E153: In conversation with Jared Kushner: Israel-Hamas War, paths forward, macro picture, AI
发布时间 2023-11-11 01:16:09 来源
Sex with a say were you writing last night's all three in the morning I was blasting people on Twitter yesterday. I was collecting scalps. I keep these receipts of people who attack me on Ukraine. And then like six months later, you know, they all write a tweet admitting they were wrong. So I'll rob it in their face. You have a little Google Doc and you just go. I just like Mark him. I just like Mark him. You have like your kill bill with. Yeah. You are so petty. Oh, God. I love that. I love that about you. Someone said that's a good defense mechanism. Right. This way. Yeah, they got to know they're not going to take any free shots because if they do and then coming back, you know, invariably I I'm proven correct. Then you're going to clap back. I'm going to smack him. Very Trumpian, isn't it? Yeah, it's a very hard burden for you to carry. Just being right all the time. I respect the way you do with such grace and let your winter ride. Rain man, David. And we open source it to the fans and they've just got the reason. Love you guys. Nice. Queen of King Bob.
昨晚你在写什么东西时，还在凌晨三点与一个人发生了性关系。昨天我在Twitter上痛击了一些人。我收集了那些攻击我有关乌克兰问题的人的证据。然后大约六个月后，你知道吗，他们都会发推文承认自己错了。所以我就会炫耀一下。你有一个小的谷歌文档，你只需要去标记他们。我就像是马克在他们脸上。就像你属于《杀死比尔》的那种人。是啊，你就是这么小心眼。哦，天哪。我喜欢这点。我喜欢你有这一点。有人说这是一种好的自卫机制。对，就这样。他们得知道他们不能白白攻击我，因为如果他们这样做，然后我回击，你知道，无疑地我会证明自己是正确的。然后你就会回击。我会打击他们。挺像特朗普的，不是吗？是的，这对你来说是个很重的负担。总是正确真是让我敬佩。你用如此优雅的方式应对，坚定不移。像雨人大卫一样。我们向粉丝们开源并且他们只需理由。爱你们。很好。女王或国王鲍勃。
All right. Welcome back to the all in pod. Really excited to have a guest with us today, Jared Kushner. I'm sure everyone knows who he is. We obviously talked about Jared's interview with Lex Friedman on the pod a couple of weeks ago. And what happened to Matthew D. And Jared and started chatting and said, Hey, would you be interested in coming to talk with us? Yeah, that these matters. And Jared very, you know, kindly agreed to do it. So we're really excited to have Jared join us today.
好的。欢迎回到All In播客。非常高兴今天有一个特别的嘉宾，Jared Kushner。我相信每个人都知道他是谁。几周前，我们在播客中已经谈论过Jared与Lex Friedman的采访。然后发生了一些事情，Matthew D和Jared开始聊天。他们说：“嗨，你有兴趣过来和我们聊天吗？”对，就是这样。Jared非常友好地同意了。所以我们非常兴奋地邀请Jared今天加入我们。
Jared, welcome. Thank you for having me. So I don't think you need much of an introduction. Obviously you were a senior advisor to president from from 2017 to 2021. And you worked on the US-Mexico relationship as well as led the Middle East peace efforts, which I think is going to make up the bulk of what we're excited to talk about today. Just really briefly since leaving. Office, you've been investing running a firm called Affinity Partners. Is that right? Maybe you can share with us just a little bit about what you've been up to. And then we'll, you know, kind of get into it here.
贾里德，欢迎你。感谢你邀请我。我认为你不需要太多介绍。显然，你从2017年到2021年担任总统高级顾问。你在美墨关系方面工作过，还领导过中东和平努力，我认为这将是我们今天非常期待讨论的主要内容。简单来说，自从离职后，你一直在投资经营一家名为Affinity Partners的公司，对吗？也许你可以和我们分享一下你最近做过些什么，然后我们会开始具体讨论。
Perfect. Affinity Partners is a private equity firm that I started when we left doing growth investing, private equity investing globally. We raised just over 3.1 billion doing a lot of investments. Trying to bring golf money into Israel, into the US, trying to figure out how through investments you could bring countries closer together, people closer together, looking at a lot of areas where there's structural transitions happening at large in the global economy, whether it's near-shoring from offline to online, you know, software, a lot of different interesting areas, a lot of the FinTech space and financial services right now. But, you know, enjoying it. And the goal is really to bring the experience that we had from the previously being an investor and then the time in government and then thinking through how you could use those macro learnings and connections and relationships and navigational skills to the investing side. Right. So we're going to try and talk later in the show about macro markets a bit, talk a little bit about some of the activity in AI this week. We think it's all pretty prescient and hopefully we can all dialogue about that.
完美。 “亲和合作伙伴”是我创办的私募股权公司，在我们停止全球增长投资和私募股权投资之后成立。我们筹集了超过31亿美元进行了很多投资。我们试图将高尔夫球资金引入以色列和美国，试图通过投资将各国和人民联系在一起，研究正在全球经济中发生的许多结构性转变的领域，无论是从线下到线上的近岸外包，还是软件，还有许多其他有趣的领域，如金融科技领域和金融服务领域。但是，我享受其中。我们的目标是将先前作为投资者所获得的经验与政府经历以及思考如何利用这些宏观学习和联系以及导航技巧应用于投资方面。所以我们打算在节目后期谈谈宏观市场，谈谈本周人工智能方面的一些活动。我们认为这一切都非常有前瞻性，希望我们都能对此进行对话。
I think it'd be helpful when you and I talk just to get ready for the show today. You mentioned that you had a very liberal upbringing in the Upper East Side in New York and your perspective began to shift as you started to travel the country. And you were in the Trump White House and have become very active since. Would love to hear a little bit about how your perspective shifted in the time you spent. Could you mention you started traveling the country and seeing things that you otherwise haven't seen living in the Upper East Side? Would love to hear that part of your story before we kind of get into things. If you wouldn't mind sharing.
我认为，今天我们就节目事宜进行一次谈话会很有帮助。你提到过，你在纽约上东区度过了一个非常自由的成长环境，而当你开始在全国各地旅行时，你的观点开始发生了变化。你曾经在特朗普的白宫任职，并且在此后变得非常积极参与。非常想听听你在那段经历中观点如何转变的细节。你能否提一下当初你开始旅行并看到了一些你在上东区生活时从未见过的事物？非常希望能听到你的故事的这一部分，然后再进入我们今天要讨论的话题。如果你愿意的话，请分享一下。
Yeah, sure. So one thing about my life is that nothing has gone according to the plan. I grew up in New Jersey, a really nice place in Livingston. My father was an entrepreneur in the real estate business banking insurance. Did a lot of different things really brought up me and my siblings to be focused on business. And really for us was a good experience growing up.
是的，没错。所以我生活中的一件事就是，没有任何事情按照计划进行。我在新泽西长大，在利文斯顿这个非常美丽的地方。我父亲是一位房地产业、银行和保险业的企业家。他做过很多不同的事情，真的让我和我的兄弟姐妹注重商业。对于我们来说，成长过程中这是一次很好的经历。
I went to Harvard and then after that, chose to go to law school and business school, where I was at NYU during that time. My father had a legal issue and I was forced to take over the business. And so I got into the real estate business and then after that, bought a media company in New York. And that's really where I got exposure to a lot of what I called New York society. My wife and I, we met, got married and through that experience, I thought we had a very expanded worldview at our house in the Upper East Side. We have dinner parties, we have heads of banks and hedge funds and technology companies in fashion. And then it was just a really nice life.
我先去了哈佛大学，然后选择进入法学院和商学院，在此期间我就读于纽约大学。我的父亲遇到了法律问题，我被迫接手家族企业。因此，我开始从事房地产业务，然后在纽约购买了一家媒体公司。那真正让我接触到许多我称之为纽约社会的东西。我和我的妻子相识并结婚，通过这段经历，我觉得我们在上东城的家中的视野得到了很大拓展。我们举办晚宴，邀请各大银行、对冲基金、科技公司和时尚界的负责人参加。这是一种美好的生活。
And then her father announced he was running for office. And that was an interesting experience for us as a Republican. We didn't know too many Republicans. Were you registered Democrat prior? I was registered Democrat going up. My father was a big Democrat donor. We'd have in our house whether it be Chuck Schumer, Hillary Clinton. I think my father gave Cory Booker his first campaign donation. So I know Cory's in some 15 years old. So really grew up around Democrat politics all of our life. But over time, I think during the Obama years, I changed my registration to an independent. I didn't feel like the Democrat party was fully representing my viewpoint. So I felt more independent minded.
然后她的父亲宣布他要参选。对我们这些共和党人来说，这是一段有趣的经历。我们并不认识太多共和党人。之前你是否注册为民主党员？我在成长过程中都是民主党员。我父亲是民主党的重要捐款人。我们家里会有查克·舒默、希拉里·克林顿等人来访。我想我父亲是科里·布克的第一笔竞选捐款的赞助者。所以我知道科里现在大概15岁了。所以在我们的整个生活中，都是在民主党政治中成长的。但随着时间的推移，在奥巴马时期，我改变了党派注册，成为了独立选民。我感觉民主党没有完全代表我的观点，所以我更倾向于独立思考。
And then during the time with my father-in-law, when he was running for office, he invited me to go with him to a rally in Springfield, Illinois. We flew out there, I got off the plane. And we pulled up to an arena and the guy comes up to Trump and says, congratulations, sir. You just broke the record for the arena for attendance. Then he says, well, who had the record before? And he says, well, it's Elton John 36 years earlier. And he says, Jared, look, I don't even have a guitar or piano. This is impressive. So he gets up on stage and without really notes, riffs for over an hour.
然后在我与我的岳父共度的时光中，当他竞选职位时，他邀请我陪他去伊利诺伊州斯普林菲尔德参加一场集会。我们乘飞机前往那里，我下了飞机。然后我们驶进一个竞技场，有人走过来对特朗普先生说恭喜，您刚刚打破了该竞技场的入场人数纪录。然后他问，之前是谁保持了纪录？有人回答说是36年前的艾尔顿·约翰。他说，杰里德，瞧，我甚至没有吉他或钢琴。这真令人印象深刻。然后他上台，在没有准备笔记的情况下即兴演奏了一个多小时。
And it was interesting for me because I was watching CNN and The New York Times and all my friends in the media basically were describing his rallies as almost like KKK conventions. But I walked around the crowd. Nobody knew who I was then. And what I saw was that these were just, they were people who were old, young, male, female, white, minority. And it was just people who were hardworking Americans who really felt like Trump was giving them a voice.
对我来说，这很有趣，因为我当时正在看CNN和《纽约时报》，而且我所有的媒体朋友基本上都将他的集会描述成几乎像是Ku Klux Klan（KKK）集会。但当时没人知道我是谁，我在人群中四处走动。我看到的是这些人不分老少、男女、白人和少数族裔，他们都是辛勤工作的美国人，真的觉得特朗普给了他们发声的机会。
And what was interesting to me was a couple of weeks earlier, we'd been at the Robinhood Foundation, which is the big philanthropy in New York, where a lot of the hedge fund managers support. I remember the chairman of Robinhood getting up and saying, if we want to save the next generation, we want to save the kids in the inner cities, we have to support Common Core. That's the way that we can save people. And I remember Trump gets up there and he says, if we want to save education, we have to end Common Core and send it to the States. And I'm saying, wait, I thought Common Core was this great thing. But why are all these people against it?
对我来说有趣的是，几个星期之前，我们参加了纽约的罗宾汉基金会，这是一个由许多对冲基金经理支持的慈善机构。我记得罗宾汉基金会主席站起来说，如果我们想要拯救下一代，我们想要拯救城市贫困区的孩子，我们必须支持全美核心课程标准（Common Core）。这是我们拯救人们的方式。而我记得特朗普上台发言说，如果我们想要拯救教育，我们必须终止全美核心课程标准，并将其交给各个州来处理。我感到困惑，我之前以为全美核心课程标准是一件好事，为什么这些人都反对它呢？
And so it really just kind of piqued my interest and made me realize that maybe my aperture was way smaller, way more closed than I thought it was. And it really led me to seek out a lot of people who had differing points of view than the people I'd been around before. I really opened my aperture, explored a lot. And over the years, I really got the chance to meet with people from both sides. So I have a lot of friends who are independent, friends who are liberal, friends who are very Republican. And my personal view was I bought myself more as a pragmatist, fact-based and data-driven. And based on that, I tried to pursue the different policies that I thought made the most sense. In as an emotional way as possible.
所以，它确实激起了我的兴趣，并让我意识到我的视野可能比我想象的要狭小、封闭得多。这真的促使我寻找与之前接触到的人持不同观点的人。我真正开阔了自己的视野，进行了大量探索。多年来，我真的有机会与来自两个立场的人见面。所以我有很多独立的朋友、自由派的朋友，还有非常保守的共和党朋友。我个人的观点是，我更倾向于实用主义者，以事实和数据为基础。基于此，我试图尽可能情感化地追求我认为最有意义的不同政策。
How did you figure out that moment in Springfield could translate all throughout the country? Like, was there a process that you guys went through to validate? Like, hold on, is this just a moment in time or is this just a specific area? Or how did you guys get to the ground truth of what the scalable, marketable candidate looked like? Because I'm sure that was part of the calculus in what you did. Because I think to your point, maybe the media's perspective was, hold on a second, this guy is riffing. But it clearly went very quickly from riffing to a methodical plan. And I don't think that that's ever really been talked about. Do you want to just tell us a little bit about that?
你们是如何找到在斯普林菲尔德那个瞬间能够在整个国家复制的机会的？比如，你们是否经历了一个过程来验证？比如说，这只是一个时刻还是只是一个特定的地区？或者你们是如何找到可扩展、可市场化的候选人的真实情况的？因为我确定这也是你们考虑的因素之一。因为我觉得你所说的，媒体的观点可能是，等一下，这家伙是在瞎扯。但很明显，很快就从胡言乱语转变为有条理的计划。我觉得这方面从来没有真正被讨论过。你想给我们谈谈这方面的情况吗？
Sure. Well, I would say it was less planned and way more entrepreneurial. And I say entrepreneurial in two different senses. You know, one is the campaign was run incredibly entrepreneurially. People were told that if you work for Trump, you'll never get a job in Washington again, which is why he really wasn't able to hire a lot of people initially and why a lot of the responsibility for the campaign fell to people like myself who really just cared about him personally and wanted to make sure that he was able to do a competent job with the operations of a campaign that led to us doing a lot of things in an untraditional way. But we actually were able to make the dollars go a lot further, whether it was building a data operation or how we targeted advertisers or how we did our events. We were able to do it in a much different way.
当然。嗯，我会说这并非完全计划好的，而更具创业精神。我用"创业"来表示两种不同的意思。你知道，一方面，竞选活动是非常充满创业精神的。人们被告知如果你为特朗普工作，你在华盛顿再也找不到工作，这就是最初他无法雇佣很多人的原因，也是为什么很多竞选事务的责任都落在像我这样真正关心他个人，并希望确保他能胜任竞选活动运作的人身上，我们以一种非传统的方式做了很多事情。但我们实际上能够使资金产生更大的效益，无论是建立数据操作，还是如何定位广告商或举办活动。我们能够以一种非常不同的方式做到这一点。
But from a viability of the candidate perspective, I really give all the credit to him because what I saw with politicians is a lot of politicians will take polls and then moderate their perspectives. This is somebody who without pollsters and without any political experience really put forward a lot of points of view. And keep in mind, in a Republican primary, a lot of his viewpoints on trade were very heterodoxical. They were they were not what was conventionally thought of. And what I saw with Trump was that he was able to move the polls to him. And that was that was a talent and just a skill of persuasion and his willingness to kind of stick to the issues. I mean, at that point in time, I remember seeing polls that a legal immigration was not like a top five issue when he started the campaign by the middle to end of the campaign, people were really seeing the craziness that was happening at the Southern border and why that was critical to our national security. And so I think that for him, he found a lot of his message. And with him, he was not a perfectly always on message candidate. But what he did do was he was constantly evolving and learning and you know, and would learn from the different things that happened and constantly evolving to find ways to to persist. Amazing. Like a startup finding a product market fit.
从候选人的可行性角度来看，我非常赞赏他的努力，因为我在政治家身上看到的是很多政治家会根据民意调查来调整自己的观点。这个人没有借助民意调查，也没有任何政治经验，却能提出许多观点。请记住，在共和党初选中，他关于贸易的观点非常离经叛道，不是大家通常想到的那种观点。我看到特朗普的做法是，他能够引导民意走向他的方向。这是他的天才和说服力的才能，同时他也愿意坚持自己的立场。我记得当时的民意调查显示，非法移民并不是排名前五的重要问题，但到了竞选末期，人们才真正意识到南部边境发生的疯狂局面，以及为什么这对我们的国家安全至关重要。因此，我认为对他来说，他找到了很多自己的立场。他并不总是一直坚持一个立场，但他不断发展和学习，从不同的事情中吸取经验，不断演变以找到持续存在的方式。就像一家初创公司寻找产品市场适应性一样，这真是令人惊叹。
And what's he like as a father in law? I'm curious. As a father in law, he's been great. You know, that obviously brought us a lot closer together, you know, until that time, our time was mostly they're playing golf together or we'd be gathered at family events. Working together was was was a different element of our relationship. But I think one of the benefits I had with him was that he knew I was always going to tell him the truth, whether I agreed with him or not. I also, I think one of the things he liked about me was that I was not obviously worked hard. I gave him straight answers and I didn't apply on things where I didn't feel like I had an expertise. So if you would ask me a question, and I didn't feel like I knew the answer, I would say, well, this is not my expertise. These are the people I would recommend. I speak to you to get perspective and let me bring you their their opinions. And so I think he saw me as somebody who was who was competent, obviously had his best interests at heart. Again, I wasn't accepting money for any of these jobs, so it wasn't doing it for for financial gain. And I just started to really believe in a lot of the policies that he was pushing and wanted to help him maybe translate it from a campaign speech to kind of technical policy and then see once he got the opportunity to help him implement it as well.
他作为岳父是什么样的？我很好奇。作为一个岳父，他非常好。你知道的，这显然让我们之间更加亲近，直到那个时候，我们大多数时间都是一起打高尔夫或者参加家庭活动。一起工作是我们关系中的一个不同的元素。但我认为我与他关系良好的一个好处是，他知道我总是会告诉他真实情况，无论我是否同意他的意见。我认为他喜欢我的一点是我显然是一个努力工作的人。我会给他直接的答案，而且在我对某些事情没有专业知识的情况下，我也不会妄加评论。所以如果他问我一个问题，而我觉得我不知道答案，我会说，这不是我的专业领域，我可以给你推荐一些人，让他们给你提供意见。因此，我认为他看到我是一个能力强、显然对他最好的利益有着在心的人。再说一遍，我没有接受任何工作的报酬，所以我不是为了经济利益而这么做。我开始真正相信他推动的许多政策，并希望帮助他将其从竞选演讲转化为具体政策，然后一旦他有机会实施，我也想帮助他实施这些政策。
That's really cool. Why did you agree to do Lex? And why are you doing the show today? We were kind of surprised to see you on Lex. And obviously, like Lex said, it was a very different conversation than I think any of us would have expected having the only exposure to you being through some sort of media channels. What's motivating you to kind of do this today before we get into it.
这真的很酷。为什么你同意参加Lex？为什么你今天要做节目？我们有些惊讶地看到你出现在Lex节目上。显然，就像Lex所说的，这次对话与我们之前通过媒体渠道了解到的你完全不同。在我们开始之前，是什么激励你今天做这个节目呢？
So Lex, again, him, my wife are friends and I really follow and listen to what he does. I think in society today, the news is kind of just one person's point of view and they're picking and choosing and editing what they put into it one way or the other. But the medium of the podcast is something that my personal consumption was growing with. And I felt like it was a place where you could have real conversations. I think the people who are listening to podcasts are people who are looking to have a more nuanced perspective on something and really want to try to understand something deeper. And I respect Lex. All my private conversations with him, I really enjoyed. And I love that he was really trying to find perspectives from people that maybe others didn't understand to try to bring greater understanding across. And so I agreed to do it after a while. I was really, really glad I did. And based on the great feedback I got there, my sense is that the podcast format is something that you could have a real conversation. You can go back and forth, you could argue, you could disagree. I think that that's where people really want to get their information from. So I turned out a lot of cable news or different interview requests, because I find that you can't have as nuanced a discussion. And I wish things were as simple as the black and white or the political slogans that people use. But the reality is things are a lot more nuanced.
所以Lex，再说一次，他，我的妻子与他是朋友，我真的很关注并听取他的所作所为。我认为在当今社会中，新闻有点像只有一个人的观点，他们在选择和编辑时一边倒地选择。但播客这种媒介是我个人消费的增长点。我觉得这是一个可以进行真正对话的地方。我认为那些听播客的人是那些希望对某件事有更多差异化看法并真正努力去理解更深层相关问题的人。我尊重Lex。在我与他的所有私下对话中，我都非常喜欢。我也喜欢他真的在努力寻找一些他人可能不理解的观点，以促进更广泛的理解。所以过了一段时间后我同意参加这个节目。我真的非常高兴我这样做了。根据我在那里收到的很好的反馈，我感觉播客这种格式是可以进行真实对话的。你可以反复交流，你可以争论，你可以有不同意见。我认为这才是人们真正想要获取信息的地方。所以我拒绝了很多有线新闻或不同的采访请求，因为我发现不能进行如此细致入微的讨论。我希望事情像黑白或人们使用的政治口号那样简单，但现实情况要复杂得多。
So when Shmoath reached out, I followed you guys and I've listened to you for a first time. I was really happy to come do it. Awesome. Well, thanks for doing it, sex. You want to kick us off on the Gaza conflict and framing up the present day?
当Shmoath联系到我时，我关注了你们，也是第一次听了你们的节目。我很高兴来能听听看。太棒了。好的，谢谢你们的合作，亲爱的。首先，你想从加沙冲突开始，给我们介绍一下目前的局势吗？
Sure. Based on what I've read, it seems like Israel has now formed a perimeter around Gaza City. They've sort of bisected Gaza between this north and south. And they've been trying to bomb entry or exit points from the Hamas tunnel network. And it seems like their strategy is to kind of gradually close in on that tunnel network and basically try and eliminate Hamas from sort of this northern part of Gaza. And then one assumes they'll move to the south. And I guess one other element to add to it is that while Israel is doing that, you're seeing protests both in the West and in the Arab or Muslim world, you're starting to see statements condemning Israel by leaders of these other countries in the region. I'd say the one by Turkey by Erdogan was notably harsh and threatening. But you're starting to see again, as Israel proceeds with this operation, you're starting to see more and more condemnation from various parts of the international community.
当然。根据我所读的内容，似乎以色列现在已经在加沙市周围建立了一道防线。他们可以说是将加沙划分为北部和南部两个部分。他们一直试图轰炸哈马斯地道网络的入口或出口点。他们的策略似乎是逐步逼近这个地道网络，基本上试图从加沙的北部消灭哈马斯。然后可以推测他们会转向南部。我想另外一个要补充的要素是，随着以色列的行动，你会看到西方和阿拉伯或穆斯林世界中的抗议活动，你会开始看到这个地区其他国家领导人谴责以色列的声明。我要说的是，埃尔多安（土耳其总统）的声明尤其强硬和威胁性。但随着以色列继续进行这个行动，你会开始看到越来越多来自国际社会各个角落的谴责声音。
So let's start with that is, you know, how do you assess what's happening on the ground? What do you think the prospects for success are? And how do you assess the risk that this sort of escalates horizontally in ways that are kind of hard to predict and could spiral out of control?
那么，我们首先来谈一下事情的现状，你知道，你如何评估目前的局势？你认为成功的前景如何？以及你如何评估这种横向升级的风险，这种风险很难预测并可能失控地螺旋上升？
Yeah. So there's a lot of different ways you can go with that. But I'll start with kind of the first question, which is, in the immediate aftermath of the attack, my biggest concern was that Israel was clearly caught off guard from an intelligence and military perspective with the attack. And the attacks were, they shook a lot of people, they were very, very heinous beyond really comprehension. It's crazy, the more and more stuff that comes out. And we were seeing a lot of it in real time, thanks to the fact that right now with X and what Elon's done there to not try to censor things in the way that it was happening before. So we were all getting a lot of information real time. And it was really pulling at a lot of people's heartstrings.
是的。所以有很多不同的方式可以处理这个问题。但我会从第一个问题开始，那就是，在袭击之后的立即反应中，我最担心的是以色列在情报和军事层面上显然被袭击所措手不及。这些袭击震撼了许多人，它们非常残忍，超出了人们的理解能力。这真的太疯狂了，越来越多的事实浮出水面。而且由于现在有X以及伊隆在那方面所做的事情，我们能实时看到很多信息，不再像以前那样被审查了。所以我们都在实时获取了很多信息。这些信息让很多人的心都被牵动了起来。
My big fear initially was that Israel would react emotionally as opposed to pragmatically. And I think that the steps that they've taken since then have been very wise. I think the fact that they took their time and have been very methodical about getting their supply lines ready about working had a garner as much international support.
我最初的担心是以色列会情绪化地反应，而不是务实地反应。我认为自那以后他们所采取的步骤非常明智。他们花费了时间，有条不紊地准备供应线，并努力获得尽可能多的国际支持。
I mean, you have to remember these weren't just Israeli citizens that were killed. These were American citizens, they were German citizens, they were Thai citizens, they were UK citizens, and the hostages as well are not just Israeli citizens. So I think that Israel took its time to get the military operation set. I've seen them go slowly methodically. I mean, Gaza is a very, very complicated place. I mean, we studied it for four years. We were very closely watching all the different incursions we managed to moss and their malicious activities very, very closely to avoid situations like this.
我的意思是，你必须记住，这些被杀的不仅仅是以色列公民。他们还有美国公民、德国公民、泰国公民、英国公民，还有被劫持的人也不仅仅是以色列公民。所以我认为以色列花了时间来进行军事行动的设置。我见过他们以很慢、循序渐进的方式进行。我是说，加沙是一个非常非常复杂的地方。我是说，我们研究了它四年。我们非常密切地观察了所有不同的入侵行动，我们设法非常非常紧密地监视他们的恶意活动，以避免像这样的情况发生。
And the place is booby trap, like crazy. And so I do think the fact that the Israelis have taken their time and been very methodical. And I've come up with a strategy has given me more hope. I wake up and I look to see praying there hasn't been more casualties in Israel. And the hope is that they continue to do it in the best way possible.
这个地方就像疯子一样布满了陷阱。因此我认为，以色列人花费了相当的时间和十分系统的方法，而且他们制定了一种策略，这给了我更多的希望。当我醒来时，我希望看到在以色列没有更多的伤亡。希望他们继续以最好的方式继续进行。
So I think that the goal for them is really the elimination of Hamas. I think that the big point that I really want to make in the Lex podcast, which is why I went back to really do the point was that the people who are protesting in favor of the Palestinians a lot of the Israelis and Palestinians want the same thing, which is they want security for Israel and a better life for the Palestinians. And I think what people have fair able to really grasp for a long time is that Hamas has been the root cause of a lot of the bad lives for the Palestinians.
我认为他们的目标是真正消灭哈马斯。我认为我在Lex播客中想要传达的重要观点是，许多以色列人和巴勒斯坦人支持巴勒斯坦人的抗议活动，他们的共同愿望是为以色列提供安全，并为巴勒斯坦人提供更好的生活。而人们长时间以来没有真正理解的是，哈马斯是导致巴勒斯坦人生活艰难的根本原因。
If you think about Gaza before this recent for October 7th, I mean, over half the population lived under the poverty line. People were really trapped there and people would blame Israel for the blockade. But what's also happened over the last 30 days is a lot of the worst fears that we had during the administration or things that Israel would be saying have totally been proven true. I mean, you've seen now, I'm going to some of these schoolhouses where there's 500 or 50 different rocket launchers in the schoolhouses, the hospitals, all the terrorists that they've captured that they're interrogating are saying, well, that's where the military headquarters are.
如果你想到10月7日之前的加沙，我的意思是，超过一半的人口生活在贫困线以下。人们在那里真的被困住了，人们会指责以色列的封锁。但在过去的30天里，我们的许多最糟糕的担忧或以色列可能会说的事情都被完全证明是真实的。我的意思是，你现在已经看到了，我去过一些学校，那里有500个或50个不同的火箭发射器，医院里，他们正在审讯的所有恐怖分子都说，那里是军事总部。
Now we're learning about this tunnel network, which they're saying is hundreds of miles of tunnels underground. Well, that's why Israel wasn't allowing cement and a lot of these materials and the cement that went in, which was supposed to build houses for the people of Gaza was then stolen by Hamas to build these tunnels. The pipes that went in to fix the water were then taken and turned into two rockets. The fuel was stolen and not used for the hospitals or for people to have better lives. It was stolen for them to operate their tunnel network and then to fuel the rocket. So it's a situation that that really does have to be dealt with.
现在我们正在了解这个隧道网络，据他们说，这是一个地下数百英里的隧道。这就是为什么以色列不允许水泥和许多其他材料进入，而进来的水泥本应用于为加沙人民建造房屋，却被哈马斯偷偷用来建造这些隧道。为修理水管而进入的材料被拿去制造了两枚火箭。燃料被盗用而不是用于医院或改善人民生活，而是被用来运作他们的隧道网络和发射火箭。因此，这是一个必须解决的情况。
Again, Israel, you guys are no poker players. So Israel definitely has the stronger hand to play here. So I think time is on the one hand in their favor. But on the other hand, obviously, the international community has historically been very anti-Israel and anti-Semitic in the way that they've approached a lot of these skirmishes to date. But I will say, I think there's been more international support for Israel this time than I've ever seen. And I do think that that's a very important thing.
再说一次，以色列，你们绝不是好的扑克牌手。因此，以色列在这里明显是拥有更强的牌局。所以我认为时间在一方面对他们有利。但另一方面，显然，国际社会在处理许多之前的冲突时一直非常反以色列和反犹太主义。但我要说的是，我觉得这次国际上对以色列的支持比我以往见过的都更多。我认为这是非常重要的事情。
So that's maybe general, if there were some of the specific questions that you wanted to get to and there, I can. What about the risk of horizontal escalation? This is talking about that for a second, because you do hear, I think, a growing chorus of countries who are denouncing Israel. They're saying that this is collective punishment, that the bombing of Gaza is indiscriminate. They want it to stop. There's. Genocide. Genocide.
那可能是普遍情况，如果你有一些具体问题想要讨论的话，我可以回答。在谈论水平升级的风险时，由于你会听到越来越多的国家谴责以色列，认为他们在加沙的轰炸是无差别的集体惩罚，并希望这一行动停止。有人称之为种族灭绝。种族灭绝。
Yeah, I'm not saying I agree with that rhetoric, but you do hear it. There's an effort at the UN to pass the ceasefire resolution. So there's a lot of people who want the ceasefire and there's a lot of international pressure for that. And then you've heard threats from, again, Erdogan and Turkey that if there's not a ceasefire at some point, they're going to have to get involved. They're going to have to act. Iran has said similar kinds of things, although I think it's pretty clear they don't want to get involved. They don't want this to escalate into a wider regional war, but they've sort of intimated that if the bombing continues, that they might have to take action, they might feel pressure to do that.
是的，我并不是说我同意那种言论，但你确实会听到它。在联合国有努力通过停火决议。所以有很多人希望停火，也有很多国际压力要求停火。然后你可能听到了来自埃尔多安和土耳其的威胁，如果某个时候没有停火，他们将不得不参与其中。伊朗也说了类似的话，尽管我认为他们很明显不想卷入其中。他们不希望事态升级成更大范围的地区战争，但他们暗示如果轰炸持续下去，他们可能不得不采取行动，他们可能会感到压力去那样做。
So I guess one question there is, is time on Israel's side? It does seem like, again, there's more pressure to stop the military operation over time, as opposed to less. Yeah, so the answer is, is everyone's talking their book. And that's what they should be doing. They're talking to their populations. The question is what people will actually do.
所以我猜有一个问题在这里，时间对以色列来说是有利的吗？看起来，随着时间的推移，似乎有更多的压力来停止军事行动而不是减少压力。是的，所以答案是，每个人都在说自己的观点。这是他们应该做的。他们正在与他们的国民交流。问题是人们实际上会采取什么行动。
I would say that the hardest thing for us all is, obviously, you see civilians in Gaza who are being used as human shields. And the last thing that anyone wants is for more civilian deaths to occur. It's funny this morning, I was speaking to a friend in Israel who was telling me that yesterday there was a major evacuation of civilians in Gaza. And a lot of people are surprised that the Israeli defense forces were basically putting themselves in between the Hamas militants and the Gaza civilians to protect them and open up a corridor. And again, one thing that Israel's done, I think a good job of, is getting out a lot of the facts about how they've been warning the Gaza civilians to flee, he asked them to go. And what happened was Hamas was shooting them down with snipers and trying to prevent them from going, because they wanted that to stay in place as human shields in the schools and the hospitals, where they were conducting their terror activities.
我觉得对我们所有人来说最难的事情，显然就是看到加沙的平民被用作人质。而没有人希望发生更多的平民死亡。今天早上有趣的是，我和一个在以色列的朋友交谈，他告诉我昨天在加沙发生了大规模的平民疏散。很多人对以色列国防军实际上把自己置于哈马斯武装分子和加沙平民之间以保护他们并开辟一个通道感到惊讶。以色列做得很好的一件事是，我认为他们已经让很多关于警告加沙平民逃离的事实传开，他们要求他们离开。然而哈马斯却用狙击手射击他们，试图阻止他们离开，因为他们希望把他们留在学校和医院等地作为人质，继续进行他们的恐怖活动。
And so what was interesting to me was, well, my friend was telling me, speaking to a friend of his, who was a soldier, was that is that a lot of the civilians are really thanking them for liberating them from Hamas and for risking their lives to help them get out of Gaza. And a lot of these people, again, they've been prisoners to Hamas more than anything else for a long time. And they want to see themselves out of there so they can perhaps have a better opportunity to live a better life.
所以对我来说有趣的是，我的朋友告诉我，他和一个朋友聊天，那个朋友是士兵。他说很多平民真的感谢他们解放他们脱离哈马斯，并愿意冒着生命危险帮助他们离开加沙。很多这些人，长时间以来实际上一直是哈马斯的囚徒。他们希望能够离开那里，也许可以有更好的生活机会。
And so I think that the current region, I think the biggest immediate threat is from Hezbollah, the North, I think that's been, I think Israel going to full ready alert. It was a really smart thing. I think the US moving the battle carriers there, I think was also good. I think the statements from the US administration were strong upfront. Again, whether people believe that they'll back up those statements is another thing, because they do have a little bit of credibility deficit in the region based on what they've done over the last couple of years. But I think that's all been very helpful in kind of pushing, pushing Iran back and sending a strong message to Hezbollah, which is if you want to attack Israel, don't do it when they're at full military readiness. Israel's a nuclear power. And I think everyone is starting to realize that this has been Iran trying to manipulate things. And as long as they think there's a threat that you're not going to go after one of their proxies, but you may go after them, that's been the best way of keeping de-escalation.
我认为当前地区最大的直接威胁来自真主党（Hezbollah），北部地区是最紧迫的。我认为以色列采取全面警戒状态是明智之举。我认为美国将航母调遣到该地区也是好事。美国政府的声明也很强硬。不过，人们是否相信他们会兑现这些声明另当别论，因为根据他们在过去几年所做的事情，他们在该地区的信誉有些赤字。但是我认为所有这些都对推动伊朗后退并向真主党发出强烈信息非常有帮助，这个信息是：如果你想攻击以色列，不要选择他们处于全面军事准备状态时。以色列是一个核大国。我认为每个人都开始意识到这是伊朗试图操纵局势。只要他们认为你可能不会对他们的代理人动手，但可能会对他们本人动手，这将是保持缓和局势的最佳途径。
I think with Turkey and others, I've spent many hours with Erdogan personally talking about Gaza. And I know that he has a big heart for the Palestinian people. He hates to see their suffering. And it's also good politics from him. He's also from a Muslim brotherhood leading party. But I think it is hard and hard. He does have to acknowledge that a lot of their plight is led to by bad governance. He may not want to admit it publicly, but the reality is, is the best way to improve the lives of the people of Gaza is to eliminate Hamas and put in place a structure where people can finally have the opportunity to live more freely and make better lives for themselves.
我认为，与土耳其和其他国家一起，我与埃尔多安亲自谈论加沙问题花了很多时间。我知道他对巴勒斯坦人有着无比的关怀，他不愿看到他们的苦难。这对他来说也是明智的政治选择，因为他本身来自穆斯林兄弟会领导的政党。但我认为这是艰难的。他必须承认他们的困境很大程度上是由糟糕的治理所导致的。他可能不愿公开承认，但事实是，改善加沙人民的生活最好的方式就是消灭哈马斯，并建立一个民众能够自由生活并改善生活状况的结构。
Jared, you said something that I think is really interesting. You said, Erdogan has a soft spot for the Palestinians. Can I just take that concept and just, can you explain the historical context of Arabs, the Arab world and their relationship with the Palestinians? Because it's definitely had its ebbs and flows over the arc of history. How do people think about it as just broadly speaking, just in terms of the big historical arcs that have shaped this relationship between Arabs and Palestinians specifically?
贾里德，你说的一些话我觉得非常有趣。你说埃尔多安对巴勒斯坦人有特殊情感。我能否就这个概念进行一下解释，你能否解释一下阿拉伯人、阿拉伯世界与巴勒斯坦人的历史背景？因为在历史的长河中，这种关系一直有起伏变化。人们普遍如何看待这种关系，从大历史趋势的角度来说，即阿拉伯人与巴勒斯坦人之间的关系是如何形成的？
That's a question we can spend about three days talking about, but I'll try to give you a very quick version of it. A lot of this goes back really to people say it goes back to a lot of times. But I think that we have to probably go back to, and I'll try to do this very quick, is really in 1948, which was a complicated time. It's post-Holocaust, post-World War II. Again, the Middle East, really in the early 1900s, was created by a lot of arbitrary lines drawn by foreigners.
这是一个我们可以花大约三天来讨论的问题，但我会尽量给你一个非常简短的版本。很多这些问题实际上可以追溯到很多年前。但我认为我们可能需要回溯到1948年，这是一个非常复杂的时期。那时已经过了大屠杀，第二次世界大战已经结束。此外，中东地区在20世纪早期是由很多外国人任意划分的。
You had a situation where Israel, the UN puts forth a partition plan, Israel, they're willing to recognize Israel as a state for the Jewish people and also give a state to the Palestinians. The Arabs reject that and attack Israel. There's a whole war. During that war, it was flared up really by General Nasser from Egypt, who at the time was the leader of the Muslim world. During that war, Israel was able to defy the odds and win. A lot of Palestinians were either forced from their homes or displaced from their homes. There's versions where they say the Arabs said, leave your homes. Then when the war is over, you're going to come back and take everything. Some Arabs stayed in their homes. Actually, today there are Israeli citizens with full equal rights as other Israelis. So that happened.
你说的情况是这样的：联合国提出了一项分割计划，以色列愿意承认以色列作为犹太人的国家，并给巴勒斯坦人一个国家。然而阿拉伯人拒绝了这个计划，还对以色列发动了进攻，引发了一场完整的战争。在战争期间，埃及的纳赛尔将军（当时是穆斯林世界的领导人）点燃了战争。尽管胜算不大，但以色列成功地脱颖而出并获胜。许多巴勒斯坦人要么被迫离开家园，要么被迫流离失所。有些版本中说阿拉伯人说，离开你们的家园，战争结束后你们可以回来并拿回一切。一些阿拉伯人留在了自己的家中。事实上，今天有些阿拉伯人成为以色列公民，享有与其他以色列人一样的平等权利。所以就发生了这样的情况。
Then in 1967, that's when Egypt attacked again. During that war, again, Israel miraculously won. That was really the time where Israel was able to expand their territory. They took over the West Bank at the time, which didn't belong to the Palestinians as much as it belonged to Jordan. It was part of Trans-Jordan at the time. They also gained control of the Gaza Strip, which also was previously administered by Egypt. Although when Egypt was administering it, they didn't take it as their territory. They never granted citizenship to the people who were there.
然后在1967年，埃及再次发动了攻击。在那场战争中，以色列再次奇迹般地获胜。那真的是以色列能够扩大领土的时期。当时他们占领了约旦河西岸，这里与其说是巴勒斯坦人的领土，不如说是属于约旦的一部分。那时西岸是属于约旦时期的。他们还控制了加沙地带，该地带以前由埃及管理。尽管埃及管理时，并没有将其视为他们的领土。他们从未为当地居民授予公民身份。
So between 1948 and 1967, when the Six-Day War occurred, most of the leaders in the Arab world enjoyed leaving this issue out. It was a great way to stoke nationalism. It was a very easy political issue for them to have, to say, well, we need to do this and to fight for the Palestinian people. So in a lot of ways, there was a way to deflect their shortcomings at home and to justify certain actions they were taking because they were fighting for this group of people.
因此，在1948年至1967年之间，即第三次中东战争发生之前，大部分阿拉伯世界的领导人都喜欢回避这个问题。这是一种很好的激发民族主义的方式。对他们来说，这是一个非常容易利用的政治问题，他们可以声称我们需要这样做，并为巴勒斯坦人民而战。因此，在很多方面，他们可以转移对自身不足的批评，并为他们所采取的某些行动辩护，因为他们在为这个群体而战。
Then it gets really interesting after the Six-Day War. So this was the second time that the Arab countries had failed to destroy Israel, which is what they had promised they would do. So there's a young terrorist at the time named Yasser Arafat. He was part of a party called Fatah. What he said is, all these Arab leaders, they're lying to, they're failing you, I'm going to be the one to start creating a liberation and opportunity for the Palestinian people. So he took on this mantle, was able to use his Fatah group and some pretty thuggery ways to take over the Palestinian Liberation Organization, which is a way that he got some international claim.
然后，在六日战争之后，情况变得非常有趣。这是阿拉伯国家第二次未能摧毁以色列，而这正是他们承诺要做的。当时有一个年轻的恐怖分子叫亚西尔·阿拉法特。他是一个名为法塔赫的党派的成员。他说，所有这些阿拉伯领导人都在欺骗你们，他们失败了，而我将成为为巴勒斯坦人民创造解放和机会的那个人。于是他承担起这个责任，利用他的法塔赫组织和一些相当暴力的手段掌控了巴勒斯坦解放组织，这样他获得了一些国际认可。
At the time, he was doing that from Jordan. So this about 1968, 1969, they caused so much trouble in Jordan that King Hussein at the time, who's King Abdullah's father, who really was a very, very special diplomat and leader in the Middle East, got so fed up with Arafat. At the time, he was causing trouble. It was steering people away, people wouldn't invest there. It was hurting terrorism. And then they took a little further, they tried to assassinate him, which was probably the final straw. So the Jordanian leader said, get these people the hell out of my country. It was a big clash between the PLO and Fatah terrorists and then the Jordanian police and military. And they were able to expel them.
当时，他是从约旦那里进行这个活动的。所以大约是在1968年、1969年，他们在约旦制造了很多麻烦，以至于当时的国王侯赛因，也就是现任国王阿卜杜拉的父亲，他可是中东地区一位非常特殊的外交家和领导人，对阿拉法特感到非常厌烦。当时，阿拉法特一直在制造麻烦，使人们远离投资在那里。这对反恐工作造成了伤害。然后，他们更进一步，试图暗杀他，这可能是最后一根稻草。于是，约旦的领导人说，把这些人从我的国家赶出去。巴勒斯坦解放组织（PLO）和法塔赫（Fatah）恐怖分子与约旦警察和军队发生了激烈冲突。他们成功将他们驱逐出境。
And then the Palestinians went to Lebanon. That's where Yasser Arafat was. So they were there for about 12 years. Again, they went back to their old ways of fermenting radicalism and finding ways to cause trouble. When Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982, then Yasser Arafat fled again, this time to Tunisia. In Tunisia, they were living pretty well as a beachfront place. They're in these beautiful villas on the beach. And they kind of became a little bit disconnected from the Palestinian people. But there was a lot of resentment of the broader Arab world, because they felt like, again, the Arab world didn't really say they were for the Palestinian people, but never really stood up for them in the way that they felt like they deserved.
然后巴勒斯坦人去了黎巴嫩，那里有亚西尔·阿拉法特。所以他们在那里待了大约12年。再次，他们恢复了以往的激进主义思想，并寻找方法制造麻烦。当以色列在1982年入侵黎巴嫩时，亚西尔·阿拉法特再次逃离，这次去了突尼斯。在突尼斯，他们过得相当不错，住在沿海地区。他们住在美丽的海滩别墅里。他们有点与巴勒斯坦人民脱离联系。但是他们对整个阿拉伯世界充满了怨恨，因为他们感觉阿拉伯世界并没有真正支持巴勒斯坦人，也没有像他们认为应得的那样为他们站出来。
So it took until about 1988 that finally, this is 40 years after 1948, the War of Independence, where the PLO was finally able to get the Arab League to say, and this is really because Jordan was just like done with this issue, to say, okay, we're going to acknowledge that this land here should become a Palestinian state.
因此，直到大约1988年，也就是以色列独立战争之后40年，巴勒斯坦解放组织终于成功说服阿拉伯联盟，这主要是因为约旦对这个问题已经厌烦了，承认这片土地应该成为一个巴勒斯坦国家。
So the notion of a Palestinian state really didn't emerge until about 1987, 1988, which is the same time that Hamas actually came about.
因此，巴勒斯坦国的概念真正出现在1987年、1988年左右，与哈马斯的成立时间相同。
And they came about really from, they were not sure of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. And their whole thing was basically, we're going to do full terrorism in order to prevent any compromise or any deals with Israel.
他们其实是因为对埃及穆斯林兄弟会不确定而产生的。他们的目标基本上就是要通过全面实施恐怖主义来阻止与以色列的任何妥协或者交易。尽量易读的翻译：他们的成立主要是出于对埃及穆斯林兄弟会的怀疑，并且他们的整个目的基本上就是通过全面采取恐怖主义手段来阻止与以色列达成任何妥协或交易。
So then you go to 1991, which is a very, very important time for the Palestinians, mostly because Saddam Hussein in Iraq invades Kuwait. And that was very scary for a lot of the Arab leaders, right?
所以然后你回到了1991年，这对巴勒斯坦人来说是一个非常非常重要的时期，主要是因为伊拉克的萨达姆·侯赛因入侵科威特。这对许多阿拉伯领导人来说非常可怕，对吗？
They didn't want they did fear Saddam. He was a he was seen as the radical, our thought, and the Palestinian leadership back Saddam Hussein, mostly because they knew that he was seen as the revolutionary and popular with the more common man.
他们不希望支持萨达姆，他们害怕他。由于他被视为激进者，我们认为巴勒斯坦领导层支持萨达姆·侯赛因，主要是因为他被普通民众视为革命者并具有较高的人气。
And this pissed off every single Gulf leader, because they basically said, wait, this guy, if he's going to take over Kuwait, he could come for Saudi Arabia, he'd come for UAE.
这让所有海湾国家领导人都感到恼火，因为他们基本上说，等一下，这个人，如果他要控制科威特，他也可能会来攻打沙特阿拉伯，攻打阿联酋。
So they were all very against that. And at the time, there's about over 200,000 Palestinians in Kuwait.
他们当时都对此非常反对。当时，科威特有超过20万巴勒斯坦人。
What happened at that time, though, was that that made the Palestinian leadership so weak because a lot of the Arab countries cut off the funding was just done with them.
然而，当时发生的事情是，这使得巴勒斯坦领导力量变得很弱，因为许多阿拉伯国家停止了对他们的资金援助。
And that's really what led to the Oslo courts. So the Oslo courts happened not because our fought necessarily.
这实际上就是导致奥斯陆法庭成立的原因。因此，奥斯陆法庭的成立并不是因为我们强行争斗。
And all of a sudden said, after 37 or 27 years of trying, terror and pushing forward, he basically ran out of other options. And this was his only way to get some form of legitimacy.
突然间，经过37或27年的努力、恐惧和坚持不懈，他基本上没有其他选择。这是他获得某种合法性的唯一途径。
So they dropped from their charter, the whole notion of destroying Israel and said, let's try to create this area where we can have governance and try this whole effort for Palestinian state.
所以他们放弃了损害以色列的整个构想，并表示，让我们试试创建一个可以进行治理并为巴勒斯坦国家进行努力的地区。
So that's really kind of that's a long short version of kind of how we got to then.
所以这其实就是一个相对简短版本，就是大致说明了我们是怎样走到那一步的。
And then in the last, I'd say 30 years, the big change that I would say between then and today is that you have a lot, you have a new Middle East forming and a lot of the work we did in the Trump administration was really to help what I'd call the new Middle East emerge, where you have a lot of economic opportunities now happening in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar.
在过去的30年里，我认为最大的变化是，旧中东正在逐渐转变为新中东，而特朗普政府所做的大部分工作实际上是为了帮助新中东的形成。现在，沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋和卡塔尔等地正在出现许多经济机会。
There's been a massive mind shift where if you go kind of post Arab Spring, a lot of these leaders are saying, how do we create opportunity for people when I got into my job in 2017, all the experts were saying to me, the big divide in the Middle East is between the Suis and the Shias.
自阿拉伯之春后，已经发生了一次巨大的思维转变。许多领导人正在说，当我在2017年就职时，所有专家都告诉我，在中东地区的主要分歧是逊尼派和什叶派之间的。我们要如何为人们创造机会呢？
And when I got there, I said, no, no, no, the divide is between leaders who want to give opportunity and betterment of life to their people and people who want to use religion or whatever issue they want to hold on to from the past in order to deflect from their shortcomings and justify bad leadership.
当我到那里的时候，我说，不，不，不，分歧在于那些想要给予人民机会和改善生活的领导者与那些想要利用宗教或过去的其他问题来转移注意力，以掩饰他们的不足并为糟糕的领导辩护的人之间。
So I think what's happened today is you have a lot of the Gulf countries really wanting to see this issue get resolved, which is different than you had in Camp David in 2000 when Bill Clinton was getting close to a deal with Yasser Arafat.
所以我认为今天发生的事情是，你有许多海湾国家真的希望看到这个问题得到解决，这与2000年克林顿接近与亚拉法特达成协议时的情况不同。
I think the Saudis and others at the time didn't want this issue to go away. But now the issue is really no longer useful for the Arabs. The only people it's useful to, quite frankly, is Iran.
我认为，当时沙特阿拉伯和其他人并不希望这个问题消失。但现在，这个问题对于阿拉伯国家来说真的不再有用了。坦率地说，唯一从中获益的是伊朗。
And that's why they've been backing Hamas and Hezbollah and all these other functions in order to continue their project of instability.
这就是为什么他们一直支持哈马斯、真主党和所有其他组织，以继续他们的不稳定项目。
So the way I kind of view this period right now is that the Middle East today is way stronger than it's been in the past.
所以，我对当前时期的看法是，中东地区如今比过去任何时候都更加强大。
And this is what I would say the last gasp of Iran and those who have pushed for destabilization and kind of this whole, Islamist jihadist project at the expense of kind of a collaborative Middle East, which within will create a lot of opportunity for the next generation to really thrive.
这可以说是伊朗以及那些推动破坏稳定、从而整个伊斯兰圣战项目在中东合作进程中占据主导地位的人们的最后挣扎。而这种合作将为下一代创造许多繁荣的机会。
Jared, isn't there like at this point then like is it hard or easy to create an objective target?
杰里德，在这一点上，那是否意味着很难或很容易制定一个客观目标呢？
We call individuals that Israel wants to target Hamas, but there's no card-carrying members of Hamas. You don't wear a jacket that says I'm a member of Hamas and walk around with an ID card and there are some folks who are sympathetic who believe that Hamas represents a resistance movement.
我们称以色列想要打击的个人为哈马斯，但哈马斯没有持卡成员。你不会穿着印有“我是哈马斯成员”的外套，带着身份证四处走动，还有一些人表示同情，认为哈马斯代表了一种抵抗运动。
There are some folks who obviously feel terrorized and ruled over. And there are some folks who support the cause but don't pull the trigger. There are some folks who pull the trigger but don't want to support the cause that are being forced to by some reports.
有一些人显然感到被恐吓和统治。还有一些人支持这个事业，但并不亲自行动。有些人扣动扳机，却不愿意支持这个因某些报道而被迫的事业。
How easy and how hard is it to really direct a military operation at such a fluid population that it's very hard to ID and target.
在一个如此流动的人口中，要真正指挥一次军事行动有多么容易和多么困难，因为很难确定和定位目标。
And as we've seen in years past, there's always another group that seems to emerge. You cut off one group, you get rid of al-Qaeda, ISIS emerges, and there's this almost like fluid transition of this intention. And particularly in this Gaza community, it's very difficult perhaps to distinguish between who's Hamas and who's not Hamas.
正如我们在过去多年中所见，似乎总会有另一个新团体出现。你剿灭一个团体，像基地组织那样，伊斯兰国崛起；这个意图似乎几乎是流动的过渡。特别是在加沙社区，很难区分谁是哈马斯，谁不是哈马斯。
So how do you actually achieve the objective there? And how does the military target? Yeah, so that's probably the most important question that I think people have to really be thinking about as we kind of enter this phase. So how do you do this in the short term and then the long term? And so you can't kill your way out of an ideology but there obviously are some bad leaders at the top who are culpable who are military targets. And I imagine that it's really knowing the capabilities of Israel and the Assad.
那么，你们实际上如何实现这个目标呢？军方如何定位目标？是的，这可能是人们必须认真考虑的最重要的问题，因为我们正在进入这个阶段。那么，短期和长期内你们如何做到这一点呢？当然，你不能仅靠杀戮来消除一种意识形态，但显然有一些顶层的恶劣领导者是有罪的，他们是军事目标。我想应该了解以色列和阿萨德的能力。
It's just a matter of when and how as opposed to anything else. But then you have a lot of mid-level and younger members of this group. And I do think that a lot of these people are in this situation more circumstantially. I think this is what they've been taught to believe. I think this is really the place where and this was the system in Gaza where if you wanted to advance and live a better life, then you really had to succumb to this tiered system. So how deep the ideology is, people will debate that in different ways.
这只是一个关于何时和如何的问题，与其他任何事情相比都是如此。但是，这个团体中有许多中层和年轻成员。我认为很多人处境都是受到环境的影响。我认为这是他们被教导要相信的东西。我认为这是加沙的体系，在那里，如果你想提升和过上更好的生活，你必须顺从这个分级体系。所以人们对这种意识形态的深度有不同的争议。
If you go back to 2016 in the campaign when we were dealing with ISIS, the talking point that everyone used was you have to defeat the territorial caliphate of ISIS and then you have to win the long-term battle against extremism. One of the things that President Trump did when he went to Saudi Arabia in 2017, the reason we went there was that the Middle East was basically on fire. I mean, if you had ISIS had to caliphate the size of Ohio, they were ruling over 8 million people, they were beheading journalists and killing Christians. Syria was in a civil war where 500,000 people were killed, a lot of Muslims and you didn't see the same protests on college campuses. When that was happening, Assad was gassing his own people.
如果回顾到2016年的竞选活动，当时我们面对ISIS（伊斯兰国）的时候，每个人谈论的重点都是你必须击败ISIS的领土哈里发（地方统治者），然后你还要在对抗极端主义的长期战斗中获胜。当特朗普总统在2017年去沙特阿拉伯的时候，我们之所以前往那里，是因为中东地区基本上处于火并状态。我的意思是，如果ISIS的哈里发领土和俄亥俄州一样大，他们统治着800万人口，斩首记者和杀害基督徒。叙利亚正处于内战中，已有50万人死亡，其中很多是穆斯林，但你并没有在大学校园中看到相同的抗议声音。在那个时候，阿萨德正在对自己的人民使用毒气。
Libya was destabilized. Yemen was destabilized and Iran was on a glide path to a nuclear weapon having just been given $150 billion in cash through the disastrous JCPOA deal that the Kerry and Obama negotiated. So it was a mess. And so Trump went there and basically was pretty tough with what he said. And he said, this isn't our problem, this isn't your problem, this is all of our problem. And we need to root this ideology, your homes get it out of your mosques, get it out of this earth. And the king of Saudi Arabia stood up at the time and said, there's no glory and death. And that was really important.
利比亚变得不稳定。也门变得不稳定，伊朗由于可怕的JCPOA协议，刚刚获得了1500亿美元的现金来发展核武器。所以当时情况一团糟。特朗普去了那里，并且言辞相当严厉。他说，这不仅是我们的问题，也不只是你们的问题，而是我们所有人的问题。我们需要将这种意识形态根除，从你们家中、清除出清你们的清真寺，从这片土地清除出去。当时，沙特阿拉伯国王站起来说，死亡没有荣耀。这一点非常重要。
Two of the big deals that came out of that, people talked about the big investments, did over $500 billion of investments in arms sales with Saudi Arabia that created a lot of US jobs. But the two agreements we made that didn't get a lot of coverage during that time was that we did a counter-terra finance center that we set up, where we got all the Gulf countries to really allow Treasury to work closely with their banks to stop a lot of the funding to the terrorist organizations. And then these kind of borderline organizations.
在那次事件中，有两项重要交易引起了人们的关注，即美国与沙特阿拉伯达成的超过5000亿美元的军火销售投资，为美国创造了许多就业机会。但在那段时间里，我们还达成了另外两项协议，却没有得到很多报道。其中一个是我们设立的反恐融资中心，通过与海湾国家的银行密切合作，有效地停止向恐怖组织提供资金。另一个协议涉及一些类似恐怖组织的边缘组织。
And the second one was in Saudi Arabia, which is the custodian of the twoist holy sites in Islam, Mecca, Medina. They started a counter extremism center where basically they were combating online radicalization that was occurring. And if you remember in the US in 2016, we had the San Bernardino shooting, we had the Pulse nightclub shooting and a lot of people being radicalized online.
第二个例子发生在沙特阿拉伯，该国是伊斯兰教两个最圣地——麦加和麦地那的监护人。他们建立了一个反极端主义中心，主要是为了对抗在网络上正在发生的激进化现象。如果你还记得，在2016年美国发生了圣贝纳迪诺击案和脉冲夜总会击案，很多人都是在网络上被激进化的。
One of the things that I'm very proud of from the Trump administration is the work that we did to really help Saudi Arabia change their trajectory. And what I realized quickly was that in the US, we just did not have the capabilities to win the long-term ideological battle ourselves. So we could be mad at, you know, Saudi for some of the things that they've done in the past, but they were the most powerful partner we could have in order to try to combat the radicalization that was occurring both in terms of stopping the funding, but also, you know, replacing the clerics who were doing the radicalization with the clerics who were restoring Islam to a more peaceful and more proper place.
我非常自豪特朗普政府所做的一件事，那就是我们在帮助沙特阿拉伯改变他们的发展轨迹方面做出的贡献。我很快意识到，在美国，我们自己没有能力赢得长期的意识形态斗争。所以，尽管我们对沙特阿拉伯过去所做的一些事情感到愤怒，但他们是我们在试图对抗发生的极端化方面所能拥有的最强大的合作伙伴，既可以停止资金流动，也可以用那些能够恢复伊斯兰教到一个更和平和适当位置的神职人员取代那些引发极端主义的神职人员。
So that was something that that's really current. It's made a big difference. I was just in Saudi Arabia a couple weeks ago at their big investment conference. And what was really exciting to me was I was meeting with a lot of the younger Saudi entrepreneurs.
所以那是一件非常时髦的事情。它带来了很大的变化。几周前我刚刚参加了沙特阿拉伯的一次重大投资会议。对我来说真的很激动的是，我与很多年轻的沙特企业家会面了。
And I did a conference in Bahrain to talk about the Palestinians in 2019. And one of the big challenges we had when we were putting that together is we were thinking about who were the role models for these young Palestinian kids? And in the Muslim world, they had some sports stars, they had some business leaders, but it wasn't really people who were necessarily relatable to a lot of the younger generation.
我在2019年在巴林举办了一次关于巴勒斯坦人的会议。在筹备会议的过程中，我们遇到了一个重大挑战，那就是考虑到这些年轻巴勒斯坦孩子们的榜样是谁？在穆斯林世界中，他们有一些体育明星和商业领袖，但对于许多年轻一代来说，这些人并不一定是可以与之产生共鸣的人物。
In Saudi, I was at an event with all these young tech entrepreneurs there who are building amazing companies, a lot of unicorns there. They're doing a lot of the companies that are dominant in the US and in Asia. And now they're building them for the Middle East there. And it's very, very exciting. And these really are the next generation of role models for a lot of these kids.
在沙特，我参加了一个活动，那里有许多年轻的科技创业者，他们正在建立令人惊叹的公司，其中许多公司是美国和亚洲市场的主导力量。现在他们正在为中东地区建立这些公司，这真的非常令人兴奋。对许多孩子来说，这些人真的是下一代的榜样。
So that's a long way of saying that, you know, obviously you have to do what you have to do from a military perspective. And the hope obviously is that it could be as quick as possible. And that as few civilians as possible are hurt by this. But the notion is that once that's completed, you need to then create a framework where people don't just have more despair. Because in an area where there's no hope and opportunity, then obviously the radicalists and the jihadists, that's really where they do their best recruiting and they flourish.
所以这就是说，你知道的，显然从军事角度来看，你必须做你必须做的事情。而希望显然是尽可能地快速完成。尽可能少的平民受伤。但这个想法是，一旦完成了这一点，你就需要创造一个框架，让人们不再只有绝望。因为在一个没有希望和机会的地区，显然是激进分子和圣战主义者们最好的招募和繁荣之地。
So once this occurs, there needs to be a paradigm created where the next generation feels like it's better for them to get a job, be part of the economy, and where they can live a better life through capitalism than by going to these jihadist groups. But it's leadership targeting right now. That's the objective effectively. I mean, that's what I'm hearing is. It's a leadership and then degrading of capabilities, right?
所以一旦发生这种情况，就需要创立一个新的范式，让下一代觉得对他们来说，找工作、参与经济、通过资本主义过上更好的生活，要比加入圣战组织更有利。但目前的目标是针对领导层。这实际上就是目标。我的意思是，目标是打击领导层，削弱他们的能力，对吗？
So, because again, what you've seen as well, you've seen this with cartels in South America, and you've seen this with terror organizations, you know, you kill the top guy and sometimes you cut the head off the snake and the snake dies. And sometimes it just, you know, scatters into a lot of little pieces and then you end up, it ends up becoming more complicated, not less.
所以，因为再说一遍，你也见过南美的毒品集团和恐怖组织是这样的情况，你知道，你杀掉了顶头上司，有时候就像砍掉了蛇的头，蛇就死了。但有时候它也只是四散成许多小碎片，结果反而变得更加复杂，而不是变得更简单。
But I think here, obviously leadership, but significantly degrading the capabilities for anything in Gaza to threaten Israel. And then actively build a better way, actively build a better solution. That's the only way. And by the way, even today, it's much more easy to visualize that than it was in 2019 when I was talking about this, because you're seeing the economic project in Saudi Arabia, you're seeing what they're doing in UAE. I mean, the fact that Saudi shifted so much in five years should give you hope that it's really, really possible. And they've been pushing the rest of the countries to try to emulate and compete with them, which is also an amazing thing.
我认为在这里，显然是领导能力，但对加沙地带的任何威胁以色列的能力都明显降低了。然后积极建设更好的方式，积极构建更好的解决方案。这是唯一的方法。顺便说一句，即使在今天，要比2019年我谈论这个问题的时候更容易可视化，因为你可以看到沙特阿拉伯的经济项目，你可以看到他们在阿联酋所做的。我的意思是，沙特在五年时间内发生了如此巨大的变化，这应该给你带来希望，因为这是真的，真的是可能的。他们一直在推动其他国家试图效仿和竞争，这也是一件令人惊奇的事情。
I'd love to get your reaction to the difference in tone and messaging from Western governments, versus what you're seeing sometimes on the ground with some of these protests, and just how almost diametrically opposed the language and the rhetoric and the point of view is how is it that? And sort of this is why I kind of asked you just for a little bit of a history.
我很想听听您对西方政府言辞和信息传递方式与您在一些抗议活动中所见到的差异的看法，以及这种语言、修辞和观点几乎截然相反的情况是如何出现的。因此，我希望您能稍微介绍一下背景历史。
How is it that people aren't taking all of these views in? How is it that there is this radicalization that may not be happening in the same level in the Middle East, but is maybe happening actually in the West, whether it's in our universities or other ones?
为什么人们没有全盘接纳这些观点呢？为什么这种极端化在中东可能没有发生在同样程度上，但实际上却可能发生在西方，无论是在我们的大学还是其他地方？
Yeah, so that's something, look, my friends in the Middle East, a lot of them are laughing at the West because they're basically saying, you know, we got all these Islamist radical Muslim brotherhood people that hell out of our countries. You don't see the same protests in those places that you see in the West. And I think that in the West, what's occurred is people, I saw this a lot when I dealt with the Europeans where people's understanding of the issue is more with their heart than it is with their head. And obviously, nobody wants to see any suffering of any human beings.
是的，所以这是件事情，看吧，我的中东朋友们，很多他们都在嘲笑西方，因为他们基本上在说，你知道的，我们把所有这些伊斯兰极端穆斯林兄弟会的人从我们的国家赶出去了。你在那些地方看不到西方那样的抗议活动。而我认为，在西方发生的是，人们对这个问题的理解更多地来自于他们的感情而不是理智。显然，没有人希望看到任何人的苦难。
But the reality is, is that the solutions that they've proposed for the last 75 years have all been just nonsensical. They've more often than not perpetuated the problem than they've been solutions to the problem. And I faced tons of criticism when I was in my role working on this issue. And mostly because I looked at all the things that have been done in the past and keep my being asked to work on the Middle East, it's almost like a joke, right? It's the hardest problem set. You can get in the world. And I think we almost made it look too easy getting the results that we did. And we left it very quiet. And I think now people are starting to appreciate that it wasn't that easy. And it's not a simple problem set to deal with. But I think that a lot of people were kind of looking at what they thought was wrong, but looking at the wrong fruit causes for how it got there.
但事实是，他们在过去的75年中提出的解决方案都是荒谬的。它们往往更多地延长了问题的存在，而不是解决问题。当我在从事这个问题时，我面临了大量的批评。主要是因为我看到了过去所做的一切，被要求在中东工作，这几乎像是一个笑话，对吧？这是世界上最棘手的问题。我认为我们几乎让它看起来太容易了，得到了我们的成果。我们将它保持得非常低调。现在，我想人们开始意识到这并不容易。这不是一个简单的问题集。但我认为很多人在看待问题时都看错了原因。他们看错了问题产生的根本原因。
I have a question for you and Saks, I'd love to get your guys opinion on this. India dealt with a terrorist attack when Manmohan Singh was prime minister and basically it was an extremist Muslim group from Pakistan, Lakshari Taiba that came in and killed a lot of Indians, but a lot of foreigners as well, right?
我有一个问题想问你和Saks，我很希望听听你们的意见。在曼莫汉·辛格担任总理期间，印度曾遭受一次恐怖袭击，基本上是来自巴基斯坦的极端穆斯林组织“拉克希塔埃巴”犯下的，他们残忍杀害了许多印度人，也有很多外国人，对吧？
Attacked some of the major hotels in Bombay, etc. And what happened was Manmohan Singh didn't do anything. And in hindsight, what was written as, you know, they debated what to do. They debated, do we go after this group? Do we show some proactive demonstration of force? Do we invade Pakistan? Ultimately, they went on a more covert path to sort of dismantle that terror network. And there was just a lot of international support that came around it.
在孟买等地，一些主要的酒店遭到袭击，而当时的曼莫汉·辛格却未采取任何行动。回顾过去，他们当时讨论了应该怎么做。他们辩论，是追击这个组织呢？还是展示一些自发的武力示范？还是入侵巴基斯坦？最终，他们选择了一种更加隐蔽的方式来瓦解那个恐怖网络。而这一行动得到了很多国际支持。
Can we steal man whether it would have been possible for Netanyahu to take that path? Or was it really not even reasonable? Just curious what you guys think about that. Do you want to go first? No, you should go first here. Okay.
我们可以推测是否内塔尼亚胡走这条路可能吗？还是这根本就不合理？只是好奇你们对此有何看法。你想先说吗？不，你应该先说。好的。
So look, anything's possible, Chamathan. And I think that there's different ways. Look, I think the big fears initially were that going into Gaza, number one, you'd be walking into a big trap. And number two is you would be inviting a major escalation in the region. The third fear was obviously the degradation of the Israeli economy.
所以看，任何事情都有可能，Chamathan。而且我认为有不同的方法。你看，最初的大担忧就是，首先，进入加沙可能会陷入一个大陷阱。其次，这可能会导致该地区的严重升级。第三个担忧显然是以色列经济的恶化。
When we did the Abraham Accords, one of the big attractive things to a lot of these countries to be partners with Israel was their massively robust economy. And what could happen if they go to war? And it's a prolonged war is that economy can go off track. I think GDP will take a big hit there in Q4. But obviously, in Israel, they do have a history of coming back right away. But if this is a prolonged war effort, there could be big hits. And then you also think about at the age of AI and software development, losing a day of productivity is the equivalent of losing a week or a month. And they don't want to fall behind in what they're doing. So there is an argument to be made for doing that.
当我们达成阿拉伯国家与以色列的阿布拉凡协议时，以色列的强大经济是吸引这些国家成为合作伙伴的重要因素之一。如果发生战争，而且这场战争延长，经济就可能陷入困境。我认为GDP在第四季度将会大幅下滑。然而，显然以色列有在短时间内恢复的历史。但如果这是一场持久的战争，可能会受到重大冲击。另外，在人工智能和软件开发时代，失去一天的生产力相当于失去一周甚至一个月。他们不想在自己所从事的领域落后。因此，可以提出支持这一立场的论点。
But I do think that from Israel's perspective, I do think that they understand this threat. I think that they want to eliminate this threat. And I think their view is, is we can't live like this anymore. We underestimated it before. And we will not let that happen again.
但是我认为以色列从他们的角度来看，他们确实认识到了这个威胁。我认为他们希望消除这个威胁。他们的观点是，我们不能再以这种方式生活下去。我们之前低估了威胁，我们不会再让这种情况发生。
And I think also the psychology of really the Jewish people is, you know, it's funny. Once I was sitting with Prime Minister Netanyahu and one of the generals and and BB was basically saying like, you know, if Iran gets too close, this is what I'm going to do. We're going to have to take matters to our hands. And the general basically said to me, said, you know, I get it. You guys aren't going back to the ovens. And I was just like, wow, you know, it was a real acknowledgement of like the way that Israel operates with kind of no margin for error.
我认为犹太人的心理也很有趣。有一次我和内塔尼亚胡总理以及一位将军一起坐着，内塔尼亚胡基本上在说，你知道的，如果伊朗走得太近，我将采取什么措施。我们必须亲自解决问题。那位将军基本上跟我说，你知道的，我懂了。你们不会再回到那些大灶上去了。我就惊呆了，这实际上是对以色列运作方式的真正认可，不允许任何错误的余地。
And I would always say when I would negotiate with the Israelis that, you know, sometimes you do a contract and there's like, you know, there's there's two issues that are attend and like a couple of issues that are five and like a whole bunch, you know, a whole bag of issues that are like twos and threes. And when I would negotiate with the Israelis, like they would treat every issue like it was like a 10, you know what I mean? In the sense that like they just operate like there's no margin for error.
在我与以色列人谈判时，我总是会说，你知道，有时候你签订一份合同，会有两个问题需要注意，也会有几个重要问题，还有很多次要问题。而与以色列人谈判时，他们会把每个问题都看得非常重要，就像是十分紧急的事情一样，你明白我的意思吗？就是说，他们会像没有容错空间那样行事。
And I do think that obviously there was some complacency and the internal division, you know, led to them being caught off guard here. But I think that they're going to do what they're going to do to make sure this this happens. And I think there's also a way where Israel feels mentally like we have to show that we're strong or else people will go after us. And I think that that's what they've done.
我认为显然存在一些自满和内部分歧，导致他们对此情况毫无防备。但我认为他们会采取相应措施来确保这种情况不再发生。以色列也有一种心理感觉，认为我们必须展示自己的强大，否则会受到他人的攻击。我认为他们已经做到了这点。
And I will say, you know, the fact that Israel's gone from being completely divided to now fully united in this effort. I mean, even the people on the far left in Israel who are all peace who are, you know, funding, you know, jobs with Palestinians and, you know, housing them in their homes. I mean, they're basically saying they want to go to war. So the mentality there is very much we need to do what we need to do now to keep ourselves safe.
我想说的是，你知道，以色列从完全分裂到现在完全团结在这个努力中的事实。我的意思是，甚至以色列左翼的人，他们都是和平主义者，致力于为巴勒斯坦人提供工作机会，为他们提供住房。他们基本上是说他们想要开战。因此，那里的心态非常强调我们现在必须采取必要措施来保护自己安全。
People are very, very heartbroken for those who are who are past. They're praying very closely for the hostages. And but they've given a lot of latitude to their government to do what it needs to do to make sure this this is not this does not occur again. And I will say to like, Israel also recognizes that I think now they have the world more on their side than they have in in past conflicts. And I think their view is to their view is to do it while they have that situation.
人们对那些已经过世的人感到非常非常心碎。他们非常密切地为人质祈祷。但他们已经给予政府很大的自由度，让其采取必要措施以确保这种情况不再发生。我要说，就像以色列也认识到，现在他们在过去的冲突中比以往任何时候都更多地得到了世界的支持。我认为他们的观点是，在他们拥有这种局势的同时去实现。
So what do you think could Netanyahu have taken the the path of doing nothing? No, I don't think so. I mean, not given his domestic political situation.
那么你认为尼坦雅胡可能选择不采取任何行动吗？不，我不这么认为。我的意思是，考虑到他的国内政治局势，他不太可能选择不采取任何行动。
I think the Israeli people demand a response. And look, one of the arguments that Israel would make is that if this happened to you, the United States or you Russia or you China, what would you do? I mean, I think we know we would turn Gaza into Fallujah or Mosul. Russia would turn it into Grazni. So I think Israel is taking the response that I think most countries would take and given their situation.
我认为以色列人民要求作出回应。而且，其中一个以色列可能会提出的论点是，如果这种情况发生在美国、俄罗斯或中国，那么你们会怎么做？我的意思是，我认为我们知道我们会把加沙变成法卢杰或摩苏尔。俄罗斯会把它变成格罗兹尼。所以我认为，以色列采取的回应是大多数国家在他们的情况下会采取的回应。
The thing I worry about is that Israel is not the United States. I mean, the United States because it's so powerful can act largely with impunity. We don't have to worry as much about blowback. And Israel does because at the end of the day, they're a small country in a very hostile region. And so I do worry about the potential for unintended consequences here.
我所担心的是以色列并非美国。我的意思是，因为美国非常强大，它可以在很大程度上不受惩罚地行动。我们不必过于担心报复。而以色列必须担心，因为归根结底，他们是一个处于非常敌对地区的小国家。因此，我确实担心这可能会导致意想不到的后果。
One potential consequence is horizontal escalation. Does this war somehow spin out of control? And it could lead to a much wider regional war that would not be an Israel's interest. The other is diplomatic isolation, because I do think that Israel is taking a big hit right now and the information war, the War of Republic opinion. And then finally, you do have a lot of civilian casualties. And those civilians have brothers and sisters and cousins and so forth. And that's going to lead to the next generation of terrorists.
一个潜在的后果是横向升级。这场战争是否会失控？它可能导致一场更广泛的地区战争，而这对以色列来说并不符合其利益。另一个后果是外交孤立，因为我认为以色列目前受到了重创，面临着信息战和舆论战。最后，你会有很多平民伤亡。而这些平民有兄弟姐妹和堂兄弟姐妹等等。这将导致下一代恐怖分子的出现。
And so even success in this operation against Hamas doesn't solve the long term problem. I mean, it just kind of keeps it going. So I think all of those things are potential problems. But at the end of the day, if Israel can have a successful military operation here that significantly degrades or destroys Hamas without dis thinking spiraling out of control that buys them time to find a political solution, then maybe it will be worthwhile. I mean, I think a lot depends here on what the outcome ultimately is. I think it's like a very tough thing to judge without knowing what the outcome is going to be.
所以，即使在对哈马斯的这次行动中取得成功，也不能解决长期问题。我是说，它只是将问题延续下去。所以我认为所有这些都是潜在的问题。但是归根结底，如果以色列能够在这里进行一次成功的军事行动，显著削弱或摧毁哈马斯，而不让局势失控，那么这将给他们争取时间寻找政治解决方案，或许这将是有价值的。我的意思是，我认为很多事情取决于最终的结果。不知道结果如何，判断这个问题是非常困难的。
The King of Jordan a couple of weeks ago gave a speech. And in the speech, he said, there is no peace possible in the Middle East without the emergence of a Palestinian state with a two state solution being the only path forward. A Palestinian independent and sovereign state should be on June 4, 1967 lines with East Jerusalem as its capital. And so that the cycles of killing whose ultimate victims are innocent civilians and is this the only path to stabilization, Jared? And is that where we're headed? So that statement is the same throwaway statement, right? That's the safest statement for anyone to say because that became the international consensus.
几周前，约旦国王发表了一次演讲。在演讲中，他表示，中东地区只有通过实现一个巴勒斯坦国家，以两国解决方案为唯一前进道路，和平才有可能。一个巴勒斯坦独立主权的国家应建立在1967年6月4日的边界线上，以东耶路撒冷为首都。这样，我们才能避免导致无辜平民的死亡循环，并实现稳定，这是唯一的道路，贾里德，我们的方向是否如此？所以这句话只是无关紧要的陈词滥调，对于任何人来说都是最安全的表态，因为这成为了国际共识。
So, you know, one thing that was super interesting to me when I was working on this was I kind of said to my team once I was like, where does the Palestinian claim for East Jerusalem as the capital come from? And I had a guy on my team who was a military guy who actually worked for John Kerry. And I'd always have him in the room because he would represent the Palestinian perspective. Because he had a bunch of orthodox Jews and we tried to be impartial, but we did the best we could to have all perspectives represented. And he came to, I actually don't know. And then what's interesting is when the West Bank was actually governed by Jordan, the capital at the time was a man. And so it really wasn't till the 1988 launch of this right for Palestinian state that they self declared that the capital should be East Jerusalem. And so that was actually an interesting notion as well. And I think that everyone knows that that's not going to be the case. And I asked one of the leaders once why they say that and they said, well, it's a cliche. And I said, well, maybe we need a nuclei chain. He says, yeah, that's a good idea. Let's come up with a nuclei chain.
所以，你知道的，当我在研究这个问题时，有一件非常有趣的事情。有一次我对我的团队说，巴勒斯坦人声称东耶路撒冷是他们的首都，这个主张是从哪来的呢？我团队中有一个军队出身的家伙，他实际上曾为约翰·克里工作过。我总是把他叫到房间里，因为他能代表巴勒斯坦的观点。因为我的团队中有一群东正教犹太人，我们尽力保持公正，但我们尽量让各种观点都有代表。他来到我跟前，实际上我也不知道答案。有趣的是，当西岸实际上是由约旦统治时，它的首都是阿曼。直到1988年，当巴勒斯坦人自我宣布他们要建立一个国家时，他们才宣称首都应该是东耶路撒冷。所以这也是一个有趣的观点。我认为每个人都知道那不会成为现实。有一次我问过一位领导人为什么他们这么说，他们说这是一个陈词滥调。我说，也许我们需要一个核链。他说，是的，这是个好主意。让我们想办法来建立一个核链。
So I think whatever solution is going to occur has to be pragmatic. Right? The reality is, is that if we're going to learn from Gaza, there's a couple of lessons to learn. Right? Number one is, you know, Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005 or 2006. They forcibly removed 50,000 Israeli settlers from Gaza. All those people, they left their homes, they left their businesses. Thinking that would be peace. They transferred governance of Gaza to the Palestinians. The Palestinians then had an election. Again, it was the PA at the time convinced the Bush administration to allow for Hamas, even though their charter called for the destruction of Israel to participate in the election. And they won in a democratic election. Since that time, there's been no improvement in the economy. It's become a real security risk for Israel. And so Israel withdrew and then let them govern themselves. And now you have what's happened today be the case.
所以我认为无论出现什么解决方案，都必须是务实的。对吧？现实情况是，如果我们要从加沙事件中吸取教训，有几点需要注意。第一，以色列在2005年或2006年从加沙地带撤军。他们强制性地撤离了5万名以色列定居者。所有这些人离开了自己的家园、离开了自己的事业，希望能够实现和平。他们将加沙地带的治理权交给了巴勒斯坦人。然后，巴勒斯坦人进行了选举。当时，巴勒斯坦自治政府（PA）说服了布什政府允许哈马斯参加选举，尽管哈马斯的章程呼吁摧毁以色列。他们在一个民主选举中获胜。自那时以来，经济没有任何改善，这对以色列构成了严重的安全风险。因此，以色列撤军并让他们自己管理。而现在，你看到的就是今天的情况。
So I think the reality is, is that, if you look at the historical maps and the historical lines, I mean, there's really no making a claim that there's no other example in history where somebody's lost three offensive wars and then has been able to maintain their claim over a territory that they had before. But I do think that there is an international consensus. And I do even think in Israel, there's consensus to give the Palestinian people the ability to kind of have their own land and then also to govern themselves. So the word state is a very loaded term because it comes with a lot of definitions to different people.
所以我认为事实是，如果你看历史地图和历史界线，我是说，实际上没有任何一个例子可以声称在历史上有人曾经丢失过三场攻势战争，然后又能够保持他们之前对某个领土的主张。但我确实认为有一个国际共识。我甚至认为在以色列国内，人们一致认为应该给予巴勒斯坦人民拥有自己土地和自治能力的机会。因此，“国家”这个词是一个非常负有含义的词，因为它对不同的人来说有很多不同的定义。
But I think the constructs of what's achievable is, is in the West Bank or Gaza, there can be no security threat to Israel. This is something that that they were insisted on before. And I was sympathetic. This was even before October 7. And if you go back and look at the work we did and what we put out, we had a security regime that we designed with US intelligence and military and Israeli intelligence and Israeli military that we thought actually gave a lot of autonomy from police force perspective to the Palestinians allowed them to build their capabilities. And they kind of like earned their way into more and more security control, which I thought was the right way to do that. You don't want to take a ton of risk there.
但我认为在约旦河西岸或加沙地带，对以色列不存在安全威胁是可行的构想。这是他们之前坚持的观点，我对此表示同情。甚至在10月7日之前，我们所做的工作和提出的方案，我们与美国情报和军方、以色列情报和军方合作设计了一个安全机制，我们认为从警察的角度来看，它给予巴勒斯坦人很大的自治权，使其能够建设自己的能力。他们逐渐赢得了越来越多的安全控制权，我认为这是正确的做法。你不希望在那里承担太大的风险。
The other part of it though, in any state is you need a functioning economy. Otherwise, obviously, you have a big grievance party. The biggest problem the Palestinians have faced over the last call 25 years since Oslo, I guess almost 30 years now since Oslo, is just bad governance. So the problem with the PA is they were elected, I think in 2005. And they happened another election since. So I think President Abbas is in the 16th, 17th, 18th year of like a four year term. Very not popular. He's more popular in Washington and in the United Nations than he is in his own country. He's it's a very corrupt system. Again, a lot of the money's gone for for the leadership, their family, for the top people, but not to the it hasn't trickled down to the people. And so there's not a lot of trust on it.
然而，无论在任何一个州，你都需要一个正常运转的经济。否则，显然会出现大规模不满的情况。巴勒斯坦人在过去25年来面临的最大问题，我想自奥斯陆协议以来已经接近30年了，就是糟糕的治理。巴勒斯坦权力机构（PA）的问题在于他们在2005年当选，然后从未进行过其他选举。所以我认为阿巴斯总统已经连任了第16、17、18个年头，尽管并不受欢迎。他在华盛顿和联合国更受欢迎，而非在自己的国家。这是一个非常腐败的体制。大部分资金流向了领导层、他们的家族和高层，而并未下沉到普通民众。因此，人们对此缺乏信任。
You know, I held a conference in Bahrain where I brought all the top investors in the Middle East. I brought Steve Schwartzman from Blackstone came. We had Randall Stevenson came from from AT&T. And everyone came and said, you know what, we actually would love to help the Palestinian people. We'd love to invest here. And then they looked at the magnitude of it. I mean, it's 3 million people, which is like a small state in the West Bank and 2 million in Gaza. Again, it's like a small state in the US. And obviously to build things, it's much cheaper. I mean, the GDP per capita there is about 3000 per person. So, you know, it's it's cheaper labor. It's it's it's the bill and it's connected right to Israel, right, which is like, you know, California not being connected to Silicon Valley. So the prospects for prosperity spillover are massive being sandwiched between the rich Gulf and the growing Israel.
你知道吗，我在巴林举办了一次会议，邀请了中东所有顶尖的投资者。我邀请了来自黑石集团的史蒂夫·施瓦茨曼。我们还请来了来自AT&T的兰德尔·史蒂文森。每个人都说，你知道吗，我们真的很愿意帮助巴勒斯坦人民。我们愿意在这里投资。然后他们看了看规模，我指的是那里有300万人口，就像是约旦河西岸一个小国家，加沙有200万人口。而且，建设成本要便宜得多。我的意思是，那里的人均GDP大约为3000美元。所以，劳动力更加廉价。而且，这个地区与以色列紧密相连，就像加利福尼亚没有与硅谷相连一样。所以，位于富裕的海湾和不断发展的以色列之间的巴勒斯坦有着巨大的繁荣溢出的前景。
So, but the thing that's missing in for the Palestinians is very basic things, right? There's no fair judiciary. There's no rule of law. The governance is terrible. The institutions are incredibly opaque. And what all these people were saying is we'd love to invest here, but it's just not an investable place. And so, the thing that's been holding back the Palestinian people has not been Israel. It's been their bad leadership. And again, you're seeing in other places in the Middle East that with the proper leadership investments can come. And those investments will actually lead to people living a much better life.
因此，但对巴勒斯坦人来说，他们缺少的是非常基本的东西，对吧？没有公正的司法制度，没有法治，治理糟糕，机构不透明。所有这些人都在说，我们很想在这里投资，但这只是一个不适合投资的地方。因此，一直阻碍巴勒斯坦人发展的并不是以色列，而是他们糟糕的领导。而且你也可以在中东的其他地方看到，有了适当的领导力，投资才能更多地涌入。而这些投资实际上将会使人们过上更好的生活。
How does that leadership change in your view? So, the way that I would think about this is that if you're waiting for a solution to come to you, you're not going to find it, right? If you say, okay, let's go back to the UN. Well, they have a perfect track record of failure. Let's go back to the PA. Well, they have a perfect track record of failure. You're definitely not going to go back to a mosque. So you need to find something different. So I think you either need to create something new or you need to look at what's working and put it together. So some places that could do with me, the World Bank has a lot of good institutional knowledge. They helped us work on the plan, the World Bank and the IMF, some of the other regional governments. I mean, Jordan, their government is pretty capable. I mean, they're better at military than economy, but I think they're starting to focus more on economy as they realize that that's necessary.
在你的观点中，领导力的变革是如何发生的？所以，我认为如果你等着解决方案来找你，你是找不到的，对吧？如果你说，好吧，让我们回到联合国。唔，他们有一份完美的失败记录。让我们回到巴勒斯坦权力机构。唔，他们也有一份完美的失败记录。你绝对不会回到清真寺。所以你需要找到不同的东西。所以我认为要么你需要创造一些新的东西，要么你需要看看什么是有效的，并把它们结合起来。一些可能与我合作的地方，世界银行拥有很多优秀的机构知识。他们帮助我们制定了计划，世界银行和国际货币基金组织，还有其他一些区域政府。我是说，约旦，他们政府的能力相当不错。他们在军事方面比经济方面更擅长，但我认为他们开始更加注重经济，因为他们意识到这是必要的。
If you look at the benefits of that area, the Palestinian people are like a 99% literacy rate. Again, through the taxpayer, US taxpayer dollars and international donations, we've paid them to become very educated. Unfortunately, I think we've poisoned their minds with a lot of what's been taught in their curriculums.
如果你看一下那个地区的好处，巴勒斯坦人的读写能力几乎达到了99%的水平。同样，通过纳税人的贡献和国际捐款，我们付费让他们接受了高等教育。不幸的是，我认为我们在他们的课程中灌输了许多错误的思想观念。
They have a pretty good health care system there. Again, I think it could be improved because it's been done very kind of piecemeal versus holistic. And then in addition to that, they obviously have a tremendous amount of tourism sites. I mean, Jewish, Christian, Muslim tourism sites. So if they ever get their acts together, I mean, the boom in that area can be unbelievable. And I think it could work very, very well.
他们在那里有一个相当不错的医疗保健系统。再次强调，我认为它可以改进，因为它的建设过程非常零散而非整体化。而且，除此之外，他们显然还拥有大量旅游景点。我是指犹太教、基督教、伊斯兰教的旅游景点。因此，如果他们能够整合起来，那个地区的繁荣将是难以置信的。我认为它可能会非常非常成功。
There was one time where the Palestinian economy was working. I think it was in 2007. There was a guy named Salaam Fayad, who was the first time somebody came in, he was not corrupt. Things were happening. We just were rising. Projects were moving. The money was actually getting to the people. And he became so popular because he was such a doing such a good job administering that the president got rid of him, that Abbas got rid of him because he saw him as a threat to his power. So what's happened is not different. You always have kind of a tyranny of the minority in some way with most forms of government. And so what happened was, is that he was starting to gain popularity. He became a threat to kind of the cronyism that occurred.
有一次巴勒斯坦经济在运转。我记得那是在2007年。有一个叫萨拉姆·法雅德的人首次上任，他并不腐败。事情在发生着变化。我们正在崛起。项目在进展。钱实际上到了人民手里。他因为在管理上做得非常出色而变得非常受欢迎，因此总统把他撤职了，阿巴斯认为他对自己的权力构成威胁。所发生的事情并不意外。大多数政府形式下，都存在某种程度的少数人的暴政。他开始赢得了人们的支持，成为了那种权力斗争的威胁。
And so I think that the international community, if they're going to put money into this, again, to either rebuild. Number one, it has to be conditions based. Again, we've put tens of billions of dollars into this situation. I mean, this refugee group has gotten more money over time than any refugee group in history by a factor of maybe 100. And then, none of it's been conditions based. And it has to be in a set where people are trying to create outcomes. I think one of the problems is a lot of the people working on this don't have business backgrounds. They understand human rights or they understand politics, but they don't understand capitalism. They don't understand what kind of framework you need in order to allow a society to thrive.
所以我认为国际社会如果要投入资金，无论是重建还是其他的，首先必须以条件为基础。我们已经投入了数百亿美元来解决这个问题。我指的是，这个难民群体获得的资金比以往任何难民群体都多，可能是100倍的差距。然而，这些资金都没有根据特定条件使用。而且，这些资金必须用于创造结果的设定中。我认为问题之一是很多从事这个领域的人缺乏商业背景。他们懂得人权或政治，但却不懂得资本主义。他们不理解为了使一个社会繁荣所需要的框架。
Has Treasury ever tried to trace these dollars or some other organization to just show where the theft happened and where these pools of money have gone to? There's some intelligence on it that I can't go into, but I think most people don't want to know to be honest to Moth. I mean, you could just look at it in a couple of ways. You look at, we would meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu in Washington and he would take a commercial L.L. flight to come meet us. And he runs a military superpower, an economic superpower in the region. President Abbas would come visit us in Washington and he obviously represents a refugee group. And he would fly in a $60 million Boeing business jet, private jet to Washington. I'd meet with him and we'd be sitting around and he'd put a cigarette in his mouth and then somebody would come over and they'd like the cigarette for him. I'd be like, am I meeting with the head of a refugee group? I mean, it was a different situation.
财政部是否曾尝试追踪这些资金流向或其他组织，以显示盗窃发生的地点以及这些资金池的去向？有些情报我不能透露，但我认为大多数人实际上不想知道给蛾子。我的意思是，你可以从几个方面来看。比如，我们会与内塔尼亚胡总理在华盛顿会面，他会乘坐商用L.L.航班来见我们。他是该地区的军事和经济超级大国的领导人。阿巴斯主席会来华盛顿访问，他代表难民团体。他会乘坐价值6000万美元的波音公务机飞往华盛顿。我与他会面时，我们坐在一起，他会抽根烟，然后有人会过来为他点烟。我就像，我在与一个难民团体的领导人会面吗？这种情况真的很不同。
But I think people just. He's the reasonable one, right? The alternative is Hamas and those guys, I mean, those are billionaire hypocrites who live in Qatar at the four seasons, right? Yeah, but my sense is, is you're going to get with you demand, right? And I think that from the US's perspective, right? We give about $4 billion a year in foreign aid to the PA, to UNRRA, to Jordan, to Egypt. And we've tolerated a status quo that's not acceptable.
但我认为人们只是这样想。他是合理的那个，对吗？而哈马斯和那些家伙则是一群身居卡塔尔四季酒店的亿万富翁伪君子，对吗？是的，但我的感觉是，你会得到你要求的结果，对吧？从美国的角度来看，我们每年向巴勒斯坦权力机构、联合国救济和工程总署、约旦和埃及提供约40亿美元的外援。我们已经容忍了一个无法接受的现状。
And one of the differences, again, Trump had a lot of tension with the foreign policy establishment. And it was over a lot of things, right? Obviously, he wanted to end the forever wars. He felt like we should get some return on the investments we were making. He felt like USAID wasn't an entitlement. But I think the biggest difference was they wanted to all maintain the world. They wanted just to manage it and he wanted to change it.
而其中的一个差异，再次，是特朗普与外交政策机构之间存在很大的紧张关系。这涉及很多事情，对吧？显然，他希望结束永无休止的战争。他觉得我们应该从我们的投资中获得一些回报。他认为美国援助署不是一项权利。但我认为最大的区别在于，他们想要保持现状，只是管理世界，而他想要改变它。
And what we did by the time, again, this was one of the disagreements I had with the incoming administration, is that when we turned over the Middle East to them, again, we spoke earlier about what a mess we kind of inherited when we started. But we had five peace deals up between Israel and majority Muslim countries. Iran was totally broke again under Obama. When he left, they were selling about 2.6 million barrels of oil a day under Trump. When he left office, they were selling 100,000 barrels of oil a day. They were out of foreign currency reserves. They were dead broke. Now they're back up to 3 million barrels a day of sales. They've done over $100 billion of oil revenue since we left office.
而我们在此期间所做的事情，再次强调，这是我与新政府之间的一项分歧，我们把中东地区交给了他们。之前我们已经谈到过我们开始时所继承的混乱局面。但是我们已经在以色列和多数穆斯林国家之间达成了五项和平协议。奥巴马时期，伊朗经济彻底崩溃。在他离任时，他们每天售出大约260万桶石油。特朗普离任时，他们每天只售出10万桶石油。他们的外汇储备已经用尽，他们一贫如洗。现在他们每天的销售量已经恢复到300万桶石油。自我们离任以来，他们已经获得了超过1000亿美元的石油收入。
The Palestinians, one of the things we did after the first year is we cut the funding to Enro's. Very controversial. We were saying, oh, this is for refugees. It's not for refugees. It's to build terror tunnels and rockets. They're saying, no, it's for schools and hospitals. And we were saying, those are the military bases. And they were saying, you guys are crazy. You're cruel. And the whole thing. And so when we left, the PA was basically broke. The Arabs had kind of lost interest in that cause because they saw that it was morally bankrupt in that every time we gave a boss the opportunity to do something better for his people, he refused. And they kind of saw that we smoked him out a little bit. And so we took the issue and we shrunk it tremendously. And the final deal we did was between Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, and Bahrain. And that was a critical deal to do because that was what really made it possible for Saudi and Israel to then do the deal. And that was really on the table right when we left. But it took too much time. They allowed Iran to get too strong. They started allowing Iran to get money. They started funding the Palestinians and UNRRA again. And now you have a situation where it's just become a mess. It could be fixed. It definitely can be fixed if you're strong and if you're smart. But if you're going to go back to kind of the old ideas, you're going to get the old results. You need new ideas. You need to create the ideas and force them. You can't just wait for them to occur and then go back to the old institutions and the old people who have failed before.
巴勒斯坦人，我们在第一年之后所做的一件事就是削减了对联合国救灾和工程处的经费支持。这引起了很大争议。我们说，这是为了难民，但实际上并不是。他们利用这些资金修建恐怖通道和火箭。他们声称这是用来建设学校和医院，但我们认为那些其实是军事基地。他们说我们疯了，残忍无情，他们对整件事情抱持异议。所以我们离开后，巴勒斯坦权力机构基本上破产了。阿拉伯国家对这个事业的兴趣也减退了，因为他们看到这个事业的道义已经崩溃，每当我们给巴勒斯坦提供机会为自己的人民做些好事时，他们都拒绝了。他们有点意识到我们发现了他们的一些真面目。于是我们将问题缩小了很多。我们最终达成的协议是卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、埃及和巴林之间的协议。这是非常关键的协议，因为这才使得沙特和以色列能够达成协议。当我们离开的时候，这个协议已经摆在了桌面上。但是花费了太多时间。他们让伊朗变得太强大了。他们开始给伊朗提供资金。他们重新开始资助巴勒斯坦人和联合国救灾和工程处。现在局势变得一团糟。不过这是可以修复的。如果你强大而聪明，你肯定能够修复。但是如果你回到旧观念上，你就会得到旧的结果。你需要新的观念。你需要创造这些观念并坚持下去。你不能等待它们的发生，然后回到那些以前失败过的旧机构和旧人员身边。
Who do you think should be Secretary of State in the next administration? I think you should. Let me ask you about the two state solution. Let's just double click on this. I mean, my view on this, and I think by the standards of Israeli politics, that'd be a liberal there, is that the only solution, the only way out of this is the two state solution. You know, we can't have a situation of indefinite permanent occupation of the Palestinian people. At some point, they developed a national consciousness. And if you have conditions of permanent occupation, they're going to resist and you're going to have outbursts of terrorism.
你认为在下一届政府中应该由谁担任国务卿？我认为你应该担任。让我问你关于两国解决方案的问题。让我们仔细思考一下。我的观点是，按照以色列政治的标准，我算是一个自由主义者，唯一的解决办法，唯一的出路就是两国解决方案。你知道，我们不能让巴勒斯坦人民处于无限长期的占领之中。在某个时刻，他们会形成一种民族意识。如果你让永久占领的条件存在，他们会进行抵抗，并且会有恐怖主义爆发。
At the same time, if Israel just outright annexes these territories or continues on a program of call it creeping annexation where it keeps building settlements in the West Bank, and you have a greater Israel that eventually Jews in Israel will not be the majority of the population. I think if you look at kind of greater Israel, there's about 7.3 million Jews, there's about 7.3 million Palestinian Arabs. So if the plan is a single greater Israel, it's either going to stop being a Jewish state because the Palestinians will vote for something different, or it'll continue being the Jewish state, but there's going to be some sort of two-tier system where a lot of Palestinians won't have the vote. And so eventually, a greater Israel will have to choose between whether it wants to be democratic or whether it wants to be Jewish. And that seems like a very bad choice. It seems like both those things be true. So again, that kind of brings you back to a two-state solution as the only option here. And yet, it seems to me that the two-state solution has never been further away. It seems like it's never been further away in terms of Israeli domestic politics, and it's never been further away in terms of having a negotiating partner to negotiate something like this with. So that would be sort of my pessimistic outlook. I mean, I know you're pretty optimistic about the situation. Do you see it differently than that? Is that framing wrong somehow? How would you see it?
同时，如果以色列要么完全吞并这些区域，要么继续实施所谓的渐进吞并计划，在约旦河西岸继续建造定居点，那么最终以色列境内的犹太人将不再占据人口的多数。从大以色列的角度来看，大约有730万犹太人和约730万巴勒斯坦阿拉伯人。因此，如果计划是建立一个大以色列，那么它要么停止成为一个犹太国家，因为巴勒斯坦人会投票支持其他方案，要么它将继续成为犹太国家，但将出现某种两层制度，许多巴勒斯坦人无法享有选举权。因此，大以色列最终将不得不选择是要成为一个民主国家还是要成为一个犹太国家。这似乎是一个非常糟糕的选择，似乎两者兼得是不可能的。因此，这又将我们带回到只有两国解决方案才是唯一的选择。然而，我觉得两国解决方案似乎离我们越来越远。无论是在以色列国内政治方面，还是在找到一个谈判伙伴来协商这样的解决方案方面，两国解决方案似乎离我们越来越远。这是我的悲观看法。我知道你对这种情况比较乐观。你是否有不同的看法？是不是上述观点有误？你是如何看待这个问题的？
So number one is I'm naturally optimistic. And I just find it's more fun to be optimistic than pessimistic. But I'll say everything I'm saying in the context of the fact that this is a really, really, really hard problem set. So I'll try to say this in the right order.
首先，我天生乐观。我发现乐观比悲观更有趣。但是，我要在这个前提下说出一切，这是一个非常非常非常困难的问题集。所以，我会尽量按正确的顺序表达出来。
So number one is I don't think there's any viability to a one-state, and I don't think that that's something that will ever occur.
首先，我认为单一国家的可行性是不存在的，而且我不认为这会发生。
Number two is, and actually, what's interesting, one of the problems is a lot of the Arabs and the Palestinians would actually prefer to be part of Israel than a Palestinian state.
第二点是，实际上有意思的是，一个问题是许多阿拉伯人和巴勒斯坦人实际上更愿意成为以色列的一部分，而不是成立一个巴勒斯坦国家。
So right before COVID, we released the Trump peace plan, which again, you can still find online. And I think the political part of it was about 54 pages, the economic part and the political part is about 181 pages in detail.
就在 COVID 之前，我们发布了特朗普和平计划，你仍然可以在网上找到。我认为其中的政治部分大约有 54 页，而经济部分和政治部分的详细内容则有大约 181 页。
We at the time got the right wing and the left wing. Again, it was they were in the third election, and we had Prime Minister Netanyahu and Benny Gantz, who's also an amazing person, and he made it. They all endorsed it.
在当时，我们得到了右翼和左翼。 再次，这是他们参加第三次选举，我们有了内塔尼亚胡总理和本尼·甘茨，他也是一个了不起的人，他成功了。他们都支持这个。
And so what I would find, what I tell you is that semantics, you know, state has to do a lot with semantics. So you can definitely give them a state. The question is, is you have to give Israel certain overriding security controls so that so that the state cannot be a threat to them, and then you can let them kind of earn their way out of that with good behavior and showing that it's a true partnership.
所以我要告诉你的是，语义学与国家有很大关系。因此，你肯定可以给他们一个国家。问题在于，你必须给予以色列一些重要的安全控制措施，以确保这个国家不会对他们构成威胁，然后让他们通过良好行为和展示真正的伙伴关系来逐渐摆脱这些控制。
But what I will just tell you is that whatever you call it, you give them a flag, you can give them whatever you want, unless there is a system where people can live a better life, then the grievance will overtake whatever independence they have, and it will just become a problem again.
但我要告诉你的是，不管你如何称呼它，只要给他们一个旗帜，你可以给他们任何你想给的东西，除非有一个让人们过上更好生活的系统，否则不满情绪会超越他们所拥有的任何独立性，然后问题就会再次出现。
And so I do think a two state solution is possible. Again, what you do with Gaza is very much, you know, TBD. But I do think especially in the West Bank, there's definitely possibility to do it. And I think that from Israel, they'd like to see that happen where they'd like the Palestinians to be able to govern themselves, but it's a couple of big ifs, if it's not a security threat, and if they can have a viable economy that's going to happen.
所以我认为两国解决方案是可能的。再次强调，加沙地带的处理方式尚未确定。但我确实认为在约旦河西岸，肯定有可能实现这一点。我认为以色列方面希望看到巴勒斯坦人能够自主治理，但有几个关键条件：首先，不能构成安全威胁；其次，他们必须有一个可行的经济体。只有满足这些条件，才有可能实现。
One of the big things that's happening now that I'm hearing about is that I think the number was like 250,000 Palestinian, so it worked visas from the West Bank to go into Israel. And now with the threat, there's just such a great distrust that has occurred that those are now not being renewed. So I think Israel's going to have to bring in workers from other parts of the world. But that was an amazing thing, right? You had Muslims and Jews working together, you had Palestinians whose lives were better off because they're working with Israel.
目前正在发生的一件大事是，据我所听说，约有25万名巴勒斯坦人从西岸获得了进入以色列的工作签证。但现在由于威胁的存在，人们之间的互信度急剧下降，这些签证正在停止续签。因此，我认为以色列将不得不从世界其他地区引进工人。但这真是一件了不起的事情，对吧？你看到穆斯林和犹太人在一起工作，你看到巴勒斯坦人因与以色列合作而生活得更好。
So the vast majority of the Palestinians, maybe not the vast, I don't know, it's people have different perspectives on this. But I just believe that fundamentally, human beings want to live a better life. I don't think our natural state is to hate each other or to not be together. Again, if you look at the Middle East for a thousand years before the Second World War, Jews and Muslims and Christians, they lived very peacefully together. So what I was seeing with the Abraham Accords and what I was hoping would occur would really be a reversion to the pre-World War II era where people were starting to live peacefully together.
所以绝大部分巴勒斯坦人，也许不是绝大部分，我不知道，人们对此有不同的观点。但我只是相信，从根本上说，人类希望过上更好的生活。我不认为我们的本性是互相仇恨或不团结。再说了，如果你回顾第二次世界大战之前中东的一千年历史，犹太人、穆斯林和基督教徒他们相安无事地生活在一起。因此，我希望看到的亚伯拉罕协议所代表的是一种回归二战前，人们开始和平共处的时代。
But there's been a lot of hate that's been fermented and manipulated over this time. But the best way to start it is just take it one day at a time. We used to say in government, we get a hard problem. You used to say, how do you eat an elephant one bite at a time? And so just have to kind of outline where you want to get to, put in place the right system, and then just start step after step after step. And then you get to a place and maybe you're able to do something that becomes viable with time.
然而，在这段时间里，已经存在很多恶意被酝酿和操控。但最好的方法就是一天一天踏实地去做。在政府中，我们曾经说，遇到一个难题时，该怎么解决呢？你曾经说过，一口一口地吃掉大象。所以只需要大致确定你想要达到的目标，建立正确的系统，然后一步一步地开始行动。然后你会达到一个地方，也许能够以时间为基础做出一些可行的事情。
Jared, did you see the debates last night? Did you watch them?
杰里德，昨晚你看了辩论吗？你有看吗？
No, I did not.
不，我没有。
Saxon, did you watch them?
Saxon，你看了吗？
I didn't watch the whole thing. I've seen clips on social media. Do you have any takeaways? I mean, was it even worth watching?
我没看整场演讲。我在社交媒体上看到了一些片段。你有什么看法吗？我的意思是，它值得去看吗？
Yeah, I thought the clips did a pretty good job of actually showing some of the punchier moments. But the crazy thing is that the mainstream media has completely erased the effects candidacy. I don't even think it exists in the eyes of the mainstream media. But if you look on on X, all the posts were like, he clearly won. And he was basically throwing fireballs everywhere.
是的，我觉得这些片段很好地展示了一些有力的瞬间。但让人惊讶的是，主流媒体完全抹去了他的竞选影响力。我甚至觉得在主流媒体的眼中，他的存在都不存在。但如果你去看X上的帖子，所有的帖子都在说，他显然赢了。他简直是到处都在放炮。
But then if you go to CNN or Fox, you don't even hear his name. So it's a real, real difference. The mainstream media coverage is what they want you to believe. And social media is what actually happened. It's what people actually believe.
但是如果你去CNN或Fox，你甚至都听不到他的名字。所以这是一个真正的、真正的差异。主流媒体的报道是他们希望你相信的。而社交媒体上所发生的才是实际真相，也是人们真正相信的。
And I think that if you look at social media, what it shows is that Vivek dominated the debate and he was throwing fireballs and he was slamming the neocons on the stage and showing that there's been, I think, an irreparable break between the neocons establishing the Republican Party and the more populist Mago Wing. So I think that's kind of what social media is showing.
我认为，如果你看一下社交媒体，它显示的是Vivek在辩论中占主导地位，他投下了火球，甚至猛烈抨击了舞台上的新保守派，展示了新保守派与更加民粹主义的Mago派之间的不可弥补的裂痕。所以我想这大概是社交媒体所展示的意思。
And then if you listen to mainstream media, they said they talked about Vivek, it said he had some sort of meltdown and he insulted Nikki Haley's daughter or whatever or something like that. A butter TikTok usage. Yeah, by the way, all he said is that he was being berated for why he created a TikTok account. And he's like, I want to reach young people, like your daughter who's on there. And for that, Nikki, that's what he said. And Nikki Haley called him scum for that. Well, she also she also pulled like the Will Smith find like, get your my daughter's name out your mouth. Did she slap him? No, she did. That's a pretty good point.
然后如果你听主流媒体的话，他们说他们谈到了Vivek，说他有些崩溃了，侮辱了Nikki Haley的女儿之类或其他类似的事情。简单地说，他只是说他因为为什么创建了一个TikTok账号而受到责骂。他说，他想要吸引年轻人，就像你的女儿一样在那里。对此，Nikki，这就是他说的。Nikki Haley因此称他为渣滓。她还像威尔·史密斯一样说，别提我的女儿的名字。她打了他吗？不，她没有。这是个很有道理的观点。
There's like 75 million young Americans on TikTok. If you want to reach them, that's where you post your messages. I have seen the Vakes stuff on there. I've seen RFK juniors videos on there. Yeah, like everyone uses TikTok now if you want to reach people. That's his reality. Nikki Haley doesn't. I'm not sure. I don't know that she has much of a social media following because I don't think her campaign inspires any real grassroots. I think her campaign is supported and propped up by the GOP establishment wing. I don't think there's any market for what she's selling among the grassroots. So social media is kind of pointless for her. But if you actually want to reach people, especially young people, you use social media.
在TikTok上有大约7500万年轻的美国人。如果你想接触到他们，那就是你发布信息的地方。我在那里看到过Vakes的东西。我看过RFK juniors在那里的视频。是的，现在如果你想接触到人们，几乎每个人都在使用TikTok。这是他的现实。Nikki Haley不使用。我不确定。我不知道她在社交媒体上是否有很多追随者，因为我不认为她的竞选活动激发了真正的基层组织。我认为她的竞选活动得到了共和党建制派的支持。我不认为有市场对她正在推销的东西感兴趣。所以对她来说，社交媒体有点无意义。但是如果你真的想接触到人们，尤其是年轻人，你就要使用社交媒体。
Well, it's pretty intense when Vivik said that the head of the RNC should just be fired for all the losing and kind of went through every single election in the midterms and whatnot that they've lost since she became the head of the RNC. And apparently on social media, she mowed something to the effect of this guy's an a-hole. He's gonna get a single set for months. Yeah, I know this will be a bit of a pranamic, Daniel. Do I know? I mean, I like Rana, but I mean, has she done a good job, Sacks? Look, it's hard for me to speak to the job she's actually done because I don't know the activities are actually involved in being RNC chair. So, but I mean, Vivik's point is look at the results. So we were on the board of a company that kept missing quarter after quarter. And the CEO said, no, look at all the good things I'm doing. We would probably still fire that CEO just because you're like, how do things get worse? Right? You just take the chance that you bring in a new CEO, they're going to do better. So the reality is our results in their Republican party have been shitty lately. Now is that all Rana's fault? No, it may not be much of our fault at all. But how do you do worse?
嗯，维维克说共和党全国委员会主席应该被解雇以及她担任该职位后在每一次中期选举中的失败，这一点相当严重。据称在社交媒体上，她形容这家伙是个混球，他将连续数月遭遇打压。是的，我知道这可能会有些尴尬，但丹尼尔，我认识蕾娜，但我是说，她做得好吗？萨克斯？看，我很难评价她实际做了什么工作，因为我不知道作为共和党全国委员会主席实际上涉及了什么活动。但是我的意思是，维维克的观点是看结果。假设我们是一家持续错过季度业绩的公司的董事会成员，而CEO却说：“不，看我做了多少好事。”我们可能还是会解雇那个CEO，因为你可能会想：“事情怎么会变得更糟呢？”对吧？你只是会冒险，让新的CEO上任，他们会做得更好。因此，事实是我们共和党最近的成绩糟糕透顶。这完全是蕾娜的错吗？不，可能她并不怎么错。但是，怎么会变得更糟呢？
I think a big reason for the crappy results have been the abortion issue. We've now had this issue on the ballot in at least six states, most of which were red states, a couple of them were purple states. It's lost every time. The anti-abortion or pro-life side has lost decisively every time. And I think there's a lot of reasons to vote Republican. I think Republicans have the advantage on the economy, on border, on anything related to to woke, on rhyme and homelessness. These are all issues that should be big winners for Republicans. But the public by I think probably a two thirds majority does not want to ban abortion. And as long as that issue is in the forefront, Republicans are going to lose. And actually it was Ann Coulter who just said this. Ann Coulter had a really good blog post about this saying that the pro-life retweeted it. By the way, she's very pro-life. I mean, she's a social conservative, but she says that pro-life is going to wipe out their Republican party. They need to focus on non-political activities, which is winning over hearts and minds. They have to make the case to the country, they have to persuade more people because they're not in a position. They are not popular enough to actually win elections.
我认为糟糕的选举结果中的一个重要原因就是堕胎问题。我们现在至少有六个州在选举中讨论过这个问题，其中大部分是红色州，还有一小部分是紫色州。每次都以失败告终。反堕胎或亲生命方面在每次选举中都输得很彻底。我认为有很多原因可以支持共和党的选票。在经济、边境、唤醒问题和无家可归者等方面，我认为共和党有优势。这些都是共和党应该在大选中赢得的重大问题。但是，我认为大约三分之二的公众不希望禁止堕胎。只要这个问题继续处于前沿位置，共和党就会失败。事实上，是安·库尔特最近说过这个问题。安·库尔特在博客文章中非常好地阐述了这一点，并得到了反堕胎派的转发。顺便说一下，她非常支持保护生命。我是说，她是一个社会保守主义者，但她说保护生命会毁掉共和党。他们需要关注非政治活动，努力争取人们的心和意识。他们必须向全国提出理由，要说服更多的人，因为他们没有足够的受欢迎程度来真正赢得选举。
You concurger, giving the Republican party is going to change their position or need to change their position to win elections. Presidential election aside.
你同意，共和党需要改变他们的立场或者需要改变立场以赢得选举。不考虑总统选举。
Well, ultimately, if you don't win, then you can't govern and you can't impact the changes you want to do. So I do think that people are definitely paying attention. The results are the results.
嗯，归根结底，如果你没有赢得胜利，那么你就不能执政，也不能对你想要做出的变革产生影响。所以我确实认为，人们肯定会关注。结果就是结果。
I will say that one thing with Trump, he won. With his operation, we were able to overperform our polling. I think here, in these last times, there's been underperformance of polling. And so that's something that obviously you have to look at, which is very troubling.
我要说一件事，就是特朗普赢了。在他的运作下，我们能够超出民意调查的预测结果。我认为最近的时期，民意调查的表现有所不尽如人意。这显然是一个需要关注的问题，非常令人忧虑。
But I'll also say that with what I found, again, I'm not really, as somebody who was newer to the Republican party, what I found is that both parties are really, I would say, collections of tribes. You have different tribes that make up the party. But what I found in the Republican party was that there was a ton of infighting and finger pointing and purity tests.
但我也要说，根据我发现的情况，作为一个新加入共和党的人，我发现两个党派实际上可以说都是由不同的团体组成。每个党派都有不同的派系。但我在共和党中发现存在大量内斗、互相指责以及纯洁性测试。
Instead of saying, I'm happy you agree with me on 70% or 80%, it was basically saying, well, if you don't agree with me on 100%, then you're a bad Republican. And I think that that's a culture that's going to lead to you having very strong opinions, but having no ability to effectuate things.
与其说“我很高兴你在70%或80%方面同意我”，实际上是在暗示“如果你不百分之百同意我，那么你就是一个糟糕的共和党人”。我认为这种态度会导致你拥有非常强烈的意见，却无法实现任何事情的文化。
I think that people have to say, where do we agree on different issues? Where do we agree on issues? How do we work together to do it? But if you don't win, then you're not going to be able to effectuate the things you want. And even worse, the other side is going to be effectuating the things they want. And you look at where the world is today because of that.
我认为人们必须就不同议题表达自己的看法，我们在哪些问题上达成了共识？我们在哪些议题上达成了共识？我们如何共同合作实现这些共识？但是，如果你没有赢得胜利，那么你将无法实现自己的愿望。更糟糕的是，对方会实现他们想要的事情。就是因为这个，我们看到世界今天的局势。
There's a lot of international fighting in the Republican party. I think Trump's instincts on abortion actually have been very good. I said this a couple of months ago, there was kind of a brew, ha, ha on the right when Trump gave an interview in which he said that actually what the Santas have done in Florida with the six-week ban was a mistake. And that he sort of upleveled the issue and just said, I'm going to find a compromise that makes everybody happy. And this created a lot of upset people on the right because they thought that Trump was kind of selling them out on the abortion issue.
在共和党内部存在许多国际纷争。我认为特朗普对于堕胎问题的直觉实际上非常不错。我几个月前就说过这个观点，当时在右翼阵营中引起了一些骚动，因为特朗普在一次采访中表示，佛罗里达州的桑塔斯六周禁令实际上是错误的。他提升了这个问题，并表示他将找到一个让每个人都满意的妥协。这引起了许多右翼人士的不满，因为他们认为特朗普在堕胎问题上背叛了他们。
And I made this case on Meghan Kelly a couple months ago that I thought that what Trump was doing was pretty smart because he doesn't want to get pinned down on an issue that's going to hurt him in the general. And I think part of the reason why he was being a little bit cagey on that issue is because he knows it would hurt him in the general. And he's starting to think about that. I think the results that we just have the other day are strong vindication of that.
几个月前，我在梅根·凯利（Meghan Kelly）的案子上提出了这个观点，我认为特朗普的做法非常聪明，因为他不想在总选中被困在损害自己的问题上。我认为他对这个问题有些含糊其辞的原因之一是因为他知道这会在总选中伤害到他。他开始考虑这个问题。我认为我们最近取得的结果充分证明了这一点。
And just to be saying just more generally that whenever Trump has opposed Republican groups think on an issue, I think he's invariably been proven correct. If you go all the way back to 2016, think about all the heresies that he committed in the Republican party. He spoke out against the forever wars, against Bush's forever wars. I think he was right about that.
只是说一般情况下，每当特朗普与共和党团体在某个问题上持不同意见时，他往往被证明是正确的。回想起2016年以来他在共和党内犯下的所有异端行为，他反对了所谓的无休止战争，反对了布什的无休止战争。我认为他是正确的。
At the time the Republican party either wasn't talking about immigration or didn't really seem to care. He basically made the border a huge issue. I think he's proven right about that. The issue of China and China trade was not an issue in the Republican party. If anything, it was sort of this, this sort of unreconstructed free trade, total free trade issue. Ryan was pushing the TPP there. Right, exactly. So Trump defied the orthodoxy on that. I think he was proven correct.
当时，共和党要么不谈论移民问题，要么似乎并不关心。他基本上让边境问题成为重大问题。我认为他在这方面是正确的。中国和中国贸易问题在共和党并不成为一个议题。如果说有什么问题的话，那就是这种对自由贸易的未修正，完全自由贸易的问题。保罗 · 瑞安是在推动《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（TPP）。是的，正是如此。所以特朗普对此事冲破了常规，我认为他的观点是正确的。
Paul Ryan also wanted to ratchet back entitlements like Social Security and Medicare. And Trump thought that was suicidal for the GOP. So he opposed that. I think on all these issues, whenever he has defied the orthodoxy, he's been proven correct. And I don't know if it's a conscious thing or it's just that he's got instincts as a politician. Be curious to get Jared's take on that. How much of this is sort of him working things out and how much it is just his gut.
保罗·瑞安也想减少像社会保障和医疗保险这样的福利。而特朗普认为，这对共和党来说是自杀式的行为，所以他反对这一举措。我认为，在所有这些问题上，只要他违背常规，他就被证明是正确的。我不知道这是不是一种有意识的行为，或者只是他作为政治家的直觉。很想听听贾里德对此的看法。这其中有多少是他在解决问题，又有多少是凭直觉行事。
But I think this is why he stole the candidate to beat for the Republican nomination is at the end of the day for all of Trump's issues, he's actually the best politician in the Republican party.
但是我认为这就是为什么他偷走了共和党提名的有力竞争者，最终结果是尽管特朗普有诸多问题，但他实际上是共和党中最优秀的政治家。
And I would see the way that he would work on trade. And again, trade deals usually take five, six years. And his attitude on trade was that whenever there's a multilateral, it's the weaker countries all ganging up on the stronger party. And so he says, like, I want to do them bilaterally. So he withdrew from TPP, which everyone, when crazing said it was a disaster, well, we ended up negotiating with Japan and Korea and everyone. And we got basically 95% of the market access that was in TPP without giving up any of the things that would have absolutely decimated our auto industry.
我会看到他处理贸易的方式。而且，贸易协议通常需要五六年的时间。他对待贸易的态度是，只要是多边贸易协议，就是较弱的国家联合起来对抗较强的一方。所以他说，我要一个一个地进行双边贸易协议。于是他退出了泛太平洋伙伴关系协定，当时所有人都疯狂地说这是个灾难，但我们最终还是与日本和韩国等国进行了谈判，而且在没有放弃任何可能彻底摧毁我们汽车行业的东西的情况下，基本上实现了泛太平洋伙伴关系协定中95% 的市场准入。
We renegotiate the NAFTA, which everyone said Obama said they would Bush said he wanted to fix it. Meanwhile, Trump came in in a year and a half. We renegotiated NAFTA and it got over 80 votes in the Senate. It was a bipartisan win. And it's at the highest standards for labor protection. It did a lot of great things that I think make America way more competitive. And hopefully what we do is our trade deficit. So these are all things that he took on that people weren't willing to. And again, he said, look, if I'm wrong, putting tariffs on these different countries, I remember people coming into him saying, say, if you put these tariffs on, the whole world's going to explode. The US economy is going to blow up. And I remember sitting with him privately. And he said to me, no, Jared, we had a year debate. And we had some people who were more religious about this issue than anything else. And he says, you know, Jared, I've been saying this for 30 years. I believe it. I campaigned on it. I won on it. I have to see it. Like, I have to see it through it. You know, what if it turns out it's a big disaster? I could always take him off. You know, and so that was kind of like his way of thinking about it, where he had his instinct, he fought his instinct. But he knew he could always back off. And I think his flexibility and unpredictability were some of his greatest assets. And I think also on the board of immigration, again, it's an issue as somebody grew up in New Jersey and then was living on the Upper East Side that I didn't know a lot of resonance for but now you're seeing my friends in New York now they're getting a taste of what it can do, you know, to the country. They're becoming big immigration hawks like Trump.
我们重新谈判了北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA），大家都说奥巴马经常说他要修复它，而布什也说他想要解决它。同时，特朗普在一年半的时间里得以完成了这项任务。我们重新谈判了北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA），并在参议院得到了80多张票的通过。这是一场跨党派的胜利。并且它在劳动保护方面达到了最高标准。它对美国的竞争力做出了很多有益的贡献。希望我们能减少贸易逆差。这是他承担起来，其他人不愿意承担的责任。再次，他说，看吧，如果我在这些不同的国家上加征关税是错误的，我记得有人走进他的办公室说，如果你实施这些关税，整个世界都会爆炸。美国经济也会崩溃。我记得和他私下一起坐着的时候。他对我说，不，贾里德，我们已经进行了一年的辩论。关于这个问题，有些人比其他问题更为热衷。他说，你知道吗，贾里德，我已经说了30年了。我相信这一点。我在竞选中提到过。我赢了。我必须去实践它。就像，万一证明它是一场灾难呢？我随时可以退缩。你懂得。这是他的思考方式，他有自己的直觉，他为此而努力。但他知道他随时可以放弃。我认为他的灵活性和不可预测性是他最伟大的优点之一。我还认为，在移民问题上，他也展现出了同样的特点。作为一个在新泽西州长大，然后生活在纽约上东区的人，我对这个问题并没有很深的共鸣，但现在你可以看到，我的纽约朋友们正在尝到它对国家的影响。他们也变成了像特朗普一样的移民强硬派。
The thing that the Republicans need to realize right now is that if you pick these topics that go down a rabbit hole, you're going to be in a really tough spot in the general because the economy is also going to be in reasonable shape. Now, if we were going to go into a November election where we were going to be in a recession, that's very bad for Biden. But sort of the tea leaves for whatever is worth all the predictions, all the predictive markets, sure that we're going to be in a reasonable place. And so the Republicans need to get very, very focused sacks, as you say, on the real issues list here, right? Because they're not going to have the benefit of the tailwind of a bad economy to say President Biden has done a bad job necessarily. And so the message will need to be even more precise and focused. And so I think that that's going to be an important thing.
现在共和党需要意识到的是，如果选择追溯问题的话，会陷入一个非常困难的境地，因为经济也会处于合理的状态。现在，如果我们要进行11月选举，而在那时我们正处于衰退中，那对拜登来说是非常糟糕的。但是，不管怎么预测，所有的预测市场都认为我们会处于一个合理的状态。因此，共和党需要非常非常专注于真正的问题清单，正如你所说的，因为他们不能依靠经济不好这一有利因素来说拜登总统没有做好工作。因此，信息传递需要更加精确和集中。我认为这将是一件重要的事情。
I did a little tea leaf reading on macro if you guys wanted. I have some charts. Yeah. I just gave you a little rundown of, because I went and, you know, look, we used to talk about these things when I was when we were doing a lot of forecasting going into this cycle. But so, here's like a couple of really interesting observations. So the first one is, when you look at this M2 money supply, look how much it's actually shrunk. Now, why that's interesting to me is that you have these two forces that are opposing each other. One is we have these huge deficits. So we're technically still frankly issuing a lot of money, right? But then on the other side, we have QT. So when debt rolls off, we're not re-issuing it. And the balance of that is still a really constructive thing. We're now you can see that, you know, M2 has materially started to shrink. And I think that that's a really positive thing, because now what that does it, it combats inflation in a good way. Unfortunately for all of us, it hurts financial assets, which is not so good. I think we've all felt that pain, but the reality is that that's been working.
我对宏观经济做了一点茶叶预测，如果你们想知道的话。我有一些图表。是的。我刚刚给你们简单的说明了一下，因为我去看了一些东西，你知道的，我们在进入这个周期时曾经讨论过这些问题。所以，这里有一些非常有趣的观察结果。首先，当你看到这个M2货币供给时，请看它实际上缩减了多少。为什么这对我来说很有意思呢，是因为有两股力量在相互抵消。一方面，我们有巨额赤字。所以从技术上讲，我们实际上仍然在大量发行货币，对吧？但另一方面，我们还有QT。所以当债务到期时，我们不再重新发行它。这种平衡仍然是一件非常有建设性的事情。现在你可以看到，M2已经明显开始缩减。我认为这是一件非常积极的事情，因为它能有效地抵制通货膨胀。不幸的是，对我们所有人来说，它会对金融资产造成损害，这并不是非常好的。我想我们都有过那种痛苦的感觉，但现实就是这种方式一直在发挥作用。
So then Nick, if you go to the second chart, so what you see now is like, we are in a really decent place with inflation. And if you think about what's going to happen over the next six months, it's mostly in the bag. And meaning we talked about this before, but there's a lag effect on a handful of components, specifically rents, which when you roll them into this inflation rate, you're going to see it really, really turn over very quickly. Right. So we know that inflation is falling. It's going to fall even more.
那么尼克，如果你看一下第二张图表，你现在看到的情况是，我们的通胀率确实处于一个非常不错的地位。如果你考虑接下来的六个月会发生的情况，它基本上已经确定了。而且我们之前已经讨论过，但有一些组成部分会有滞后效应，特别是租金，当将其计入通胀率时，你会看到它会非常迅速地翻转。对的。所以我们知道通胀率正在下降，而且会进一步下降。
The second thing, Nick, the third chart here is you can see that now validated in these 10 year break events. Remember, this was the chart we used to look at when we were like, holy mac, well, something's going to break in November of 21. I think we probably should have just sold everything we had in November 21. We didn't do it, but the point is now we know. And what you see here is the 10 year break events are also telling us, okay, guys, we're going to be in a pretty decent place.
第二件事，尼克，这是第三张图，你可以看到现在验证了这十年间的突破事件。记得吗，这是当时我们看的图表，我们当时就像，天哪，会有什么事情在21年11月发生。我想我们可能应该在21年11月卖掉我们所有的东西。我们没有这么做，但重要的是现在我们知道了。而你在这里看到的是十年间的突破事件也在告诉我们，好吧，伙计们，我们将处于一个相当不错的位置。
And so I think the setup is basically the following. There's less money in the system. That's a positive. Nick, if you show the last chart, there's more money on the sidelines. And this is just a picture of, I mean, look at the amount of money and money market funds, 6 trillion and growing. So that's a really positive sign, which is that money will need to find a home.
所以，我认为情况基本如下。系统中的资金较少，这是个积极的因素。尼克，如果你展示最后一张图，可以看出越来越多的资金在观望。这只是一个画面，看一下货币市场基金的规模，已经达到6万亿美元并且还在增长。因此，这是一个非常积极的迹象，即这些资金需要找到一个出路。
Once you're on a note, even just now, because you're going to be in a situation where, and I'll get to this in a second, but companies are now starting to perform because they've been able to rebase line against very, very lowered expectations. Right. And money managers have to do their job and deploy capital. And that's something we mentioned, I think last week. But this is now the beginning of the new fiscal year for the entire mutual fund complex. So that's trillions of dollars that have to get deployed because even though you pay them a very small fee per year, you're not paying them to hold cash. You're paying them to make decisions and own assets.
一旦你在笔记上，即使是刚刚的一刻，因为你将处于一种情况下，我马上就会讲到这一点，但是现在公司开始表现出色，因为他们能够与非常非常低的预期进行基准线对比。是的，基金经理们必须履行自己的职责并投资资金。这是我们上周提到过的一些事情。但是现在是整个共同基金行业的新财年的开始。所以要投入数万亿美元的资金，因为尽管你每年支付的费用很少，但你不是让他们持有现金，而是让他们做决策和拥有资产。
And then as you said, free bird, the last part of this is now you introduce rate cuts, and that's a real accelerant. Now, more than likely, I think what that means is that markets are set up to do pretty well equity markets specifically. And so I went and I said, well, how can we see some data that proves that this is happening? And what's amazing is if you look at the performance of what I would call the most risk adjusted seeking companies. So those are tech businesses that have been absolutely hammered. What you see in the last month is they have gone just nuclear, odd yet up 30% in a matter of a week, door dashes up 25 30% in a matter of a week, data dog up 30% in the matter of a week. These are the businesses that were just completely decimated.
然后正如您所说，自由自在的鸟儿，这最后一部分是您介绍降息，这是一种真正的促进因素。现在，很有可能，我认为这意味着市场将表现得相当好，尤其是股票市场。所以我去寻找数据来证明这一点。令人惊讶的是，如果你看一下那些我称之为风险调整寻求的公司的表现。这些是被严重打击的科技公司。在过去一个月中，你会发现它们在一周内出现了爆炸式增长，奇异的涨幅达到了30%，DoorDash和DataDog的涨幅都达到了25%到30%。这些企业曾经遭受了巨大的打击。
So what is all of this saying? I think what what it's kind of saying is inflation is very much in the rear view mirror. Rates are going to get cut by the middle part of the year. The economy looks like it's going to be a soft landing. That is actually very beneficial for the sitting president. It's also good for equities. It's good for us. So it's really interesting, actually, I think we've had a fundamental kind of now change. Jared, do you think this will have an effect on the election cycle?
那么这一切都在说些什么呢？我认为它所说的是通胀已经成为过去，中场降息即将到来。经济似乎将会实现平稳过渡。这对就任总统来说实际上非常有利。对股市也是好事。对我们来说也是好事。所以，实际上很有意思，我认为我们已经发生了根本性的转变。杰瑞德，你认为这会对选举周期产生影响吗？
I think it definitely could, but I do think a lot of people are still very concerned. I know the the the the inflation, the wages wage inflation is still about 4%. I think that people are are still just nervous about what could come. I think there's been a lot of shocks and there's been a couple of times where it's felt that way. And I think that election year is traditionally bring a lot more volatility to the market because there's unpredictability about what the policy will be going forward.
我认为这是有可能的，但是我觉得很多人仍然非常担心。我知道通货膨胀率仍然约为4%。我觉得人们仍然对将来可能发生的事情感到紧张。我觉得已经发生了很多冲击，有几次让人感觉到是这样。而且我觉得选举年通常会给市场带来更多的波动，因为人们无法预测未来的政策会是什么样。
So I think that of people who have kind of been a whiplash from the transition of over the last year to 18 months, see that they're going into another cycle of uncertainty. I do think that now you're actually getting paid to not do anything with your money in those money market accounts. So there's less of a maybe less of a phone mode to kind of go out and do something there. So I think that a lot of people are still going to be very much in kind of wait and see mode and obviously look for special opportunities, which I think will only further exacerbate a potential decline as well.
所以我认为，在过去一年到18个月的过渡期中，那些经历了猛烈变动的人们会发现他们即将进入另一个不确定的循环。我确实认为现在你实际上会得到报酬来让你的钱在货币市场账户中闲置。所以可能没有那么多人愿意拿出电话模式去做些什么。因此，我认为很多人仍然处于观望模式，并且显然会寻找特殊机会，这进一步加剧了潜在的衰退。
Jared, last week we talked about real estate. You used to be in the real estate business. What do you have any thoughts on commercial real estate and how good, bad, average things are?
贾里德，上周我们谈到了房地产。你曾经从事过房地产业务。你对商业房地产有什么看法，它的好坏和平均状况如何？
So I still have a lot of exposure to commercial real estate through my family's company. And we're mostly in the multifamily space.
所以，通过我家族公司，我对商业房地产仍有很多接触。而且我们主要经营多家庭住宅领域。
I think the office space right now is in for a massive change in the industry. I think you're going to see a lot of the older buildings get transitioned. A lot of them are trading now for below land price, which is pretty remarkable.
我认为目前办公空间将在行业中经历一次巨大的变革。我认为你会看到很多老建筑物进行过渡改造。很多这些建筑物现在交易价格甚至低于土地价格，这相当令人惊讶。
I think you have, you also have a transition in kind of what are the cities of growth, right? So you look at a place like San Francisco and there's a big debate over whether AI is going to save the office market there or whether it's kind of like the Detroit of this industrial revolution. And it's just never going to come back. And then you're seeing a lot of these San Francisco companies move to New York and the New York people are saying, oh, there's too much crime and homelessness. And they're saying compared to San Francisco, this looks like a, you know, a super, it's a beautiful place. And so, you know, New York is still doing, I think, okay, but you're seeing a lot of plays throughout the country that are.
我认为你也有一个关于增长城市的转变，对吗？所以你看看像旧金山这样的地方，关于人工智能是否能挽救那里的办公市场，还是像底特律一样，它永远不会复苏。然后你会看到很多旧金山的公司搬到纽约，而纽约的人们会说，哦，这里犯罪和无家可归者太多。他们会说，与旧金山相比，这里看起来像个美丽的地方。所以，我认为纽约还行，但你会看到全国各地有很多这样的情况。
But the fundamental with real estate is it's correlated to interest rates. And so, you know, if interest rates, you know, right now, I think the 10 years, like four and a half, if it goes up to six, then you're just going to see a re-pricing and real estate assets. If it settles at four and a half, five, then you'll probably see more stability and what that will be.
但是房地产的基本特点是它与利率相关。所以，你知道，如果利率，你知道，现在我觉得10年期的利率大约是四分之一，如果它上升到六分之一，那么你将会看到房地产资产的重新定价。如果它稳定在四分之一、五分之一，那么你可能会看到更多的稳定和未来的发展。
But ultimately, real estate has become much more institutionalized over the last, call it two decades. And it's really a function of, you know, what are your rent and expense growths. And then what kind of, what can you borrow at? And can you create, you know, a positive yield that's hopefully a good hedge against inflation? So I think net net, it will be a great asset class. I mean, it's probably one of the biggest asset classes in the world.
但最终，房地产在过去的二十年里变得更加机构化。这实际上是由于租金和费用的增长。然后要看你能借到多少钱，能否创造一个对抗通胀的正收益率。所以我认为总体来说，房地产将是一种很好的资产类别。我想它可能是世界上最大的资产类别之一。
I think right now, though, a lot of people are just holding back because they're not certain what the, what the multiples or cap rates as they call them in real estate are going to be on a forward basis. But they're really going to be a function of what's the growth in the economy going to be. And then also what the forward interest rates will be.
我认为现在很多人都在观望，因为他们不确定房地产中所说的倍数或资本化率在前进的基础上将会是多少。但这些倍数或资本化率实际上会取决于经济增长率和未来的利率水平。
That's fair. I think that everything is challenged in real estate. I mean, the demand size challenge, because you've had the whole work from home, COVID disruption, and a lot of cities haven't fully come back. I think New York's come back at this point, but like San Francisco definitely has it. I think New York is something like 95% of workers are back in the office. I think in San Francisco, it's only like 45%. So you've got demand issues, then you've got financing issues. Refinancing is much more expensive because it generates a higher, and then you've got these cap rate issues where no one knows what the long-term valuations are going to be.
没错。我认为房地产行业面临的一切都受到了挑战。我的意思是，需求量面临挑战，因为我们经历了全员在家办公和新冠疫情的打乱，很多城市还没有完全恢复过来。我认为纽约已经恢复了，但是旧金山确实没有。我认为纽约已经有95%的员工回到了办公室。而在旧金山，只有45%。所以你面临需求问题，还有融资问题。再融资成本更高，因为它会产生更高的成本，然后你还面临着这些资本化率问题，没人知道长期估值会是什么样的。
So everything's a mess. And by the way, that gets compounded by the fact that now banks that have office exposure are pulling back their lending. So you have a combination of cost of borrowing being higher, and then the availability of liquidity going lower. And that's could further compound a lot of these refinances. But a lot of what the people I know in the industry are telling me is that they're able just to work with existing lenders and just do some kind of extension and just kind of live to fight for another day to get through the cycle.
所以现在一切都很混乱。而且，更加糟糕的是，现在那些在办公环境中存在风险的银行正在收紧贷款。因此，你既要面对借贷成本上升的情况，又要应对流动性供应减少的问题。这可能进一步加剧许多重新融资问题。但是，我认识的行业人士告诉我的很多情况是，他们可以与现有的债权人合作，延长一些期限，以在这个周期中继续努力。
And I will say in New York that the rental rates for residential, I think, are at a historic highs. And actually, what my family's seen in their portfolio is that their properties in Jersey City, which is basically like the six-bar row of New York, are just absolutely on fire because it's basically, you go into New York now, you go to a CVS, everything's locked up, you can't buy anything. It doesn't feel necessarily like the safest city. You go to Jersey City, they actually have like, you know, law and order and rule of law. And so you still take a train to New York, and that's actually been a place that's done incredibly well. So you always have micro markets, and you have different trends that work and don't work. But I wouldn't bet against New York. It's still an amazing city.
我会在纽约说，我认为住宅租金率达到了历史最高水平。实际上，我家在泽西城的房产，这个地方基本上就像纽约的第六大街一样，真的是火得不行，因为你现在去纽约，去一家CVS，里面东西都被锁住了，什么都买不到。这里也不一定感觉是最安全的城市。你去泽西城，他们实际上有法律和秩序。所以你还是可以坐火车去纽约，而且这个地方发展得非常好。所以总会有小的市场和不同的趋势，有些成功有些不成功。但我不会押注对纽约不利。它仍然是一个令人惊叹的城市。
And one thing about New York is every time I'm there, I always talk with some of the cops. And I basically ask them, I say, if you had a mayor that said, go be cops, go be cops, nobody's going to hold you back, get out of the car, do what you do, we got you back. How long would it take you to clean this place up? And the answer I get is usually anywhere from like three months to six months. So like, we could have this place fixed. So clearly, these have to let us be cops again. And so I am hopeful that eventually there will be the political will to just let New York be what it has the potential to be. It's such an amazing dynamic place.
关于纽约的一件事是，每次我在那里时，我总是和一些警察聊天。我基本上问他们，我说，如果你们的市长说，去成为警察，没有人会阻止你们，下车，做你们该做的事情，我们会支持你们。你们需要多长时间来清理这个地方？我得到的答案通常是三个月到六个月左右。所以我们可以修复这个地方。所以很明显，他们必须让我们再次成为警察。因此，我对最终会有政治意愿来让纽约成为它潜力所在的样子抱有希望。它是一个如此令人惊叹且充满活力的地方。
It's such a good point. I mean, it really is just a matter of political will. If you hire more cops and let them do their job, that will stop the crime or certainly the incentive for crime.
这个观点非常好，我的意思是，这实际上只是政治意愿的问题。如果你雇佣更多的警察并让他们做好自己的工作，那将会阻止犯罪，或者至少削减犯罪的动机。
Right now, people think they can get away with this stuff. And they don't get prosecuted when they get caught. The jails are like a revolving door. Yeah, they have plenty of cops. They just have to let them do their jobs and they need prosecutors who will do their jobs as well. I worked at Manhattan District Attorney's office when I was at NYU Law for the summer.
现在，人们认为他们可以逃脱这些事情的惩罚。而且，一旦被捕，他们也不会被追究责任。监狱就像一个旋转的门。是的，他们有很多警察。他们只需要让他们履行职责，并且他们也需要有责任心的检察官。我在纽约大学法学院的暑期期间在曼哈顿地区检察官办公室工作过。
I mean, you have amazing people there. And if they are allowed to kind of follow the procedures and just do the job and the way it's been done before, you can make that city very, very safe very quickly. We actually have a cop shortage in San Francisco as well. It's not just a matter of not letting them do their job. We actually have a massive shortage.
我的意思是，你们那里有很棒的人才。如果他们被允许按照程序去做工作，按照以前的方式去做，你们可以使这个城市非常非常安全。实际上，我们在旧金山也面临着警察人员不足的问题。问题不仅在于不让他们尽职，实际上我们存在巨大的人员短缺。
The city needs to hire a lot more. They allowed a pretty high rate of attrition in the role. I don't think there's a lot of people who want to be cops in San Francisco. It's a pretty tough job and they don't get a lot of support. So yeah, we actually have a shortage here. That's a big problem. But it's very solvable, as you say. I mean, just hire more, train them, let them do their jobs.
这个城市需要增加很多人员。他们对这个职位的流失率相当高。我认为在旧金山没有太多人愿意当警察。这是一份相当艰难的工作，而且他们得不到太多支持。所以，是的，我们实际上在这方面存在着人手不足的问题。这是一个大问题。但正如你所说，这个问题是可以解决的。我的意思是，只要多雇用一些人，培训他们，让他们去做自己的工作。
Jared, how much do you think federal deficits and the federal debt matters going to this election cycle? Is it going to be a top topic or is it not really going to matter? And then more importantly, how consequential is it in reality?
贾里德，你认为联邦赤字和联邦债务对于这个选举周期有多重要呢？它是否会成为一个重要话题，或者它是否无关紧要？而更重要的是，它在现实中有多大的影响力？
I think in reality, it's massively consequential. I think in the election cycle, I think both parties are going to probably try to avoid talking about it because I think that everyone knows what I find in politics is when something's a really big issue. People try not to talk about it that much. The top is. And the top is. I'm going to have to get cut. Right? The hope is, is that once you get through the election, things can be done to have to deal with it.
我认为实际上，这是非常重要的。在选举周期内，我认为两个政党可能会尽量避免谈论它，因为我认为每个人都知道，在政治中，当某个问题很大时，人们常常尽量避免谈论它。这是首要问题。这是首要问题。我可能不得不被切除，对吧？希望是，一旦选举结束，就可以采取措施来应对这一问题。
But it's definitely an issue that needs to be dealt with. What do you think that is? Raising revenue or cutting expenses or both?
但这绝对是一个需要处理的问题。你认为是增加收入还是削减开支，还是两者都需要？
Growth. Growth is the answer everyone. But we can see that. That's the political cop-out answer is growth. Six percent economic GDP growth. How about we freeze spending until the denominator can grow big enough to reduce the. I mean, balanced budget amendment, etc.
增长。增长是每个人都在寻找的答案。但我们可以看到，那是政治上的逃避答案，就是增长。经济GDP增长6%。我们可以冻结开支，直到分母足够大以减少开支。我的意思是，制定平衡预算修正案等等。
But speaking of GDP growth, I mean, do you guys want to cover tech stories and AI this week real quick before we. I mean, it's really incredible. Can I just. I got. I can't resist getting Jared on the record about the Russia-Ukraine war.
但是说到国内生产总值(GDP）的增长，我的意思是，大家在我们开始之前，本周是否想先简要讨论一下科技新闻和人工智能。我是说，这真的很不可思议。我能不能....我有点忍不住了，想听听杰里德对于俄罗斯-乌克兰战争的看法？
So, I mean, this is a war that I thought was very easily avoidable. You have a one-minute budget. One-minute budget. One-minute. That's all I need. I'm starting this shot clock. Jamal is going to ring the gavel. I'm going to take a break. Go, you got 60 seconds.
所以，我的意思是，这场战争是我认为非常容易避免的。你有一分钟的预算。一分钟的预算。一分钟。这就是我所需要的。我要开始倒计时了。贾马尔将敲响槌子。我要休息一下。开始吧，你有60秒。
Well, I think David's happy to have somebody on who agrees with him on most of what he's been saying. So, yeah, we worked with Ukraine and we worked well with Russia during our four years. I'd like to point out to people that when we were in kind of our worst moments in COVID, the second country that sent us a plain load of supplies and ventilators when New York looked like it was on the verge of going under was Russia.
嗯，我认为大卫很高兴有个人同意他说的大部分观点。所以，在我们的四年任期中，我们与乌克兰合作得很好，也与俄罗斯合作得很好。我想指出一下，当我们在COVID最糟糕的时刻，当纽约看起来即将陷入困境时，俄罗斯是第二个向我们派遣飞机装载物资和呼吸机的国家。
And that was because we were offering them the possibility of working together. We armed Ukraine, but we also told Ukraine, don't even think about raising NATO as membership as a way to go. I think what happened was, is the Biden administration had conversations with Ukraine about joining NATO. Russia basically pushed their military to the front line to say, we are never going to let this happen. If you go through the geography and the history, you understand why Russia will never let that occur.
那是因为我们给予了他们共同合作的可能性。我们武装了乌克兰，但我们也告诉乌克兰，不要想着通过加入北约来实现这一目标。我认为拜登政府与乌克兰进行了加入北约的对话。俄罗斯基本上将他们的军队推到前线，表示我们绝不会让这种事情发生。如果你了解地理和历史，你就会明白为什么俄罗斯不会允许这种情况发生。
I think it was right after the embarrassment of what happened with our withdrawal in Afghanistan, where they thought that we had a weak America that was going to come and do much to it. So, I think it was all very, very avoidable. I think that from what I read, and again, I wasn't involved in these conversations. It did feel like there were some off-ramps initially.
我认为这一切都源于阿富汗撤军的尴尬事件，他们认为我们的美国是软弱的，会对他们采取行动。所以我认为，这一切都是可以避免的。从我所了解的情况来看，虽然我没有参与这些对话，但一开始确实存在一些转机的机会。
But I do think that from our perspective, I think the number one interest has always been, how do we avoid a nuclear war? I don't think that that's something we want to see happen. And I do think that hopefully they'll be able to find some kind of resolution to not have that be a problem. And I will say too that that's impacting the Middle East.
从我们的角度来看，我认为我们最关心的是如何避免核战争的发生。我想我们都不希望看到这种情况发生。我也相信，他们希望能够找到某种解决办法，使这不再成为一个问题。同时，我也要说，这也对中东产生了影响。
Right now, what's happening with Israel and with the Palestinians in Iran is basically a proxy war for Russia. If the America decided tomorrow, let's change and support the Palestinians, then Russia would come and be for Israel. There's not a lot of ideology for them in that.
目前，以色列和巴勒斯坦在伊朗的冲突基本上是俄罗斯的代理战争。如果美国明天决定转变立场，支持巴勒斯坦人，那么俄罗斯会转而支持以色列。对他们来说，这并不涉及太多意识形态。
But I think Russia and China want to see the US stretched and distracted so that we're less focused on the areas where we're more directly in conflict with them. And so, I think that that's a very major thing. And I will say too, I think that I don't believe that the countries have permanent allies or permanent enemies.
但是我认为俄罗斯和中国希望看到美国分散和分心，这样我们就不会那么专注于与他们直接发生冲突的地区。所以，我认为这是一个非常重要的问题。我还要说，我不认为国家有永久的盟友或永久的敌人。
During my time in government, we deal with the Germans and the Japanese who were vicious in World War II. And we'd be against the Chinese and we'd be against the Russians who basically are allies in World War II. And so, I don't think countries really have friends. I think countries have interests. And I think that with most countries, you have areas of overlapping interests. And I think that you can find those even with countries where you're in opposition for.
在我担任政府职务期间，我们与在第二次世界大战中表现凶残的德国人和日本人打交道。我们与中国人和俄罗斯人进行斗争，尽管它们基本上是二战中的盟友。因此，我认为国家没有真正的朋友，只有利益。我认为大多数国家都有一些共同的利益领域。我认为，即使与你处于对立地位的国家，你也可以找到这些共同点。
So, one of the operating principles I brought to all the different foreign policy problems sets I was given was don't condemn tomorrow to be like yesterday, because you think it has to be. And so, I would always look at something I'd try to pull whatever optimism I could find and then say, what's the best case scenario from a first principles perspective? I'd start there and then I'd work through all the problems that you had to try to get there.
所以，我在处理所有不同的外交政策问题时，带来的一个操作原则是，不要将明天定为像昨天一样的结局，仅仅因为你认为它必须如此。因此，我总是会看待某个问题，并尽可能寻找其中的乐观因素，然后问自己，从首要原则来看，最好的情况是什么？我会从那里开始，并通过解决所有问题来努力达到那个目标。
So, David, I think you've been way more right on Ukraine than others. And I do think there's been a tremendous amount that's been mismanaged by the US and by the world in that scenario. And I think it's unfortunate too, because I think a lot of people have been killed in that war. And I do think that obviously the invasion of Ukraine was a terrible thing. It should never have happened. But I do think there's a lot of acts by leaders that could have been done in order to either prevent it or minimize it. And I still think that that's the job of leaders in the world, is to try to do the hard things and try to do the things to make the world a less volatile and dangerous place.
所以，David，我认为在乌克兰问题上，你比其他人更加正确。我也确实认为美国和全世界在那个情况下处理得很糟糕。我认为这也很不幸，因为我认为在那场战争中有很多人被杀害了。我确信乌克兰的入侵是一件可怕的事情，本不应该发生。但我认为领导人可以采取很多行动来阻止或减少它。我仍然认为这是世界领导人的工作，努力去做那些困难的事情，努力让世界变得不那么动荡和危险。
You think it's coming to an end? It's definitely lost its prominence. It does seem militarily. Again, I'm sitting here in Miami reading X and newspapers and talking to folks. I'm not going to apply like I'm a general on the front lines. But it does seem like it's reached a point where it's not much is going to change militarily. And again, every day that goes on, there's just more life that's being lost.
你认为这已经接近尾声了吗？它确实失去了显要地位。从军事角度来看，的确如此。再次强调，我就在迈阿密这里阅读X报纸，和人们交谈。我不会假装自己是在前线的将军。但它似乎已经达到了一个军事上不会有太多变化的地步。而且，每一天都有更多生命在消逝。
And again, I said the same thing with Israel that I'd say here. I mean, Russian, Ukraine both have unbelievably brilliant people. If you take all these young men and you take them off the battle lines and put them back into their jobs of creating things, I just think that net net that's just a much better thing for the world. So my hope is that the leaders involved try to find a way to get to a resolution. Again, I think that both sides have maybe over promised their people what victory looks like, but that's the job of negotiation. You need to find an off ramp for everyone and get them to a place where we can start focusing on how to make tomorrow better instead of litigating grievances from the past.
再说一次，我和对以色列的看法与我在这里说的一样。我的意思是，俄罗斯和乌克兰都有非常出色的人才。如果把这些年轻人从战线上抽出来，让他们回到创造事物的工作岗位上，我认为从整体上来看，这对世界来说是更好的。所以，我希望参与的领导人能够找到解决办法。再次强调，我认为双方都可能在向自己的人民承诺了过高的胜利目标，但这是谈判的任务。你需要给每个人找到一条转弯的道路，让他们能够到达一个我们可以开始着眼于如何让明天更好的地方，而不是过去的纠纷。
Do you guys see that Sonny? Sonny tweeted this thing. He had dinner last night with Farhan Thawar, who is the VP of engineering at Shopify. Did you see his tweet? Can you find it? He said that Shopify has written more than a million lines of code with co-pilot already. Oh, wow. I was like, what? Yeah.
你们看到那个Sonny了吗？Sonny在推特上发了一条消息。昨晚他和Shopify的工程副总裁Farhan Thawar一起吃了晚饭。你看到他的推特了吗？你能找到吗？他说Shopify已经用co-pilot写了超过一百万行代码。哇，真是让我吃惊。我当时想，什么？是啊。
I mean, I don't exactly know how there's your GDP growth, Jared. Well, that's definitely growth. I wonder whether it'll be it'll be GD. I mean, I think it will. I think a lot of productivity gains are going to drive the economy forward.
我的意思是，我不是很清楚你们的国内生产总值增长是如何实现的，贾里德。嗯，那绝对是增长。我想知道是否会是国内生产总值的增长。我的意思是，我认为会是的。我认为很多生产力的提升将推动经济前进。
Historically, I was just talking with someone this past week about over the last couple of decades, we've seen a massive shift on GDP growth being driven largely by labor, the labor force growing and labor participation. And increasingly, in the last couple of years, there's been this tremendous shift that all GDP growth is predominantly driven by productivity gains and productivity gains economically net their way through the system. And you see the total GDP growth. This is the whole argument for AI, particularly in a moment like this, that if you're having a declining population, you're having declining labor participation, people want to work fewer hours. If you want to keep growing the economy in order to sustain the debt and the services that you provide through government infrastructure, you have to grow the economy and you have to increase productivity. It's the only way forward.
历史上，我刚刚和某人谈到，在过去的几十年里，我们已经看到GDP增长在很大程度上是由劳动力推动的，劳动力不断增长和参与劳动力。而在过去几年中，有一个巨大的转变，所有的GDP增长主要是由生产力的提高推动的，并且这种生产力的提高经济上穿透整个系统。你可以看到总的GDP增长。这就是AI的全部论点，尤其是在这个时刻，如果人口减少，劳动参与度下降，人们希望减少工作时间。如果你想让经济继续增长以维持债务和通过政府基础设施提供的服务，你必须增长经济并提高生产力。这是前进的唯一途径。
I mean, you could have one it's not like you're going to fire engineers, you're just going to have one engineer do five times as much. If you just solve the whole budget deficit and debt issue, you found the answer. I'm here for productivity driven by the AI advancements, which by the way, there is a lot of tremendous productivity gains that will occur because of this. I always give people the example of the tractor. When the tractor came around, it's not like people were like, hey, we're going to make less food now or what happened was we were able to farm 10 times as much and total output increased. And when total output increased, there was an abundance, a surplus of food of calories that said people population grew, the overall economy grew. There's no point in history that we've had a productivity gain through technology that didn't ultimately grow the economy. It's never gone the other way.
我的意思是，你可以这样做，不像你会解雇工程师，只是让一个工程师做五倍的工作量而已。如果你能解决整个预算赤字和债务问题，就能找到答案了。我在这里是为了AI技术进步所带来的生产力增长，顺便说一句，将会有很多巨大的生产力收益。我总是给人们举拖拉机的例子。当拖拉机出现时，并不是人们说“嘿，我们以后要生产更少的食物了”，相反我们能够种植多出十倍的食物，总产出也增加了。随着总产出的增长，食物和能量的过剩导致人口增长，整个经济也增长了。历史上没有一次技术的生产力提升不会最终促进经济增长的。从来没有发生过反向的情况。
In 1900, I think about 50% of workers in America were somehow involved in agriculture. By 2000, it was down to 2%. So it's not like we had a 40% unemployment rate. All these other things grow. We figured out a way to do new and productive things and that led to more wealth. That being said, it did cause a lot of social disruption. And I think certain job classes went away. It had to get replaced by others that had to be invented. If you think about a world where there's a million little companies or 50 million companies or 500 million companies that exist because they're one in two person teams that can build stuff, that seems pretty reasonable and logical as the outcome. There's a lot of sort of like financial engineering that kind of goes away in that world. I think the job of the venture capitalist change is really profoundly. I think there's a reasonable case to make that it doesn't exist. It's more of an automated system of capital against objectives. And that you want to be making many, many, many small, 100,000, 500,000 bets. And then you get to this much larger scale where then you, once you get someplace, you can go and get the 100 and 200 million dollar checks. I don't know how else all of this gets supported financially.
1900年，我认为大约50%的美国工人与农业有关。到了2000年，这个比例下降到2%。所以并不是说我们有40%的失业率。其他的一切都在增长。我们找到了一种新的、有生产力的方式，这导致了更多的财富。也就是说，这确实引起了很多社会混乱。我认为某些职业类别消失了，必须由其他需要发明的职业类别取而代之。如果你想象一个有100万小公司、5000万公司或者5亿家公司的世界，因为它们是由一个或两个人的团队来建立的，这似乎是合理和逻辑的结果。在那个世界里，有很多金融工程似乎会消失。我认为风险投资家的工作会发生根本性的变化。我认为有理由认为它将不存在，而是一种面向目标的自动化的资本系统。你应该进行多次小额的投注，然后才能达到更大的规模，然后才能得到1亿或2亿美元的支票。我不知道其他所有这些如何在财务上得到支持。
Well, so there were a couple of big news stories this week. One was Elon launched Grock, which is a chat GPT call it competitor. It took them about under his XAI business unit, took them about eight months to arrange Grock 1, which is the model. And by many measures is as performative as GPT 3.5, GPT 4 at the same normal. Grock 0, it took three months to train Grock 0. He's still training Grock 1. Sorry, three months to train Grock 0. Kai Fu Lee, you guys know Kai Fu. He was at Google. He was at Microsoft. He's sure it's Google search. Yeah. And he is in China and built his business starting eight months ago. And in those eight months, he's now delivered a 34 billion parameter model that he's completely open source that he shows by, again, some performative metrics outperforms Loma2. And again, doing it from China speaks, I think, really clearly and importantly to the point we talked about last week about if the US tries to over regulate AI model development, there are alternatives out there, particularly open source alternatives that will continue to proliferate and improve. And again, this was done in eight months.
嗯，所以这个星期有一些重大新闻。其中一个是埃隆发布了Grock，这是一个聊天GPT（生成对抗网络）称之为竞争对手。他们在他的XAI（解释型人工智能）业务部门花了大约八个月的时间准备Grock 1这个模型。就许多指标而言，它的性能与GPT 3.5和GPT 4相当。而Grock 0的训练只用了三个月。你们知道李开复，他曾在谷歌和微软工作，负责谷歌搜索。在八个月前，他在中国创立了自己的公司。在这八个月里，他已经开发出了一个包含340亿参数的模型，完全开放源代码，并且通过一些性能指标显示出胜过洛马2。而且这是从中国完成的，对我们上周讨论过的问题表达得非常明确和重要，即如果美国试图过度监管AI模型的开发，那么就会有其他选择，特别是会继续涌现和改进的开源替代方案。再次强调，这是在八个月内完成的。
And then it's almost like the timing was perfect because in the same week, open AI responds with developer day. They didn't necessarily respond, but they had developer day on the books for a long time. And at developer day, open AI released a number of really powerful tools for developers that allow them to build really powerful applications and infrastructure on top of open AI platform. So they released APIs for Dolly 3, a four cents to generate an image using the Dolly 3 API. They launched a tool to create your own GPT, which can actually leverage proprietary data. So from within your own database, you're in your own data lake. You can build a GPT that you can then integrate into applications and GPT for turbo with two versions that had pretty powerful pricing improvements. All of this being said, it's a big leap forward in what feels like a low cost, low friction, multimodal developer friendly set of tools from open AI that allows them to move away from having the quote best model to now having what feels like much more of a platform business that as more applications and more developers start to utilize open AI toolkit and services, a real ecosystem starts to develop. And that creates a sustainable business mode rather than just the technical mode that open AI started with.
然后，几乎就像时机很完美一样，因为在同一周，开放AI进行了开发者日活动。虽然他们并不是直接回应，但他们早就计划好了开发者日活动。在开发者日活动上，开放AI发布了许多强大的工具，可以供开发者在开放AI平台上构建功能强大的应用程序和基础设施。他们为Dolly 3推出了API，通过Dolly 3 API生成图像的价格是四分之一。他们推出了一个工具，可以创建自己的GPT，并且可以利用专有数据。因此，在自己的数据库和数据湖中，您可以构建一个GPT，并将其整合到应用程序和GPT Turbo中，这两个版本的性能都有显著提升。总的来说，这意味着开放AI迈向了一个新的阶段，他们提供了成本低、摩擦小、支持多模态开发者友好的工具集，使他们能够从要拥有所谓的“最佳模型”转变为拥有更像一个平台业务。随着更多的应用程序和开发者开始使用开放AI的工具包和服务，一个真正的生态系统开始形成。这将创造一个可持续的商业模式，而不仅仅是开放AI最初的技术模式。
So I think the big point is that we're seeing the technical gap narrow between the best and the average or the worst in the median in model development. We're also now seeing that the evolution for a lot of these businesses is through open AI trying to build applications on top of a platform and build a business mode. And so there's a real shift underway. But net net, I think what the market's forcing everyone to do is really compete and build these incredible capabilities that are really going to launch a number of new business models, new innovations, new industries.
我认为重点在于我们正在看到在模型开发中，最佳、平均和最差之间的技术差距正在缩小。我们现在也看到，很多企业的发展是通过开放式人工智能来构建应用程序并建立商业模式。因此，正在进行着一个真正的转变。总体而言，我认为市场迫使每个人真正竞争并建立这些令人难以置信的能力，这将推动许多新的商业模式、创新和产业的出现。
Are we building apps for the iOS app store? Are we building web pages for the open internet? And I think open AI's hope is that it's apps for the app store because it's proprietary and they want to they could take a share. I think the reality is it's going to end up as the open web. And again, I think it's mostly because everybody else just can't afford to let one company run away with it. And so, you know, whether it's llama or Mistral or even grok when Elon open source is it, it's going to allow people to have access to these tools basically for free.
我们是为iOS应用商店开发应用程序吗？我们是为开放互联网建设网页吗？我认为OpenAI希望的是应用程序能进入应用商店，因为它是专有的，他们希望能分一杯羹。但我认为现实是它最终会成为开放的互联网。而且，我觉得主要原因是其他公司都不能承受任由一家公司独大。因此，不管是llama、Mistral还是甚至是Elon开源的grok，都将使人们能够免费获取这些工具。
The problem that I think it creates is, you know, we had a, you know, when I first came to the United States, my, the company that I worked at, AOL, they were the ones that believed in a fundamentally closed internet, right? And you had this service and you went into the walled garden of AOL. And then the pendulum swung over the last 20 years and we opened it up, but Facebook and at other places. And now we have this fundamentally open architecture. The problem now is these models will not get better, unless you have fine tuning that happens by yourself or these reinforcement learning loops that come from data that you control. And you can see it with grok zero part of what makes grok really successful is that Elon and only Elon can give access to the X fire hose to grok. Now that's a ginormous repository of proprietary data that they're going to be able to train on. So then the question is, well, obviously then Facebook will want to train their models on Instagram and their models on WhatsApp, Google will want to train Gemini on Gmail. None of those companies will want to make that available to any other model. And so the unfortunate byproduct of a more of foundational models that are more pervasive is going to be that the internet gets a little bit more closed in the short term. And we're going to have to really figure out what the implications of that are.
我认为这个问题产生的影响是，你知道的，当我第一次来到美国的时候，我所工作的公司AOL是那些坚信基本上封闭互联网的人，对吧？你使用他们的服务进入到AOL的“围墙花园”中。然后在过去的20年间，局势发生了逆转，我们将互联网开放了起来，但是Facebook和其他地方又改变了这一情况。现在的问题是，如果你没有自己进行微调，或者没有由你控制的数据提供的强化学习循环，这些模型将不会变得更好。你可以从grok zero那里看到这一点，grok之所以如此成功的部分原因就是Elon只有他自己才能给grok访问X fire hose的权限。这是一个庞大的专有数据储存库，他们将能够在这上面进行训练。然后问题就是，显然Facebook会希望在Instagram和WhatsApp上训练他们的模型，谷歌也会希望在Gmail上训练Gemini。但这些公司都不希望将这些数据开放给其他模型使用。因此，更广泛应用的基础模型的一个不幸的副产品是短期内互联网会变得更加封闭。我们必须真正弄清楚这带来的影响是什么。
So I think what that means economically is there's just going to be a lot more small companies and a lot fewer of these ginormous outcomes. And that's on balance probably better for innovation in the economy probably. Data is the advantage, not the model itself. You have to own some data asset that is unique so that you can train these models. And then you have to close it off so nobody else can have access to it. And that has to be an explicit business decision because it would be foolish for you to not do that.
所以从经济角度来说，我认为这意味着会有更多的小公司，而这些巨大的结果会更少。从整体上来看，这对经济创新可能更有利。数据是优势，而不是模型本身。你必须拥有一些独特的数据资产，以便可以训练这些模型。然后，你必须将其关闭，这样其他人就无法访问。而这必须是一个明确的商业决策，因为不这样做是愚蠢的。
Sats, did you take anything away from this week's announcements with KIFU, Elon, and OpenAI's developer day? Grok is interesting as an AI because it has a sense of humor. I mean, that's what's kind of interesting about the user experience is it tries to be funny and has a sense of irony. It's also going to be more politically incorrect. And I think one of the concerns about CHET GPT early on was that it was programmed to be woke and that it wasn't giving people truthful answers about a lot of things. The censorship was being built into the answers. And there was a lot of examples very early on where it seemed like there was some sort of trust and safety layer that had been built on top of the AI and sometimes it would intervene and not give you the true answer that came from the AI would give you some made up boiler plate. And so having something like rock around will at a minimum keep OpenAI honest and keep CHET GPT honest because if it's willing to give you truthful answers about things that you compare to the CHET GPT answer, then we're going to know when these so-called trust and safety interventions are happening. So I think that's kind of interesting.
Sats，你对本周关于KIFU、埃隆和OpenAI的开发者日的公告有什么新收获吗？Grok作为一种具有幽默感的AI很有趣。我是说，这就是用户体验中有趣的地方，它试图幽默并带有一种讽刺感。它也将更不拘一格。我认为早期关于CHET GPT的担忧之一就是它被编程成了唤醒状态，并且在很多问题上没有给人们真实的答案。审查制度被嵌入到了答案中。早期有很多例子，似乎有一种被称为信任和安全层的东西被建立在人工智能之上，有时它会干预并不给你源自人工智能的真实答案，而是给你一些虚构的模板答案。所以有像rock这样的东西至少能让OpenAI保持诚实，让CHET GPT保持诚实，因为如果它愿意给你关于事物的真实答案，你可以将其与CHET GPT的答案进行比较，那么我们就能知道这些所谓的信任和安全干预何时发生。所以我认为这挺有意思的。
Separately, the OpenAI developer day shows that company, if you want to call it that, I don't know if it's a company or a foundation or what, but it's a complicated legal entity. I mean, they are- What does it are? Those are details. Those are details. I mean, they are really trucking along at full speed. I mean, it is pretty impressive what they're shipping. And even if the underlying language models get somewhat commoditized, it does seem like they're building a very robust developer ecosystem. So you could analogize it to something like Stripe where credit card payments are pretty much a commodity, but everyone uses Stripe because their dev tools are so good. And then they're able to get to a bunch of scale network effects because again, their developer platform is so good. So I do think that that's the advantage for OpenAI may not be the model itself. Although I think their model is actually pretty good, but it's- is it that much better than llama 2? Probably not, but the developer platform is getting really good.
分隔开来，OpenAI的开发者日活动表明这个公司（或许应该这么称呼，但我不确定它到底是个公司还是基金会）是一个复杂的法律实体。我的意思是，它们正在以全速前进，这是令人印象深刻的。即使基础语言模型有些变得普遍化，它们似乎正在构建一个非常强大的开发者生态系统。你可以把它类比为Stripe，信用卡支付基本上是普通商品，但每个人都使用Stripe，因为他们的开发工具非常好。然后他们能够获得一系列规模网络效应，因为他们的开发者平台非常优秀。所以我认为OpenAI的优势可能不在于模型本身。尽管我认为它们的模型确实很不错，但它是否比llama 2好太多呢？可能不是，但开发者平台正在变得非常出色。
By the way, that's a really interesting analogy because if you play that out and you say, is AI like payments? Well, what does the payments landscape look like in terms of companies that have real enterprise value? There are, I guess, three or four big ones. And then there's a bunch of long tail ones in specific geographies because there are these random rules in the country and you build something to be very specific to it and you have value in that market or in that use case. And maybe there's a maybe there's an analogy there and how this market develops in that sense. There's four or five big foundational models and then there's a bunch of small vertical use applications that you use depending on what the task is.
顺便一提，这个类比非常有趣，因为如果你深入思考，你会发现，人工智能是否像支付一样？那么，从企业价值的角度来看，支付领域是什么样子的呢？大概有三到四个大的公司，还有一些因为特定地域的随机规则而存在的小公司。这些公司根据当地的规则构建了很具体的产品，因此在该市场或使用情景中具有价值。也许，在这个市场发展中，存在一种相似的情景。有四到五个重要的基础模型，然后还有一些针对具体任务的小型垂直应用。根据任务的不同，你会选择使用这些应用。
Well, the time and the cost to build new foundational model seems to be shrinking at a pretty fast clip. So- And by the way, all of this happened on H100s. Yeah. And a bunch of these happen on A100s. So we're still one generation of silicon behind. So to your point, this thing is going to be like people will be training models in weeks. Yeah. So let's go ahead and track all the world's models and have a federal regulatory body. I'll receive all of this. Well, I have a guy from the UK on the H1B. So I'm still filling out the TPS report because he I told him don't touch the model and he did. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Definitely following high level from my perspective. I think it's it's great, especially with what you mentioned about Kifu Lee. It just confirms what we've thought, which is that America is definitely leading in this. And I think that it's just important to to note that they're leading be really because of the private sector and the fact that the private sector has been allowed to do what they do.
嗯，构建新的基础模型所需的时间和成本似乎正在以相当快的速度缩小。顺便说一下，所有这一切都是在H100上完成的。是的，还有一些是在A100上完成的。所以我们仍然落后一代硅。所以按照你的意思，人们将会在几周内训练模型。是的，那我们就来追踪全球所有的模型，并设立一个联邦监管机构。我会接手这一切。嗯，我有一个来自英国的H1B签证员工，所以我还在填写TPS报告，因为我告诉过他不要碰模型，但他碰了。是的，是的，是的，是的。从我的角度来看，绝对有高层次的追踪。我认为这很棒，特别是你提到李开复的事情。这证实了我们的想法，即美国肯定在这方面处于领先地位。我认为重要的是要注意，他们之所以领先，真的是因为私营部门被允许做他们擅长的事情。
And as we start to think about the regulatory frameworks, I mean, you could think of a open AI as a as a company or a foundation or even as a nation state with with kind of the amount of power that these things will have the ability to to harness once they're they're fully scaled. And I just think it's it's it's going to be very interesting to see I think the more competitive competition you have here, I think the better. It will be very, very good. But I do think you want the most powerful models and most powerful platforms to be in the hands of people who are going to try to apply it for all the right all the right things for society. So I think that there's a lot of positive applications, there's a lot of negative applications that can come from this. And my hope is that the regulatory frameworks that are developed won't stifle innovation at the expense of allowing others to get ahead of us who will probably use them in ways that we would not want to see them used. Right.
当我们开始思考监管框架时，我指的是，你可以将一个开放的AI看作是一家公司、一个基金会，甚至一个具有巨大权力的国家，一旦它们完全成熟，就有能力利用这些力量。我认为，这将是非常有趣的一件事情，我认为在这里竞争越激烈，情况将会变得越好。这将非常非常好。但我认为，你希望最强大的模型和平台掌握在那些会努力将其应用于社会的人手中。因此，我认为这有很多积极的应用，也有很多负面的应用。我希望开发的监管框架不会以抑制创新为代价，让其他人领先于我们，并可能以我们不希望看到的方式使用它们。对吧。
Can I fly a couple of features that open AI announced that I think are interesting? Yeah. As long as you don't repeat what I said, because you weren't paying attention. But yeah, let's go for it. Well, did you mention the well, if I got the song, delete it, but did you mention the 128 K context window? No, I did not. I did not. I did not. Okay. I think it's kind of a big deal. What that means is you can have a prompt that has 300 pages of text in it. Yes. I'll tell you, like several months ago, I was trying to figure out, like, is there a way where I could just put all of my blog posts in a prompt for chat GPT and have it turned into a book, for example. And I was kind of like a problem I just started working on. It was actually very complicated to un-solve that. Also, like, also vector DBs were a totally useless intermediate. Like that abstraction didn't need to exist. That's all gone now, too. They're doing those guys are firing on all cylinders. It's really impressive to see.
我可以谈一下OpenAI公布的一些我认为有趣的特性吗？是的，只要你不重复我说过的，因为你没有注意听。但是，好的，我们聊聊这个吧。话说，你提到了那个…，删除了吗？但是你提到了128K的上下文窗口吗？没有，我没有。我没有。我没有。好的。我觉得这挺重要的。这意味着你可以有一个300页的文本提示。是的。我告诉你，几个月前，我在尝试弄清楚，有没有办法我可以把我所有的博客文章放到ChatGPT的提示中，然后把它们变成一本书，例如。这个问题其实挺复杂的，解决起来也挺困难的。还有，像vector DBs这样的完全无用的中间层也不需要存在了。他们现在进展顺利得令人印象深刻。
Yeah. The other thing is multimodal. I mean, so they're really stressing the idea of combining text with photos. I guess videos will eventually come later. Text to speech. But again, having multiple kinds of inputs and outputs for the AI, I think is kind of where- Yeah. And proprietary where you can plug in your own proprietary data sources. I mean, it's just a game changer for a lot of enterprise customers. I think those developers are going to go nuts. I heard a lot of positive feedback from developer folks. I know who attended and sounds like it was very positively received.
是的。另一件事是多模式的。我的意思是，他们非常强调以文字和照片相结合的概念。我猜视频以后可能也会加入。文字转语音。但是，AI拥有多种输入和输出方式，我认为这是一个改变游戏规则的地方。还有专有的插入自己专有数据源的能力。我觉得对很多企业客户来说，这是一个革命性的变化。我听说开发人员们给出了很多积极的反馈意见。我认识一些参加过的开发人员，听起来他们对此非常认可。
Okay. Well, this has been great, Jared. Thank you so much for joining us today. It was really great to spend time together. This is the point in the show where you tell David Sacks that you love him. And he says, right, that catch it.
好的。好吧，Jared，这次真的太棒了，非常感谢你今天的加入。能够和你共度时光真是太棒了。现在是节目中你告诉大卫·萨克斯你爱他的时候了。然后他会回答，对，抓住了。
Guys, I want to say it's ticking 153 episodes. But finally, there's a person that I can say, I'm now the second best looking guy on this pod. So, Jared, thank you for coming. You guys are the best. I'm going to come back more often than I feel happy. I get treated better here than I do in my home. So it's good.
伙计们，我想说这个播客已经连续进行了153集了。但最后终于有个人可以说，现在我是这个节目里第二最帅的家伙了。所以，Jared，谢谢你的到来。你们是最棒的。我以后会更频繁地回来，因为在这里我感到比在家里还开心。所以一切都好。
So, so, yeah, that's so much. Yeah, I'll try to do that together. But thank you guys for having me on. And really, thank you for all the different, you know, important conversations you have. And again, I've met a lot of people who listen to you guys over the time. And they all find that you guys give them a lot of good input into a lot of the issues that are impacting our daily lives. So thank you for the opportunity to be with you.
嗯，嗯，对，那太多了。是的，我会尽力与你们一起做到。非常感谢邀请我来参与。还有，非常感谢你们展开了许多重要的对话。我在这段时间里遇到了很多听你们节目的人。他们都觉得你们对我们日常生活中影响重大的问题提供了许多有益的见解。所以，感谢你们给我这个机会。
Thanks, man. Thanks for being here. Thank you very much. We'll let your winners ride. Rain man, David Satsang. And it said we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with them. Love you guys. I'm sweet. I can fly. Besties are gone.
谢谢，伙计。感谢你在这里。非常感谢你。我们会让你的胜利继续延续下去。雨人，大卫桑滩。并且我们将这些开源给粉丝们，他们对它们已经疯狂迷恋了。爱你们。我很棒。我能飞。挚友们消失了。