Tesla Rated Sell by New Analyst, Presidential UAW Support, Highland Production

Hey everybody Rob Bauer here and today we're going to be talking a little bit about some of the action in Tesla stock today. We've also got updates on Tesla's Highland Model 3, some news on international expansion, and a few other items as well.

大家好，我是罗布·鲍尔，今天我们要稍微谈一下特斯拉股票的一些行动。我们还将更新特斯拉的高地3型车的最新动态，一些关于国际扩张的新闻，以及其他几个项目。

So clearly a tough day for the stock today down about 5.25% closing at $210.50, the NASDAQ down just under 1% on the day, so significant underperformance from Tesla. I do have other automakers pulled up here for GM Rivian Lucid. As we can see a pretty tough day for automakers in general, Tesla in the blue here, and you can see the performance on the day for others.

今天对股票市场来说显然是艰难的一天，特斯拉的股价下跌了约5.25%，收于210.50美元，纳斯达克指数下跌了近1%，所以特斯拉的表现非常糟糕。我这里还可以看到通用汽车、Rivian和Lucid等其他汽车制造商的情况。从整体上来看，汽车制造商们都度过了不太平静的一天，特斯拉在图表上是蓝色的，你可以看到其他公司在当天的表现。

So we do seem to have a bit of sector rotation happening as well, in addition to the broader markets being down, but clearly Tesla is still underperforming even within that group a little bit. We can see even started off a little bit rougher recovering throughout the day, but overall definitely a tougher day for Tesla, probably contributed to by initiation of coverage of Tesla stock by HSBC.

所以，除了整个市场下跌，我们似乎也出现了一些部门轮动，但明显特斯拉在这个群体中表现稍微不佳。我们可以看到特斯拉一开始表现稍微糟糕，但全天逐渐恢复，但整体来看，对特斯拉来说是更艰难的一天，可能是由HSBC开始覆盖特斯拉股票的原因导致的。

This is the biggest bank by assets in Europe, or in the UK, I would have to double check on that one, but pretty significant bank. So their analysts has today initiated coverage of Tesla with a $146 price target and a salary rating on the stock. So an initiation of coverage tends to be a little bit bigger of a deal than maybe a normal analyst note.

这是欧洲或英国资产规模最大的银行，不过我需要再核实一下。它是一家非常重要的银行。因此，他们的分析师今天开始对特斯拉进行了覆盖，给出了146美元的目标价位和股票的良好评级。通常，覆盖报告的发布比一般的分析师笔记更具重要性。

You have price-target adjustments as the lowest level of updates, then you have rating adjustments as maybe the middle, and then initiation probably right alongside that, maybe a little bit more consequence from that. So it is relatively impactful, I would say, probably contributing at the drop today.

你有价格目标调整作为最低级别的更新，然后你有评级调整可能是中间级别的，接着是基于此的启动，也许会有更大的影响。所以相对而言，我会说它相当具有影响力，可能是今天股市下跌的原因之一。

We'll go through a little bit of the details of the note, but this was about a hundred page note, so again more detailed than the average analyst note that you might see, and goes through their reasons for their price target initiation.

我们将详细介绍一些这份笔记的细节，但这是一份约有100页的笔记，比您通常看到的分析师笔记更加详细，并详细解释了他们制定价格目标的原因。

So one of the things they wrote, they say they see considerable potential in Tesla's prospects and ideas, but think the timeline is likely to be longer than the market and valuation is reflecting, hence the reduce or sell rating.

他们写的其中一件事是，他们认为特斯拉的前景和理念具有可观的潜力，但认为实现时间可能比市场和估值所表现出的更长，因此给出了减持或卖出的评级。

Now interestingly, I don't have a full note, but Yahoo Finance does break down a little bit of the value, the components of the valuation, the components of their price target discounted back. So from for how the price target works, they're assigning a present-day value of $146. Or $146 within the next year to their 2030 target or business case for Tesla. And then this breaks down how that business case comes to be.

有趣的是，我没有完全的笔记，但是雅虎财经确实有一些价值的细分，他们对估值的组成部分进行了分解，将其价格目标折现回来。根据价格目标的工作方式，他们将特斯拉在未来一年内的价值确定为146美元。这个价值目标是特斯拉在2030年的目标或商业案例。然后这个目标分解了该商业案例是如何形成的。

So right now they're saying that about 60% of the business or so is coming from businesses that today have sales and profit, which would be selling cars, selling energy storage, things like service. And then a big portion of their price target, as is often the case with analysts, is coming from businesses that are less fully developed and currently don't have sales or profits.

现在他们说，大约60%左右的业务来自今天已经有销售和利润的企业，这些企业包括汽车销售、能源存储和服务等。然后，和分析师们经常一样，他们的目标价值的很大一部分来自尚未完全发展起来、目前没有销售或利润的企业。

So that's about 40% of what they're saying the valuation should be if you discount it back from 2030. So they assign 17% to the Dojo Supercomputer, 14% to fully autonomous vehicles, 12% to Optimus humanoid robots.

那就是说，如果您将其从2030年折算回来，这大约是他们所说的估值的40%。因此，他们将17%的估值分配给城乡超级计算机，14%给全自动驾驶车辆，12%给Optimus人形机器人。

So it is kind of interesting when you look at their price target that it does seem to incorporate some level of valuation for fully autonomous vehicles. You would generally assume that if you're assuming that, sorry to be redundant there, but if your model assumes that fully autonomous vehicles are something that is accomplished, usually that's something that creates a lot of value for the company should be a very high margin, very profitable business for Tesla to be in.

当你看到他们的目标价位时，会发现它似乎包含了对全自动驾驶汽车进行估值的某种程度。通常情况下，如果你假设完全自动驾驶汽车是实现的，那么这通常会给公司创造很大的价值，应该是特斯拉非常高利润、非常有利可图的业务。所以这是相当有趣的。

So having an assumption that that is something that is contributing to Tesla at that point, but is only about 14% of the valuation doesn't really make a lot of sense to me. Unfortunately, I don't have the full note. If anyone does, please pass that along so I can do a little bit deeper dive on that, but just initially kind of looking at that, it seems a little bit odd.

对我来说，假设这是特斯拉在那个时候的贡献，但它只占估值的14%，这并不合理。很不幸，我没有完整的注释。如果有人有，请转给我，这样我可以更深入地研究一下，但仅仅初步看来，这似乎有点奇怪。

They do say that their DCF or the discounted cash flow valuation is generous. Again, because they assume the businesses such as FSD, Dojo and Optimus all become successful by the end of the decade, contributing around that 40% that we're seeing here. So again, you would kind of think that that'd be a little bit more binary, whether it works and is very profitable or doesn't work and doesn't end up contributing much.

他们确实表示，他们的DCF（折现现金流估值）较为慷慨。这也是因为他们假设FSD、Dojo和Optimus等业务在本十年末都能取得成功，贡献了我们在此处看到的大约40%的价值。所以，你可能会觉得这更具有二元性，要么取得成功并且非常有盈利性，要么失败并且贡献不多。

They seem to be leaning somewhere in the middle, but more towards the negative end. They also noted that they view significant risk around Elon Musk, maybe not the normal risk that is often discussed these days, but just in terms of the sort of key man or single man risk that he presents as being such a prominent member and presence of Tesla.

他们似乎倾向于中间某个位置，但更倾向于负面的方向。他们还指出，他们对埃隆·马斯克存在重大风险存有看法，也许不是如今经常讨论的常规风险，而是因为他作为特斯拉的突出成员和存在而带来的关键人物或单一人物风险。

They do say that they also have a bull case. So their bull case does go up to $280 per share, which they have a little bit more market share growth and favorable regulatory environments for things like FSD. So maybe that's part of what's constricting them. Maybe they're just saying that FSD is only going to be very limited in terms of what regions it's able to operate in, which could be something that I guess could be reasonable. But nevertheless, that's kind of the report today. So that likelihood of factor or likelihood and influence on the stock.

他们确实说他们也有一个看涨的观点。所以他们的看涨情况可以达到每股280美元，他们有一点更多的市场份额增长以及对FSD等事项有利的监管环境。所以也许这是限制他们的一部分原因。也许他们只是说FSD只能在一些特定地区运营，这可能是可以理解的。但无论如何，这就是今天的报告。所以这可能会影响股票的可能性因素或影响。

And then we also heard from President Biden, who spoke at UAW event today in Illinois, saying about the contract that the UAW has just reached or the tentative agreements with the big three that he wants this type of contract for all auto workers. And I believe in a response to a question about whether or not he would support the UAW's efforts to unionize Tesla and Toyota workers. He said absolutely. So of course, a lot of headlines around that the president supporting, you know, the quote uni-nization of Tesla and Toyota, although it's more of the efforts to unionize rather than the unionization itself. So certainly those headlines probably not helping all that much today either.

然后我们还听到了拜登总统的讲话，他今天在伊利诺伊州的一次UAW活动上发表了讲话，谈到了UAW刚刚达成的合同或与三大车企达成的初步协议，他希望所有汽车工人都能享受这种类型的合同。我认为这是对于一个问题的回应，该问题是关于他是否支持UAW努力将特斯拉和丰田的工人组织成工会。他说绝对支持。因此，当然会有很多标题报道总统支持特斯拉和丰田工人的“工会化”（虽然实际上更多是关于组织成工会的努力而非工会化本身），所以这些标题可能对今天的情况并没有太多帮助。

On a more positive note, more fun note. We do have updated production numbers. So these came a little bit earlier than I thought they would. As we talked about yesterday, some of the other reports that we've we had gotten previously. Now these full October numbers for China are filled in. So let's jump right to production. 83,500 vehicles. This is the highest production number for gigashang high since the 85,000 figure from April. So really nice to see that. And specifically for the model three, 28,500 vehicles produce. So that's also the highest number since April. And of course, this is after the transition to Highland, which we saw actually really, really strong results in September. Now a continuation of that and even stronger numbers here in October. And also paired with a rebound of a little bit of a dip that we saw on Model Y production in September, likely relating to some of that downtime on the Highland Model three. So really happy to see this production number. It's even probably higher than I think many people would have guessed, especially with the wholesale sales figure being at about 72,000.

更加积极、有趣的是，我们有了更新的生产数字。它们比我预想的要提前一些。正如我们昨天所讨论的那样，我们之前得到了一些其他报告。现在这些有关中国10月份的完整数字已经出来了。所以我们直接来看生产情况吧。共生产了83,500辆汽车。这是自4月份以来特斯拉最高的生产数字，只比那时的85,000辆略少。真的很高兴看到这一点。特别是Model 3，生产了28,500辆车，也是自4月份以来的最高数字。当然，这是在转向弘高后的结果，我们在9月份实际上就看到了非常非常强劲的成绩。现在延续着这个趋势，在10月份取得了更强劲的数字。同时，Model Y的生产也恢复了一些，因为我们在9月份因为弘高Model 3的暂停生产而看到了一点下滑。所以看到这个生产数字真的很高兴，它甚至可能比很多人猜测的要高，特别是批发销售数字约为72,000。

Obviously, we can see that the, you know, the difference between production and wholesale, which I don't cover in the title there, but that's positive 11,000. More vehicles produced than were wholesale sold this month. So that means we should see a pretty good wholesale sales figure next month in November. Hopefully we continue to see pretty strong production here throughout the fourth quarter. Because Tesla's made this transition so incredibly quickly, that should bode well for things like margins because they're going to be able to recapture those economies of scale that, you know, they've achieved through getting production to these levels very quickly despite this transition. So also, of course, means more revenue with more vehicles available to sell. And as the Highland has been priced higher, that is obviously going to benefit Tesla, both from a revenue and a margin perspective. So really exciting to see these Highland numbers and Tesla, you know, continues to look like they've managed this transition phenomenally from Giga Shanghai so far. Hopefully that bodes well for the replication of that in the US as well.

显然，我们可以看到，你知道的，生产和批发之间的差异，虽然标题中没有涉及，但增加了11000台，这个月的生产量超过了批发销售量。因此，下个月11月的批发销售数据应该会相当不错。希望在第四季度期间，我们能继续看到相当强劲的生产情况。由于特斯拉非常快速地完成了这个转型，这对于诸如利润率之类的事情应该是有好处的，因为他们将能够重新获得那些通过快速完成转型而实现的规模经济。当然，这也意味着有更多的可供销售的车辆，从而带来更多的收入。而且随着Highland定价更高，这显然会对特斯拉有益，无论是从收入还是利润的角度来看。看到这些Highland的数字真是令人兴奋，特斯拉对于迄今为止如何管理这个来自上海超级工厂的转型看起来非常出色。希望这也能为他们在美国的复制过程带来好兆头。

And if we look at the export and retail or domestic sales breakdowns, you can see not many Model 3 sold in October, maybe just a few there towards the end of the month once Tesla started those Highland deliveries, but only 2,200 for October domestically. However, about 22,500 Model 3 is exported, which again, you can see is a high sense, a high for Model 3 exports since actually last October. So of course, big batches of Highland being shipped out to Europe, driving that number there. So overall pretty exciting updates there for Giga Shanghai and for the transition to Highland.

如果我们看一下出口和零售或国内销售的细分情况，可以看到10月份Model 3销量不多，可能在月底特斯拉开始进行高地交付时才出现了一些销售，国内销量仅有2200辆。然而，大约有22,500辆Model 3被出口，可以看出这是Model 3出口自去年10月以来的最高点。因此，当然有很多批次的高地被运往欧洲，推动了那里的销量。所以总的来说，这对于上海超级工厂和向高地的过渡来说是非常令人振奋的更新。

And then we've also got an update on a story that we have talked about previously, which was Tesla taking some steps to begin operations in Chile as Bloomberg reports here. We talked previously about a linked or a job posting from Tesla for a general manager position in Chile. They have added a couple more job listings, one for a technician, I believe, and one for an advisor. So Bloomberg today reporting that Tesla is actually registered for a company in Chile, the Tesla Chile SBA, according to the Chile official Gazette back in September. So they say the unit can carry out activities such as the sale and fabrication of cars and those related to generation of energy and electricity. So you know, Tesla's core business that we see them do. The headline from Bloomberg kind of connected to lithium as Chile has the world's largest lithium reserves. So maybe Tesla wouldn't have some plans along those lines at some point. But right now the entity seems more created for general business and sale of Tesla's products. So I think that also fits a little bit better with the job listings that we have seen. But nevertheless, this would be a really big first step for Tesla in South America.

然后我们还有一个关于之前我们已经谈论过的故事的更新，即特斯拉采取一些措施在智利开始运营。根据彭博社报道，我们之前谈到过特斯拉在智利招聘了一位总经理职位的链接或工作职位。他们新增了几个工作职位，一个是技术员，一个是顾问。彭博社今天报道说，特斯拉实际上在智利注册了一家公司，即特斯拉智利SBA，根据智利官方公报于九月份发布。所以他们说这个单元可以从事包括销售和制造汽车以及与能源和电力的生产相关的活动。所以你知道，这是特斯拉的核心业务，我们看到他们在做的事情。彭博社的标题与锂有关，因为智利拥有世界上最大的锂储量。所以也许特斯拉在某个时候会有一些相关计划。但现在，这个实体似乎更多地是为了一般业务和特斯拉产品的销售而创建的。所以我认为这也更符合我们所看到的工作职位。但无论如何，这对特斯拉在南美洲来说将是一个非常重要的第一步。

And we also had Elon Musk appear on the Lex Friedman podcast today. So from the timestamps, you can kind of just see, I'll just kind of scroll through them. But a lot of stuff, not necessarily related to Tesla and no surprise, this being the fourth time, Elon has been on Lex's podcast. But a lot of stuff about XAI and Groc, they spent some time just kind of looking at some interesting things with that was kind of fun to watch. Specifically to Tesla, if you do want to kind of just focus in on that, I would say that that conversation started maybe around one hour and 49 minute timestamp. They talk a little bit about short selling and the settlement, the SEC, things of that nature, retail investors, not anything that most of us haven't heard before. So we don't need to spend a ton of time recapping this. But kind of that one hour and 49 minute timestamp and maybe two hours and four minute timestamp that kind of continue. So they did talk a little bit about, of course, since they spent some time with XAI and Groc, the convergence that seems to be kind of happening in terms of at least structural setup for FSD, as we see shifting to entirely neural networks with version 12 and large language models and the development that of course we have seen there. So Lex kind of posed the question of if there's convergence happening and Elon said that, yes, he thinks there is. He still feels confident that he said it still appears that hardware three should be able to eventually drive vehicles in a way that is a period of humans on 50 to 100 Watts of power alone. So talked about how hardware four and eventually hardware five will do things better and make a little bit make things a little bit easier for Tesla, but still confident in hardware three. And then he gave a quick update on optimists saying that the target for them or kind of the target in Elon's mind is can optimists pick up a needle and a thread just by looking at the two items and then thread the needle with the thread. So he said that that's maybe a year away, but they did talk previously. They had asked Groc how things that he wanted gotten wrong and it laid out some timelines that he wanted it not quite delivered on in terms of his expectations. So he brought that up again and said as a reminder, he can be optimistic at times, no surprise to any of us. But he did note that optimists will figure things out just by watching videos. So as opposed to sort of maybe requiring a first person point of view for training on different scenarios, it sounds like he's optimistic that maybe that could be something that is maybe third person. I guess you could still have first person videos, but that was the comment there. So if you do want to check that video out or that interview out that link for that is in the description.

今天，埃隆·马斯克也出现在了莱克斯·弗里德曼的播客节目中。所以从时间戳上看，你可以看到一些内容，我会简单浏览一下。但很多内容与特斯拉无关的，这并不令人惊讶，这已经是埃隆第四次参加莱克斯的播客节目了。但他们花了一些时间探讨了XAI和Groc等有趣的事情，观看起来还挺有趣的。具体到特斯拉，如果你想重点关注，我会说那次谈话大约开始于一个小时和49分钟的时间戳。他们谈到了一些关于做空和解决方案、证券交易委员会等方面的内容，以及普通零售投资者，这些我们大多数人都听过，所以我们不需要花太多时间去回顾这些。大概在一个小时49分钟的时间戳和两个小时四分钟的时间戳之间还有一些相关内容。他们确实谈到了，因为他们花了一些时间研究XAI和Groc，特斯拉的结构设置在完全神经网络和版本12上似乎正在发生收敛，以及大型语言模型的发展。Lex提出了一个问题，问是否正在发生收敛，埃隆表示，是的，他认为正在发生收敛。他仍然相信硬件三最终能够像人类一样驾驶车辆，只靠50到100瓦的电力就足够了。他谈到了硬件四和最终的硬件五会做得更好，为特斯拉带来一些便利，但他对硬件三仍然有信心。然后他快速更新了一下关于optimists的情况，他的目标是optimists能够通过看两个物品，直接用眼睛看到针和线，并用线穿过针眼。他说这可能还需要一年的时间，但他们之前已经讨论过。他们曾经问过Groc他希望在哪个时间点做到某些事情，但他的期望没有完全实现。所以他再次提到了这一点，并表示要提醒大家，他有时会很乐观，这对我们来说并不意外。但他确实指出，通过观看视频，optimists可以解决问题。与需要第一人称观点来训练不同情景的情况相比，他乐观地认为这可能是第三人称。我想你如果想查看这个视频或采访，链接在描述中。

And then just a couple more quick tests of things today. We did have a recall posted from NHTSA. This is for only 160 Model or Model S and X vehicles. Basically there is a different airbag design for steering wheel versus yoke. So some customers that had a steering wheel retrofitted, they just need to go and check and make sure that they have the correct airbag version and they'll swap that out, if not so pretty small, but this is a physical recall for some of those vehicles.

今天只需进行几项快速测试。我们确实收到了NHTSA发布的召回通知。此次召回仅涉及160辆Model或Model S和X车型。基本上，方向盘和操纵杆的气囊设计有所不同。因此，部分安装了方向盘改装件的客户需要进行检查，确保其具备正确的气囊版本，如果不正确则进行更换。尽管范围相对较小，但这是对某些车辆的物理召回。

And then I did want to make a quick correction. I think yesterday a couple commenters mentioned that when I was talking about tow rating, I may I may have said 1100 pounds. It's probably looking at the max tongue here. That would of course be 11,000 rather than 1100 as we can see on this if these aren't do end up being correct.

然后我想迅速纠正一下。我想昨天有几位评论者提到，在我谈论拖车能力时，我可能说了1100磅。这可能是因为我在看最大牵引力而不是1100磅，如我们可以看到的，如果这些数据最终是正确的话，那当然应该是11000磅。

And then local one for me here, Tesla is going to be opening up a or it looks like they're going to be opening up a service center, pretty significant size one near Chicago or in Chicago, near the southwest corner of the loop. And this will be roughly a 100,000 square foot facility. So very sizable possible new service center for Tesla in Chicago.

然后就在我这里的当地，特斯拉公司将要开设一个服务中心，看起来他们将要在芝加哥附近或者在芝加哥附近的西南角落开设一个相当大的服务中心。这个中心将会有大约10万平方英尺的面积，是特斯拉在芝加哥可能新建的一个相当大的服务中心。

Then we do have an update from Polestar. They held kind of an investor day and updated some of their targets, not really an investor day, but talked about some of their investor targets for some of the out years. So I don't know if they've updated their longer term guidance since their IPO, but they did update that to four 2025. Now they're expecting to deliver about 155, 165,000 vehicles or so that year. That is a pretty significant decline from what they thought at IPO, which wasn't too long ago of about 290,000 vehicles that year. So pretty significant drop there. They also lowered their expectations to the lower end of the guidance for this year.

然后我们从极星（Polestar）这里有了一项更新。他们举办了一种类似于投资者日的活动，并对一些目标进行了更新，虽然不完全是投资者日，但谈到了未来几年的一些投资者目标。所以我不知道他们是否更新了自IPO以来的长期指引，但他们确实将2025年的目标下调了。现在他们预计在那一年交付约15.5-16.5万辆车。这相对于他们在IPO时预计的约29万辆车来说，是一个相当大的下降。所以下降还是相当显著的。他们还将今年的预期下调到了指引的下限。

And then Volkswagen is also pause production at there's VICAL plans, producing the ID for and a couple of their other electric vehicles. They say due to a shortage of electric motors. So kind of the second pause that we have seen from folks wagon on EV production in, I would say probably probably within the last quarter. So interesting to see that, but of course they talk about that being supply related.

然后大众汽车还暂停了他们在VICAL计划中的生产，生产ID和其他几款电动汽车。他们称这是由于电动马达短缺所致。这已经是我们在电动汽车生产上看到的大众汽车的第二次停工，可能是在最后一个季度内。很有趣的是，他们提到这是与供应有关。

And then lastly, we got a Starship or SpaceX update today. Looks like SpaceX has begun the installation of the flight termination system for the second test flight for Starship. I can see this photo of these people going out to get that set up. Usually that means it's going to be pretty close. So got to be on the lookout, you know, very closely, not that we haven't been, but should be really, really close now to the second test flight for Starship. Could be next week. We're looking at maybe November 15th as a possible date there. But obviously things can change, but we'll keep an eye on that.

然后最后，我们今天得到了一则有关Starship或SpaceX的更新。看起来，SpaceX已经开始为Starship的第二次测试飞行安装飞行终止系统。我可以看到这张照片中的人们正在走出去进行设置。通常情况下，这意味着将要开始飞行。所以我们要密切关注，你知道的，非常密切地关注，虽然我们之前也一直在关注，但现在应该真的非常接近第二次测试飞行了。可能会在下周进行，我们正在考虑11月15日作为可能的日期。但显然事情可能会变化，但我们会继续关注。

Hopefully full FAA approval has either already happened and just needs to be announced or we'll see that happen very soon. Because obviously you probably don't want to install what these things will potentially do until that is ready.

希望FAA已经完全批准，只需要宣布一下，或者我们很快就会看到这一点。因为显然，你可能不希望在准备就绪之前安装这些事物可能会引发的问题。

All right, that'll wrap it up for today though. So as always, thank you for listening. Make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications. You can also find me on X at Tesla podcast. And we'll see you tomorrow for the Friday, November 10th episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.

好的，今天的节目就到这里了。所以像往常一样，感谢您的收听。请确保您已经订阅并开启了通知。您也可以在X上找到我，我在Tesla podcast。明天我们将在11月10日星期五的Tesla Daily节目中再见。谢谢。