Chinese Communist Party. Naturally, CATL in response said that they do not collect, sell or share any data nor do they interact directly with critical infrastructure. Duke Energy said, as an American energy company, we welcome the ability to use American manufactured batteries. I do not think this will go that far but if there was a world where CATL was painted as a security risk when it comes to their technology and battery storage systems, that would of course help Tesla from a competitive standpoint.
Along those lines, we have countries around the world coming together to back battery energy storage initiatives. One of the main ones is called the Supercharging Battery Storage Initiative, which aims to reduce the cost of energy storage. The United States and Canada have also joined the European Commission and Australia as participants. The US Energy Secretary said, 1.5 terawatts to 2.5 terawatts of energy storage power capacity will be required, plus up to tens of thousands of terawatt hours in storage duration. That is, for the United States alone to be able to reach net zero. According to IEA Modeling, best deployments need to exceed 1 terawatt by 2030 to stay in line with net zero policy targets, representing an increase of around 23 times the levels of deployments today. When people talk about quasi-infinite demand for the Tesla megapack, this is part of what they're referencing.
Mazda just said that by 2030 they're planning to have a lineup of 7 or 8 EV models. Their new standalone electric division is called E-MOSDA, the first vehicle of which will debut around 2025 to 2027. For now, this division only has 100 employees. Initially, these vehicles will be made in Japan but they said by around 2028 they may look to have some North American assembly.
There's been some wild things happening with some of the most prestigious colleges in the United States as of late. Elon did say SpaceX and Tesla have noticed a meaningful degradation in the capability of US college graduates over the past several years.
In a press release from Lucid today, they announced their CFO Sherry House has resigned from her position, effective immediately to pursue other opportunities. She'll be available in an advisory role through the end of the year to assist in her transition. I know it would be very easy to assume that Sherry is leaving because the house is on fire when it comes to Lucid's financials. But in fairness, I have to also say it could just be that she was offered a better opportunity somewhere else and she decided to take it.
And today we just learned that Ford has plans to cut output of the F-150 Lightning pickup by 50% in 2024 thanks to changing market demand. According to a planning memo obtained by Automotive News, Ford told their suppliers to prepare for an average volume of around 1,600 lightnings per week down from about 3,200 per week today. They're expecting no changes when it comes to the F-150 ice lineup. This would put Ford on an annual pace of roughly 75,000 F-150 lightnings per year. And don't forget, at the beginning of this year, they spent all of that downtime retooling their factories to boost F-150 Lightning production up over 150,000 per year. Just last month, there was some optimism that F-150 Lightning sales were going to be trending up after November. They sold over 4,300 units. However, it sounds like Ford is not so optimistic. What this also means is that in 2024, there's a world where Tesla sells nearly as many if not more Cybertrucks than Ford sells F-150 lightnings. Wall Street is expecting Tesla to sell around 77,000 Cybertrucks in 2024. Personally, I'm expecting lower just to keep my expectations in check. But based on this news, it sounds like the first mover advantage for Ford and the EV pickup market has been squandered.
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