Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis. First up today we got some rare comments from Javier Verdura, the global director of product design at Tesla, as he just gave a keynote in Monterey. We don't hear from him often, but just so you know, he's been at Tesla almost 12 years now. He made a pretty bold prediction saying by 2026, electric cars would be surpassing ICE cars in terms of sales and production. Saying, the global market for ICE cars is going down in a tailspin and EVs are going up like rockets, and they'll cross paths in 2026 or so when EVs will surpass gas cars. This of course flies in the face of pretty much all of the sentiment we read in the media over the past few weeks.
It's always fun to look back and see how far things have come in the EV world, a spear headed by Tesla and he said in 2012, all the EVs in the world that were produced and sold were around 130,000 cars. Fast forward to today, every 3 days across all automakers, 150,000 electric cars are produced. He said back in 2013, the rest of the industry was laughing at Tesla, then they attacked them, and then they started copying them. I would add, most of the laughing is now done, but the attacking and the copying is still in full force. Then to close, he said at the Cybertruck delivery event, they're planning to deliver the first 10. I have heard other rumors of upwards of 30, ultimately though it really does not matter either way what the number is on the 30th.
On the topic, Troy Teslick suggested that when Tesla begins Cybertruck deliveries to customers, not employees, there's actually going to be a cost of goods increase from the production of the Cybertruck. He suggested Tesla's way to lessen this impact would be to make all deliveries this quarter employee deliveries like they did with the Model 3 back in 2017. However, as Rob pointed out back in 2017 with employee-only deliveries of the Model 3, Tesla's auto gross margins still dropped quarter over quarter. Adding, the employee-only strategy was likely product and service driven, not profit or loss driven. For me, on this one, I would not be too dogmatic either way because again, it's primarily driven by certain things, but there are many factors that ultimately impact auto gross margin. The main point I wanted to make though is over the next 12 months, yes, it's going to be super exciting from a marketing and demand perspective when it comes to the Cybertruck, but when it comes to Tesla's financials, the Cybertruck is indeed going to be a drag on the earnings per share. And whether that negative impact shows up in quarter 4 or quarter 1 is not as important as just knowing that that negative impact is indeed coming in the quarters ahead.
We have Ray for Tesla and some other Chinese sources saying that Tesla's FSD is going to be rolling out in China here soon, but what are they actually going off of? I tracked down the actual source that most of these outlets seem to be talking about and here it is. 4 departments, including the MIIT, have deployed pilot projects for the access and on-road access of intelligent connected vehicles. Before I even get into this, I want to be clear, Tesla specifically is not mentioned anywhere in this document nor is any other automaker. Effectively, all automakers are going to have to go through a process of application and approval. But the great news is that the government is going to be pushing forward for pilot programs for autonomous driving. It will be actual road testing and demonstration, but in limited areas and as mentioned, there will be certain qualifications and requirements that these automakers have to meet with their vehicles and they will be focusing on level 3 and 4 autonomy. The government wants to continue gathering more empirical evidence from this pilot program, which they will then use to formulate and revise some of the relevant laws. Only after the pilot auto manufacturers pass product testing and safety assessment can they submit product access applications. Then the MIIT will decide whether to grant the approval.
You may recall Elon said our focus will be on getting FSD on hardware 3, working super well and provided internationally back in August this year. Right before that comment, we also heard that Tesla was working on recruiting efforts for a local operation in China to bring FSD to the region. That team was going to consist of around 20 people and Tesla has been checking off other boxes here as well. They had already sent engineers from its HQ to conduct training in China. They were assembling a data labeling team in China for the training of the algorithm and we know Tesla has already set up a data center in China saying all data that's gathered will be stored locally and not shared anywhere else. And you may recall back in May when a Shanghai official said they wanted to deepen its cooperation with Tesla including self-driving.
The elephant in the room is still how things are going to go with the FSD 12 rollout but the way I see it there is certainly a world where FSD makes its entry in the Chinese market sometime in 2024 but that's certainly not a guarantee. Tesla isn't the only company innovating, executing and growing.
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Ashley is a fashionista and she loves the Soho shoes on me so enough said. Not only are they 100% waterproof but even the laces are waxed finish and the outsole are extra grippy for traction wherever you go. I'm in Florida right now so I can't demonstrate these all as well but I'll tell you right now these are really going to help ease the pain of returning home to snow. I'm honestly excited to shovel, snow blow, walk and run errands in these in the winter when I get home. They feel great on my feet, the fleece lining is chef's kiss and the traction on these is like a car tire and please don't ever sleep on the convenience of a good pool tab for easy on easy off. And yes the gloves are touch screen compatible but my personal favorite would still have to be the everyday classic comfortable versatile and I think stylish. So if you want to keep your adventures going rain, snow or shine I think you should check out vesiet, vesiet.com slash electrified linked below. Right now Vessie's running their biggest sale of the year for Black Friday and if you use my link you can still get that 15% off as well. Enjoy.
We also have Ray for Tesla sharing another source that Tesla may be increasing prices in the Chinese market yet again. Translating that image it says according to the financial associated press after three consecutive price increases Tesla will raise the price in the Chinese market again next week.
And why not one more let's just make today Ray's day. Translating the source he shared it said all major government agencies removed the no entry Tesla signs overnight. The Ministry of Commerce is going to further investigate possible regulations and measures that discriminate against foreign invested enterprises. All of this happening after G has met with Elon Biden and other leaders China is definitely looking for some more foreign investment in their market to spur their own economy. Why weren't Tesla vehicles allowed near government or military operations? The word was because of the cameras and the data gathering. I will say if this is true that could be a signal that China is now trusting Tesla when it comes to the handling of any data it's gathering in that market which yes would of course be a great sign for FSD rolling out there once they have any security and privacy concerns handled and everybody's on the same page.
Some of you asked me to touch on the Roskerber situation. My simple takeaway is that this is a big nothing burger. This too will blow over like all of Elon's controversies ultimately do. As always will Elon alienate some percentage of the population with his public comments? The answer is yes but at the end of the day Tesla doesn't need 100% of the population to buy its products. I will say though at least to me it seems like Ross is a bit unhinged here and speaking on emotion. I'm sure he has a lot of clients calling and he's having to deal with this fallout but his fund doesn't own that much Tesla and let's not forget his job is to actually help people separate their emotions from investing that's what good investors do.
I do want to say though to anybody that really thinks Elon is anti-Semitic I would say those people are misinformed and they don't know what they're talking about. I'm not getting into it but if you're wondering what the controversy is about this time as far as I can tell it's from these two posts from Elon on X. I'll have a link to this below you can come to your own conclusion. I'm against anti-Semitism I'm against anti-really anything that is you know that promotes hate and conflict and I'm in favor of that which helps a bold society and take us to a better future.
Gary Black did a good job on CNBC this morning getting around this whole narrative. The simple takeaway is that at the end of the day most people just want the best product at the best price. Most people are so busy with their own lives they don't have time for all of this drama they're not even on X and they're not that worried about what Elon is saying or not saying. The problem is the small minority that do care are very loud and they tend to distort the narrative in the short term but in the long run this means very little and could Tesla's brand be damaged slightly in certain pockets of the population maybe but most likely those people weren't ever going to buy a Tesla in the first place.
I really didn't even want to touch on this at all because the way I see it this will have zero impact on Tesla's long-term success. Today is an exciting day for General Motors as we lay out our plans to grow our business and lead the EV transformation globally. We are well positioned to be an EV transformation leader in Australia and New Zealand by engaging with customers, communities and other stakeholders. Twice Mary Barra said they were going to be the EV leader in this short segment. Now yes the first time she said there are plans to be the EV leader but still.
A community member of ours Andreas sent me an email that Tesla just sent out to some Swedes. They said the Model Y is the best selling car in Sweden so far this year. Tesla has faced many challenges but they've always succeeded thanks to their unique approach to problem solving. Their employees are rewarded with their conditions in a good working environment but like many other companies they've chosen not to enter a collective agreement. More than 90% of our employees have chosen to remain in their positions ready to welcome you to delivery center service centers and stores. Closing with we want to assure you we're deeply committed to continuing our journey in Sweden. We recently opened our first V4 supercharger in Sweden and many more are on the way. At least for now it sounds like Tesla has no immediate plans to leave Sweden.
As we've been saying today the sympathy strikes were going to be extended. To date it had been four main Swedish ports that were blocked where people were not unloading Tesla vehicles. Today that's been expanded to all docks. So far though the word is Tesla has been working around this by using transport carriers from surrounding countries. On Monday the 20th the postal workers have said they're going to join in in the sympathy strike to stop delivering Tesla's mail. I really don't know how this one's going to end because it does seem a lot more symbolic than anything else at this point for both sides. The unions flat out said it's a fight for their model not just for the Tesla workers.
We have Fisker saying it delivered over 100 vehicles for the first time in one day. More importantly though they were touting their new Fisker direct where if a customer lives within 60 miles of a fulfillment location a Fisker employee drives their ocean directly to them for delivery. My question becomes how does that employee get back to the fulfillment center. Questions remain on that one and I would add this strategy is not scalable.
Some people were saying the Cadillac optic was revealed today. That's not really true though if you go back a few months this vehicle was actually debuted for the Chinese market first. We really don't have any specs on this vehicle for the US market other than it's going to be smaller than the Cadillac Lyric and will most likely be on the Altium platform. This vehicle is supposed to begin deliveries in the Chinese market by the end of this year. All they really said was that the optic should come to the market sometime in 2024 and the word is it may start somewhere in the mid 40,000's. It's an interesting move by GM because they really haven't figured things out with the Cadillac Lyric yet but now they're focusing on another vehicle. Year to date the Lyric has only sold about 5.3,000 units and yes this is US only data.
I think this right here could be some really good news for the long term that will mostly go overlooked simply put the Department of Energy is waking up to the importance of virtual power plants to our United States energy grid. A senior advisor to the DOE just said the versatility of battery storage to provide a broad range of services makes them particularly valuable to VPPs. The DOE has also been conducting a study on VPPs and their report found that US peak demand forecast is set to rise by more than 200 gigawatts by 2030 and the deployment of between 80 and 160 gigawatts of VPPs by that time could reduce the overall grid costs by 10 billion dollars per year. They're estimating right now there's between 30 to 60 gigawatts of capacity aggregated into VPPs already in the United States but they admitted the data isn't that reliable.
One company that's been at the forefront of this green mountain power in Vermont we've talked about them before how they're integrating Tesla power walls into their VPP. GMP just requested state approval for an extra 30 million dollars to expand their programs alongside 250 million dollars for transmission grid upgrades.
The DOE senior advisor also just said I see batteries as a little bit like a wild card in VPPs. You can play them anyway you can charge them to avoid the curtailment of clean energy you can dispatch them for energy similar to how you dispatch energy from a peaker plant you can do fast frequency response with sub second fluctuations. So they really span the whole spectrum of grid resources and that way I think they're particularly valuable to VPPs. And a senior analyst at S&P said greater adoption of VPPs will be among the long-term drivers for the uptake of residential battery energy storage globally. A movement that Tesla is set up perfectly to be one of the leading players of.
It's not officially official but automotive news has been counting the votes and they're declaring that GM's, Tylantis and Ford all three have ratified the new UAW contracts. That's because the agreement so far are passing by more votes than are actually remaining to be cast. It'll now be pretty interesting to watch the earnings results for these companies over the next two to three years.
I saw some confusion around this one so when it comes to the software update.38.8 and the Bluetooth feature for the rear screen in Tesla vehicles as far as I can tell right now this feature is only available for the new Model 3. This means you can actually pair headphones and I'm hearing up to two strictly to the screen in the back. For some unknown reason to me this feature is not yet available on the Model S or X.
As Sawyer pointed out SpaceX just announced their next-gen Starlink terminal. I have not been able to find any performance specs just yet. Just wanted to put it out there if any of you are interested in going to read more.
For a limited time if you buy an R1T Rivian is now offering a free wall charger around $800 of value and a $2,000 installation credit with one of their partners.
Don't forget to check out Vessi linked below. I really am a big fan of their products.
别忘了查看下面的Vessi链接。我真的很喜欢他们的产品。
Hope you guys have a wonderful and a safe weekend. Please like the video. If you did you can find me on X linked below and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.